Tag Archives: Virginia Lt Gov Ralph Northam

Northam and other Democrats lead in 10/27/17 Virginia Poll….

Except for two polls last week?

Democratic candidate Lt. Governor Ralph Northam leads Republican Ed Gillespie by more than the polls margin of errors…..

The race has given Democrats a bit of worry…But it does appear that Northam is on the way to a Governors office win in two weeks…

The Realclearpolitics average margin for Northam continues to have Northam ahead overall….

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Democratic candidate Ralph Northam secured his lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia gubernatorial race, officially earning 50% approval to his opponent’s 43%, according to a poll released today by the Wason Center for Public Policy.

Democrats were sweating earlier this week when polls showed Northam leading by just 4% and a previous poll showed him leading, though there were many undecided voters. A loss for Northam could trigger a similar Bernie vs. Hillary split we saw during the 2016 election, as Northam beat Bernie Sanders-backed primary challenger Tom Perriello.

Battle lines: While Gillespie leads among white voters, the poll finds Northam leads among young and old, women and men, and African-American voters. ….

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image of Gillespie and Northam…NYPost>com

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On that One poll that shows GOPer’s Gillispie ahead in the Virginia Governors race…….

It’s just one poll….

No other poll has  Republican Ed Gillespie ahead….

Democrat Ralph Northam is shown up 14  and 7 percentage points in the latest polling…

A Monmouth University poll released Tuesday generated a ton of headlines. It found Republican Ed Gillespie leading the Virginia gubernatorial race by 1 percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent. Democrat Ralph Northam has led in most surveys of the race, and if Republicans win Virginia with President Trump so unpopular, you can expect a full-blown freakout among Democrats. Adding to the confusion: Quinnipiac University released a poll on Wednesday showing Northam up 14 percentage points, 53 percent to 39 percent.

So what the heck is going on in the Virginia governor’s race? Nothing. The split between the Monmouth and Quinnipiac results is big, but it’s not unnatural. In fact, it’s a sign that pollsters are doing their job.

Polling averages work best when pollsters are working independently. You have different pollsters using different methods and making different estimates of the electorate, and you get a more accurate picture of the race by averaging their results together than by looking at any individual poll. It’s kind of like the old “wisdom of the crowd” principle.

That doesn’t work if pollsters “herd” — which my colleague Nate Silver defined as “the tendency of polling firms to produce results that closely match one another.” When pollsters release results that are closer to each other than is statistically plausible, it may make individual polls more accurate, but it makes the average less so. That is, there should be a big spread among polls of the same race. Unfortunately, herding happens, particularly as Election Day approaches.

But it doesn’t seem be happening in Virginia. The October average of Virginia gubernatorial surveys has Northam leading Gillespie by 7 percentage points, 50 percent to 43 percent….

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Pence and Biden visit Virginia to stump for their parties Virginia Governor candidates…

Polling still shows Democrat Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie…

The current and former vice presidents swooped into the Virginia governor’s race Saturday, with Vice President Mike Pence rallying for Republican Ed Gillespie in the state’s Trump-loving Southwest and Joe Biden hosting a low-key economic development roundtable for Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam in vote-rich Northern Virginia.

The events came with just over three weeks to go in one of the most closely watched statewide elections of 2017, highlighting the candidates’ paths to victory as their parties push for a win to herald ahead of next year’s midterm elections.

The two events could hardly have been more different. Northam and Biden campaigned before a crowd of about 100 in a co-working space on the 8th floor of a building in a mixed-use development in Reston, where two-thirds of adults have a college degree and the median household income tops $110,000. They bypassed political red meat and instead discussed Northam’s economic policies.

Pence, meanwhile, traveled to the Washington County fairgrounds, one of the few politically safe regions of the state to bring a Trump administration official. His rally with Gillespie in Abingdon, where the Republican presidential ticket took home 75 percent of the county vote, was expressly political. Pence repeatedly attacked Northam in front of the crowd of 400 people….

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