Tag Archives: Updates DSD @ Politicaldog101

BBC’s UK Final Polls …June 2017 Election….

Courtesy DSD….

FiveThirty Eight is VERY cautious on the polling….

Which seems all over the place and has been unreliable in the past….

Latest updates from senior BBC elections and political analyst Peter Barnes

7 June: Final polls

Nearly all the final polls are now out. Ipsos MORI will publish on Thursday and ICM are expected to update their preliminary figures from earlier today. Apart from that, we’re there. What should we take from them?
• First, it’s worth making the obvious point that every single poll throughout the campaign has put the Conservative Party ahead. If Labour receives more votes tomorrow it will be a bigger polling failure than in 2015.
• Second, the range of vote shares for the parties in polls published on Tuesday and Wednesday are CON 41-46%, LAB 34-40%, LD 7-10%, and UKIP 2-5%. Not all the polls separate out the SNP, Plaid Cymru or Green Party.
We’ve looked a lot at the gap between the two top parties – arguably too much. But the polls suggest it could be anywhere between a one and 12-point Conservative lead, with Survation suggesting the closest result.
That suggests anything from a small swing to Labour to a 2-3% swing to the Conservatives. And it’s doubly difficult to estimate how that could play out in terms of the number of seats each party wins. So much will depend on variations in different parts of the country and in different types of constituency. There could be no national swing between Conservatives and Labour but still a significant shift in seats.
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll will be published at 10pm on Thursday, when polls close. It would be an understatement to say it’s eagerly awaited.

Scotland and Wales

• The final polls in Scotland suggest a fairly settled picture – although there have only been seven of them during the whole campaign so there’s not much to go on. The SNP are clearly out in front on 40% or a little higher. The Conservatives and Labour are in a battle for second place at around 25%, perhaps with the Conservatives’ ahead by a nose.
That would represent a significant shift from the actual 2015 result of SNP 50%, LAB 43%, CON 15%.
• In Wales, YouGov are the only company to have produced polls throughout the campaign so we have even less evidence. Their last, released on Wednesday, showed little change from the previous two. Labour remain on 46% and the Conservatives fall back one point to 34%. Plaid Cymru are on 9% with both the Lib Dems and UKIP on 5%.
That implies a modest swing to Labour with UKIP losing well over half their 2015 votes.

Source….

U.K. General election 2017: Voters to go to the polls

Millions of people will be casting their vote in the UK general election later.
Polls open at 07:00 BST (= 2 a.m. EDT/11 p.m. PDT) at more than 40,000 polling stations across the country, with counting starting once voting ends at 22:00 BST (= 5 p.m. EDT/2 p.m. PDT).
A total of 650 Westminster MPs will be elected, with about 46.9 million people registered to vote.
That is up from the last general election, in 2015, when there were 46.4 million registered voters.

Some votes have already been cast, through postal voting, which accounted for 16.4% of the total electorate at the 2015 general election.
Overall turnout in 2015, when the Conservatives won 331 out of 650 seats, was 66.4%, up from 2010….

More…

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Confirmed Trump Admin picks as of Feb. 10, 2017….

…from DSD….

My hurried glance suggests that nearly half of the President’s 24-member Cabinet have already been confirmed.

Some, like Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, do not need Senate confirmation

My list (* indicates Cabinet members who are neither Vice President nor Secretary of one of the 15 Cabinet Departments)

Order is that of cabinet status for the Dept’s oldest element (e.g. War) and current order of precedence.

Vice President– Mike Pence (needs no Senate confirmation)

State – Rex Tillerson (Feb. 1st, 56-43)
* UN Amb. – Nikki Haley (Jan. 24th, 96-4)
Defense – James Mattis (Jan. 20th, 98-1)
Atty- Gen. – Jeff Sessions (Feb 8th, 52-47)
HHS – Tom Price (Feb 10th, 52-47)
Transportation – Elaine Chao (Jan. 31st, 93 -6)
Education – Betsy DeVos (Feb. 7th, VP + 50-50)
Homeland Security – John Kelly (Jan. 20th, 88-11

* CIA – Mike Pompeo (Jan. 23rd, 66-32)

* Chief of Staff – Reince Priebus (needs no Senate confirmation)

Still awaiting Senate consideration:

Treasury – Steve Mnuchin
Interior – Ryan Zinke
Commerce – Wilbur Ross
Labor – Andy Puzder
HUD – Dr Ben Carson
Energy – Rick Perry
Veterans’ Affairs – Dr David Shulkin

Agriculture – Sonny Perdue

* Special Trade Representative – Robert Lighthizer
* EPA – Scott Pruitt
* Small Business Admin. – Linda McMahon
* National Security Advisor – Mike Flynn (does  not need Senate confirmation)
* DNI – Dan Coats

Ultimate Sources: U.S. Senate and the White House

NOTE….

I should take the time to remind people that VERY FEW Presidential cabinet people keep their jobs thru a Presiudent’s whole time in office….

The same I suspect will be true for this President….

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Trump Administration Updated picks as of Jan. 4, 2017

The new list, as of 2:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday 4 January:

Department of State
Secretary – Rex Tillerson
Ambassador to the United Nations – Nikki Haley
Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China – Terry Branstad
Ambassador to the State of Israel – David Friedman
Special Trade Representative – Robert Lighthizer
Special Representative for International Negotiatons – Jason Greenblatt

Department of the Treasury
Secretary – Steven Mnuchin

Department of Defense
Secretary of Defense – Gen. James Mattis
Secretary of the Army – Vincent Viola
Secretary of the Navy – ??
Secretary of the Air Force – ??

Department of Justice
Attorney-General of the U.S. – Jeff Sessions
Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (fixed-term) – James Comey
Director of the Drug Enforcement Administration – ??

Department of the Interior
Secretary – Ryan Zinke
National Park Service – ??
Bureau of Indian Affairs – ??
Bureau of Land Management – ??

Department of Agriculture
??

Department of Commerce
Secretary – Wilbur Ross
Deputy Secretary – Todd Ricketts

Department of Labor
Secretary – Andy Puzder

Department of Health & Human Services
Secretary – Tom Price
Administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services – Seema Verma
Commissioner of Food and Drugs (FDA) – ??
Surgeon-General of the U.S. – ??

Department of Housing & Urban Development
Secretary – Dr Ben Carson

Department of Transportation
Secretary – Elaine Chao

Department of Energy
Secretary – Rick Perry

Department of Education
Secretary – Betsy DeVos

Department of Veterans’ Affairs
??

Department of Homeland Security
Secretary – Gen. James Kelley
Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency – ??

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Office of the President
Chief of Staff – Reince Priebus
Deputy Chief of Staff – Katie Walsh
Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations – Joe Haglin
Legislative Affairs, Intergovernmental Affairs & Cabinet Affairs – Rick Dearborn
Chief Strategist – Steve Bannon
Counsel to the President – Donald F. McGahn II
Counselor to the President – Kellyanne Conway
Special Advisor on Regulatory Reform – Carl Icahn

Presidential communications staff
Press Secretary – Sean Spicer
Director of Strategic Communicatons – Hope Hicks
Director of Communications – Jason Miller (withdrew)
Director of Social Media – Dan Scavino

National Security Council
National Security Advisor – Gen. Michael Flynn
Deputy National Security Advisor – Kathleen T. McFarland
Chief of Staff – Lt Gen. Keith Kellogg
Senior Director of Strategic Communications – Monica Crowley

Homeland Security & Counterterrorism Advisor
Special Assistant to the President – Thomas Bossert

Director of National Intelligence – (Dan Coats?)
Director – ??
Director of the Central Intelligence Agency – Mike Pompeo

Office of Management & Budget
Director – Mick Mulvaney

National Economic Council
Chairman – Gary Cohn

National Trade Council (new)
Chairman – Peter Navarro

Council of Economic Advisors
Chairman – ??

Environmental Protection Agency
Administrator – Scott Pruitt

Small Business Administration
Administrator – Linda McMahon

Securities & Exchange Commission
Chairman – Jay Clayton

Note….

Cabinet Secretaries and some others will need US Senate confirmation …..

Courtesy of DSD….

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Trump Administration Updated picks as of Jan. 3, 2017

List revised and updated to 8 p.m. Tuesday 3 January 2017:

Department of State 
Secretary – Rex Tillerson
Ambassador to the United Nations – Nikki Haley
Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China – Terry Branstad
Ambassador to the State of Israel – David Friedman
Special Trade Representative – Robert Lightizer
Special Representative for International Negotiatons – Jason Greenblatt

Department of the Treasury 
Secretary – Steven Mnuchin

 Department of Defense 
Secretary of Defense – Gen. James Mattis
Secretary of the Army – Vincent Viola
Secretary of the Navy – ??
Secretary of the Air Force – ??

Department of Justice 
Attorney-General of the U.S. – Jeff Sessions
Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (fixed-term) – James Comey
Director of the Drug Enforcement Administration – ??

 Department of the Interior 
Secretary – Ryan Zinke
National Park Service – ??
Bureau of Indian Affairs – ??
Bureau of Land Management – ??

Department of Agriculture 
??

 Department of Commerce 
Secretary – Wilbur Ross
Deputy Secretary – Todd Ricketts

Department of Labor 
Secretary – Andy Puzder

 Department of Health & Human Services 
Secretary – Tom Price
Administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services – Seema Verma
Commissioner of Food and Drugs (FDA) – ??
Surgeon-General of the U.S. – ??

 Department of Housing & Urban Development 
Secretary – Dr Ben Carson

 Department of Transportation 
Secretary – Elaine Chao

 Department of Energy 
Secretary – Rick Perry

 Department of Education 
Secretary – Betsy DeVos

Department of Veterans’ Affairs 
??

 Department of Homeland Security 
Secretary – Gen. James Kelley
Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency – ??

 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 

Office of the President 
Chief of Staff – Reince Priebus
Chief Strategist – Steve Bannon
Counsel to the President – Donald F. McGahn II
Counselor to the President – Kellyanne Conway
Special Advisor on Regulatory Reform – Carl Icahn

Presidential communications staff 
Press Secretary – Sean Spicer
Director of Strategic Communicatons – Hope Hicks
Director of Communications – Jason Miller
Director of Social Media – Dan Scavino

 National Security Council 
National Security Advisor – Gen. Michael Flynn
Deputy National Security Advisor – Kathleen T. McFarland
Chief of Staff – Lt Gen. Keith Kellogg
Senior Director of Strategic Communications – Monica Crowley

 Homeland Security & Counterterrorism Advisor
Special Assistant to the President – Thomas Bossert

Director of National Intelligence 
Director – ??
Director of the Central Intelligence Agency – Mike Pompeo

 Office of Management & Budget 
Director – Mick Mulvaney

 National Economic Council 
Chairman – Gary Cohn

National Trade Council (new)
Chairman – Peter Navarro

 Council of Economic Advisors 
Chairman – ??

 Environmental Protection Agency 
Administrator – Scott Pruitt

 Small Business Administration 
Administrator – Linda McMahon

Note….

Cabinet Secretaries and some others will need US Senate confirmation …..

Courtesy of DSD…..

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Trump Administration Updated picks as of Dec.23, 2016

List revised and updated to 1 a.m. Friday 23 December 2016:

Department of State
Secretary – Rex Tillerson
Ambassador to the United Nations – Nikki Haley
Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China – Terry Branstad
Ambassador to the State of Israel – David Friedman
Special Trade Representative – ??

Department of the Treasury
Secretary – Steven Mnuchin

Department of Defense
Secretary of Defense – Gen. James Mattis
Secretary of the Army – Vincent Viola
Secretary of the Navy – ??
Secretary of the Air Force – ??

Department of Justice
Attorney-General of the U.S. – Jeff Sessions
Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (fixed-term) – James Comey
Director of the Drug Enforcement Administration – ??

Department of the Interior
Secretary – Ryan Zinke
National Park Service – ??
Bureau of Indian Affairs – ??
Bureau of Land Management – ??

Department of Agriculture
??

Department of Commerce
Secretary – Wilbur Ross
Deputy Secretary – Todd Ricketts

Department of Labor
Secretary – Andy Puzder

Department of Health & Human Services
Secretary – Tom Price
Administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services – Seema Verma
Commissioner of Food and Drugs (FDA) –
Surgeon-General of the U.S. – ??

Department of Housing & Urban Development
Secretary – Dr Ben Carson

Department of Transportation
Secretary – Elaine Chao

Department of Energy
Secretary – Rick Perry

Department of Education
Secretary – Betsy DeVos

Department of Veterans’ Affairs
??

Department of Homeland Security
Secretary – Gen. James Kelley
Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency – ??

Office of the President
Chief of Staff – Reince Priebus
Chief Strategist – Steve Bannon
Counsel to the President – Donald F. McGahn II
Counselor to the President – Kellyanne Conway
Special Advisor on Regulatory Reform – Carl Icahn

Press Secretary – Sean Spicer
Director of Strategic Communications – Hope Hicks
Director of Communications – Jason Miller  
Director of Social Media – Dan Scavino

National Security Council
National Security Advisor – Gen. Michael Flynn
Deputy National Security Advisor – Kathleen T. McFarland
Chief of Staff – Lt Gen. Keith Kellogg
Sr Director of Strategic Communications – Monica Crowley

Director of National Intelligence
Director – ??
Director of the Central Intelligence Agency – Mike Pompeo

Office of Management & Budget
Director – Mick Mulvaney

National Economic Council
Chairman – Gary Cohn

National Trade Council (new)
Chairman – Peter Navarro

Council of Economic Advisors
Chairman – ??

Environmental Protection Agency
Administrator – Scott Pruitt

Small Business Administration
Administrator – Linda McMahon

Note….

Cabinet Secretaries  and some others will need US Senate confirmation …..

Courtesy of DSD…..

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Trump Administration Updated picks…Dec. 17, 2016…

Revised and enhanced list of Team Trump
(as of Saturday morning 17 December 2016)

Department of State
Secretary – Rex Tillerson
Ambassador to the United Nations – Nikki Haley
Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China – Terry Branstad
Ambassador to the State of Israel – David Friedman
Special Trade Representative –

Department of the Treasury
Secretary – Steven Mnuchin

Department of Defense
Secretary – Gen. James Mattis

Department of Justice
Attorney-General of the U.S. – Jeff Sessions
Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (fixed-term) – James Comey
Director of the Drug Enforcement Administration – ??

Department of the Interior
Secretary – Ryan Zinke
National Park Service –
Bureau of Indian Affairs –
Bureau of Land Management –

Department of Agriculture

Department of Commerce
Secretary – Wilbur Ross
Deputy Secretary – Todd Ricketts

Department of Labor
Secretary – Andy Puzder

Department of Health & Human Services
Secretary – Tom Price
Administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services – Seema Verma
Commissioner of Food and Drugs (FDA) –

Department of Housing & Urban Development
Secretary – Dr Ben Carson

Department of Transportation
Secretary – Elaine Chao

Department of Energy
Secretary – Rick Perry

Department of Education
Secretary – Betsy DeVos

Department of Veterans’ Affairs

Department of Homeland Security
Secretary – Gen. James Kelley
Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency – ??

Office of the President
Chief of Staff – Reince Priebus
Chief Strategist – Steve Bannon
Counsel to the President – Donald F. McGahn II

National Security Council
National Security Advisor – Gen. Michael Flynn
Deputy National Security Advisor – Kathleen T. McFarland
Chief of Staff – Lt Gen. Keith Kellogg
Senior Director of Strategic Communications – Monica Crowley

Director of National Intelligence
Director – ??
Director of the Central Intelligence Agency – Mike Pompeo

Office of Management & Budget
Director – Mick Mulvaney

National Economic Council
Chairman – Gary Cohn

Council of Economic Advisors
Chairman – ??

Environmental Protection Agency
Administrator – Scott Pruitt

Small Business Administration
Administrator – Linda McMahon

Courtesy of DSD…..

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Trump Administration Updated picks…Dec. 14, 2016

As noted by Stephen Colbert last night, Rick Perry has now been nominated to run the agency he forgot when listing in debate the three he wanted to abolish (“Education, Commerce and… and … Oops!”)

By my count this leaves just 3 out of 15 Cabinet departments without a Secretary (sorry [how PI can a sexist classist snob get !]… Administrative Professional):

Agriculture
Veterans’ Affairs

(I dread to think what anti-green advocates of special interests will get the first two jobs; will T.R. and Gifford Pinchot rest easy in their graves ? how much public land will be given away, strip-mined or clear-cut ? Who will be Chief Ranger of the U.S. responsible for the Natl Park Service ? What gambling stooge will run the Bureau of Indian Affairs?)

Also some significant Executive Department jobs, including:

Director of National Intelligence
Director of OMB
Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (when Janet Yellen’s job comes up)

Department of State
Secretary – Rex Tillerson
Ambassador to the United Nations – Nikki Haley
Ambassador to the People’s Republic of China – Terry Branstad
Special Trade Representative –

Department of the Treasury
Secretary – Steven Mnuchin

Department of Defense
Secretary – Gen. James Mattis

Department of Justice
Attorney-General of the U.S. – Jeff Sessions
Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (fixed-term) – James Comey
Director of the Drug Enforcement Administration – ??

Department of the Interior

Ryan Zinke

Department of Agriculture

Department of Commerce
Secretary – Wilbur Ross
Deputy Secretary – Todd Ricketts

Department of Labor
Secretary – Andy Puzder

Department of Health & Human Services
Secretary – Tom Price
Administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services – Seema Verma

Department of Housing & Urban Development
Secretary – Dr Ben Carson

Department of Transportation
Secretary – Elaine Chao

Department of Energy
Secretary – Rick Perry

Department of Education
Secretary – Betsy DeVos

Department of Veterans’ Affairs

Department of Homeland Security
Secretary – Gen. James Kelley
Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency – ??

Office of the President
Chief of Staff – Reince Priebus
Chief Strategist – Steve Bannon
Counsel to the President – Donald F. McGahn II

National Security Council
National Security Advisor – Gen. Michael Flynn
Deputy National Security Advisor – Kathleen T. McFarland

Director of National Intelligence
Director – ??
Director of the Central Intelligence Agency – Mike Pompeo

Office of Management & Budget
Director – ??

National Economic Council
Chairman – Gary Cohn

Council of Economic Advisors
Chairman – ??

Environmental Protection Agency
Administrator – Scott Pruitt

Small Business Administration
Administrator – Linda McMahon

Courtesy of DSD…..

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