FiveThirty Eight is VERY cautious on the polling….
Which seems all over the place and has been unreliable in the past….
Latest updates from senior BBC elections and political analyst Peter Barnes
7 June: Final polls
Nearly all the final polls are now out. Ipsos MORI will publish on Thursday and ICM are expected to update their preliminary figures from earlier today. Apart from that, we’re there. What should we take from them?
• First, it’s worth making the obvious point that every single poll throughout the campaign has put the Conservative Party ahead. If Labour receives more votes tomorrow it will be a bigger polling failure than in 2015.
• Second, the range of vote shares for the parties in polls published on Tuesday and Wednesday are CON 41-46%, LAB 34-40%, LD 7-10%, and UKIP 2-5%. Not all the polls separate out the SNP, Plaid Cymru or Green Party.
We’ve looked a lot at the gap between the two top parties – arguably too much. But the polls suggest it could be anywhere between a one and 12-point Conservative lead, with Survation suggesting the closest result.
That suggests anything from a small swing to Labour to a 2-3% swing to the Conservatives. And it’s doubly difficult to estimate how that could play out in terms of the number of seats each party wins. So much will depend on variations in different parts of the country and in different types of constituency. There could be no national swing between Conservatives and Labour but still a significant shift in seats.
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll will be published at 10pm on Thursday, when polls close. It would be an understatement to say it’s eagerly awaited.
Scotland and Wales
• The final polls in Scotland suggest a fairly settled picture – although there have only been seven of them during the whole campaign so there’s not much to go on. The SNP are clearly out in front on 40% or a little higher. The Conservatives and Labour are in a battle for second place at around 25%, perhaps with the Conservatives’ ahead by a nose.
That would represent a significant shift from the actual 2015 result of SNP 50%, LAB 43%, CON 15%.
• In Wales, YouGov are the only company to have produced polls throughout the campaign so we have even less evidence. Their last, released on Wednesday, showed little change from the previous two. Labour remain on 46% and the Conservatives fall back one point to 34%. Plaid Cymru are on 9% with both the Lib Dems and UKIP on 5%.
That implies a modest swing to Labour with UKIP losing well over half their 2015 votes.
U.K. General election 2017: Voters to go to the polls
Millions of people will be casting their vote in the UK general election later.
Polls open at 07:00 BST (= 2 a.m. EDT/11 p.m. PDT) at more than 40,000 polling stations across the country, with counting starting once voting ends at 22:00 BST (= 5 p.m. EDT/2 p.m. PDT).
A total of 650 Westminster MPs will be elected, with about 46.9 million people registered to vote.
That is up from the last general election, in 2015, when there were 46.4 million registered voters.
Some votes have already been cast, through postal voting, which accounted for 16.4% of the total electorate at the 2015 general election.
Overall turnout in 2015, when the Conservatives won 331 out of 650 seats, was 66.4%, up from 2010….