Tag Archives: Trump base

There seems to be some Trump Republicans switching to Independents….

At least that is what a recent Marquette Law School Poll maybe pointing to….

Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, made an interesting observation over the weekend: The number of Americans who identify as Republican dropped in 2017, and the group that benefited appears to be independents.

There is an interesting connotation to this. President Trump’s low approval ratings (which have improved recently) are often discussed with an asterisk. He may be unpopular, but among Republicans he’s still viewed positively. But if there are fewer Republicans now than there were when he took office, that Trump maintained their support seems less impressive. If six of your 10 friends like your spouse, but then three of the four who don’t decide they don’t want to be your friend anymore, it’s not exactly a good sign if six of your remaining seven friends are still supportive…..


Trump’s strategy of insisting on boosting his base has appeared to keep his base loyal to him. But to some small extent, his party eroded over the course of 2017, which, given his margin of victory two years ago, bodes poorly for a reelection….


One year …Trump has the lowest numbers of any modern US President / His base is softening….

Several one year polls are in today and the numbers are just about the same across the board…

President Donald Trump is at about a 40% approval rate….

The LA Times  points to some drop offs in Trump’s base….

Because the USC/L.A. Times poll questions the same people repeatedly over time, it can track those defections: About one in eight people who said in April that they approved of Trump’s job performance now say they disapprove.

Most of those who had not made up their minds in April now have done so, and by almost 2 to 1, they have gone against Trump.

“The people who were ‘waiting to see’ in the spring have mostly moved toward disapproval,” said Jill Darling, survey director for the USC economic and social research center.

Even among those who voted for him, Trump’s popularity is tepid. Asked to rate him on a 0-100 thermometer, Trump voters gave the president personally an average score of 64. His policies won a score of 72. By contrast, the antipathy from Clinton voters was intense — they gave Trump a personal score of 7 and a policy score of 9.

Other questions on the poll also indicate problems for the president. A majority, 52%, said he has done less than he said he would do, with 31% saying “much less.” Only 12% said he has accomplished more than he pledged, while 30% said he has done about what he said. Those numbers, too, have deteriorated from April….


Trump’s Popularity Has Dipped Most In Red States

…from FiveThirtyEight….

….His net approval ratings in the states that helped put him over the top in 2016 (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) ranged from -10 percentage points to -12 percentage points. That’s slightly better than his net approval nationally (-15 percentage points) during the same period.

Trump’s continued popularity in the Midwest (relatively speaking) is important because (i) there are a ton of Electoral College votes in those states, and (ii) it shows that Democrats still have a problem there. That may also mean that Clinton didn’t lose the election because she was uniquely unpopular in key swing states. (She likely didn’t lose Wisconsin, for example, because she didn’t campaign there, as some have argued.) Trump may just have outsized appeal in the Midwest. Or perhaps the region — which used to lean slightly more Democratic than the nation as a whole — has simply become more Republican-leaning relative to the country. That trend could have little to do with Clinton or Trump.

Instead, Trump has seen a disproportionate decline in his popularity in red states. Let’s compare Trump’s net approval rating in each state to his 2016 margin there. In doing so, we’re basically pretending that the 2016 vote was a big job approval poll, with a vote for Trump being “approve” and a vote for Clinton “disapprove”:

There’s a clear negative correlation5 between the “change” numbers in the table above and Trump’s margin in each state. In states where Trump won by at least 10 points, his net approval rating is down 18 percentage points, on average, compared to his margin last November. In states that were decided by 10 points or less in November, it’s down only 13 points. And it’s down 8 points in states Clinton carried by at least 10 points.

The fact that Trump has lost the greatest number of supporters in red states is perhaps the clearest indication yet that he is losing ground among some form of his base, if you think of his base as those who voted for him in November

Well … with a couple caveats. It’s possible that the polls are merely underestimating Trump in these red states. Trump most outperformed his polling in 2016 in red states. Maybe that’s happening again. That said, he also beat his polls in Midwestern states, and he’s holding his own (relatively speaking) there, which argues that his red-state decline can’t be written off only as polling error…..


Trump’s poll numbers drop even among his base…

This poll was right BEFORE the Comey debacle started to roll out….

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed President Donald Trump’s approval rating back down following a bounce in mid-April.

The poll, taken May 4-9, pegged Trump’s approval at 36% compared to 58% who said they disapprove of his performance as President.
Nearly all interviews were done ahead of the news that Trump had fired FBI Director James Comey on Tuesday.
Trump’s support had ticked up to 40% in a mid-April poll taken after Trump authorized a missile attack on a Syrian air base in response to a chemical weapons attack the US said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad perpetrated on civilians, including babies.
The May poll showed Trump’s approval rating returning nearly to its previous position from a poll released April 4, when he earned a 35% approval rating.
Among subgroups, Trump lost significant support among white respondents without college degrees. This demographic has consistently been one of the stronger groups for Trump and is a rough picture of the white working class…..