Tag Archives: The GOP 2016 Presidential hopfuls

Rand Paul hasn’t cracked the young voters market….

Despite all the positive Republican polling out there…..

And the anemic trys at saying the right thing in front of different audiences by Senator Rand Paul around the country….

He has NOT pulled ahead of his fellow GOPer’s in getting the young vote….And NOT pulled ahead of Romney’s 2012 numbers either…..

He in fact TIES with Christie above all the others….

Yup Chris Christie…..

Rand Paul is having a moment. A recent cover story for The New York Times Magazine dubbed the potential Republican presidential candidate the “Pearl Jam” of the libertarian movement and a force that could win over young voters in 2016. It’s a tantalizing theory for the right and a fun story for the media. But the data suggests that the senator from Kentucky has his work cut out for him.

So far, Paul isn’t doing much better among young voters than the Republican nominee in 2012, Mitt Romney, or than Chris Christie, the New Jersey governor, is currently doing.

Since the beginning of the year, there have been eight live-interview national polls that detail results among young voters (ages 18 to 29 or 18 to 34), and matched Paul against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Together, these polls give us the views of more than 1,000 young voters. The same polls matched Clinton against Christie. The surveys show that young voters don’t see any difference between Paul and other Republican politicians.

Why should we trust these surveys? We shouldn’t expect early polls to tell us the final vote in 2016, but it’s probable that each candidate’s coalitions will remain mostly intact. Both the subsample and the overall margin should shift relatively uniformly. For example, Republicans should do better with white voters than they do overall, even if their margin among both shrinks or widens.

The median of the eight surveys shows that among young voters, Paul trails by 17 percentage points more than he trails among all voters. That would represent a slight improvement over Romney, who lost young voters by 20 points more than he did voters overall. Still, Paul’s and Romney’s relative performances with young voters are within the margin of error of each other.

Moreover, the difference between Christie’s margin among young voters and his margin overall is the same as Paul’s: 17 points….


Christie and the weak 2016 GOP Presidential Sweepstakes Contestants..

 Chris Christie’s biggest ally: The 2016 GOP presidential field absolutely sucks

attribution: NBC
Like Romney before him, Christie faces a weak GOP primary field

According to a report from Politico’s Maggie Haberman, supporters of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie say he’s still a top tier 2016 hopeful—and their argument for why they believe that to be the case is pretty revealing:

Among the factors they point to: No smoking gun has emerged in Bridgegate. No one has replaced him as the early Republican front-runner in 2016. A big chunk of the Republican establishment remains dead set against Rand Paul. The person most likely to replace Christie as the establishment favorite, Jeb Bush, has receded to the background after a burst of attention this spring. And in his home state, Christie is working on mending fences with fellow Republicans he has feuded with in the past.

Yeah, no smoking gun has emerged in Bridgegate … except that little part about how Christie’s senior aides punished a political foe by causing a traffic jam in his home town and that Christie for months (in the most charitable reading of events) not only failed to recognize what was happening right beneath his nose, but mocked those who pressed for answers until he could no longer pretend that nothing had happened.But Bridgegate aside, the thing that really struck me about the pitch for Christie is that so much of it comes down to pointing out that the GOP’s 2016 field absolutely sucks. The only one they seem afraid of at all is Rand Paul, but when it comes to Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, and the rest of the crew, Team Christie is dismissive.

When the traffic scandal broke in January, attention quickly shifted to Bush as the natural alternative to Christie. But after a flurry of headlines, the overt pining for the former Florida governor has died down, mostly because he’s done little to sustain it.“Some days, Jeb’s around and some days, he’s not,” [Home Depot co-founder and Christie supporter Ken] Lagone said of how much he expresses interest.

Christie allies also are aware of the stumbles on immigration reform by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) last year, and they believe Scott Walker, the Wisconsin governor who has often been touted as the best candidate to unite warring wings of the Republican Party, will emerge too bruised from his reelection battle this year to be seriously in contention.

Even Republicans who don’t support Christie seem to be admitting the GOP has a pretty bad 2016 field, albeit unintentionally. For example:

Without Bridgegate, he “would have been one of the front-runners in New Hampshire,” said Dave Carney, a Granite State operative who was a longtime adviser to Texas Gov. Rick Perry. “But he’s back to ‘Go,’ where everyone else is.”

I don’t think Carney was trying to say that the rest of the field is bad, but if the only thing Bridgegate does is level the playing field between Christie and the other candidates, what other conclusion can you draw? If there were any other Republicans with front-runner potential who were serious about running, Chris Christie would have been toast in the wake of Bridgegate. Instead, he’s still making a serious run for it. And thanks to the fact that the GOP has so little talent at the presidential ranks, he probably still has a shot……

Republicans in 2016…If NOT Christie…Who?


Here at the PDog I’m fronting Chris Christie as the CURRENT leader in the GOP 2016 Presidential Sweepstakes….

He DOES lead in the CURRENT polling….

But the line here is Christie simply cannot get thru the GOP primary process….

If that is correct?

Who would be the odds on favorite?

The current Real Clear Politics lists the polling averages as such…..

  1. Christie
  2. Paul
  3. Cruz
  4. Ryan
  5. Bush
  6. Rubio
  7. Walker
  8. Jindal

Now we have been going back and forth on naming the guys on this list who WE think have little or no chance to get thru the primary…..

I just said Christie….Due to his ‘bull in the China Shop’ thing, along with his embracing the President Problems….Oh, and he just signed on to ‘Dream’ immigration thing in his state  a Conservative ‘No-No’..

We have Rand Paul who was running REAL heavy up until a couple months ago when Christie changed to the new flavor in the early race…

Paul Ryan has just announced he wants the House Ways and Means  Chair….

Jeb Bush HAS been saying negative things about the healthcare law lately….

Marco Rubio crashed and burned a few months ago from the top of the list…

Scott Walker is quiet voice , who has only Ezra Klien in his corner so far it seems….

And Bobby Jindal?…Come on?

Did anybody get the hint I left above?


Yes…There are NO Women on this list….

But these Are the Republicans, Right?

Huckabee, the Social Conservative, keeps talking about running in 2016…

While most would question why he would take the pay cut….

And the record of Social Conservatives outside the bible belt even in the GOP is spotty….

Mike Huckabee, the media guy now…Keeps talking about running…

Former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas has not been among the Republicans frequently named as a potential 2016 presidential candidate, but he would like that to change.

“I’m keeping the door open,” Mr. Huckabee said in an interview here Thursday night about the possibility of seeking his party’s nomination again. “I think right now the focus needs to be on 2014, but I’m mindful of the fact that there’s a real opportunity for me.”

Mr. Huckabee, a Christian conservative who made a splash by winning the 2008 Iowa caucuses before seeing his cash-short bid overwhelmed in subsequent states, said he would not run this time unless he could finance a durable campaign.

“If I talk to people and they say, ‘If you run, we’re in and we’re in a big way,’ that’s going be helpful,” he said. “If I don’t hear that, you know what? This will be a real easy decision for me to make because I’ve jumped in a pool without water before and it’s a hard hit at the bottom.”

Since his defeat in 2008, Mr. Huckabee, a pastor-turned governor, has made a living off his show on Fox News, a talk radio program he just gave up and a steady schedule of paid speeches all over the country. He said he did not run for president in 2012 because he did not think President Obama could be defeated, but he also acknowledged he has enjoyed earning a measure of financial comfort and celebrity through his show.

It is those two factors, along with the rise of “super PACs” that let a single wealthy individual sustain a candidate lacking a major financial network, that he says are making him look closely at a second presidential run.

But he also suggested that one of the reasons he granted an interview about his political future after addressing a gathering of pastors is that he is still bothered about how his first presidential run ended — and he wants the respect he believes is due somebody who performed better than more-vaunted candidates and who remains popular with many conservatives….



Counter…Is Ted Cruz and trying to lock the up the Conservative vote for 2016?

Matt Taibbi is out with a piece today that asks….. Despite the Conservative Army in the House being pushed aside in the current deal talks to avoid a default on the Debt Ceiling…Has the Texas GOP Senator Ted Cruz locked in the rightwingnuts that come out and vote in presidential primaries?

Taibbi also knocks the Democrats , by the way for being a bit blaze” about the Debt Ceiling….

Every minute that Cruz presses forward sinks the Republicans into a deeper political hole, and the Democrats know this. Despite the seemingly impenetrable advantage the Republicans have gained through gerrymandering over the years (retaining their House majority in 2012 despite a two million-plus popular vote deficit), the party is now in serious danger of losing the House in 2014. Moreover, the shutdown debate has caused a massive schism within the Republican ranks, one symbolized by the open verbal combat that reportedly broke out between Cruz and other, less lunatic GOP Senators last week when the “reality caucus” discovered that Cruz had no exit strategy for this blow-it-all-to-hell stunt he’s pulling.

That schism is also setting the party up for almost certain failure in the 2016 presidential race. Cruz’s gambit – it sounds like a chess opening, doesn’t it? Only one that begins with white snapping its king in half and throwing the pieces across the room – is galvanizing an unstoppable primary-season demographic that will trample anyone who tries to circumvent it on the way to the nomination.

One thing that gives solace is that Cruz himself, if he plans on being that nominee, must have some kind of plan here. If he pushes this too far, and we actually default, and millions of jobs are lost as most economists predict, he must know he’ll have a hell of a time doing a whistlestop tour through the post-nuclear landscape he’s going to leave behind in Middle America.

So one would think he’s playing some kind of game, and that his real exit strategy is to be suddenly and ruthlessly defeated at the last minute by other mainstream Republican Quislings. Such a move would be at least half-smart. It would make him a supreme martyr within the party, and formalize his status as the de facto leader of this new Tea Party/Third Party movement that is devouring the old GOP like Streptococcus pyogenes.


Is Rand Paul leading the 2016 GOP Presidential Race?

Chris Cillizza, @ The Fix at the Washington Post thinks so……

…..from his list……

5. Jeb Bush: This is our holding-pattern ranking for the former Florida governor. If he announces he’s running or even that he’s moving toward running — heck, we’d take a Bush trip to Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina — then he is likely our No. 1 on the list. But, he’s not doing much of anything regarding the coming presidential race at the moment, so he stays where we’ve had him for months. (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Paul Ryan: See our note above about our previous underestimating of Ryan’s interest in running. The coming fights over the government shutdown and raising the debt ceiling are ready-made for Ryan and will (re)increase his profile nationally. We still are skeptical that he has the political chops to run a two-plus year campaign for the Republican nomination. Ryan’s seeming aversion to surrounding himself with anypolitical strategist types just reinforces that notion. (Previous ranking: 8)

3. Marco Rubio: We’ve had Rubio ranked No. 1 since we started doing our 2016 rankings at the end of 2012. But, his front-runner status has clearly come into question in the aftermath of his work to pass comprehensive immigration reform through the Senate. Yes, he was the key figure in making that happen, but the bill’s fate remains decidedly uncertain in the GOP-controlled House and is still not popular among the party’s grassroots. For those who write Rubio off because of immigration, however, go back and watch his speech at the 2012 Republican National Convention. He is someone of considerable political talent. And that doesn’t just disappear. (Previous ranking: 1)

2. Chris ChristieWatch Christie’s first ad in his walkover 2013 reelection race. Then imagine that as the start of telling the Christie story to a national Republican audience. Pretty powerful stuff. Yes, Christie has something of a base problem given the (false) idea that he somehow cost Mitt Romney the 2012 election because of his embrace of President Obama during Hurricane Sandy. But, Christie’s regular-guy populism is a nice fit for the times. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Rand Paul: He’s not a clear front-runner. But, if you are looking for a candidate who can (a) raise the money, (b) has a clear and compelling message and (c) has an obvious edge in an early state (Iowa), then Paul is the only person in the top three who checks all three boxes. We repeat what we said above: Underestimate him at your own peril. (Previous ranking: 3)

For the rest of the list….here.

The GOP 2016 Presidential hopfuls go to New Hampshire….

They’ve been to Iowa already…..

2016 is in play for the GOPer’s….

The Democrats are frozen in place.*….

Senators Marco Rubio and Rand Paul, two of the most talked-about potential 2016 Republican presidential candidates, are coming together to raise money for a cause near to the heart of any would-be G.O.P. White House hopeful: the New Hampshire Republican Party.

Mr. Rubio, of Florida, and Mr. Paul, of Kentucky, are two of the “special guests” slated to appear later this month at a Washington, D.C., fundraiser for the New Hampshire party, according to an email invitation. Also attending the July 29th event are New Hampshire’s own Republican senator, Kelly Ayotte, and Senators Rob Portman of Ohio and John Thune of South Dakota. Sponsorships of the fundraiser are going for $2,500, and it’s $500 just to attend.

The event marks the second time this year that Mr. Paul has raised money for the New Hampshire Republican Party. In May, he headlined an event in Concord. Mr. Rubio has yet to visit New Hampshire this year, but his Political Action Committee aired television ads on behalf of Ms. Ayotte after she opposed gun control legislation in the spring.

Not on the event’s guest list, for the moment, is another Republican senator who may have White House aspirations: Ted Cruz, the freshman from Texas. But he’s already planning on making a visit to New Hampshire next month, where he’ll be the keynote speaker at a fundraiser for, who else, the state Republican Party…..


* But are beginning to travel……

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