Tag Archives: RRH Elections @ Politicaldog101

2017 Texas Mayoral Results…RRH Elections….

The results from Texas are as follows:

San Antonio: Incumbent Ivy Taylor (DINO) and liberal councilman Ron Nirenberg (I) advance, with Taylor leading 43-36.

El Paso: Ex-State Rep. Dee Margo (R) and businessman David Saucedo (R) move on, with Margo leading 46-24.

The other 7 races were decided: Incumbents in Fort Worth, Arlington, Plano, and Garland were re-elected. Ginger Nelson (R) won easily in Amarillo while Rick Stopfer (R) won easily in Irving, and Joe McComb (R) narrowly avoided a runoff in Corpus Christi.

TX Results: WFAA-TV (DFW Area) || KENS-TV (San Antonio) || KVII-TV (Amarillo) || KVIA-TV (El Paso)

Source RRH Elections….

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Political Roundup for May 3, 2017…RRH Elections….

Election Results from Last Night:  In SC-5, State House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope and former State Representative Ralph Norman will square off in a runoff for the Republican nomination to face Democratic nominee former Goldman Sachs banker Archie Parnell in June.  In Cincinnati, Mayor John Cranley (D-Moderate) and challenger Yvette Simpson (D-Bold Progressive) will advance to the general election. For the SC State House, Bryant (R) won in LD-48 while Brawley (D) and Hill (D) advance to a runoff in LD-70.

As we are still trying to figure out what alternative universe President Trump is from based on his take of the Civil War, it is time for today’s roundup:


SEC:  Jay Clayton was confirmed by the Senate to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission by a 61-37 vote.

Filibuster:  Senate Republicans have shot down President Trump’s push for a crisis to eliminate the Senate filibuster completely.

Jackson:  The Atlantic looks at how Democrats have lost their ties to arguably their founder former President Andrew Jackson (Scots Irish) and how President Trump understands some of the tenants of Jacksonian Democracy.

Clinton:  Former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton (DLC?) has climbed out of her Westchester County hole once again and ranting about the election being stolen by the FBI and Russians….

More ….

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RRH Elections/Decision Desk HQ GA-6 Poll: Ossoff (D) leads Handel (R) 39-15

Ossoff leads at 39%; Handel leads crowded race for 2nd spot; Republicans combined narrowly top 50%

Five days ahead of the closely-watched first round of the special election to fill the US House seat formerly held by HHS Secretary Tom Price (R), a new poll from RRH Elections shows Democratic front-runner Jon Ossoff well ahead of the field, leading his nearest challenger 39-15. Overall Ossoff is well short of the 50% mark needed to win outright, though he hits that mark among those who have already voted. Four Republicans, former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R), Johns Creek councilman Bob Gray (R), and former State Sens. Dan Moody (R) and Judson Hill (R), are all bunched tightly together in a race to advance with Ossoff, with Handel narrowly leading Gray for the second runoff spot 15-12. The six most prominent Republicans combined lead the two most prominent Democrats combined by a margin of 51-43. The survey of 321 Likely Voters was conducted from April 5-10, 2017 using both an IVR automated phone survey (220 voters) and an online survey (101 voters) and has a margin of error of 5%. All survey design and data analysis is the responsibility of RRH Elections; funding was provided by the generous contributions of our readers and co-sponsorship by Decision Desk HQ. For comments or questions on the poll, please email us at redracinghorses@yahoo.com

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Political Roundup for April 4, 2017…Another Obamacare Try…RRH Elections…

Obamacare:  After threatening to make Republicans live with Obamacare and potentially entertaining Democratic offers after his high stakes negotiation tactics failed, President Trump (Art of the Deal) and House conservatives are mulling another attempt at repealing parts of Obamcare and replacing them with watered down versions.  It is not clear if the third largest party in the House, the House Freedom Caucus, will provide support to the minority government of Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) or cause parliamentary chaos, their usual tactic.

More Obamacare:  After golfing with the President, Senator Rand Paul (R-Libertarian) articulated something resembling a repeal and partial replace of Obamacare.  Basically Paul is trying to maintain optics of being against new entitlements by keeping the subsidy regime in place instead of creating a tax credit entitlement regime.  It really sounds like third largest party in the House and their Senate fellow travelers are looking at caving under “yuge” pressure from the Trumpian hordes.

Judiciary:  The Trump administration is scouring the countryside looking for young conservative lawyers in their late 30s early 40s to appoint to the federal judiciary.  Yours truly is not one of them, but I would not mind serving as a Bankruptcy Court judge.

Kaisch:  Ohio Governor John Kaisch (R-Weaverland) does not plan on running against President Trump in 2020, but he is spending a lot of time contrasting himself to Trump.  John Weaver is keeping himself fed apparently by stroking Kaisch’s enormous ego.  Talk about someone who could get me to actively support Trump in a primary….

More ….

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Political Roundup for February 23, 2017…Who’s gonna win the DNC race?…RRH Elections


CPAC:  The Trumpification of the Republican Party will be on display at CPAC this weekend. What used to be a conservative event that was hijacked by the Ron Paul Revolution is undergoing a Trumpification as well.  After the Milo fiasco, we should all be wondering why this sad event is even continuing.

2018:  Democrats are feeling urgency to make gains in 2018 or potentially face another decade without congressional or state legislative power.  If they cannot make a move in 2018, they don’t deserve to ever have power again.

Twitter:  Many of us have wondered what kind of control does the Trump clan hold over the President’s twitter usage.  Apparently, Trump’s twitter rage and love are dictated by what he sees on television.

DNC:  The Hill has a breakdown of the DNC race and thinks Representative Keith Ellison (D-NOI / OGGoldy goes Republican) has the edge, but RRH commentary from yesterday seems to doubt these numbers…


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Political Roundup for February 21, 2017…Trump Supporters…RRH Elections…


NSA:  Lt. General H.R. McMaster has been appointed National Security Adviser replacing Michael Flynn, the former General who was sacked resigned for defying Vice President Pence and the Deep State, and colluding with the Russians.  McMaster is a more conventional pick from a worldview and is known as a warrior-scholar.

Trump Supporters:  The Washington Post looks at how President Trump’s supporters view him as the greatest thing since sliced bread while not understanding why everyone else does not view him as the greatest thing since sliced bread as well.  I guess they feel the same way I felt when people on the right accused former President Obama of being anti-energy while he was the most pro-fracking president in history (before Trump).

Cuomo:  New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (D / IDC / RINO / Whatever gets me votes today) released New York’s DNC delegates to vote their conscience in the DNC chairperson race.  This is clearly a sign there is no frontrunner so Andy needs as much cover as he can get.

Identity Politics: Victor Davis Hanson examines identity politics and whether we are seeing the End Times of identity politics with the era of Trump.  Hanson argues increased diversity and conflicting goals in the various political coalitions might mean we are seeing the apex of identity politics with a decline occurring in the near future.  We can only hope!

Trump-LBJ:  National Review examines the similarities between President Trump and former President (and the worst president of the last 50 years) Lyndon Johnson.   National Review in particular looks at how the left loves the results LBJ obtained while using Trump style tactics.

RNC:  The RNC has had two record months in a row.  It broke its previous post-presidential election record for January by raising $19.8 million, which is higher than the record breaking December the RNC had.

CPAC:  Showing yet again why CPAC should be banned from occurring by constitutional amendment for the sake of the Republic, the organizers have embarrassed themselves by inviting and uninviting mentally/morally compromised Milo Yiannopoulos over the holiday weekend.  Milo, the gay male Ann Coulter, got himself into real deep sh*t by essentially trying to justify inappropriate relationships between older men and teenage boys.  As conservatism is dead, it is fitting that CPAC and the ACU commit ritualistic suicide by first inviting Milo angering the remaining socially conservative rump then sticking the knife back in their gut by uninviting him unleashing the wrath of his militant sympathizers….


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Political Roundup for February 15, 2017…Obamacare Repeal Not so fast…RRH Elections…


Flyover Country:  In case some of our readers were wondering as they are worrying about President Trump from their homes on the respective flanks of the country, Trump is still popular in middle America.

Obamacare:  As I predicted months ago, the Republicans are running into serious internal issues regarding the repeal of Obamacare.  If a repeal happens at all, you got to wonder if it will take as long as it took the Democrats to pass Obamacare.

DNC:  Tom Perez claims to have enough votes to win the race for DNC Chairman.  A Perez win would continue Obama control of the DNC.

SBA:  Linda McMahon was confirmed as SBA Director.  She received strong support from both parties by today’s standards.

MI-Sen:  With a dearth of interested candidates, Republicans in Michigan are floating the idea of Kid Rock running for US Senate.  Crazy to think that Kid Rock as a candidate is not that far outside the realm of possibility….


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Political Roundup for February 2, 2017…Cruz debates Sanders on Obamacare…RRH Elections…


Price/Mnuchin: Senate Republicans have changed the rules in the Senate Finance Committee to allow HHS Secretary nominee Tom Price (R) and Treasury Secretary Nominee Steve Mnuchin to be sent out of committee n a party-line vote. The decision was necessitated by Dems on the committee staging a walkout in an attempt to deny a quorum.

DeVos: Education Secretary Nominee Betsy DeVos (R) now looks like the Trump cabinet nominee in the most danger after Sens. Susan Collins (R) and Lisa Murkowski (R) announced yesterday that they would vote against her. DeVos now needs every other Republican to stay on board to be confirmed by a 50-50 tie vote.

DNC Chair: Former US Labor Secretary Tom Perez (D) scored a major coup in his bid to become DNC chair when he picked up the endorsement of Joe Biden. Perez is considered one of the two front-runners for the job, along with Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison (D), with South Bend, IN Mayor Pete Buttgieg (D) also having a base of support.

Media Circus: You thought the 2016 campaign was behind you? Think again. Sens. Bernie Sanders (I/D) and Ted Cruz (R) will engage in a fantasy presidential debate to stroke their egos debate the future of Obamacare next Tuesday….


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Political Roundup for December 13, 2016…RRH Elections…


Trump:  President-Elect Trump postponed a news conference where he planned on detailing the efforts to still enrich the Trump empire avoid conflicts of interest with his business assets.  Trump promised this news conference for December 15 way back in November.  Now he promises to have it by January 20.

DNI:  In a real WTF moment, avoid Trump hater Carly Fiorina is in consideration for Director of National Intelligence.

Pennsylvania:  Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein (Con Artist, weirdo, hippy, criminal, etc…) received a strong rebuke from U.S. District Judge Paul Diamond who dismissed the Green Party’s scam to raise funds demand for a recount of Pennsylvania’s paper ballots and an examination of Pennsylvania’s voting machines.  I have not spoken much about Pennsylvania’s voting machines despite some weird comments in the press about them being hackable.  Considering the machines are not hooked up to any external means of communication and are slightly more sophisticated than the ten plus year old elliptical bike in my basement, anyone saying the machines have been hacked should be placed under a mental health evaluation hold at the local hospital.

Wisconsin:  Speaking of Green Party lunacy, Wisconsin completed its recount and discovered El-Presidente-Elect Trump widened his lead by 162 votes.  Rigged!

Colorado:  A Clinton appointed U.S. District Court judge has tossed an attempt to unbind Colorado’s presidential electors.   Judge Wiley Daniel denied two Democratic electors injunction request on the basis such a request would undermine the democratic process.

Electoral College:  Speaking over undermining the democratic process, Representative Jim Himes (Limousine Liberal) wants electors to vote against El-Presidente-Elect Trump as he is “completely unhinged”.  Maybe if the Democratic Party nominated a better candidate we would not be facing a Trump presidency….


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Political Roundup for December 12, 2016…Tillerson Troubles…RRH Elections…


Chris Christie: Years after (lap) bands a made him dance, RRH’s favorite former Morris County Chosen Freeloader reportedly turned down numerous cabinet positions during his quixotic, humiliating, 9-month-long quest to be selected US Attorney General. Sad!

At least Christie had the foresight to try for the position in which he could pardon himself (you know, if the situation ever arises). At this point, especially considering El Presidente Trump’s diet, I can only imagine Christie wondering if it’s too late to apply for White House taste tester (sorry, was that a bridge too far?). In preparation, Christie was sighted tonight practicing replenishing his bag of m&m’s while sitting at a dimly lit table at the NJTP’s Thomas Edison Service Area. Somewhere, Jared Kushner is tenting his fingers imagining rejecting Christie for that final gig.

Jill Stein: Newfound Hillary Clinton acolyte Jill Stein has declared Michigan’s operation of the 2016 presidential election a “hot mess.” I suppose it takes one to know one…

Our Celebrity Apprentice President-Elect: Lest he should be too busy to tweet, Celebrity Apprentice Executive Producer (and President-Elect) Donald Trump will evidently spend “ZERO TIME!” on the show. This comes despite his choosing to keep his leadership role (and, potentially, his salary). But, folks, please don’t worry. According to Kellyanne Conway, the PEOTUS will only produce the show in his “free time” (read: while Mike Pence is governing).

The Electoral College: In an effort to unbind #NeverTrump Republican electors in other states with the same statutes, two Democratic electors have filed suit in federal court to challenge Washington’s law requiring its electors to vote for the state’s popular vote winner.

Agriculture Secretary/ND-Sen: Deeply electorally endangered US Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) is reported to be the frontrunner for Agriculture Secretary.

Secretary of the Russian Democratic Federative Republic State: Who, according to The New Yorker‘s Steve Coll, is Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson?

Little Marco: US Sen Marco Rubio (R-FL) is signaling that he’d oppose Rex Tillerson’s likely nomination.

Tillerson and Trade: Unsurprisingly, and thankfully, Tillerson supports free trade. That said, seeing as he’s an oil company CEO, should that fact surprise anyone? In any case, is it now fair to say that many of Trump’s core supporters have been, in one of the alt-right’s favorite words, well… “cucked?”

American Manufacturing Council: President-elect Trump has named Dow CEO Andrew Liveris, an Australian-American and proud naturalized US citizen, as Chairman of the new American Manufacturing Council.

Bigly Smart President-Elect: In Donald Trump’s own words, “I’m, like, a smart person. I don’t have to be told the same thing in the same words every single day for the next eight years – could be eight years. … I don’t need that.” On account of his yuge brain, the PEOTUS will not be receiving daily security briefings. Instead, functioning POTUS Mike Pence will presumably be briefed every morning.

Fake News: Here’s a fascinating read regarding a group of Macedonian teenagers’ rise to riches by pumping fake American political news through social media channels (mainly targeted at Donald Trump’s supporters).

Wisconsin in 2016: Craig Gilbert, perhaps the finest political reporter employed by an American newspaper, explains how Donald Trump shook up the Badger State’s political geography this year in his latest piece….


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Political Roundup for December 9, 2016…Governors…RRH Elections….


AZ-Gov: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) will not run for Governor in 2018.

IL-Gov: Democrat scion Chris Kennedy, the son of the late Robert F. Kennedy, is interviewing potential pollsters and consultants as he moves toward a possible 2018 gubernatorial run. Democrats have been having trouble finding a candidate willing to take on the popular Gov. Bruce Rauner (R). Kennedy’s status as a rich member of the Kennedy clan makes him slightly outside the mold of the usual corrupt hacks the Illinois Democratic machine generally digs up.

NJ-Gov: What exit? Former SNL alum Joe Piscopo will probably make a decision in January about whether to run for Governor as a Republican.

NJ-Gov: Looks like Gov. Chris Christie (R) will not be going anywhere. After spending most of 2016 publicly debasing himself on behalf of Donald Trump, it looks like President-elect Trump will snub Christie and deny him a place in his administration. After hoping to be named Vice President Attorney General Secretary of Homeland Security Republican National Committee Chair, Christie will have to settle for finishing his term as governor and being an “informal adviser” to Trump. Although we here at RRH hold out hope that Christie can be named Ambassador to East Timor.

NJ-Gov: Former Trump campaign advisor and Nutley commissioner Steve Rogers has announced that he will enter the New Jersey gubernatorial race. Rogers is a borderline some dude and would have a tough time winning the GOP nomination let alone a general election.

NM-Gov: Sen. Tom Udall (D) will not run for governor in 2018.

VA-Gov: Rep. Rob Wittman (R) has dropped out of the 2017 Virginia governor’s race. This leaves three Republicans vying for the GOP nomination: former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie, Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart and state Sen. Frank Wagner.

WI-Gov: Former state senator Tim Cullen (D) and Milwaukee County Executive Chris Abele (D) both announced that they will not run for governor in 2018…..


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Political Roundup for December 6, 2016…Governors…RRH Elections


AL-Gov: Jefferson County commissioner David Carrington (R) became the first Republican to openly declare interest in the Governor’s race. Carrington, who has improved the county’s formerly-troubled finances in his time in office, has a geographic base in the state’s largest county but will likely face a very crowded primary field. State Rep. Craig Ford (D) has also indicated interest in the race from the Dem side.

GA-Gov: Outgoing Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R) has embarked on a statewide listening tour ahead of a likely run for Governor. Westmoreland will likely face LG Casey Cagle (R), SoS Brian Kemp (R), and potentially others in the primary.

IL-Gov: Billionaire JB Pritzker (D), part of the family that runs Hyatt Hotels, is considering a run for Governor and could self-fund. Pritzker previously lost a 1998 congressional primary for IL-9, but his self-funding would be music to the ears of Democrats struggling to take on Gov. Bruce Rauner’s (R) unlimited personal resources. Chicago councilman Ameya Pawar (D), a bold progressive, is to date the only other Dem who has shown serious interest in taking on Rauner.

NJ-Gov: A Q poll shows Gov. Chris Christie (R) getting even more unpopular, while Democrats lead on the generic ballot for next year’s Governor race.

NC-Gov: Gov. Pat McCrory (R) officially conceded his re-election race yesterday to AG Roy Cooper (D) after a recount failed to improve the several thousand vote margin between the two.

SC-Gov: Sen. Tim Scott (R) will not run for Governor; his path to what could have been an easy win was complicated substantially when Gov. Nikki Haley (R) accepted the UN Ambassadorship, allowing LG Henry McMaster (R) to ascend to the top job and presumably run in 2018 as an incumbent….


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What’s Coming Up in 2017-2020 Governor Races…RRH Elections…Daily Kos…

Today we’re going to have a little mini-preview look at what’s coming up elections-wise in the next year. Since we will not publish our first full set of 2018 Senate and Governor Ratings until January (and House and Row Officer ratings will wait until later in the year when we have more information available), we are adjusting the following ratings for the elections coming up shortly:

LA-Sen Safe R from Likely R || NJ-Gov Likely D from Lean D

We are also adding one intraparty rating: LA-3 Safe R/Lean Higgins.

New ratings for the 2017 races are below. Here is the Senate/Governor map:

Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
CA-34 (OPEN) NJ-Gov (OPEN)
VA-AG (Herring)
WI-Supt* (Evers) VA-Gov (OPEN)
GA-6 (OPEN) AL-Sen (TBD)
LA-3 (OPEN) Lean Higgins

Bold denotes a seat we project to flip partisan control. Italics denotes a D-held Tossup seat. (*) denotes a formally non-partisan race.

Governors: (June 6 (NJ) and 13 (VA) primaries/November 7 general)

New Jersey Likely D. After two terms of the now extremely-unpopular Gov. Chris Christie (R), New Jersey Republicans will face an uphill battle trying to hold Drumthwacket in 2017. On the Dem side, wealthy former ambassador Phil Murphy (D) is the prohibitive favorite for the nod. Murphy seems to be taking the Corzine route, eliminating primary opposition by buying off the state’s powerful Dem machines. Murphy is likely to prevail easily over his only primary challenger of significance, State Rep. John Wisniewski (D), who has far less cash and machine backing but is hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with an antiestablishment populist-liberal campaign. On the GOP side, State Rep. Jack Ciatarelli (R) is the only candidate of significance in the race so far, but LG Kim Guandagno (R), State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R), and State Rep. Jon Bramnick (R) are all thought to be interested in a bid. At this point there is still no clear favorite for the nomination and much will depend on which candidates actually enter, which is still up in the air. The race could also be shaken up dramatically if Guandagno ascends to the top job following a Christie departure to the Trump administration. But thanks to Murphy’s wealth and cleared primary coupled with Christie’s unpopularity and the lean of the state, any Republican will likely face an uphill battle in the general, and Murphy looks more likely than not to be the next Governor of the Garden State.

Virginia Tossup. Owing to Virginia’s unique one-term limit, this will be an open seat in 2017. Democrats’ nominee is LG Ralph Northam (D), who is something of a generic Democrat with some moderate tendencies. Northam’s campaign skills are regarded as mediocre, but he has cleared the primary field and has the lean of the light-blue state on his sight. Republicans have a crowded primary, with four candidates already officially in the race: ex-RNC chair and 2014 Senate nominee Ed Gillespie, Rep. Rob Wittman (R), antiestablishment populist Prince William CE Corey Stewart (R), and State Sen. Frank Wagner (R). All have significant bases of support and could win the primary. Any of the major Republican candidates (save maybe the polarizing Stewart, who has some implosion potential) look likely to be competitive against Northam in the purple to light-blue state, and at this point there is absolutely no clear favorite….



Daily Kos on the 2017 – 2020 Governor races….

Donald Trump’s shocking victory over Hillary Clinton also saw Republicans win more power at the state level than in any election since 1928. However, there is one possible silver lining for the party that doesn’t occupy the White House. A whopping 36 states elect their governors in 2018, and crucially, that includes nearly all of the states that are important for the next round of redistricting that will take place after the 2020 census. If the next election cycle follows the pattern of the last three midterms and sees the president’s party suffer steep downballot losses, Democrats could be in a prime position to improve their standing at just the right time…..


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Political Roundup for November 22nd, 2016…US Senate…RRH Elections….


Senate, Meet House: Democrats face a tough Senate battlefield next cycle, and Representatives are already lining up to take on incumbents in this Politico Great Mentioner.

  • In Montana, Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT-AL) cruised to reelection this cycle, and he has already met with Senate leadership about a campaign. Plus, his boilerplate criticism of the incumbent sounds tailor-made to prepare the foundation of his Senate campaign against Sen. Jon Tester (D).
  • In North Dakota, early Trump endorser Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND-AL) might run against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D), despite talk of him being considered for Energy Secretary.
  • In West Virginia, Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-WV-3) and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey could run against Sen. Joe Manchin (D) for Republicans.
  • Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in Missouri could face a number of candidates as the state has moved right, including Reps. Vicky Hartzler, Ann Wagner, or Billy Long (R). Wagner in particular is interesting with her longtime national connections as a former ambassador and RNC Co-Chair.
  • Rep. Luke Messer (R) is mentioned as a potential candidate against Sen. Joe Donnelly (D).

All of these mentions come with the usual caveat that most of these are speculative lists (Zinke notwithstanding) and more and different candidates will come out of the woodwork in these different states.

MO-Sen: Despite bragging about buying ads and setting up Republicans to nominate Todd Akin to ruin their chances at her seat, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) has confirmed she will run for reelection. Adding on to our Great Mentioner above, this article also mentions Rep. Sam Graves as a potential candidate (again, none of these potential candidates have confirmed their interest).

AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain (R) will decide if he will run for a seventh term in three years…..


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Political Roundup for November 7th, 2016…Clinton leading in More Races that Obama…RRH Elections…


Comey: Comey has announced that the FBI’s opinion on the Clinton email case has not changed after the discovery of several new emails (not recommending charges), mostly because they were determined to largely be duplicates of existing ones. Expect there to be an investigation into the investigation in the likely event that Clinton wins, as Comey has done some highly irregular things in his handling of this case and Democrats will probably be out for blood after his late-October announcement that he was reopening the case.

Clinton-Email: Clinton did something shady and probably illegal with her private email server. Shocking, I know.

“Elitism”: Saleno Zito has a (very rose-tinted IHMO) piece on how Trump’s candidacy has dealt a mortal blow to the culture of elitism that has been pervasive in the country since Clinton was first elected. A political world without Trump is basically uncharted territory at this point, but “Things are not working” has always been his strongest argument, and I doubt American populism dies with his candidacy. Perhaps someone less inclined to call someone’s mother a whore on camera could pick up the torch where he left off and build a nationally viable coalition.

Early Votes: There’s a relatively simple way to rationalize the two competing narratives on the early votes—that minority turnout is up but also down—which is that EV turnout is massively in general. In terms of raw EV’s the totals are up almost everywhere, but they’re up (and usually proportionally higher) in white areas too. We’ll see how much this trend is worth in terms of predicting overall turnout vs just cannibalizing election day votes, but if they do wind up highly predictive we’ll probably have a much better idea of who’s going to win every election from now on a week or so ahead of time.

Palin: Sarah Palin, usually a lightning rod of media attention, has done some quiet campaigning for Trump in Northern Michigan. Makes sense to me honestly, as Palin is nothing if not a good driver of GOP turnout in places like this.

Poll of Polls: The Huffington Post has collected the total polls of the last 3 presidential elections, and noted that Clinton is leading in a larger majority of polls than Obama did in the last 2 months of either of his races. I’m not sure how reliable this is considering the 2012 polling failures and the 2008 financial crisis, but it does show how persistent Clinton’s lead has been in the closing stretch of the election, even if there’s a good chance she wins by a smaller margin than Obama did either time. If Trump does win, the polling industry will have to spend some serious times reflecting on its failures over the last 3 cycles and start looking for better ways of measuring turnout & patterns.

Trump: Morale is apparently low in the Trump campaign. However the most notable part of this story is that his campaign has apparently successfully pulled him off Twitter, which is probably why it hasn’t been in the news much lately….


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Political Roundup for November 4th, 2016…The mess after the election?…RRH Elections

This is the final weekend before election day, which is a good time to remind you that regardless of who wins on Tuesday we will have to spend the next four years either dealing with stories about investigation into Hillary Clinton’s negligent handling of classified government information and pay to play donations to her “charitable” Foundation or stories about women Donald Trump sexually harassed, financial fraud allegations against him and a myriad of other shady business and tax dealing he’s engaged in over the years. Good work America!


Trump: Porn watchers like Donald Trump. Trump won porn site RedTube’s presidential poll 52% to 46%. Who could have guessed that guys who like to watch p***y prefer a candidate who likes to grab p***y!

Cruz: Ted Cruz’s conscience allows him to campaign for Donald Trump in Iowa. THIS is who Ted Cruz really is.

Johnson: Reason takes a look at how Gary Johnson’s vote total will effect Libertarian Party ballot access. 0.5% of the vote will get them access in Michigan and New Mexico for 2018. 1% will get full ballot access in in Kansas, Maryland, Nevada, and Wisconsin in 2018 and 2018 and 2020 access in Oregon. In Connecticut 1% will get their Presidential candidate ballot access in 2020. 2% gets the Libertarian Party full ballot access in 2018 in Iowa. 2.5% gets full ballot access for 2018 in Oklahoma. 7,500 votes gets 2018 access in Washington D.C. 3% gets 2018 ballot access in Arkansas, Idaho, and Massachusetts. 3% would have earned the party ballot access in Ohio for 2018 and 2020 but since Johnson is listed on ballot as an Independent and not a Libertarian it is not relevant. 5% gets full ballot access for 2018 in North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas and for 2018 and 2020 in Arizona, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, Rhode Island, and Washington state. Finally these 13 states give third parties no special ballot access benefits no matter how well their presidential candidate does; California, Delaware, Florida, Indiana, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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