Tag Archives: RRH Elections @ Politicaldog101

Political Roundup for August 28th, 2017…Pence 2020?…RRH Elections…

President

Kasichlooper: Say it with me now ‘THIRD PARTIES CAN’T WIN NATIONAL ELECTIONS!’ The one asterisk to that has to do with impending civil war (and we’re not there, at least not yet). Even then, one of the original two parties will just rapidly die, leaving us with two parties once again. The most recent trial balloon making its way around Acela Corridor cocktail parties (and likely funding some consultant’s underling’s delicious and boozy bottomless brunch at El Centro on 14th St) is a possible 2020 ticket of Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) and Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D). You get two Johns for the price of one, and for once that wasn’t being said to a hooker. Joking aside, this balloon will eventually deflate like all of the others.

Pence: In this piece by Jack Colwell over at Howey Politics Indiana, he points out that the DNC is already talking about Vice President Mike Pence (R) as if he will be running for President… in 2020. I’m not sure if the DNC is just convinced that Trump will retire, or that they’re so deep into their own rhetoric that they’ve already just priced-in his impeachment and removal from office as a given. If it’s the former, I’d be really interested in how they know this. I’m guessing it’s the latter, though….

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Political Roundup for August 24, 2017…Kelly try to get a handle on his boss’s info input?…RRH Elections….

President/National

Kaisch/Hickenlooper:  Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper (D) has ruled out a unity ticket against both parties with Ohio Governor John Kaisch (Himself).   Kaisch and Hickenlooper have appeared together several times recently, but it appears that Hickenlooper has some semblance of human dignity and refuses to latch himself to a fail independent candidacy with someone more self-obsessed than President Trump (R?).

Trump-Information:  Chief of Staff John Kelly has established protocols to ensure all information reaching President Trump has been vetted by Kelly before Trump reviews it.  Unless Secretary of Defense Mattis has Cyber Command working on taking down Twitter and the Oval Office’s cable connection, this is only a minor fix.  It was so much easier when Sir Robert Warpole controlled the flow of information to the Hanoverians.

Congress

RNC-Primaries:  President Trump’s threat to primary Republicans who refuse to fall in line behind his agenda could complicate things for the RNC, who really cannot take sides in primaries especially against incumbents….

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Political Roundup for July 20, 2017…Trump Support softening…RRH Elections

Presidential/National

Voter Fraud Commission:  President Trump (R?) accused election officials refusing to provide data largely available in the public domain to his “Voting Integrity Commission” of hiding “something”.  Not sure whose worse here… the “Commission” refusing to lift a finger here or the election officials who could just turn it over to shut the “Commission” up.

Trumpism:  Why are soft Trump supporters willing to bail from the Trump Train, but ardent supporters aren’t bailing?  The Wall Street Journal supposes that Trump’s ardent supporters care less about accomplishments and care more about someone understanding them.  We should get used to this politics of feelings over accomplishments in this identity politics fueled insanity we live in.  Thanks liberals for creating identity politics.

AG:  President Trump seems to regret hiring Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R-Drug War).

Postal Service:  In case Republicans had a reason to support the Post Office (worst service ever), here is a reason why we should all support destroying this grossly incompetent institution… the supposedly civil service non-partisan government owned operation broke the law by encouraging employees to take paid time off to campaign for former Senator Hillary Clinton (D)…..

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Political Roundup for 7/19/17…Trump trails all major 2020 Dem’s…RRH Elections

President:

Trump: PPP has polled the 2020 Presidential race. They find Trump trailing all Democrat challengers: Trump 39% to Biden 54%; Trump 39% to Sanders 52%; Trump 42% to Warren 49%; Trump 40% to Booker 45%; Trump 40% to Harris 41% and Trump 40% to Zuckerberg 40%. Sadly PPP did not test the man most likely to be Trump’s 2020 Democratic opponent so we don’t know how Kanye West would fare vs Trump if the election was held today. Please remember this is a PPP poll and they gave Democrats an 11-point advantage in partisan registration so salt to taste.

Hillary: The one Democrat who is still more unpopular that Donald Trump is Hillary Clinton. According the the latest Bloomberg National Poll Hillary Clinton has a 39% approval rating which is 2 points lower than the 41% they had President Trump at…..

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Political Roundup for 7/14/17…Impeachment and Trump polls…RRH Elections…

President:

Impeachment: Congressman Brad Sherman (D-CA) has filed the paperwork to impeach Trump for Obstruction of Justice. This will go nowhere in the House of course, mostly because I’m pretty sure Obstruction of Justice requires something more serious than “Fired the politically compromised head of the FBI”, but this is probably more about boosting Sherman’s left-wing creds than an actual attempt to impeach Trump. Pelosi and the smart Democrats have been doing all they can behind the scenes to squelch this movement, as at the very least it is playing all their cards way too early, and at worst . . . well they remember what impeaching Clinton over completely provable and unambiguously true crimes did to the GOP in the late 90s.

Trump-Poll: Morning Consultant has a poll out with some surprisingly good numbers for Trump and the AHCA, with the President at an astoundingly-good 46-50, and the AHCA at 40/47, in both cases buoyed by unusually good numbers with non-whites. I’m pretty sure Trump would kill someone on 5th avenue for a 39%/19%/38% showing with Hispanics, Blacks, and “Other” respectively in 2020.

Iowa: A PPP “Informed ballot poll” has found that Trump and Iowa Senator Jodi Ernst are both surprisingly popular in what is essentially a poll designed to show up in fundraising and morale-boosting emails against AHCA. But if PPP is going to release stuff like this, I’m going to be cheeky and selectively pick what I think is the most interesting part of it–Trump does best with the 18-45 demo. It’s not even like this is a complete fluke sample size either, as Ernst has a more classic Republican age lineup, being narrowly underwater with the young and up double-digits with everyone older. Clearly this means Trumpism is a winning issue with today’s youth, a PPP poll has confirmed it!!!…..

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Political Roundup for 7/10/17…Cuomo 2020 = Hillary Clinton 2.0?…RRH Elections….

President:

2020: Andrew Cuomo’s name has been floated around a lot for the D 2020 nomination lately, and Politico has a piece here covering most of what the buzz is about. Basically, Cuomo’s image as the New York Italian Boy could help in wooing back the WCW voters that abandoned Clinton in droves, and his public profile has been moderate enough to not scare off Suburban Republicans still upset with Trump. There are a few problems however, most notably the Albany stench that is sure to come up in both the primary and general election, and secondly the fact that the electrified Democratic left despises him for not being enough of a true believer in Progressive causes. There’s also the problem of being a straight white male in a party that is increasingly trying to define itself around “Diversity”. A bit of an aside, but one of my D friends summarized his problems perfectly when he described him as “Another Hillary Clinton that not even Feminists will get excited about”.

Trump: Trump’s approval ratings have been on the upswing lately, as he’s up to 47-51 in the latest Fox RV Poll. This is tied for his best numbers ever with the immediately post-election “glow” (of being barely underwater), and probably has to do with Trump recently playing to his strengths—making fools out of his media critics and berating Progressives and Europeans for abandoning the Liberal values they used to cherish until recently….

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Political Roundup for July 6, 2017…Gary Cohn and Conservatives?…RRH Elections

Presidential/National

Cohn:  Conservatives are afraid that President Trump (R)’s National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn is driving the Trump administration to a more moderate policy tone.  Cohn’s NEC has been front and center in many of the policy battles so far because it has been better staffed from a policy perspective than other areas of the administration.

Travel Ban:  6 in 10 Americans support a travel ban for individuals from 6 predominately Muslim countries.  The ban might even be more popular if separated from the President.  Note to Democrats and wimpy Acela Corridor Republicans… Americans love this stuff and you should too….

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Political Roundup for June 21st, 2017…Holder 2020?….RRH Elections…

In case you missed it yesterday, Republican Karen Handel worked out an unexpectedly strong win in GA-6, and Republican Ralph Norman had an unexpectedly close win in SC-5. Republicans and Democrats each held a seat in the SC State House as well. What does it say about politics that the Democrats did better in the seat Clinton lost by close to 20 points that they basically ignored than the one she lost by 1 that they poured over $30 Million in? Maybe that going all-in on a political nobody who looks like he’s just finishing up his freshman year of college isn’t a good idea? Or perhaps,(more seriously) that the higher the special election turnout, the worse the result for the already-fired-up Democrats, as SC-5 saw something like 1/3rd as many votes as GA-6 did. Regardless, expect a day of Democrats spinning about how GA-6 didn’t really matter and Republicans spinning about how GA-6 meant everything.

Now, on to the news:

President:

CBS-Poll: A CBS poll has Trump down to his lowest numbers yet at 36% approval. His handling of the Russia probe seems to be his weakest point so far, as he’s not doing too bad on the other major issues tested. Also, Americans believe Comey over Trump by about 2:1, and slightly favor believing that the probe is a grave matter of national security over it being a political hatchet job.

2020: Morning Consultant did a poll of the favorability #s of just about every candidate seriously suggested for the 2020-Dem Nomination. The vast majority of them are unknown right now, with the exceptions being Warren (Slightly Positive) and Biden (Very positive). The only notable exceptions here are Sanders and of course Clinton 2020, because as they say the third time’s the charm!

Holder: Eric Holder, probably best remembered as the AG Obama replaced with Loretta Lynch, is apparently “re-entering the political fray” and is talking about running for President in 2020. Because at this point I think the Democrats saw the 17-candidate pileup of the 2016-GOP race and said “Hold my kale-smoothie–watch this”….

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Political Roundup for June 19th, 2017…Kander 2020???….RRH Elections…

Tomorrow is special election day. Be sure to check back here at 3p ET today for our preview and at 7p ET tomorrow for our liveblog of the special generals for GA-06 and SC-05. Now, onto the news!

President

Landrieu: File this one under either ‘columnists don’t understand psephology’ or ‘someone had too many hurricanes on Bourbon Street just before a deadline.’ Apparently, a few Democrats are floating New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu’s (D) name as a possible presidential candidate. Oy. Here we go. For the next few years we’re going to get just about every reasonably-prominent Democrat in the country who does something half-noteable (in this case, a speech on the removal of Confederate monuments) run through the machinery of the Great Mentioner for at least a week or so. Never mind that Landrieu isn’t even the mayor of a mega-city, let alone a senator, governor, or even a celebrity businessman. No, he’s just the mayor of a reasonably-large city in a country full of them. But, The Hill needs something to write about, and stories about presidential campaigns, real or imagined, get clicks. Expect more of this drivel for a few years. Maybe a few of them will actually make also-ran status.

Kander: …And just as I say that, another one drops. At least this article is more intelligently written than the first one. It’s premise is just as stupid, though. Is former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) a rising star? Yes. Is he making the rounds that presidential hopefuls make? That’s certainly so. Does he have a snowball’s chance in Hades of becoming President this cycle? Hell no (unless he succeeds Sen. Claire McCaskill first). His performance against Sen. Roy Blunt (R) last year was impressive, though some of it can be put down to Bunt’s ineptitude and lack of likability. As the article rightly points out, Kander has nothing to run for that he could conceivably win unless Sen. McCaskill (D) steps aside. Therefore, he’s making the speaking circuit. I doubt it’s about more than keeping himself relevant. Most politicians have delusions of grandeur, but if he believes he’s going to be nominated for President in 2020 with no office in between, someone should stick him in a psych ward. Another day, another DC journalist has a deadline, another ridiculous presidential Great Mentioner story…

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Political Roundup for June 7th, 2017…Support FOR Immigration Rises in Texas…RRH Elections…

Texas IS moving LESS Red by day…..

For an incredible peek at the political future of the red-but-blueing Sunbelt, check out the Rice University Kinder Institute for Urban Research’s 35th and 36thannual Houston Area Surveys; the Kinder Institute’s polls have long been the most comprehensive non-U.S. Census survey of any American locale. The annual project has not only tracked changes in Greater Houston’s economy and its demographics but also trends in Harris County residents’ opinions on questions of urban development, religion, LGBT issues, abortion, politics, race relations, diversity, immigration, economic policy, criminal justice, and more (and, in the last two years, those of Montgomery and Fort Bend residents as well).

A teaser: Whereas 45% of Harris County residents in 2010-11 agreed that “Immigrants to the U.S. generally contribute more to the American economy than they take,” that number had steadily risen to 63% by 2016-17. In the same years, support for the idea that “The increasing immigration into this country today mostly strengthens, rather than threatens, American culture,” rose from 46% to 65%. Finally, while 55% of Harris County residents in 2010-11 believed that “The U.S. should admit the same number or more legal immigrants in the next ten years as were admitted in the last ten years,” that number grew to 71% in 2016-17. Of interest, these trends have also been broken down by age and race (with white Harris Baby Boomers earning their own section). Similarly, strong growth has been noted in support for LBGT issues and in opposition to the death penalty and mandatory prison sentencing for non-violent drug offenders.

I highly recommend looking through the wealth of public opinion data and trends found in these reports; they likely yield insights not only for understanding political trends in Greater Houston but also those in similarly high-growth Sunbelt metros like the Research Triangle, Charlotte, Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and Nashville. In any case, the national GOP would be wise to take these trends into account when planning to fight the blueing of these metros, many of America’s fastest-growing…..

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Political Roundup for June 1, 2017…Trump 2020?…RRH Elections…

Presidential/National

Trump/Clinton:  President Donald Trump (R-Twitter) continues to enjoy mocking “Crooked Hillary Clinton” over her unwillingness to take responsibility for losing the presidency to all people, President Trump.  His comments come after Hillary recently had a venting session where she blamed everyone but herself.  I am surprised Trump is not goading her to run again.

Trump/Fundraising:  Trump Victory, the joint fundraising effort between the RNC and Trump presidential campaign, will be holding a $35,000 a guest fundraiser in Washington, D.C. on June 28.  This is the first joint fundraiser since Trump became president.

Bloomberg:  Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) thinks Trump has a 55% chance of winning reelection.  Bloomberg, who endorsed Clinton over Trump last year, thinks the Democrats don’t have a coherent strategy to defeat Trump just like Clinton lacked a convincing strategy on why she should win other than she is a woman and Trump is bad.

Biden:  Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-Wilmington/Scranton) is setting up a political action committee.  Some are seeing this as a means to run for President in 2020 when Biden will be in his late 70s.  Like Hillary, someone needs to tell Joe that the Democrats need new blood that was not alive when the Korean War was fought!

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2017 Texas Mayoral Results…RRH Elections….

The results from Texas are as follows:

San Antonio: Incumbent Ivy Taylor (DINO) and liberal councilman Ron Nirenberg (I) advance, with Taylor leading 43-36.

El Paso: Ex-State Rep. Dee Margo (R) and businessman David Saucedo (R) move on, with Margo leading 46-24.

The other 7 races were decided: Incumbents in Fort Worth, Arlington, Plano, and Garland were re-elected. Ginger Nelson (R) won easily in Amarillo while Rick Stopfer (R) won easily in Irving, and Joe McComb (R) narrowly avoided a runoff in Corpus Christi.

TX Results: WFAA-TV (DFW Area) || KENS-TV (San Antonio) || KVII-TV (Amarillo) || KVIA-TV (El Paso)

Source RRH Elections….

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Political Roundup for May 3, 2017…RRH Elections….

Election Results from Last Night:  In SC-5, State House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope and former State Representative Ralph Norman will square off in a runoff for the Republican nomination to face Democratic nominee former Goldman Sachs banker Archie Parnell in June.  In Cincinnati, Mayor John Cranley (D-Moderate) and challenger Yvette Simpson (D-Bold Progressive) will advance to the general election. For the SC State House, Bryant (R) won in LD-48 while Brawley (D) and Hill (D) advance to a runoff in LD-70.

As we are still trying to figure out what alternative universe President Trump is from based on his take of the Civil War, it is time for today’s roundup:

President/National

SEC:  Jay Clayton was confirmed by the Senate to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission by a 61-37 vote.

Filibuster:  Senate Republicans have shot down President Trump’s push for a crisis to eliminate the Senate filibuster completely.

Jackson:  The Atlantic looks at how Democrats have lost their ties to arguably their founder former President Andrew Jackson (Scots Irish) and how President Trump understands some of the tenants of Jacksonian Democracy.

Clinton:  Former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton (DLC?) has climbed out of her Westchester County hole once again and ranting about the election being stolen by the FBI and Russians….

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RRH Elections/Decision Desk HQ GA-6 Poll: Ossoff (D) leads Handel (R) 39-15

Ossoff leads at 39%; Handel leads crowded race for 2nd spot; Republicans combined narrowly top 50%

Five days ahead of the closely-watched first round of the special election to fill the US House seat formerly held by HHS Secretary Tom Price (R), a new poll from RRH Elections shows Democratic front-runner Jon Ossoff well ahead of the field, leading his nearest challenger 39-15. Overall Ossoff is well short of the 50% mark needed to win outright, though he hits that mark among those who have already voted. Four Republicans, former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R), Johns Creek councilman Bob Gray (R), and former State Sens. Dan Moody (R) and Judson Hill (R), are all bunched tightly together in a race to advance with Ossoff, with Handel narrowly leading Gray for the second runoff spot 15-12. The six most prominent Republicans combined lead the two most prominent Democrats combined by a margin of 51-43. The survey of 321 Likely Voters was conducted from April 5-10, 2017 using both an IVR automated phone survey (220 voters) and an online survey (101 voters) and has a margin of error of 5%. All survey design and data analysis is the responsibility of RRH Elections; funding was provided by the generous contributions of our readers and co-sponsorship by Decision Desk HQ. For comments or questions on the poll, please email us at redracinghorses@yahoo.com

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Political Roundup for April 4, 2017…Another Obamacare Try…RRH Elections…

Obamacare:  After threatening to make Republicans live with Obamacare and potentially entertaining Democratic offers after his high stakes negotiation tactics failed, President Trump (Art of the Deal) and House conservatives are mulling another attempt at repealing parts of Obamcare and replacing them with watered down versions.  It is not clear if the third largest party in the House, the House Freedom Caucus, will provide support to the minority government of Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Janesville) or cause parliamentary chaos, their usual tactic.

More Obamacare:  After golfing with the President, Senator Rand Paul (R-Libertarian) articulated something resembling a repeal and partial replace of Obamacare.  Basically Paul is trying to maintain optics of being against new entitlements by keeping the subsidy regime in place instead of creating a tax credit entitlement regime.  It really sounds like third largest party in the House and their Senate fellow travelers are looking at caving under “yuge” pressure from the Trumpian hordes.

Judiciary:  The Trump administration is scouring the countryside looking for young conservative lawyers in their late 30s early 40s to appoint to the federal judiciary.  Yours truly is not one of them, but I would not mind serving as a Bankruptcy Court judge.

Kaisch:  Ohio Governor John Kaisch (R-Weaverland) does not plan on running against President Trump in 2020, but he is spending a lot of time contrasting himself to Trump.  John Weaver is keeping himself fed apparently by stroking Kaisch’s enormous ego.  Talk about someone who could get me to actively support Trump in a primary….

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Political Roundup for February 23, 2017…Who’s gonna win the DNC race?…RRH Elections

Presidential/National

CPAC:  The Trumpification of the Republican Party will be on display at CPAC this weekend. What used to be a conservative event that was hijacked by the Ron Paul Revolution is undergoing a Trumpification as well.  After the Milo fiasco, we should all be wondering why this sad event is even continuing.

2018:  Democrats are feeling urgency to make gains in 2018 or potentially face another decade without congressional or state legislative power.  If they cannot make a move in 2018, they don’t deserve to ever have power again.

Twitter:  Many of us have wondered what kind of control does the Trump clan hold over the President’s twitter usage.  Apparently, Trump’s twitter rage and love are dictated by what he sees on television.

DNC:  The Hill has a breakdown of the DNC race and thinks Representative Keith Ellison (D-NOI / OGGoldy goes Republican) has the edge, but RRH commentary from yesterday seems to doubt these numbers…

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