Tag Archives: RRH Elections@ Politicaldog 101

Primaries in NYC and around the country….RRH Elections…

New York City is the star of the show, with all major city offices up. But there are also 5 other big mayoral elections in Charlotte, Cleveland, Toledo, Buffalo, and Rochester, plus a number of other local elections across New York State and legislative specials in Oklahoma and Mississippi. Poll closing times are as follows: NC & OH – 7:30 ET || MS & OK – 8 ET || NYS – 9ET. Our Liveblog will start tomorrow at 7:30 ET. The Mayoral races are above the fold – flip over for County Executive, DA, Sheriff, and NYC Council races!

NYC-Mayor (D): The big race tomorrow, albeit a drama-free one, is the partisan primary for Mayor of New York City. New York City is of course the nation’s largest city by far, with a population of 8.5M, and extensive home-rule powers without equal among American cities. As a result, the Mayor of New York is really more like the nation’s 51st Governor than any other Mayor, and fittingly it is elected in traditional partisan races. NYC is, of course, solidly Democratic: it has a PVI of D+29 (2016) and a multi-ethnic population that breaks down roughly 45% White, 20% each Hispanic and Black, and 10% Asian.

Charlotte-Mayor (D): The second-biggest election today is the partisan primaries for Mayor of Charlotte. Charlotte is America’s 17th-largest city; it has a population just shy of 850K that breaks down as roughly 50% White, 35% Black, and 10% Hispanic. It had a PVI of D+13 (2008), though it has probably trended left since then. Charlotte proper covers all of both the urban and first-ring suburban portions of its metro area, making it among the nation’s most diverse cities from a socioeconomic standpoint. The city is roughly circular and might be best thought of as divided into four pie slices of north, south, east and west. The southern quarter of the city is quite wealthy and was staunchly Republican until 2016. The northern and western quarters are mostly black, with poorer areas near downtown and black-middle-class areas along the edges. The eastern quarter is racially very diverse, again with poorer areas near downtown and middle-class areas farther out. In today’s Mayoral race, five Democrats are running, but only three are serious; if no one cracks 40%, the top two finishers will head to a runoff in four weeks…

Cleveland-Mayor: Cleveland is America’s 51st-largest city, with a population of 385K that breaks down roughly 50% Black and 40% White. It has a PVI of D+33 (2008). Cleveland has a split personality between its two halves: the eastern half of the city is overwhelmingly black and generally very poor (the gentrified urban areas of the east side near Case University almost entirely sit outside the city limits), while the western half of the city is mostly lower-middle-class blue-collar white areas, with some Hispanic pockets. The mayoral primary is today in a California-Rules Top Two format. Incumbent Frank Jackson (D) is seeking a fourth term. Jackson, a moderate liberal, has been fairly popular as mayor, winning fairly easy re-elections in 2009 and 2013. His position as an African-American from the east side with significant crossover appeal to west side whites has left him hard to challenge. But this year, Jackson dabbled with retirement before deciding to run again, and that seems to have opened up the floodgates for challengers. He now faces eight challengers, seven of them notable. Overall Jackson should be a lock to come in first, but how strong his showing is may determine how contentious the race in November becomes…..

More….

Political Roundup for February 28th, 2017…Most Americans find politics stressful these days…RRH Elections

President & Miscellaneous

The Donald’s Budget: Many people are saying that Congressional Republicans don’t find 45’s Dick Gephardt ’00-inspired budget tremenous. Sad!

Need another reason to drink?: According to a new Reuters poll, most Americans find politics stressful these days. In other news, water is wet.

POTUS Favorability: In news that must be fake, young voters would fire The Donald—if given the chance. According to Reuters, most Americans aged 13-17 disapprove of POTUS (surprise!) and are just as disillusioned with politics as their older counterparts. They are, however, slightly more optimistic about the future than is the first generation to leave its children worse off than it itself was left.

Commerce Secretary: Billionaire Wilbur Ross was confirmed yesterday as Secretary of Commerce by a 72-27 margin.

TX-Voter ID: As expected, the DOJ has reversed its stance on Texas’ voter ID law. But, let’s be real: would such a law even be necessary with our inevitable Big Beautiful Wall?

Trump v. the Media: The New York Times claims that Donald Trump has “evil intentions.” But, seriously, did that stop the paper from publishing plenty of attention-seeking Trump headlines before his political days to boost its readership? The Donald was still The Donald then—just as much as he is now.

The Almighty Dollar: The dollar has held steady as of late, apparently due to POTUS’ current lack of specifics on fiscal and tax policy….

More….

Political Roundup for December 15, 2016…When is Trump bringing those jobs he promised to Ohio?….RRH Elections

President

Trump-Ohio:  Ohio voters are confident President-Elect Donald Trump (Who Knows?) will bring the change they desire.  The voters surveyed seem to be expecting all things from Trump including cutting the deficit, which he has no problem blowing up from his own statements.  Trump is a transactional guy.  Everything is negotiable.

Trump-Bulldozer:  Conrad Black describes President-Elect Trump as a bulldozer heading at 6omph towards a pile of destruction caused by decades of mismanagement and misgovernance.  I do not disagree with Black in his assessment.  I think Trump is going to get a lot of leeway from his supporters because the situation is viewed as being so bleakly by them.

Trump-Tech:  The technology world is warming up to Trump as leadership from Tesla and Uber are getting on board the Trump economic advisory group.  It will be interesting to see if a”newer tech” is breaking from the existing “new tech”.

Celebrities:  If anyone wanted to enrage the Great Unwashed and get me to jump in front of their angry mob, it is the celebrities who think since they try to entertain us (emphasis on try) that they have the right to blabber their incoherent ideological garbage everywhere all the time.  Now some are trying to directly appeal to electors to get them to vote against Trump.  Cannot we all just cut the cord, stop going to theaters, and ignore them?

More….

Political Roundup for October 27, 2016…Trump properties ads….RRH Elections

Today at noon we will publish the next installment of our General Election Preview series, focusing on Local races and Public Service Commissioners.

President:

Hillary: Hillary Clinton’s 33,000 missing e-mails may not be missing after all. Newly released FBI notes suggest that they still exist in several locations and that they could be recovered, if only someone would impanel a grand jury and seize them. This means we will most likely spend the first few years of the Hillary Clinton presidency talking about the scandal the MSM never bothered to focus on during the Presidential campaign.

Trump: With less than two weeks before Election Day, Donald Trump evidently wants swing voters to know that the Trump National Doral Miami golf resort got recognized by Successful Meetings Magazine for its renovation, among many other honors and distinctions. While campaigning for President of the United States Donald Trump spends a lot of time hawking his own businesses. So it is no surprise that 13 days before Election Day Donald Trump was in the battleground state of Washington, DC promoting one of his new hotels.

Trump: This is an actually Donald Trump ad! WTF people? His campaign actually spent money to make THIS and is paying to run it on Indian-American TV.

Trump: When the Republican candidate for Vice President is campaigning in Utah with 13 days to go you know things are not going well for the Republican presidential campaign. Mike Pence visited Utah to fight the McMullinmentum sweeping the Beehive state.

Hillary: Director Joss Whedon has released a new 2 minute web ad for his pro-Hillary Clinton Super PAC. It is no Firefly. Sad!

Hillary: Morgan Freeman really does narrate everything! Freeman is narrating Hillary Clinton’s latest campaign ad.

Johnson: The bottom seems to be falling out of Gary Johnson’s poll numbers. It is crazy to think about the opportunity the former two term Governor of New Mexico has squandered.

Johnson: Johnson has scored the endorsement of Rep. Scott Rigell (R) who has cut a web ad for him….

More….

Political Roundup for October 13, 2016…Clinton to go for Red States?…RRH Elections…

President:

Clinton and red states: The Clinton campaign is considering making a serious play for 3 traditionally red states: Arizona, Georgia and Utah. They are deciding whether it is worth buying TV ads in the states and other efforts. The talk comes after favorable poll results and major newspapers in the states endorsing Clinton.

Trump’s “authoritarian power”: Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) is walking back comments he made that Trump needed “to show some authoritarian power” if he is elected. He now says he intended to use the word “authoritative” suggesting that he is a powerful personality. LePage also says he will not interact with the press anymore-a vow he has made before.

Trump/Ryan: Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway downplayed Trump’s attacks on Paul Ryan in an interview with CNN. She accused them of not covering the “real issues” that people care about and “cherrypicking” comments that he makes and then making issues out of them. As far as Trump’s comments about Ryan go, she says “he said a couple of things and it’s over”.

Trump tweeting: Newt Gingrich says Trump needs to stop tweeting things out himself, especially in the middle of the night. He says “I don’t think you want a President of the United States who randomly tweets” and calls the middle of the night tweets “this 3 AM baloney”….

More…

Political Roundup for October 11, 2016…GOP Anarchy…RRH Elections

As America wishes it could recover from the events of last weekend starting with the release of Trump’s “lockerroom talk” to the debate which left substantial portions of Missouri uninhabitable for years to come, the nightmare known as this election cycle continues:

President

RNC: After a weekend of silence and rumors, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus confirmed once again he is a coward and the rumors of the RNC abandoning Trump are not true.  Priebus says the RNC went silent for the nominee to explain himself.  Obviously Priebus was ordered back into line by his “dear leader” Trump.  We cannot depose Trump right now, but could we depose Priebus?

Ryan:  Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R) is not being a coward like his fellow Wisconsin Priebus and is abandoning Trump.

Anarchy: Here is more on the anarchy that is breaking out as Republican turns on Republican over Trump.

More Ryan:  Trump responded to Ryan being a decent human being by lashing out at Ryan for allegedly not doing his job.  Not sure if Trump could balance a budget if magically another trillion dollars of revenue appeared.

Base First Strategy: Trump’s base first strategy is under attack from Republicans who know how to do math.  Trump’s strategy is squared on turning out the Great Unwashed Working Class White Horde (or the Horde for short) in numbers that would have frightened Attila the Hun and Ghengus Khan.  The problem with that is that the Horde is losing members due to (1) anyone competent getting an education and becoming suburbanized, (2) heroin overdoses, and (3) the influx of other people the Horde hates.

Trump’s Base:  Speaking of Trump’s base, the Washington Post has a great piece on how the Horde is beginning to realize Trump cannot win.  This mirrors the Facebook discussions I see whenever the coal issue comes up back where I grew up among the Horde that was left behind in the post-industrial wasteland known as Greene County.

Foreign Policy:  Foreign Policy magazine has broken its half century tradition of not endorsing candidates for political office and has endorsed Hillary Clinton for President….

More….

Political Roundup for September 14th, 2016…Primary Results…RRH Elections…

Last Night’s Results:

In New Hampshire, Executive Councilors Colin Van Ostern (D) and Chris Sununu (R) will face off for Gov; Sununu pulled out a 31-30 squeaker over State Rep. Frank Edelblut (R). NH-1 Rep. Frank Guinta (R) beat back a primary challenge by 2% and will face ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) once again. In NH-2, ex-State Rep. Jim Lawrence (R) will face Rep. Annie Kuster (D). Executive Council matchups are as follows: #1) Cryans (D) vs. Kenney (R) #2) Volinsky (D) vs. Cataldo (R). #3) Prescott (R) vs. Roth (D) #4) Pappas (D) vs. Levasseur (R) #5) Wheeler (R) vs. Weeks (D). 2014 NH-1 candidate Dan Innis (R) won a primary for SD-24.

In Delaware, Markell admin official Lisa Blunt-Rochester (D) will face Wyoming town mayor Hans Reigle (R) for DE-AL, State Sen. Bethany Hall-Long (D) won the primary for LG and will face businessman Greg Fuller (R). New Castle Sheriff Trinidad Navarro (D) ousted Insurance Commissioner Karen Weldin-Stewart (D); he will face 2012 Gov nominee Jeff Cragg (R). Attorney Matt Meyer (D) ousted New Castle CE Tom Gordon (D).

In New York, the IDC-alligned Marisol Alcantara won SD-31, turning a D seat into an IDC seat. In the Assembly, incumbents Markey (D, LD-30), Cancel (D, LD-65), and Linares (D, LD-72) lost. LD-133 incumbent Bill Nojay (R) posthumously won his primary.

In Rhode Island, State Sens. Pichardo (D, SD-2) and Walaska (D, SD-30) lost to bold progressive challengers, while five State Reps. lost: Palangio (D, LD-3), DeSimone (D, LD-5), Naughton (D, LD-21), and Malik (D, LD-67)….

More….

Political Roundup for August 2nd, 2016…Trump’s lack of a Ground game…RRH Elections…

Reminder that we have primaries in Missouri, Michigan, Kansas, and Washington tonight. Come back for our liveblog at 8p ET, and reread our previews of all the races right here.

President

Trump: The Republican nominee’s fundraising struggles are bad enough that we could see real consequences on the results.

Some scenarios that experienced Republican hands are starting to consider: States where Hillary Clinton has dozens of extra campaign offices versus Trump — or an extra 100 staffers. Or where teams do not have enough warm bodies to keep pace during early voting. Or where field organizers have to deputize volunteers to handle what is traditionally done by paid professionals. Or where aides have to effectively ignore media markets beyond the major cities since the bank account dipped so low.

The field aspect is particularly interesting. Normally field efforts from rival campaigns kind of neutralize each other and are drowned out by the noise of other ground efforts in the field. However, in some places the lack of a Trump presence at all and diminished size of the RNC Victory program mean us nerds can see the real true impact of field without much outside interference. Nice for political science, bad for Republicans.

Cruz: In the wake of his call for Republicans to vote their conscience. it has now become clear that Sen. Ted Cruz’s donor problems extend much further than the generous Mercer family.

Stein / Turner: Former Ohio State Sen. and Bernie Sanders surrogate Nina Turner (D -> G?) has been offered a spot on the Green Party ticket and is considering taking the nomination. Stein and the Greens have been desperate to get some of the Bernie Bros’ enthusiasm to rub off on their long-declining minor party, degraded by years of infighting with supporters of Ralph Nader and some inept national campaigns…..

More….

Political Roundup for July 8th, 2016…# DumpTrump actions…RRH Elections

President:

#DumpTrump: Donald Trump’s campaign lacks a sufficient number of supportive delegates to stop a delegate revolt at the Republican National Convention. Trump’s own campaign believes they only have the firm support of around 888 delegates with 682 delegates believed to be firmly anti-Trump. That leaves 903 potential swing votes who could have the power to dump Trump and save the GOP and beat Hillary Clinton in November.

Better for America: A nonpartisan group founded by conservative donor John Kingston, that hopes to put an independent candidate on the ballot in November celebrated its first victory on Thursday when it gained ballot access in New Mexico. The group is poised to gain ballot access in several more states in the next several weeks and hopes to be on the ballot in 25 states by the end of the month.

Johnson: According to the Pew Poll Gary Johnson is beating Donald Trump among the 18-29 year olds. Their poll finds Hillary Clinton leading this age demographic with 47% followed by Johnson at 22% and Trump at 21%.

Stein: Green Party candidate Jill Stein hasn’t shied away from calling for Hillary Clinton to be prosecuted over her mishandling of classified information and endangering national security.

Trump: Here’s a fun game. Click on the link and try to pick out which picture is of a Donald Trump mansion and which is of one of a Saddam Hussein palace. The two men apparently have the same taste in architecture and interior design….

More ….

Political Roundup for May 9th, 2016…RRH Elections

Welcome back to the roundup this week! As you dig into the stories and election results from this weekend, please keep our site policy regarding the presidential race in mind, detailed here:

Any discussion of the presidential race should be in the context of an electoral strategy or political perspective, and add genuinely novel insight or information in that respect, rather than solely based on your personal preferences or policy beliefs.

We pride ourselves on welcoming a diverse array of viewpoints within the right-of-center community, so we will attempt to maintain a relatively neutral stance on the merits of Trump vs. Non-Trump options. When placed firmly in the context of the political/electoral situation, incidentally mentioning support for Trump, Gary Johnson, another third-party candidate, or alternative options are all permissible. However, we are not a Democratic site and active cheerleading for Hillary, even by Republicans, will not be permitted.

Finally, the real reason this site exists is downballot politics and we will be emphasizing those races more heavily going forward. We recognize that the presidential race is a topic of great interest to our community and deeply relevant to the downballot races. However, there are many other places to discuss the presidency, and literally no other sites truly focus on congressional and state races from a national and right-of-center perspective. Therefore, we will be attempting to highlight those races more in our roundups going forward; we hope you will join us in discussing those races in the comments too.

We have a lot of House coverage today for such discussion. Also be sure to check back later today for our previews of tomorrow’s WV and NE primaries. Without further ado…

President

Romney: Bill Kristol met with Mitt Romney on Thursday and discussed the possibility of the 2012 Republican nominee running as an independent or (more likely) at least endorsing such an independent candidate.

Ron Paul / Rand / Trump: Jesse Benton, the former Ron Paul and Mitch McConnell campaign manager who lately took turns at a Rand Paul and Trump super PAC, finally was convicted of paying a (then) state senator in Iowa for his endorsement of Ron Paul in the 2012 presidential primar. Two other aides were also convicted on the same charges.

GA-Pres: A new Landmark poll has Trump barely leading Clinton 42%-41% in Georgia.

MA-Pres: For Suffolk, Hillary led the Donald 55%-31% in a poll taken last week.

TX-Pres: Today is the deadline for an independent presidential candidate to file for the ballot in Texas. This means the Libertarian and Green Party nominees will be the only third party candidates on the ballot (there is a small chance state parties can go rogue, as Constitution Party affiliates have done in the past. However, LNC Executive Director Wes Benedict once ran the TX LP, so I see the odds of such a defection fairly low). The next similar deadline is North Carolina early in June, but this just confirms a conservative third party challenge to Trump would be more a protest vehicle and less a viable electoral campaign.

WA-Pres: With the usual caveat that Clinton has this thing in the bag, Sanders got good results out of Washington, where the state party finally broke down some district-level results Saturday that gave him a big delegate haul.

Delegates: Weigel reports that the Cruz campaign has mostly left its delegates in a kind of limbo, saying “There has been no instruction to stand down, and no hint that the results can be overturned.” However, the solicitation for slates, from recruiting high-level delegate candidates to phone banking convention attendees for ID and persuasion, is over.

This has left an uneven impact for the RNC. For delegates already elected, it looks like most (though not all) will attend the convention as planned.  Some places simply continued as expected, like how MN-2 elected a pro-Cruz slate last Saturday. However, in Texas where the state convention takes place next weekend (with yours truly in attendance), many prominent Cruz delegate candidates like State Sen. Konni Burton and Rafael Cruz are dropping out. Without that support, it’s unclear how the races will turn out without a cohesive anti-Trump effort, especially on the statewide nominations committee where Cruz backers were expected to make a power play….

More…

Political Roundup for May 3rd, 2016…Maine GOP Sen Susan Collins for Trump VP?….RRH Elections….

President:

California: Trump’s recent surge has not missed the Golden State, as a SUSA poll gives the Billionaire a commanding a 54-20-16 lead over Cruz and Kasich. Notably, Trump is polling 6 points better than Cruz against Clinton here, and is trailing Clinton by 22 points compared to Romney’s 23 point loss here in 2012. This poll also has Democrats Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez advancing in the state’s Washington-style Top-two Senate Primary, though it doesn’t give the specific numbers.

Florida: A recent poll of Florida has Cruz barely doing better than Trump in the GE, while Rubio has a narrowly positive image in the state. Murphy (D) is also leading all Senate match-ups except against Rubio, who beats him by 8, but seeing as Murphy’s numbers don’t change much at all between the match-ups, I’m not sure how reliable his leads are. If nothing else, it suggests that Rubio does potentially have a future in Florida electoral politics despite getting walloped there by Trump this year. Gov 2018?

Johnson: The Libertarian Presidential candidate and former Republican New Mexico Governor has make a direct appeal to anti-Trump Republicans, asking for their votes. I fully expect Johnson to poll in the mid teens for a while but slowly fade away as the election gets closer and closer, mimicking the trajectories of all of the notable 3rd party candidates in recent years. This goes double for when people start actually paying attention to what policies the Libertarian party usually runs on. Who’s up for withdrawing from NATO?

#NeverTrump: Very visible cracks are beginning to show in the ranks of the #NeverTrump brigades. Rick Perry recent said that he’d vote for Trump at the end of the day, and even Bill Kristol said that we should “never say never” regarding Trump, though he later tried to walk it back. A Trump win in Indiana probably opens the floodgates of acceptance as it would more or less signal the end of any realistic way for Trump to be denied a majority of the pledged delegates.

Ohio: PPP did a poll of Ohio. Of note is that Cruz is doing even worse than Trump is against Clinton, which I’d normally be suspicious of given PPP’s history of producing what I would call “tactically damaging” poll results for Republicans in the past, but given that a number of other recent polls have Trump doing better than Cruz, I’d say its not impossible.

Rubio: Marco Rubio is reportedly holding off on endorsing Cruz because he’s worried that the association might hurt his own future runs for political office. He still says he supports Cruz, and has been doing work behind the scenes, but in all honesty I wouldn’t want to be tied to the rapidly sinking ship that is the Cruz campaign at this point either.

Trump: Democrats are planning a massive ad blitz on Trump after the California Primaries, where they expect him to effectively sew up the nomination. This is the same strategy the Democrats used on Romney in 2012, though I’m not sure how well it will work given that Trump, unlike Romney, pretty much generates his own media attention. You can’t really catch him napping or unable to answer. Either way, this will be the test of whether or not Trump really is hugging his floor, or if the GOP is just staggeringly incompetent when it comes to political attacks.

Trump-VP: When asked whether or not she would accept Trump’s Vice Presidential nomination if offered, Susan Collins basically refused to answer the question. Trump could do worse for VP than the Maine moderate with a strong independent brand, though this would probably sink Collin’s attempts at Re-election if she does accept. Most likely this is Collins just trying not to piss of Trump supporters in her state…..

More….

Political Roundup for April 12th, 2016…Trump (And Hillary ) Strong in New York….RRH Elections

President:

Kasich-Campaign: Kasich’s Campaign has sent out a memo to supporters in Pennsylvania, erroneously claiming that the state awards delegates proportionally. This marks the second time in a month Kasich’s campaign has made this sort of mistake.

New York: A New Marist Poll has Donald Trump over 50% in the state, leading Kasich and Cruz 54-21-18. Of note is the fact that Marist is predicting that the Likely Voters are going to be better for Trump than the overall voters, which hasn’t really been true so far, but New York is the first state where Trump is actually getting institutional support. It’ll be interesting to see what % he winds up with.

Oregon: The Beaver State’s presidential primary is starting to heat up in advance of the May 17th primary. Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders seem to have a head start on organizing in the state, and both of them need wins here to clinch their party’s nod.

Trump-VP: Who would be Trump’s Vice-presidential pick? Trump lists off a number of odd names, including Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Scott Walker; though I’m not sure if any of them actually want to be tied to Trump….

More….

Note….

That same NY Marist poll has Clinton  up 55-41 on Sanderes with likely and potential Democratic voters….The poll is a big one with 2,000 or so respondents…..

The Dog….