Tag Archives: Republican Party

A Government Shutdown Is A Bad Idea…

Erick Erickson’s blog features a Conservative arguing against his parties adopted leaders call for a  ‘Wall’ money or a Government shutdown…
By   @ Resurgent


There are some issues that conservatives of good conscience can disagree on and remain well within core conservative principles. One of these is the issue of shutting down the government. As President Trump and congressional Republicans consider shutting down the government over funding for the “big, beautiful wall,” they should avoid falling into what is Democrat trap.

The core problem for Republicans is a lack of votes. Although Republicans have a majority in both houses of Congress, the margins are slim and they lack the 60 votes required to end a Democrat filibuster. As a legislative strategy, a government shutdown does nothing to resolve this problem.

The only way for Republicans to pass a bill funding the wall – or anything else for that matter – is to make Democrats and moderate Republicans change their votes. The way to do that is to sweeten the pot. To give Democrats something they want in exchange for something that Republicans want.

A shutdown would do the opposite. It would be a combative policy that would further alienate Democrats and give them no incentive at all to vote for the Republican bill. In fact, a government shutdown would play directly into the hands of Democrats who want nothing more than for the Trump Administration to fail….


Did Trump grow the Republican party?

Politico does NOT think so….

During his triumphant return to the stage at the Conservative Political Action Conference, President Trump — a onetime curiosity who now dictates the direction the wind blows — made an unexpected and erroneous aside. Well, he made lots of those, but this one in particular was interesting.

“You know, we haven’t been as a group given credit for this, but look at how much bigger our party has gotten during this cycle,” he said. “During the early days when we had 17 people running, the primaries, millions and millions of people were joining. I won’t say it was because of me, but it was. And we have an amazing, strong, powerful party.”

Trump’s speeches often have a skipping-record quality, where he’ll keep rehashing applause lines even well after they make any sense. He regularly bashes Hillary Clinton, for example, as though he still has her looming as an opponent on the horizon. This claim about the Republican Party is a skip, too; he has been saying it for a while.

It started before the primaries. The 2016 election saw a legitimately big surge in turnout among Republican voters, as indicated in data from the U.S. Election Atlas.

But millions more Republican primary voters is not the same as millions more Republicans. Politico looked at who was turning out in the primaries and found that the new voters were heavily people who didn’t usually vote in primaries but did in the general. In other words, Trump was ginning up interest in primary voting, not in the Republican Party.

What’s more, Trump was likely inspiring people to come out and vote both for and against him. He ended up getting less than half of the votes cast in the primary — and more people cast votes for someone other than the eventual nominee than in any other cycle in history….


The Right Wing Nuts got beat in this weeks primaries…

Donald Trump seems to have had NOT coattail’s on Tuesday…..

Neither did the Conservative  RightWing Nuts…..

The Grand Ole party types did fine…..

All the talk about Donald Trump CHANGING the Republican Party may turn out to be just that….


It turns out the ultimate year of the outsider is pretty much limited to Donald Trump.

Establishment-aligned GOP primary candidates for Congress beat conservative challengers this summer in just about every major matchup, a stark reversal of the dynamic that’s driven Republican politics since 2010.

Tea party candidates failed to take out a single GOP incumbent this year; among the higher-profile targets who survived were Sen. John McCain of Arizona, House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady of Texas and Reps. John Shimkus of Illinois and Bill Shuster of Pennsylvania.

More glaring, given the difficulty of toppling an incumbent, was the inability of conservatives groups like the Club for Growth and Senate Conservatives Fund to capture more than a handful of open seats, as conservative candidates who pledged to vote with the far-right House Freedom Caucus fell to contenders backed by mainstream Republican groups, including two in Arizona and Florida on Tuesday.

The results upended recent GOP primary history, in which establishment candidates have consistently been on defense trying to shield incumbents from challengers from their right. This year, establishment-aligned groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce joined with Joe Ricketts’ Ending Spending group (which has also backed more conservative candidates in the past) to not only fend off challengers but proactively target seats.


Clinton vs Trump…She starts with a good size advantage….

The Electoral College State map works very much to her favor right out of box against a Donald Trump GOP nominee….(For Ted Cruz it would be even better for Clinton)…..

Trump has worked hard to piss off vast blocks of voters (non-white) that have supported President Obama TWICE in his election runs….

One would assume that we could add a good amount of women to Hillary Clinton’s numbers and you really do NOT see HOW Donald Trump could possibly win the Presidency….

But as will be repeated over and over again?

Donald Trump, the performer, IS a Wild Card…

Politico reported Monday on a Florida poll conducted for a business group in the state that shows Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 13 points and Ted Cruz by nine.

Why is that important? Because if Clinton wins Florida and carries the 19 states (plus D.C.) that have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the last six elections, she will be the 45th president. It’s that simple.

Here’s the underlying math. If Clinton wins the 19 states (and D.C.) that every Democratic nominee has won from 1992 to 2012, she has 242 electoral votes. Add Florida’s 29 and you get 271. Game over.

The Republican map – whether with Trump, Cruz or the ideal Republican nominee (Paul Ryan?) as the standard-bearer – is decidedly less friendly. There are 13 states that have gone for the GOP presidential nominee in each of the last six elections. But they only total 102 electorate votes. That means the eventual nominee has to find, at least, 168 more electoral votes to get to 270. Which is a hell of a lot harder than finding 28 electoral votes.

While his dismal numbers among women and Hispanics, to name two groups, don’t help matters and could – in a worst-case scenario – put states like Arizona and even Utah in play for Democrats, the map problems that face the GOP have very, very little to do with Trump or even Cruz.

Instead they are, largely, demographic problems centered on the GOP’s inability to win any large swath of non-white voters…..



There is a quiet thought that has been reoccuring in the media (Conservtive  and General Political Media) that some Conservatives and other Rep[ublican’s are gonna sit back and let Trump get ran over so that they can reclaim their party back …..

The nomination race will be decided by the Democratic and Republican party rulers…NOT the voters in the process…

The American Presidential nomination process is run by the political parties as has been pointed out here REPEATEDLY 

NOT the Government….Not even public events or processes…

The political parties are PRIVATE concerns…

As Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders campaign handlers are keenly aware of these days….Requests by both campaign’s in the media to change the rules have fallen on deaf ears….

The contests are played by the party rules….

And those rules are made to expressly keep guys like Trump and Sanders from coming in a wrestling the party away from the party regulars….

If supporters of Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders feel stymied by the delegate process, that is because it was designed years ago precisely to make it difficult for candidates like them to become their nominee — candidates who party leaders believe, rightly or wrongly, could never win in November.

Like with any private members-only club — political parties are not official government entities — the party leaders exercise considerable control over which candidate gets their endorsement and the attendant privilege of using their political infrastructure, financial support and loyal voter base, without which winning in November is all but impossible.

In the earliest days of the republic, members of Congress determined the presidential nominees, cutting ordinary Americans out of the process. The national convention system has evolved over more than a century and a half to gradually decentralize the decision making.

But not completely. The role of Democratic superdelegates was created after the 1980 election to ensure that rank-and-file voters could not easily vote in an activist candidate. Superdelegates include major Democratic elected officials like governors and members of Congress; national and state party leaders; and notable party figures like former presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Democrats have added more superdelegates over the years, and this year they will make up 16 percent of all delegates.

Each of their votes has equal weight to delegates awarded through primaries and caucuses. In New Hampshire, for example, the site of Mr. Sanders’s first big victory, he won about 150,000 votes and 15 traditional delegates. Hillary Clinton won nine traditional delegates. But because six of New Hampshire’s superdelegates are supporting her (the other two are uncommitted), she is effectively tied with Mr. Sanders in the state.

Republicans have far fewer superdelegates. But the way the party conducts elections — a complex, layered system of contests that selects local delegates who in turn select state delegates who then vote for national delegates — can be difficult for newcomers without sophisticated operations to penetrate, as Mr. Trump is discovering.


The Republicans DID want to reach out for more ‘different’ people, Right?

Reince Priebus, the guy running the Republican National Committee, spend money after the GOPer’s lost to Barack Obama the second time to find out what the party should do to fix the problem within his party…..

The answer came back…..

Widen your base….


That was music to Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio’s ears, since they had , at the time, idea’s about immigration that would appeal to Latinos…..

THAT was all good…..


The guy leading the Republican’s efforts to get back into the White House is now an businessman/entertainer, who has been a registered Democrat, twice, an Independent and now claims to be a Republican…for the second time…..

Worst than THAT?

He’s pumping up his numbers by thumbing his nose at the GOP elite and establishment types and running on what seems like a cloaked racist policy line…..

Time and again this Dog has called him fading out….

But as soon as he gets up and spews his insults against women, latinos, muslims or anyone else that doesn’t agree with him….He get MAX media coverag and his polling numbers climb….

Hidden away in the same numbers is the fact that his support is weak and that against Hillary Clinton, who will be the Democratic Party choice….He’d probably lose….

So Mr Priebus and his guys have been reduced to standing on the sidelines as his report and it’s conclusions about increasing the parties base gets buried by the new P.T. Barnum of 2015….(Running a circus on anger and fear as the main attraction’s)….with the Ring Master as…….

One Donald Trump…..

Hillary Clinton probably can’t be more happy everyday…..



Oh, yea….

And remember that ‘No’ third party run promise?

Donald Trump is refusing to rule out an independent White House run if he fails to win the Republican presidential nomination.

“Well, I’m going to have to see what happens,” Trump said on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday. “I will see what happens. I have to be treated fairly.”…..


The GOP looks to the 2016 Electoral College….

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus is already addressing a problem his party will seek to solve….

The tactical political war to get to 270 electoral votes come November 2016, officially LESS than two years away…..

While his party ruled last night…

The Democratic President still has the VETO power over anything the GOP led Congress sends to his desk…

Now EVERYBODY out there has been jabbering about how the Democrats have a bullet proof lock on the electoral college going into 2016 with a Hillary run that should take a few Southern states that Obama couldn’t…

So the GOPer’s , with last nights numbers THINK they could change things….

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said key GOP victories Tuesday night are a positive sign for the party heading into 2016.

The GOP had success this cycle, particularly in purple states like Colorado and Virginia, because it ran strong candidates and built a better ground game through improving its digital and data operations, he asserted.

“We’re winning the races that we need to win and we’re gonna win tough races that we need to win as well, and that bodes well for the map in 2016,” Priebus said at a news conference Tuesday night at RNC headquarters with the chairmen of the House and Senate GOP campaign committees.

“You have to be able to make the sale that you can get to 270 in the electoral college,” he added. “Well, that means winning a purple state or two in a good environment.”

While he wasn’t popping open the champagne, Priebus predicted the GOP would likely take control of the Senate later on Tuesday night.

“We feel pretty good right now. It’s been a good night so far,” Priebus said. “We feel like getting to six tonight is clearly in the view and we couldn’t be happier with what’s been happening around the country.”

“You have to be able to make the sale that you can get to 270 in the electoral college,” he added. “Well, that means winning a purple state or two in a good environment.”


FiveThirtyEight gives GOPer’s 65% chance on the Senate….


Right after Nate Silver goes us that headlines he say this….


Republicans are favored to take the Senate, at least in our view; the FiveThirtyEight forecast model gives them a 64 percent chance of doing so.

The reasons for the GOP advantage are pretty straightforward. Midterm elections are usually poor for the president’s party, and the Senate contests this year are in states where, on average, President Obama won just 46 percent of the vote in 2012.1 Democrats are battling a hangover effect in these states, most of which were last contested in 2008, a high-water mark for the party. On the basis of polling and the other indicators our model evaluates, Republicans are more likely than not to win the six seats they need to take over the Senate. This isn’t news, exactly; the same conditions held way back in March.

An equally important theme is the high degree of uncertainty around that outcome. A large number of states remain competitive, and Democrats could easily retain the Senate. It’s also possible that the landscape could shift further in Republicans’ direction. Our model regards a true Republican wave as possible: It gives the party almost a 25 percent chance of finishing with 54 or more Senate seats once all the votes are counted……



…from the above linked piece…..

‘This is the sort of year in which there are likely to be several missed calls — it would be a minor miracle if any of the models, certainly including ours, manage to go 35-for-36 or 36-for-36.

Nonetheless, Republicans have the more robust map and more tolerance for error. That’s why the odds are in their favor.’

Democrats need minority votes…Will race bring out the numbers?

 The issue of race is a very strong issue for most minorities who tend to lean Democratic but do not voting in large numbers during Midterm Elections….

Democrats are injecting race into the 2014 midterm elections amid fears that a drop-off in minority voters could severely cost them at the polls this fall.

Democratic leaders in Congress and administration officials have suggested GOP opposition to policies ranging from immigration reform to ObamaCare are, at least partly, motivated by race.

More broadly, they’ve suggested conservative Tea Party criticism of President Obama is based on the fact that he is black.

Democrats reject charges that the rhetoric is a concerted political calculation on their part as they try to retain their Senate majority and make gains in the House.

“You turn out voters by demonstrating your past performance and what you’re promising to do for a constituent in the future,” said Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D-N.C), a member of the Congressional Black Caucus. “I don’t call that race-baiting. I call that a political platform.”

Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.), the only African-American Republican in Congress and a leader in his party’s outreach to minority voters, slammed the perceived approach.

“What alienates people is getting all of us stirred by the notion that we should be afraid of somebody else. [Democrats’] comments are designed to evoke fear from my perspective,” said Scott. “It’s unfortunate, and it should be shameful, frankly.”

But Democrats haven’t shied away from using it as a tactic. Earlier this year, both Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) suggested Republican opposition to immigration reform was partially motivated by racism.


Rick Perry lectures the President who begs for Money and ducks ….

President Obama has put Texas Republican Governor Rick Perry in the spotlight in way Perry could never do…

He was able to jump ALL OVER Obama yesterday on immigration….

The President then did a presser in which he seemed contrite ….

Furthermore, Obama is now back begging the Republicans for money and Immigration reform, while refusing to go to see a problem of large humanitarian failure’s…..

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, a Republican who has seen thousands of unaccompanied children flood across his state’s border, has seized the spotlight in recent days to become the national face of opposition to President Obama’s immigration policies.

Perry, Texas’s governor for the last 14 years and a politician with his eye on the White House, has helped Republicans rally around calls for the National Guard to be sent to the border.

He has also stoked pressure on Obama to visit the border during his trip to Texas on Wednesday.
Perry’s persistent cries led the White House to invite him to an immigration-specific meeting in Dallas on Wednesday. It has also positioned the governor as a foil of sorts to Obama, helping to secure a spot for the governor should he choose to make a second run for the presidency in 2016.

“This gives Gov. Perry an opportunity to take very legitimate and timely shots at the White House and the president’s failed leadership and philosophy to tour his expertise in border security and get to the heart of the immigration issue,” said Raymond Sullivan, a former adviser to Perry.

“I think it positions himself as someone who is fighting the president,” added Matt Mackowiak, a GOP strategist based in Austin, Texas. “That’s what Republicans want, and more importantly, what Republican voters want.”

“He really had the president on defense,” Mackowiak continued. “I think he outflanked him strategically.”


Texas Gov. Rick Perry said Wednesday that President Obama’s refusal to visit the border in Texas was “no different” than former President George W. Bush’s initial reaction to Hurricane Katrina.

“I think about the criticism that George W. Bush got when he didn’t go to New Orleans at Katrina,” Perry told Fox News Wednesday night, just hours after meeting with Obama in Dallas. “This is no different.”

Perry isn’t the first politician to compare Obama’s reaction to the flood of migrant children crossing the border to Bush’s handling of the devastating hurricane, which left hundreds dead. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) made the comparison in another interview with Fox News.

“I’m sure that President Bush thought the same thing, that he could just look at everything from up in the sky, and then he owned it after a long time,” Cuellar said. “So I hope this doesn’t become the Katrina moment for President Obama, saying that he doesn’t need to come to the border. He should come down.”


The President’s continual request for more money for the immigration problems is NOT any more of  a sure thing than it was in the past….

Republicans are sharply divided over how to handle President Obama’s $3.7 billion border request.

Conservatives on Wednesday balked at the administration’s price tag for providing relief to authorities overwhelmed by the tens of thousands of children illegally crossing the border.

“I think it’s a charade,” said Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.), a Tea Party favorite who suggested the administration can tackle the crisis without new funding from Congress.
Yet with the crisis escalating and Obama passing the ball into Congress’s court by asking for legislation, there’s an emerging concern that Republicans could suffer a political backlash if they fail to act.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a longtime supporter of an immigration overhaul, said failure to provide new funds will exacerbate the crisis while handing Obama and the Democrats a political victory heading into the midterm elections.

“If we do that, then we’re going to get blamed for perpetuating the problem,” Graham told reporters Wednesday.

Obama sought to raise the pressure on Congress by calling for lawmakers to make quick work of his request.

In public comments in Dallas, Obama called on Congress to “fast track” the legislation.

Republicans will likely mark up their own legislation in response to the crisis, and it will almost certainly focus more heavily on efforts to bolster border security.



President Obama HAS mentioned that he has ordered ALL of the federal agencies involved in the border situation to brief him and do the best they can to elevate the situation…

Chris Christie thinks he’s Ok outside Jersey…

Christie is stuck in neutral no matter what he says…..

His future is in the New Jersey US Attorney’s hands….

THAT’s the question….

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie pushed back Monday against criticism that he wouldn’t appeal to voters outside of the New York-New Jersey region, saying “it’s all garbage.”

“I hear people all the time saying, ‘You wouldn’t play well in the South’, or, ‘You wouldn’t play well in Iowa’ — it’s all garbage,” the Republican governor and speculated candidate for 2016 said on SportsRadio 94WIP Philadelphia.

He continued, “People are people and, yeah, there are some regional differences in our country, but in the end people like people who are genuine and who are real. Whether that’s in the media, whether that’s in sports, whether it’s in business or politics.”

“I would rather lose than try to pretend to be somebody else,” he said.



Ted Cruz credits the Government shutdown in GOP efforts for the Senate…

I mentioned here after the shutdown that Conservative Tea Party Types thought they won with the shutdown ….

Several people here though I was wrong…

I wasn’t….

Senator Ted Cruz, true to my word is now gloating about the shutdown as a win for his Tea Party rightwingnuts…..

Never-mind that most of his people have been unsuccessful in the last few primary contests…

He doesn’t care…..

He’s gonna try to sell it anyways…..

Republicans have a strong chance of winning back the Senate thanks to the government shutdown fight provoked by conservatives, according to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

Speaking at the Republican Leadership Conference on Saturday, Cruz said the demands from he and other Tea Party lawmakers is a key reason the GOP is in a good position, suggesting that party “graybeards” or the GOP establishment did not appreciate that fact.

“They’re reaping the fruits of the battle, which is perfectly fine,” Cruz said, according to The Washington Post. “But we need to take a moment to acknowledge the lesson of the battle.”
The two-week government shutdown from last fall was widely seen as a defeat for Republicans. GOP lawmakers refused to fund the government without including language that would defund ObamaCare, but ultimately agreed to reopen the government with effectively zero concessions. Polls at the time showed GOP popularity taking the biggest hit from the shutdown as the Republican Party was identified as shouldering most of the blame.