Tag Archives: Projections/Predictions/Forecasts

Doug Jones Is Just A Normal Polling Error Away From A Win In Alabama

…from FiveThirtyEight….whuich is hedging their bets,,,,

Things seem to be going Roy Moore’s way. President Trump endorsed him. The Republican National Committee is back to supporting him. And Moore, who has been accused of sexual contact with women when they were underaged, has led by an average of 3 percentage points in polls1 taken within 21 days of the Dec. 12 special Senate election in Alabama. The betting markets give Moore about an 80 percent chance of victory — roughly the same chance they gave Hillary Clinton just before the 2016 presidential election.

Before Election Day last year, we advised caution, however — polls aren’t perfect at even the best of times, Trump had an advantage in the Electoral College, and there were a lot of undecided voters. So what’s our advice heading into the Alabama election? Well, it’s the same — be cautious — but for slightly different reasons.

A look at all U.S. Senate election polls since 19982 shows that their average error — how far off the polls were from the actual election result — is more than a percentage point higher than the average error in presidential polling. Also, Alabama polls have been volatile, this is an off-cycle special election with difficult-to-predict turnout, and there haven’t been many top-quality pollsters surveying the Alabama race. So even though Moore is a favorite, Democrat Doug Jones is just a normal polling error away from winning. (Or, by the same token, Moore could win comfortably.)….

The bottom line is that with less than a week to go in the campaign, Moore seems to have the edge — but he’s far from a sure thing….


Sabato’s updated House rating changes favor Democrats next year

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato’s Crystal Ball gives his sites latest look at next years House midterm races….

He has 25 changes…..

Most help the Democrats who could be getting a wave to retake the majority in the House of Representatives and return Nancy Pelosi to the Speakership….Something that would slam a break on the Grand Ole Parties activities….

The consensus among most political pundits is that Democrats WILL achieve significant House gains next year…

And these factor’s…..

Trump has historically low approval ratings….

The generic ballot polls strongly favor Democrats over Republicans in House races…

The majority held Congress is pushing for unpopular legislation about healthcare, taxes and immigration…

Democrats seem to be making a comeback in locals and state races…

In the aftermath of the 2014 midterm election, when the party that didn’t hold the White House (the Republicans) gained ground in the House for the 36th time in 39 midterms since the Civil War, I wrote the following in the Center for Politics’ postmortem on the election, The Surge:

Practically speaking, though, House Democrats might have to root for the other party in the 2016 presidential race. Why? Because given what we know about midterm elections almost always going against the president’s party in the House, perhaps the next best chance for the Democrats to win the House will be in 2018 — if a Republican is in the White House.

We didn’t see many House Democrats rooting for Donald Trump to win the general election in 2016, but the simple fact of his election made a Democratic House takeover much more likely in the 2018 midterm just because of the longstanding trend for the presidential party to lose ground in the House. The electorate often uses the midterm to put a check on the executive, particularly if that executive is unpopular. “The midterm election pattern,” writes Andrew Busch in his study of midterm elections, Horses in Midstream, “virtually guarantees that the president’s party will be hurt at regular intervals. The extent of that damage may vary considerably, but the fact of it rarely does.”

We know we’ve been a broken record on the point of the presidential party midterm penalty, but it is so well-established that it merits frequent mention. Obviously, the world changed considerably when President Trump won the White House, and the political burden of holding the presidency shifted from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party when that happened.

We’re a little bit past the halfway point between the last national election, in 2016, and the next national election, in 2018. In that time, the Democrats’ chances of winning the House have only seemed to rise, based on a number of indicators. Those are….


Cook Political Report thinks a Democratic ‘Wave’ is building for next years Midterm Elections…

Cook editor writer Amy Walter survey’s the political field along with Donald Trump’s knuckle dragging and thinks there will be a repeat of the 2006 Democratic wave is forming….

Back in 2006 the Democrats took the House, Senate and Governor’s  jobs off of George W. Bush’s watch…Donald Trump and the Republicans seem to be trying hard for a do over….

…The analysis follows last week’s first major elections since the 2016 presidential race. Democrats gained major victories across the country, including sweeping statewide elections in Virginia and winning the New Jersey governor’s race.

Last month, Cook Political Report shifted 12 House districts in favor of Democrats a year ahead of the 2018 midterms.

A poll released at the beginning of November showed Democrats hold an 11-point lead over Republicans on a generic House ballot….


Special Alabama US Senate Race Moves to Toss-Up?

All of the polling except a few STILL show Roy Moore ahead of his Democratic challanger Dog Jones….

The politicans in-state seem to be pretty much behind Moore while each day brings more Republicans in Washington DC against him…

Will this swiring around ?

The race might be a toss-up….

One of the biggest questions is turnout. Will Republican voters who never supported Moore show up to the polls? Can Democrats turn out their voters, particularly African-Americans and white voters who supported Strange, in an oddly timed election two weeks before Christmas, especially considering the campaign had to build a Democratic turnout operation from scratch? Allies of Jones believe his record, including prosecuting the KKK bombers who killed four African-American girls in a Birmingham church in 1963, will help him receive more votes from African-Americans than a typical 63-year-old white guy.

When it became clear after the primary that Moore could be the GOP nominee, we moved the Senate race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican as an acknowledgment that the former judge’s style and reputation could cause him to underperform. We even went to Alabama to talk to Jones — who had just won the Democratic nomination and had yet to build a ground operation — and assessed whether his campaign was prepared in the event that external factors dropped an opportunity in the Democrats’ laps.

Moore can still win this race, but there is enough uncertainty to move the race to Toss-up.

Three weeks is enough time for Moore to regain some political ground but also more time for more reports to surface about his past. It’s been a wild five days in the Alabama Senate race and there’s no reason to believe the twists and turns will stop over the next month….


There’s No Reason To Think Republicans Will Be In Better Shape A Year From Now

The Grand Ole party with Donald Trump in the lead seems to be hell bent over making sure they will lose their majority in one or even both houses of Congress….

…from FiveThirtyEight….

Poll(s) of the week

We’ve been telling you to pay attention to the generic congressional ballot for a while now. Well, Tuesday’s results showed why.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll and a separate CNN survey released this week both found Democrats leading Republicans by 11 percentage points on the generic ballot. That’s a big lead — the type of lead that results in wave elections like Tuesday’s. It’s also just a hair larger than the Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight average of generic ballot polls.

But the really bad news for Republicans: There’s a good chance they won’t be able to eat too much into that lead by the 2018 midterms.

The generic congressional ballot, even more than a year before a midterm, has historically been quite predictive of what will eventually occur in the following year. It was predictive in April, and it’s even more predictive now. You can see this phenomenon in the chart below. The chart shows the margin by which the presidential party leads on the generic ballot in an average of polls in October1 a year before the midterm compared with the national House margin in the midterm election. Every midterm cycle since 1938 is included, with the exception of 1942 and 1990, for which we don’t have polling at this point in the cycle.

The generic ballot polls a year from the election and the eventual House results are strongly correlated (+0.90). Importantly, past elections suggest that any big movement on the generic ballot from this point to the midterm tends to go against the president’s party.2 That movement explains why the Democrats lost ground in 2010 and 2014 in the generic ballot polls when they controlled the White House, while they maintained their lead in 2006when Republicans held the White House….



This look is BEFORE Robert Mueller get done with his investigation of Donald Trump and Company….

Nate Silver on the increasing possibility of a 2018 Democratic ‘Wave’…

The American iconic political pundit at FiveTHirtyEight reviews the Democratic good fortune’s this year and how it COULD result in a Democratic ‘Wave’ election that could remove Paul Ryan from the Speakership and return the gavel Nancy Pelosi and power to the Democrat’s….

Democrats had a really good night on Tuesday, easily claiming the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, flipping control of the Washington state Senate and possibly also the Virginia House of Delegates, passing a ballot measure in Maine that will expand Medicaid in the state, winning a variety of mayoral elections around the country, and gaining control of key county executive seats in suburban New York.

They also got pretty much exactly the results you’d expect when opposing a Republican president with a 38 percent approval rating.

That’s not to downplay Democrats’ accomplishments. Democrats’ results were consistent enough, and their margins were large enough, that Tuesday’s elections had a wave-like feel. That includes how they performed in Virginia, where Ralph Northam won by considerably more than polls projected. When almost all the toss-up races go a certain way, and when the party winning those toss-up races also accomplishes certain things that were thought to be extreme long shots (such as possibly winning the Virginia House of Delegates), it’s almost certainly a reflection of the national environment.

But we didn’t need Tuesday night to prove that the national environment was good for Democrats; there was plenty of evidence for it already. In no particular order of importance:

Last thing: while Tuesday’s results may not change the reality of the 2018 outlook all that much, it could change perceptions about it, and that could have some knock-on effects. (Politicians are often like “Morning Joe” panelists in how they think about elections.) Republicans’ retirement issues may get even worse; Democrats’ recruiting may get even better. Republicans might think twice about how they’re proceeding on tax reform — especially given that their current plans could have negative effects on just the sorts of wealthy coastal suburbs where Republicans performed poorly on Tuesday….


Rough waters for Democratic US Senate hopes….

Larry Sabato’s people game out the chances of Chuck Schumer getting Mitch McConnell’s job as Senate Majority Leader….

….from August….*(Sen .Corker IS Retiring….Sen. Collins is thinking hard about it)

Right now we have four Toss-ups: two held by Republicans, and two held by Democrats. If one assumes a 50-50 split on the Toss-ups, and every other seat goes the way we currently rate it, there would be no net change in the Senate. Given the map, that would be a substantial Democratic accomplishment and a missed opportunity for Republicans. But the election’s a long way off and the potential exists for Republicans to make gains next year, too, even if the president’s approval rating doesn’t improve. That would be an unusual result historically, but history is merely a guide. It guarantees nothing, particularly on a Senate map where Democrats are stretched historically thin.

One final point: It is highly unusual that there have not been any retirements so far*. Usually there are at least a couple of open seats, and typically more than that, according to the University of Minnesota Humphrey School of Public Affairs’ Smart Politics blog. This is just a guess, but there probably will be at least an open seat or two by the time we get to next fall. Maybe one of the long-rumored retirees, like Feinstein in California or Hatch in Utah, ultimately opts to retire after making moves in recent months to run again. Such a retirement would do little to the Senate bottom line because both of those states lean so heavily to one party. More impactful would be a shocker that truly changes the calculus in one of these states — like one of the Toss-up senators making the calculation later this cycle that they don’t have a path to another term, or that they don’t want another term….


Much has been made of the fact that next year Senate Democrats are defending 10 seats in states Trump won in the presidential race, while Senate Republicans are defending only one seat in a Clinton-won state, held by Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV). These represent the vast majority of the 14 total “crossover” seats in the Senate, those held by a party different than the one that captured the state in the 2016 presidential race. The other three crossover-state senators are Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), a Democrat in a Trump state up for reelection in 2020, and the aforementioned Gardner of Colorado and Collins of Maine, also up for reelection in 2020. So Republicans hold a 52-48 advantage right now despite holding only three seats in Clinton-won states, while Democrats have 11 Trump-state seats and are still in the minority.

That speaks to the GOP advantage in the Senate right now. Even though Trump lost the popular vote by two percentage points, he won 30 states in the Electoral College, while Clinton won only 20. Because all states are created equal in the Senate, the median state in the Electoral College gives us a sense of the GOP tilt of the states overall. In ranking all the states by presidential margin from most to least Republican, the median falls between Arizona and North Carolina, which Trump won by an average of about 3.6 points, so presidential performance in the median Senate seat is roughly 5.5 points to the right of the nation. That’s about the same Republican lean of the median House seat by presidential performance…..



Race Rating Change: Flake’s Arizona Senate Seat Moves to Tossup

Ten Democratic senators are running for re-election in states President Donald Trump carried in 2016, yet Republican Jeff Flake looks like the most vulnerable senator in the country right now. Even though Trump won Arizona, Flake’s adversarial relationship with the president has caused him to be vulnerable in the primary and general elections. And Arizona’s emergence as a Democratic takeover opportunity complicates GOP efforts to hold and expand their majority….


A Kasich/Hickenlopper 2020 Presidential Run?

Image result for kasich/hickenlooper

Ohio Governor John Kasich IS a Republican….

Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper IS a Democrat….

The main reason?

The obvious one…They are from the  two DIFFERENT major parties…

“The idea of a joint ticket has been discussed, but not at an organizational or planning level,” a source familiar with the discussions told CNN’s Mark Preston Friday. “What they are trying to show the country is that honorable people can disagree, but you can still problem solve together. It happens in businesses and it happens in families. Why can’t it happen in Washington?”
(The story of the Kasich-Hickenlooper ticket was first reported by Mike Allen of Axios.)
On its face, the idea has obvious appeals. People are sick of the two-party system and desperate for an alternative option. Kasich and Hickenlooper are pragmatists more than they are ideologues. And they both happen to come from swing states in a presidential general election.
But like almost everything in life, the joint Kasich-Hickenlooper ticket looks better on paper than it likely would be in practice…
image of Kasich (left) and Hickenlooper….CNN.COM

2018 Senate election results…Stays the same…Sabato…

Wouldn’t  the Democrats LOVE to come out with THAT result after next years elections….

We’re still more than a year though….

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Right now we have four Toss-ups: two held by Republicans, and two held by Democrats. If one assumes a 50-50 split on the Toss-ups, and every other seat goes the way we currently rate it, there would be no net change in the Senate. Given the map, that would be a substantial Democratic accomplishment and a missed opportunity for Republicans. But the election’s a long way off and the potential exists for Republicans to make gains next year, too, even if the president’s approval rating doesn’t improve. That would be an unusual result historically, but history is merely a guide. It guarantees nothing, particularly on a Senate map where Democrats are stretched historically thin.”

“One final point: It is highly unusual that there have not been any retirements so far. Usually there are at least a couple of open seats, and typically more than that… This is just a guess, but there probably will be at least an open seat or two by the time we get to next fall. “….


FiveThirtyEight’s look back at why the Media missed the boat on last years Presidential…

Image result for clinton/trump

In a piece written back in January (and with updated links below) Nate Silver blames just about EVERYBODY on oversimplifying last years election reporting and predictions….

He blames the polling for being overly nationalistic…

he blames the pundits and forecasters for NOT realizing the extent of damage James Comey inflicted on the Clinton campaign…

He blames the media for herd journalism and not noticing later in the campaign the changes in the polling…

He blames his own self for following the thought that Hillary Clinton could NOT lose….

And he blames the NY Times for running two shops….

One the inside one that sold the idea that Hillary Clinton WOULD win no matter what….

And the political side like the Upshot that DID notice and report the closeness of the race in the end….


I didn’t really see it but Silver claims that the media is NOW trying to make up for it’s miss by overselling the idea that Trump’s Republican support NOW is stronger than the polling shows….

Consistent polling over the last several weeks HAS shown that President Trump IS losing support down to the middle 30%’s….A level that is lower than any President in modern history….


I believe that Silver is arguing that the polls REALLY did NOT get things that far off the mark…

Trump LOST the popular vote…

Silver argues that Clinton’s big electoral win was more of Pennsylvania and Florida not the other few states….That she gained with Latino’s but lost with the Democratic bedrock vote of Blacks’…And that her ground game wasn’t all that bad.

And points NOT to Trump’s strength in campaigning, but to the loss of less educated white males in swing states….(Later polling analysis shows that Middle Class white’s in those two states also left Clinton hanging…)

The picture further goes to show that while Democrats do well in Blue states?

They are at a disadvantage in the electoral college if they cannot pull in the swing states…The idea that the popular vote demographic FAVOR Democrats is the opposite of the electoral college field…

To win you must win TWO distinctly difference election races on Presidential election day…

Here’s the link….

Winning the job of President of the United States is a HIGHLY complex endeavor and Nate Silver’s piece kinda says sometimes the win fell to a  guy who just beat people down for his adopted parties nomination and just lucked out running against an unpopular woman, who made mistakes in her personal life she couldn’t sell to the right voters….


Extreme candidates help the other guy/gal….Poll….

Another advance look and lesson for next years Midterm elections….

Extreme candidates for the House of Representatives do worse than moderates because they mobilize the opposing party to turn out to vote, according to new research from Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson of Stanford University.

Political scientists and campaign experts have been divided for decades about whether candidates are successful when they win over swing voters — those who aren’t loyal to any party — or when they encourage members of their own party to show up at the polls. The research suggests that when it comes to ideologically extreme candidates, the deciding factor might be the other party’s turnout.

Donald Trump actually LOST the popular vote by almost 3 Million…..

WashPost cautions Democrats on 2018 Midterms….

The last Washington Post/ABC poll had good news for Democrats on Trump’s support….

But a few days later the Post points to a problem Democrats had last November with Hillary Clinton’s vote numbers….

Enthusiasm …..

The Post piece linked below says Democrats are NOT up in arms against Trump…..

Most pundits have forecasted good sized gains for Democrats in the House next fall…

The WashPost view actually connect ‘;s to the way Democratic House candidates have began running  for next years election….

They are using local issues…..

Not just running on Trump, who seems to be OVER attention in the media and has been deemphasized by Democrats ….

A counter to the Post view is the decreased margin Republicans have had in the last few Special Elections for US House elections and the wins some Democrats have pulled off against Republicans in state elections post Trump….

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll offers conflicting forecasts for the 2018 midterm elections, with voters clearly preferring Democrats in control of Congress to check President Trump even as Republicans appear more motivated to show up at the polls.

A slight majority of registered voters — 52 percent — say they want Democrats to control the next Congress, while 38 percent favor Republican control to promote the president’s agenda, according to the poll.

Yet a surge in anti-Trump protests does not appear to have translated into heightened Democratic voter enthusiasm — a signal that could temper Democrats’ hopes for retaking the House majority next year.

Trump’s low approval rating, which dropped to 36 percent from 42 percent in April, could also be significant if it fails to improve in the next year.

The survey also suggests that a shifting electorate could end up propelling Democrats to major gains if voters who have skipped prior midterm elections show up to cast ballots in 2018.

The snapshot emerges just as Congress has hit a major stumbling block in its effort to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, with Republican leaders in the Senate falling short this week of the votes they need to advance their deeply unpopular bill…..