Tag Archives: Polls

Someone ‘Incredibly Enthusiastic’ about voting for Hillary Clinton explains why….

 By Ian Reifowitz   @ Daily Kos…
She’s the one that I want. To be president.


Apparently, those three letters sum up how a good number of Americans, in particular younger voters, feel about the prospect of voting for Hillary Clinton. Tina Nguyen at Vanity Fair put it as follows: “the majority of millennials, nearly all of whom disagree with Trump’s positions, are not sufficiently excited by the Democratic alternative to do anything about it.”

Granted, it’s just one survey, but look at the numbers from Quinnipiac’s poll conducted September 8 to 13. Almost half of those under age 35 say they’re voting for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. Other polling—along with Clinton’s performance among younger voters in 2008 as well as in the primary contest against Bernie Sanders—show similar problems for her.

I don’t want to focus too long on the numbers, but these kinds of figures tell me that younger Americans are probably the group with the highest percentage of persuadable voters. It’s not likely that many people saying they’d vote for Trump at this late date in the campaign are going to end up voting for Clinton. However, voters who think Trump is an unqualified bigot—and about two-thirds of those ages 18 to 39 said they did in a recent poll—should be voting for Hillary. Yet many are not. So, what are we going to do about it?

We who do support Secretary Clinton have a number of options. We can wallow in pessimism; we can get angry at those who, it seems to us, just won’t see reason; or we can try to persuade them. I think you know which is the most productive.

Separate from the fact that it is true, it is strategically important to talk about how dangerous Donald Trump is. Doing so will motivate some of our voters—and of course much of our energy should go to making sure our voters go to the polls. But others have already gotten that message about Trump—yet for them, it hasn’t translated into supporting Hillary. They need a reason to turn their vote for ‘not Trump’ into a vote for Hillary as opposed to a third-party candidate, or no one at all. I’m voting for Hillary, and not just because she’s not Trump. Here’s why….


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When Trump loses will Texas want to drop out of the Union?

In a new Public Policy Poll (D) 61% of respondents who back  Donald Trump say  they would  support their state succeding for the Unted States of America if Hillary Clinton won the Presidential election

Among ALL Texasan’s the opt-out vote drops to only 26%..which is pretty high anyways

The same poll has Hillary Clinton trailing Trump in Texas by only 6%…..The MOE id 3.2% pts….Which means Clinton just COULD be only 3% pts behind Trump, or 9%pts….

More than 3 in 5 of Donald Trump’s supporters in Texas say they would back secession if Hillary Clinton becomes president, according to a new poll.

Sixty-one percent of Texans backing Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, want out of the U.S. if Clinton, the Democratic nominee, wins, according to the Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey released Tuesday.

Twenty-nine percent of Trump’s supporters in Texas, meanwhile, favor their state staying in the union, even if the billionaire loses this November.

Among Trump supporters, 37 percent support Texas secession, while 49 percent oppose.

Overall, Tuesday’s results also found that 26 percent of voters in Texas would back the Lone Star State’s independence. Fifty-nine percent want to stay in the U.S., with 15 percent unsure…..


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New Poll… Clinton up 3 over Trump…The Comey effect…

This is the second poll out AFTER FBI Director Comey and AG Lynch passed judgement on Hillary Clinton’s messy email thing….

I’m not surprised that Clinton has taken a hit….THAT was to be expected….

But I’m ALSO NOT surprised that she REMAINS ahead of Trump in the poll….Trump still has higher unfavorables than Clinton….

The poll is HUGE, almost 8,000 sampled…..

We’ll see what other polls will say in the week or so….

I expect Clinton to bounce back in next weeks polls since Donald Trump has almost disappeared and Clinton ads are EVERYWHERE along with Dallas shooting story and Sanders now joining the rest of the Democrats against Trump….

Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has fallen to 3 points nationwide, according to a new poll.

Clinton leads Trump, 47 to 44 percent, in the NBC News/Survey Monkey poll released Tuesday.

Clinton has a 5-point edge over Trump, 48 to 43 percent, in the same poll last week.

Pollsters also found in the new survey that 82 percent think Clinton’s use of private email server as secretary of State was “not appropriate,” versus 15 percent who say it was.

Fifty-six percent also disagree with FBI Director James Comey’s recommendation last week that Clinton not face criminal charges, while 41 percent say he made the right call.

In addition, two-thirds say Clinton is neither honest nor trustworthy.

Sixty-two percent view Trump unfavorably, however, only 2 points higher than Clinton’s 60-percent rating….


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Europe STILL see’s America as a Strong Country….

Donald Trump maybe trying to sell the story that America isn’t “Great’ anymore…

But with the end f his trip to the European continent (His last NATO meeting) he spotlights and strong America that has the same issues that the rest the planet has….

As a Politico piece points out?

Under President George Bush ….The strutting ‘in your face’ America posturing caused a strong Anti-America feeling outside the American borders…

That same posture is something Donald Trump is trying to sell to those who support him….

Barack Obama maybe called the ‘apologist’….But he HAS turned around the proception of America with others nations with HIS leadership during the last almost eight years…

One always streps back from Trump’s proclamation that America is “weak’ and wonders how that can be with SO MANY people finding so many ways to come to THIS country by boat, train  airplane and even walking?

How could that be Donald?

The Brexit vote and the rise of populist parties — stoked by a combination of economic woes, skepticism of multiculturalism, and frustration with a distant Brussels bureaucracy — have frightened elites. But even as they question the European project and the political status quo, average citizens in Europe still largely embrace one key pillar of the post-World War II order: the transatlantic relationship with the United States. Rising public anger, it seems, has not led to a return of anti-Americanism.

As a new Pew Research Center survey highlights, solid majorities in nine of 10 European Union nations polled express a favorable opinion of the U.S. (Greece is the exception). Across these 10 countries a median of 77 percent say they have confidence in Obama to do the right thing in world affairs.

Rising public anger, it seems, has not led to a return of anti-Americanism.

This is a very different picture from a decade ago. As Obama nears the end of his second term in office, it’s easy to forget the dramatic impact his election had on America’s image in Europe. The anti-Americanism of the George W. Bush era was intense — he was unpopular, his foreign policy was criticized, and overall attitudes toward the U.S. turned sharply negative during his presidency. Obama’s 2008 election led to a sea of change. Only 14 percent of Germans had confidence in Bush in 2008, while an astounding 93 percent voiced confidence in Obama a year later.

And the shift in European attitudes wasn’t merely about superficial popularity. It also translated into greater support for U.S. policies….


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2016 is looking a lot like 2012 in the Presidential Race…Which is fine with Clinton…

Public Policy Polling (PPP) is out with an Analysis that points to the same demographic’s at play in the current Presidential election as the last….

PPP’s newest national poll continues to find the Presidential race shaping up pretty similarly to how the 2012 contest played out, with Hillary Clinton holding a 4 point lead that matches Barack Obama’s final margin of victory last time around. Clinton leads with 45% to 41% for Donald Trump with Gary Johnson at 5% and Jill Stein at 2%. The third party candidates are drawing their support equally from Clinton and Trump, and in a head to head contest Clinton’s lead remains 4 points at 48/44.

The race is shaping up pretty much as you would expect along demographic lines. Clinton leads 51/36 with women, 82/13 with Hispanics, 91/5 with African Americans, and 57/28 with young voters. Trump leads 48/37 with men, 51/32 with whites, and 51/36 with seniors. Clinton has a 39/35 advantage with independents. Trump’s actually getting more crossover support with 10% of Democrats to Clinton’s 7% of Republicans. That’s partially because of some Bernie Sanders fans continuing to hold out from giving their support to Clinton- among Democrats and independents with a favorable opinion of Sanders 79% are voting for Clinton to 7% for Trump, 3% for Stein, and 2% for Johnson with 9% remaining undecided. If Clinton could even win over just half of those folks her support would go up to 49% and give her an 8 point lead….

Trump’s made a lot of comments about voters being ready to be done with President Obama but we find that if voters got to pick between the two 52% would rather have Obama as President to just 43% for Trump. Those numbers show why it’s smart for Clinton to tie herself closely to Obama- if she’s seen as a continuation of the current administration that helps her a good deal in relation to Trump rather than hurting her….


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We’ve seen the Republican nominee ‘Unity’ bounce before…In both cases Democrats won….

Everybody in the media  is ALL excited !

Trump closing on Hillary!….

Trump UP in the RealClear Politics average !


Ah, Wait a minute ?

Didn’t this happen SEVERAL times before?

Don’t get ahead of yourself people….

Trump IS NOT leading Hillary Clinton right now…

Donald Trump takes a unity bounce lead, just like John McCain!

By: Neil Stevens (Diary ) @ Red State

Donald Trump is the last Republican running. That’s a great time for a candidate in the polls, when everyone else is out and the party is supposed to be rallying around you.

So why isn’t he winning more states?

U.S. Senator John McCain and former Governor Mitt Romney speaking with the media at a campaign rally at Dobson High School in Mesa, Arizona. (Gage Skidmore)

The point when you’re the last candidate in the race is supposed to be a turning point for a candidate. In 2008, John McCain hit a low against Barack Obama of 42-48 on March 11. Mike Huckabee had just pulled out on March 4, Once the polls caught up, John McCain led 46-45 by March 25. Of course, Barack Obama continued to gain as he continued to defeat Hillary Clinton, and you know the rest of the story.

Mitt Romney had a similar situation after Newt Gingrich quit, though he never quite got the polling average lead. He did lead some polls, though.

In both of the last two elections, the unity bounce helped Republican made gains. Some polls even showed Mitt Romney leading, and most showed John McCain leading. Both men went on to lose, with McCain losing even bigger than Romney did. How? Well, in McCain’s case, the Democrats had yet to unify. Once they did, he fell behind again.

So now we turn to the case of Donald Trump. His party’s presumptive nominee has taken a few leads in national polling despite being down in swing and target state polling. He’s down in Florida, he’s down in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. The map is brutal for him right now…..



Trump is running against Hilolary Clinton….

Hillary Clinton is running against Trump….

Bernie Sanders is still out there stealing from Clinton, something Trump does NOT have to deal with…

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Polling Update May 6, 2016…West Virginia… Trump/Sanders…Obama Approval 50%…

Good News for the President….

The primary numbers don’t really count much anymore…

Friday, May 6

West Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary


Sanders 47, Clinton 43 Sanders +4

West Virginia Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 57, Cruz 25, Kasich 14 Trump +32

President Obama Job Approval


Approve 51, Disapprove 46 Approve +5

President Obama Job Approval


Approve 51, Disapprove 45 Approve +6

President Obama Job Approval

Rasmussen Reports

Approve 49, Disapprove 50 Disapprove +1

President Obama Job Approval


Approve 49, Disapprove 45 Approve +4

…for more details on the above polls….Real Clear Politics

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Polling Update….May 3rd to May 5th, 2016….Clinton Up by 13 on Trump…

Catch up time for polls….

Thursday, May 5

New Jersey Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 70, Kasich 15, Cruz 11 Trump +55

Wednesday, May 4

New Jersey Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 60, Sanders 32 Clinton +28

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton


Clinton 54, Trump 41 Clinton +13

Tuesday, May 3

West Virginia Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 61, Cruz 22, Kasich 14 Trump +39

West Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary


Sanders 45, Clinton 37 Sanders +8

…for more details on the abpove polls…Real Clear Politics.

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Hillary Clinton starts off Way ahead of Trump…But?

Polling out today and in the coming week will show that Hillary Clinton has a wide lead over Donald Trump in the general election race….

November is six months away….

Already we have Conservatives saying they won’t vote for Trump….

Some even are saying they’ll vote for Hillary instead?…We’ll see on THAT….

Some Bernie Sanders supporters say it’s Bernie or else…..But most KNEW he wasn’t gonna be the Democratic nominee as they cast their votes for the past month…

That this will be a nasty and hard fought general election goes without a doubt….

Donald Trump has shown that he will go personal….

He doesn’t do details …..

He’s about telling people that he is the ‘Alpha’ male….

And he WILL step on ANYONE and EVERYONE’S back to get what he wants….

THAT has worked for him with most Republicans….

Hillary Clinton has assured people that she’s ready this time…

That she is experienced and qualified to assume the Presidency….

THAT has worked for her with the base of the Democratic party….

As things unfold we are going to see a colossal fight play out…..

The future of the Republican Party…..

This countries ability to deal with changes in who/what it is….

This countries ability to envelope ALL of its people in their rights….

And the way the country deals with the openness of the new social media world are ALL on the line come November…..

A general election matchup between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton became all but certain on Tuesday after Mr. Trump’s decisive victory in Indiana.

He would begin that matchup at a significant disadvantage.

Yes, it’s still a long way until Election Day. And Mr. Trump has already upended the conventional wisdom many times. But this is when early horse-race polls start to give a rough sense of the November election, and Mr. Trump trails Mrs. Clinton by around 10 percentage points in early general election surveys, both nationally and in key battleground states.

He even trails in some polls of several states where Mitt Romney won in 2012, like North Carolina, Arizona, Missouri and Utah.

Could Mr. Trump overtake Mrs. Clinton? Sure. Mrs. Clinton is very unpopular herself. Her polling lead is a snapshot in time, before the barrage of attack ads that are sure to come her way. There have been 10-point shifts over the general election season before, even if it’s uncommon. But there isn’t much of a precedent for huge swings in races with candidates as well known as Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton. A majority of Americans may not like her, but they say they’re scared of him. To have a chance, he’ll need to change that….


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Polling Update April 20, 2016…PA, CT, DEL, Cal….Clinton/Trump…..

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump continue to lead in polling for their parties nomination’s….

Wednesday, April 20

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 52, Sanders 39 Clinton +13

Connecticut Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 48, Kasich 28, Cruz 19 Trump +20

Connecticut Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 51, Sanders 42 Clinton +9

Delaware Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 55, Kasich 18, Cruz 15 Trump +37

Delaware Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 45, Sanders 38 Clinton +7

California Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 47, Sanders 41 Clinton +6

…for details on the above polls…Real Clear Politics….

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Black Lives Matter incident has little effect on Clinton campaign…Poll

Bill Clinton’s retort to a Black Lives Matter shout out had the media  questioning the Clinton’s relationship with blacks….

There is NO question….

The support for the Clinton’s remain deep and wide from black folks…..

Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, inched up in favorability ratings after the latter’s heated exchange last week with the African American activist group Black Lives Matter, Morning Consult polling shows.

The favorability movement for both Clintons is incremental enough to indicate the incident had little impact on Hillary Clinton’s electability as president. Asked specifically about Black Lives Matter and the incident with Bill Clinton last week, the voters who had the most unfavorable views of both the movement and of Clinton are people she likely won’t win over anyway — Republican men and those who cite national security as the most important issue facing the country. (People who say national security is most important tend to be Republicans and believe that President Obama is doing a bad job as president.)

Importantly for Clinton’s campaign, black voters are almost twice as likely to select her among the array of remaining presidential candidates as the person who would do most to promote racial equality. As with Obama’s two previous successful bids for president, African American voters will be crucial to a Clinton path to the White House in November….



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Looking at what they could be getting?…American’s like Obama more….

With Donald Trump ‘s aproval droping by the minute…..

And Ted Crzu not much better…..

Plus Hillary Clinton haters ….

President Obama is rising in the polls as comes up on the last months of being in office….

Obama has been quick to take aim at GOP candidates. This past week, he called front-runner Trump’s latest immigration proposal ‘‘half-baked.’’ The president seized the spotlight with a new rule and aggressive critique aimed at corporate tax dodgers, risking riling Wall Street but capitalizing on the populism of the moment.

He has put himself at the front and center of the fight over the Supreme Court, returning on Thursday to the law school where he once taught and portraying the GOP blockade of his nominee as a threat to democracy.

Obama also conducted his first interview as president with ‘‘Fox News Sunday,’’ a favorite show for conservatives.

The White House says Obama always planned to squeeze every last minute out of his two terms, regardless of his popularity. Aides have promised more policy announcements, particularly economic initiatives, as several efforts long in the works come to fruition.

Also, he probably will be a force in the campaign, working to fire up his core coalition of young, African-American and Hispanic voters, and backers in Rust Belt states, where he has continued to show strength….



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Democrat Nomination Race Update 4/3/16….

Wisconsin is the next primary contest….New York and Deleware are two weeks ahead….

The latest poll out for Wisconsin should have Bernie Sanders a bit worried…

Polling over the last week has had Sanders up by about 5% pts….

A poll out today has him up by only 2%pts….

A win by Clinton in Wisconsin and then in New York where she is up by double digits would really take the air out of ANY Sanders talking…

Hillary Clinton IS gonna be the Democratic nominee…

Sanders holds edge in Wisconsin; Clinton leads in New York

Sanders has a 2-point lead ahead of voting in Wisconsin on Tuesday…..

Clinton: ‘Important’ that Democrats nominate a Democrat

“I … have been a proud Democrat all my adult life,” Clinton said in Eau Claire, Wis….

Sanders: Clinton is getting ‘very nervous’

“Poll after poll shows us doing much better against Trump than she is,” he said…..

Clinton ‘not at all worried’ about FBI probe

Clinton said she has not yet been contacted for an interview….

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Sam Wang…A Divided GOP field actually HELPS Trump get to 1,237…

Wang  crunches the numbers and comes up a conclusion that is 180 degrees from what most pundits think….

Cruz winning Ohio and Cruz and Kasich STAYING IN the nomination race will enable Donald Trump to get TO 1,237 delegates…


We can test the effect of a divided field by simulating the outcome of having all the primaries as if they were held today and included all four of the remaining candidates: Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich.

The above graph represents a distribution of all possible outcomes. Where polls are available, Trump leads in eight of the nine states that vote between now and mid-April. I estimate that under these conditions, he should lose between two and four of the winner-take-all races and win a median of 804 newly awarded delegates. Combined with his existing 465 delegates, Trump’s total would be 1,269, more than the 1,237 needed to get a majority on the first ballot at the convention. The total might be smaller because of chance variation, as well as Cruz’s tendency to outperform his polls. So there is a chance Trump would need to pick up a handful of additional delegates, for example from Ben Carson, who has endorsed him. In this way, Trump could easily get the nomination with a majority of delegates, despite having the support of only 39 percent of Republican voters, as measured by national surveys. Indeed, my simulation indicates even if his support dropped across the board by 5 percentage points, he would still have an even-odds chance of getting 1,237 delegates. This victory builds on the 42 percent of delegates that he has obtained so far, based on getting 34 percent of the vote.

Most of the remaining primaries, however, do not happen tomorrow. This gives time for the consequences of the March 15 primaries to unfold, changing the picture substantially…..


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Polls for Feb. 29, 2016….Tex, Mass, Alabama, Oklahoma, Kentucky and Michigan…

Texas Republican Presidential Primary


Cruz 35, Trump 32, Rubio 16, Kasich 9, Carson 4 Cruz +3

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 68, Sanders 26 Clinton +42

Massachusetts Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 51, Rubio 20, Kasich 14, Cruz 10, Carson 1 Trump +31

Massachusetts Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 54, Sanders 43 Clinton +11

Alabama Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 42, Rubio 19, Cruz 16, Carson 11, Kasich 5 Trump +23

Alabama Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 71, Sanders 23 Clinton +48

Oklahoma Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 35, Cruz 23, Rubio 22, Carson 7, Kasich 8 Trump +12

Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 43, Sanders 48 Sanders +5

Georgia Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 39, Rubio 20, Cruz 15, Carson 9, Kasich 8 Trump +19

Georgia Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 70, Sanders 23 Clinton +47

Georgia Republican Presidential Primary

Trafalgar Group (R)

Trump 39, Rubio 24, Cruz 21, Carson 6, Kasich 7 Trump +15

Georgia Republican Presidential Primary

FOX 5 Atlanta

Trump 33, Rubio 23, Cruz 23, Carson 6, Kasich 11 Trump +10

Texas Republican Presidential Primary

FOX 26/Opinion Savvy

Cruz 36, Trump 25, Rubio 19, Kasich 9, Carson 8 Cruz +11

Texas Republican Presidential Primary


Cruz 33, Trump 32, Rubio 17, Kasich 7, Carson 6 Cruz +1

Texas Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 58, Sanders 38 Clinton +20

Massachusetts Republican Presidential Primary

UMass Amherst

Trump 47, Rubio 15, Kasich 11, Cruz 15, Carson 2 Trump +32

Massachusetts Democratic Presidential Primary

UMass Amherst

Clinton 47, Sanders 44 Clinton +3

Michigan Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 33, Rubio 18, Cruz 18, Kasich 10, Carson 9 Trump +15

Michigan Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 56, Sanders 36 Clinton +20

Kentucky Republican Presidential Caucus

Western Kentucky Univ.

Trump 35, Rubio 22, Carson 7, Cruz 15, Kasich 6 Trump +13

..for details on these polls….RealClear Politics….

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Bookies move Trump to 2 to 1 over Rubio for GOP Nomination…

PredictWise, which averages in several polls, oddsmakers and bookies  have moved Trumps chances up  after his win of the Nevada GOP Caucuses last night….

Potential Candidate PredictWise Derived Market Price Derived Polling Percent
Donald Trump 67 % $0.652 37.3 %
Marco Rubio 29 % $0.299 16.3 %
John Kasich 2 % $0.020 10.0 %
Ted Cruz 1 % $0.014 17.9 %
Chris Christie 0 % $0.001 3.1 %
Jeb Bush 0 % $0.018 6.0 %
Rand Paul 0 % $0.001 3.1 %
Mike Huckabee 0 % $0.001 1.4 %
Rick Santorum 0 % $0.001 0.5 %
Ben Carson 0 % $0.002 8.2 %
Carly Fiorina 0 % $0.001 2.1 %
Lindsey Graham 0 % $0.001 0.7 %
George Pataki 0 % $0.001 0.1 %



Clinton is 9 to 1 for the Democratic nomination….

Democrats are  2 to 1 for the Presidential Election Winner….

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