Tag Archives: Polls

Political Roundup for October 21st, 2015…Hillary Ahead in NH?…RRH Elections….


Clinton: Clinton erroneously declared that some prominent Democrats had endorsed her when they hadn’t. This notably included San Antonio Mayor Ivy Taylor, and doesn’t exactly instill confidence in the supposed A+ Clinton Campaign team.

National Polls: We have couple of them today, so here’s a quick summary. CNN has Trump and Carson at 27% and 22% with no one else above 8%, Monmouth has Trump at 28% to Carson’s 18% and Cruz’s 10%, and Emerson (Excel Link) has Trump at 32% to Carson’s 18% and Rubio’s 13.5% with no undecideds.

New Hampshire: PPP has polls of both primary elections here. Clinton is up 41-33 on Sanders for the Democrats, and Trump is up with 28%. Notably, Rubio comes in second place with 12%, with Carson, Kasich, Bush, Fiorina, and Cruz all following closely behind.

PA-General: PPP polled the Keystone state, and found Clinton leading roughly half of the GOP field and trailing the other half. She loses to Carson, Christie, Rubio, Trump, and Fiorina, while beating Kasich, Cruz, Bush, Santorum, and Huckabee. We could be doing worse.

Trump: The Trump Campaign is surprisingly cash-poor. His campaign has little cash-on-hand and has incurred a surprisingly large amount of debt, leading to him having an effectively negative account balance at the start of the 4th quarter. Naturally this could be fixed with a single big donation from Trump himself, but so far he seems happy coasting on all of his free media rather than running a more traditional campaign.

Webb: The Republican-turned Democrat is dropping out of the race. His hundreds of national supporters will be a big help to either Martin O’Malley or Lincoln Chafee in their fight for 3rd place…..


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Hillary wins and has 3% climb in post debate poll….Update*

While Bernie Sanders’ people tries to spin his debate performance as better than Hillary Clinton….Pundits and THIS Dog felt from the jump that Hillary Clinton bested Bernie Sanders in the first Democratic 2016 Primary debate….

To be fair…..

Hillary Clinton was on the stage to show her ability to lead and to put the email and Benghazi stories behind her….

Bernie Sanders was on stage to get exposure and explain HIS dream for America…Not Policy….

The debate is certain to help BOTH Clinton and Sanders …..

But Clinton remains well ahead of Sanders in polling across the board and in every state except New Hampshire.  Hillary is even or only slightly behind Bernie in Iowa…

A majority believe Hillary Clinton won her party’s first debate on Tuesday, but the Democratic frontrunner received just a small bump in a poll from the perceived victory.

Fifty-six percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents saw Clinton as the winner, compared to 33 percent who thought Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) won, according to the NBC News/Survey Monkey survey released on Friday.

Only 3 percent, it added, believe the former secretary of State gave the worst showing during Tuesday night’s event.

Overall, the poll found Clinton with 45 percent support compared to 31 percent support for Sanders. That’s a three-percentage-point climb for Clinton, and a two-percent uptick for her main rival.

NBC News/Survey Monkey found that Sanders is making in-roads with young voters, nabbing 54 percent of those below age 30. Clinton, in contrast, receives 24 percent among that same voting bloc…..



The poll has a very large sample of 4,898 persons and very low MOE of 2%….


A 55 percent majority of registered Democratic voters who watched the debate said Clinton won. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who saw a surge in online interest and fundraising, was a distant second, with only 22 percent saying he was the best of the night.

Clinton also saw an uptick in the proportion of Democrats who say they want her to be the party’s presidential nominee. Before the debate, 44 percent of registered Democrats said they wanted Clinton to be the nominee. After the debate, the figure had risen to 52 percent.

That movement, however, is thanks to a lower percentage of undecided voters….


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Hillary Clinton IS the Democratic leader for 2016…Poll

In todays new National poll for Democrats who are or could be running for President by Public Policy Polling (PPP)?

Hillary Clinton polls as the clear leader for the 2016 Democratic Presidential nominee….

Sanders onl yties with Clinton with younger voters….

Her strength is in seniors, women and black voters…..

There is NO Barcak Obama type out there for her to worry about this time….

There has been seemingly endless discussion over the last few months about potential big name Democratic primary challengers entering the race to take out Hillary Clinton. So on our newest national poll we tested Clinton not just against Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, but also against Al Gore and Elizabeth Warren and John Kerry and to make sure we were covering all our bases even Michael Dukakis.

Clinton leads the Democratic race with 42% to 24% for Sanders, 20% for Biden, 2% for Jim Webb, and 1% each for Lincoln Chafee and Martin O’Malley. Among Biden voters, 44% say Clinton would be their second choice to only 21% who say Sanders would be. If Biden doesn’t get in and you reallocate his backers to their second choice, Clinton leads Sanders 51 to 28….


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Political Roundup for September 25, 2015…Polls…RRH Elections


National 1: From Quinnipiac, Biden and Carson run best in general election matchups. In the GOP primary, Trump (25%) leads Carson (17%), Fiorina (12%), Jeb (10%), Rubio (9%), and Cruz (7%), with everyone else 2% or lower. Among the Democrats, Hillary leads 43%-25%-18% over Sanders and Biden and rises to 53% against Sanders alone.

National 2: From Iowa-based Selzer, Trump (21%) leads Carson (16%), Jeb (13%), Fiorina (11%), Rubio (8%), and Cruz (5%). Christie, Kasich, Huckabee, and Rand round out the pack over 1%. Interestingly, Rand actually has higher unfavorable ratings than Trump in this poll, at 42% versus 40%.

Debate: 538 breaks down the winners (Fiorina and Rubio) and losers (Walker and Trump) of the 2nd GOP primary debate based on polling.

Super PACs: Super PACs are beginning to reserve airtime in various early states. They include:

  • Bush: $37 million through February, including $22 million in New Hampshire
  • Rubio: $15 million
  • Christie: $11.4 million
  • Jindal: $4 million
  • Kasich: $750k in New Hampshire for the next three weeks

While Super PACs may face a jacked up price for TV spots that is massively higher than campaigns, the vast amount of dollars flowing through those organs dwarfs the costs.

Fiorina: Carly Fiorina snags her second congressional endorsement from retiring Rep. Candice Miller (MI-10). Fiorina already picked up the support of Rep. Lynn Jenkins (KS-2).

Rubio: Rep. John Moolenaar (MI-4) endorsed Marco Rubio yesterday.

Jeb: David Weigel tears apart the electability argument for Jeb Bush, comparing his numbers to George W. Of course, George faced a different party and electorate than Jeb, so the comparison doesn’t go very far.

NH-Pres: The latest UNH poll has Trump on top with 26%, followed by Fiorina (16%), Rubio (9%), Carson (8%), and Kasich and Jeb at 7%. Rounding out the field are Cruz and Christie at 5% and Rand at 3%. Among Democrats, Hillary falls to Sanders, trailing the Vermont socialist 30%-46% with Biden at 14%, maintaining a (diminished) lead even without the Vice President in the race.

FL-Pres: Another Florida presidential poll finds Trump in the driver’s seat. This one, from Jacksonville University’s Public Policy Institute, pegs the Don at 24%, Jeb at 17%, Fiorina (!) at 16% and Carson and Rubio at 15% each.

NC-Pres: A poll from Elon University finds Trump and Carson leading North Carolina with 22% and 21% respectively. Rounding out the pack is Fiorina (10%), Rubio (7%), Jeb (7%), Cruz (6%), and Huckabee (4%).

MN-Pres: Before Walker dropped out, Minnesota was a stronghold for him. But after his exit, the field is unsettled in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Fiorina has put together an impressive leadership team in the state, including Senate Minority Leader David Hann, Elephant Club (party fundraiser) Co-Chair Molly Corrigan Cronin, and 2014 US Senate nominee Mike McFadden, who is thought to be considering a 2018 gubernatorial bid. Four other state legislators also endorsed her bid. Although the article doesn’t mention it, I’ve heard she (as well as Trump) is shopping for ground staff…..


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Trump…Carson…Fironia..Bush…9/24/15 Poll….

Carson and Fiorina gaining at Donald trumps exspense….

Quinnipiac University Republican /Republican Leaners….Poll.….

                     Sept    Aug     Diff
Trump                25%     28%     -3
Carson               17      12      +5
Fiorina              12       5      +7
Bush                 10       7      +3
Rubio                 9       7      +2
Cruz                  7       7      --
Huckabee              2       3      -1
Christie              2       4      -2
Kasich                2       5      -3
Paul                  1       2      -1
Pataki                1       -      +1
Santorum              -       1      -1
Graham                -       -      --
Jindal                -       -      --
Gilmore               -       -      --
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With Scott Walker out…Does Marco Rubio shine brighter?

Another Up in the Up and Down Marco Rubio 2016 Presidential Campaign?

Scott Walker’s exit from the White House race is disrupting the GOP contest, and many observers believe Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) will be the biggest beneficiary.

Rubio and Walker were seen at the outset of the race as the candidates with the best shot at winning over the GOP’s conservative grassroots and then running strong in the general election.

But with the Wisconsin governor now out of the mix, suddenly a new group of supporters — and big-money donors — are up for grabs.

Rubio had already been showing signs of new strength in the wake of the second GOP debate last week, with a poll from CNN/ORC putting him at 11 percent support nationally — good enough for fourth place and a big improvement over the 3 percent he had registered in the same poll just two weeks before.

“Rubio is not putting himself front and center but he is ensuring that at each Republican debate he is well noticed as competent and well-studied,” said GOP consultant Ron Bonjean. “He is showing consistency with those performances.”


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Political Roundup for September 16, 2015…Ben Carson Gains…RRH Elections

Poll: A new CBS/NYT poll shows Ben Carson surging to within 4 points of Trump in the Republican primary. Trump leads with 27%, but Carson is close behind at 23%. All other candidates are in single digits.

Trump/CfG: The Club for Growth has launched a $1 million ad campaign in Iowa criticizing Donald Trump for his support for liberal policies and branding him as just another politician. Although the ads make good points, the chances of them really doing damage to Trump’s support seem remote as his conservative supporters simply do not seem to care about his many departures from conservative orthodoxy.

Bush: Here’s a good editorial on what is wrong with the Jeb Bush campaign. His biggest problem is he is running a politician’s campaign in a non-politician environment. His campaign is based on his accomplishments as governor when a majority of Republicans in polls say they want an outsider who will shake things up rather than somebody who has shown the ability to get things done as a politician….


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The line-up for next weeks CNN GOP Presidential debate….One additional added…

Carly Fiorina makes the cut for the Main show, which will feature the same guys from the FOX debate ….

The field of candidates on stage for the main event at CNN’s debate next week will be the same 10 who debated last month — with one notable addition: Carly Fiorina.

CNN officially unveiled the lineup on Thursday evening, six days before the debate at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, Calif. The debate will consist of two separate panels: One, composed of five lower-ranking candidates, will begin at 6 p.m. Eastern/3 p.m. Pacific, while the top 11 candidates are scheduled to take the stage at 8 p.m. Eastern/5 p.m. Pacific.

Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO, was admitted to the primetime panel only after a last-minute change to the controversial criteria CNN used to separate the field into two groups.

The 11 candidates who will appear on the main stage are, in order of their finish in CNN’s polling average: Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, John Kasich, Chris Christie and Fiorina.

For the preliminary debate, the participants are Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, George Pataki and Lindsey Graham. Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore did not qualify, only registering at 1 percent in one of the 14 polls that make up the average.


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Sanders jumps ahead of Hillary in second New Hampshire Poll

Sanders is doing fine in his neighboring state…He’s from Vermont….

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has jumped to a 9-point lead in New Hampshire over Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, according to a new poll.

Sanders is the favorite of 41 percent of Democratic voters in the NBC News/Marist poll out Sunday morning, compared to 32 percent for Clinton. Vice President Biden has 16 percent support in the Granite State.

Clinton topped Sanders in New Hampshire, 42 percent to 32 percent, in a similar poll in July.

No other Democratic candidate received more than 1 percent support in the latest sampling….


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Daily Kos Morning Digest 9/2/15… Two polls show presumptive gubernatorial frontrunner David Vitter in real danger

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Jeff Singer

Louisiana Republican Sen. David Vitter

attribution: David Vitter Facebook
Louisiana GOP Sen. David Vitter

Leading Off: LA-Gov: A few weeks ago, Market Research Insight raised plenty of eyebrows when they unveiled a survey showing presumptive gubernatorial frontrunner Sen. David Vitter tied for second place with fellow Republican and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle in the Oct. 24 jungle primary. The top two vote-getters will advance to a November runoff, and it would be utterly shocking if the well-known and well-funded Vitter missed out. And now, the group is doubling down on their surprising findings in a new survey on behalf of GOP lieutenant governor candidate Billy Nungesser.

This poll, which LaPolitic’s Jeremy Alford says in his Sept. 1 edition of his Tuesday Tracker was conducted Aug. 24-26, initially found a close three-way fight for the top two spots between Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards, Vitter, and Angelle. However, as they often do, MRI redistributes African Americans voters to reflect their usual Democratic preference. The final number puts Edwards in first with 35 percent, and finds Vitter only leading Angelle 22-19 for the second spot; GOP Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, who hasn’t run any ads yet and whose allies have only just gone on the air, lags in fourth with 11. MRI’s July poll, conducted for a different client, also found Edwards safely in first once African Americans were redistributed, and had Vitter and Angelle tied 21 to 21.

Surprisingly, another firm reportedly shows similar results. Head below for more.


CO-Sen: National Republicans are making it no secret that they want Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler to challenge Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, but Team Red isn’t quite out of options if he declines. Rep. Scott Tipton sounded pretty meh about a Senate run in May, but his office tells Politico’s Manu Raju that the congressman “is not going to close the door on any opportunity.” Tipton would need to give up his secure House seat so he may need some persuading, but he’d at least give the GOP a viable candidate.

Raju also gives us a new name, businessman Doug Robinson. Robinson is a nephew of Mitt Romney and he chaired his unsuccessful 2012 presidential campaign in the Centennial State, so he would have some connections. Robinson sounds interested, saying that he’s been approached and is “thinking whether this would be right for Colorado and right for my family.” Robinson also says he’s willing to pump some of his own money into his campaign but he’s aware he’d need to raise a “lot” of cash from other sources. It’s unclear how Brauchler’s decision will impact Robinson’s.

FL-Sen: GOP Rep. David Jolly has earned his third endorsement from a fellow member of Florida’s congressional delegation as four-term Rep. Gus Bilirakis just offered his support. Bilirakis represents the state’s 12th District, which is just north of Jolly’s 13th. Previously, Jolly received backing from Reps. Richard Nugent and Dennis Ross…..


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Donald Trump 8/10/15 PM Update….Polls…FOX…Hillary…

Trump continues to climb in the polls…..He and Roger Ailes have a terse meeting of the minds and Hillary Clinton gets her digs in at Trump……

After almost a week?

Trump is STILL dealing with the FOX debate fallout….

But the noise is STILL eating up the air in the political world….


A new Morning Consult poll finds Donald Trump’s lead over the Republican field grew in the several days after his performance at the first GOP presidential debate.

Trump leads with 32% — up 7 percentage points over last week’s poll — followed by Jeb Bush at 11%, Ben Carson at 9%, Scott Walker at 6% and Marco Rubio at 6%.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Trump leading with 24%, followed by Jeb Bush at 12%, No other candidate earned more than 8%….


FOX’s Riger Ailes and Trump make-up?

Fox News Channel president Roger Ailes says all is well between himself and Donald Trump after the real estate mogul spent days lambasting the network and anchor Megyn Kelly for the questions he received at the first Republican debate.

Ailes said in a memo obtained by CNN that he had a “blunt but cordial” conversation with Trump on Monday.

“Donald Trump and I spoke today,” Ailes said in the statement. “We discussed our concerns, and I again expressed my confidence in Megyn Kelly. She is a brilliant journalist and I support her 100 percent.”

“I assured him that we will continue to cover this campaign with fairness & balance,” Ailes continued. “We had a blunt but cordial conversation and the air has been cleared.”

The memo is in line with a tweet Trump sent out earlier in the day saying he and Ailes had smoothed things over…..


Hillary takes a swing at Trump and the Other GOPer’s

Hillary Clinton thinks that Donald Trump’s comments about Fox host Megyn Kelly were “outrageous” but so are Republican policies about women.

“I’m just going to leave my comments where they are,” Clinton said to reporters after a town hall in Exeter, New Hampshire, on Monday. “I thought what he said was offensive, and I certainly think that it determines the kind of reaction that it’s getting from so many others.

“But I think if we focus on that, we’re making a mistake,” she said. “What a lot of the men on that stage in that debate said was offensive.”

Clinton then took aim at Sen. Marco Rubio. During the Fox News GOP debate Thursday, the Florida senator said he never said he supported a rape and incest exception to abortion bans….


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Political Roundup for August 10th, 2015…Trump….RRH Elections

Debates: A Gravis (Salt to taste) poll has Ben Carson as the winner of the thursday Debate, and Rand Paul as the loser, with Donald Trump scoring second in both categories. Only 14% said they had a more positive opinion of Rand Paul after the debate while 67% said they had a more negative one, giving him by far the most negative assessment of the night. Trump was at 36%/45%, Christie and Bush were narrowly positive and everyone else had a more lopsidedly positive spread.

Trump: A YouGov poll taken just before the debate on Thursday highlights one of the reasons Trump has had such unusual staying power—61% of Self-ID Republicans view him favorably, second only to Marco Rubio’s 62%. 34% of Republicans view him unfavorably, which is more than most other Republicans but still lower than Bush, Graham, or Christie’s unfavorable rankings.

Trump-2: Jazz Shaw of Hot Air makes a good argument here—At what point do we stop asking why Trump is doing so well and start asking why the rest of the field is doing so poorly against him.

Trump-3: Buzzfeed (yuck) is reporting that Conservative website Breitbart.com might have been paid off by Trump in order to secure favorably political coverage. The evidence here is worse than paper-thin, as it’s based on anonymous reports by employees with nothing more than suspicion in a Buzzfeed article written by an author promoting his book, so a mountain of salt for this one.

Third-Party: A Republican is openly considering running as a third-party candidate for President this year. No I’m not talking about Trump, I’m talking about former Indiana Representative John Hostettler, who is rumored to be considering running on the Constitution Party ticket in 2016. Hostettler endorsed the Constitution Party’s 2008 nominee for president, so there could be truth to this rumor….


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NYC Progressive Mayor De Blasio’s Poll numbers drop….

He’s still popular….

But he’s taking hits on crime and other issues….

Mayor Bill de Blasio has stumbled to the worst net approval rating of his tenure, according to a poll released on Wednesday, placing his popularity with New York City voters well behind that of Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo — his counterpart in a protracted municipal feud.

Forty-four percent of voters approve of the mayor’s performance, according to the survey by Quinnipiac University. The same share of voters disapproves.

With the mayor’s re-election bid more than two years away, 47 percent of voters say Mr. de Blasio, a Democrat, does not deserve to stay in office; 41 percent say he does. (A majority of Democrats, though, support his re-election, 53 percent to 35 percent.)

A stark racial divide in Mr. de Blasio’s numbers, long a hallmark of his polling, remains. Sixty-four percent of black voters approve of his work, according to the poll. A majority of white voters, 59 percent, disapprove.

Mr. de Blasio has encountered a series of difficulties in recent months, including the tussle with Mr. Cuomo, also a Democrat, over a disappointing legislative session in Albany, and distressing headlines about a rising murder rate — even as city officials have noted that overall crime continues to fall….


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Sabato on the ‘Angry’ American voter….

Voters seen to always be tired of President’s and their parties (and opposite party of theirs) as their terms wind down….

A function of promises, expectations and the reality of politics….

As Republicans take the stage in Cleveland for their first presidential primary debate tonight — with Donald Trump in the middle of it — one thing is already abundantly clear: A lot of voters are angry. Very angry. In fact, a lot of voters have been angry for some time. The phenomenon that we call “negative partisanship,” antipathy on the part of Democratic and Republican voters toward the opposing party and its leaders, has been on the rise since the 1980s, and today it is arguably the most salient feature of the political scene in the United States. Now voter ire appears to be shaping both parties’ 2016 presidential nomination races. The rise of Trump and Bernie Sanders in the Republican and Democratic nomination contests, respectively, is symptomatic of this increased anger in the American electorate.

Although rising voter anger is clearly affecting both parties, during the Obama years it has been more evident among Republican partisans. Table 1, which utilizes data from the 2012 American National Election Study (ANES), shows the comparison between the parties. In the ANES survey, voters were asked to indicate how often they felt angry at the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. More than two out of five Republican voters, 43%, reported feeling angry at Barack Obama either “always” or “most of the time.” By contrast, only 33% of Democratic respondents indicated a similar level of anger toward Mitt Romney.

The difference in anger levels between supporters of the two parties in 2012 does not appear to reflect a fundamental difference between Republicans and Democrats. Rather, an incumbent president of either party is simply more likely to inspire strong emotional reactions on the part of voters than a less well-known challenger. Thus, in 2004, when the ANES asked respondents to rate their anger level at President George W. Bush and his Democratic challenger, John Kerry, 60% of Democratic voters indicated that they were angry at Bush either “very often” or “fairly often,” while only 30% of Republican voters were that angry at Kerry….


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Guess on the FOX debate line up…..

A slew of polls have been released in the last 24 hours and First Read crunches the latest numbers to see which candidates make the top 10 for the first GOP debate on Thursday night:

Trump: 23.2%
Bush: 12.8%
Walker: 10.6%
Carson: 6.6%
Huckabee: 6.6%
Cruz: 6.2%
Rubio: 5.2%
Paul: 4.8%
Christie: 3.4%
Kasich: 2.8%
Not making the cut:

Perry: 2.0%
Santorum: 1.4%
Jindal: 1.2%
Fiorina: 1.0%
Graham: 0.4%
Pataki: 0.2%
Gilmore: 0.2%


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Open Thread for August 4, 2015…Trump…’Me…Me…Me’….

Last night the GOP Sweepstake contestentants attended a C-SPAN forum…..

Donald Trump wasn’t there….

The people at the forum never mentioned Trump….They DID go after Hillary Clinton….

In addition, The people on the stage answered questions about policy….

Donald Trump tends to not speak a sentence without saying ‘Me…Me…Me’…….

Now this morning the political media types are talking about the get together for a few minutes….

But as Johnathan Alter mentioned …..Trump is the master of insults…..

Style…NOT Substance…..

Here at the PDog I’ve been harping on Trump and his substance….

People here are think I’m missing the boat on the guy….

I don’t…..

Oh, yea….

Quietly in the national GOP primary polling Jeb Bush has moved back into second….

And some pundits are talking up Kasich….(Bush without the baggage?….Alter)

On ward to the GOP Debate!

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