Tag Archives: Polls

Donald Trump came in Second…He didn’t Win…

No, he didn’t win the Iowa caucuses….

‘The Donald’ actually left the state last night with the same amount of delegates for the GOP nomination as Marco Rubio….

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Ted Cruz….

The guy who played the game the way you do in Iowa with a ground game, not just free media ….Won….

Cruz won by 3.4% points and only collected one more delegate …..

But he WON….

Trump was contrite in his concession speech, which may have surprised some , but was just a confirmation that all his noise is just that…. Noise….

Trump knows losing….

He’s been thru it in business and other things, just like all of us….

He’s on to New Hampshire now….

We’ll see how he adjusts to the fact that he is no longer the ‘King’…..

We’ll see how his symbolic relationship with the media fairs with voters actually voting….

We’ll see how a man with the highest negatives in race can overcome them….

Or….

Maybe won’t…

But it’s now in the voters hands….Not the media…..

And certainly not the pollsters, who oversold Donald Trump , the Entertainer….

After dominating the Republican race and predicting a win in Monday’s caucuses, Trump looks to New Hampshire with his veneer of invincibility shattered and fresh proof that winning in the polls does not prevent losing when it matters.

Even as his team expressed confidence about next week’s primary, Republican operatives and Trump allies saw what his critics had long predicted — a campaign that was not equipped to capitalize on its candidate’s popularity and momentum. Now they expect polls to tighten in New Hampshire and for the loss to take a psychological toll on supporters of a contender who has sold himself as the ultimate winner.

“Tonight showed that Trump is mortal and his strategy of hyping himself has the potential to backfire,” said Republican operative Ryan Williams, a former Mitt Romney aide, speaking from New Hampshire.

More….

image…AP

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Last Poll’s before Iowa Presidential Caucus….

It’s Trump and Clinton except a Q pool which has Sanders ahead….

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus

Quinnipiac

Trump 31, Cruz 24, Rubio 17, Carson 8, Paul 4, Bush 4, Huckabee 3, Kasich 2, Fiorina 2, Christie 1, Santorum 1 Trump +7

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus

Quinnipiac

Clinton 46, Sanders 49, O’Malley 3 Sanders +3

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus

Emerson

Trump 27, Cruz 26, Rubio 22, Carson 3, Paul 3, Bush 4, Huckabee 5, Kasich 4, Fiorina 2, Christie 3, Santorum 1 Trump +1

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus

Emerson

Clinton 51, Sanders 43, O’Malley 4 Clinton +8

FiveThirtyEight Forecast Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus

Trump 46, Cruz 38%

FiveThirtyEight Forecast Iowa Democratic Presidential  Caucus

Clinton 66, Sanders 34

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Hillary leads in Iowa with Voter’s Registered 6 days out…

 

While the politiocal media is pushing a close ( Horse) race in the Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus next Tuesday…It appears that things probably aren’t so close…..

Hillary Clinton is AHEAD with registered voters in Iowa….They are the MOST Likely to show up for the caucuses…

Sanders leads with random calls polling….The least likely to show up….

And THAT’s why Nate Silver has Hillary Clinton with a predicted 80% forecasted WIN in Iowa…. 

Iowa voter file v. RDD table, updated with today’s polls

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FiveThirtyEight gives Hillary Clinton a 82% Chance to WIN Iowa…

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 82% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

Our forecasts don’t produce a single expected vote share for each candidate, but rather generate a range of possible outcomes, shown below. The range will be wider or narrower under certain circumstances: For instance, it narrows as the election gets closer. Our estimate of each candidate’s chance of winning the state is based on these ranges….

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Ted Cruz thinks he can pull Blue states against Hillary Clinton…

Say WHAT?

Ted Cruz believes he can win some blue states in a general election, specifically Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire — all states the Republican nominee lost to Barack Obama in the 2008 and 2012 elections.

Cruz said Mitt Romney and John McCain, the past two Republican nominees for president, lost those states because millions of conservatives didn’t vote.

“We haven’t been bringing out the Reagan Democrats. I believe our campaign will do that,” Cruz said in an interview with U.S. News & World Report published Thursday. “And I’ll point out, what we do know doesn’t work is following the Bob Dole-John McCain-Mitt Romney plan — that, we know, produces double-digit losses. So, the Washington conventional wisdom is that we need to keep moving further and further left and sounding more and more like the Democrats. And every time we do that we lose by bigger and bigger margins.”

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Is Rubio gonna do a Rudy Giuliani?

In 2008 one Rudy Giuliani , a very popular New York Republican Mayor decided to run for President….

He rose to the top of the Republican field early on….But the former mayor ran into heavy headwinds with a problem with police commissioner and an extra martial affair…..

Things went down hill after that….

Giuliani then decided that he would NOT campaign hard in the early GOP primary states but would focus on Florida …..

That did NOT work.

Ted Cruz is now rising in the early GOP states in the 2016 race for the Republican nomination…Right on Donald Trumps heels…..

While Senator GOP Marco Rubio of Florida actually polls BETTER gainst Hillary Clinton that ANY of the 13 people in the GOP running…..

Rubio is NOT regarded as a TRUE hardcore Conservative because of his position on immigration….

He believes that long term undocumented immigrants  SHOULD be able to work for a Green card….Ted Cruz and Donald Trump do NOT….

Trump and Cruz now lead the polling nationally and and in the states…It appaears that the Rubio camapaign maybe going ‘light’ in their Iowa and New Hampshire ground games……

 

Could THAT result is the same outcome Rudy Guilani had?

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Trump still leads in New Hampshire as Chrsitie rises to Second…Poll

There’s a new poll out from The 90.9 WBUR  in New Hampshire….

That Trump leads is not news….

He’s at 27% in the poll , not the 30%+ in some other posts ……

The story in this poll is CHRIS CHRISTIE….

The Jersey Governor has been quietly practicing retail politics the old fashion way that people in the state expect….And has moved past Cruz and Rubio….

As we get close to primary day?

Trump REMAINS at around 25%…..

And the numbers for the others COMBINED is around 75%…..

If the number of guys drop down?

The party would get what it wants…..

No Trump…..

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary

WBUR/MassINC

Trump 27, Rubio 11, Christie 12, Cruz 10, Kasich 7, Bush 8, Carson 6, Fiorina 3, Paul 2, Huckabee 1, Graham 0, Santorum 0, Pataki 0 Trump +15

…from RealClear Politics….

Note….

The poll is a small one…402 likely GOP voters in NH with a 4.9 MOE……

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Trump’s ban on letting Muslim’s into America Opposed by a Majority of Americans…Poll

No surprise on this basic of 57% Americans AGAINST any ban…

( 59% of Americans, according to the poll have a favorable view of Muslims in general)

Nor is there any surprise that 42% of Republicans SUPPORT the ban while 36% OPPOSE it…..

Not ALL Republicans have bought into the Donald Trump fear muggering….But too many have never the less…..

A majority of U.S. adults oppose Donald Trump’s plan to ban all Muslims from entering the country — but Republican primary voters are split evenly, a new poll shows.

Trump’s proposal is opposed by 57% of American adults and supported by 25%, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey released Thursday shows.

But Trump finds more support for his proposal among Republicans who are likely to vote in the 2016 presidential primary. Those voters are divided almost evenly: 38% support Trump’s proposal, while 39% oppose it.

And among adults who identify as Republicans — even if they might not vote in the primary — 42% support Trump’s plan, while 36% oppose it.

It’s a stark contrast with the 75% of Democrats and 55% of independents who oppose Trump’s call to ban Muslims from entering the United States….

More….

Note….

The survey is of 495 people with a MOE of 4.4% points….

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Will polled poeople actually show up and vote for Trump?

Politicalwire is out with a piece that is piling on the notion that Donald Trump’s poll numbers aren’t gonna turn into the same amount of actual ballots votes in primaries and caucuses….

Hmmmmm?

A new Monkey Cage poll in Iowa finds that non-voters may be driving Donald Trump’s popularity.

“To build a sample, we began with the list of registered voters in Iowa and stratified our sample by factors like age and sex. Other pollsters have done something similar. However, what we did — but other have not — is stratify the sample based on another factor: Whether or not people had voted in at least one primary election since 2006.”

The results: Ben Carson led with 27%, followed by Marco Rubio at 17% and Donald Trump at 15%…..

Source….

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New Q-Poll…Trump crusin..Carson drops…Rubio in 2nd place…

The Cable news channel’s lead story this morning was  the just released Quinnipiac University national poll….

Donald Trump hovers around 25% after having Ben Carson catch him for a brief moment, and now drops as more people actually find out what the guy is NOT talking about….

Marco Rubio is in second place in this poll, replacing Carson….

Rubio’s favorables are the highest of the group…..

Trump’s unfavorables are highest of the group except for Bush, Christie and Paul…..

I have pointed out here before that Rubio seems to be person I think to watch in the ‘long’ game race for the nomination….

Not Cruz, and certainly not Donald Trump…..

BTW?

Hillary Clinton BEATS ALL the GOPer’s in this poll….But ,leads  Marco Rubio by the least…..

The Democratic race is essential over….

 

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Quinnipiac

Trump 27, Carson 16, Rubio 17, Cruz 16, Bush 5, Fiorina 3, Huckabee 1, Christie 2, Kasich 2, Paul 2, Graham 0, Pataki 0, Santorum 0 Trump +10

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Quinnipiac

Clinton 60, Sanders 30, O’Malley 2 Clinton +30

Source….RealClear Politics

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Political Roundup for October 21st, 2015…Hillary Ahead in NH?…RRH Elections….

President:

Clinton: Clinton erroneously declared that some prominent Democrats had endorsed her when they hadn’t. This notably included San Antonio Mayor Ivy Taylor, and doesn’t exactly instill confidence in the supposed A+ Clinton Campaign team.

National Polls: We have couple of them today, so here’s a quick summary. CNN has Trump and Carson at 27% and 22% with no one else above 8%, Monmouth has Trump at 28% to Carson’s 18% and Cruz’s 10%, and Emerson (Excel Link) has Trump at 32% to Carson’s 18% and Rubio’s 13.5% with no undecideds.

New Hampshire: PPP has polls of both primary elections here. Clinton is up 41-33 on Sanders for the Democrats, and Trump is up with 28%. Notably, Rubio comes in second place with 12%, with Carson, Kasich, Bush, Fiorina, and Cruz all following closely behind.

PA-General: PPP polled the Keystone state, and found Clinton leading roughly half of the GOP field and trailing the other half. She loses to Carson, Christie, Rubio, Trump, and Fiorina, while beating Kasich, Cruz, Bush, Santorum, and Huckabee. We could be doing worse.

Trump: The Trump Campaign is surprisingly cash-poor. His campaign has little cash-on-hand and has incurred a surprisingly large amount of debt, leading to him having an effectively negative account balance at the start of the 4th quarter. Naturally this could be fixed with a single big donation from Trump himself, but so far he seems happy coasting on all of his free media rather than running a more traditional campaign.

Webb: The Republican-turned Democrat is dropping out of the race. His hundreds of national supporters will be a big help to either Martin O’Malley or Lincoln Chafee in their fight for 3rd place…..

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Hillary wins and has 3% climb in post debate poll….Update*

While Bernie Sanders’ people tries to spin his debate performance as better than Hillary Clinton….Pundits and THIS Dog felt from the jump that Hillary Clinton bested Bernie Sanders in the first Democratic 2016 Primary debate….

To be fair…..

Hillary Clinton was on the stage to show her ability to lead and to put the email and Benghazi stories behind her….

Bernie Sanders was on stage to get exposure and explain HIS dream for America…Not Policy….

The debate is certain to help BOTH Clinton and Sanders …..

But Clinton remains well ahead of Sanders in polling across the board and in every state except New Hampshire.  Hillary is even or only slightly behind Bernie in Iowa…

A majority believe Hillary Clinton won her party’s first debate on Tuesday, but the Democratic frontrunner received just a small bump in a poll from the perceived victory.

Fifty-six percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents saw Clinton as the winner, compared to 33 percent who thought Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) won, according to the NBC News/Survey Monkey survey released on Friday.

Only 3 percent, it added, believe the former secretary of State gave the worst showing during Tuesday night’s event.

Overall, the poll found Clinton with 45 percent support compared to 31 percent support for Sanders. That’s a three-percentage-point climb for Clinton, and a two-percent uptick for her main rival.

NBC News/Survey Monkey found that Sanders is making in-roads with young voters, nabbing 54 percent of those below age 30. Clinton, in contrast, receives 24 percent among that same voting bloc…..

More…..

Note….

The poll has a very large sample of 4,898 persons and very low MOE of 2%….

*Update….

A 55 percent majority of registered Democratic voters who watched the debate said Clinton won. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who saw a surge in online interest and fundraising, was a distant second, with only 22 percent saying he was the best of the night.

Clinton also saw an uptick in the proportion of Democrats who say they want her to be the party’s presidential nominee. Before the debate, 44 percent of registered Democrats said they wanted Clinton to be the nominee. After the debate, the figure had risen to 52 percent.

That movement, however, is thanks to a lower percentage of undecided voters….

More…

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Hillary Clinton IS the Democratic leader for 2016…Poll

In todays new National poll for Democrats who are or could be running for President by Public Policy Polling (PPP)?

Hillary Clinton polls as the clear leader for the 2016 Democratic Presidential nominee….

Sanders onl yties with Clinton with younger voters….

Her strength is in seniors, women and black voters…..

There is NO Barcak Obama type out there for her to worry about this time….

There has been seemingly endless discussion over the last few months about potential big name Democratic primary challengers entering the race to take out Hillary Clinton. So on our newest national poll we tested Clinton not just against Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, but also against Al Gore and Elizabeth Warren and John Kerry and to make sure we were covering all our bases even Michael Dukakis.

Clinton leads the Democratic race with 42% to 24% for Sanders, 20% for Biden, 2% for Jim Webb, and 1% each for Lincoln Chafee and Martin O’Malley. Among Biden voters, 44% say Clinton would be their second choice to only 21% who say Sanders would be. If Biden doesn’t get in and you reallocate his backers to their second choice, Clinton leads Sanders 51 to 28….

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Political Roundup for September 25, 2015…Polls…RRH Elections

President

National 1: From Quinnipiac, Biden and Carson run best in general election matchups. In the GOP primary, Trump (25%) leads Carson (17%), Fiorina (12%), Jeb (10%), Rubio (9%), and Cruz (7%), with everyone else 2% or lower. Among the Democrats, Hillary leads 43%-25%-18% over Sanders and Biden and rises to 53% against Sanders alone.

National 2: From Iowa-based Selzer, Trump (21%) leads Carson (16%), Jeb (13%), Fiorina (11%), Rubio (8%), and Cruz (5%). Christie, Kasich, Huckabee, and Rand round out the pack over 1%. Interestingly, Rand actually has higher unfavorable ratings than Trump in this poll, at 42% versus 40%.

Debate: 538 breaks down the winners (Fiorina and Rubio) and losers (Walker and Trump) of the 2nd GOP primary debate based on polling.

Super PACs: Super PACs are beginning to reserve airtime in various early states. They include:

  • Bush: $37 million through February, including $22 million in New Hampshire
  • Rubio: $15 million
  • Christie: $11.4 million
  • Jindal: $4 million
  • Kasich: $750k in New Hampshire for the next three weeks

While Super PACs may face a jacked up price for TV spots that is massively higher than campaigns, the vast amount of dollars flowing through those organs dwarfs the costs.

Fiorina: Carly Fiorina snags her second congressional endorsement from retiring Rep. Candice Miller (MI-10). Fiorina already picked up the support of Rep. Lynn Jenkins (KS-2).

Rubio: Rep. John Moolenaar (MI-4) endorsed Marco Rubio yesterday.

Jeb: David Weigel tears apart the electability argument for Jeb Bush, comparing his numbers to George W. Of course, George faced a different party and electorate than Jeb, so the comparison doesn’t go very far.

NH-Pres: The latest UNH poll has Trump on top with 26%, followed by Fiorina (16%), Rubio (9%), Carson (8%), and Kasich and Jeb at 7%. Rounding out the field are Cruz and Christie at 5% and Rand at 3%. Among Democrats, Hillary falls to Sanders, trailing the Vermont socialist 30%-46% with Biden at 14%, maintaining a (diminished) lead even without the Vice President in the race.

FL-Pres: Another Florida presidential poll finds Trump in the driver’s seat. This one, from Jacksonville University’s Public Policy Institute, pegs the Don at 24%, Jeb at 17%, Fiorina (!) at 16% and Carson and Rubio at 15% each.

NC-Pres: A poll from Elon University finds Trump and Carson leading North Carolina with 22% and 21% respectively. Rounding out the pack is Fiorina (10%), Rubio (7%), Jeb (7%), Cruz (6%), and Huckabee (4%).

MN-Pres: Before Walker dropped out, Minnesota was a stronghold for him. But after his exit, the field is unsettled in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Fiorina has put together an impressive leadership team in the state, including Senate Minority Leader David Hann, Elephant Club (party fundraiser) Co-Chair Molly Corrigan Cronin, and 2014 US Senate nominee Mike McFadden, who is thought to be considering a 2018 gubernatorial bid. Four other state legislators also endorsed her bid. Although the article doesn’t mention it, I’ve heard she (as well as Trump) is shopping for ground staff…..

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Trump…Carson…Fironia..Bush…9/24/15 Poll….

Carson and Fiorina gaining at Donald trumps exspense….

Quinnipiac University Republican /Republican Leaners….Poll.….

                     REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS
                     Sept    Aug     Diff
 
Trump                25%     28%     -3
Carson               17      12      +5
Fiorina              12       5      +7
Bush                 10       7      +3
Rubio                 9       7      +2
Cruz                  7       7      --
Huckabee              2       3      -1
Christie              2       4      -2
Kasich                2       5      -3
Paul                  1       2      -1
Pataki                1       -      +1
Santorum              -       1      -1
Graham                -       -      --
Jindal                -       -      --
Gilmore               -       -      --
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With Scott Walker out…Does Marco Rubio shine brighter?

Another Up in the Up and Down Marco Rubio 2016 Presidential Campaign?

Scott Walker’s exit from the White House race is disrupting the GOP contest, and many observers believe Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) will be the biggest beneficiary.

Rubio and Walker were seen at the outset of the race as the candidates with the best shot at winning over the GOP’s conservative grassroots and then running strong in the general election.

But with the Wisconsin governor now out of the mix, suddenly a new group of supporters — and big-money donors — are up for grabs.

Rubio had already been showing signs of new strength in the wake of the second GOP debate last week, with a poll from CNN/ORC putting him at 11 percent support nationally — good enough for fourth place and a big improvement over the 3 percent he had registered in the same poll just two weeks before.

“Rubio is not putting himself front and center but he is ensuring that at each Republican debate he is well noticed as competent and well-studied,” said GOP consultant Ron Bonjean. “He is showing consistency with those performances.”

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