Tag Archives: Polling

A Year Later, Trump Is Less Popular Across the Board….

We’ve been doing posts on this for the past year…

Some peole do NOT accept that Donald Trump IS losing support among the American public…

Some just drop back to the support that he has among his ‘base’….

The fact is?

He’s losing support in ALl those places…

President Trump’s approval rating fell across a wide swath of demographic groups over his first year in office, including among those seen as important to his base, like white voters, evangelical Christians and those who live in rural areas.

The data is from Morning Consult, a polling company that conducted daily tracking of Mr. Trump’s approval among all adults.

Despite losing some support across many groups, Mr. Trump remains popular with many of the constituencies that helped usher him into the White House. His largest declines were among groups that never supported him much to begin with.

While most presidents see their popularity fade after an initial honeymoon period, Mr. Trump came into office with record-low approval among independents and members of the opposite party (in this case, Democrats), and the decline started more or less immediately, said Charles Franklin, a professor and pollster at Marquette University Law School in Milwaukee….

More with graphics…

A year in his Presidency, Trump polls as a Conservative…FiveThirtyEight

 over at Nate Silver’s blog takes a look at a new YouGov survey that suggests that Americans may have thought Donald Trump was all over the place in political party views…

But now is seen as a Conservative Republican…

I ‘m with their original view that the guy really had no political ideology, but he IS the leader of the Republican party ‘so ya dance with who brought ya’….Attempts by Trump to sneak back to the middle politically get immediate scolding from his adopted party members who remind him of party unity…

Here’s a bit from Enten and the link…

A new YouGov survey released this week found that 5 percent of registered voters think President Trump is liberal, 19 percent think he’s moderate and 51 percent think he’s conservative. So, a majority of voters think the Republican president is a conservative. Typically, that wouldn’t be news. With Trump, however, it is.

Trump was an unusual candidate in many ways, but one important one was that before he took office, we knew less about his political philosophy than that of perhaps any other modern president. We’re now almost a year into Trump’s tenure, though, and his policy agenda has been almost entirely orthodox Republicanism. Voters have noticed.

Before Trump moved into the White House, he took a mix of liberal and conservative positions. He was, for example, vehemently against illegal immigration but in favor of infrastructure spending. He was against gun control, but he claimed to be stronger than Hillary Clinton on LGBT rights. When you totaled up Trump’s ideological score on economic and social issues from the website OnTheIssues — which assigns an ideological grade to politicians’ statements and votes on a scale that we’ve converted to go from -5 (very liberal) to +5 (very conservative) — he came in at +42.5. His score was closer to 0, perfectly “moderate,” than any incoming president of the past 40 years except George H.W. Bush.

Trump’s ideology was hard to pin down before he took office

OnTheIssues scores as of Nov. 2016

SCORE
PRESIDENT ECONOMIC SOCIAL TOTAL
Barack Obama -30.0 -30.0 -60.0
Jimmy Carter -27.5 -32.5 -60.0
Bill Clinton -27.5 -17.5 -45.0
George H.W. Bush +20.0 +15.0 +35.0
Donald Trump +15.0 +27.5 +42.5
Gerald Ford +22.2 +27.5 +49.7
George W. Bush +32.5 +27.5 +60.0
Ronald Reagan +27.8 +33.3 +61.1

The total score scale goes from -100 (liberal) to +100 (conservative). The economic and social scales go from -50 (liberal) to +50 (conservative).

SOURCE: ONTHEISSUES.ORG

Trump’s stances led voters to believe he was relatively moderate for a Republican — or at least that he was ideologically idiosyncratic. More voters viewed Trump as liberal than any incoming GOP president since at least Ronald Reagan, and fewer voters viewed him as conservative than any Republican since at least Reagan. That stood in stark contrast to Clinton, whom the clear majority of voters saw as liberal. Trump’s ideological positioning relative to Clinton’s may have been one of the reasons he was able to pull off a slim Electoral College victory against her.

Upon entering the White House, however, Trump has taken up a primarily conservative agenda. He’s become hawkish on foreign policy, he stocked the federal courts with conservative judges, and he urged Congressional Republicans to push through a massive tax cut that was seen as mostly helping the well-to-do. He also tried to stop transgender Americans from serving in the military. The national infrastructure project seems to be going nowhere.

Therefore, it’s not surprising that Trump’s White House policies have pushed his OnTheIssues score toward the conservative end of the spectrum. Trump’s score is now a +60, compared to a +42.5 before the election….

More…

61 percent of Americans support marijuana legalization …Poll

Republicans, on the whole, do NOT….

Roughly six in 10 Americans think marijuana should be legalized, according to a new Pew Research survey.

Sixty-one percent of respondents said the substance should be legal. That is slightly more than the 57 percent that said so a year ago and it is representative of the steady increase in support for legalizing marijuana that has taken shape over the past decade.

Support for legalization was the highest among Millennials, at 70 percent, according to the Pew survey. They’re followed by Gen Xers, 66 percent of whom support marijuana legalization, and then by Baby Boomers, at 56 percent.

Party affiliation also played a role in support for legalization. Nearly seven in 10 Democrats and 65 percent of independents support legalizing the substance. Among respondents that identify as Republicans, just 43 percent favor legalization….

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The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood…

It looks REALLY Bad for the Grand Ole’ Party for next year’s midterms 10 months out….

Will they do some more to help the Democrats?

…from FiveThirtyEight….

A new CNN survey released this week showed Democrats leading Republicans by an astounding 56 percent to 38 percent on the generic congressional ballot. That’s an 18 percentage point lead among registered voters — a record-breaking result. No other survey taken in November or December in the year before a midterm has found the majority party in the House down by that much since at least the 1938 cycle (as far back as I have data).

And while the CNN poll is a bit of an outlier, the Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot aggregate is up to about 12 points, 49.6 percent to 37.4 percent. That average, like the CNN poll, also shows Republicans in worse shape right now than any other majority party at this point in the midterm cycle1 since at least the 1938 election.

House Republicans remain in a historically poor position

Average of generic congressional ballot polls in November and December in the year before the midterm election

POLLING AVERAGE
CYCLE MAJORITY PARTY MINORITY PARTY MARGIN
2018 37.4% 49.6% -12.2
2006 36.8 46.8 -10.0
1954 41.7 51.3 -9.7
2010 41.0 43.4 -2.4
2014 37.9 39.6 -1.7
1998 40.3 41.7 -1.3
1994 43.0 40.5 +2.5
2002 42.5 39.2 +3.3
1990 36.5 31.5 +5.0
1946 40.0 34.0 +6.0
1986* 43.0 36.0 +7.0
1938 56.0 44.0 +12.0
1970 51.0 38.0 +13.0
1982 53.0 40.0 +13.0
1950 44.0 30.0 +14.0
1958 55.5 37.5 +18.0
1966 57.0 36.0 +21.0
1978* 48.0 22.0 +26.0
1962 61.0 30.0 +31.0
1974* 58.0 26.0 +32.0

No polls were available for the 1942 cycle.
*No November or December polls were available in these cycles. Instead, the final poll from October in the year before the midterm is used.

So Democrats are up a lot. A lot a lot….

….

Other stuff….

Other polling nuggets
  • 63 percent of voters told Quinnipiac University that the economy is good or excellent. That’s a record high since Quinnipiac first asked that question in 2001.
  • Most Americans, 73 percent, believe the world will be a less peaceful place in 2018, per Quinnipiac.
  • A majority of Americans, 60 percent, say Trump’s election to the presidency has made race relations in America worse, according to the Pew Research Center. Only 13 percent felt that way about Obama’s election at this point in his term.
  • The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that 52 percent of Americans say they will “probably” or “definitely” vote for the Democratic candidate in the 2020 presidential election.
  • Bill Clinton’s unfavorable rating is up to 52 percent in Gallup polling. That’s the highest it’s been since 2001. Hillary Clinton’s unfavorable rating has climbed to 61 percent, which is the worst Gallup has ever recorded for her….

More…

Democrat Bredesen leads Tenn. GOP US Sen Blackburn in latest poll….

Democrats are signing up good candidates across the board to gain advantage in a possible ‘wave’ election next year….

With the win in the recent US Senate Special election in Alabama?

Democrats are looking for chances to break into the Southern solid GOP block….Why not in Tennessee ?

Image result for blackburn/bredesen

In the lead-up to former Gov. Phil Bredesen’s decision to launch a bid for the U.S. Senate, polling commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee found the former Nashville mayor had slightly more support than U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn.

The poll found Bredesen was leading Blackburn by 46 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, with 13 percent undecided.

The survey was performed Oct. 20-22, more than a month before the Nashville Democrat entered the race.

Among independents alone, Bredesen’s lead increased in a head-to-head matchup with Blackburn. Forty-eight percent of independents favored Bredesen, while 31 percent were with Blackburn….

More…

image…tennessean.com

Hillary Clinton’s poll number ain’t recovering….

A LOT of people STILL do NOT like her…..

The Clinton ‘brand’ has taken a hit….

Image result for trump/hillary clinton

Former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton‘s favorability rating is at a new low one year after her election loss to President Trump, according to a poll released Tuesday.

Clinton now holds a 36 percent approval rating among Americans, according to Gallup, down 5 percentage points since June. The rating falls below Clinton’s previous low of 38 percent in August to September of last year.

The former first lady also reached a new high disapproval rating of 61 percent. Clinton has bucked the trend of defeated presidential candidates gaining popularity after the election, Gallup says.

Clinton’s unpopularity rivals Trump’s, whose favorability rating remains around 40 percent, a record low for presidents at the end of their first year.

Trump’s favorability has remained low throughout 2017, despite steady economic growth and a series of record stock market highs. ….

More….

image…nydailynews.com

The American public knows the Republicans are picking their pockets with the tax bill…

CNN poll out today as the House, under the Republican leadership votes on a tax bill that will take FROM the poor and middle class and GIVE to the Rich….

With the House of Representatives set to vote on the Republican tax reform bill Tuesday before sending it to the Senate and then the President’s desk for signing on Wednesday, the plan faces growing opposition and a widespread perception that it will benefit the wealthy more than the middle class, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

Opposition to the bill has grown 10 points since early November, and 55% now oppose it. Just 33% say they favor the GOP’s proposals to reform the nation’s tax code….

Breaking…Fox poll shows Democrat Doug Jones with a TEN POINT lead over Republican Roy Moore in Alabama Senate Race…

Oh Snap!….

This poll was done from Dec 7th to the 10th….

It’s results point to observations reported over the last week by several pundit’s that question the polling samples that have been done by smaller outfits….

In addition?

It has become apparent that Jones is gaining support among black and young white higher educated voters thru out the state….

The Democratic vote is united…The Republican vote seems split….

Roy Moore has NOT been out campaigning and adding Donald Trump to the equation maybe told after the vote as a mistake…

The actual vote tomorrow is anyone’s guess….But Democrats have to be in a better mood going into the vote….

Now we’ll see who actually votes…

Democrat Doug Jones holds a 10-point lead over Republican Roy Moore among likely voters in deep red Alabama.

Greater party loyalty plus higher interest in the election among Democrats combined with more enthusiasm among Jones supporters gives him the advantage in the race to fill the U.S. senate seat previously held by U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions.

That’s according to a Fox News Poll of Alabama voters conducted Thursday through Sunday using traditional polling techniques, including a list-based probability sample with both landlines and cellphones.

Jones receives 50 percent to Moore’s 40 percent, with 1-in-10 undecided (8 percent) or supporting another candidate (2 percent) — which could make a difference Tuesday.  That’s even truer with such an unconventional election with unconventional candidates.

poll 1

This race’s uniqueness is significant.  It is impossible to know who will show up to vote in a special election to fill a seat in the middle of a term in an off-year.  And it’s December, a time when people expect to be going to the shopping mall, not the voting booth.

On top of that, accusations of sexual misconduct against Moore emerged November 9.  That’s just a month before the December 12 election.  Since then, he has repeatedly denied the allegations, and after the GOP initially pulled its support, the party ultimately backed Moore.

By a 6-point margin, Alabama voters believe the allegations against Moore are true (39-33 percent).  They were more evenly divided last month, believing the accusations by just 1 point (38-37 percent).  About one quarter, 27 percent, feel it is too soon to say or have no opinion.

Among Republicans, 13 percent believe the accusations are true, 60 percent say they aren’t, and 26 percent are unsure.  In November, it was 13-62 percent (26 percent unsure)….

More….

Note….

This IS a Fox News poll folks….(The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).)

Doug Jones Is Just A Normal Polling Error Away From A Win In Alabama

…from FiveThirtyEight….whuich is hedging their bets,,,,

Things seem to be going Roy Moore’s way. President Trump endorsed him. The Republican National Committee is back to supporting him. And Moore, who has been accused of sexual contact with women when they were underaged, has led by an average of 3 percentage points in polls1 taken within 21 days of the Dec. 12 special Senate election in Alabama. The betting markets give Moore about an 80 percent chance of victory — roughly the same chance they gave Hillary Clinton just before the 2016 presidential election.

Before Election Day last year, we advised caution, however — polls aren’t perfect at even the best of times, Trump had an advantage in the Electoral College, and there were a lot of undecided voters. So what’s our advice heading into the Alabama election? Well, it’s the same — be cautious — but for slightly different reasons.

A look at all U.S. Senate election polls since 19982 shows that their average error — how far off the polls were from the actual election result — is more than a percentage point higher than the average error in presidential polling. Also, Alabama polls have been volatile, this is an off-cycle special election with difficult-to-predict turnout, and there haven’t been many top-quality pollsters surveying the Alabama race. So even though Moore is a favorite, Democrat Doug Jones is just a normal polling error away from winning. (Or, by the same token, Moore could win comfortably.)….

The bottom line is that with less than a week to go in the campaign, Moore seems to have the edge — but he’s far from a sure thing….

More…

Trump approval among Republicans dropping….Poll

Various polls have had Trump support among Republicans as high as 80%…..

Pew polling has released a large poll finding that has Trump’s approval among his own party people DROPPING by 8% points from 84% to 76%….Now that number IS high….But reports here and and from other punditd that Trump’s support which IS strong, is dropping seems to be the case….

The same Pwe poll has the President’s OVERALL approval at a almost record low of just 32%….

Image result for mueller/trump

Donald Trump does seem to be in line with other Republican President with GOP support though ….

…..The new national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted Nov. 29-Dec. 4 among 1,503 adults, finds that President Trump’s job approval rating has declined over the course of his first year in office.

Currently, 32% of the public approves of the way Trump is handling his job as president, while 63% disapprove. Trump’s job approval is little changed since October (34%), but lower than in early February (39%), a few weeks after Trump’s inauguration. Pew Research Center surveys are based on the general public, rather than registered or likely voters. Trump’s approval rating in the current survey among registered voters is 34%. (For more on the differences in these bases, see “A basic question when reading a poll: Does it include or exclude nonvoters?”).

While just 30% of Americans think senior Trump officials definitely had improper contacts with Russia during the campaign, a majority (59%) thinks such contacts definitely or probably occurred; 30% think they definitely or probably did not happen. In views of Mueller’s investigation, 56% are very or somewhat confident he will conduct the probe fairly.

Only about a quarter of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (26%) say Trump officials definitely or probably had improper contacts with Russia during the campaign; 82% of Democrats and Democratic leaners think there were improper contacts – with 49% saying they definitely took place. About two-thirds of Democrats (68%) and 44% Republicans say they are at least somewhat confident Mueller’s investigation will be conducted fairly.

The survey was being conducted when Trump’s former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, pleaded guilty to lying about contacts with Russian officials during the presidential transition. There are no significant differences in opinions about whether senior administration officials had improper campaign contacts with Russia, or in views of Mueller’s investigation, in interviewing conducted before and after Flynn pleaded guilty on Dec. 1….

A majority of Americans DO support the Robert Mueller investigation of Trump’s Russian contacts….Republicans support Trump view of the Russian contacts….Democrats do NOT…

More…

Note….

Everytime I type Trump in Google it goes to the guys home page …..

image…cnn.com

Democartic US Senator’s ask Franken to resign….Update..He’s stepping down

I have said all along that Franken should step aside after Trump and Moore do….They have done thing more serious…

But it appears that some of his colleagues aren’t in agreement with this….

And are giving cover fire to the Republicans…

Seven female senators on Wednesday called on Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) to resign in the wake of multiple sexual misconduct allegations against him.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand was the first of Franken’s fellow Senate Democrats to take that step and was quickly followed by Democratic Sens. Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, Patty Murray of Washington, Kamala Harris of California and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin. Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) also called on Franken to resign.

“While Senator Franken is entitled to have the Ethics Committee conclude its review, I believe it would be better for our country if he sent a clear message that any kind of mistreatment of women in our society isn’t acceptable by stepping aside to let someone else serve,” Gillibrand said in a Facebook post.

The calls came after POLITICO reportedthat a former Democratic congressional aide said he tried to forcibly kiss her after a taping of his radio show in 2006, three years before he became a U.S. senator. Franken, who had previously been accused by six other women of groping or trying to forcibly kiss them, denied the accusation….

More…

Note….

…twitter….

D base is trending toward zero tolerance, R base trending toward Trump/Moore. They’re facing opposite currents.

Just 45% of Dems approved of how their party was handling sexual harassment prior to Conyers resigning and this Franken news (Q poll)

Top Republicans get dragged into accepting Moore in Alabama…

They don’t like it….

But with polls could be showing Roy Moore pulling ahead of Doug Jones and Donald Trump saying he’s FOR Moore this time?

Things have gotten away from them…

…….there’s a clear sense of resignation among GOP senators who have tried to block Moore from winning the race, acknowledging that the explicit seal of approval from Trump has left them no good options in the Dec. 12 contest. McConnell has acknowledged that he can’t force Moore out of the race.

“That’s up to them,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said of the RNC’s renewed involvement in the race, throwing up his hands.

“I can’t blame them. Let’s face it, they represent the Republican Party,” Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) added, speaking about the RNC. “Frankly, I think if he gets elected, that ought to be — that ought to settle an awful lot of the questions.”

The RNC sent $50,000 to the Alabama Republican Party to help Moore in the final week of the campaign. Moore campaigned with former White House strategist Steve Bannon on Tuesday night in Fairhope, an affluent suburb in a county Trump won with more than 70 percent of the vote.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said flatly that she does not think the RNC should be supporting Moore. On his Twitter account Tuesday, Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, one of Moore’s loudest critics in the Senate, showed off a $100 check he made to the campaign of Moore’s Democratic foe, Doug Jones.

“I don’t understand that move,” South Dakota Sen. John Thune, the third-ranking Senate Republican, said of the RNC’s decision. “I guess that’s consistent with what the president wants to see happen, but it’s not consistent with what I’ve been saying. I just think, again, we’re putting ourselves in a situation where we’re going to have a cloud of uncertainty and a cloud of distraction come January.”

McConnell and allies of the majority leader say his position hasn’t shifted since The Washington Post last month printed the first allegations that Moore preyed on teenage girls when he was in his 30s. More than a half-dozen women have accused Moore of sexual misconduct, including some who were teenagers at the time.

“Look, I’ve made my position perfectly clear,” McConnell said. “I had hoped that Judge Moore would resign — in other words, withdraw from the race. That obviously is not going to happen…..

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