Tag Archives: Polling

Trump IS losing support…

The Washington Post shows things graphically….

There is NO doubt that Trump’s failing around as President has caused Americans to begin to have doubts about him….

His numbers are the worst at this point that any modern day President….(Yes he STILL has a strong core base…)

Since Nov. 8, polling has consistently shown that an even smaller percentage of the country thinks the president is doing a good job. The most recent weekly approval rating average from Gallup, for example, has Trump at 39 percent approval — seven percentage points lower than the support he got at the ballot box.

On Monday, Gallup offered a more detailed set of data. Using interviews conducted over Trump’s first six months in office — during which his approval slipped slightly nationally — Gallup determined the average approval in each of the 50 states.

In 17 states Trump’s approval rating was at or above 50 percent. In 31 states, more people disapproved of his job performance than approved.

Unsurprisingly, those states that view Trump positively are also among those that supported him the most during last year’s election. Some states stick out, though: Texas, where Trump is viewed net negatively; and Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the three states that gave him that crucial 78,000-vote margin of victory….

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This is second poll out  today that show’s Trump’s leaking of support…

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NY Times Upshot..Is Trump’s support so solid?

We political junkies continue to try to figure out how strong the Trump base is and isn’t….

A new working paper by the Emory University political scientists B. Pablo Montagnes, Zachary Peskowitz and Joshua McCrain argues that people who identify as Republican may stop doing so if they disapprove of Trump, creating a false stability in his partisan approval numbers even as the absolute number of people approving him shrinks. Gallup data supports this idea, showing a four-percentage-point decline in G.O.P. identification since the 2016 election that is mirrored in other polling, though to a lesser extent.

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President Trump remains popular among Republicans and Republican leaners, but some erosion of support may be hidden. CreditEric Thayer for The New York Times

One example is the MSNBC host Joe Scarborough, a former Republican member of Congress and an increasingly vocal Trump critic who has announced that he is leaving the party. If most people who have stopped identifying as Republicans are Trump disapprovers like Mr. Scarborough, we could observe stable party approval ratings for the president despite waning popularity with his previous party coalition.

Individual news media polls typically do not have a measure of how respondents had answered questions about party identification, so Mr. Montagnes and his co-authors had to estimate a range for Mr. Trump’s G.O.P. approval rating among those “missing” respondents — people who previously identified as Republican but no longer do so. If all of them approve of Mr. Trump, the resulting estimate would be the upper bound on his partisan approval rating. If all such respondents disapprove of him, that would be the lower bound…..

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Political Roundup for 7/19/17…Trump trails all major 2020 Dem’s…RRH Elections

President:

Trump: PPP has polled the 2020 Presidential race. They find Trump trailing all Democrat challengers: Trump 39% to Biden 54%; Trump 39% to Sanders 52%; Trump 42% to Warren 49%; Trump 40% to Booker 45%; Trump 40% to Harris 41% and Trump 40% to Zuckerberg 40%. Sadly PPP did not test the man most likely to be Trump’s 2020 Democratic opponent so we don’t know how Kanye West would fare vs Trump if the election was held today. Please remember this is a PPP poll and they gave Democrats an 11-point advantage in partisan registration so salt to taste.

Hillary: The one Democrat who is still more unpopular that Donald Trump is Hillary Clinton. According the the latest Bloomberg National Poll Hillary Clinton has a 39% approval rating which is 2 points lower than the 41% they had President Trump at…..

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WashPost cautions Democrats on 2018 Midterms….

The last Washington Post/ABC poll had good news for Democrats on Trump’s support….

But a few days later the Post points to a problem Democrats had last November with Hillary Clinton’s vote numbers….

Enthusiasm …..

The Post piece linked below says Democrats are NOT up in arms against Trump…..

Most pundits have forecasted good sized gains for Democrats in the House next fall…

The WashPost view actually connect ‘;s to the way Democratic House candidates have began running  for next years election….

They are using local issues…..

Not just running on Trump, who seems to be OVER attention in the media and has been deemphasized by Democrats ….

A counter to the Post view is the decreased margin Republicans have had in the last few Special Elections for US House elections and the wins some Democrats have pulled off against Republicans in state elections post Trump….

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll offers conflicting forecasts for the 2018 midterm elections, with voters clearly preferring Democrats in control of Congress to check President Trump even as Republicans appear more motivated to show up at the polls.

A slight majority of registered voters — 52 percent — say they want Democrats to control the next Congress, while 38 percent favor Republican control to promote the president’s agenda, according to the poll.

Yet a surge in anti-Trump protests does not appear to have translated into heightened Democratic voter enthusiasm — a signal that could temper Democrats’ hopes for retaking the House majority next year.

Trump’s low approval rating, which dropped to 36 percent from 42 percent in April, could also be significant if it fails to improve in the next year.

The survey also suggests that a shifting electorate could end up propelling Democrats to major gains if voters who have skipped prior midterm elections show up to cast ballots in 2018.

The snapshot emerges just as Congress has hit a major stumbling block in its effort to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, with Republican leaders in the Senate falling short this week of the votes they need to advance their deeply unpopular bill…..

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Trump’s support continues to soften….

Yesterday’s WashPost/ABC Poll seems to paint a picture that has emerged over the last couple of months….

While Trump and the Republicans core base remains strong….

Their support around the edges continues to melt away….

Trump and his adopted Republicans seem tone deaf to the idea that they  trying to do things that MOST American do NOT like or want…..

There IS a midterm election coming up next year…..

fresh Washington Post/ABC News poll underscores the softness of Trump’s support as he prepares to mark six months in the White House on Thursday.

It also highlights a growing intensity gap. Support for the president is more tepid, but opposition is increasingly inflamed.

The president’s overall approval rating has slipped to 36 percent from 42 percent in April. For context, George W. Bush and Barack Obama both held 59 percent approval ratings in Post/ABC polls conducted around their six-month anniversaries.

Media coverage often focuses on how rank-and-file Republicans, as well as elected officials, continue to stand behind Trump. While true, a close examination of the results suggests that no more than 1 in 4 Americans believe passionately in him or his presidency at this juncture.

Trump’s disapproval rating has risen to 58 percent in the national survey, which was conducted last Monday through Thursday. Overall, 48 percent disapprove strongly of how he’s doing. But while 36 percent approve of Trump overall, only 25 percent approve strongly.

Consider the partisan breakdown: 82 percent of self-identified Republicans approve of how Trump is doing, including 62 percent who approve strongly. Meanwhile, 85 percent of Democrats disapprove of Trump, but a larger 75 percent disapprove strongly.

Where Trump really differs from Obama is that his approval leans more heavily on strong backers. Obama’s average “strong” approval was 28 percent during his presidency, not much different than Trump today. But Obama averaged 21 percent “somewhat” approval, 10 points higher than Trump.

Across the battery of questions in the survey, Trump’s hardcore base of support appears to be about a quarter of the public, give or take….

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This dog has felt that Donald Trump’s undoing will be the sheer weight of the continuing Russian connection attention, Robert Mueller’s  outcome and the fact that Trump and the Republicans NEVER REALLY where out for the same things…..

As the overall support declines for Trump we probably will see the slow abandonment of his support in Republican Lawmakers that will hurt Trump’s standing and time in office…

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What is the most important thing in being an American?

A Washington Post Monkey Cage Analysis of what a lot of polled people feel is important in being American….

With some surprises in views against the media views….

On July 4, Mahmoud Esmaeili, a 33-year-old software engineer, became an American citizen. Here’s why: “I like the system here. I like the rule of law. You know what to expect and what to not expect, so you can plan. That was the major part of why I wanted to be part of America.”

The example of Esmaeili is in many ways a microcosm of our long national debate about immigrants and immigration  a debate that hinges on what it means to be an American.

Does being American depend on who you are  your country of origin, your skin color, your religion? Scholars call this an “ethnic” definition of citizenship, and it’s echoed in the Trump administration’s effort to restrict immigration from certain Muslim-majority countries  including Esmaeili’s native Iran.

Or does being American depend on what you believe, such as your respect for American ideals and institutions? Scholars call this a “civic” conceptions of citizenship. Esmaeili articulates this plainly: his very reason for becoming a citizen is his appreciation for American institutions like the rule of law.

So which conception of citizenship takes precedence in the minds of ordinary Americans? My new research sheds light on this question. I find that Americans by far prioritize what people believe, not who they are. A civic conception of citizenship creates a rare bipartisan consensus. But where that consensus breaks down  and what makes the current politics of immigration so fraught  has to do with religion….

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Trump disapproval at 57 percent….Poll

But the guy STILL has Republicans backing him….

Almost 60 percent of Americans disapprove of the job President Trump is doing, according to Gallup’s daily tracking poll.

The disapproval rating, 57 percent, is slightly lower than when Trump reached record disapproval of 60 percent during mid-June, according to the poll.

Between the disapproval and approval ratings, there is a 20-percentage-point difference, with 37 percent of those surveyed in the latest poll saying they approve of the job Trump is doing.

The approval rating is also near the daily poll’s record low mark of 35 percent that occurred in late March.

The past two Democratic presidents, former President Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton, never faced a 60 percent disapproval in the Gallup survey….

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Democratic voters want to keep Pelosi…Poll

But 43% of ALL voters in the Politico/Morning Consult poll think she go….

She will have NO problem being re-elected next year….

Only about one-quarter of Democratic voters think House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) should be replaced, according to a new poll.

A Politico/Morning Consult poll finds just 27 percent of Democratic voters think Pelosi should be replaced, compared to 41 percent who think the Democratic leader should stay in her post.

Another 31 percent don’t have an opinion.

Forty-three percent of all voters think Pelosi should be replaced, pollsters found, compared with just 26 percent who think she should remain.

Pelosi’s favorability ratings are higher among Democrats in the new poll. Forty-nine percent of Democratic voters have a favorable view of Pelosi, compared with 25 percent who have an unfavorable opinion.

In all, just 31 percent of U.S. voters view Pelosi favorably and 46 percent view her unfavorably…..

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Republicans worried about losing this Tuesday’s Special Election in the GA-06…

We’ve been reporting on the special elections for House seats since Trump won in November and the numbers so far are Republicans 3 for 3…..

Democrats where not expected to win any of those first races….

But Tuesdays race is in the South….Georgia….

If Democrat Jon Ossoff can pull off a win in a Atlanta suburb?

Democrats and the Media will posting the event as a anti- Trump event for a national audience …

The GOP is bracing for the prospect of a loss in Tuesday’s Georgia’s special election that could have far-reaching implications for President Donald Trump and his party’s fortunes in 2018.

As grim confidential polling data circulates among GOP strategists, interviews with nearly two dozen Republican operatives and officials reveal that they are preparing for the possibility of an unnerving defeat that could spur lawmakers to distance themselves from Trump and his already-troubled legislative agenda, and potentially encourage a wave of retirements.

While no one is willing to publicly write off Handel’s chances just yet — Republicans stress that she remains competitive and point to robust GOP early voting figures — several private surveys taken over the last few weeks show Republican nominee Karen Handel trending downward, with one private party poll showing 30-year-old Democrat Jon Ossoff opening up a more than five-point lead in the Republican-oriented, suburban Atlanta seat.

“If we’re losing upper middle class, suburban seats in the South to a 30-year-old progressive liberal, we would be foolish not to be deeply concerned about the possibility that would exist for a tidal wave election for Democrats in 2018,” said Chip Lake, a Georgia-based Republican strategist and former Capitol Hill chief of staff.

Some fear the catalytic effect a GOP loss would have on the Democratic opposition, which has been raising money and recruiting candidates at a breakneck pace since Trump’s inauguration.

“If Ossoff wins, you’re going to see the floodgates open, with Democrats recruiting candidates in races from governor to county commission,” said Randy Evans, an influential Republican National Committeeman from Georgia….

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Except for one poll last week that showed Ossoff up by 7% pts?

He has been neck and neck with  Republican nominee Karen Handel, who has found herself losing any lead she would be expected to have  in the House District…

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Political Roundup for June 7th, 2017…Support FOR Immigration Rises in Texas…RRH Elections…

Texas IS moving LESS Red by day…..

For an incredible peek at the political future of the red-but-blueing Sunbelt, check out the Rice University Kinder Institute for Urban Research’s 35th and 36thannual Houston Area Surveys; the Kinder Institute’s polls have long been the most comprehensive non-U.S. Census survey of any American locale. The annual project has not only tracked changes in Greater Houston’s economy and its demographics but also trends in Harris County residents’ opinions on questions of urban development, religion, LGBT issues, abortion, politics, race relations, diversity, immigration, economic policy, criminal justice, and more (and, in the last two years, those of Montgomery and Fort Bend residents as well).

A teaser: Whereas 45% of Harris County residents in 2010-11 agreed that “Immigrants to the U.S. generally contribute more to the American economy than they take,” that number had steadily risen to 63% by 2016-17. In the same years, support for the idea that “The increasing immigration into this country today mostly strengthens, rather than threatens, American culture,” rose from 46% to 65%. Finally, while 55% of Harris County residents in 2010-11 believed that “The U.S. should admit the same number or more legal immigrants in the next ten years as were admitted in the last ten years,” that number grew to 71% in 2016-17. Of interest, these trends have also been broken down by age and race (with white Harris Baby Boomers earning their own section). Similarly, strong growth has been noted in support for LBGT issues and in opposition to the death penalty and mandatory prison sentencing for non-violent drug offenders.

I highly recommend looking through the wealth of public opinion data and trends found in these reports; they likely yield insights not only for understanding political trends in Greater Houston but also those in similarly high-growth Sunbelt metros like the Research Triangle, Charlotte, Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, and Nashville. In any case, the national GOP would be wise to take these trends into account when planning to fight the blueing of these metros, many of America’s fastest-growing…..

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Wash Post…Most Trump voters were NOT Working Class…They were affluent…

The Washington Post has gone  back and looked at the Presidential  election numbers (and GOP Primaries) more in-depth …..

Their look reveals something that seems to be a surprise….

Trump lost the over vote…

But his so called ‘base’?

Isn’t what has been reported….

That base isn’t working class voters that where looking for jobs…

Most are people who HAVE jobs and make between $50,000 to $100,000….

SURPRISE!

Image result for Trump voters

Oh, an the college thing?

Most Republicans do NOT have college degree anyways….

So THAT isn’t part of the conversation at all….

For one, most 2016 polls didn’t include information about how the people surveyed earned a living, that is, their occupations — the preferred measure of social class among scholars. When journalists wrote that Trump was appealing to working-class voters, they didn’t really know whether Trump voters were construction workers or CEOs.

Moreover, according to what is arguably the next-best measure of class, household income, Trump supporters didn’t look overwhelmingly “working class” during the primaries. To the contrary, many polls showed that Trump supporters were mostly affluent Republicans. For example, a March 2016 NBC survey that we analyzed showed that only a third of Trump supporters had household incomes at or below the national median of about $50,000. Another third made $50,000 to $100,000, and another third made $100,000 or more and that was true even when we limited the analysis to only non-Hispanic whites. If being working class means being in the bottom half of the income distribution, the vast majority of Trump supporters during the primaries were not working class.

But what about education? Many pundits noticed early on that Trump’s supporters were mostly people without college degrees. There were two problems with this line of reasoning, however. First, not having a college degree isn’t a guarantee that someone belongs in the working class (think Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg). And, second, although more than 70 percent of Trump supporters didn’t have college degrees, when we looked at the NBC polling data, we noticed something the pundits left out: during the primaries, about 70 percent of allRepublicans didn’t have college degrees, close to the national average (71 percent according to the 2013 Census). Far from being a magnet for the less educated, Trump seemed to have about as many people without college degrees in his camp as we would expect any successful Republican candidate to have.

Trump voters weren’t majority working class in the general election, either.

What about the general election? A few weeks ago, the American National Election Study — the longest-running election survey in the United States — released its 2016 survey data. And it showed that in November 2016, the Trump coalition looked a lot like it did during the primaries…

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The results of this , if proven to be true ?

Would mean that Democratic efforts going forward will have to be adjusted to go after a different voter….

This does go along with the recent piece I did here on the Romeny voter being a possible target for Democrats going ahead…

image..markettech.com

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Democrats have a Black turnout issue after Obama…

This is another post here at the PDog about turnout by blacks in particular…

Democrats have always taken for granted that American blacks would come out and vote against the Republicans for any Democrat….

In 2008 and 2012 that was understatement….

But last November the above didn’t quite kick in…

One wouldn’t have thought that would be case since Hillary Clinton rode the black vote against Bernie Sanders….

But even though Clinton did carry the black vote last November…

It wasn’t at the same level as it was for Barack Obama a mixed race guy who is considered black…

The party is gonna have to figure out a way to get those voters back in 2020…

Democrats are capturing the latino vote , which is growing….

But they need BOTH groups at a higher level…

Lower black turnout in 2016 might be explained as a reversion to the mean after that group’s historic turnout for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. It’s possible that Clinton could never inspire black turnout the way the first African-American president could. But even if this shift is more of a return to the old status quo, Democrats will still have to grapple with these turnout levels going forward, and there are powerful lessons we can learn from the party’s failure to raise or maintain previous black turnout levels in 2016. Painting Trump as a bigot did not motivate more African-Americans to vote, in 2016 or in the Georgia 6th. Hope and shared identity seem to be much more effective turnout motivators than fear.

Elections are decided by two chief factors: Who turns out and which candidate they vote for. It’s been pointed out that turnout alone did not decide the 2016 election — and that the key factor in Trump’s success with groups like the white working class was not that he got way more of them to the polls than Mitt Romney did, but simply that he won a much higher shareof their votes.

But if there was one area where Democratic turnout was undeniably weaker in 2016 than 2012, it was among African-Americans — and this is borne out in my own analysis of the 2016 voter files, which consisted of comparing actual 2016 turnout to pre-election modeled turnout expectations. While most of the conversation around electoral demographics has focused on the growing Latino population, African-Americans are still the most electorally influential nonwhite group because they make up a larger share of the voting population both in the U.S. overall and in swing states in particular. And for Democrats, the influence of black voters is further amplified because, as a group, they vote for Democratic candidates by such large margins. Clinton won about 66 percent of Latino voters, compared to Trump’s 28 percent; she won African-American voters 89 percent to 8 percent. Turnout among Latino voters is rising, and this is good news for Democrats, especially as African-American turnout has fallen….

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Trump’s base IS shrinking…FiveThirtyEight…

For those who keep says Trump’s base is holding?

Read the below….

(Republicans should be worried if this holds)

Trump endured a lot of turbulence in the general election but stuck it out to win the Electoral College. The media doesn’t always guess right about which stories will resonate with voters.

But the theory isn’t supported by the evidence. To the contrary, Trump’s base seems to be eroding. There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trump’s strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support. And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an “enthusiasm gap” that works against Trump at the midterms. The data suggests, in particular, that the GOP’s initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters.

These estimates come from the collection of polls we use for FiveThirtyEight’s approval ratings tracker. Many approval-rating polls give respondents four options: strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove and strongly disapprove. Ordinarily, we only estimate Trump’s overall approval and disapproval. But we went back and collected this more detailed data for all polls for which it was available, and then we reran our approval ratings program to output numbers for all four approval categories instead of the usual two.1 Here are Trump’s strongly approve and somewhat approve ratings from shortly after the start of his term2 through this Tuesday….

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Hillary Clinton carried the email story the whole campaign….

Yup,  she did something that in hindsight was dumb…

Not criminal….

But DUMB.

And YES she was unable to get out from under the issue to Republicans glee….

And finally while he probably didn’t know it….

Donald Trump’s MULTIPLE issues served to NOT the focus any ONE like the current Russian issue is doing NOW….

Image result for hillary Clinton emails

The phrase “But her emails!” has become a sarcastic rallying cry among many liberals who bemoan the attention dedicated last year to questions over Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server.

Their perception ― that the focus on Clinton’s emails overshadowed the rest of her campaign ― is backed by data, according to an analysis recently released by researchers at Gallup, Georgetown University, and the University of Michigan. The results don’t directly address the share of media coverage focused on Clinton’s emails, or the degree to which it hurt her standing, but they make it clear that much of what the public remembered hearing about her was focused on the controversy.

“Email-related scandals clearly dominated recalled words about Clinton. This is true for almost every week of the campaign,” the authors concluded in a presentation given Saturday during a panel on election surveys. “There was no similarly common theme for Trump, whose multiple scandals produced a changing, and perhaps more easily overcome, narrative during the campaign.”….

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 image…dailysignal.com
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Trump’s poll numbers drop even among his base…

This poll was right BEFORE the Comey debacle started to roll out….

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed President Donald Trump’s approval rating back down following a bounce in mid-April.

The poll, taken May 4-9, pegged Trump’s approval at 36% compared to 58% who said they disapprove of his performance as President.
Nearly all interviews were done ahead of the news that Trump had fired FBI Director James Comey on Tuesday.
Trump’s support had ticked up to 40% in a mid-April poll taken after Trump authorized a missile attack on a Syrian air base in response to a chemical weapons attack the US said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad perpetrated on civilians, including babies.
The May poll showed Trump’s approval rating returning nearly to its previous position from a poll released April 4, when he earned a 35% approval rating.
Among subgroups, Trump lost significant support among white respondents without college degrees. This demographic has consistently been one of the stronger groups for Trump and is a rough picture of the white working class…..
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New poll gives New Jersey Democrat Phil Murphy a monster 50-25 lead in this fall’s governor race

Former Saturday Night Live castmember Joe Piscopo has finally put us out of our misery and announced that, rather than run for governor of New Jersey this year as an independent, he will instead endorse GOP Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno. However, according to a new Quinnipiac poll, it’s going to take a whole lot more than Jersey Joe’s support to get Guadagno to Drumthwacket.

Quinnipiac gives Phil Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive and the clear Democratic primary frontrunner, a monster 50-25 lead in a hypothetical general election, not much different than the 47-25 edge the found in March. Neither candidate is still very well-known, though Murphy’s 28-12 score is much better than Guadagno’s 18-23 image. This time, Quinnipiac does not appear to have asked respondents how they feel about termed-out GOP Gov. Chris Christie, but previous surveys from multiple groups have given him a horrible approval rating. Christie and Guadagno do not have a good relationship, but not enough people in the Garden State seem to know that or care.

Quinnipiac also takes a look at both parties’ June 6 primaries, and most voters still are undecided….

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Goldman Sach’s has been the bulklpen for Washington politics since Trump won….

The Dog….

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