Tag Archives: Polling

Trump’s base IS shrinking…FiveThirtyEight…

For those who keep says Trump’s base is holding?

Read the below….

(Republicans should be worried if this holds)

Trump endured a lot of turbulence in the general election but stuck it out to win the Electoral College. The media doesn’t always guess right about which stories will resonate with voters.

But the theory isn’t supported by the evidence. To the contrary, Trump’s base seems to be eroding. There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trump’s strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support. And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an “enthusiasm gap” that works against Trump at the midterms. The data suggests, in particular, that the GOP’s initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters.

These estimates come from the collection of polls we use for FiveThirtyEight’s approval ratings tracker. Many approval-rating polls give respondents four options: strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove and strongly disapprove. Ordinarily, we only estimate Trump’s overall approval and disapproval. But we went back and collected this more detailed data for all polls for which it was available, and then we reran our approval ratings program to output numbers for all four approval categories instead of the usual two.1 Here are Trump’s strongly approve and somewhat approve ratings from shortly after the start of his term2 through this Tuesday….

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Hillary Clinton carried the email story the whole campaign….

Yup,  she did something that in hindsight was dumb…

Not criminal….

But DUMB.

And YES she was unable to get out from under the issue to Republicans glee….

And finally while he probably didn’t know it….

Donald Trump’s MULTIPLE issues served to NOT the focus any ONE like the current Russian issue is doing NOW….

Image result for hillary Clinton emails

The phrase “But her emails!” has become a sarcastic rallying cry among many liberals who bemoan the attention dedicated last year to questions over Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server.

Their perception ― that the focus on Clinton’s emails overshadowed the rest of her campaign ― is backed by data, according to an analysis recently released by researchers at Gallup, Georgetown University, and the University of Michigan. The results don’t directly address the share of media coverage focused on Clinton’s emails, or the degree to which it hurt her standing, but they make it clear that much of what the public remembered hearing about her was focused on the controversy.

“Email-related scandals clearly dominated recalled words about Clinton. This is true for almost every week of the campaign,” the authors concluded in a presentation given Saturday during a panel on election surveys. “There was no similarly common theme for Trump, whose multiple scandals produced a changing, and perhaps more easily overcome, narrative during the campaign.”….

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 image…dailysignal.com
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Trump’s poll numbers drop even among his base…

This poll was right BEFORE the Comey debacle started to roll out….

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed President Donald Trump’s approval rating back down following a bounce in mid-April.

The poll, taken May 4-9, pegged Trump’s approval at 36% compared to 58% who said they disapprove of his performance as President.
Nearly all interviews were done ahead of the news that Trump had fired FBI Director James Comey on Tuesday.
Trump’s support had ticked up to 40% in a mid-April poll taken after Trump authorized a missile attack on a Syrian air base in response to a chemical weapons attack the US said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad perpetrated on civilians, including babies.
The May poll showed Trump’s approval rating returning nearly to its previous position from a poll released April 4, when he earned a 35% approval rating.
Among subgroups, Trump lost significant support among white respondents without college degrees. This demographic has consistently been one of the stronger groups for Trump and is a rough picture of the white working class…..
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New poll gives New Jersey Democrat Phil Murphy a monster 50-25 lead in this fall’s governor race

Former Saturday Night Live castmember Joe Piscopo has finally put us out of our misery and announced that, rather than run for governor of New Jersey this year as an independent, he will instead endorse GOP Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno. However, according to a new Quinnipiac poll, it’s going to take a whole lot more than Jersey Joe’s support to get Guadagno to Drumthwacket.

Quinnipiac gives Phil Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive and the clear Democratic primary frontrunner, a monster 50-25 lead in a hypothetical general election, not much different than the 47-25 edge the found in March. Neither candidate is still very well-known, though Murphy’s 28-12 score is much better than Guadagno’s 18-23 image. This time, Quinnipiac does not appear to have asked respondents how they feel about termed-out GOP Gov. Chris Christie, but previous surveys from multiple groups have given him a horrible approval rating. Christie and Guadagno do not have a good relationship, but not enough people in the Garden State seem to know that or care.

Quinnipiac also takes a look at both parties’ June 6 primaries, and most voters still are undecided….

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Note….

Goldman Sach’s has been the bulklpen for Washington politics since Trump won….

The Dog….

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GA-06 Update…Ossoff up 48% to 47%….

Basically a tie, which is damn good for Democrat Jon Ossoff….

An internal poll conducted for Democrat Jon Ossoff’s campaignshows him locked in a dead heat with Republican Karen Handel in the June 20 runoff to represent Georgia’s 6th District.

The poll was conducted by Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, a polling firm that worked for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. And while it’s an internal poll, it’s also the first we’ve seen since Ossoff narrowly missed an outright win in last month’s special election.

It shows Ossoff leading Handel 48-47, well within the 4 percent margin of error. It has a scant 5 percent of voters in the district as undecided – reflective of the all-consuming nature of the nationally-watched race.

Ossoff campaign manager Keenan Pontoni said it shows the 30-year-old Democrat, until a few months ago scarcely known in the district, is “winning” thanks to on-the-ground enthusiasm….

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image…AJC.com

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American’s want MORE Government…Not Less…

The Republicans mantra is LESS government…

THAT isn’t what American want….

Is the Republican Partygoing the WRONG way with the majority of American voters who voted AGAINST Donald Trump

RIP, Tea Party: A record number of Americans say government “should do more”

And this is another striking finding from the NBC/WSJ poll: 57% of the public says that the government should do more to solve problems and meet the needs of Americans, versus 39% who said the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. That’s the highest share yearning for a more active government since the poll began asking voters about the role of government in 1995. And it’s a significant shift even since 2015, when 50% said that the government should do more while 46% complained that it was too active. More NBC/WSJ poll numbers are coming out later today….

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In November, voters gave control of the White House and Capitol Hill to the party traditionally associated with reducing the size of government. But now, a record number of Americans say that the government should do more — not less — in order to solve the nation’s problems.

A new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll finds 57 percent of the public saying that the government should do more to solve problems and meet the needs of Americans, versus 39 percent who said the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.

That’s the highest share yearning for a more active government since the poll began asking voters about the role of government in 1995. And it’s a significant shift even since 2015, when 50 percent said that the government should do more while 46 percent complained that it was too active….

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Polling continues to point to Trump’s minority support status….

Public Policy Polling is out joining the others in showing a President coming up on 100 days in offoce that has Most America distrustful of a lot of his domestic and foreign policies….(They want him to play less Golf)

The April 2017 poll isn’t good news for other Republican lawmakers in leadership spots either…

PPP’s newest national poll finds that the Democratic enthusiasm that led to strong finishes in special elections in Georgia and Kansas over the last week is a national phenomenon.

Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 47-41. But what’s more notable is the enthusiasm imbalance. 63% of Democrats say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting in the 2018 election, compared to only 52% of Republicans who express that sentiment. When you look at the 2018 House picture just among the voters most excited about turning out next year, the lead for Democrats grows to 19 points at 57-38. Republican leaning voters are comparatively disengaged, with the GOP holding advantages only among voters who are ‘somewhat excited’ (48-40) and ‘not that excited’ (46-31).

One reason for the comparative lack of Republican excitement may be the continued unpopularity of Donald Trump. Only 43% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 50% who disapprove. The core promise of Trump’s campaign was to ‘Make America Great Again,’ but only 35% of voters actually think he’s accomplished that goal to 55% who think he hasn’t.

Foreign policy has taken on a larger role in the national discussion in recent weeks and Trump’s leadership on that front isn’t inspiring a ton of confidence. 39% of voters think he will get the United States into World War III during his Presidency, to just 40% of voters who don’t think he’s going to have that effect. Trump has continued to attack the Obama administration’s approach to foreign policy lately, but by a 51/39 spread voters think Obama had a better handle on foreign policy than Trump. And by a 51/43 split, voters would rather still have Obama than Trump as President overall….

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More ‘Big Apple’ Fans are Mets fans …NOT Yankee fans…

Count me in as with the Mets…

Image result for Mets baseball team vs yankees

For the first time since 1998, a Quinnipiac Poll found that more New York City fans would root for the Mets over the Yankees in a Subway Series. To find out what’s behind the shift, Morning Edition’s Richard Hake spoke with Harry Enten, a senior writer at FiveThirtyEight.com.

“Wins and losses are a big part of it,” Enten said. In recent years, the Mets have just been better.

The other reason, he said, is that many younger fans never got to see the Yankees in their prime: “The Derek Jeter Yankees. The Darryl Strawberry Yankees. The Paul O’Neill Yankees. They have no real memory of that.”

….from WNYC….

image…Sporting News

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Is Donald Trump helping Democrats come back next year?

Pundit Charlie Cook thinks that if Trump and the Freedom Caucus work hard enough?

They could hand the Democrats MAJORITIES coming out of the 2018 Midterm Elections….

If Cook is anywhere NEAR Right?

There IS a Wave election beginning to form…AGAINST Republicans, WHO WITH THEIR MAJORITY?….. do NOT know what to do….

We’ve got a long way to go before the 2018 midterms. But, the current situation of Republican-infighting, a lack of legislative accomplishments and a President determined to keep stoking political divisions is a very dangerous path for the GOP. The good news for Trump: Compared to the last three presidents in their first term, he has about half as many “vulnerable” House members of his own party to worry about. The bad news: if Trump’s numbers continue to look this bad, it helps Democrats recruiting efforts to challenge these incumbents and more. In fact, Trump’s numbers now look more like those of a president who is about to be hit by a wave election that wipes his party out of power in the House, than one who is going to be able to ride a wave of success. This should worry Trump, not just because it means he loses legislative leverage for his agenda, but it means that Democrats now get subpoena power. If you think the Russia/Trump stories are bad for the administration now, just imagine what they’ll look like with Democrats in charge of the oversight committees….

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Trump polls above House GOP Speaker Paul Ryan back in Ryan’s Wisconsin and Nationally…

Trump , the real estate saleman, and entertainer,  has trumped Paul Ryan in his own state….

…One thing we’ve noticed, though, is that Ryan — and the Republican establishment that he represents — has consistently been viewed less positively than Trump himself, even before Trump secured the nomination. On a national level, more than half of Republicans told NBC and SurveyMonkey in May that they trusted Trump to lead the Republican Party more than they did Ryan. That wasn’t true in Wisconsin, it’s safe to assume, given that Ryan’s net favorability (those viewing him positively minus those viewing him negatively) among Republicans in his home state in early August was plus-72 to Trump’s plus-31.

But, as the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel pointed out Tuesday, that has changed. Since the state’s primary, Wisconsin Republicans have grown more and more fond of the man who would become the leader of their party, and this month, for the first time, Trump’s approval ratings match Ryan’s. On net, Trump is viewed more positively…..

Nationally, the gulf is even wider at this point, according to a new CBS News poll.

On net, Trump has a plus-72 rating from Republicans. Ryan is at plus-32.

Again, Trump has been more popular with Republicans than Ryan has for a long time. But now that sentiment has spread even to Ryan’s home turf, that bastion of the Republican establishment, that Alamo of the traditional GOP.

The Trump takeover is complete….

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Poll…3% of Trump voters regret their vote..That’s all…

Donald Trump IS holding his base with a little more than 60 days in office

But is losing everyone else as his overall polling numbers drop….

One also must remember that the base number and the overall vote numbers in Novembers lection put Trump’s base at about only 40%…..

Within weeks of the November 2016 U.S. presidential election, social media posts expressing voters’ second thoughts began trending. While some Donald Trump voters felt he was backtracking on initial hard-line positions, the Huffington Post and other websites reported on hashtags such as #Trumpgrets — used by voters irked that his campaign persona was not simply an act to win votes. A subsequent wave of regretful Trump voters tweeted about executive orders they perceived as misguided and dangerous.

Even more nuanced mainstream news stories included such headlines as “These Iowans voted for Trump. Many of them are already disappointed” or comments that “a significant segment of Trump’s coalition is not entirely enchanted with his actions or public persona.”

In contrast, polls seem to suggest that the 45th president enjoys historically high approval ratings among members of his party. Other journalists report continuing enthusiasm from the small towns that delivered his strongest electoral support.

….

The Mood of the Nation Poll shows clearly that media attention to the #trumpregrets phenomenon is very misleading. For Trump’s supporters, any news reports that his first weeks as president have been rocky, unpresidential or worse have hardly mattered. There is virtually no regret.

While his governance has galvanized opposition groups and his overall approval level remains low by historical standards, his electoral base is not only intact but enthusiastic and energized, providing Trump with a significant base of power……

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A Majority of Young American’s don’t accept Trump as their President…Poll

The man IS the sworn in 45th President of the United States….

But as in the popular vote?

Most Americans ARE NOT happy he’s in the White House…

His daily twitter rants isn’t helping the guy ….

And ALL the polls are showing his approval numbers DROPPING to new lows….

He may be keeping his support among his base…

But everyone else is turning thumbs down on the guy….

Especially Young America....

Jermaine Anderson keeps going back to the same memory of Donald Trump, then a candidate for president of the United States, referring to some Mexican immigrants as rapists and murderers.

“You can’t be saying that (if) you’re the president,” says Anderson, a 21-year-old student from Coconut Creek, Florida.

That Trump is undeniably the nation’s 45th president doesn’t sit easily with young Americans like Anderson who are the nation’s increasingly diverse electorate of the future, according to a new poll. A majority of young adults — 57 percent — see Trump’s presidency as illegitimate, including about three-quarters of blacks and large majorities of Latinos and Asians, the GenForward poll found.

GenForward is a poll of adults age 18 to 30 conducted by the Black Youth Project at the University of Chicago with The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

A slim majority of young whites in the poll, 53 percent, consider Trump a legitimate president, but even among that group 55 percent disapprove of the job he’s doing, according to the survey.

“That’s who we voted for. And obviously America wanted him more than Hillary Clinton,” said Rebecca Gallardo, a 30-year-old nursing student from Kansas City, Missouri, who voted for Trump.

Trump’s legitimacy as president was questioned earlier this year by Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga.: “I think the Russians participated in helping this man get elected. And they helped destroy the candidacy of Hillary Clinton.”

Trump routinely denies that and says he captured the presidency in large part by winning states such as Michigan and Wisconsin that Clinton may have taken for granted.

Overall, just 22 percent of young adults approve of the job he is doing as president, while 62 percent disapprove….

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Gallup Poll…Trump approval falls BELOW Obama’s…

Keep at it Donald.!….

Image result for Trump

President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a new low of 37% since he took office in January, according to the latest Gallup poll.

While 37% of Americans approve of the job the President is doing, 58% disapprove. His approval rating stood at 45% last week, poll numbers showed.

The daily poll results are based on telephone interviews with 1,500 people nationwide and has a 3% margin of error.

Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, consistently polled approval ratings in the low 50s and his disapproval ratings were in the mid-40s all throughout March 2016, according to Gallup.

The latest poll comes after Republicans pitched their proposals to repeal and replace Obamacare. The health care plan could leave 24 million people uninsured by 2026, according to the Congressional Budget Office….

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image…Time

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Democrats signal they’ll fight against Trump Border Wall funding…

Senate Minority Leader Schumer has chosen a place to fight where he could get a good amount of support against Trump’s campaign promise from Republicans even….

And the Mexican’s of course…

Senate Democrats are warning GOP leaders not to include funding for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border in a funding bill to keep the government open, saying it could jeopardize the measure’s passage.

“We believe it would be inappropriate to insist on the inclusion of such funding in a must-pass appropriations bill that is needed for the Republican majority in control of the Congress to avert a government shutdown so early in President Trump’s Administration,” the Democrats said in a letter to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Thad Cochran (R-Miss.).

The signers of the letter, released Monday, include Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), as well as Sens. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.).

The government is currently being funded through April 28 by a stopgap spending bill that was passed in December.

Already, President Donald Trump’s secretary of Homeland Security has directed his agency to look for funding sources it might already have available as the administration looks for ways to fulfill one of the the president’s top campaign promises. A Morning Consult/POLITICO survey in January found 47 percent of Americans support construction of the wall, while 45 percent do not.

The Democratic senators said the wall could be expensive and “raises considerable issues that have not been resolved by the Congress or the Department of Homeland Security.”

Another Morning Consult/POLITICO survey in January showed that support for the wall dropped considerably when the issue of cost was raised….

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Trump vs The Media?….Media winning so far…Poll

Donald Trump doesn’t like any Media stuff that isn’t nice’ to him….

He’s gone so far as use the word ‘fake’ news to label anything that isn’t complimentary to him….

He doesn’t answer questions from reporters from the major national news outlets mostly either….

It’s NOT played well with the American public which has its own problems with the media , BUT?……

Which SUPPORTS  a ‘free press’ and one that DOES ask HARD questions….

It’s pretty clear what President Trump is doing by going after the media. He sees someone who is tough on him, with a lower approval rating, and he sets up a contrast. It’s like making yourself look taller by standing next to a short person.

“You have a lower approval rate than Congress,” he needled reporters at last week’s news conference, making clear he had done the math.

Except maybe it’s not really working.

A new poll from Quinnipiac University suggests that while people may be broadly unhappy with the mainstream media, they still think it’s more credible than Trump. The president regularly accuses the press of “fake news,” but people see more “fake news” coming out of his own mouth.

The poll asked who registered voters “trust more to tell you the truth about important issues.” A majority — 52 percent — picked the media. Just 37 percent picked Trump.

The poll did find that registered voters by a narrow margin think the media has treated Trump unfairly, with 50 percent saying they disapproved of the coverage of Trump and 45 percent approving. But voters are even more critical of Trump’s treatment of the media, with 61 percent disapproving and 35 percent approving.

Even 23 percent of Republicans say Trump is mistreating the media, and independents disapprove 59-35….

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Joe Piscopo for Jersey Governor…Really….

As a Trump supporting Republican….

Image result for joe piscopo

Mr. Piscopo, 65, still managed to draw giggles from the $50,000-a-table crowd at the gala to help bring pandas to New York City. But his self-discipline is part of an effort to project a more sober image as he weighs his next move: trading in his Sinatra for a run for governor of his home state, New Jersey.

“I’m very serious about it,” he said. “I’ve never been more serious about anything in my life.”

While the daily whiplash out of Washington commands almost all the political attention, New Jersey is one of two states that will elect a new governor this year, as the eight-year reign of Gov. Chris Christie, once a national darling and now with historically low approval in his home state, comes to an end. And Mr. Piscopo is hoping to parlay his Jersey credentials and rising political profile — he campaigned for President Trump, and his radio show focuses on conservative politics — into a long-shot bid for governor as either a Republican or an independent in a state where Democratic voters vastly outnumber Republicans.

A recent poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University found that the category of “someone else” was within the margin of sampling error of equaling Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, the current leading Republican. Mr. Piscopo, who has not made an official announcement, trailed Ms. Guadagno and “someone else.”….

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image…6ABC.com

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