Tag Archives: Politics - Page 4

Sabato Crystal Ball…GOP Maybe by 1 to 3…Which Ones?

For now, the Crystal Ball is right where we have been for a long time — thinking that the math and the map look likely to produce a modest Republican Senate majority of one to three seats. Exactly which seats could constitute this majority remains unsettled.

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Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest 10/15/14… PPP sees Idaho Republican Butch Otter up just 3 in governor race

ID-Gov: Republican Gov. Butch Otter has never been particularly popular even in dark red Idaho, but it was still a surprise when the Republican Governor’s Association committed six figures to his re-election at the beginning of October. It was hard to believe that the RGA would spend so much so late in the cycle unless they were worried about Otter’s future, and a new Public Policy Polling survey confirms that this contest is a lot more interesting than anyone had a reason to think.

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Election*Projection…House and Senate Blue….

House Republicans aren’t enjoying the kind of wave election we saw in 2010, but that’s not so bad when your ranks can swell despite already owning a healthy majority.

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Counter…The Islamic State isn’t winning….

In truth, the threat posed to Baghdad this autumn is emerging less because ISIL is winning the war in Iraq and more because it might be slowly but steadily losing it. All across north-central Iraq, ISIL is being challenged by joint forces comprised of Sunni tribes, Shia militias, Iraqi soldiers, Iranian advisors and U.S. airpower. ISIL is struggling to maintain its grip on this battlefield of strange bedfellows, and it could be moving on Baghdad now out of a desperate need for a big victory more than anything else.

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Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest 10/14/14… PPP finds two tight races in Kansas

KS-Sen, Gov: PPP returns to the Sunflower State and finds both races closer than a month ago. In the U.S. Senate contest, they find independent Greg Orman leading Republican Sen. Pat Roberts 44-41. With this poll included, Huffpost Pollster’s average for this race is 44-43 Roberts, but the numbers for this contest have been all over the map recently. Since Oct. 1 we’ve seen everything from a 10-point Orman lead (Marist) to a 5-point Roberts’ edge (FOX).

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Political Roundup for October 14th, 2014…Davis sticks by her wheelchair ad in Texas Governor Race…Red Racing Horses

TX-Gov: What do you do when everybody condemns your (Wendy Davis) attack ad targeting a man (Greg Abbott) in a wheelchair for hating disabled people? If you’re Wendy, you call a press conference, flank yourself with more disabled individuals, and accuse your candidate of hypocrisy…..

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Wang @ Princeton Election Consortium falls in line …Democrats 40% chance of Senate majority…

As planned for a long time, we’re switching soon to a short-term forecast. As I wrote last month, the Meta-Margin has some predictive value for where it will be within five weeks. The election is in five weeks, so it’s time to start factoring in current conditions.

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Rothenberg on Arkansas, South Dakota and Alaska …10/13/14

Arkansas…. Arkansas Senate polls conducted by Democrats and one media outlet suggest Sen. Mark Pryor leads GOP challenger Rep. Tom Cotton by a couple of percentage points. But most surveys – both public and unreleased – suggest Cotton holds a …

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Warren knocks Obama and praises him on the Banks….

“If Barack Obama had not been president of the United States we would not have a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Period,” she said.

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“Cantored”….

Staffers have now coined the term “Cantored”, meaning to lose in what is otherwise considered to be a safe, Republican-controlled seat.

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Beer Growler’s…Craft brewers vs Budweiser in Florida

As political issues go, this may seem like small beer. But the growler ban has attracted enough attention that Governor Rick Scott, a Republican who’s up for reelection, and Charlie Crist, his Democratic challenger, have taken positions on growler sales

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A new healthcare.gov website update is in the works….

About 20,000 applications have been completed through the new site since July. That’s part of the stress-testing the administration has done to make sure that the kinds of problems that made last year’s rollout a disaster won’t be repeated. But beyond that, they’ve made the process much simpler……

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In Georgia…40,000 back logged voter applications….

“Somewhere in that mix, this feels like voter suppression,” said the Rev. Raphael G. Warnock, senior pastor at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church. During a joint interview with Abrams, he cast the moves as an effort to block black voters instead of reach out to them.

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How is the President gonna get a replacement for AG Holder confirmed?

If the president doesn’t act until after the election, that would leave Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid with little room for error in getting the nomination to the floor before Christmas.

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Political Roundup for October 9, 2014…Dem’s anti up $1 Mil for SD Senate race…Christie brand improvement?…Red Racing Horses

South Dakota: The Democrats are making a $1 million investment in the South Dakota US Senate race by attacking Republican former Governor Mike Rounds…..
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George Will gives another good review of how good of a year Christie has had so far and how it can get better if the RGA performs well

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US Senate Things may seem pro Republican..But they are still shaky…

Election Day may not resolve things, either. If the balance stays as even as it appears now, the question of which party holds a Senate majority may not be resolved until the last ballots are counted — and perhaps recounted — in far-flung precincts of Alaska. Or maybe until runoff elections that could happen as late as January.

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