Former GOP frontrunner and millionaire real-estate developer Donald “Puny Fingers” Trump suffered major setbacks this past Saturday when he lost Kansas and Maine to Texas Senator Ted Cruz by blow-out margins and ultimately won Kentucky and Louisiana, two states in which he was supposed to post wipe-out margins, by around 3-4% over Senator Cruz.
To make matters worse, a recent poll out of Michigan showed Trump trailing, of all people, Ohio Governor John Kasich by a slim margin. Cruz’s numbers have also been on the ascendancy of late, which is entirely understandable given his Primary wins this weekend. Given Trump’s signature under-performance of his poll numbers, one has every reason to think that he’s not doing at all well there.
Same goes for down in the state of Mississippi. Polls have showed Trump with decent enough leads in the Magnolia State, but recent Primary history tells us Trump is in for a much narrower-than-expected win, as Trump spectacularly under-performed his poll numbers in such Southern states as Arkansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana in the past week. Additionally, Trump is not expected to do well in the voting in Mormon Idaho(Romney’s #NeverTrump speech should make a big difference here) and in minority-majority Hawaii(a mirror-image, in some respects, of the American Samoan Primaries this past Sunday, where Florida Senator Marco Rubio triumphed with 3/4 of the vote). In sum, the state of Trump’s campaign is NOT looking good as they head into tomorrow’s voting.
Predictions for the Republican Primaries:
Hawaii–Rubio wins with 68%, to Trump’s 19% and Cruz’s 11%.
Idaho–Rubio wins with 51%, to Trump’s 36% and Cruz’s 10%.
Michigan–Kasich wins 35-29-27 over Cruz and Trump, with Rubio pulling in 9%.
Mississippi–Trump wins 34-33 over Cruz, with Rubio pulling in 20% and Kasich bringing up the rear with 13%.
The Democratic Primary has endured its own variety of shake-ups of late, with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders scoring impressive wins in Colorado, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Vermont. Last night, the candidates debated in Flint, MI, and both came out swinging against the other.
One, the other, or both got in sturdy digs in at each other. Former First Lady Hillary Clinton’s major dig in at Sanders involved his vote against the automotive bailout(the same issue, BTW, that sunk 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney’s chances in this state), which he justified as being a vote against the Wall Street interests involved in the crafting and implementation of the aforementioned legislation.
Sanders, for his part, hit Clinton on her seeming advocation for closing down all gun manufacturers in America, essentially ending the manufacturing, distribution, and trade of guns in America.
Where he thought he was going with this issue is beyond me, since he was seeming to attack a mainstream position within the Democratic Party and electorate.
While it may not hurt him amongst the economically-centred voters of Michigan, whatever strategy he has long-term has to be at least somewhat hampered by this. Polls of late have shown Clinton with a strong lead over Sanders, and, like so in most of the other states, the state party’s establishment is solidly behind her.
Liberal, grass-smoking activists have coalesced behind Comrade Sanders, and his message should resonate with average voters tired of the divisive rhetoric of the Donald Trumps and the Hillary Clintons of the political world and who are seeking out a refreshing change of some sort. It probably won’t be enough to save Sanders, though.
Also of ‘note’: The Mississippi Primary, which is more of an afterthought, as Clinton will almost certainly register yet another shattering win in the states of the Deep South.
Predictions for the Democratic Primaries:
Michigan–Clinton over Sanders 53-46.
Mississippi–Clinton over Sanders 76-21.