Tag Archives: NYC Mayors race 2013

In the Big Races Tomorrow…No Surprises expected….

The New Jersey Governor Race has Christie sailing to a big victory according polling…

The Virginia Governor’s Race has McAullife witha solid lead…..

In the NYC Mayor’s race another big victory is coming….

Christie Headed for Big Win

A new Monmouth poll in New Jersey finds Gov. Chris Christie with a 20 point lead over Barbara Buono (D) in the race for governor, 57% to 37%.

A new Fairleigh Dickinson poll finds Christie with a 19 point lead, 59% to 40%.

A new Rutgers Eagleton poll gives Christie a 36 point lead, 66% to 30%.

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Christie with a 28 point lead, 61% to 33%.

McAuliffe Still Leads Heading Into Final Day

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) comfortably ahead of Ken Cuccinelli (R) in the race for governor, 50% to 43%, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 4%.

In the Lt. Governor’s race Ralph Northam is headed for a blowout win over E.W. Jackson, 52% to 39%. The intrigue will be in the Attorney General contest where Mark Herring is only up 47% to 45%.

A new Quinnipiac poll finds McAuliffe leading by six points, 46% to 40%, with Sarvis at 8%.

Politicalwire above….

Bill de Blasio Maintains Huge Lead Over Joe Lhota Days Before NYC Mayoral Election: NBC4NY Poll

With just days before Tuesday’s election, 65 percent of likely voters say they will vote for de Blasio, compared to 24 percent for Lhota, a new NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll shows. That’s virtually unchanged from when the campaign started, after three debates. Back then, a NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll found de Blasio leading Lhota 65 percent to 22 percent.

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Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest 8/14/13: De Blasio rockets into first in new Quinnipiac poll

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by David Nir

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Leading Off:

• NYC Mayor: Look out! Quinnpiac’s new poll of the NYC mayoral Democratic primary shows Public Advocate Bill de Blasio surging into the lead for the first time, taking 30 percent among likely voters, with City Council Speaker Christine Quinn at 24, former Comptroller Bill Thompson at 22, and ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner descending to also-ran status at just 10. Two weeks ago, Quinn had a 27-21 lead over de Blasio, with Thompson close behind at 21 and Weiner already faded to 16.

Since then, though, de Blasio’s gone up with a compelling first spot about stop-and-frisk featuring his 15-year-old son. De Blasio’s also received a lot of glowing press coverage lately (including a profile on the front page of the New York Times) highlighting his progressive credentials. But whether it’s the TV ads or the positive media treatment (or both), de Blasio’s gotten real a bounce; Quinn, on the other hand, did not see the same thing after going on the air, despite spending similar sums. (Her first ad was pretty generic and boring.)

And based on his recent performance, Quinnipiac has started including de Blasio in their hypothetical runoff scenarios, where he also wrecks shop. He leads Quinn 54-38 and Thompson 50-41 (and, comically, Weiner as well, by a 72-22 spread). While it might be tempting to chalk up de Blasio’s bigger margin over Quinn versus Thompson to the first pair’s wide ideological gulf, Thompson also beats Quinn, 51-41, which suggests to me that we may be looking at more of a likeability gap. Quinnipiac unfortunately doesn’t ask for candidates’ favorables, so it’s hard to say for sure, but Quinn even manages to do worse in a runoff with Weiner (winning by “only” 60-31), so it just seems that she’s not very well-liked in general.

Of course, there’s still a month to the primary, and as this poll shows, things can change fast. Thompson, for instance, might earn his own bump once he finally goes on the air, and even Weiner could scrape together a few more votes when he starts advertising, too. But for the moment at least, Bill de Blasio gets to feel very good….

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NYC’s GOP Mayoral Candidates do Staten Island for July 4th….

There isn’t much media being done on the Republican’s running for New York City Mayor this year….

The odds are very slim they’ll make it….

But the New York Times sent a reporter to do a piece on John A. Catsimatidis and Joseph J. Lhota, and one Democrat, John C. Liu who all went to Staten Island to walk their Fourth of July Pararde and press the fllesh…..

Two Republican candidates, John A. Catsimatidis and Joseph J. Lhota, and one Democrat, John C. Liu, participated in the parade, trying to woo Staten Islanders cheering from the sidewalk.

Mr. Catsimatidis, a billionaire businessman, walked down Victory Boulevard with a big smile, and wearing a blazer in the nearly 90-degree heat. “I want to make sure that the people of Staten Island know it’s important for me to be here,” he said. To his left was State Senator Andrew J. Lanza, a Republican who represents about two-thirds of Staten Island and who endorsed Mr. Catsimatidis in May.

Asked whether he felt confident that he would receive the borough’s support, Mr. Catsimatidis stopped for a moment mid-stride. “Absolutely,” he exclaimed. “I promise them that I will never raise their taxes. Who do you trust not to raise your taxes?”

A few blocks behind, Mr. Lhota, the former chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, looked more comfortable in a short-sleeved white shirt and carrying a Panama hat. “This is not the first time I’ve been on Staten Island during the Fourth of July,” Mr. Lhota said, taking a quick break from shaking hands. Mr. Lhota used to march in the Travis Parade when he worked for Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

Mr. Lhota received the endorsements of the county Republican Party in May and Representative Michael G. Grimm, Republican of Staten Island, in June, but he was reserved about his prospects in the borough…..

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A Look at the NYC Mayors race from the UK’s Guardian…6/28/13

photo…nyt.com

This piece basically repeats what was said when the Marist and Quinnipiac polls came out this week….

Marist has Anthony Weiner up 5% points over Quinn…..The Q Poll has Quinn up by 2% over Weiner and has him tied with Thompson, who lost to Bloomberg four years ago…..

There  are two story lines here….

Weiner has gained as Quin has faltered……

Thompson has gained…..

It is this Dogs view that a possible run off would involve Quin or Thompson AND Weiner…..

It is also this Dogs view that Anthony Weiner would win in a one on one against either….

The New York City mayoral race is a zoo, and we’re all witnesses to it. Over the past two months, I said Anthony Weiner was stronger than initial polling suggested, Christine Quinn might not make the runoff (held if no candidate reaches 40% in the first round) and Bill Thompson probably would end up in the second round. The polling that came out this week makes me doubt none of these beliefs, yet the race remains very unsettled.

This week Marist and Quinnipiac released polls with slightly different, though, mostly consistent results. Marist had Weiner at 25%, Quinn at 20%, Thompson at 13%, Bill de Blasio at 10% and John Liu at 8%. Quinnipiac put Quinn at 19%, Weiner at 17%, Thompson at 16%, de Blasio at 10% and Liu at 7%. You’ll note that both surveys paint Quinn, Thompson, de blasio and Liu in nearly the same place and any differences are within the margin of error. Weiner’s higher percentage in the Marist poll may, as Mark Blumenthal noted on Wednesday, be because he’s in the news a lot and is benefitting from Marist pushing undecideds harder.

That should not be mistaken for Quinn having any sort of strong support. The Marist poll finds that among those who strongly support a candidate Weiner’s lead over Quinn’s extends to 17pt – 40% to 23%. Quinnipiac has her unfavorable rating among Democrats climbing to 31% – 12pt higher than in May and by far her highest of the year. What is going on?

While many analysts were stuck claiming that Weiner was a product of name recognition, they failed to recognize the same and perhaps to a greater extent was true of Quinn. I wrote in March that Quinn didn’t have a record that some Democrats would like once they got to know it. Anti-Quinn advertisements have been running in New York, and they clearly have had an effect.

Quinn had also been polling particularly strongly among African-Americans and Latinos in prior Marist surveys, which didn’t make much sense. Quinn is seen as a kind of heir apparent to Mayor Michael Bloomberg who polls worst among minorities. The latest Marist poll has her falling back to third among blacks at 19% and second among Latinos at 16%. Those numbers may fall further.

Weiner, meanwhile, has seen his numbers climb. In the ballot test, he’s at his high point in both the Marist and Quinnpiac polls. He’s cut his deficit in a potential runoff against Quinn from 15pt down to 2pt per Marist. Marist has his net favorable among Democrats rising from 0 to +16pt in the last month alone, while Quinnpiac show the percentage of Democrats thinking he should run for mayor up to 52% from 41% last month.

It’s easy to say that Weiner’s rise is because more people are hearing his name, but I don’t think that’s necessarily true.

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Note….

My reasoning is that the Black vote will not be enough for Thompson to beat Weiner  who is a carismic campaigner…..In addition, Weiner will carry the Jewish vote along with East Indians who will be sensitive to his wife ‘s  Huma Abden’s background….Finally, Weiner should somewhat split the black vote (Which tends to NOT be that strong in NYC) in my opinion…..I agree that Chritine Quinn is probably NOT gonna be able to keep with Weiner and Thompson….She’s too closely tied to Bloomberg who is NOT liked very much and who manoeuvred a third term with her assistance….

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Christine Quinn is invisisble in the 2013 Mayors race…

photo…crainsnewyork.com

The Speaker of the NYC Council just came out with a book….

It sold 100 copies the first week….That’s alll…

She has NO friends at the New York Times which has dogged her with a spotlight on her close ties to the New York political establishment and again….Rich Mayor Bloomberg…

With Anthony Weiner stealing ALL the New York City political oxygen…..

Quinn has fallen to the wayside…

…..this week, the New York Timesreported that her memoir sold a mere 100 copies in its first week on shelves. Maybe the stunningly low number has more to do with the publishing industry’s troubles, but I suspect that, simply, Quinn isn’t as famous as people want her to be.

Who are the “people” in question? Well, aside from whatever poor editor was responsible for inking her deal and the campaign staff tasked with raising awareness of their boss and the magazine editors eager to anoint a new, substantive It Girl: the people of New York. Although Quinn has been the frontrunner since long before the campaign actually started, there has been a distinct lack of enthusiasm for her candidacy. Even Mayor Bloomberg, whom Quinn supported steadfastly even when it cost her support among progressives and whose administration she is tacitly promising to continue if elected, reportedly cast about for alternative candidates, all of whom were more famous than Quinn. It is difficult to separate out Quinn’s strength from her weakness. Part of the knock against her is that she is a creature bred of her environment, the backrooms of New York politics—the knowledge of which forms the capstone of her campaign. And yet what Bloomberg seems to believe—and what, perhaps, the massive changes that the city has undergone in his three terms proves, in some measure—is that it takes not a compromised operator but a presence to get things done in New York. Bloomberg is clearly of the opinion that you hire a CEO from the outside, not promote from within the ranks.

New York City exceptionalism has always been a thing. But over the last 12 years, the city itself has gotten shinier, cleaner, richer, more full of tourists. The city’s self-image—at least as I, who have only known it in the Bloomberg era, understand it—has less to do with fuhgeddaboutit scrappiness than it used to. Despite the European tourists and the bikesharing, New York has more in common with mainstream American than it used to, and there is nothing we Americans like more than celebrities. Meanwhile, Anthony Weiner, the one genuine national celebrity in the race, performs a burlesque version of that old-school New Yorkese.

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