Tag Archives: Nate Silver

Nate Silver gets paid for giving the GOPer’s a private session…

Why shouldn’t Nate Silver make some side money telling Republicans what they ALREADY KNOW?

Nate Silver, the ESPN journalist behind the FiveThirtyEight website, gave a presentation on the 2016 battleground map to a group of powerful Republican donors in Manhattan last week.

Silver was paid to give the presentation by the American Opportunity Alliance, a group led by some of the biggest GOP donors in the country, including hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer and the Ricketts family, which owns the Chicago Cubs.

Silver’s closed-door session was part of a two-day confab, held Sept. 7–8 at Le Bernardin Prive, a private dining room inside a New York City restaurant run by celebrity chef Eric Ripert.
Upward of three dozen top donors attended the gathering, along with senior Republican Party officials and strategists. Silver’s presentation on Wednesday afternoon was a highlight of the two-day event, people at the event said.

The statistician summed up GOP nominee Donald Trump’s chances by showing a slide with a colleague’s tweet: “Remember it’s entirely consistent to say 1. Polls have tightened. 2. Clinton still leads. 3. Trump can win. 4. Clinton probably will win.”

He then walked the donors through a battleground map, from Nevada to Florida, providing nonpartisan analysis and projections based on the FiveThirtyEight model.

Attendees said his insights were valuable, though they involved no information that wasn’t already on his website in one form or another….

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Political Roundup for Wednesday, May 18, 2016…Christie and Bridgeate?…RRH Elections

Good morning to all, and happy International Museum Day.

We had an eventful night last night.  Trump won Oregon on the GOP side.  Clinton won Kentucky on the Democratic side.  And Sanders won Oregon on the Democratic side, in a valiant effort to keep the presidential primary process going.

In other notable news… Oregon Democratic Governor won her primary for re-election.  She’ll face physician Bud Pierce (R) in the general election.  2015 Gov candidate and ex-State Ag Commissioner James Comer (R) won the primary in KY-1.  Rand Paul easily won his primary in the Kentucky primary for the Senate race.  He’ll face Democrat Jim Gray–the openly gay mayor of Lexington, who has an interesting bio–in the general election. In OR-5, Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) will face pro-life group head Colm Willis (R). For Oregon SoS, State Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian (D) and Ex-State Rep. Dennis Richardson (R) will face off. State Treasurer Ted Wheeler (D) easily won the race for Mayor of Portland. And for OR-Sen, Republicans bypassed both of their credible sacrificial lambs in favor of a perennial candidate.

Presidential News:

AZ-2016:  Trump is up by 4 points in a head to head against Hillary this November, says PPP.  The 45-41 lead comes despite Trump only taking 68% of GOP voters.  That number will likely go up.

GA-2016:  Trump up 3 in Georgia.  Red states are coming home for Trump!

Trump-2016:  Melania confirms, once and for all, that her husband Donald Trump is not Hitler.

Nate Silver:  Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has eaten a lot of crow for diminishing Trump’s chances of winning.  At various points during the campaign, Silver said Trump had as little as a 2% ora a 5% chance of winning the nomination.  Of course, those numbers aren’t zero percent.  So maybe Silver was right all along, and the unlikely happened.

Chris Christie:  There is very little chance that Trump will name Christie as a VP unless the Bridge Gate scandal is both concluded and resolved favorably for Christie in the next 2 months.  There are more delays, however.

Sanders-Clinton:  We have some rare infighting on the Democratic side, where Sanders supporters are railing at Clinton’s heavy-handed tactics, and Clinton’s surrogates and other Democrats are attacking Sanders.  Hopefully this results in some hurt feelings down the road….

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Princeton Election’s Sam Wong is back…Thinks National Polls ARE worth something…

I don’t agree with Sam….

People do NOT get elected in National elections….

And in his numbers below he has variations….

Oh, and Donald Trump is a aberation  in things…..

The New Year is not a bad time for a fresh start. So please let me acknowledge that back in July, I was too pessimistic about Donald Trump’s chances. Like Harry Enten, I was led astray by his high unfavorables. Six months into the Season of Trump, I think it is time to examine his chances with a more neutral stance.

Two Nates (Silver and Cohn) have come out with essays arguing that we still can’t extract much predictive value from opinion polls. For the detailed kind of analysis they like, this may be true. However, a slightly different approach may reveal more about who is likely to be the eventual Republican nominee. (Spoiler: rhymes with Grump.)….

Obviously, polls are not the entire story of the campaign. Unlike past nominees, Trump does not have the national party behind him. In that respect, he is emblematic of the overall weirdness of this year’s GOP primaries.

Other factors are said to influence the nomination process: candidate experience, campaign finance, and party endorsements. These are described in the New York Times feature Who’s Winning the Presidential Campaign? In my view, these factors are likely to matter under normal conditions – until a political party undergoes a major upheaval. That happens about every 40-50 years (see this excellent XKCD explainer graphic). Trump-as-nominee could fairly be seen as such an upheaval. This is one reason to pay attention not just to data pundits, but also to grizzled old historians. Anyway, if Trump doesn’t make it, look to these factors for an explanation.

>>>

Am I saying that Donald Trump is inevitable? Not quite. However, I do have something to say about another candidate:

Unless Marco Rubio gets the lead out, he is on the edge of serious trouble….

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Nate Silver ain’t doing so good…..

…from  Politico….

By DYLAN BYERS
From USA Today:

Inside ESPN, there has been a lot of talk about the struggles of Nate Silver’s 538 website. It hasn’t even been online for a year yet, but from lack of revenue to lack of traffic to lack of advertising, it is already being billed as a “disaster” by some at the network. [An ESPN spokesman said Friday about 538: “Traffic is ahead of where it was with the New York Times.] More than a couple ESPN suits have been trying to pin these failures on Bill Simmons, I’m told. Their reasoning: Simmons wanted him, he got him, and the site is not delivering. You’re giving Simmons too much freedom, ESPN President John Skipper’s underlings complain. [Silver, you may recall, ran into these problems at the New York Times, another large media entity plagued by bureaucratic problems, partially stemming from a generation gap.]

Source….

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Political Roundup for September 26, 2014…Red Racing Horses…

Red Racing Horses

by: Ryan_in_SEPA

The last Friday in September is here, but the electoral front is not as busy as I would suspect.

Congress
LA-Sen:  Congressman Bill Cassidy has been aggressively courting communities that have strongly backed Senator Mary Landrieu in the past including the Vietnamese community.  Former Congressman Joseph Cao has been aiding Cassidy in his minority outreach efforts.

KS-Sen:  In a sign that anti-establishment tea partiers really care little about conservative politics and mostly want to stick it to the Man (who I happily conduct business for), tea party darling Milton Wolf is meeting with Independent/RINO/Closet Democrat/Strip Club Counsel Greg Orman to discuss endorsing Orman.  Two things are important here… Wolf just hates the Man and Orman might be seriously considering caucusing with the Republicans.

Liberal Base:  Another story stating that the liberal base is souring on President Obama and Democrats.  Basically it has taken the liberal base 6 years to realize Obama is not really some progressive hero, but a corporatist timid neocon.

CO-Sen: Nate Silver has a good breakdown of how things are deteriorating from a polling perspective in Colorado for Senator Mark Udall.  Over the last few weeks Congressman Cory Gardner has opened up a consistent lead over Senator Udall.

September Trends:  RRH friend Sean Trende has a good analysis of the polling trends we are seeing in September and what they mean.

NC-Sen:  Senator Kay Hagan’s husband received stimulus funds through a company he has an ownership interest.  JDC Manufacturing received nearly $390,000 in energy related credits from the Federal government.  It is not clear how her Republican opponent State House Speaker Thom Tilis can exploit this as he voted for North Carolina to take part in the program….

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It’s ON!…Nate Silver and Sam Wang Battle out the 2014 Senate Polling Projections!

images of Sam Wang (l.) and Nate Silver….7thavenueproject.com and salon.com

 

Nate Silver the political polling analysts is an institutional name in American political polling circles….

The guy went from sports to National politics to his own gig over at ESPN where he’s more excited about sports than politics….

Sam Wang is over at Princeton….

For the last few months Silver has been selling the Republicans WILl win the majority of the Senate from Democrats come November….

Sam Wang has NOT….

In the last week or so things have been going Wang’s way as polling has moved in the Democrats direction….

Sooooo!

We now have Nate Silver , and Blog Owner in an open fight with Wang on polling….

I LOVE it!

Not All Forecasting Models are Equal

Nate Silver: “I don’t like to call out other forecasters by name unless I have something positive to say about them — and we think most of the other models out there are pretty great. But one is in so much perceived disagreement with FiveThirtyEight’s that it requires some attention. That’s the model put together by Sam Wang, an associate professor of molecular biology at Princeton.”

“That model is wrong — not necessarily because it shows Democrats ahead (ours barely shows any Republican advantage), but because it substantially underestimates the uncertainty associated with polling averages and thereby overestimates the win probabilities for candidates with small leads in the polls.”

Sam Wang: “If Wang’s prediction of this year’s Senate race turns out to be more accurate than Silver’s, I almost hate to think what might happen. Silver’s head is going to explode or something. In any case, this is far more fun than you normally get from a couple of geeky poll aggregators.”

Politicalwire….

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Harry Reid points out Nate Silver’s strike outs…..

The Senate Majority Leader was asked about the Five Thirty-Eight Jedi Polling number cruncher giving the Democrats only a 40% chance of keeping their majority in the Senate come 2015….

Reid then spoke of FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, the well-known political (and sports) writer whose grim forecast for the Senate Democrats recently created a small furor in Washington. Reid — echoing a Democratic Senate Campaign Committee memo — said Silver has consistently predicted Senate Democrats would perform worse than they have in recent campaign cycles.

“He gave me a 16 percent chance of being reelected, he gave Heidi Heitkamp an 8 percent chance of being reelected, he gave Jon Tester a [34] percent chance of being reelected,” Reid said, referring to Silver’s final 2012 forecast for the New York Times. “So all polls are about like Nate Silver’s predictions: good sometimes, bad most of the time.”

Source….

Note…..

While Nate Silver IS now a media icon….He does get some calls wrong , just like EVERYONE else….

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Five Thirty Eight does Oscar ‘Best Picture Math’……

Nate Silver gets a chance to spread his math crunching numbers thing with a look at the ‘Best Movies’…..

The Internet Movie Database (IMDB) publishes a list of more than four million descriptive keywords, or tags (from “abusive boyfriend” to “Ziegfeld Follies”), associated with its index of films. We analyzed the data for the 503 films that have been nominated for best picture since the beginning of the Academy Awards, in 1928 (we included the 1929 finalists in our tally, though no official nominations were announced that year). Our goal was to identify those themes, motifs, and plots that have been most durable over the years—and those that have cycled into and out of fashion. The numbers tell the tale of the changing whims of the Academy, and the sort of society that it hoped to reflect. Oscar-nominated films involving marriage proposals peaked in the 1950s—and those involving nudity, in the 1970s. Other themes have endured—drunkenness, adultery, and murder have never been out of style at the Oscars. And Hollywood has long had a love-hate relationship with Los Angeles: New York, London, and Paris have been much more common settings for Oscar-nominated movies. Our data is not meant to imply that there is a magic formula for winning an Oscar, but most of the movies nominated in recent years have been neither independent films nor blockbusters. Instead, as Hollywood has sought to re-assert the viability of the movies as both a commercial and an artistic medium, it has tended to honor those films that struck a balance between edginess and accessibility…..

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Nate Silver on the Obama Healthcare Polling…In bad English…

Polls that show Obamacare becoming no more unpopular do NOT imply that there is no electoral downside to Dems from botched rollout (1/2)

in English….

 

“Polls show Obamacare’s popularity has stopped sliding – but that doesn’t imply the Dems are out of potential danger” that?

I’m glad to see that even Nate Silver with OUT an editor has the same english problems I do….

The Dog…

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Nate Silver Wasn’t always right…Obama Campaign….

Buried back in the New York Observer’s Politicker is this piece reminding people that Nate Silver, who is the Jedi Polling Master, cast doubts about a Obama win a year ago….

I actually commented on this fact I believe here at the Dog , though I have no idea WHERE I did ,

I ‘m pretty sure I did because I remember commenting about Silver hedging his bets …

During the waning weeks of the election,New York Times poll wonk Nate Silver served as a totem for many liberals in the face of pundits and pollsters who predicted a victory for Mitt Romney. Mr. Silver’s predictions for the outcome of the election ended up being accurate; however, in an email to supporters this morning, Obama For America campaign manager Jim Messina included a not-so-subtle reminder of a time Mr. Silver was off the mark.

“So many times in this election, this campaign was counted out … Last year, a major American newspaper asked, ‘Is Obama toast?’ As recently as two weeks ago, another ran this headline: ‘Can Obama win?’” Mr. Messina wrote. “Tuesday night, you all answered all of those doubts with a resounding YES WE CAN.”

The first headline Mr. Messina referred to in his email was a piece from the New York Times Magazine written by Mr. Silver almost exactly one year ago. In that piece, Mr. Silver speculated President Barack Obama might not win re-election because voters had “fundamental misgivings” about him and the state of the American economy.

“Obama has gone from a modest favorite to win re-election to, probably, a slight underdog,” Mr. Silver wrote.

Mr. Silver went on to hedge his bet, noting, “Let’s not oversell this. A couple of months of solid jobs reports, or the selection of a poor Republican opponent, would suffice to make him the favorite again.”

 

May I remind people that Nate Silver is NOT a pollster….

He just analysis on OTHER people’s polls…

He should keep at that and NOT make predictions a year out, eh?

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Connecticut and North Dakota Senate races handicapped by Nate Silver….

Gaming Senate Fights in Connecticut and North Dakota

By NATE SILVER

‘Tis the season for retirements from the United States Senate.

Less than a week after the Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas announced that she would not seek re-election in 2012, a Democrat, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, who has represented the state since 1987, said today that he wouldn’t seek a new term either. A third senator, Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman, will announce his plans tomorrow, but The New York Times and other outlets are reporting that he is likely to retire as well.

My focus, naturally, is in figuring out who their successors might be. Wediscussed Hutchison’s case last week, so let’s look at North Dakota and Connecticut now.

Getting the lay of the land in an open race for a United States Senate seat is not terribly complicated. We essentially want to look at three factors: the national partisan environment, the local partisan environment, and the quality of the potential candidates.

Any guess as to what the national environment will look like in November 2012 would be highly speculative. Yes, Barack Obama’s approval ratings are up slightly. But historically, there has been almost no correlation between what a President’s standing looks like at this stage in the political cycle, and what it will look like the following November. Almost no pollsters, meanwhile (other than Rasmussen Reports, which has some kinks to work out) have yet issued generic ballot polls.

We can perhaps come to some conclusions, however, about factors more specific to North Dakota and Connecticut, respectively.

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Nate Silver thinks the Democratic wave was small and gone……

Two weeks ago there was good weekend for the Democrats…

Things picked up in several races and combined with the campaigning that Obama and Biden where doing……Things looked very good indeed for the Democrat’s…..

But that was two weeks ago….

The steady drumbeat of the pollsters*….

Nearly all of them….

Except Scott Elliot over @ Election Projection has been …the GOP House numbers ‘gets’ COULD BE over 30 seats…..

The Democrats lose the House after 29 seats….

I’m sticking with my Democrats by a few seats….

But I could be wrong…

But….

I hope I’m right……

It has become fashionable to speak of a Democratic comeback, but we’re not really seeing one in our forecasting models. Certainly there are some individual races — particularly on the East and West Coasts, as well as somegubernatorial contests outside these regions — that look better for Democrats than they did a few weeks ago. But we’re showing Republicans gaining ground where they need to gain it to maintain decent chances of taking over the Senate. We also show improvement for them in the House forecast this week.

Our model now estimates that the Republicans have a 72 percent chance of taking over the House, up from 67 percent last week. Moreover, they have nearly even odds of a achieving a net gain of 50 seats; their average gain in a typical simulation run was between 47 and 48 seats. However, the playing field remains very broad and considerably larger are possible, as are considerably smaller ones.

Republican gains this week are mostly the result of factors at the local level; the national environment is roughly stable. The expert forecasters whose judgment we incorporate into the model continue to revise their characterizations of races, and in almost all cases, the changes work toward the benefit of Republicans. Cook Political, for instance, in a break from its usual convention of not classifying seats held by incumbents as worse than toss-ups, this week decided to classify 10 seats currently held by Democratic incumbents, including the seat held by Alan Grayson in Florida’s 8th Congressional District, as leaning toward the Republicans. Read more…

* The move by several pollester’s is in reaction to Charlie Cook’s decesion to move 10 Democratic seats aribitrally from Toss Ups to Lean Republican…..Cook just did on his own with no evidence from polling……

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Research 2000 Polling……DailyKos Questions…..

More on the DailyKos firing of Research 2000 Polling after Nate Silver did his thing on them…..

This from desmoinesdem, over @MyDD……….

Markos Moulitsas fired Research 2000 as the pollster retained by Daily Kos a few weeks ago after R2K fared poorly in “pollster ratings” compiled by FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver. At the time I wondered whether Markos reacted a bit harshly, since Silver himself admitted, “The absolute difference in the pollster ratings is not very great.” In addition, some polling experts had raised questions about Silver’s rating system (see also here).

Today Markos published a remarkable analysis of “problems in plain sight” with Research 2000’s polling. Three researchers uncovered “extreme anomalies” in certain results and concluded, “We do not know exactly how the weekly R2K results were created, but we are confident they could not accurately describe random polls.” You should click over and read the whole thing, but here are the anomalies in question:

1. A large set of number pairs which should be independent of each other in detail, yet almost always are either both even or both odd.

2. A set of polls on separate groups which track each other far too closely, given the statistical uncertainties.

3. The collection of week-to-week changes, in which one particular small change (zero) occurs far too rarely. This test is particularly valuable because the reports exhibit a property known to show up when people try to make up random sequences.

Markos has renounced “any post we’ve written based exclusively on Research 2000 polling” and asked polling sites to “remove any Research 2000 polls commissioned by us from their databases.”

Update….DailyKos is sueing Research2000 on its polling used by DailyKos in the past……….

Man…That thing is gettin heavy…….

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Nate Silver on Sarah Palin's Primary Strategy for 2012….

From Nate Silver over @ FiveThirtyEight.

If Sarah Palin runs for the Republican nomination in 2012 — and I’ve been on record for some time as predicting that she will — what are likely to be her best and worst states? And how do these strengths and weaknesses square with the Republican primary calendar? And what about the other likely candidates?

The first, very, very important thing to notice is that the Republican primary calendar will be different in 2012 than it was two years ago. Although this could change as states jockey for position and rules are amended, for the time being the Republicans have divided the states into five groupings as seen below:


The first states to vote are the traditional early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. These states are shown in light blue. Note that this list does notinclude Florida and Michigan, which jumped in the queue to try to vote early in 2008 — although who knows whether they’ll be in a more cooperative mood this time around when push comes to shove.

Next to vote are the orange states, which are grouped together by virtue of their small populations. This includes 14 states and several territories, the largest grouping of which is on the prairies and the Western frontier, although there are also several New England states. Notably, no Southern states vote in this group — the Republican calender definitely de-emphasizes the South.

There’s More…

I keep telling you people…..it’s not so far fetched……

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Aftermath……Coakley loses…..Obama takes it on the Chin….and the reality vs the perception……

Last night one thing actually happened….Martha Coakley a Democrat….lost the Massachusetts Special Election for the vacated Senate seat to Scott Brown, a Republican……

The fact is as Nate Silver over at FiveThirtySeven relates……
Overall, we have a 31-point swing in the vote to explain: from Barack Obama’s roughly 26-point victory in November 2008, to Martha Coakley’s roughly 5-point loss today.

At a bare minimum, 10 of those points must be assigned to the national environment.Generic ballot polling suggests that the Democrats’ position has worsened by a net of 10 points since November 2008, from winning the House popular vote by 10 points in 2008 to being dead even with Republicans today.

Also at a bare minimum, 11 points of blame should be assigned to Coakley. That represents the difference between the 58 percent of vote that she received at her high-water mark in the polls to the 47 percent she received on Election Day. A fairly large number of voters, it appears, actually turned away from Coakley; it was not just a matter of undecided ones turning toward Brown.

That leaves us with 10 more points of blame to assign; let’s just dole those out as evenly as possible, giving 3 more points to Coakley, 3 more points to the national environment, and 4 to Massachusetts-specific special contingencies — it gets the extra point because it hadn’t received any yet.

That would make the final score: national environment 13, Coakley 14, special circumstances 4.

If you follow through on the math, this would suggest that Coakley would have won by about 8 points, rather than losing by 5, had the national environment not deteriorated so significantly for Democrats. It suggests that the Democrats would have won by 9 points, rather than losing by 5, had the candidate been someone other than Coakley. And it suggests that the race would have been a 1-point loss (that is, basically too close to call), rather than a 5-point loss, even if Coakley had run such a bad campaign and even if the national environment had deteriorated as much as it has, but had there not been the unusual circumstances associated with this particular election.

Folks….. I think Silver nails the analytical side of yesterday…..

Bad candidate, bad economic enviroment, bad campaign = one loss……..

Now we deal with the media and perceptions….

President Obama went to campaign for Coakley last Sunday….even the Dog suggested that….but it was too little…. too late (remember NJ?)……but the media and the politicians are at the point….they see bloods in the water…

….they are viewing last night not as a bad run, and a bad economic event…..but as referendum on Healthcare and the President….of which in reality it is neither….

Martha Coakley pissed her voters off….as an P1 commenter pointed out yesterday…no Mass AG has won election to higher offiice….as Silver pointed our…even democratic voters…in a democratic town!

Now I checked the papers and myself here….the Dog joined the crowd last night in pointing out that the perspective is going to point President Barack Obama…..I’m just as guilty as everyone else in jumping to perseptions…I admit it….

The second story we get today ….to pile on the President, is that the nominee for TSA Head, Erroll Southers is withdrawing his name….Oops!….the President takes another hit!

Then I go further down the page, and I see another punch thrown at the Obama adminbstration…..A complaint that the increase in the minimum wage is the reason for higher unemployment?

It’s gonna go on like this for a while…..

This the aniversity of President Obama taking his oath of office……

It is also the day after a senate race in one state is going to be tied to the ENTIRE DEMOCRATIC AGENDA….whether it deserves to …..or not…..

The Dog suggests that if President Obama and the democratic party wants to continue (and they will ) with any chance of suscess..they better sit down with the leader of their party and point out that he cannot afford to stay above the fry any longer…..even if it’s to work to support and get better candidates (a prime example is Kirsten Gillibrand in NY…let Ford primary her…let the voters pick the stronger candidate… less the same thing happen in New York also )

The race was the race…it’s over …the Democrat lost…the perscption war now begins with the GOP embolden to continue attacking everything and anything with Obama’s name on it…and all things Democratic…..

The economy has given birth to pent-up anger…..bad candidates and no help from the leader of the party may doom this country to a halt in eventing political and a JimmY carter one term wonder Presidency……

Just for the record…even with loss…the Democrats maintain their majority in BOTH HOUSES…….


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The Rasmussen Polling outfit gets grief……..

I get the Rasmussen poll everyday here at the Dog…..Merlin our resident magicaian…does also….but it seems that a whole lot of people think the Ras polls are slanted away from the dem’s and Obama in particular because the methods used …….

While the Ras poll has done pretty good in its election calls in the past….people are still throwing bricks at them…..here’s a comparison of the Ras Polls numbers for President Obama and a few others……link….

As you can see there is a vast difference in the numbers and the lines…….

The Rasmussen people are going to come under increasing pressure to explain their differences to enraged democrats and media types…….

Here’s the original piece ripping them from Politico……

Here’s Nate Silver over at FiveThirtySeven…….

Hummmm?……..I wonder how he gets such different numbers?

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