Last night one thing actually happened….Martha Coakley a Democrat….lost the Massachusetts Special Election for the vacated Senate seat to Scott Brown, a Republican……
The fact is as Nate Silver over at FiveThirtySeven relates……
Overall, we have a 31-point swing in the vote to explain: from Barack Obama’s roughly 26-point victory in November 2008, to Martha Coakley’s roughly 5-point loss today.
At a bare minimum, 10 of those points must be assigned to the national environment.Generic ballot polling suggests that the Democrats’ position has worsened by a net of 10 points since November 2008, from winning the House popular vote by 10 points in 2008 to being dead even with Republicans today.
Also at a bare minimum, 11 points of blame should be assigned to Coakley. That represents the difference between the 58 percent of vote that she received at her high-water mark in the polls to the 47 percent she received on Election Day. A fairly large number of voters, it appears, actually turned away from Coakley; it was not just a matter of undecided ones turning toward Brown.
That leaves us with 10 more points of blame to assign; let’s just dole those out as evenly as possible, giving 3 more points to Coakley, 3 more points to the national environment, and 4 to Massachusetts-specific special contingencies — it gets the extra point because it hadn’t received any yet.
That would make the final score: national environment 13, Coakley 14, special circumstances 4.
If you follow through on the math, this would suggest that Coakley would have won by about 8 points, rather than losing by 5, had the national environment not deteriorated so significantly for Democrats. It suggests that the Democrats would have won by 9 points, rather than losing by 5, had the candidate been someone other than Coakley. And it suggests that the race would have been a 1-point loss (that is, basically too close to call), rather than a 5-point loss, even if Coakley had run such a bad campaign and even if the national environment had deteriorated as much as it has, but had there not been the unusual circumstances associated with this particular election.
Folks….. I think Silver nails the analytical side of yesterday…..
Bad candidate, bad economic enviroment, bad campaign = one loss……..
Now we deal with the media and perceptions….
President Obama went to campaign for Coakley last Sunday….even the Dog suggested that….but it was too little…. too late (remember NJ?)……but the media and the politicians are at the point….they see bloods in the water…
….they are viewing last night not as a bad run, and a bad economic event…..but as referendum on Healthcare and the President….of which in reality it is neither….
Martha Coakley pissed her voters off….as an P1 commenter pointed out yesterday…no Mass AG has won election to higher offiice….as Silver pointed our…even democratic voters…in a democratic town!
Now I checked the papers and myself here….the Dog joined the crowd last night in pointing out that the perspective is going to point President Barack Obama…..I’m just as guilty as everyone else in jumping to perseptions…I admit it….
The second story we get today ….to pile on the President, is that the nominee for TSA Head, Erroll Southers is withdrawing his name….Oops!….the President takes another hit!
Then I go further down the page, and I see another punch thrown at the Obama adminbstration…..A complaint that the increase in the minimum wage is the reason for higher unemployment?
It’s gonna go on like this for a while…..
This the aniversity of President Obama taking his oath of office……
It is also the day after a senate race in one state is going to be tied to the ENTIRE DEMOCRATIC AGENDA….whether it deserves to …..or not…..
The Dog suggests that if President Obama and the democratic party wants to continue (and they will ) with any chance of suscess..they better sit down with the leader of their party and point out that he cannot afford to stay above the fry any longer…..even if it’s to work to support and get better candidates (a prime example is Kirsten Gillibrand in NY…let Ford primary her…let the voters pick the stronger candidate… less the same thing happen in New York also )
The race was the race…it’s over …the Democrat lost…the perscption war now begins with the GOP embolden to continue attacking everything and anything with Obama’s name on it…and all things Democratic…..
The economy has given birth to pent-up anger…..bad candidates and no help from the leader of the party may doom this country to a halt in eventing political and a JimmY carter one term wonder Presidency……
Just for the record…even with loss…the Democrats maintain their majority in BOTH HOUSES…….
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