The Texas GOP Senator has captured the Iowa win by being Hardest rightwingnut in the 2016 Presidential field….
That worked in Iowa to get him a win against Donald Trump who most Conservtive insiders don’t consider part of their club….
But as the GOP race moves on?
The voters of the party includes less very conservative’s and more moderate and even liberal GOPer’s….And come the general election ?…Any GOP nomiee will HAVE to find their way back (in PERCEPTION at least) to the political middle…
And THAT does NOT bode well for Cruz , who seems to have already fallen behind Marco Rubio in the polling….
This theory is from Nate Cohn over @ The Upshot at the NY Times and it seems lpauible to me and establishment GOPer’s (Who Hate Cruz) hope he’s right….
Ted Cruz kept his hopes alive with a come-from-behind victory in the Iowa caucuses this week. But the way he won raises serious questions about his chances later on.
He won Iowa for one reason: He excelled among people who described themselves as “very conservative.” They voted for him by a big margin; he won 44 percent of them to Donald Trump’s 21 percent, according to exit polls. He lost every other ideological category, and often by a lot.
The national Republican primary electorate is far more moderate than Iowa’s, so Mr. Cruz will need to attract a far broader coalition. The history of recent conservative Iowa winners — like Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee — offers plenty of reasons to wonder whether he can count on doing so.
In entrance and exit polls from 2008 and 2012, there was no primary state where the G.O.P. electorate was as conservative as it was in Iowa. Only Nevada had a similar ideological composition.
It is not a coincidence that Iowa and Nevada stand alone with so many “very conservative” voters and so few “moderates.” They’re both low-turnout caucuses, which tend to attract the most committed Republican and conservative activists. The Iowa electorate might look a lot more like the one in neighboring Wisconsin if it adopted a primary system.
As it is, “very conservative” voters outnumbered the combined total of self-described “moderate” and “liberal” voters by a 32-point margin in Iowa in 2012 — but by no more than 15 points in any primary state (Louisiana). Even in primary states with well-justified conservative reputations, like Texas or Alabama, “very conservative” voters outnumbered the total of self-described moderates and liberals only by a four-point margin. In the north, “moderate” and “liberal” usually outnumber “very conservative” voters, and often by a wide margin….
For those who think ALL Republicans are JUST Conservative right wing nuts?
The number of moderate and liberal GOPer’s have increased according to a gallup poll….
The percentage of Republicans identifying as conservative on both dimensions has dropped 15 percentage points since 2012, largely offset by an increase in the percentage who identify as moderate or liberal on both dimensions. Still, the current ideological positioning of Republicans is not unprecedented; the proportion of social and economic conservatives was as low or lower from 2001 through 2005…..Share on Facebook