DE Treasurer GOP: This Primary features the candidacies of Hotel Chain CEO Ken Simpler and 2012 Lieutenant Governor nominee Sher Valenzuela. Simpler comes from the more establishment wing of the party, while Valenzuela comes from the more Conservative, grassroots wing. Predictably, the campaign has turned nasty in recent weeks. Given the fact that the establishment is more organized and powerful in Delaware than in most states and the fact that Simpler has more campaign organization and support on his side, he likely has the advantage going into Tuesday’s voting. Prediction: Simpler 52-48 over Valenzuela.
MA Governor DEM: This Primary features the candidacies of former Medicare/Medicaid Administrator Don Berwick, Attorney General and 2010 US Senate nominee Martha Coakley, and State Treasurer Steve Grossman. Berwick is the darling of grassroots Liberals, while Grossman is favoured by more establishment types. That said, neither one has caught on with Primary voters, and Coakley has registered a consistent lead. Coakley should be favoured Tuesday, though, knowing her, an upset cannot be entirely ruled out. Prediction: Coakley 43-32-25 over Grossman and Berwick.
MA Lieutenant Governor DEM: This race pits 2013 Presidential Inauguration Committee Co-Chairman Steve Kerrigan against Non-Profit Group CEO and Clinton White House Aide Mike Lake and Cambridge City Councillor Leland Cheung. This race seems to have turned into an old guard/new guard proxy war between the more business-oriented Clintonite Lake and Kerrigan, the more modern, Progressive, and forwardly-thinking of the two. Cheung has essentially been reduced to a third wheel, though not so much so that he can’t play spoiler in a race as close as this one is turning out to be. While the state and country may be moving away from Obama’s Progressive vision of the world, the state party has drifted more in that direction in the past decade, an ideological drift which has led to the nomination and election of the likes of Deval Patrick to the Governorship and Elizabeth Warren & Ed Markey to the Senate. With that in mind, Kerrigan holds a small advantage going into Tuesday. Prediction: Kerrigan 49-45-6 over Lake and Cheung.
MA Treasurer DEM: This race pits State Representative Tom Conroy against State Senator Barry Finegold and former Brookline Selectwoman Deb Goldberg. Conroy seems to have coalesced establishment support behind his run, leaving his two opponents in the dust. He should be a solid favourite in Tuesday’s Primary. Prediction: Conroy 63-31-6 over Finegold and Goldberg.
MA-6 DEM: Incumbent Congressman John Tierney faces the fight for his political life in the form of Iraq War Veteran Seth Moulton and Attorney Marisa DeFranco. Tierney has faced numerous ethical issues in the past few years; Issues which nearly cost him re-election in 2012. Moulton his raised decent sums and has polled well against Tierney in recent polls. While DeFranco has gained not much traction, the race is such that she can play spoiler by taking Liberal votes from Tierney in a close race, as this one is turning out to be. As of right now, there is a decent chance that Moulton pulls off an upset. Prediction: Moulton 39-35-19 over Tierney and DeFranco, with other candidates splitting the remaining 7%.
MA-9 GOP: The race to take on highly vulnerable Democratic incumbent Bill Keating features the candidacies of Biologist and Tea Partier Mark Alliegro, former State Industrial Accidents Commissioner and former Reagan White House Aide John Chapman, and former Pembroke Selectman Vincent Cogliano Jr. Like in the Democratic Lieutenant Governor Primary, this race represents a proxy war between old guard and new guard, Conservative and more Conservative choices–Chapman representing the old guard Conservatives and Alliegro/Cogliano representing more Conservative, grassroots-oriented options. Given the split on the latter side, coupled with his somewhat superior name recognition and resources, Chapman has the edge going into Tuesday night. Prediction: Chapman 38-33-23 over Cogliano and Alliegro, with 4th wheel Dan Shores taking in the remaining 6%.
NH Senator GOP: The race to take on vulnerable Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen features the candidacies of former Massachusetts US Senator Scott Brown, former US Senator and 2000 Presidential candidate Bob Smith, and former State Senator Jim Rubens. As New Hampshire shares media markets with Massachusetts, Scott Brown is universally known throughout the state, and has outraised each of his opponents. With the support of state and national Republicans, Brown should clean up in Tuesday’s Primary, while Smith’s name recognition should guarantee him second place. Prediction: Brown 57-32-11 over Smith and Rubens.
NH Governor GOP: The main contenders in this Primary are businessman Walt Havenstein and Conservative activist and 2012 state director for the Newt Gingrich Presidential campaign Andrew Hemingway. Havenstein has consolidated establishment support and financing, and has received the endorsement of Mitt Romney, the victor of the states’ 2012 Presidential Primary. Hemingway has the support of grassroots activists, and one might assume he has the tacit, if not vocal, support of Newt Gingrich, the man whose campaign Hemingway worked for in 2012. Given that the establishment wields more influence in NH Primaries than they do in most other states, Havenstein has a sturdy edge going into Tuesday. Prediction: Havenstein 54-43 over Hemingway, with other candidates dividing the remaining 3%.
NH-1 GOP: This Primary pits former Congressman Frank Guinta against former UNH Business School Dean Dan Innis. Guinta has consolidated establishment support, raised decent sums of money, and has superior name recognition over Innis. Guinta is heavily favoured to win. Prediction: Guinta 61-39 over Innis.
NH-2 GOP: This free-for-all features the candidacies of State Representative Marilinda Garcia, former state legislators Gary Lambert and Jim Lawrence, and former Concord City Councillor Mike Little. Garcia and Lambert have positioned themselves as the main contenders in this race. Garcia is seen as the more Conservative choice, while Lambert holds down the more establishment mantle. Garcia had started out the race nominally ahead, but has since failed to impresson the stump and in fundraising. Lambert probably holds a narrow edge here, but the race is just fluid enough to render an upset possible. Prediction: Lambert 31-27-24-18 over Garcia, Lawrence, and Little.
NY Governor-Dem: Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo is being challeged by 10 people….The only one that has garnered any attention is Zephy Teachout , a Fordom Law School Associate Professor who has the media buzzing….Progressives are NOT happy with Cuomo and have flocked to Teachout…It doesn’t really matter….Prediction….Cuomo clearly over the field.
LT Gov:-Dem As with the Governor spot ….We have a Columbia Law School professor running for office in Tim Wu, who is running with Teachout as a Progressive ….Cuomo’s choice is Kathy Hochul from upstate and is seen by Progressives as to far to the right…There are gonna be some New York Downstaters who vote for Wu as a Progressive and as a anti Cuomo vote….In the last days before the primary she has had endorsement from the entire Cuomo ticket…Prediction…With this she’ll probably win even if she IS from a more conservative Democratic party Upstate….
State Comptroler: Dem Tom DiNapoli has had the job for a while. He’s from Nassau County on Long Island and has been silently in charge of the state’s Multi Billion Dollar retirement fund ….Not one of Gov Cuomo’s favorite people…..Prediction DeNapoli
State Atty Gen-Dem: Attorney General Eric Schneiderman is way up in the polls….He like the preceding Democrats before him….Andrew Cuomo and Eliot Spitzer have moved the New York State Attorney General’s office into a nationally recognizable position ….Ther is no serious challenge against him…He won the primary for the office over Cuomo’s hand picked choice Nassau County DA, Kathreeen Rice…Rice will be running for a House seat….Oh, Another one of Cuomo’s least like people also….Prediction….Schneiderman
Here’s SE’ on New York….
NY Governor DEM: Incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo faces Primary opposition from Law School Professor Zephyr Teachout and Comedian Randy Credico. Cuomo has faced significant troubles from teacher’s unions during his tenure, and Teachout is hoping to capitalize on this. As per his usual, Credico’s only in it for the laffs. That said, polls and fundraising seem to be indicating a Cuomo romp on Tuesday. Cuomo will easily win, though he’ll have to contend with an antagonistic base as he goes into a difficult re-election bid. Prediction: Cuomo 65-32-3 over Teachout and Credico.
NY Lieutenant Governor DEM: Former Congresswoman and Cuomo pick Kathy Hochul faces an unexpectedly stiff challenge from Law School Professor Tim Wu. Hochul was considered by the Liberal grassroots to be a weak pick for the #2 slot given her relative Conservatism as a Congresswoman and the fact that, while winning a 2011 Special Election with some ease, she was turfed in 2012, which was a Democratic year statewide and nationally. She has struggled to successfully portray herself as a Progressive, though has recently received a boost in the form of an endorsement from NYC Mayor Bill DeBlasio. While Cuomo has better established himself to the people and will likely win, Hochul will probably only scrape by on the backs of the most ardent Cuomo supporters who are willing to look past his pick’s issues. Prediction: Hochul 52-48 over Wu.
RI Governor GOP: This race pits Cranston Mayor Allan Fung against Moderate Party Founder Ken Block. Polling has shown a somewhat close race, though Fund has superior name recognition, fundraising network, and support amongst all major ideological groups within the Republican Party. Fung is the favourite going into Tuesday. Prediction: Fung 63-37 over Block.
RI Governor DEM: This free-for-all pits State Treasurer Gina Raimondo against former Deputy Assistant US Secretary of Education Clay Pell, Providence Mayor Angel Taveras, and Restoration Contractor and prolific self-funder Todd Giroux. Polls have shown Raimondo with a consistent lead, with Pell and Taveras slugging it out for second place. Giroux’s campaign hasn’t gone anywhere, though his presence likely hurts fellow self-funding businessman Pell in his efforts to score an upset in this Primary. Raimondo has a near-insurmountable edge in the closing stretch of this campaign. Prediction: Raimondo 37-28-24-11 over Pell, Taveras, and Giroux.
RI Lieutenant Governor DEM: This Primary features the candidacies of State Representative Frank Ferri, Cumberland Mayor Dan McKee, and Secretary of State Ralph Mollis. Mollis has an advantage of name recognition, though he has been ensnared by several major scandals and heady accusations as of late. McKee has made his best effort to capitalize on this and it would seem has been successful in that effort. McKee holds a narrow, yet noticeable edge going into Tuesday. Prediction: McKee 43-36-21 over Mollis and Ferri.
RI Treasurer DEM: This Primary pits former State Treasurer and 2010 Gubernatorial nominee Frank Caprio against Investment Fund Manager Seth Magaziner. Caprio holds an insurmountable edge going into Tuesday, it is possible that Magaziner could pull a higher-than-expected vote total given Caprio’s many stylistic issues, which was a major factor in his ultimately blowing the 2010 Governor’s race against Republican John Robitalle and Independent and eventual victor Lincoln Chafee. Prediction: Caprio 59-41 over Magaziner.
RI-1 DEM: Incumbent Democrat David Cicilline faces a Primary challenge from Iraq War Veteran Matt Fecteau. Cicilline has for several years been engulfed in ethics scandals and scandals surrounding alleged mismanagement of government funds while he was Mayor of Providence. In spite of that, he won his 2010 Primary based upon his name recognition and then beat back two formidable Republican opponents in succeeding election cycles. This time, it appears Cicilline’s luck may be about to run out, as he faces his most formidable, if unexpected, challenge yet. Prediction: Fecteau 53-47 over Cicilline.
These are the last Primaries of the 2014 election cycle….
New York State done by the Dog and SE….