I can say with certainty ….
The Republican’s are gonna keep their majority in the House…
It maybe smaller ……But it’s theirs….
Kyle Kondik, House Editor September 20th, 2012 @ Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball…..
After shuffling many of our House ratings, it’s pretty obvious that the race for the House remains locked in a battle of trench warfare, with little obvious movement on either side. Given that the Republicans start from a position of great strength — Democrats need to net 25 seats to take control of the House — the GOP remains a heavy favorite to hold the lower chamber of Congress.
Our new ratings show 195 safe seats for the Republicans and 156 safe seats for the Democrats, with 14 likely Republican seats and 13 likely Democratic seats. That leaves 23 leaning Republican and 20 leaning Democratic with 14 toss-ups. Only 57 of 435 seats — 13% — are in the leaning or toss-up categories.
Our last full House update projected a Democratic gain of six seats; this time, we’re projecting a Democratic gain of four seats. Given the nature of the House — where many races are likely to be close to the end and where reliable polling is relatively scant, compared to Senate or gubernatorial races — our projections are bound to change, perhaps dramatically, in the last seven weeks before the election. But the center of gravity in this race — two sides locked in a close contest — is clear, and it favors the Republicans…..