Tag Archives: Larry Sabado Polling

Larry Sabato on the House races…..

I can say with certainty ….

The Republican’s are gonna keep their majority in the House…

It maybe smaller ……But it’s theirs….

Kyle Kondik, House Editor September 20th, 2012 @ Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball…..

After shuffling many of our House ratings, it’s pretty obvious that the race for the House remains locked in a battle of trench warfare, with little obvious movement on either side. Given that the Republicans start from a position of great strength — Democrats need to net 25 seats to take control of the House — the GOP remains a heavy favorite to hold the lower chamber of Congress.

Our new ratings show 195 safe seats for the Republicans and 156 safe seats for the Democrats, with 14 likely Republican seats and 13 likely Democratic seats. That leaves 23 leaning Republican and 20 leaning Democratic with 14 toss-ups. Only 57 of 435 seats — 13% — are in the leaning or toss-up categories.

Our last full House update projected a Democratic gain of six seats; this time, we’re projecting a Democratic gain of four seats. Given the nature of the House — where many races are likely to be close to the end and where reliable polling is relatively scant, compared to Senate or gubernatorial races — our projections are bound to change, perhaps dramatically, in the last seven weeks before the election. But the center of gravity in this race — two sides locked in a close contest — is clear, and it favors the Republicans…..

More…..

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Larry Sabato’s Senate Rankings (Updated August 14th): Akin, Thompson favored to win…Daniel…

Afternoon People
Here are the newest Senate Race Rankings from Larry Sabato:
State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Third party Party Rating
AZ Jon Kyl
(Retiring)
– Rep. Jeff Flake
– Businessman Wil Cardon
– Ex-Youngstown Mayor Bryan Hackbarth
– Radio host Clair Van Steenwyk
– Ex-U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona
– Psychiatrist David Ruben
Leans R
CA Dianne Feinstein
(Running)
– 2010 CA-11 candidate Elizabeth Emken Safe D
CT Joe Lieberman
(Retiring)
– Rep. Chris Murphy – 2010 Sen. Nominee Linda McMahon Likely D
DE Tom Carper
(Running)
– Businessman Kevin Wade Safe D
FL Bill Nelson
(Running)
– Rep. Connie Mack Toss-up
HI Daniel Akaka
(Retiring)
– Rep. Mazie Hirono – Ex-Gov. Linda Lingle Leans D
IN Richard Lugar
(Lost primary)
– Treasurer Richard Mourdock – Rep. Joe Donnelly Leans R
MA Scott Brown
(Running)
– Consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren Toss-up
MD Ben Cardin
(Running)
– Ex-Secret Service agent Daniel Bongino Safe D
ME Olympia Snowe
(Retiring)
– Sec. of State Charlie Summers – State Sen. Cynthia Dill – Ex-Gov. Angus King
– Libertarian Andrew Ian Dodge
Likely I/D
MI Debbie Stabenow
(Running)
– Ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra Likely D
MN Amy Klobuchar
(Running)
– State Rep. Kurt Bills Safe D
MO Claire McCaskill
(Running)
– Rep. Todd Akin Leans R
MS Roger Wicker
(Running)
– Veteran and former minister Albert N. Gore Safe R
MT Jon Tester
(Running)
– Rep. Denny Rehberg Toss-up
ND Kent Conrad
(Retiring)
– Ex-AG Heidi Heitkamp – Rep. Rick Berg Leans R
NE Ben Nelson
(Retiring)
– Ex-Sen. Bob Kerrey – State Sen. Deb Fischer Likely R
NJ Bob Menendez
(Running)
– State Sen. Joe Kyrillos Likely D
NM Jeff Bingaman
(Retiring)
– Rep. Martin Heinrich – Ex-Rep. Heather Wilson Leans D
NV Dean Heller
(Running)
– Rep. Shelley Berkley Leans R
NY Kirsten Gillibrand 
(Running)
– Attorney Wendy Long Safe D
OH Sherrod Brown
(Running)
– Treasurer Josh Mandel Leans D
PA Bob Casey
(Running)
– Former coal company owner Tom Smith – Libertarian Rayburn Smith Likely D
RI Sheldon Whitehouse
(Running)
– Businessman Barry Hinckley Safe D
TN Bob Corker
(Running)
– Flooring installer Mark Clayton Safe R
TX Kay Bailey Hutchison
(Retiring)
– Ex-TX Solicitor General Ted Cruz – Ex-state Rep. Paul Sadler Safe R
UT Orrin Hatch
(Running)
-Ex-State Sen. Minority Leader Scott Howell Safe R
VA Jim Webb
(Retiring)
– Ex-Gov. Tim Kaine – Ex-Sen. George Allen Toss-up
VT Bernie Sanders
(Running)
– Ex-MA State Rep. John MacGovern Safe I/D
WA Maria Cantwell 
(Running)
– State Sen. Michael Baumgartner Safe D
WI Herb Kohl 
(Retiring)
– Rep. Tammy Baldwin – Ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson Leans R
WV Joe Manchin
(Running)
– 2010 nominee John Raese Safe D
WY John Barrasso
(Running)
Ex-Army paratrooper Thomas Bleming Safe
As you can see Sabato has now ranked Missouri, North Dakota and Wisconsin as “Lean Republican”, Nebraska as Likely Republican and Virginia, Florida & Montana as Toss Ups. Scott Brown’s Seat in Massachusetts is also ranked as a Toss Up Race.
Daniel G.
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Larry Sabato does Battle ground states Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina

President Obama carried ALL three last time…

He needs to get 2 for 3 this time….

I think he could even even repeat all three if thing break right for him come November 6….

from Larry Sabato’s Cyrstal Ball Blog….

Our Political Map of the United States was such a big hit that we’ve decided to drill a little bit deeper by taking the same political map concept — sizing states by their population — to the county and city level. This week, the Crystal Ball examines the political geography of three presidential battlegrounds in 2012: Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina. Crystal Ball team members Geoffrey Skelley and Kyle Kondik, natives of Virginia and Ohio, respectively, and former Crystal Ball staffer Isaac Wood of North Carolina take a look at the key regions to watch in their native states.
– The Editors

More here…

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Daniel….Larry J. Sabato Updated Rating Changes; Part 1: The House Ratings

Larry J. Sabato Updated Rating Changes; Part 1: The House Ratings

Hello Dog Pound!

Larry J. Sabato CHANGED a massive BUNCH of House Races today AND almost all are favouring the Republican Candidates.

House Rating Changes by Isaac Wood:

AZ-1 (Kirkpatrick – D)

Toss-Up to Lean Republican

CO-4 (Markey – D)

Toss-Up to Lean Republican

FL-24 (Kosmas – D)

Toss-Up to Lean Republican

MI-1 (Open)

Toss-Up to Lean Republican

PA-3 (Dahlkemper – D)

Toss-Up to Lean Republican

PA-8 (Patrick Murphy – D)

Toss-Up to Lean Republican

PA-11 (Kanjorski-D)

Toss-Up to Lean Republican

TX-17 (Edwards-D)

Toss-Up to Lean Republican

VA-2 (Nye-D)

Toss-Up to Lean Republican

VA-5 (Perriello-D)

Toss-Up to Lean Republican

HI-1 (Djou-R)

Lean Democrat to Toss-Up

AZ-5 (Mitchell-D)

Lean Democrat to Toss-Up

FL-22 (Klein-D)

Lean Democrat to Toss-Up

GA-8 (Marshall-D)

Lean Democrat to Toss-Up

NY-19 (Hall-D)

Lean Democrat to Toss-Up

CT-4 (Himes-D)

Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat

GA-2 (Bishop-D)

Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat

IA-2 (Loebsack-D)

Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat

IL-17 (Hare-D)

Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat

MS-4 (Taylor-D)

Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat

OH-6 (Wilson-D)

Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat

All the Rating Changes can be found here:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/itw2010093002/

Sabato still sees a 47 Seat GAIN for Republicans come November

Daniel G.

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