Tag Archives: Jon Ossoff (D-Ga)

Republicans hold GA-06…..

This was NOT a surprise….

The national political media made this a story about Donald Trump….

Apparently it wasn’t….

I did a post yesterday about a Washington Post reporter that went to ground in the district…He found out that Republican’s in the district didn’t really like how Trump was acting….

BUT?

They would vote for him again….

Why?

Because as crazy as he is?

He’s moving to stop the Democrats from giving stuff away that they have to work for…

Sound familiar?

It IS…

This the SAME comments that have come from voters on the right and  that defected from the Democratic party since Barack Obama won the Presidency in 2008….

Obama was able to hold on to enough of the black vote in the right places to get elected twice….

But he’s retired…

Now the Media is gonna makeup all kinds of shit tonight and for the next week or so but a couple of things are self evident to me….

All the media efforts to demonize Donald Trump is NOT gonna get Democrats much traction in next years Midterm elections ….

Like the Washington Post guy found out?

Yea Republicans think Trump is all over the place…

But he’s talking about THEM….

Democrats  and the Media REALLY do NOT have any use for the guy….

But he’s NOT going anyplace unless Robert Mueller announces he’s part of a conspiracy….

As of TONIGHT?

The Democrats are 0 and 5 in post Trump Special Elections…..

The Democrats just LOST the White House, the House and the Senate…..

The Democrats have lost TONS of state and local offices over the last eight years….

My party is BLEEDING politically….

ON top of that?

A old Socialist is trying to make sure they lose whatever they STILL have….

All this talk about Progressive/Left movement is NOT the answer….

The only thing it will get the party is more wins in places they ALREADY OWN….

The Democratic party needs to find a way to reach out for those people that Donald Trump has stolen from the Democrats…..

The Democratic party needs to find some down home selling points that will bring ‘swing’ voters back….

The Democratic party needs to stop holding it’s nose up and invite some more people that are in the MIDDLE OF THE political spectrum….

And for goodness sake?

Stop throwing money at candidates that simply aren’t up to the job….All the money in the world won’t get past a candidate that don’t have it….

Cause right now?

They are STILL BLEEDING……

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GA-06…Republican Healthcare moves have more support there than the media paints it…

The special election IS TODAY....

The Washington Post’s 

Support for the Republican effort to change the Affordable Healthcare Law…..

While certain parts of it people want to keep?

Most Republicans are ok with changes to the program….

In addition, Republican  HHS head Tom Price was very popular as the House member from the district…

Hohmann writes that the polling stories do not show the situation actually on the ground in the district ….

the polling does not capture the full story. In dozens of interviews on the ground over three days, most Republicans and many independents who have concerns about the House bill stressed that they still detest Obamacare. Their expectations might seem unreasonable to anyone who is closely following the debate or is steeped in the complexities of public policy, but they believe Donald Trump can and should enact a replacement plan that will both reduce their costs and improve their quality of care.

No matter where people fall in the debate, virtually everyone cares deeply about the outcome. The Journal-Constitution survey, conducted the week before last, found that 81 percent of likely voters describe health care as an “extremely” or “very” important “priority” to them, larger than any other issue by far.

One reason a lot of Republicans in the suburbs north of Atlanta are willing to give Trump leeway is Price. After representing the district for 12 years, he is still highly respected by the grassroots. He won reelection by 23 points last November, even as Trump edged out Hillary Clinton by just one point….

— The bottom line: If Handel loses tonight, it will be almost entirely because of moderate unease with Trump and his agenda. The Journal-Constitution poll found that only about one-third of voters in the district approve of the president. Even one in four Republicans give him an unfavorable review….

More…

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GA-06 Update…Ossoff up 48% to 47%….

Basically a tie, which is damn good for Democrat Jon Ossoff….

An internal poll conducted for Democrat Jon Ossoff’s campaignshows him locked in a dead heat with Republican Karen Handel in the June 20 runoff to represent Georgia’s 6th District.

The poll was conducted by Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, a polling firm that worked for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. And while it’s an internal poll, it’s also the first we’ve seen since Ossoff narrowly missed an outright win in last month’s special election.

It shows Ossoff leading Handel 48-47, well within the 4 percent margin of error. It has a scant 5 percent of voters in the district as undecided – reflective of the all-consuming nature of the nationally-watched race.

Ossoff campaign manager Keenan Pontoni said it shows the 30-year-old Democrat, until a few months ago scarcely known in the district, is “winning” thanks to on-the-ground enthusiasm….

More…

image…AJC.com

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Democrat Jon Ossoff ‘s win was beter than expected in GA-06 but there will be a run-off…

In Red State Georgia  Jon Ossoff was expected to get around 45 to 46% of the vote in the special election to replace Tom Price who went to Trump’s Admin….

Image result for jon ossoff win

Ossoff did  better….

But didn’t get the 50% of the vote he needed to win the Congressional House seat outright…

So there will be a run-off second election on June 20th….

Here’s the FiveThirty Eight look at this…

The result is consistent with a pro-Democratic national environment

There’s some chatter out there that Ossoff’s showing is a bad sign for Democrats. He didn’t clear 50 percent, they say, and he barely improved on Clinton’s performance in Georgia 6.

I think that’s a flawed argument.

For one, Clinton had already greatly improved on previous Democrats’ performance in Georgia 6. She lost to Trump there by only 1.5 percentage points. Former President Barack Obama lost the district by 23 points in 2012, as did Democratic congressional candidate Rodney Stooksbury in 2016.

So if you’re just looking at the 2016 presidential result as your benchmark you’re probably missing something. Instead, our best estimate of the partisan lean of a district is to take a weighted average2 of its past two presidential election results. By that measure, a Democrat would be expected to lose Georgia 6 by 9.5 percentage points in a neutral national environment (one in which the two parties fought to a tie nationally). Democrats did far better than that on Tuesday, losing by 2 points. The Democratic candidates combined took 49 percent to the Republicans’ 51 percent….

More…

image….fivethirtyeight.com

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