Tag Archives: Jon Ossoff (D-Ga)

GA-06 Update…Ossoff up 48% to 47%….

Basically a tie, which is damn good for Democrat Jon Ossoff….

An internal poll conducted for Democrat Jon Ossoff’s campaignshows him locked in a dead heat with Republican Karen Handel in the June 20 runoff to represent Georgia’s 6th District.

The poll was conducted by Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, a polling firm that worked for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. And while it’s an internal poll, it’s also the first we’ve seen since Ossoff narrowly missed an outright win in last month’s special election.

It shows Ossoff leading Handel 48-47, well within the 4 percent margin of error. It has a scant 5 percent of voters in the district as undecided – reflective of the all-consuming nature of the nationally-watched race.

Ossoff campaign manager Keenan Pontoni said it shows the 30-year-old Democrat, until a few months ago scarcely known in the district, is “winning” thanks to on-the-ground enthusiasm….

More…

image…AJC.com

Share on Facebook

Democrat Jon Ossoff ‘s win was beter than expected in GA-06 but there will be a run-off…

In Red State Georgia  Jon Ossoff was expected to get around 45 to 46% of the vote in the special election to replace Tom Price who went to Trump’s Admin….

Image result for jon ossoff win

Ossoff did  better….

But didn’t get the 50% of the vote he needed to win the Congressional House seat outright…

So there will be a run-off second election on June 20th….

Here’s the FiveThirty Eight look at this…

The result is consistent with a pro-Democratic national environment

There’s some chatter out there that Ossoff’s showing is a bad sign for Democrats. He didn’t clear 50 percent, they say, and he barely improved on Clinton’s performance in Georgia 6.

I think that’s a flawed argument.

For one, Clinton had already greatly improved on previous Democrats’ performance in Georgia 6. She lost to Trump there by only 1.5 percentage points. Former President Barack Obama lost the district by 23 points in 2012, as did Democratic congressional candidate Rodney Stooksbury in 2016.

So if you’re just looking at the 2016 presidential result as your benchmark you’re probably missing something. Instead, our best estimate of the partisan lean of a district is to take a weighted average2 of its past two presidential election results. By that measure, a Democrat would be expected to lose Georgia 6 by 9.5 percentage points in a neutral national environment (one in which the two parties fought to a tie nationally). Democrats did far better than that on Tuesday, losing by 2 points. The Democratic candidates combined took 49 percent to the Republicans’ 51 percent….

More…

image….fivethirtyeight.com

Share on Facebook