Tag Archives: FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver on Hillary Clinton 2016…odds

Nate Silver and the Bookies STILL have Hillary winning….

So do most of us….

But THAT sure does make a LOT of us uneasy , siince THAT was the story last time and she DID NOT even get the nomination….

With so many candidates and so long to go until next November, we’re going to make plenty of bad predictions over the course of the 2016 campaign. But one of our very first predictions about 2016, one we made almost three years ago, has already proven true.

“If [Hillary] Clinton runs for president in 2016, one thing is almost certain,” I wrote back in December 2012, at a time when polls showed about 65 percent of Americans had a favorable view of Clinton, “she won’t be as popular as she is right now.” I added: “In an era of intense partisanship, there is a relatively low ceiling (and perhaps also a relatively high floor) on the favorability ratings that any politician can have in the most active stages of a presidential campaign.”

Clinton’s favorability rating has, in fact, fallen quite a lot, to an average of about 42 percent favorable and 48 percent unfavorable in recent polls.

Numbers like those, when combined with the “emailgate” scandal and Sen. Bernie Sanders’s position in the polls (he’s now running very close to Clinton in New Hampshire, although not in Iowa or nationally), have a lot of commentators saying Clinton’s campaign has had an unexpectedly rough start. “Hillary is probable, but no longer inevitable,” wrote David Horsey of the Los Angeles Times, assessing her chances to win the nomination.

Horsey is right to deal in probabilities rather than certainties. Personally, I give Clinton about an 85 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. (The general election is a whole different story.) That’s a pinch higher than betting markets, which put her chances at 75 to 80 percent.

But those betting markets, unlike some pundits, haven’t changed their assessment of Clinton much. In the markets, her probability of winning the nomination is still close to its all-time high and has barely budged in the past few months, rarely falling much below 75 percent…