Tag Archives: Doug Jones

Doug Jones Is Just A Normal Polling Error Away From A Win In Alabama

…from FiveThirtyEight….whuich is hedging their bets,,,,

Things seem to be going Roy Moore’s way. President Trump endorsed him. The Republican National Committee is back to supporting him. And Moore, who has been accused of sexual contact with women when they were underaged, has led by an average of 3 percentage points in polls1 taken within 21 days of the Dec. 12 special Senate election in Alabama. The betting markets give Moore about an 80 percent chance of victory — roughly the same chance they gave Hillary Clinton just before the 2016 presidential election.

Before Election Day last year, we advised caution, however — polls aren’t perfect at even the best of times, Trump had an advantage in the Electoral College, and there were a lot of undecided voters. So what’s our advice heading into the Alabama election? Well, it’s the same — be cautious — but for slightly different reasons.

A look at all U.S. Senate election polls since 19982 shows that their average error — how far off the polls were from the actual election result — is more than a percentage point higher than the average error in presidential polling. Also, Alabama polls have been volatile, this is an off-cycle special election with difficult-to-predict turnout, and there haven’t been many top-quality pollsters surveying the Alabama race. So even though Moore is a favorite, Democrat Doug Jones is just a normal polling error away from winning. (Or, by the same token, Moore could win comfortably.)….

The bottom line is that with less than a week to go in the campaign, Moore seems to have the edge — but he’s far from a sure thing….

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Doug Jones works to energize the black vote in Alabama US Senate race…

Alabama is a RED State….

Democratic infrastructure in the state is almost nonexistent …

But black voters DO continue to vote Democratic…

Jones will need that vote to come tom out to win next Tuesday…

Doug Jones’ hunt for votes took him over the Edmund Pettus Bridge and into Selma’s annual Christmas parade Saturday, seeking to energize his most important bloc of supporters in Alabama’s special Senate election: African-Americans.

Jones’ visit to a civil rights movement landmark epitomized his strategy in the final days of the Alabama race. Jones simply cannot win without African-American voters flooding to the polls on December 12, when he faces scandal-plagued Republican Roy Moore and hopes to become the first Democrat in years to win a statewide race in Alabama. Turnout for the unusual special election is uncertain and there are fewer traditional swing voters available here than other states, laying even more importance on the Democratic base.

Jones is leaning on his own civil rights record as a federal prosecutor and emphasizing education to maximize support from black voters. But years of Democratic losses have weakened voter interest and atrophied the state party, which is also riven by conflict between the different factions that remain. That has forced Jones to build a coalition almost from scratch in the last few months, leading some to criticize Jones for starting black outreach too late.

“The challenge that Doug has — that most Democrats have — is that there is no party infrastructure … to organize voter turnout other than local Democratic parties,” said Mark Kennedy, a former chairman of the Alabama Democratic Party. “So Doug, unfortunately, is probably on his own when it comes to Election Day.”…

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Latest Alabama US Senate poll has Moore up by just 2% pts….

The race for the US Senate seat from Alabama IS close….

The margin of error of the survey is plus or minus two percent, meaning Moore and Jones are statistically tied three weeks before the special election.

The new poll suggests allegations against Moore have chipped away at his lead, which was 11% in a November 8th Raycom News Network poll conducted by Strategy Research.

When asked “what do you think about the allegations made against Roy Moore,” 45% believe all or some of the allegations; 34% do not believe the allegations; and 21% believe some or all of the allegations, but say it has not changed their vote.

The allegations, which have catapulted the Alabama race onto the national stage, has deeply divided many voters. Among Republicans, Sen. Richard Shelby has said he will write-in a candidate rather than vote for Moore. Gov. Kay Ivey, a Republican, has said she has no reason to “disbelieve” Moore’s female accusers, but will vote for Moore to maintain a Republican vote in the U.S. Senate.

Among party lines, nearly half (48%) of Republican voters surveyed do not believe the allegations. Another 24% of Republicans say they believe some or all of the allegations, but it has not changed their vote.

Seventy-four percent of Democrats believe some or all of the allegations….

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Note….

The RealClearPolitics average for this race has Jones ahead by +0.8….

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On those Alabama Special Election Senate Moore/Jones polls?

Since Trump did his thing last year?

Pundits get nervous with polls showing someone clearly ahead….

This time is no different…

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Important on why polls in the Alabama Senate special election are likely unreliable 👇

 Note….
Some people are thinking that the Jones leading stories may push more Moore supports to actually come out and vote…
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