Consider these margins for Clinton in RCP averages as of 8 AM this morning [Sunday 7/17/16]
2-way national 2.7
4-way national 4.0
which for RCP translates to a 209-164 advantage in the electoral college with following states as toss-ups
Florida (29) Georgia (16) Iowa (6) Michigan (16)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10)
Maine CD2 (1)
But then, even from RCP, note her advantages in some of those states:
PA 45.5 42.3 Clinton +3.2 FL 44.0 43.4 Clinton +0.6 OH 43.3 42.0 Clinton +1.3 WI 44.3 38.7 Clinton +5.6 IA 43.0 39.2 Clinton +3.8 VA 44.0 39.4 Clinton +4.6 Trending Down largely bc ofpoll fr Hampton showing a tie NC 44.0 42.0 Clinton +2.0 GA 40.8 45.0 Trump +4.2 NH 44.5 41.8 Clinton +2.7
And FWIW, current margins on some of those states from Pollster.com followed by Nate’s % of win
PA 42-39 Clinton +3 66.0-33.9
FL 43-41 Clinton +2 56.1-43.9
OH 41-40 Clinton +1 54.1-45.8
WI 46-37 Clinton +9 77.1-22.8
IA 41-38 Clinton +3 57.1-42.8
NC 45-41 Clinton +4 50.1-49.9
VA 42-37 Clinton +6 67.0-32.9
GA 40-43 Trump +3 27.3-72.6
NH 44-40 Clinton +4 60.7-39.0
Taking that all together, I still think VA, WI, NH and PA are clearly off the table for Trump.
Then consider — if he holds GA and NC (the latter in some doubt), and you were to give him out of the above IA, OH, FL, and NH, you would take 57 from the 332 electoral votes won by Obama in 2012, and Clinton would have 275, and still win the election.
And oh by the way
– this is pretty much as bad as it is likely to get
– I do not see Trump winning any of those four states, except on an outside chance OH, and that is likely to disappear after the convention, and remember Pence opposed the auto bail-out
– even with the new efforts at voter suppression, I look at numbers for Governor and Senator and feel inclined that Clinton will carry NC.
Yes, I know I have not included NV or CO, but I think the Latino vote puts both out of reach for Trump.
Remember, do not panic on any one poll. Do not get super-elated on any one poll. We still have the Republican convention, the Dem VP pick (which apparently will come the day after the Republican convention), the Dem convention, and the debates, plus whatever news from around the world that might impact this race.
UPDATE given a number of national polls released this morning
Pollster national average, including all (yes even Rasmussen) Clinton 44 — Trump 40
RCP 2-way 43.8 — 40.6 +3.2 for Clinton
4-way 40.8 — 36.3 +4.5 for Clinton both showing an increase
538: Polls Plus 63.3% chance for Clinton v 36.7 for Trump
Polls only 65.3-34.6
now cast — if election held today 66.6% for Clinton to win versus 33.3% chance for Trump
And adding what I put in several comments:
2008 Obama + 7.2 won 365 EVS
2012 Obama + 3.9 won 332 EVs
At a 5% margin, you would probably project Clinton to pick up NC and have 347 EVs — there is some relation between national margin and what happens state by state…