Tag Archives: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest 9/10/13

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest 9/10/13: De Blasio flirts with outright win in New York mayoral primary

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by David Nir

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Leading Off:

• NYC Mayor: We have three final polls of today’s Democratic primary for New York City mayor, and the chief question they all pose is, will Public Advocate Bill de Blasio hit 40 percent and avoid a runoff with either former Comptroller Bill Thompson or City Council Speaker Christine Quinn? Here are all the numbers, in the order in which they were released (with trendlines in parentheses):

• Marist (9/3-6): de Blasio 36, Thompson 20, Quinn 20 (8/12-14: de Blasio 20, Quinn 20, Thompson 18)• PPP (9/7-8): de Blasio 39, Thompson 19, Quinn 13

• Quinnipiac (9/6-8): de Blasio 39, Thompson 25, Quinn 18 (8/28-9/1: de Blasio 43, Thompson 20, Quinn 18)

Quinnipiac is the first pollster to actually show de Blasio cresting after his August surge, though Marist (whose prior poll was a few weeks older) still has him moving upward. If de Blasio still has forward momentum, he may well surpass the magic 40 mark; if not, he might fall just short.

And if there is a runoff, it looks like it’ll be de Blasio vs. Thompson. PPP’s last-minute entry, their first of the race, aligns with Quinnipiac in seeing Quinn fall to third, and Marist’s trendline is no good for her, either. It’s not terribly surprising: According to PPP, Quinn has a remarkably terrible 34-48 favorability rating—and remember, we’re talking about Democratic primary voters here. De Blasio (62-18) and Thompson (57-18), meanwhile, are both quite popular.

But this is a good example of favorables only telling you so much. De Blasio’s support evidently runs deeper and more fervently, since PPP has him crushing Thompson 53-33 in a hypothetical second round. Marist shows a tighter runoff, but de Blasio still has a solid lead, 50-38. (Quinnipiac didn’t ask about runoffs this time, but their prior poll gave de Blasio a 56-36 edge, similar to PPP’s.)

This may all be moot, though, if de Blasio can cap his extraordinary month-long run with a final burst of energy at the finish. We’ll have our answers on tonight, so be sure to come back to Daily Kos Elections for our liveblog……

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