Tag Archives: Ca

Tax Exodus States: Oh, Really?

Fox lies again:  People and Jobs Are Leaving in Droves!  (Or not..)    

Fox News is making much noise about a Fiscal Times article that has highlighted five states that Fiscal Times claims people are leaving due to high taxes.  I guess people who lean right are so used to being lied to by various right-wing news outlets that they don’t even question the data they read.  (Oh, life is so rosy in the red fog of the right!)  This particular story about people leaving these states in droves has no obvious sources.  Other than a reference to buy a survey on each of these states for $29.99.

There is talk about “out migration”, but it is unclear over what period of time people are supposedly “out migrating” and what they exactly consider “out migrating”.  For the five states out of which people are supposedly “out migrating” have all experienced increases in population.  So even if some are “out migrating”, obviously other people are taking their place.  And there is no obvious evidence that people are “out migrating” due to taxes.  Generally, people have been moving out of the Northeast and Midwest for decades now, but all of those states have more than enough people either being born in the state or “in migrating” from somewhere to increase the populations of these states significantly.

Here are the five horrid states:
You can read Fiscal Times’ detail HERE, but the five states that people are supposedly leaving in droves are these:
1.  Illinois, the home of Chicago, the home of Barack Obama, the state and the city that conservatives love to hate- and love to hold up as a bad example of… everything.  Illinois increased its state income tax temporarily from 3% to 5% two years ago.
2.  New York (actually tied with California according to the Fiscal Times).  I guess some rich guy feels that taxes are too high in New York, so he is taking off for Florida, wrote a letter to the New York Post, and that is all that anybody who reads the Fiscal Times needs to know.
3. California, another state that conservatives love to push around and discuss what a “shambles” it is.
4.  New Jersey, which has redeemed itself a bit since it elected a Republican governor.
5.  Ohio, as in “Let’s kick the old Rust Belt state around again”.  The author states:  “The interesting part about Ohio though, is that a constant stream has always existed out of the state. ”  Does the author mean “exited”?  Any editors spell-checking over there?

Rankings of These States in Terms of Job Growth

This will be a two-part post; today we’ll look at ranking of job growth or loss in these states as a percentage increase or decrease over the past two years; tomorrow we’ll look at numbers of people employed and unemployed, again as a percentage increase or decrease, in these states over the past two years.
Shouldn’t the number of jobs be declining compared to states full of milk, honey, low taxes, and Republicans?

Now, the article is about people actually packing up and leaving the state because, according to the author,  they can pay less taxes elsewhere….

Bush Tax cut threshold negotiations will start at $500K…NOT $250K…..

I told you so on this…..

While most American’s would think $100,000 should be the top …..

The fact is there are a lot of two income families that earn between $250,000 and $500,000 a year……

Now I know the first thing that is gonna back at me is those people should be paying more taxes……

And Folks I agree…

But the fact of the matter is those people vote also…

And with the Republicans coming in as the majority in the House there isn’t a prayer of getting a House approval on the lower figure even if someone comes in with a poll saying these people wouldn’t mind a SMALL jump in they taxes they have to pay….

Also….

House members in area’s that have those working and living will vote against the tax increase…..

That would involve House members in NY, CA, TX, and FL…..do the math……

***

President Barack Obama said this week that he would make a new push to protect the middle class from the tax cuts’ scheduled expiration at the end of this year.

The new figures means a broader swath of Americans would be considered “middle class” during the negotiations.

“A higher threshold is more inclusive and doesn’t make an enemy out of households that may be slightly above $250,000, but are still firmly in the middle class,” a senior Hill aide explained. “It also simplifies the contrast message, by making it clear what Republicans are fighting for: a tax cut that is literally for millionaires.”

Democrats say that even if the figure went as high as $1 million, the result would still be very helpful to deficit reduction since the bulk of the cost of extending the Bush tax cuts is with those who make more than $1 million, not those between $250,000 and $1 million.

The aides also said that the administration wants to “decouple” the middle- and upper-class extensions, with a permanent extension for the middle class and a temporary extension for the top tier.

“Its big selling point is that, as long as middle-class and upper-income tax cuts are linked, GOP will always have leverage to extend the less popular upper income tax cuts by holding the very popular middle class tax cut hostage,” the aide said.

More……

Polls for Thursday, October 28, 2010…WA, CA, FL, OH, CT, RI, MN, ME, LA, OR, OH, MI, DE, PA, VA, HA, NY, NC, NJ, GA, Gen Congress

From Realclearpolitics….*

Thursday, October 28

RacePollResultsSpread
Washington Senate – Rossi vs. MurrayRasmussen ReportsMurray 47, Rossi 48Rossi +1
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownFieldBrown 49, Whitman 39Brown +10
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaRasmussen ReportsBoxer 49, Fiorina 46Boxer +3
Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Meek vs. CristQuinnipiacRubio 42, Crist 35, Meek 15Rubio +7
Florida Governor – Scott vs. SinkMason-DixonScott 43, Sink 46Sink +3
Florida Governor – Scott vs. SinkRasmussen ReportsScott 48, Sink 45Scott +3
Florida Governor – Scott vs. SinkQuinnipiacScott 41, Sink 45Sink +4
Ohio Governor – Kasich vs. StricklandRasmussen ReportsKasich 48, Strickland 44Kasich +4
Ohio Governor – Kasich vs. StricklandSurveyUSAKasich 49, Strickland 44Kasich +5
Connecticut Senate – McMahon vs. BlumenthalCT Capitol Report/MRGBlumenthal 52, McMahon 44Blumenthal +8
Rhode Island Governor – Chafee vs. Caprio vs. RobitailleNBC 10/Quest ResearchChafee 35, Caprio 25, Robitaille 28Chafee +7
Minnesota Governor – Emmer vs. Dayton vs. HornerMinn. Public RadioDayton 41, Emmer 29, Horner 11Dayton +12
Maine Governor – LePage vs. Mitchell vs. CutlerRasmussen ReportsLePage 40, Mitchell 26, Cutler 26LePage +14
Louisiana Senate – Vitter vs. MelanconWWL-TV/Clarus ResearchVitter 50, Melancon 38Vitter +12
Oregon Senate – Huffman vs. WydenRasmussen ReportsWyden 53, Huffman 42Wyden +11
Ohio Senate – Portman vs. FisherSurveyUSAPortman 52, Fisher 37Portman +15
Michigan Governor – Snyder vs. BerneroDetroit NewsSnyder 53, Bernero 35Snyder +18
Delaware Senate – O’Donnell vs. CoonsFairleigh DickinsonCoons 57, O’Donnell 36Coons +21
Pennsylvania Senate – Sestak vs. ToomeyMorning Call TrackingToomey 48, Sestak 40Toomey +8
Pennsylvania Governor – Corbett vs. OnoratoMorning Call TrackingCorbett 52, Onorato 37Corbett +15
Florida 25th District – Rivera vs. GarciaSunshine State News/VSSRivera 44, Garcia 43Rivera +1
Pennsylvania 10th District – Marino vs. CarneyTimes Leader/Critical InsightsMarino 47, Carney 38Marino +9
Pennsylvania 11th District – Barletta vs. KanjorskiTimes Leader/Critical InsightsKanjorski 47, Barletta 39Kanjorski +8
Virginia 5th District – Hurt vs. PerrielloSurveyUSA*Hurt 51, Perriello 43Hurt +8
Hawaii 1st District – Djou vs. HanabusaAloha Vote/MRGHanabusa 50, Djou 45Hanabusa +5
Washington 3rd District – Herrera vs. HeckSurveyUSAHerrera 50, Heck 46Herrera +4
New York 23rd District – Doheny vs. OwensSiena*Owens 40, Doheny 37Owens +3
North Carolina 2nd District – Ellmers vs. EtheridgeSurveyUSAEllmers 46, Etheridge 41Ellmers +5
New Jersey 12th District – Sipprelle vs. HoltMonmouth UniversityHolt 51, Sipprelle 43Holt +8
Georgia 8th District – Scott vs. MarshallLandmark (R)Scott 53, Marshall 39Scott +14
Minnesota 1st District – Demmer vs. WalzSurveyUSAWalz 50, Demmer 41Walz +9
Connecticut 1st District – Brickley vs. LarsonCT Capitol Report/MRGLarson 56, Brickley 38Larson +18
Connecticut 2nd District – Peckinpaugh vs. CourtneyCT Capitol Report/MRGCourtney 57, Peckinpaugh 38Courtney +19
Generic Congressional VoteBloombergRepublicans 47, Democrats 44Republicans +3

*….Some improvements for Democrats here….Hanabusa in Hawaii leads …..Owens in NY-23 leads…..Sink in FL leads…..

And if you cuss the President in Rhode Island you give up your lead….He, he, he…..

Oh, yea……Gen Congress …the GOP down to a 3 point lead……

Polls for Tuesday, October 26, 2010…CA, WV, PA, OH, CT, KY, NV, IL, NC, GA, NM, MD, IN, ID, FL, NY, SD, NJ

From Realclearpolitics.

Tuesday, October 26
RacePollResultsSpread
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaFOX News/POR-RasmussenBoxer 48, Fiorina 44Boxer +4
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaPPP (D)Boxer 52, Fiorina 43Boxer +9
West Virginia Senate Special Election – Raese vs. ManchinFOX News/POR-RasmussenManchin 46, Raese 48Raese +2
Pennsylvania Senate – Sestak vs. ToomeyReuters/IpsosToomey 46, Sestak 46Tie
Ohio Governor – Kasich vs. StricklandQuinnipiacKasich 49, Strickland 43Kasich +6
Ohio Governor – Kasich vs. StricklandFOX News/POR-RasmussenKasich 47, Strickland 43Kasich +4
Connecticut Senate – McMahon vs. BlumenthalQuinnipiacBlumenthal 54, McMahon 42Blumenthal +12
Kentucky Senate – Paul vs. ConwayFOX News/POR-RasmussenPaul 50, Conway 43Paul +7
Kentucky Senate – Paul vs. ConwayPPP (D)Paul 53, Conway 40Paul +13
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownFOX News/POR-RasmussenBrown 50, Whitman 41Brown +9
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownPPP (D)Brown 53, Whitman 42Brown +11
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownSuffolk UniversityBrown 50, Whitman 42Brown +8
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaSuffolk UniversityBoxer 52, Fiorina 43Boxer +9
Nevada Senate – Angle vs. ReidRasmussen ReportsAngle 49, Reid 45Angle +4
Illinois Governor – Brady vs. QuinnChicago TribuneBrady 43, Quinn 39Brady +4
Illinois Governor – Brady vs. QuinnFOX News/POR-RasmussenBrady 44, Quinn 39Brady +5
Wisconsin Senate – Feingold vs. JohnsonRasmussen ReportsJohnson 53, Feingold 46Johnson +7
Pennsylvania Governor – Corbett vs. OnoratoReuters/IpsosCorbett 49, Onorato 43Corbett +6
North Carolina Senate – Burr vs. MarshallCivitas (R)Burr 44, Marshall 34Burr +10
Illinois Senate – Giannoulias vs. KirkFOX News/POR-RasmussenKirk 43, Giannoulias 41Kirk +2
Connecticut Governor – Foley vs. MalloyQuinnipiacMalloy 48, Foley 43Malloy +5
Connecticut Governor – Foley vs. MalloyRasmussen ReportsMalloy 49, Foley 46Malloy +3
Georgia Governor – Deal vs. BarnesInsider AdvantageDeal 47, Barnes 41Deal +6
New Mexico Governor – Martinez vs. DenishRasmussen ReportsMartinez 52, Denish 42Martinez +10
Ohio Senate – Portman vs. FisherQuinnipiacPortman 53, Fisher 36Portman +17
Connecticut Senate – McMahon vs. BlumenthalFOX News/POR-RasmussenBlumenthal 53, McMahon 42Blumenthal +11
Connecticut Governor – Foley vs. MalloyFOX News/POR-RasmussenMalloy 47, Foley 44Malloy +3
Pennsylvania Senate – Sestak vs. ToomeyMorning Call TrackingToomey 48, Sestak 40Toomey +8
Pennsylvania Governor – Corbett vs. OnoratoMorning Call TrackingCorbett 50, Onorato 39Corbett +11
Maryland Senate – Wargotz vs. MikulskiBaltimore Sun/OpinionWorksMikulski 59, Wargotz 32Mikulski +27
Maryland Senate – Wargotz vs. MikulskiRasmussen ReportsMikulski 56, Wargotz 38Mikulski +18
Indiana Senate – Coats vs. EllsworthDowns Center/SUSACoats 54, Ellsworth 32Coats +22
Idaho Governor – Otter vs. AllredMason-DixonOtter 52, Allred 30Otter +22
Idaho Senate – Crapo vs. SullivanMason-DixonCrapo 64, Sullivan 20Crapo +44
Florida 8th District – Webster vs. GraysonSunshine State News/VSSWebster 48, Grayson 41Webster +7
Idaho 1st District – Labrador vs. MinnickMason-DixonMinnick 44, Labrador 41Minnick +3
New York 20th District – Gibson vs. MurphySienaGibson 51, Murphy 42Gibson +9
South Dakota At-Large – Noem vs. Herseth SandlinArgus Leader/KELO/Mason-DixonNoem 45, Herseth Sandlin 43Noem +2
New Jersey 3rd District – Runyan vs. AdlerMonmouth UniversityRunyan 48, Adler 43Runyan +5
New Jersey 3rd District – Runyan vs. AdlerRutgers-EagletonRunyan 45, Adler 46Adler +1
New Jersey 6th District – Little vs. PalloneMonmouth UniversityPallone 52, Little 45Pallone +7
California 20th District – Vidak vs. CostaSurveyUSAVidak 52, Costa 42Vidak +10
Maryland 1st District – Harris vs. KratovilBaltimore Sun/OpinionWorksHarris 40, Kratovil 40Tie
Kentucky 3rd District – Lally vs. YarmuthSurveyUSAYarmuth 50, Lally 46Yarmuth +4


Polls for Sunday, October 24th, 2010….OH, MA, CO, FL, CA, PA, ND, MD, MN

From Realclearpolitics….

Sunday, October 24
RacePollResultsSpread
Ohio Governor – Kasich vs. StricklandOhio Poll/Univ of Cin.Kasich 49, Strickland 47Kasich +2
Ohio Senate – Portman vs. FisherOhio Poll/Univ of Cin.Portman 58, Fisher 39Portman +19
Massachusetts Governor – Baker vs. Patrick vs. CahillBoston Globe/UNHPatrick 43, Baker 39, Cahill 8Patrick +4
Colorado Senate – Buck vs. BennetDenver Post/SurveyUSABuck 47, Bennet 47Tie
Colorado Governor – Maes vs. Hickenlooper vs. TancredoDenver Post/SurveyUSAHickenlooper 49, Tancredo 39, Maes 9Hickenlooper +10
Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Meek vs. CristSt. Petersburg TimesRubio 41, Crist 26, Meek 20Rubio +15
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownLA Times/USCBrown 52, Whitman 39Brown +13
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaLA Times/USCBoxer 50, Fiorina 42Boxer +8
Pennsylvania Governor – Corbett vs. OnoratoRasmussen ReportsCorbett 50, Onorato 45Corbett +5
Minnesota Governor – Emmer vs. Dayton vs. HornerStar TribuneDayton 41, Emmer 34, Horner 13Dayton +7
Indiana Senate – Coats vs. EllsworthRasmussen ReportsCoats 52, Ellsworth 34Coats +18
Pennsylvania Senate – Sestak vs. ToomeyMorning Call TrackingToomey 46, Sestak 43Toomey +3
Pennsylvania Governor – Corbett vs. OnoratoMorning Call TrackingCorbett 50, Onorato 41Corbett +9
North Dakota Senate – Hoeven vs. PotterRasmussen ReportsHoeven 72, Potter 25Hoeven +47
Maryland Governor – Ehrlich vs. O’MalleyBaltimore Sun/OpinionWorksO’Malley 52, Ehrlich 38O’Malley +14

Polls for Saturday, October 23, 2010….TX, IL, CA, MO, PA, SD, NJ, KY

From Realclearpolitics…..

Saturday, October 23
RacePollResultsSpread
Texas Governor – Perry vs. WhiteRasmussen ReportsPerry 51, White 43Perry +8
Illinois Senate – Giannoulias vs. KirkPost-Dispatch/Mason-DixonKirk 43, Giannoulias 41Kirk +2
Illinois Governor – Brady vs. QuinnPost-Dispatch/Mason-DixonBrady 44, Quinn 40Brady +4
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownRasmussen ReportsBrown 48, Whitman 42Brown +6
Missouri Senate – Blunt vs. CarnahanPost-Dispatch/Mason-DixonBlunt 49, Carnahan 40Blunt +9
Pennsylvania Senate – Sestak vs. ToomeyMorning Call TrackingToomey 45, Sestak 42Toomey +3
Pennsylvania Governor – Corbett vs. OnoratoMorning Call TrackingCorbett 49, Onorato 41Corbett +8
South Dakota Governor – Daugaard vs. HeidepriemRasmussen ReportsDaugaard 55, Heidepriem 36Daugaard +19
New Jersey 3rd District – Runyan vs. AdlerStockton/ZogbyRunyan 40, Adler 37Runyan +3
Kentucky 6th District – Barr vs. ChandlerMason-DixonChandler 48, Barr 44Chandler +4

Polls for Friday, October 22nd, 2010….CA, FL, PA, CO, ME, MN, MA, RI, NY, AR, MI, SD, WA, Gen Congress

From Realclearpolitics….

Friday, October 22
Race (Click to Sort)PollResultsSpread
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaRasmussen ReportsBoxer 48, Fiorina 46Boxer +2
Florida Governor – Scott vs. SinkSunshine State News/VSSScott 45, Sink 45Tie
Florida Governor – Scott vs. SinkSt. Petersburg TimesScott 44, Sink 41Scott +3
Pennsylvania Senate – Sestak vs. ToomeyRasmussen ReportsToomey 48, Sestak 44Toomey +4
Pennsylvania Governor – Corbett vs. OnoratoQuinnipiacCorbett 49, Onorato 44Corbett +5
Colorado Governor – Maes vs. Hickenlooper vs. TancredoMagellan Strategies (R)Hickenlooper 44, Tancredo 43, Maes 9Hickenlooper +1
Maine Governor – LePage vs. Mitchell vs. CutlerCritical InsightsLePage 32, Mitchell 20, Cutler 19LePage +12
Minnesota Governor – Emmer vs. Dayton vs. HornerRasmussen ReportsDayton 44, Emmer 41, Horner 10Dayton +3
Massachusetts Governor – Baker vs. Patrick vs. CahillWestern NE CollegePatrick 44, Baker 36, Cahill 8Patrick +8
Rhode Island Governor – Chafee vs. Caprio vs. RobitailleRasmussen ReportsCaprio 28, Chafee 35, Robitaille 25Chafee +7
New York Governor – Paladino vs. CuomoMaristCuomo 60, Paladino 37Cuomo +23
New York Governor – Paladino vs. CuomoRasmussen ReportsCuomo 51, Paladino 37Cuomo +14
New York Senate Special Election – DioGuardi vs. GillibrandMaristGillibrand 56, DioGuardi 38Gillibrand +18
New York Senate – Townsend vs. SchumerMaristSchumer 63, Townsend 35Schumer +28
Pennsylvania Senate – Sestak vs. ToomeyMorning Call TrackingToomey 43, Sestak 43Tie
Pennsylvania Governor – Corbett vs. OnoratoMorning Call TrackingCorbett 49, Onorato 40Corbett +9
Arkansas Governor – Keet vs. BeebeMason-DixonBeebe 59, Keet 33Beebe +26
Michigan 15th District – Steele vs. DingellEPIC-MRADingell 53, Steele 36Dingell +17
South Dakota At-Large – Noem vs. Herseth SandlinRasmussen ReportsNoem 49, Herseth Sandlin 44Noem +5
Washington 8th District – Reichert vs. DelBeneSurveyUSAReichert 52, DelBene 45Reichert +7
Maine 1st District – Scontras vs. PingreeCritical InsightsPingree 45, Scontras 40Pingree +5
Maine 2nd District – Michaud v. LevesqueCritical InsightsMichaud 49, Levesque 30Michaud +19
Generic Congressional VoteNewsweekRepublicans 45, Democrats 48Democrats +3

Less than 2 weeks…..Polling (A lot!) for Wednesday, October 20th, 2010…CA, WA, FL, OH, IL, AK, PA, WV, AR, MO, NY, AZ, MS, WI, NH,

From Reaclearpolitics….

Wednesday, October 20
RacePollResultsSpread
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaPPICBoxer 43, Fiorina 37Boxer +6
Washington Senate – Rossi vs. MurrayMcClatchy/MaristMurray 48, Rossi 47Murray +1
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownPPICBrown 44, Whitman 36Brown +8
Kentucky Senate – Paul vs. ConwayMason-DixonPaul 48, Conway 43Paul +5
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaSurveyUSABoxer 46, Fiorina 44Boxer +2
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownSurveyUSABrown 47, Whitman 40Brown +7
Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Meek vs. CristCNN/TimeRubio 46, Crist 32, Meek 20Rubio +14
Florida Governor – Scott vs. SinkCNN/TimeSink 46, Scott 49Scott +3
Florida Governor – Scott vs. SinkRasmussen ReportsSink 44, Scott 50Scott +6
Ohio Governor – Kasich vs. StricklandCNN/TimeKasich 47, Strickland 48Strickland +1
Pennsylvania Senate – Sestak vs. ToomeyMorning Call TrackingToomey 41, Sestak 44Sestak +3
Illinois Senate – Giannoulias vs. KirkRasmussen ReportsKirk 44, Giannoulias 40Kirk +4
Illinois Senate – Giannoulias vs. KirkPPP (D)Kirk 42, Giannoulias 40Kirk +2
Alaska Senate – Miller vs. McAdams vs. MurkowskiCNN/TimeMiller 37, Murkowski 37, McAdams 23Tie
Pennsylvania Governor – Corbett vs. OnoratoMorning Call TrackingCorbett 47, Onorato 40Corbett +7
Pennsylvania Governor – Corbett vs. OnoratoPPP (D)Corbett 48, Onorato 46Corbett +2
West Virginia Senate Special Election – Raese vs. ManchinRasmussen ReportsManchin 43, Raese 50Raese +7
Arkansas Senate – Boozman vs. LincolnCNN/TimeBoozman 55, Lincoln 41Boozman +14
Ohio Senate – Portman vs. FisherCNN/TimePortman 55, Fisher 40Portman +15
Ohio Senate – Portman vs. FisherQuinnipiacPortman 55, Fisher 34Portman +21
Missouri Senate – Blunt vs. CarnahanRasmussen ReportsBlunt 52, Carnahan 43Blunt +9
New York Governor – Paladino vs. CuomoSienaCuomo 63, Paladino 26Cuomo +37
New York Senate Special Election – DioGuardi vs. GillibrandSienaGillibrand 60, DioGuardi 31Gillibrand +29
New York Senate – Townsend vs. SchumerSienaSchumer 67, Townsend 28Schumer +39
Arkansas Governor – Keet vs. BeebeCNN/TimeBeebe 62, Keet 35Beebe +27
Alaska Governor – Parnell vs. BerkowitzCNN/TimeParnell 62, Berkowitz 36Parnell +26
Mississippi 1st District – Nunnelee vs. ChildersThe Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)Nunnelee 44, Childers 39Nunnelee +5
Arizona 5th District – Schweikert vs. MitchellThe Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)Schweikert 45, Mitchell 42Schweikert +3
Illinois 17th District – Schilling vs. HareThe Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)Schilling 45, Hare 38Schilling +7
New York 19th District – Hayworth vs. HallThe Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)Hall 43, Hayworth 43Tie
New York 24th District – Hanna vs. ArcuriThe Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)Arcuri 47, Hanna 37Arcuri +10
Pennsylvania 10th District – Marino vs. CarneyThe Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)Marino 41, Carney 41Tie
Wisconsin 8th District – Ribble vs. KagenThe Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)Ribble 45, Kagen 44Ribble +1
Illinois 14th District – Hultgren vs. FosterThe Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)Hultgren 43, Foster 42Hultgren +1
New Hampshire 1st District – Guinta vs. Shea-PorterThe Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)Guinta 47, Shea-Porter 42Guinta +5
Pennsylvania 8th District – Fitzpatrick vs. MurphyThe Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)Murphy 46, Fitzpatrick 43Murphy +3
Pennsylvania 4th District – Rothfus vs. AltmireSusquehannaAltmire 47, Rothfus 35Altmire +12
Oregon 1st District – Cornilles vs. WuSurveyUSAWu 51, Cornilles 42Wu +9
Generic Congressional VoteAssociated Press/GfKRepublicans 50, Democrats 43Republicans +7

Tossups looking blue. NV, WA, PA, IL, CA……Talkandpolitcs…

Close races – but Reid, Murray, Sestak, Guiannoulias, Boxer – they might pull it off.

Media has been pushing drama and right-leaning polls for a long time, but elections might become a huge surprise. Secret ads and loose tea party cannons could tip lots of independents.

Talkandpolitics gut feeling is Dems keeping both Houses, slightly.

More..

Talkandpolitics….

Polls for Tuesday, October 19th, 2010…..CA, CO, WA, KY, PA, WV, WI, MD, OH, FL, OR, ME, MO, NY

From Realclearpolitics….

Tuesday, October 19
RacePollResultsSpread
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaFOX News/POR-RasmussenBoxer 48, Fiorina 44Boxer +4
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownFOX News/POR-RasmussenBrown 48, Whitman 43Brown +5
Colorado Senate – Buck vs. BennetReuters/IpsosBuck 48, Bennet 45Buck +3
Colorado Senate – Buck vs. BennetFOX News/POR-RasmussenBuck 46, Bennet 45Buck +1
Washington Senate – Rossi vs. MurrayPPP (D)Murray 49, Rossi 47Murray +2
Kentucky Senate – Paul vs. ConwayRasmussen ReportsPaul 47, Conway 42Paul +5
Pennsylvania Senate – Sestak vs. ToomeyPPP (D)Toomey 45, Sestak 46Sestak +1
West Virginia Senate Special Election – Raese vs. ManchinFOX News/POR-RasmussenManchin 45, Raese 48Raese +3
Wisconsin Senate – Feingold vs. JohnsonWPR/St. NorbertJohnson 49, Feingold 47Johnson +2
Maryland Governor – Ehrlich vs. O’MalleyGonzales Res.O’Malley 47, Ehrlich 42O’Malley +5
Ohio Governor – Kasich vs. StricklandQuinnipiacKasich 51, Strickland 41Kasich +10
Ohio Governor – Kasich vs. StricklandFOX News/POR-RasmussenKasich 49, Strickland 43Kasich +6
Colorado Governor – Maes vs. Hickenlooper vs. TancredoReuters/IpsosHickenlooper 46, Tancredo 35, Maes 14Hickenlooper +11
Colorado Governor – Maes vs. Hickenlooper vs. TancredoFOX News/POR-RasmussenHickenlooper 45, Tancredo 40, Maes 10Hickenlooper +5
Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Meek vs. CristRasmussen ReportsRubio 43, Crist 32, Meek 20Rubio +11
Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Meek vs. CristSuffolk UniversityRubio 39, Crist 31, Meek 22Rubio +8
Florida Governor – Scott vs. SinkSuffolk UniversitySink 45, Scott 38Sink +7
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaWilson Research (R)Boxer 43, Fiorina 46Fiorina +3
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownWilson Research (R)Brown 44, Whitman 45Whitman +1
Georgia Governor – Deal vs. BarnesInsider AdvantageDeal 45, Barnes 40Deal +5
Oregon Governor – Dudley vs. KitzhaberDaily Kos/PPP (D)Kitzhaber 48, Dudley 47Kitzhaber +1
Wisconsin Governor – Walker vs. BarrettWPR/St. NorbertWalker 50, Barrett 41Walker +9
Maine Governor – LePage vs. Mitchell vs. CutlerPan Atlantic SMSLePage 33, Mitchell 28, Cutler 14LePage +5
Missouri Senate – Blunt vs. CarnahanFOX News/POR-RasmussenBlunt 49, Carnahan 43Blunt +6
New York Senate Special Election – DioGuardi vs. GillibrandNew York TimesGillibrand 50, DioGuardi 25Gillibrand +25
North Carolina Senate – Burr vs. MarshallPPP (D)Burr 48, Marshall 40Burr +8
Michigan Governor – Snyder vs. BerneroRasmussen ReportsSnyder 54, Bernero 34Snyder +20
Maryland Senate – Wargotz vs. MikulskiGonzales Res.Mikulski 55, Wargotz 38Mikulski +17
Nevada Governor – Sandoval vs. ReidRasmussen ReportsSandoval 56, Reid 37Sandoval +19
Oregon Senate – Huffman vs. WydenDaily Kos/PPP (D)Wyden 56, Huffman 40Wyden +16
New York Senate – Townsend vs. SchumerNew York TimesSchumer 61, Townsend 21Schumer +40
Florida 2nd District – Southerland vs. BoydSunshine State News/VSSSoutherland 50, Boyd 38Southerland +12
New York 19th District – Hayworth vs. HallMonmouth UniversityHall 49, Hayworth 48Hall +1
Wisconsin 7th District – Duffy vs. LassaWeAskAmericaDuffy 46, Lassa 39Duffy +7
Maine 1st District – Scontras vs. PingreePan Atlantic SMSPingree 49, Scontras 33Pingree +16
Maine 2nd District – Michaud v. LevesquePan Atlantic SMSMichaud 49, Levesque 29Michaud +20

Polls for Friday, October 15th, 2010….CA, FL, OH, CO, MN, VE, NY, DE, PA, NV, WV, MI, UT, NH, OR

From Realclearpolitics…..

Nice polls, huh?…….A LOT of blue there!

Friday, October 15
Race (Click to Sort)PollResultsSpread
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaReuters/IpsosBoxer 46, Fiorina 45Boxer +1
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownReuters/IpsosBrown 48, Whitman 44Brown +4
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownRasmussen ReportsBrown 50, Whitman 44Brown +6
Florida Governor – Scott vs. SinkSunshine State News/VSSSink 48, Scott 45Sink +3
Connecticut Senate – McMahon vs. BlumenthalRasmussen ReportsBlumenthal 51, McMahon 46Blumenthal +5
Ohio Governor – Kasich vs. StricklandOhio Poll/Univ of Cin.Kasich 51, Strickland 43Kasich +8
Connecticut Governor – Foley vs. MalloyQuinnipiacMalloy 49, Foley 42Malloy +7
Colorado Governor – Maes vs. Hickenlooper vs. TancredoRasmussen ReportsHickenlooper 42, Tancredo 38, Maes 12Hickenlooper +4
Minnesota Governor – Emmer vs. Dayton vs. HornerSurveyUSADayton 42, Emmer 37, Horner 14Dayton +5
Vermont Governor – Dubie vs. ShumlinVPR/Mason-DixonDubie 44, Shumlin 43Dubie +1
New York Senate Special Election – DioGuardi vs. GillibrandSurveyUSAGillibrand 54, DioGuardi 36Gillibrand +18
New York Governor – Paladino vs. CuomoSurveyUSACuomo 59, Paladino 33Cuomo +26
Delaware Senate – O’Donnell vs. CoonsRasmussen ReportsCoons 51, O’Donnell 40Coons +11
Ohio Senate – Portman vs. FisherOhio Poll/Univ of Cin.Portman 58, Fisher 36Portman +22
Pennsylvania Governor – Corbett vs. OnoratoRasmussen ReportsCorbett 54, Onorato 40Corbett +14
Nevada Governor – Sandoval vs. ReidLVRJ/Mason-DixonSandoval 52, Reid 37Sandoval +15
West Virginia Senate Special Election – Raese vs. ManchinMarshall Univ/Orion Strategies (D)Manchin 48, Raese 38Manchin +10
Michigan Governor – Snyder vs. BerneroBaydoun/Foster (D)Snyder 54, Bernero 33Snyder +21
New York Senate – Townsend vs. SchumerSurveyUSASchumer 63, Townsend 30Schumer +33
Vermont Senate – Britton vs. LeahyVPR/Mason-DixonLeahy 62, Britton 27Leahy +35
Utah Senate – Lee vs. GranatoRasmussen ReportsLee 61, Granato 28Lee +33
Virginia 9th District – Griffith vs. BoucherSurveyUSABoucher 51, Griffith 41Boucher +10
New Hampshire 2nd District – Bass vs. KusterWMUR/UNHKuster 43, Bass 36Kuster +7
New Hampshire 1st District – Guinta vs. Shea-PorterWMUR/UNHGuinta 48, Shea-Porter 36Guinta +12
Oregon 4th District – DeFazio v. RobinsonCTA/Wilson Research Strategies (R)DeFazio 48, Robinson 42DeFazio +6

Polls for Tuesday, October 5th, 2010…CA, NV, WV, CT, OH, IL, NY, MO, CO, MD, FL, RI, TX AR, IN, HI, LA, DE, Gen Congress

From Realclearpolitics…….

Tuesday, October 05
RacePollResultsSpread
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaReuters/IpsosBoxer 49, Fiorina 45Boxer +4
California Senate – Boxer vs. FiorinaRasmussen ReportsBoxer 49, Fiorina 45Boxer +4
California Governor – Whitman vs. BrownReuters/IpsosBrown 50, Whitman 43Brown +7
Nevada Senate – Angle vs. ReidFOX News/POR-RasmussenReid 46, Angle 49Angle +3
West Virginia Senate Special Election – Raese vs. ManchinFOX News/POR-RasmussenRaese 48, Manchin 43Raese +5
Connecticut Senate – McMahon vs. BlumenthalFOX News/POR-RasmussenBlumenthal 52, McMahon 42Blumenthal +10
Connecticut Senate – McMahon vs. BlumenthalCT Capitol Report/MRGBlumenthal 52, McMahon 45Blumenthal +7
Ohio Governor – Kasich vs. StricklandQuinnipiacKasich 50, Strickland 41Kasich +9
Ohio Governor – Kasich vs. StricklandFOX News/POR-RasmussenKasich 49, Strickland 43Kasich +6
Illinois Senate – Giannoulias vs. KirkRasmussen ReportsKirk 45, Giannoulias 41Kirk +4
New York Governor – Paladino vs. CuomoSienaCuomo 56, Paladino 32Cuomo +24
New York Governor – Paladino vs. CuomoPPP (D)Cuomo 53, Paladino 38Cuomo +15
Missouri Senate – Blunt vs. CarnahanFOX News/POR-RasmussenBlunt 50, Carnahan 42Blunt +8
Colorado Senate – Buck vs. BennetRasmussen ReportsBuck 50, Bennet 45Buck +5
Colorado Senate – Buck vs. BennetPPP (D)Buck 45, Bennet 46Bennet +1
Maryland Governor – Ehrlich vs. O’MalleyRasmussen ReportsO’Malley 49, Ehrlich 41O’Malley +8
Pennsylvania Senate – Sestak vs. ToomeyMorning CallToomey 45, Sestak 38Toomey +7
Pennsylvania Governor – Corbett vs. OnoratoMorning CallCorbett 47, Onorato 36Corbett +11
Ohio Senate – Portman vs. FisherFOX News/POR-RasmussenPortman 53, Fisher 37Portman +16
Florida Governor – Scott vs. SinkSunshine State News/VSSScott 44, Sink 42Scott +2
Florida Governor – Scott vs. SinkFL CoC/POS (R)Scott 46, Sink 42Scott +4
Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Meek vs. CristFL CoC/POS (R)Rubio 40, Crist 33, Meek 16Rubio +7
Rhode Island Governor – Chafee vs. Caprio vs. RobitailleBrown UniversityCaprio 30, Chafee 23, Robitaille 14Caprio +7
Connecticut Governor – Foley vs. MalloyFOX News/POR-RasmussenMalloy 47, Foley 41Malloy +6
Connecticut Governor – Foley vs. MalloyCT Capitol Report/MRGMalloy 48, Foley 45Malloy +3
Texas Governor – Perry vs. WhiteWFAA/BeloPerry 50, White 36Perry +14
Arizona Governor – Brewer vs. GoddardRasmussen ReportsBrewer 55, Goddard 39Brewer +16
Indiana Senate – Coats vs. EllsworthWISH-TV/EPIC-MRACoats 51, Ellsworth 33Coats +18
Hawaii 1st District – Djou vs. HanabusaDaily Kos/PPP (D)Hanabusa 48, Djou 47Hanabusa +1
Louisiana 2nd District – Cao vs. RichmondDaily Kos/PPP (D)Richmond 49, Cao 38Richmond +11
Rhode Island 1st District – Loughlin vs. CicillineBrown UniversityCicilline 39, Loughlin 21Cicilline +18
Delaware At-Large – Carney vs. UrquhartFairleigh DickinsonCarney 51, Urquhart 36Carney +15
Generic Congressional VoteABC News/Wash PostRepublicans 49, Democrats 43Republicans +6