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2020 Politico Democratic Presidential choices….May 2017

It’s NEVER tooooo Early  to Early do start doing Democratic wish lists for the nomination….

But actually the serious ones HAVE to be getting their ducks in a row and setting up scheduled trips, position papers and honing their speeches…..Oh, and aiming for running money….

Most pundits would have Sanders and Warren on the top of their list but this Dog has keep his top as Cory Booker….

The lists will have on them those that will not be serious contenders , but will be happy to have been mentioned anyways…


I can already hear your complaints: It’s too early to talk about the 2020 presidential primaries! But the prospective candidates don’t think so. Joe Biden’s teasing. Senators and governors are road testing. And with the Trump presidency perpetually mired in scandal, no one on the Democratic bench is hesitating.

The simple truth, as depressing as it might sound to the survivors of 2016, is that anyone who wants to be president must make moves now. Beyond building a network of donors and volunteers, over the next 3½ years, those hoping to make it to the White House need to sell themselves to primary voters as leaders. Leaders of principle. Leaders on issues. Leaders in partisan warfare. Leaders in building consensus.

How can they do that? Some have likened past primaries to an NCAA basketball tournament bracket, with candidates trying to elbow out competitors with similar bases of support. But with so much unsettled about the Democratic Party’s ideological future, in the wake of 2016’s bitter primary and shocking general election defeat, we can’t yet narrow the camps into four easily definable categories.

Instead of brackets, think of this preliminary phase of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary as a mad scramble to earn “badges” of distinction. With every badge, presidential aspirants win points from primary voters casting about for leaders they trust to both fight for what they believe in, and fight to win.

What badges are potential Democrats trying to earn, and who is best positioned to claim each prize? Here is how the nascent field is shaping up…..


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Day 3 @ the Democratic Presidential Nomination Convention…

… from twitter….

POLITICO ‏@politico
Philadelphia veered from a pro-@HillaryClinton pep rally to a @realDonaldTrump takedown http://politi.co/2arwoHN

Chuck Todd ‏@chucktodd
A truly emotional moment in this arena. Gabby Giffords had the entire place paying attn. She has really made great strides in her recovery.

POLITICO ‏@politico
Mother of Orlando shooting victim speaks out in support of @HillaryClinton http://politi.co/2arwwHA

POLITICO ‏@politico
Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta: “This is no time to gamble with our future.”

Chuck Todd ‏@chucktodd
It appears some delegates started a “no more war” chant in the middle of Panetta’s speech. Others tried to drown out with cheers and jeers

POLITICO ‏@politico
Panetta: “@HillaryClinton is the single most experienced and prepared person that has ever run for president.”

Chris Cillizza ‏@TheFix
Biden’s speech is very, very good. Behind Michelle O but in front of everyone else including Bill Clinton.Ezra KleinVerified account

So Joe Biden would’ve been extremely good at running against Donald Trump.

Jared Rizzi ‏@JaredRizzi Philadelphia, PA
VP Biden: “We are Americans! We are second to no one! And we own the finish line!” #demsinphilly

Chris Cillizza ‏@TheFix
Tim Kaine is an able, competent politician. But, man, after that Biden speech and the expectation of the Obama speech, he is overshadowed.

“I humbly accept my party’s nomination,” says @timkaine. Adding that “I never expected to be here.” #DemsInPhilly

“We should all feel the bern and not want to get burned by that other guy.” -@timkaine #DemsInPhilly

The Boston Globe ‏@BostonGlobe
“If you’re looking for that party of Lincoln, we have a home for you here” -@TimKaine. http://bit.ly/2actjt3

Chris Cillizza ‏@TheFix View translation
Tim Kaine speaks Spanish?!?!?!

POLITICO ‏@politico
Kaine: “As he’s serving our nation abroad, I trust Hillary Clinton with our son’s life.

“The Boston Globe ‏@BostonGlobe
Kaine: “You cannot believe one word that comes out of Donald Trump’s mouth” #DemsinPhilly

Convention Radio ‏@SXMPOTUS
The crowd begins a “not one word” chant when it comes to how much they believe Donald Trump #DemsInPhilly

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Political Roundup for January 7, 2016…Trump = Putin…RRH Elections…


Biden:  Vice President Joe Biden regrets not running for president every day, but admits it was the right decision for himself and his family.  Sadly I wish he ran as it would have sucked up some of the media’s non-stop coverage of Trump.

Cruz:  Senator Ted Cruz is pushing back hard on questions regarding whether he is capable of being elected president due to being born to US citizens living in Calgary, Alberta at the time.  Donald Trump brought this issue into the forefront recently and others have essentially started forming the Republican version of the PUMA movement that showed a lot of bluster towards President Obama in 2008, but did not have an impact.

Cruz-McCain: Senator John McCain, a strong enemy of Senator Cruz, has jumped on the trolling bandwagon.  It is quite comical to see McCain jump into the fray on this issue especially seeing people raised the same questions about his birth in the Panama Canal Zone.

Trump:  The New York Times looks at what is driving Donald Trump’s candidacy and they essentially come to the pretty reasonable conclusion that his supporters want their own authoritarian strongman in a society they perceive as disordered and lawless.  Essentially they want their own Putin.

Bush 43:  Bloomberg highlights supposed efforts in the works to bring out former President George W. Bush as a means of stopping Donald Trump.  I am not sure if anything would help his candidacy more than having the failed administration of Bush 43 on showcase….


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Presidential Polls…Oct. 20, 2015…..

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination


Trump 27, Carson 22, Rubio 8, Cruz 4, Bush 8, Fiorina 4, Huckabee 5, Paul 5, Christie 4, Kasich 3, Santorum 2, Jindal 0, Graham 1, Pataki 0 Trump +5
2016 Republican Presidential Nomination


Trump 25, Carson 22, Rubio 13, Cruz 9, Bush 8, Fiorina 7, Huckabee 3, Paul 2, Christie 1, Kasich 3, Santorum 0, Jindal 0, Graham 0, Pataki 0 Trump +3
2016 Republican Presidential Nomination


Trump 28, Carson 18, Rubio 6, Cruz 10, Bush 5, Fiorina 6, Huckabee 4, Paul 4, Christie 3, Kasich 1, Santorum 0, Jindal 1, Graham 1, Pataki 0 Trump +10
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination


Clinton 49, Sanders 29, Biden 15, Webb 2, O’Malley 1, Chafee 0 Clinton +20
2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination

ABC/Wash Post

Clinton 54, Sanders 23, Biden 16, Webb 1, O’Malley 1, Chafee 0 Clinton +31

…from Real Clear Politics…..

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Political Roundup for October 16, 2015…Biden filling dates…RRH Elections…


Biden: How late can Biden enter the 2016 race? The first state filling deadline is Alabama’s (60 delegates) on November 6th. After that it is Arkansas (November 9), New Hampshire (November 20), and Florida (November 30). If Biden still hasn’t entered by the end of November, he’ll have given up on nearly 400 delegates. Eleven state deadlines fall in December so if he doesn’t enter the race by the end of the year Biden will have forfeited more than 1,000 delegates. The major filing deadline cutoff is January. An addition 15 states have January filing deadlines and any candidate who has not filed by January 15th will have forfeited 2,232 delegates, or about the number needed to become the nominee.

Paul: Sen. Rand Paul released a memo explaining why he is not dropping out of the presidential campaign. Having to release a memo explaining why you are not dropping out is generally not thought of as a sign of strength.

Ventura: Former Minnesota governor and wrestling great Jesse Ventura (I) hints at wanting to run for President as a Libertarian. While I am sure Ventura loves the attention his hypothetical is giving him most observers feel that the ideological based Libertarian Party would most likely decline Ventura’s offer to be their candidate. the major cutoff when it comes to filing deadlines is January, when another 15 states require candidates to register. According to an analysis by the Brookings Institution, by the middle of the month an undeclared candidate will have forfeited 2,232 delegates, or about the number needed to become the nominee.

Democrat Debate: The Democrat debate drew about 15.3 million viewers. An average of 11% of U.S. households with televisions turned in to the event, translating into a 11.2 household rating. The first two GOP debates garnered 25 million viewers and 23 million viewers…..


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First Democratic Presidential Primary Debate..After Report

Who Won?


Hillary Clinton….Hands Down…

She was Strong, Prepared and On her Game ….

She gave Sanders a rough time on Guns…

She was loose and comfortable most of the night….

Her BIGGEST  ‘Get’?

She was able to go Directly at the emails and Benghazi issues that has dogged her for months…

She had a some rough sailing on Wall Street…

But for me?

She showed people that she is up for being the Democratic nominee…

With all that?

Bernie Sanders had a good night also…

Not as good and polished as Hillary…

But he had no falls….

And he actually helped out Hillary by ridiculing the media focus the Clinton email issue…

His strong point with Democrats from the left will be his Wall Street ‘take no prisoners’ approach…

Lincoln Chaffe ‘s attempt to play off making a vote on his first day in the Senate against Glass-Steagell

O’Malley came across as canned in stiff

Webb was there as the ole Marine , which won’t play at all for most of the Democratic base…

Anderson Cooper was moving fast and the other questioners really where just there…

Sanders, Chaffe and O’Malley  worked the Spin Room afterwards for CNN…Hillary didn’t have to….

Oh, and Joe Biden wasn’t mentioned …..

Not Once…..

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Political Roundup for October 9, 2015…Fiorina has Koch Bros Support…RRH Elections


Hillary: Hillary Clinton’s private email server was repeatedly hit by attempted cyberattacks originating in China, South Korea and Germany in 2014. At least 5 attacks occurred and were blocked in October 2013. Clinton’s server operated without its threat monitoring protection system between June and October 2013. Clinton has not said what, if any, firewall or threat protection was used on her email server before June 2013. The FBI is investigating whether national security was compromised by Clinton’s unauthorized email arrangement.

Biden: Vice President Joe Biden himself leaked word to The New York Times’ columnist Maureen Dowd in August that his late son’s dying wish was for him to launch one last bid for President. It was that column that largely jumpstarted speculation that the 72 year old Biden would run for President.

Trump: Trump supporters dont do grammar good. Grammarly, a writing-enhancement website, looked at comments by the hopefuls’ supporters on the candidates’ official Facebook pages to find out who was making the most mistakes and who was making the fewest. Trump supporters fared the worst averaging 12.6 mistakes per 100 words.

Fiorina: The Koch brothers are adding Carly Fiorina to the list of GOP presidential candidates they could support. The Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce, an umbrella organization that funds many conservative groups backed by Charles and David Koch, announced that Fiorina will be one of five candidates it backs. The group had previously backed Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker before he dropped out of the race in September. Fiorina will join Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio on their list of backed candidates. This could open access to a new large pool of campaign funding for Fiorina….


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2016 Presidential Primary Q Polls Oct 7 and Oct 8, 2015….California, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania…

Donald Trump’s numbers ARE receding and in some of the polls Joe Biden has jumped past Bernie Sanders….Hillary Clinton is ahead in ALL the polled states below….

October 8, 2015

California Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 17, Carson 15, Fiorina 13, Rubio 10, Bush 8, Cruz 6, Paul 5, Huckabee 3, Kasich 2, Christie 2, Santorum 1, Jindal 0, Graham 1, Walker


October 7, 2015….

Florida Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 28, Carson 16, Bush 12, Rubio 14, Fiorina 7, Cruz 6, Kasich 2, Huckabee 1, Christie 1, Walker, Paul 2, Jindal 0, Santorum 0, Graham 0

Florida Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 43, Biden 19, Sanders 19, O’Malley 0, Chafee 0, Webb 0, Lessig 0 Clinton +24

Ohio Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 23, Carson 18, Kasich 13, Cruz 11, Fiorina 10, Rubio 7, Bush 4, Paul 3, Huckabee 2, Christie 1, Santorum 0, Graham 0, Walker, Perry

Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 40, Biden 21, Sanders 19, Lessig 1, O’Malley 0, Webb 0, Chafee 0

Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 23, Carson 17, Rubio 12, Bush 4, Fiorina 8, Cruz 6, Christie 5, Kasich 3, Huckabee 4, Santorum 2, Paul 1, Jindal 1, Pataki 1, Graham 0, Walker

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 36, Biden 25, Sanders 19, O’Malley 1, Webb 1, Lessig 1, Chafee 0

California Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 40, Sanders 31, Biden 15, O’Malley, Webb, Chafee

Maryland Democratic Presidential Primary

Goucher College

Clinton 43, Biden 23, Sanders 17, O’Malley 2, Webb 2, Chafee 0


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Carson LEADS Trump in Louisanna 10/2/15 Primary Poll…

Carson’s lead is above the MOE…..

Hillary has Biden following her by 37% pts and Sandets by 50% its…..

Louisiana Republican Presidential Primary


Carson 23, Trump 19, Bush 10, Rubio 9, Fiorina 7, Cruz 6, Huckabee 4, Jindal 3, Kasich 3, Christie 2, Paul 0, Santorum 0, Walker

Louisiana Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 57, Biden 22, Sanders 7, O’Malley 2, Webb 1, Chafee 0


800 registered voters….MOE 3.6%

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Political Roundup For October 1, 2015…Number of Republican Guys to be cut back…Debate RRH Elections…

Presidential News:

Michigan:  Ok, so Donald Trump is outpolling Jeb Bush in Michigan.  It’s only 5 points, but those are big points to make up.  The difference is a 42-42 tie between Clinton and Trump, compared to a 42-37 lead for Clinton over Bush.

Biden:  The Clinton campaign is subtly going after Biden already, comparing the former Secretary of State in a positive light to the Vice President.  Honestly folks, Biden and Clinton are the same candidates, with practically identical weaknesses on gaffes, Iraq, and the financial services industry.  Does no one else see very little difference between them?  I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.

Bush:  Despite the recent negative polling numbers, Bush got several big endorsements in Massachusetts, including former Governor Bill Weld.

Money:  Clinton raised $28 million.  Sanders raised $26 million, much of it from small donors.  Ben Carson raised $20 million, which is pretty good in a 15-way field.

Debates:  The newest rules announcement for the GOP debates is that candidates must be polling at an average of 3% (really, 2.5%) in order to be invited to the main stage in the debate, and at least 1% for an invitation to the kiddie table debate.  Depending on the polling sample used, this could eliminate at least Rand Paul, and possible Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, and John Kasich for the main stage….


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Trump…Carson..Rubio…Clinton…Sanders…Biden…FOX 2/23/15 Poll…

Second poll that has Trump’s Presidential numbers dropping to the mid-20’s down from the 30% range…(He’s still the leader)

This one has Rubio in rising to 3rd place for the Republicans….

On the Democratic side?

Hillary still with a good lead over the other two guys….

The 2016 Republican Presidential Primary….

Trump 26, Carson 18, Rubio 9, Fiorina 9, Bush 7, Cruz 8, Huckabee 3, Paul 2, Kasich 4, Christie 5, Walker, Perry, Santorum 0, Pataki 1, Jindal 0

The 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary….

Clinton 44, Sanders 30, Biden 18, O’Malley 2, Webb 1, Chafee 0


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Clinton…Biden…Sanders….9/23/15 Poll…

New Bloomberg Poll finds all the Joe Biden talk elevating him in the 2016 Democratic Democratic primary race….

Hillary Clinton still has a good lead….

Clinton 33, Sanders 24, Biden 25, Webb 2, O’Malley 1, Chafee 0….


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Political Roundup for September 22, 2015…Walker comeback thru brokered Convention?…RRH Elections

Walker:  Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (R) suspended his presidential campaign yesterday after the collapse of his campaign over the last few months.  Walker started the race seen as a candidate who could bridge the establishment and grassroots divide, but failed to make anyone happy in the end.

More Walker:  Walker supporters are floating around the asinine idea that Walker could be nominated through a brokered convention.  Considering the source, Buzzfeed, I am not sure why I am posting this other than to laugh at some people actually thinking this is even remotely plausible.  While we are at it, why not run Mitt Romney at a brokered convention?

Clinton/Biden:  Democratic insiders increasingly believe that Vice President Joe Biden (D) will run for the Democratic nomination.  Biden’s entry into the race will likely lead to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s (D) anemic campaign to hemorrhage further support as Clinton has barely been able to contain losing support to insurgent socialist Senator Bernie Sanders (Socialist).  It is far from clear if Clinton has the ability to stop Biden if he enters or not at this point.

More Clinton / Biden:  Clinton operatives might resurrect the ghosts of the nomination of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and use them against Biden.  Biden ran the hearings where Republicans justifiably destroyed the credibility of Anita Hill.  This reference really highlights how old and career politician driven the Democratic Party has become.  Almost 40% of Americans were not even old enough to remember who Anita Hill was let alone what Biden did or did not do!

Christie:  The Washington Post has a borderline comical story on how the New Jersey National Guard is ran like everything else in New Jersey with mafia style cronyism.  Christie’s first two picks to lead the New Jersey National Guard had issues stemming from an affair and a weight problem respectively.  Come on Washington Post, you act like you are that surprised this occurs in New Jersey!….


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Clinton/Trump Tie…New CNN Poll….

Lets see…

In the CNN poll Hillary LEADS Sanders by 10% pts…

And Biden by 17% pts….

Let’s remember these Dem’s have to beat her first, right?

In addition?

Trump and Carson most here agree have LESS than a 50% chance to even beat their own field let alone Hillary Clinton….

Joe Biden is still agonizing over mounting a run and the cut-off dates for primaries are fast approaching as Hillary and others get hard into the ground work required for a run…

So lets just keep a little perspective here….

The Poll is a CNN/ORC one….

Done last week….Sept 4  – 8, 2015….

1,012 respondents….

Here’s the link.

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Political Roundup For August 25, 2015…Biden/Warren ticket?…RRH Elections

Presidential News:

Biden:  By now everyone knows that Vice President Biden met with Senator Elizabeth Warren for lunch over the weekend.  But what if the meeting wasn’t to inquire about her endorsement and support, but instead about something else:  whether she’d consider running on a ticket with him.  Announcing a running mate before the primary season is certainly an oddity, but in this instance, possibly a wise move.  If Biden and Warren could box out both the Hillary and Sanders factions early, they’d have a fairly straight shot to the nomination.

Trump:  The state parties in North Carolina and Virginia are considering adding a loyalty oath to the qualification process for the primary ballot, requiring each candidate to pledge support for  the eventual nominee.  Clearly the effort is focused at Trump, who publicly refused to make such an oath during the first GOP debate.

Bush:  The former Florida Governor indelicately referred to his use of the term “anchor babies” as being “more related to Asian people,” and not Hispanics.  While Bush was almost certainly referring to a few well-known instances of birth tourism involving Chinese mothers traveling to the U.S. for delivery, he certainly could have phrased his remarks better.

Kasich:  Kasich continues to gain in New Hampshire, and PPP tweets that he’s one of only 3 candidates in double digits in their most recent poll there; the other two being Trump and Fiorina.  If Kasich carries New Hampshire, that will go a long way into making him the anti-Trump next February.

Walker/Trump:  I don’t know if I completely believe that Governor Walker’s fundraiser might jump ship to join Trump’s campaign, but the rumor certainly doesn’t say much about Walker’s faltering campaign….


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Larry Sabato’s Democratic and Republican Primary lists 8/20/15…

Table 1: Crystal Ball rankings of 2016 Democratic presidential primary field


First Tier: The Undisputed Frontrunner
Candidate Key Primary Advantages Key Primary Disadvantages
Hillary Clinton
Ex-Secretary of State
•Very popular within party, more so than in ’08
•Pro-Iraq War vote fading in importance
•Woman: chance to make history
•Overwhelming support from party leaders, at least for now
•Ran unfocused, too-many-cooks ’08 campaign; could make similar mistakes in ’16
•Keeping Bill in check — and on the porch
•How serious is email scandal?
Second Tier: The Emerging Challenger
Bernie Sanders
Senator (Ind.),
•Showing polling strength in early states
•Small-donor fundraising potential
•Drawing big crowds
•Outsider in what is very much an insider process
•Little appeal to nonwhite voters
•Big crowds don’t predict wins
Third Tier: The Others
Martin O’Malley
Ex-Governor, MD
•Liberal record and policy achievements •Baltimore baggage
•Candidacy largely invisible so far
Jim Webb
Ex-Senator, VA
•Unique populist niche •Invisible candidacy, not in line with base of party
Lincoln Chafee
•Voted against Iraq war •Left office very unpopular
•No base of support in party, nationally unknown
The Wild Card
Joe Biden
Vice President
•Vast experience
•VP bully pulpit
•Gaffe machine
•Party establishment with Clinton, at least for now


Table 1: Crystal Ball rankings of 2016 Republican presidential primary field


First Tier: The Real Contenders
Candidate Key Primary Advantages Key Primary Disadvantages
Jeb Bush
Ex-Governor, FL
•Conservative gubernatorial resume
•National Bush money and organization, has already raised huge sums
•Personifies establishment, which typically produces GOP nominees
•Bush fatigue is real — Jeb cannot avoid George W.’s negatives
•Support for Common Core and immigration reform
•Personifies establishment, which grassroots loathes
Scott Walker
Governor, WI
•Heroic conservative credentials
•Checks boxes for many wings of party
•Lack of polish, too-conservative positions could hurt him with party leaders worried about electability
•Does lack of college degree matter?
Marco Rubio
Senator, FL
•Dynamic speaker and politician
•Potential appeal to party insiders & outsiders, plus Hispanics
•Generational contrast with Jeb…& Hillary
•Went left on immigration, hurt him with base
•Surprisingly anonymous for seeming top-tier contender
•Blocked by Bush in home state?
Ted Cruz
Senator, TX
•Dynamic debater & canny, often underestimated politician
•Anti-establishment nature plays well with base
•Strong early fundraising
•Too extreme?
•Disliked on both sides of the Senate aisle
•Strong Tea Party support ensures establishment resistance to candidacy
John Kasich
Governor, OH
•Long moderate-conservative record plus two terms as swing-state Ohio governor
•Could be fallback for GOP establishment forces
•Potential New Hampshire appeal
•Supported Medicaid expansion, backs Common Core — shares some of Bush’s liabilities but lacks Jeb’s immense funding
•Unscripted style can lead to unforced errors
•Jon Huntsman 2.0?


Notice who’s fmissing from the Republican first tier?



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