Tag Archives: 2018 US Senate Midterm elections

FiveThirtyEight rates Democrats ‘s chances of a Senate majority at 35% to 40%….

Things HAVE improved for Democrats from just a little while ago…

There are several interesting things going on here:

  • The “toss-ups” aren’t really toss-ups. The four races that were originally rated as pure toss-ups — Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada — now rate as having a two-in-three chance of going for Democrats instead.
  • Republicans have fewer targets. Seemingly competitive Midwestern states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, where there are potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbents, become real long shots for Republicans.
  • And Democrats have more targets. The blue team has some realistic prospects of picking up Republican seats beyond their primary targets of Arizona and Nevada, with Tennessee or a second seat opening up in Arizona being the most likely possibilities.

So this is what a true 50-50 battle for the Senate would look like — but are these revised ratings realistic? You’d have to go through on a case-by-case basis. As I mentioned, for instance, I’d have no problem with treating Arizona as leaning Democratic. And the revised ratings for some of the Democratic incumbents in purple states, such as Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin and Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, seem more realistic than the original ones to me; they shouldn’t be all that vulnerable in this sort of political climate. But I’m not sure I buy that Democrats have a 42 percent chance of a pickup in Tennessee or that McCaskill is a two-to-one favorite in Missouri, where Republicans are fielding some strong opponents.

Personally, I’d probably split the difference between the macro and the micro views and put Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate somewhere in the range of 35 percent to 40 percent. That’s a lot better for Democrats than it was before Alabama, and it’s higher than it probably “should” be given how favorable the Senate map is for Republicans. But it’s still a fairly steep hill to climb….


Could Democrats actually have Senate Majority chances?

Politico does a piece on a Democrats quiet hopes thatb they could actually squeak out enough wins next November to get a narrow majority in the US Senate….

In Reality?….The chances are VERY SLIM….

But hope springs eternal and ya never know with Trump and Bannon  running also against Senate Republican lawmakers what could happen…

Image result for chuck schumer

……Senate Democrats, once all but resigned to staying in the minority until at least 2020, say the door to retaking the chamber in next year’s midterms has cracked — just barely — if everything breaks their way. And instead of boasting about how many more seats they’re about to pick up, Republicans are now pondering the once-unthinkable possibility of losing the Senate, and with it, the ability to confirm President Donald Trump’s nominees.

While Republicans have been locked in bruising internal battles all year, legislatively and in GOP primaries, Senate Democrats in recent days scored a prized recruit in Arizona and saw a Republican titan in Tennessee, Bob Corker, retire. Public polls in the Alabama Senate race have shown Democrat Doug Jones within single digits of bomb-throwing Republican Roy Moore — forcing national Democrats to wrestle with whether to spend money in one of the most conservative states in the nation.

Democratic senators are loath to boast too publicly about their recent spate of political fortune. But they’re starting to see a path, however narrow, that hadn’t existed before.


The 2018 map nonetheless heavily favors Republicans, who are defending just eight seats next fall compared to 25 for Senate Democrats. For Democrats to take the majority, they would have to successfully defend all their incumbents in conservative territory while picking up Nevada, Arizona and then a deep-red state such as Alabama, Tennessee or Texas….