Tag Archives: 2018 US House Races

Do Democrats need Trump voters for next years Midterm Elections?

Who needs Trump voters? Not Democrats.

Stop me if you’ve seen a headline (or five) that proclaims something along the lines of: “Most Trump voters still support Trump.” Typically, the article includes quotes from Trump voters in Pennsylvania or Michigan. Sometimes it revolves around polling showing people don’t “regret” voting for Trump. The takeaway is usually: Trump still has the support of his base, which means Democrats haven’t cracked the Trump nut yet.

But here’s the thing: Democrats don’t need to crack that nut by 2018; Trump can hang on to most — if not all — of his base, and Democrats could still clean up in the midterm elections…

Let’s start with the basic fact that Trump won just 45.9 percent of the vote in 2016. That doesn’t make his victory any less legitimate — winning (the Electoral College) with a plurality rather than a majority is still winning — but Trump has a smaller base than every president elected since 1972, except for Bill Clinton in 1992. Trump voters are not a majority.

More importantly for the sake of 2018, they don’t represent the majority of voters in the majority of congressional districts. Trump won more than 50 percent in 205 of 435 districts. If House Republicans won every district where Trump won a majority in 2016 but lost every other one, Democrats would control 230 seats. Among seats won by a Republican in 2016, Trump fell short of a majority in 40 districts. Democrats need to win only 24 of those to win control of the House.

As Enten notes at the beginning of his article, recent polling shows Trump voters still overwhelmingly support Trump. And Enten’s review of the last eight midterm elections shows the GOP will hold them, because Trump voters are rank and file GOP…..

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Will Democrats ride a “Wave’ Election to a House Majority next year?

Charlie Cook keeps thinking that….

House Re­pub­lic­ans were caught on the horns of a di­lemma. If they didn’t pass a bill that ef­fect­ively re­pealed and re­placed Obama­care, they would either look in­ef­fec­tu­al or in de­fi­ance of their con­ser­vat­ive base. But to pass a bill with no Demo­crat­ic sup­port in a nar­rowly di­vided House, they would need sup­port of the vast ma­jor­ity of the con­ser­vat­ive Free­dom Caucus, which would mean a bill that would nev­er sur­vive in the Sen­ate, where mem­bers have sub­stan­tially more di­verse con­stitu­en­cies.

Bey­ond those factors, they faced a po­ten­tial back­lash from Amer­ic­ans who either would be ad­versely af­fected by the bill or fear that they would. So the Re­pub­lic­ans were forced to pick their pois­on: Either look in­com­pet­ent or thumb their nose at their base. They chose to side with their base. Many mod­er­ate and swing-dis­trict Re­pub­lic­ans hope that the Sen­ate will sub­stan­tially tone down the le­gis­la­tion and that the Free­dom Caucus will feel pres­sured to go along with a much more meas­ured bill after a joint Sen­ate-House con­fer­ence com­mit­tee re­con­ciles the two ver­sions….

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….the kind of wave that in past dec­ades might have res­ul­ted in 40- to 65-seat losses might end up as a 20- to 30-seat loss. The ma­gic num­ber in 2018 is 24. That would give the Demo­crats con­trol of the House….

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Chaffetz is out for reelection in 2018

The strident Utah Republican House memebers won’t run for re-election…

Image result for chaffetz

House Oversight Chairman Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) will not run for reelection in 2018, he announced on Facebook Wednesday.

“After long consultation with my family and prayerful consideration, I have decided I will not be a candidate for any office in 2018,” he wrote. “I have made a personal decision to return to the private sector.”

Source…Politico

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Democrats signing up 2018 House candidates….

A LOT of them are militar veterans with some business experience….

Democrats are looking to turn the Donald Trump resistance movement into an army of candidates to try to take back the House in 2018.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee leaders have already met with 255 potential candidates across 64 districts, convinced that the shifting political environment has opened new opportunities that they’ll chase in next year’s midterms.

A rough profile of their ideal candidate has started to emerge: veterans, preferably with small business experience too. They’d like as many of them to be women or people who’ve never run for office before — and having young children helps.

With the 2018 Senate map tilted heavily in Republicans’ favor, House races may prove the first real test for how much 2016 was a realignment election, and how much Democrats are able to turn the energy in the streets against President Donald Trump into actually winning races.

“We are going to be on offense, we are going to take this fight to the American people,” said DCCC Chair Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) last week at an event taking a victory lap over the defeat of Obamacare repeal. It was held to tout a poll showing how badly the bill played in 54 swing districts.

While winning the majority would require a tidal wave in 2018, Democratic recruiters are giddy over the surge in energy and interest among potential candidates, and they are starting the process earlier than ever…..

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Democrats COULD do a bit better in the House than everyone thinks in 2018…Rothenberg

History , Donald Trump and the Republicans ‘owning’ most things Obama may work to the Democrats advantage more than most thing says politcal pundit Stu Roetenberg……

The combination of few competitive districts, polls in individual districts showing Republicans well positioned, and the Democrats’ narrow advantage in the national “generic ballot test” made it clear throughout September and October that the House would not flip without a dramatic, last-minute shift in public opinion. That shift, of course, never occurred, and Donald Trump’s victory further limited Democratic congressional gains to a mere six seats.

Those small gains mean that Democrats will need to net 24 seats in 2018 to take back the House, a daunting task considering the small number of Republicans sitting in Democratic districts and the paucity of competitive districts.

First, let’s start with the good news for Democrats — since they need some good news.

The party not holding the White House has gained seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections. That trend isn’t a mere coincidence. It follows from the fact that a midterm is almost always a referendum on the incumbent president — and the most disappointed and dissatisfied voters tend to turn out during midterms to send their message of disapproval about the president and his party…

Obviously, the outlook for the House in 2018 depends on many factors, including Democratic recruiting and the two parties’ fundraising. But the most important factor by far is how well Donald Trump performs in the White House and how satisfied or dissatisfied voters are when the 2018 midterm balloting rolls around…..

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