Tag Archives: 2018 Midterm Elections

Sabato’s updated House rating changes favor Democrats next year

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato’s Crystal Ball gives his sites latest look at next years House midterm races….

He has 25 changes…..

Most help the Democrats who could be getting a wave to retake the majority in the House of Representatives and return Nancy Pelosi to the Speakership….Something that would slam a break on the Grand Ole Parties activities….

The consensus among most political pundits is that Democrats WILL achieve significant House gains next year…

And these factor’s…..

Trump has historically low approval ratings….

The generic ballot polls strongly favor Democrats over Republicans in House races…

The majority held Congress is pushing for unpopular legislation about healthcare, taxes and immigration…

Democrats seem to be making a comeback in locals and state races…

In the aftermath of the 2014 midterm election, when the party that didn’t hold the White House (the Republicans) gained ground in the House for the 36th time in 39 midterms since the Civil War, I wrote the following in the Center for Politics’ postmortem on the election, The Surge:

Practically speaking, though, House Democrats might have to root for the other party in the 2016 presidential race. Why? Because given what we know about midterm elections almost always going against the president’s party in the House, perhaps the next best chance for the Democrats to win the House will be in 2018 — if a Republican is in the White House.

We didn’t see many House Democrats rooting for Donald Trump to win the general election in 2016, but the simple fact of his election made a Democratic House takeover much more likely in the 2018 midterm just because of the longstanding trend for the presidential party to lose ground in the House. The electorate often uses the midterm to put a check on the executive, particularly if that executive is unpopular. “The midterm election pattern,” writes Andrew Busch in his study of midterm elections, Horses in Midstream, “virtually guarantees that the president’s party will be hurt at regular intervals. The extent of that damage may vary considerably, but the fact of it rarely does.”

We know we’ve been a broken record on the point of the presidential party midterm penalty, but it is so well-established that it merits frequent mention. Obviously, the world changed considerably when President Trump won the White House, and the political burden of holding the presidency shifted from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party when that happened.

We’re a little bit past the halfway point between the last national election, in 2016, and the next national election, in 2018. In that time, the Democrats’ chances of winning the House have only seemed to rise, based on a number of indicators. Those are….

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The Grand Ole’ Party of Donald Trump and Roy Moore….

Image result for trump/roy moore

Less than year from now all of the Republicans in the US House and some  of them in the US Senate will stand before the voters and ask for their support…

They are the majority party in the House and the Senate,,,,

Their collective apporval rate is less than 15%……

Donald Trump, the leader of the GOP is at around 35%…..

With a President who has shown he doesn’t REALLY have any idea haow the government works, and is working with Congress to either take it apart or just plain ignore it and a perty that is working day and night to rob the poor and middle class to pay the rich?

Will voters turn out a vote for more of the same in next years midterm elections , or will they stay at home and let the Trump faithful carry next years elections?

Could the Republican party be eating itself out of power?

“We are in trouble as a party if we continue to follow both Roy Moore and Donald Trump.”

That was Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) Monday, doubling down on something he said on a hot mic last weekend: That if the Republican Party becomes “the party of Roy Moore and Donald Trump, we are toast.”

What Flake said publicly is what Republican leaders are stressing over privately. They fear Trump is taking the party in a direction that could make it unelectable.

Of course, Trump would argue that he’s taking the party in the right direction.

What’s not up for debate is that, for better or for worse, the ground the GOP rests upon is shifting underneath Republicans’ feet, and the battle is on for which side will ultimately lay claim to it.

Here are five ways that battle is manifesting right now:

1. Primaries, primaries, primaries: Senate Republicans should have a lot of pickup opportunities in next year’s midterm elections, when 10 Senate Democrats are up for reelection in states that Trump won in 2016.

But Republicans first have to get through competitive primaries in nearly every state, including for seats the GOP already holds. Fighting each other for seats was not in the establishment’s game plan.

Some of these competitive primaries came into being by Trump’s gravitational pull. In the swing-state of Nevada, endangered Sen. Dean Heller (R) has to beat a pro-Trump challenger before he can even think about reelection. Same in Arizona, which is one reason Flake stepped down. (More on that in a minute.)

2. The decline of establishment power: Senate Republican leaders want Moore to drop out of next month’s special election in Alabama to fill the seat Attorney General Jeff Sessions vacated. Now. Better to lose a Senate seat than serve alongside someone accused of sexually assaulting teenage girls.

But Moore is still in it, with the president’s blessing, no less.

This is just one high-profile example of the GOP establishment leadership’s slipping power. For the past several years, campaigning against the power structure in Washington has been a winning argument, said Doug Heye, a GOP consultant.

A candidates’ playbook looks something like: “Attack GOP leadership, raise money,” Heye said. That has cost the GOP establishment in reputation and leverage…..

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Note….

Donald Trump, with prodding from Steve Bannon HAS BEEN consistant in attacking the very party he leds for his OWN ego….And it has worked…But doing so I ask?

Will he turn the party into shit like he has done with a lot of his business ventures ?

image…nypost.com

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There’s No Reason To Think Republicans Will Be In Better Shape A Year From Now

The Grand Ole party with Donald Trump in the lead seems to be hell bent over making sure they will lose their majority in one or even both houses of Congress….

…from FiveThirtyEight….

Poll(s) of the week

We’ve been telling you to pay attention to the generic congressional ballot for a while now. Well, Tuesday’s results showed why.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll and a separate CNN survey released this week both found Democrats leading Republicans by 11 percentage points on the generic ballot. That’s a big lead — the type of lead that results in wave elections like Tuesday’s. It’s also just a hair larger than the Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight average of generic ballot polls.

But the really bad news for Republicans: There’s a good chance they won’t be able to eat too much into that lead by the 2018 midterms.

The generic congressional ballot, even more than a year before a midterm, has historically been quite predictive of what will eventually occur in the following year. It was predictive in April, and it’s even more predictive now. You can see this phenomenon in the chart below. The chart shows the margin by which the presidential party leads on the generic ballot in an average of polls in October1 a year before the midterm compared with the national House margin in the midterm election. Every midterm cycle since 1938 is included, with the exception of 1942 and 1990, for which we don’t have polling at this point in the cycle.

The generic ballot polls a year from the election and the eventual House results are strongly correlated (+0.90). Importantly, past elections suggest that any big movement on the generic ballot from this point to the midterm tends to go against the president’s party.2 That movement explains why the Democrats lost ground in 2010 and 2014 in the generic ballot polls when they controlled the White House, while they maintained their lead in 2006when Republicans held the White House….

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Note….

This look is BEFORE Robert Mueller get done with his investigation of Donald Trump and Company….

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Nate Silver on the increasing possibility of a 2018 Democratic ‘Wave’…

The American iconic political pundit at FiveTHirtyEight reviews the Democratic good fortune’s this year and how it COULD result in a Democratic ‘Wave’ election that could remove Paul Ryan from the Speakership and return the gavel Nancy Pelosi and power to the Democrat’s….

Democrats had a really good night on Tuesday, easily claiming the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, flipping control of the Washington state Senate and possibly also the Virginia House of Delegates, passing a ballot measure in Maine that will expand Medicaid in the state, winning a variety of mayoral elections around the country, and gaining control of key county executive seats in suburban New York.

They also got pretty much exactly the results you’d expect when opposing a Republican president with a 38 percent approval rating.

That’s not to downplay Democrats’ accomplishments. Democrats’ results were consistent enough, and their margins were large enough, that Tuesday’s elections had a wave-like feel. That includes how they performed in Virginia, where Ralph Northam won by considerably more than polls projected. When almost all the toss-up races go a certain way, and when the party winning those toss-up races also accomplishes certain things that were thought to be extreme long shots (such as possibly winning the Virginia House of Delegates), it’s almost certainly a reflection of the national environment.

But we didn’t need Tuesday night to prove that the national environment was good for Democrats; there was plenty of evidence for it already. In no particular order of importance:

Last thing: while Tuesday’s results may not change the reality of the 2018 outlook all that much, it could change perceptions about it, and that could have some knock-on effects. (Politicians are often like “Morning Joe” panelists in how they think about elections.) Republicans’ retirement issues may get even worse; Democrats’ recruiting may get even better. Republicans might think twice about how they’re proceeding on tax reform — especially given that their current plans could have negative effects on just the sorts of wealthy coastal suburbs where Republicans performed poorly on Tuesday….

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Schumer wants his party to stay clear of Gun Control…

Smart Man….

The issue is a non-starter for Democrats who need to get wins next year so they can THEN go the issue…

Better to focus on bread and butter issues…

Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) is urging his colleagues to stay away from gun control in the budget debate despite pressure from activist groups that argue the party needs to take a stand given the string of mass shootings across the country.

Schumer, focused on next year’s midterm elections, thinks it is smarter to focus on economics — specifically President Trump’s tax plan, which Democrats say is a giveaway to corporations and the rich, and GOP proposals to cut Medicare and Medicaid.

The approach isn’t sitting well with everyone, given that the country experienced the deadliest mass shooting in modern history less than three weeks ago, when 58 people were killed by a single gunman who may have used bump stock devices that allowed him to fire more rounds per minute….

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For Democrats in 2018 as in last year…It’s where the votes are…Not how many Democrats vote……

Charlie Cook  Report is out with a analysis piece today that points to this….

While Democrats have an OVERALL enthusiasm lead in their voters right now for House races coming up next year?

Republican’s have a HIGHER enthusiasm  lead in their OWN House districts right now…GOP voters are about where  they are in 2010 when they swept away the Democratic majority in House….

Remember…..Hillary Clinton won the OVERALL vote last November, but lost the election because of WHERE the vote was….

If Cook is right?

(He admits his view is overly aimed across the board and doesn’t factor in local issue’s, candidates  and other factors)

Then the effort by Democrats across the country running for House seats that went over to the GOPer’s back after the 2010 election will have to go out in some GOP country and  sell the same thing as Republicans are pushing, but better….Democrats are strong in their districts , but that isn’t enough…

 

Eight years after the rise of the Tea Party, the GOP remains engaged in intra-party warfare. Capturing all levers of political power in Washington has done nothing to temper the deep-seeded tension between the forces of the traditional “establishment” wing of the party and its populist/libertarian infused “anti-establishment” wing. There are plenty of reasons for why this feud continues. A big part of the blame falls at the feet of outside interest groups and professional agitators who use chaos and indignation to raise money and line their own pockets. Meanwhile, the president, normally a unifying figure for the party, has only helped to sow these long-standing divisions with his attacks on GOP leadership. The question now is if these rifts are going to rob Republicans of the momentum and energy they need for what is shaping up to be a difficult mid-term election.

Recent polling has shown that the in-fighting and name-checking from President Trump is taking a toll on perceptions of the GOP and its leadership, especially among its own members….

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Republican Healthcare Repeal efforts could come back to haunt them next November…

Americans ain’t gonna be happy if they are receiving letters in the mail telling them they have lost their healthcare issurance RIGHT BEFORE  next years Midterm elections….

It’s like the Republicans REALLY don’t want to keep their majorities in Congress, eh?

The Republicans’ latest drive to repeal Obamacare is reminiscent of a poetry fragment from Tennyson’s “The Charge of the Light Brigade”: “Theirs not to make reply, theirs not to reason why.”

Whatever happens with the bill likely slated to reach the Senate floor next week, it is hard to escape the feeling that this wild charge will end badly for the Republicans.

In belatedly pushing the legislation(sponsored by Lindsey Graham, Bill Cassidy, Ron Johnson and Dean Heller), Mitch McConnell and the GOP leadership have absorbed none of the lessons from the dramatic failure of the last Senate repeal effort with an ailing John McCaincasting the decisive “no” vote.

What has been baffling the Republicans since the days of Social Security and then Medicare is that social welfare programs with middle-class beneficiaries grow more popular over time. American voters, for understandable reasons, do not support legislative efforts to take away benefits that they have been receiving.

As a result, the only voters still passionate about repealing Obamacare are hardcore conservatives.

A Quinnipiac University poll, conducted in early August, found that 60 percent of registered voters (including 28 percent of Republicans) believe that it is time for Congress to move on. And recent surveys have also found that a majority of voters now approve of the once-reviled 2010 legislation known as Obamacare….

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Expanding chances for House Democrats…

ANOTHER piece that oughta bring a smile to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s face….

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With 14 months to go before Election Day, the House battleground continues to take shape. Even though there is some uncertainty about what the political climate will look like next fall and whether normal historical midterm trends will hold under President Donald Trump, the House playing field is expanding, almost entirely in the Democrats’ direction.

As we’ve mentioned plenty of times before (and will likely repeat over and over again), history puts the Republican Party at a disadvantage: The president’s party has lost seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections, with an average loss of 33 seats. Democrats need to gain 24 seats next year for a majority.

Midterm elections often a referendum on the president, and when voters disapprove of his performance, they punish his party because his name isn’t on the ballot. Historical trends are based on that dynamic.

But what happens when voters perceive the president to be outside the traditional two-party system? Trump is technically a Republican because he ascended through the GOP nominating process. Still, many voters see him as his own brand rather than as a party leader. If that differentiation continues, GOP candidates could avoid the typical midterm disaster.

It’s certainly possible that historical norms will remain in tact and voters will couple Republicans in Congress with the president. Plus, voters could become angered by members’ own voting records, or Trump might blame Republicans in Congress for the failures of the country. Any combination of those factors could be problematic for the GOP.

For now, we’ve changed the Inside Elections ratings in 15 House races, all but one of them to a more favorable category for Democrats…..

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Note….

Maybe?…Just maybe someone whispered in Donald Trump’s ear that    the Speaker of the House is gonna be Pelosi come January 2019….Not Paul Ryan and he’s getting a jump on things?

image…cnbc.com

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Moderate Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA) throws in the towel for 2018 re-run…

Update…

The orignal post has Dent from NY …That is incorrect…The author of the linked piece got it wrong and I did NOT double check…My Bad…

Thanks the DSD for the correction….

And the guy is going out swinging at his fellow Republicans on the right….

Image result for rep charlie dent

Rep. Charlie Dent (R-NY), a moderate who often bucks his own party, announced late Thursday that he will not seek re-election to the House in 2018.

Dent, the co-chair of the moderate Tuesday Group in the House, first revealed that he would retire in an interview with the Washington Post.

“Accomplishing the most basic fundamental tasks of governance is becoming far too difficult,” he told the Washington Post. “It shouldn’t be, but that’s reality.”

Dent told the Post that waited until Thursday to tell House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio), the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, House Republicans’ fundraising arm. He said that Ryan and Stivers would prefer for him to seek re-election, but that he had decided this summer to retire.

He followed up with a statement explaining his decision to leave Congress.

“I have done my best to make a meaningful, positive impact. As a member of the governing wing of the Republican Party, I’ve worked to instill stability, certainty and predictability in Washington. I’ve fought to fulfill the basic functions of Government, like keeping the lights on and preventing default,” he said. “Regrettably, that has not been easy given the disruptive outside influences that profit from increased polarization and ideological rigidity that leads to dysfunction, disorder and chaos.”….

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The GOP has six retirements for next year Midterm race’s, which could help Democratic efforts to unseat the Republican majority in the House…

image….washingtontimes.com

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The weekly Trump is losing support piece….

This one is in Politico and is from a Democratic leaning poll…..

Donald Trump is losing support from voters who crossed over to back him in last year’s election, according to a new study released Wednesday.

A new survey from the bipartisan Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, which has been interviewing the same voters repeatedly for the past six years, identifies which voters have drifted away from Trump over the first six months of his presidency — and points to the danger for Republicans if the party can’t bring them back into the fold in the upcoming off-year and midterm elections.

Among all Trump voters, the president’s approval rating remains high: The vast majority, 88 percent, approved of the job he is doing as president. But there is erosion among voters who backed Barack Obama in 2012 but switched to Trump in 2016. Only 70 percent of those Obama-Trump voters approved of the job the president is doing. And 22 percent disapproved — a rate more than twice the 9 percent of all Trump voters who disapproved.

Sixteen percent of these Obama-Trump voters said they regretted their choice in last year’s election — a small but significant number that again outpaces the 6 percent of all Trump voters who regret voting for him…..

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States begin to line up to sue Trump on Dreamers program cut…

Update…

Sessions says DACA ‘being rescinded’ with window for Congress to act

Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced Tuesday that President Donald Trump’s administration is rescinding an Obama-era policy that provided work permits to undocumented immigrants who were brought into the country as children, with a wind-down period that allows Congress to act on the issue first….

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If Congress doesn’t act during their busy fall several states are going to court to stop the cuts to the Obama  Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program….

It looks like Trump and Kelly aren’t off the hook on this….

The politics of this could leak into next years Midterm elections…

At least two states are threatening to sue if President Trump decides to cancel the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.

Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) said Monday that his state will sue Trump if ends the program, which shields from deportation undocumented immigrants who were brought to the country as minors and received work permits.

“If President Trump follows through on his reported decision to cancel DACA after a six-month delay, the Washington Attorney General’s Office will file suit to halt this cruel and illegal policy and defend DACA recipients,” Ferguson said in a statement.

“We have been working closely with legal teams around the country, and we expect to be joined by other states in this action.”

Ferguson’s statement comes after New York’s governor and attorney general also said their state would sue if Trump ends the Obama-era program.

Nearly 800,000 immigrants have received deportation deferrals under the program, which began in 2012…..

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Will Paul Ryan have a problem holding his second job?

His first job is a memeber of thge House of Representive in the US Congress…

His second job is leading that legislative body….

With low polling numbers?

And the political sniping between him a Trump?

Could the guy be in trouble?

Image result for paul ryan

“Do you plan to vote against Paul D. Ryan continuing his speakership?”

It was an easy-sounding question, asked at the end of a friendly Republican candidate forum at Minnesota’s state fair. To the pleasant surprise of Democrats, four of five Republicans seeking to flip House seats next year declined to support the speaker of the House, offering instead criticisms of Paul D. Ryan’s leadership.

“I think he’s going in the wrong direction,” said state Rep. Tim Miller.

“I would prefer someone else,” said commercial pilot Dave Hughes.

“We’ll see who runs for speaker,” said businessman Jim Hagedorn.

“He might not even run for speaker,” said St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber….

“Speaker Ryan has been instrumental in the passage of key House legislative items and the successful election of four new Republican members in 2017. We’re thankful for his leadership.”

Public polling, however, has seen Ryan’s favorable rating and approval rating tumble since the start of the Trump presidency. According to HuffPost’s poll tracker, Ryan’s approval rating was barely underwater, 35/41, the week of Trump’s inauguration. Today, it’s underwater by close to 20 points, 30/49; Pelosi’s rating is 29/49. A Bloomberg poll, conducted shortly before the effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act failed in the Senate, found 61 percent of Republican voters approving of Ryan, with every other voting bloc viewing him negatively.

“His numbers are no better than mine,” Pelosi said after Democrats lost a special election in Georgia’s 6th District. “The difference is we don’t engage in the politics of personal destruction.”…

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A counter view of Democrats House chances next year…

While his OVERALL numbers continue to drop?

His support in base area’s has held firm….

Vox is out with a piece that examines the Trump base….And throws some cold water on the pundits that have been increasing  thinking that Democrats efforts to get the US House back are good….

The Jeff Duo piece paints a different view of the problems that Democrats will have encroaching on Trump territory to try make gains in House races that are needed to get the 24  or more House seats to make Nancy Pelosi the House Majority Leader….AGAIN…

It appears that in congressional districts held by Republicans, there remains a core group of right-leaning voters who don’t seem concerned about the messy dramas emanating from the White House.

The pattern is the same when we narrow the focus to the closest 25 congressional districts on either side. (The pattern also persists when we look at close counties, which rules out gerrymandering as an explanation, since county lines are not regularly redrawn for electoral reasons.)

So what’s happening here?

It’s important to point out that the data set we’re using is massive, but not without its caveats. Our 50,000 respondents come from online surveys, and while this a nationally representative sample, it might not precisely capture the opinions of those who shun the web. Furthermore, our results end in the first week of July (our August survey is currently in the field), so they don’t reflect the latest shifts in public opinion. A lot happened in July — the Don Trump Jr. emails, the failed Senate health care bill, the brief, wondrous White House career of Anthony Scaramucci — and other polling suggests that these controversies have caused Trump approval to slip further in recent weeks.

What’s safe to say is that Trump approval has remained surprisingly resilient in the places that matter most to Democrats right now: the districts they hope to win in 2018.

Our polling data also casts a different light on the special House elections of the past few months, where Democrats have made startling gains. In the high-profile race for Georgia’s Sixth, for instance, Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff nearly defeated Republican Karen Handel, even though the district went Republican by a 62-38 margin in 2016. (For reference, GA-6 doesn’t even count as one of the 50 closest Republican districts.)

Many pundits took the close Ossoff-Handel race as a sign that backlash against Trump would trigger a Democratic surge in 2018. Overall, though, our surveys suggest that Democrats will have a tough time in vulnerable Republican districts, where opinions about Trump have been slow to change — particularly among the Republicans and swing voters that Democrats will need to rely on to win seats.

All of this seems to be another sign that Americans are divided, not only by ideology but by the information they consume and the company they keep. Trump approval might be declining across the nation, but not so much in the Republican enclaves that Democrats desperately hope to flip…..

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Democrats will NOT withhold campaign funds from Pro-Life candidates…

Looking to get the 24 US House seats they need in  next years MidTerm Elections…

The party is signaling that it will  NOT just turn to the left…

Democrats will not withhold financial support for candidates who oppose abortion rights, the chairman of the party’s campaign arm in the House said in an interview with The Hill.

Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) said there will be no litmus tests for candidates as Democrats seek to find a winning roster to regain the House majority in 2018.

“There is not a litmus test for Democratic candidates,” said Luján, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman. “As we look at candidates across the country, you need to make sure you have candidates that fit the district, that can win in these districts across America.”

In taking the position, Luján and Democrats risk alienating liberals, as well as groups dedicated to promoting access to abortion and reproductive health services that represent the core of the party’s base.

“Throwing weight behind anti-choice candidates is bad politics that will lead to worse policy,” said Mitchell Stille, who oversees campaigns for NARAL Pro-Choice America. “The idea that jettisoning this issue wins elections for Democrats is folly contradicted by all available data.”

Luján, serving his second term as the DCCC’s chairman, has cast a wide net for candidates. A map on his office wall highlights districts held by dozens of Republican that he hopes to oust in the 2018 midterm elections.

“To pick up 24 [seats] and get to 218, that is the job. We’ll need a broad coalition to get that done,” Luján said. “We are going to need all of that, we have to be a big family in order to win the House back.”

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Extreme candidates help the other guy/gal….Poll….

Another advance look and lesson for next years Midterm elections….

Extreme candidates for the House of Representatives do worse than moderates because they mobilize the opposing party to turn out to vote, according to new research from Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson of Stanford University.

Political scientists and campaign experts have been divided for decades about whether candidates are successful when they win over swing voters — those who aren’t loyal to any party — or when they encourage members of their own party to show up at the polls. The research suggests that when it comes to ideologically extreme candidates, the deciding factor might be the other party’s turnout.

Note….
Remember…..
Donald Trump actually LOST the popular vote by almost 3 Million…..
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Number of Democrats running for Congress in 2018 goes thru the roof….

If there is one thing Donald Trump and Republicans along with Hillary Clinton’s loss has awaken?

It’s the number of people signing up to run as Democrats for office next year….

As of the end of June, 209 Democratic challengers had registered with the FEC and raised at least $5,000. That more than doubled the previous high mark since 2003. In 2009, the Republicans had 78 challengers with at least $5,000. The early GOP challengers in 2009 foreshadowed the party’s regaining majority control. The question is whether the same will hold true for the Democrats in 2018.

Chart showing number of House challengers with greater than $5,000 as of June 30th, by party, from 2003-present. Democrats in 2017 have 209, more than twice the second-largest group, which were 78 Republicans in 2009.The number of challengers at six months is truly remarkable. And the candidates are not simply bunching up in a few primaries. Yes, there is some doubling up: six Democrats have filed so far against John Faso in New York’s 19th congressional district. But there is also a good spread. So far, 105 different Republican incumbents have Democratic challengers with $5,000. At this same time in 2009, only 50 of the Democratic incumbents were up against challengers with $5,000.

So the Democrats are putting themselves in a strong position to take advantage of a national tide in their direction, if there is one. This is important. No matter how strong a tide may be nationally, congressional elections are decided in districts. The party riding a wave cannot win in a district unless it puts up a credible candidate. You cannot beat somebody with nobody. Finding a credible candidate has to come first…..

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