Tag Archives: 2018 Midterm Elections

Feb. 2018 Poll…Biden beats Trump…Obamacare support 47/35 for…Tax cut 30% support to 41% against…

Good news for Democrats in the latest Public Policy Polling poll out today….

Here are the highlights of PPP’s first public national poll of the year:

2018 Landscape

Democrats have a solid 49-41 lead on the generic Congressional ballot, although that’s down a shade from December when it was 51-40. Beyond their overall lead, they’re also benefiting from an enthusiasm advantage- 65% of Clinton voters say they’re ‘very excited’ to vote in the election this fall, compared to 58% of Trump voters.

Paul Ryan’s seen a bump in his approval rating after the passage of tax reform- in December it was 23-58, and now it’s 29-53. There’s been no such boost for Mitch McConnell though- he was at 13-61 then and he’s at 14-59 now.

Tax Reform

Public opinion is more split about the tax bill now than it was before the holidays. 38% of voters say they support the plan to 41% who are opposed to it. Voters are still skeptical about how much they will personally benefit from it though. 35% think it will help their family’s finances, 29% think it won’t have much of an impact on their family’s finances, and 28% think it will hurt their family’s finances. That skepticism voters have about how much the tax bill will help them is probably rooted in the fact that 56% think it will mostly benefit the rich to 31% who think it will mostly help the middle class.

One interesting finding is that only 17% of voters realize that more than 80% of the benefits from the tax plan will go to the wealthiest 1%. It will be interesting as Democrats message around that in the midterms this year to see how much increasing awareness of that fact will impact feelings about the bill.

Health Care

While the tax issue isn’t hurting Republicans quite as much as it was a couple months ago, the party’s failed effort on health care last year continues to hurt it quite a bit. Voters support the Affordable Care Act 47-35, and only 34% think the best path forward on health care is to repeal it compared to 60% who prefer to keep it in place and make fixes to it as necessary. A majority of voters nationally- 51%- think that the Trump administration is actively taking steps that will hurt people’s health care and raise costs to only 42% who don’t think it’s trying to do that.

Donald Trump

Trump has the highest approval rating we’ve found for him in a long time this month, with 44% of voters approving of him to 50% who disapprove. Even so he trails Joe Biden 51-42,….

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Republicans?…Don’t have Trump in your campaign in California….

He will HURT your poll numbers and your chances of winning come November….

This IS the way Democrats will win back a House majority come next year….Picking off GOP districts with good candidates , Trumps chaos and touching base with voters, on their needs….

California Republicans’ hopes for re-election in 2018 may rest on separating themselves from the unpopular President Trump. A new poll shows that’s not happening as the year begins, at least in two of the state’s most competitive congressional districts.

Majorities of likely voters in the districts of Republican Reps. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa and Steve Knight of Lancaster aren’t happy with Trump and are disinclined to vote for their representative’s re-election.

The polling, conducted by the University of California, Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) in mid-January, finds that support for the two Republicans’ re-election is highly correlated with voter opinions about the president’s job approval, their 2016 presidential vote, and GOP control of Congress.

Rohrabacher’s web of ties to Russia have drawn the attention of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigative team. But his connection to Trump may be equally, if not more, damaging. Despite a Republican voter registration edge in Rohrabacher’s district, over half of likely voters there disapprove of the president. Knight faces a similar dynamic.

Republicans Underneath are divided…

While the party’s lawmakers have voted lockstep with Donald Trump?

They have issues….

The rightwingnuts in protected districts are hold firm with Trump against giving Democrats an inch…

But there are lot of Republicans in districts that are worried about getting picked off by Democrats….They ARE worried about the intransigence of their party in Congress….

“Nothing’s going to get done this year,” acknowledged a senior Republican aide, noting divisions over President Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion infrastructure package and immigration.

Internal divisions are a major reason why Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is stressing the need to move bipartisan legislation this year.

He knows the party is divided on key issues and also needs to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold in the upper chamber.

The looming question, however, is whether McConnell and other GOP leaders are willing to risk a backlash from the conservative base by cutting deals with Democrats — especially with primary elections quickly approaching.

Some suggest the answer is to let senators legislate on the floor, something McConnell has vowed to do on immigration.

“There’s a very to simple way to deal with all these differences of opinions. You can let the legislative process work and they will be adjudicated along the way,” said James Wallner, a GOP policy expert and former Senate aide…

More….

Supreme Court Denies Request to Halt Pennsylvania Redistricting

This is unexpected win for Democrats from a court that is viewed as leaning in Republicans favor….

The Supreme Court on Monday denied a request from Pennsylvania state lawmakers to halt a redrawing of congressional districts for the 2018 primary and general elections. The state’s Supreme Court threw out the current map as unconstitutional because of partisan gerrymanders.

The high court’s ruling on Monday means Pennsylvania will have new congressional boundaries for the midterm elections. The primary is May 15….

The new map could help Democrats, who are outnumbered in the congressional delegation. Republicans hold 12 of the state’s 18 congressional seats, with one GOP seat currently vacant….

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Note…

The ruling by the Supreme’s could help Democratic efforts around the country to counter agressive Republican gerrymandering of Congressional district for their favor…

The Democratic Generic House advantage is shrinking in the polls….

While Republican House members are bailing and we are all talking about the Democratc  2018 midterm ‘wave’?

The polling numbers on House Democrats vs House Republicans margins seem to be shrinking….

…via twitter….

It’s January so one doesn’t need to sweat every tick on the generic ballot. But the media narrative of a Democratic wave is building at the same time their numbers are getting a bit worse….

Over at RealClearPolitics the spresd is at +7.5 for Democrats….

Things have ticked UP for Republicans and down for the Democrats in the polls since January 13, 2018….Link.

Joe Biden to give speech at Democratic House get together…

The former Vice President currently leads in the 2020 Presidential sweepstakes polling….

House Democrats are locked out of things these days, but feel that they will be back in control of the House in 11 months…..

Could Biden be securing political IOU’s with a ‘rah, rah’ session for his fellow Democrats?…(Biden is sure to be available to campaign for House members Midterm chances)

Image result for joe biden

Former Vice President Joe Biden will headline the House Democratic retreat next week, according to a person familiar with the planning.

Biden will be the keynote speaker at the three-day confab, which kicks off in Cambridge, Maryland, on Wednesday, Feb. 7. Biden will address the 194-member caucus on Wednesday, the person familiar with the planning said.

Government funding runs out Feb. 8 — in the middle of the annual event — but Democrats are still expected to attend if the House and Senate can pass another short-term funding bill early next week.

Biden, 75, has not ruled out challenging President Donald Trump for the White House in 2020 and continues to poll well among Democratic voters as a potential presidential candidate.

And Biden — the “scrappy kid from Scranton,” as former President Barack Obama once described him — has the potential to cut into the working-class base that propelled Trump to power.

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image…businessinsider.com

The Democratic Party and it’s candidates STILL have money problems….

There was a cry form Bernie sanders supports that the Democratic party apparatus surrendered to the Hillary Clinton campiagn last year?

Well?

The SAME basic situation is still a problem for Democrats…

BIG MONEY….

While the faitful may have complained about the Hillary Clinton taking money from the rich and spending it on her campaign?….A t least she HAD money…

Democrats around the country are grumbling about trying to produce a ‘wave’ election to take back the House and hold on in the US Senate without badly needed financial support….That wave needs money to organize , run adds and sustain itself…

…..many of the Democratic leaders say they’re concerned that while the Republican National Committee and local GOP groups promote their investments in organizing in key states, the Democratic groups in charge of putting organizers and voter resources on the ground remain underfunded, and the national committee does not have a permanent army of organizers in target areas.

If they don’t get organizers and on-the-ground infrastructure in place soon, they worry, the party will not be able to fully benefit this fall from an expected electoral bonanza driven by a glut of energized candidates and grassroots supporters.

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti implored the gathered officials to fund city and municipal party organizations — as well as state parties — during his Saturday morning speech to the group.

“Help them out in those key moments, and they will help you out too,” he promised.

Led by Perez and Deputy Chair Keith Ellison — both of whom met with numerous local officials about their worries this week — the DNC has begun plowing money into state parties in the form of $10,000 monthly investments, which is more than the committees have ever before gotten from the national party. But those payments only started to arrive in October, a perceived delay that ratcheted up anxiety among state operatives.

One reason is that the DNC is still struggling to raise the maximum-sized checks from wealthy party donors that would allow it to funnel more money into the states. The initial grant cash doled out last week indeed comes from the party’s general fund, and not its major donor-driven account, according to Democrats familiar with the arrangement.

That disconnect with the party’s most supportive moguls was on full display in Long Beach. While a few active state chairs drove into Los Angeles to court big money sources, none of the big-name Democratic donors joined the festivities on the hotel deck and under the water-side umbrellas here….

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2018’s open House seats….

2/3 ‘s of those House spots are currently Republican held…

Democrats must make heavy inroads into the number to retake the majority in the US House of Representatives….

By time Nov. 6 rolls around, there will be at least 46 vacated House seats up for grabs —two-thirds of those are held by Republicans this term. The openings are significant because incumbents have outperformed non-incumbents of the same party in similar districts by about seven points in the last decade or so, per the New York Times.

Here for an interesting interactive graphic and more on this….

Will Democrat’s come out to form a voting ‘wave’ this November?

FiveThirtyEight looks back at the historical actual numbers of Democrats and Republicans that come out to vote in Midterm election….

Democrats got the best of Republicans during the 2017 election season, outperforming expectations in special elections across the country and easily winning the only two governors races. Much of that success came down to turnout — the Democratic base came out and voted.

It’s now 2018, though. A midterm year. And if you’ve followed politics recently, you’re used to hearing what may seem like an immutable law of elections: Midterm turnout favors the GOP. That was incredibly true in the last two midterm cycles, 2010 and 2014. And it’s true generally too. But it masks an important factor: which party holds the White House.1

Take a look at the table below. It shows — for every midterm since 1978 — the difference between Democrats and Republicans in self-identified party identification2 among all registered voters compared with those who voted in the midterms (i.e. the turnout margin or advantage).3

Overall, in the 10 midterm elections since 1978, the average Republican turnout advantage has been about 3 percentage points. In other words, the GOP does about 3 points better, on average, among midterm voters compared with whatever their margin is vs. Democrats among all registered voters. In short, Republicans have a midterm turnout advantage.

There’s a second important force at work during midterm elections, however. The Republican turnout advantage is either exacerbated or all but canceled out depending on which party controls the White House.

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Republicans in Democratic state’s want tax law changes already…

They know their fellow Republicans threw them under the bus for the upcoming 2018 Midterm elections…

A LOT of Republican voters in Blue states rushed to file their mortgage taxes early….

A LOT of people in Blue states are gonna get sticker shock when they do their taxes….

The IRS is scratching its head trying to figure out along with tax preparers on how to handle this rushed political throwdown…

And Democrats are SURE to keep reminding voters of who craeted this chaos ….

And over 30 GOP lawmakers have decided to retire rather than run again this fall…

Some blue-state Republicans are pushing for tax changes to help their constituents as Democrats seek to target the suburbs in the midterm elections.

Nearly all of the GOP lawmakers who voted against the sweeping tax-cut bill in December did so because of a cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction that would be particularly damaging in high-tax areas such as New York, New Jersey and California. Now that the bill is law, some of those lawmakers are offering legislation to prevent their constituents from seeing tax hikes.

Rep. Leonard Lance (R-N.J.), a top target in November, is planning to offer legislation that would allow everyone who prepaid their 2018 property taxes to deduct them on their 2017 returns.

Lance and others also say they still want to see the full SALT deduction restored.

And a number of blue-state Republicans, including those who voted for the tax bill, are calling for Democratic state officials to lower taxes.

The midterm elections are shaping up to be challenging for Republicans. The president’s party typically loses congressional seats in the midterms, and President Trump’s approval rating in recent polls is only around 40 percent.

A number of high-profile GOP lawmakers have decided to retire rather than face potentially difficult contests — including House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R-Calif.), who said on Monday that he would not seek reelection….

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Political Roundup for January 10th, 2018…The National Look…RRH Elections

National

The GOP’s Death Wish: Parallels between 2010 and 2018 have inspired The Economist to look into a scenario in which blue state and suburban Republicans were to be wiped out. What did they find? 1) The Republican caucus would be even more beholden to the Freedom Caucus, and 2) Should the Democrats take control, the 111th Congress would look like a CPAC meeting in comparison. Sad!

Putting the Bully Back in Bully Pulpit: In the past two years, many Republican voters’ political opinions have changed at an astoundingly rapid rate. Accordingly, The Economist analyzed how the president’s screeds tweets and rhetorical pushes have affeted public opinions. Unsurprisingly, many Republicans simply adopted whatever position POTUS advocated at the time, including conspiracy theories (for example: miyins and miyins of illegals who cast ballots cost Trump the popular vote).

Doom!: In light of the cascade of recent GOP House retirements, the failing New York Times looked at whether the increasing talks of a coming Democratic wave have any merit. Its findings? Yes, the Donald’s approval numbers are low, and a large number of Republican retirements point in that direction. Yet, the Democrats may underpform because, unlike the Republicans of 1994, team blue presents no coherent agenda to offer voters other than the #resistance to the Donald.

Ideological Diversity: Alarmed at the possibility of Republicans becoming the Breitbart Party, the Governator has allied with some prominent moderate Republicans to keep the big tent, uh, big.

Oprah 2020: Longtime Oprah friend and CBS This Morning anchor Gayle King told colleagues yesterday that Oprah is “intrigued” by the idea of a presidential campaign. King did, however, hedge; she claimed she was merely “expressing a hunch.”

Super Zips: According to Dallas’ PBS affiliate (it has one of those?), suburbs in the Metroplex are among the nation’s most prosperous. What makes this worthy of mentioning in a roundup, however, is the inclusion of a map that shows the relative prosperity of each ZIP code. You might recognize a pattern; the Donald struggled in places that know of America’s greatness.

Trading Places: Despite some theses to the contrary, we have a sign that the urban revival in America has not reversed. For the first time ever, Chicago has a higher percentage of college grads than its suburbs.

It’s the Voters, Stupid: Harry Enten looked at the partisan turnout disparity in each midterm cycle going back to 1978. What did he find? Overall, Republicans have averaged a three-point turnout advantage (and even led during Republican administrations). This shouldn’t be cause for celebration, however; Enten found that, during the 2006 cycle, there was essentially no turnout advantage for either party…

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The Republican have NO CHOICE but compromise with Democrats going forward…

Been preaching this for LONG time here…

The people who put this place together called the United States made sure that  compromise was an essential part of the process….

President Barack Obama suffered thru the last years of his term fighting with the opposition ….

They thought they won…But in the end?….Obama is the popular guy….They (Republicans lawmakers are not)….

The tax bill recently dropped on American’s seems like a crowning achievement for Republicans….It isn’t….

The law is vastly unpopular and Republicans will have to defend themselves for the next 10 months for their votes for it….

We now have a big essential bill coming up….

Funding the American government ….

The clincher?

The GOP MUST get 60 votes to authorize the budget….

They cannot do it alone….

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Worst for them?

The split in the US Senate is now 51 GOPer’s and 49 votes for the Democrats ( 2 of those votes are actually not Democrats but Indies who hang with the Dems’s)….

Two of the GOPer’s are in ill health and cannot be counted on to show up and vote all the time….Then?…There a few Republican Senator’s that the party cannot always count on…And the GOP leadership STILL owes those few some favors….

On top of ALL of this is Donald Trump, who sits at home in the White House and watches who says ‘nice’ things about him , while looking over his shoulder as the ground slowly evaporates from under him , pulled by Robert Mueller’s investigation…And continues to tweet chaos that is unnerving to EVERYBODY…

Oh, and there is the that ‘Midterms’s election Democatic  wave thing?’….

Get ALL that?

Since the day they enacted the biggest overhaul of the tax code in a generation without a single Democratic vote, Republicans have been talking a big game about their supposed desire to work across the aisle.

“We hope that 2018 will be a year of more bipartisan cooperation,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters at Camp David on Saturday, dubiously predicting that “a significant number of Democrats” will want to support President Trump’s agenda.

“We hope that we’re going to be able to work out an arrangement with the Democrats. It’s something, certainly, that I’d like to see happen,” Trump added at the news conference, which was overshadowed by his declaration earlier in the day that he is “like, really smart” and “a very stable genius.”

The paeans to working together partly reflect legislative necessity. Because of Senate rules, Republicans will need 60 votes to keep the government open beyond the end of next week, avert the deportation of hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants who were brought here as children, appropriate money for disaster relief, renew the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, stabilize the health-care system they’ve shattered and avoid a default on the national debt in March.

Now that Doug Jones has been sworn in as Alabama’s new senator, Republicans only have 51 seats. Two of their members, John McCain and Thad Cochran, have serious health problems that make their votes hard to depend on.

But cold, hard political calculus is the bigger driver of these new GOP talking points. Public and private polls show that the Trump administration’s steadfast unwillingness to work in good faith with Democrats has become a serious liability for down-ballot Republicans in the midterms….

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image..breitbart.com