Tag Archives: 2018 Charlie Cook House Projections

Sabato’s updated House rating changes favor Democrats next year

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato’s Crystal Ball gives his sites latest look at next years House midterm races….

He has 25 changes…..

Most help the Democrats who could be getting a wave to retake the majority in the House of Representatives and return Nancy Pelosi to the Speakership….Something that would slam a break on the Grand Ole Parties activities….

The consensus among most political pundits is that Democrats WILL achieve significant House gains next year…

And these factor’s…..

Trump has historically low approval ratings….

The generic ballot polls strongly favor Democrats over Republicans in House races…

The majority held Congress is pushing for unpopular legislation about healthcare, taxes and immigration…

Democrats seem to be making a comeback in locals and state races…

In the aftermath of the 2014 midterm election, when the party that didn’t hold the White House (the Republicans) gained ground in the House for the 36th time in 39 midterms since the Civil War, I wrote the following in the Center for Politics’ postmortem on the election, The Surge:

Practically speaking, though, House Democrats might have to root for the other party in the 2016 presidential race. Why? Because given what we know about midterm elections almost always going against the president’s party in the House, perhaps the next best chance for the Democrats to win the House will be in 2018 — if a Republican is in the White House.

We didn’t see many House Democrats rooting for Donald Trump to win the general election in 2016, but the simple fact of his election made a Democratic House takeover much more likely in the 2018 midterm just because of the longstanding trend for the presidential party to lose ground in the House. The electorate often uses the midterm to put a check on the executive, particularly if that executive is unpopular. “The midterm election pattern,” writes Andrew Busch in his study of midterm elections, Horses in Midstream, “virtually guarantees that the president’s party will be hurt at regular intervals. The extent of that damage may vary considerably, but the fact of it rarely does.”

We know we’ve been a broken record on the point of the presidential party midterm penalty, but it is so well-established that it merits frequent mention. Obviously, the world changed considerably when President Trump won the White House, and the political burden of holding the presidency shifted from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party when that happened.

We’re a little bit past the halfway point between the last national election, in 2016, and the next national election, in 2018. In that time, the Democrats’ chances of winning the House have only seemed to rise, based on a number of indicators. Those are….

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Cook Report changes 12 House races to advantage Democrats…..

We have been doing pieces on next years Midterm Races and Democrats chances of recouping a majority there almost weekly… 

Today’s Cook Report bears good news for Pelosi & Company…..

.But remember?

We ARE a year out from Election Day….

Based on recent developments in races and conversations with candidates and operatives on both sides of the aisle, many races have the potential to become more competitive. This week, we’re changing our ratings in 12 districts….

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For Democrats in 2018 as in last year…It’s where the votes are…Not how many Democrats vote……

Charlie Cook  Report is out with a analysis piece today that points to this….

While Democrats have an OVERALL enthusiasm lead in their voters right now for House races coming up next year?

Republican’s have a HIGHER enthusiasm  lead in their OWN House districts right now…GOP voters are about where  they are in 2010 when they swept away the Democratic majority in House….

Remember…..Hillary Clinton won the OVERALL vote last November, but lost the election because of WHERE the vote was….

If Cook is right?

(He admits his view is overly aimed across the board and doesn’t factor in local issue’s, candidates  and other factors)

Then the effort by Democrats across the country running for House seats that went over to the GOPer’s back after the 2010 election will have to go out in some GOP country and  sell the same thing as Republicans are pushing, but better….Democrats are strong in their districts , but that isn’t enough…

 

Eight years after the rise of the Tea Party, the GOP remains engaged in intra-party warfare. Capturing all levers of political power in Washington has done nothing to temper the deep-seeded tension between the forces of the traditional “establishment” wing of the party and its populist/libertarian infused “anti-establishment” wing. There are plenty of reasons for why this feud continues. A big part of the blame falls at the feet of outside interest groups and professional agitators who use chaos and indignation to raise money and line their own pockets. Meanwhile, the president, normally a unifying figure for the party, has only helped to sow these long-standing divisions with his attacks on GOP leadership. The question now is if these rifts are going to rob Republicans of the momentum and energy they need for what is shaping up to be a difficult mid-term election.

Recent polling has shown that the in-fighting and name-checking from President Trump is taking a toll on perceptions of the GOP and its leadership, especially among its own members….

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Charlie Cook’s people say Democrats STILL are in a good place for 2018 House Midterms…

Their view?

Democrats lose House races in GOP districts where there is a LOT of media attention that motivates the REPUBLICAN base….

In quiet races in GOP territory ?

Democrats do better….

And….

On the whole?

Democrats ARE actually over performing in House races in GOP districts….

They just need the Media to leave them alone while they work harder with better candidates…

If Democrats were to outperform their “generic” share by eight points across the board in November 2018, they would pick up 80 seats. Of course, that won’t happen because Republican incumbents will be tougher to dislodge than special election nominees. But these results fit a pattern that should still worry GOP incumbents everywhere, regardless of Trump’s national approval rating and the outcome of the healthcare debate in Congress.

Put another way, Democratic candidates in these elections have won an average of 68 percent of the votes Hillary Clinton won in their districts, while Republican candidates have won an average of 54 percent of Trump’s votes. That’s an enthusiasm gap that big enough to gravely imperil the Republican majority next November—even if it didn’t show up in “the special election to end all special elections.”……

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Will Democrats ride a “Wave’ Election to a House Majority next year?

Charlie Cook keeps thinking that….

House Re­pub­lic­ans were caught on the horns of a di­lemma. If they didn’t pass a bill that ef­fect­ively re­pealed and re­placed Obama­care, they would either look in­ef­fec­tu­al or in de­fi­ance of their con­ser­vat­ive base. But to pass a bill with no Demo­crat­ic sup­port in a nar­rowly di­vided House, they would need sup­port of the vast ma­jor­ity of the con­ser­vat­ive Free­dom Caucus, which would mean a bill that would nev­er sur­vive in the Sen­ate, where mem­bers have sub­stan­tially more di­verse con­stitu­en­cies.

Bey­ond those factors, they faced a po­ten­tial back­lash from Amer­ic­ans who either would be ad­versely af­fected by the bill or fear that they would. So the Re­pub­lic­ans were forced to pick their pois­on: Either look in­com­pet­ent or thumb their nose at their base. They chose to side with their base. Many mod­er­ate and swing-dis­trict Re­pub­lic­ans hope that the Sen­ate will sub­stan­tially tone down the le­gis­la­tion and that the Free­dom Caucus will feel pres­sured to go along with a much more meas­ured bill after a joint Sen­ate-House con­fer­ence com­mit­tee re­con­ciles the two ver­sions….

..

….the kind of wave that in past dec­ades might have res­ul­ted in 40- to 65-seat losses might end up as a 20- to 30-seat loss. The ma­gic num­ber in 2018 is 24. That would give the Demo­crats con­trol of the House….

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