Tag Archives: 2017 Special Alabama US Senate Race

Roy Moore seems toi have stopped campaigning in his Alabama race?

The Alabama Republican has been absent from dealing with voters since Thursday?

Huh?

Roy Moore is nowhere to be found.

The embattled GOP nominee in the Alabama Senate race has not made a public appearance since Tuesday, though Moore did sit down for an interview on a local Alabama political program. Meanwhile, his opponent, Democrat Doug Jones, has traveled to multiple parts of the state in the weekend leading up to the Dec. 12 special election….

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On those Alabama Special Election Senate Moore/Jones polls?

Since Trump did his thing last year?

Pundits get nervous with polls showing someone clearly ahead….

This time is no different…

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Important on why polls in the Alabama Senate special election are likely unreliable 👇

 Note….
Some people are thinking that the Jones leading stories may push more Moore supports to actually come out and vote…
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How bad would it be for GOPer’s if Dem Doug Jones won the Alabama Senate seat?

 over at FiveThirtyEight explores the negatives for Republicans  if Doug Jones wins the special elkection for the Alabama US Senate seat….

But?

He also looks at the postives if Doug Jones wins the election that has pitted national Grand Ole party against the Alabama state party….

How bad is it for Republicans if Jones wins? It’s really bad. Having Jones in office would reduce the GOP margin in the Senate to 51-49, meaning that Republicans could afford only one defection on legislation such as tax reform. For example, if both Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska opposed a bill and everyone else voted along party lines, it would fail by one vote.

Moreover, whoever wins the special election will serve out the remainder of former Sen. Jeff Sessions’s term, which runs through January 2021. Having Jones in office already would make it considerably easier for Democrats to win the Senate in the 2018 midterms: With a win banked in Alabama, flipping Flake’s open seat in Arizona1 and Republican Sen. Dean Heller’s in Nevada would be enough to put Democrats in control of the Senate — provided (and it’s a big provision) that Democrats didn’t lose any of their own seats.

To play devil’s advocate: One could argue that control of the Senate in 2019 and 2020 isn’t all that high-stakes…

How bad is it for Republicans if Moore wins and remains in the Senate? It’s really bad. The inverse of Jones sometimes voting with Republicans is the likelihood that Moore would sometimes vote against Republican leadership. Moore’s policy positions actually aren’t all that different from Republican leadership on issues such as health care and taxes — he’s a culture warrior but not an economic populist. However, he likes to pick fights with the Republican “establishment” and might try to undermine Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. (That McConnell has said Moore should get out of the race would likely only make the antagonism worse.) A good analogy might be to Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who has somewhat heterodox political views and is generally an unpredictable vote for McConnell.

But let’s not neglect the much greater consequence, which is that Republicans — if they didn’t expel Moore — would be seen as aiding and abetting, or at least tolerating, someone who has credibly been accused of being a serial child molester…..

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Second poll has Roy Moore TRAILING Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama Senate race…

This poll is a REPUBLICAN generated one…

And it has Moore behind by double digits…

It is the second poll out (The first) with Democrat Jones leading…

The Real Clear Politics average up to now, but NOT including the just released NRSC poll has Moore up +3%….With the spread from this new poll Moore’s average  is gonna drop….

Larry Sabato has moved this race to a tlean Democratic…

Increasingly?….. Some Republicans are thinking that the seat WILL switch parties….

Alabama GOP nominee Roy Moore is polling 12 points behind his Democratic opponent Doug Jones in the wake of allegations that Moore had initiated a sexual encounter with a minor, according to a poll from the Senate GOP’s campaign arm.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) poll, which was obtained by The Hill, found that Jones was leading Moore by a double-digit margin, 51 to 39 percent. The polling was conducted the day after The Washington Post reported on the allegations.

The survey also found that Moore’s favorability has dropped to 35 percent, compared to an NRSC poll from October that had him at 49 percent. Politico first reported about the poll….

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So have most voters in Alabama been racing to defend Moore?

“Maybe they’re not,” said Sen. Richard C. Shelby (R-Ala.), a 31-year veteran of the Senate and his state’s elder political statesman. Shelby suggested Tuesday that there were likely many voters that are “just as concerned” with Moore’s alleged behavior as there are staunch defenders of the former judge.

But Shelby said Republicans who believe the allegations are, for now, staying quiet.

In this regard, Shelby fears there is a silent majority opposed to Moore that will show up at the polls and soundly defeat him….

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