Tag Archives: 2016 presidential election

What if Mueller finds the Russians and Trump worked together to get him elected?…Open Thread for Feb. 12, 2018…

FiveThirtyEight asks the unthinkable….

What does America have in place to deal witha President that got help from a foreign power to assume office?

The lack of an established process for reviewing elections points to a larger issue: The structures established by the Constitution assumed a world in which the presidency and the Electoral College were not fully absorbed into a contentious national party system. That vision has long since been replaced by one in which presidential elections are national contests over policy agendas and ideas. The text of our Constitution has never been changed to reflect this reality. Instead, the Electoral College remains the final word on who gets to be president. When it comes to the possibility that the winning side colluded with a foreign power to influence the election outcome, the Constitution doesn’t offer much in the way of a plan….

….experts disagree about whether courts can order presidential elections to be held again. That’s not great news for angry people hoping for a do-over. And even if it is constitutionally permissible, there’s much broader agreement that the standard for invalidating an election result and holding another vote is quite high. University of Memphis law professor Steven Mulroy told me that courts will usually entertain this option only if they determine a violation of rules that would change the election outcome. In the case of the 2016 election, this would likely require proving tampering in several states where the vote was close — enough to change the result in the Electoral College. In that case, a few states would vote again, not the entire country,…

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The solution has been in the few instances?

It’s up to the President himself to to ‘do the right thing’….

THAT certainly is NOT comforting….

Update….

Mueller and Co. just answered the question that headlines this post….

George W. Bush thinks the Russian had their hands in the 2016 Presidential election…

Another public doubt cast on Donald Trump’s Presidency is cast…..

George W Bush

George W Bush has said there is “pretty clear evidence that the Russians meddled” in the 2016 US presidential election, forcefully rebutting Donald Trump’s denials that Moscow tried to affect the vote.

While never mentioning Trump by name, Bush, the US president from 2001 to 2009, appeared to be pushing back at Trump’s attempts to foster warmer relations with Russia.

The White House did not immediately comment on Bush’s remarks.

“There’s pretty clear evidence that the Russians meddled,” Bush said at a talk in the United Arab Emirates. “Whether they affected the outcome is another question.”

He also said: “It’s problematic that a foreign nation is involved in our election system. Our democracy is only as good as people trust the results.”

US intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia meddled in the 2016 election to help Trump win…

More…

Before this is Over….Republicans Are Going to Wish Clinton Won…

Image result for clinton /trump debate

..Jonathan Chait @ The New York Magazine..

“Imagine what the political world would look like for Republicans had Hillary Clinton won the election. Clinton had dragged her dispirited base to the polls by promising a far more liberal domestic agenda than Barack Obama had delivered, but she would have had no means to enact it. As the first president in 28 years to take office without the benefit of a Congress in her own party’s hands, she’d have been staring at a dead-on-arrival legislative agenda, all the low-hanging executive orders having already been picked by her predecessor, and years of scandalmongering hearings already teed up. The morale of the Democratic base, which had barely tolerated the compromises of the Obama era and already fallen into mutual recriminations by 2016, would have disintegrated altogether. The 2018 midterms would be a Republican bloodbath, with a Senate map promising enormous gains to the Republican Party, which would go into the 2020 elections having learned the lessons of Trump’s defeat and staring at full control of government with, potentially, a filibuster-proof Senate majority.”

“Instead, Republicans under Trump are on the verge of catastrophe.”

Politicalwire…

image…time.com

FiveThirtyEight’s look back at why the Media missed the boat on last years Presidential…

Image result for clinton/trump

In a piece written back in January (and with updated links below) Nate Silver blames just about EVERYBODY on oversimplifying last years election reporting and predictions….

He blames the polling for being overly nationalistic…

he blames the pundits and forecasters for NOT realizing the extent of damage James Comey inflicted on the Clinton campaign…

He blames the media for herd journalism and not noticing later in the campaign the changes in the polling…

He blames his own self for following the thought that Hillary Clinton could NOT lose….

And he blames the NY Times for running two shops….

One the inside one that sold the idea that Hillary Clinton WOULD win no matter what….

And the political side like the Upshot that DID notice and report the closeness of the race in the end….

 

I didn’t really see it but Silver claims that the media is NOW trying to make up for it’s miss by overselling the idea that Trump’s Republican support NOW is stronger than the polling shows….

Consistent polling over the last several weeks HAS shown that President Trump IS losing support down to the middle 30%’s….A level that is lower than any President in modern history….

 

I believe that Silver is arguing that the polls REALLY did NOT get things that far off the mark…

Trump LOST the popular vote…

Silver argues that Clinton’s big electoral win was more of Pennsylvania and Florida not the other few states….That she gained with Latino’s but lost with the Democratic bedrock vote of Blacks’…And that her ground game wasn’t all that bad.

And points NOT to Trump’s strength in campaigning, but to the loss of less educated white males in swing states….(Later polling analysis shows that Middle Class white’s in those two states also left Clinton hanging…)

The picture further goes to show that while Democrats do well in Blue states?

They are at a disadvantage in the electoral college if they cannot pull in the swing states…The idea that the popular vote demographic FAVOR Democrats is the opposite of the electoral college field…

To win you must win TWO distinctly difference election races on Presidential election day…

Here’s the link….

Winning the job of President of the United States is a HIGHLY complex endeavor and Nate Silver’s piece kinda says sometimes the win fell to a  guy who just beat people down for his adopted parties nomination and just lucked out running against an unpopular woman, who made mistakes in her personal life she couldn’t sell to the right voters….

image….wsbtv.com

Russian says he talked to Sessions about Trump/Clinton Campaign…

Jeff Sessions originally said he had NO Russian contacts….

But the NSA has transcripts of the Russian “Ambassador Sergey Kislyak telling his people in Moscow about the meetings and conversations….

Sessions has hired his OWN personal lawyer……

And is becoming another name on the list of political liabilities for Trump’s Admin….That Robert Mueller will be looking at….

Image that?

The Attorney General, who out ranks Mueller’s whole group, being probed …..Something Police Internal Affairs people investigating their Police Chief…..

Drip…Drip…Drip…..

Russia’s ambassador to Washington told his superiors in Moscow that he discussed campaign-related matters, including policy issues important to Moscow, with Jeff Sessions during the 2016 presidential race, contrary to public assertions by the embattled attorney general, according to current and former U.S. officials.

Ambassador Sergey Kislyak’s accounts of two conversations with Sessions — then a top foreign policy adviser to Republican candidate Donald Trump — were intercepted by U.S. spy agencies, which monitor the communications of senior Russian officials both in the United States and in Russia. Sessions initially failed to disclose his contacts with Kislyak and then said that the meetings were not about the Trump campaign.

One U.S. official said that Sessions — who testified that he has no recollection of an April encounter — has provided “misleading” statements that are “contradicted by other evidence.” A former official said that the intelligence indicates that Sessions and Kislyak had “substantive” discussions on matters including Trump’s positions on Russia-related issues and prospects for U.S.-Russia relations in a Trump administration….

More….

Hillary wasn’t Angry….

Would Americans accept an ‘angry’ woman Presidential candidate ?

Image result for Hillary clinton angry

(Remember….Hillary Clinton DID come in with THREE MILLION MORE Votes that Trump….But didn’t Win)

People wanted Hillary Clinton to be angrier on the campaign trail — about the problems facing everyday Americans, and on behalf of them — and her team knew it.

The problem was they couldn’t do anything about it, according to Clinton speechwriter Dan Schwerin, who spoke to New York Magazine’s Rebecca Traister for an exposé on Clinton’s life after the election. Why were their hands tied? Because she’s a woman, Schwerin said.

“Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump both excelled at channeling people’s anger,” he told Traister:

“And there was a way in which this anger was read as authentic. But there’s a reason why male candidates can shout and are called passionate, and if a woman candidate raises her voice to whip up a crowd, she’s screeching and yelling.”

Clinton understood this, says Schwerin. “So she’s controlled. She doesn’t rant and rave, she’s careful. And then that’s read as inauthentic; it means that she doesn’t understand how upset people are, or the pain people are in, because she’s not angry in the way those guys are angry. So she must be okay with the status quo because she’s not angry.”

Clinton still believes in her strategy not to get angry, despite the public outcry for her to act differently. In fact, she tells Traister that she “beat both” Sanders and Trump (likely referring to the popular vote) with this tactic…

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She sure isn’t holding back anymore…

image..chrismanews.com

Hillary Clinton carried the email story the whole campaign….

Yup,  she did something that in hindsight was dumb…

Not criminal….

But DUMB.

And YES she was unable to get out from under the issue to Republicans glee….

And finally while he probably didn’t know it….

Donald Trump’s MULTIPLE issues served to NOT the focus any ONE like the current Russian issue is doing NOW….

Image result for hillary Clinton emails

The phrase “But her emails!” has become a sarcastic rallying cry among many liberals who bemoan the attention dedicated last year to questions over Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server.

Their perception ― that the focus on Clinton’s emails overshadowed the rest of her campaign ― is backed by data, according to an analysis recently released by researchers at Gallup, Georgetown University, and the University of Michigan. The results don’t directly address the share of media coverage focused on Clinton’s emails, or the degree to which it hurt her standing, but they make it clear that much of what the public remembered hearing about her was focused on the controversy.

“Email-related scandals clearly dominated recalled words about Clinton. This is true for almost every week of the campaign,” the authors concluded in a presentation given Saturday during a panel on election surveys. “There was no similarly common theme for Trump, whose multiple scandals produced a changing, and perhaps more easily overcome, narrative during the campaign.”….

More….

 image…dailysignal.com

Are we reliving the 2016 campaign 6 months later?

Trump people need to  keep reminding people that they won?

President Trump’s upset November victory never seems to be far from the White House’s mind.

On Tuesday, Dan Scavino, the White House director of social media, celebrated the six-month anniversary of the election by tweeting a screen grab of the late night phone call in which Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton called to concede to Republican candidate Donald Trump. Scavino promised to share video of the conversation, which he said came via a Nov. 9 phone call at 2:30 a.m. from longtime Clinton aide Huma Abedin to Trump’s then-campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway.

Scavino did not respond to an email asking when he plans to reveal the clip. He posted the message on his personal account rather than his official White House Twitter page. Scavino has previously been attacked by Democrats for using his personal account to call for the defeat of a congressman who criticized Trump. Ethics laws bar government officials from using their position to influence elections.

Conway, who is now a counselor to the president, responded to Scavino on her personal account and suggested there were people who had not yet come to grips with Trump’s victory….

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Hillary Clinton throws down about her loss…

In a sit down yesterday Clinton advised that she isn’t going away and she isn’t gonna be quiet….

She did admit that she made mistakes in last years campaign but laid most of the blame of her lost where she has previously….

On James Comes, the FBI Director….

And the Russian campaign against her…

But we must acknowledge also that Clinton was outfoxed by Republicans and Trump in the four states that gave Trump the electoral win, even though Hillary beat Trump by almost 3 Million votes overall…

This is also her second unsuccessful try to get back to the White House…There IS something to read in that….

The tough throw down from Clinton is probably the side of her that has hurt her politically in 2008/2016….But it IS good for her (And Democrats) to step up and get her anger out in public ….

Oh, and she IS part of the ‘Resistance’!…..

Hillary Clinton had kept a purposely low profile in the wake of her stunning 2016 defeat at the hands of President Donald Trump. Until Tuesday, that is.

In a sit-down interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour as part of a “Women for Women International” event in New York City, Clinton let rip on Russian interference in the election, FBI Director James Comey, misogyny, the media and, last but certainly not least, Trump.
“He should worry less about the election and me winning the popular vote and more about other things,” Clinton said.
 “Remember, I did win more than 3 million votes than my opponent,” she said.
“I’m back to being a private citizen, and part of the resistance,” she said.
It was a remarkable moment for Clinton — fierce, unapologetic and even sarcastic. It was a striking reversal from the measured public persona she had cultivated throughout her career.
What came through loud and clear — despite her assertions that she made a number of mistakes in the course of the campaign — was that Clinton believes that the election was taken from her. And that she’s still mad as hell about it…..
image…news.vice.com
Update…..

President Donald Trump on Tuesday night bashed his FBI director, James Comey, and Hillary Clinton, after Clinton placed some blame on the FBI for her loss in the 2016 election.

In two tweets published around 11 p.m. Trump said that Comey aided Clinton by not recommending charges following a probe into her use of a private email server…..

More…..

2016 Presidential Voting Analysis…Trump stole the White Working Class vote from Hillary…

This isn’t a surprise….

The number cructhers are just confirming what a lot of us had figured out…

Turnout for Democrats won’t get them the White House in 2020….

So moving the WHOLE party to the left is NOT the answer for the future….

Getting WHITE  swing voters back IS the ANSWER….

The numbers have  STRONG race implication in that white Republicans tipped the scales by narrow margins in the states that gave Trump electoral win, NOT the overal vote win….(Interestingly Obama got the swing voters for 2008/2012…Clinton did NOT)

Remember despite the larger electoral numbers for Trump?

He only won the election by less than 100,000 of 150 Million votes….

In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout.

Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected.

To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was mainly among black voters. Even there, the scale of Democratic weakness has been exaggerated.

Instead, it’s clear that large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. Over all, almost one in four of President Obama’s 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016, either supporting Mr. Trump or voting for a third-party candidate.

This analysis compares official voter files — data not available until months after the election — with The Upshot’s pre-election turnout projections in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The turnout patterns evident in these states are representative of broader trends throughout the battleground states and nationwide.

The turnout was slightly and consistently more favorable for Mr. Trump across all three states. But the turnout edge was small; in one of the closest elections in American history, it might not have represented his margin of victory….

This was part of a broader national pattern. Mr. Trump’s turnout edge was nonexistent or reversed in states with a large Hispanic population and a small black population, like Arizona. His turnout advantage was largest in states with a large black population and few Hispanic voters, like North Carolina.

What was consistent across most states, however, was higher-than-expected white turnout.

The increase in white turnout was broad, including among young voters, Democrats, Republicans, unaffiliated voters, urban, rural, and the likeliest supporters of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump. The greatest increases were among young and unaffiliated white voters.

For this reason alone, it’s hard to argue that turnout was responsible for the preponderance of Mr. Trump’s gains among white voters. The turnout among young and white Democratic voters was quite strong.

But the turnout was generally stronger among the likeliest white Trump supporters than among the likeliest white Clinton supporters….

The stronger Republican turnout among white voters narrowed the Democratic registration edge below pre-election expectations in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina…..

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There is gonn ahve to be more looks for exacyly why thios occurred…

Was it Trump, Clinton or Obama?

Surely a bit of the three and other factors….

But how much?

Donald Trump STILL lives in a Alternate Universe….

……The guy apparently doesn’t know what ACTUALLY happened in November?…..

…twitter….

Trump is tweeting today about how he “would still beat Hillary in popular vote.” Just a reminder: He lost the popular vote.

New polls out today are very good considering that much of the media is FAKE and almost always negative. Would still beat Hillary in …..

Yes…. Obama failed to warn about Trump & Company’s Russian Connections..

I asked this question early on…

“WTF didn’t President Obama sound the alarm on the Trump /Russian connections…..

Politico tries to answer it with info from a Obama Homeland advisor…

In my mind?

This IS another of Barack Obama’s mistakes as President…

And it probably cost Hillary Clinton the Presidency and will cost his legacy…

Few former officials have explained it, but in a new interview for The Global POLITICO, Lisa Monaco, President Obama’s top homeland security and counterterrorism adviser, describes a White House afraid of “doing the Russians’ work for them.” By going public before the election with evidence that the Kremlin was trying to help Donald Trump , the Obama team feared it would be accused of intervening to help Hillary Clinton. So it mostly kept quiet despite intense lobbying from fellow Democrats to say more before the voting.

That decision continues to be hotly debated months later now that the FBI has acknowledged it is investigating whether Trump or his team colluded with the Russians, and Monaco’s comments amount to the most extensive on-the-record description yet about the Obama White House’s internal thinking as it struggled to come up with a proper response to what it would eventually characterize as “unprecedented” foreign interference in a U.S. election.

“There has been this theory we didn’t do anything, which I take issue with,” Monaco says in the interview, describing a decision by the administration—despite the extraordinary nature of a series of cyberattacks targeting the American political process itself—to treat the Russian intervention using the same law enforcement-focused approach it had in previous major hacks by “malicious” state actors.

The comments by Monaco, a longtime Justice Department official who rose to become Republican-appointed director Robert Mueller’s chief of staff at the FBI before moving into senior roles in the Obama administration, came in a wide-ranging interview that focused on the sharp policy shifts Trump has promised on the issues she helped oversee in the Obama White House, from the war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria to the vetting of refugees.

Obama came into office promising to roll back what Democrats saw as the excesses of the Bush years and put in place a more sustainable approach to fighting terrorism. And Monaco, who helped lead those efforts, acknowledges that Trump may well undo much of that Obama legacy. “In this area, so much of this is by executive order, so there is no constraint,” she says. “It can go with the stroke of a pen, as we’re seeing.”…..

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It IS becoming increasing apparent that blaming FBI Director Comey   on Hillary Clinton’s  loss is INCORRECT ….

The Director WANTED to go public…But was overruled from the Obama White House which was scared of political ramifications that the Trump people could give a shit about as they muddle thru ….