I have been saying this FOREVER….
Bracak Obama was viewed MORE favorable than Hillary Clinton who has a history and is admittly qualified to BE President….
But that same history works against her also….
Democrats need to make sure that people actually come out and VOTE….Not just answer pollsters questions…..Early voting numbers are mixed and…..
Democrats can ill afford to let up on getting their voters to COME TO THE POLLS and VOTE….
…from Daily Kos…..
With one week to go until Election Day, the statistics from Monday’s early vote were, on balance, a disappointment for Democrats. It consisted of the best day of the in-person early vote period thus far for the Republicans in Nevada and also showed a (narrow) bounceback for Republicans in Florida as they continued to offset narrow in-person gains for the Democrats with larger leads among returned mail-in ballots.
Much of the online discussion of early voting this week, however, seems to be revolving around the demographic makeup of those that have participated in the process thus far. A couple of studies released over the past couple of days indicate a potentially worrisome (for Democrats, at least) dive in the participation of African-American voters in early voting. So, the questions now appear to be twofold: 1) Are the studies indicating flagging black turnout accurate? and 2) Does this necessarily portend trouble for the Democratic ticket?
One of the places where the turnout performance (or lack thereof) is a big issue is Florida, where an explosive report was published on Monday by University of Florida Prof. Daniel Smith. Smith argued that African-American proportion of the early in-person vote (with eight days left in the election) has plummeted from 25 percent of the total early vote down to 15 percent of the early vote. A rising proportion of Latino votes relative to 2012 has offset that somewhat, but the white share of the in-person early vote has risen from 60 to 64 percent, according to Smith….
On the other hand, the racial voting patterns in North Carolina are growing a little more difficult to explain. Last week, it was clear that white voters were overperforming their 2012 numbers in early voting, and African-American voters were underperforming their 2012 numbers. But the early lag in African-American in-person early voting had at least one simple potential explanation: the huge decrease in availability of early voting centers, particularly in areas with a high proportion of African-American voters.
However, with nearly 1.9 million votes tallied (according to the VoteTracker project of the conservative Civitas Insitute), there are some very troubling signs. Despite a number of “Souls to the Polls” events over the past weekend, the African-American share of the early vote in North Carolina has barely moved. As of this morning, black voters have made up 22.5 percent of the early vote. By contrast, in 2012, black voters comprised just over 27 percent of the early vote….
Here the evidence is a little more mixed, but still disconcerting. Earlier today, the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections estimated that their turnout for this election (an estimate based, in part, on early voter participation) will amount to 62 percent of registered voters. That is considerably lower than 2012, when turnout was 70 percent of registered voters. Given that (a) this is a 30 percent African-American county in a state that is only 12 percent African American, and (b) this is a county that went Democratic by a 69-30 margin in 2012, this would seem to be very bad news.
The offsetting good news, as we relayed in yesterday’s update, is that the two large Democratic vote sinks in the state (Cuyahoga and Columbus’ Franklin County) had both seen a distinct uptick in early voting performance over the weekend, putting them closer to their 2012 early vote shares, though still lagging….
Some of these numbers definitely should raise a healthy level of concern, but there is an important data point that might mitigate some potential trouble spots we’re seeing. A weekend review of polling data by Ipsos/Reuters suggests that Hillary Clinton is doing quite well among early voters in Texas, Arizona, and Ohio, and leading the overall national early vote by 15 points. We can readily explain Clinton doing well in Texas and Arizona (hint: Latino vote!), but Ohio’s story, demographically, has been that the early vote seemed to play right into Trump’s hands….