Tag Archives: 2016 Clinton Campaign

Even the Trump Campaign’s internal polling shows he’s behind….

In fact they closely mirror Five Thirty Eight’s polling numbers which put give Hillary Clinton around a 85% chance of winning the Presidency in less than two weeks….

With less than two weeks until Election Day, Donald Trump is, for the most part, still insisting to his supporters that he’s in the lead.

While he conceded in one radio interview Monday that he was “somewhat behind in the polls,” Trump said the same day that “I really believe we are winning” and claimed that “Democrats are making up phony polls.”

Members of his campaign, though, are openly admitting that the businessman is lagging behind.

Trump’s campaign manager, pollster Kellyanne Conway, also conceded that the GOP nominee was trailing, saying Sunday “we are behind.”

Although Trump says he no longer believes the polls, his internal data apparently mirrors what publicly available surveys are showing.

The campaign’s San Antonio-based research team is spending $100,000 a week on polling and is running simulations of the election, according to Bloomberg Businessweek ― and it’s coming up with results that look like most of the public forecasts, all of which give Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton an 85 percent or higher chance of victory.

“Nate Silver’s results have been similar to ours,” Brad Parscale, Trump’s digital director, told Bloomberg, “except they lag by a week or two because he’s relying on public polls.”

Silver’s website, FiveThirtyEight, currently gives Clinton a nearly 7-point national lead and shows her on track to win about 338 electoral votes to Trump’s 199….

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Inspite of ALL the month’s of noise?..The race for President is same as it was in January…

The fact is?

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton haven’t moved an inch from where they where at the beginning of the race….

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Donald Trump has for the last eight months run his road show around the country knocking his adopted party, Muslims, Mexicans, and above all Women……and oh, yea ….Hillary Clinton and her husband…

But alkl the media attention attention hasn’t changed things….

For ALL the commotion ?

Things have NOT CHANGED with the voters….

Trump NEVER led in the race and has worked VERY hard to make sure he won’t….And is now laying the ground work for his loss by saying the ssytem is rigged  and NOT that he lost due to WHO he is and what he propses to do if he got the job….

Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton are no more liked or disliked than when the year started, nor have more people come to view the prospect of their election with optimism, Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling finds. And in a head-to-head matchup, Mrs. Clinton’s 10-point lead of today is exactly where it stood in January.

Those numbers suggest that while tonight’s debate may produce dramatic moments and big headlines, it is unlikely to change the trajectory of the race. The 2016 election might seem turbulent, with its battle of personalities, hacked emails and late-night tweets. But underneath, there has been more stability than volatility.

Mr. Trump started the year with 29% of voters saying they viewed him in a positive light, Journal/NBC News polling found. Today, that share is again at 29%.

Mrs. Clinton started the year with 40% of voters viewing her in a positive light. Today, the share remains at 40%.

In February, 33% of voters said they would feel optimistic or satisfied if Mr. Trump were elected president, and 43% said so of Mrs. Clinton. Now, those shares are nearly identical.

And asked in January which candidate they would pick for president, 51% of voters chose Mrs. Clinton and 41% Mr. Trump—the same levels of support as today….

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image…varity.com

Clinton campaign looking at getting Arizona also…

Can Hillary Clin ton run up the score to a land slide victory size?

After two tumultuous weeks focused on Donald Trump’s behavior toward women, Clinton is ahead in nearly all of the key battleground states where her campaign has directed the most resources, according to many recent polls. But some once-solidly Republican states — notably Arizona, Georgia and Utah — now also appear to be in play.

Clinton aides said they see advantages to running up the score in the electoral college, where 270 votes wins the White House. Victories in unexpected places could boost that total, handing her more of a mandate come January and decreasing the potency of Trump’s complaints of a “rigged” election.

But victories in core battleground states such as Pennsylvania and New Hampshire would almost assuredly cut off Trump’s path as well….

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Michelle Obama pushes for Women to vote Clinton….

The American First Lady implores Women to rise up and vote against Donald Trump due to his actions against Women…..(More has been pouring out in the last 24 hours)

She is working the ‘Women’s Vote that Donald Trump has been losing from the beginning of the 2016 Presidential Campaign….

First lady Michelle Obama delivered a powerful and emotional rebuke to Donald Trump on Thursday, saying his vulgar comments on sexual assault “have shaken me to my core,” while calling on women to rise up against the Republican nominee.

“The fact is in this election we have a candidate for president of the United States who over the course of his lifetime and the course of this campaign has said things about women that are so shocking, so demeaning, I simply will not repeat anything here today,” she said at a campaign rally in New Hampshire. “And last week we saw this candidate actually bragging about sexual assaulting women. I can’t believe I’m saying that a candidate for president of the United States has bragged about sexually assaulting women.”

Her voice breaking at times, Obama warned the crowd that “I’m going to get a little serious here, because I think we can all agree that this has been a rough week in an already rough election.” She said remarks from Trump recorded in 2005, in which he crudely described language how his celebrity allowed him to sexually assault women without consequence, constituted “hurtful, hateful language.”

“Language that has been painful for so many of us,” she continued. “Not just as women, but as parents trying to protect our children and raise them to be caring, respectful adults. And as citizens who think our nation’s leaders should meet basic standards of human decency.”

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Clinton…’What kind of genius loses a billion dollars?’

DONALD J. TRUMP.……

On getting the tax write off for the loses?

‘I was Smart’…..

Hillary Clinton ripped Donald Trump over the report in The New York Times that he may have turned a nearly $1 billion loss into 15 years of not owing taxes, saying he was “taking from America with both hands, leaving the rest of us with the bill.”

The tax story was the centerpiece of Clinton’s argument on the economy, which came in the swing state of Ohio — which the Democratic presidential nominee had not visited since Labor Day.
“While millions of American families, including mine and yours, were working hard, paying our fair share, it seems he was contributing nothing to our nation,” she said during the rally in Toledo.

“He’s been dissing America in this whole campaign. He talks us down, makes disparaging comments about our country, calls our military a disaster. It’s not, but it might have been if everyone else had failed to pay taxes to support our great men and women in uniform.”….

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Trump to try run against Clinton’s Foundation?…WTF about HIS?..What about HIS Taxes?

The Trump campaign is really in another world….

Reports of them thinking of going negative against Hillary and Bill Clinton for their Foundation, which HAS moved money, aid, serives and supplies to those in need and NOT paid the Clinton is to be compared to Trump’s which has done little except PAY Trump and His Family seems a bit unbelievable …..

Donald Trump’s campaign is signaling that its new, post-first-debate message will be an attack on Hillary Clinton’s finances, under the catchphrase “Follow the money.” This is probably Trump’s most fruitful avenue of attack. The Clinton Foundation has created appearances of a conflict of interest, and the Clintons’ policy of accepting speaking fees from any source as long as the check would clear the bank has tarnished her image, and months of bashing at the hands of Bernie Sanders left her branded in the mind of many young liberals as a handmaiden of Wall Street.

And yet the notion that a voter ought to support Trump over Clinton on grounds of financial ethics or transparency is insane. Trump is corrupt on a world-historic scale. Andrew Prokop’s summary merely skims the surface of a career that has left hardly any rule or norm of business conduct un-violated. It is not only Trump’s history of misconduct, or even his ongoing abuse of his foundation for personal gain, but his astonishing promise, if elected, to continue to abuse his power to enrich himself by having his children manage his branded business that he will enhance via public office.

Even if none of that were true, it remains the case that Trump has shattered modern precedent by refusing to disclose his tax returns. How on Earth can a candidate run on the slogan “Follow the money” while stonewalling any questions about his own money? The only possible context in which this makes sense is a myopic, context-free focus on Clinton’s ethical shortcomings, combined with the assumption that Trump’s dangerous lunacy amounts to some kind of independence from big moneyed interests….

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Update….

It appears that Trump’s foundation doesn’t have a license to solicit money….It has’t EVER had one ….

Donald Trump’s charitable foundation — which has been sustained for years by donors outside the Trump family — has never obtained the certification that New York requires before charities can solicit money from the public, according to the state attorney general’s office….

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Open Thread for Sept. 22, 2016… Donald Trump IS running out of Time….

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Donald J. Trump  being Trump made a batch of bad moves in the last two weeks just as his poll numbers had started to look better….While Trump had some Democrats worried with his polling climb…..

Trump just HAS to BE Trump…..

That  has resulted in Trump’s jump up in the polls seemingly coming to an end as Clinton’s General Election numbers seem to be climbing….

That adage floated during the GOP primaries that Trump is NOT able to get support much past  40% of the voter’s is  probably correct….

The Democrats are  starting to bear down on their ‘Get Out the Vote’ push….

Trump has no such effort….

Trump is now hiding from the Media except for Fox News….(He has the Washington Post STEADILY on his case….)

So….

While people are ALREADY voting.….

Clinton’s poll numbers are getting better….

The clock IS already running on the election vote ….

image…politicususa.com

Clinton won’t let go of Trump’s Birther campaign against Obama

With the happenings in NYC /NJ this weekend Donald Trump and his team have had his Birther apology……non-apology (and effort to pin the blame on the whoile thing on Clinton) slipped out of the Media cycle….

Hillary Clinton on Tuesday said she is “appalled” that Donald Trump has not apologized to President Barack Obama after spending years questioning his birthplace.

“I wanna build on the progress that President Obama has made during a very tumultuous time,” Clinton told “The Steve Harvey Morning Show.” “I mean, I’m appalled that Donald Trump will not apologize to the president and to the country for spending years questioning his citizenship and attempting to delegitimize him. And President Obama and Michelle Obama have kept their heads high. Like Michelle says, when they go low, we go high. And we gotta stay high. We gotta stay focused.”

Trump on Friday made a much-hyped announcement regarding the conspiracy theory the now-Republican presidential nominee began pushing years ago. His statement, however, lacked an apology and falsely pinned the blame on Clinton for igniting the so-called “birther” issue…..

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REALITY…..Donald Trump’s chances of becoming President are STILL SLIM…

 

Everyday we are bombarded by breathless media stories about EVERY little utterance from the New York Real Estate guy, turned Entertainer, turned Politician…..

We are shown national poll numbers 50 or days out that show Trump doing well in Red States and close in some Blue states……

Very few if ANY media outlets go to the numbers that count though….

American President;s are NOT elected by the popular vote on election day…

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They are actually elected in December when states get together at home and reveal THEIR vote totals for President, state by state in what is called the Electoral College vote….

Trump will need to amass 270 Electoral votes from the 50 states to win the Presidential race come November….

By those who count?

Hillary Clinton is ABOVE the 270 threshold right now and it will be VERY difficult for Donald Trump to get to that number ……

It is beyond dispute that Donald Trump has the momentum in the presidential race. It is also beyond dispute that he still has an in­cred­ibly narrow path to get to 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Let’s start with the two most important numbers in this election: 18 and 13.

Eighteen is the number of states every Democratic presidential nominee has carried in each of the past six presidential elections, dating to 1992. Add in the District of Columbia, which also fits the bill, and you get 242 electoral votes.

Thirteen is the number of states every Republican presidential nominee has won in those same presidential elections. Add them up, and you get 102 electoral votes.

You do not have to be a Fields Medal winner to quickly grasp Republicans’ problem: Their party starts in a significant electoral-college hole, fueled by several states with large populations — California, New York and Illinois, to name three — that are among the most reliably Democratic in the country.

That problem existed before Trump was even a glint in the eye of Republican voters. And it is likely to exist well beyond whatever happens to Trump on Nov. 8. But what it means in practical terms is that even as the race has tightened at both the national and swing-state level, Clinton retains far more paths to 270 electoral votes.

Consider this: If Clinton wins the 18 states plus the District that every Democrat has won since 1992 and also wins Florida (and its 29 electoral votes), she is president. If Clinton wins those 18, the nation’s capital and Ohio (18 electoral votes) and Virginia (13 electoral votes), it’s over.

There are lots of other ways for Clinton to get to 270 or beyond….

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His recent surge has brought him back into contention. But it has not vaulted him ahead.

The task before him is the equivalent of threading a very narrow needle with 300 million people (or so) watching. That’s possible but far from likely. Still.

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image…salon.com

Bernie Sanders is out hustling votes for Hillary Clinton…

For those who thought he wouldn’t?

You got it wrong….

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And Hillary Clinton needs the help from young voters…

Sanders joins President Obama and others in ‘Get Out the Vote’ efforts for Democrats….

Sen. Bernie Sanders returned to the campaign trail Saturday to pitch Hillary Clinton to his base of young supporters — but not all millennials are with her yet.

“I’m still undecided,” said 23-year old Kent State University student Feagin Oliver when asked who she would support in the presidential election.

Oliver came to see Sanders’ second Ohio surrogate event of the day at Kent State University because she supported him passionately in the primary. But the Vermont senator has not yet been able to convince her to support Clinton.

“It’s gonna take a little while to earn trust back for sure,” said Oliver, who explained that leaked emails from the Democratic National Committee showing preference for Clinton during the primary still factors into her decision….

Sanders, who consistently beat Clinton in the primaries among young voters, has been working to draw them back to the Democratic nominee with an anti-Trump/fear-Trump message combined with a push to get out the vote.

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image….pix11.com

Trump says Clinton want’s to get rid of the American borders?…NOT TRUE!…

ANOTHER attempt by Donald Trump to get the spotlight away from the Birther issue…

Hes out with this is Bull Shit….

He’s trying to dupe the Media AGAIN?….

Donald Trump promised justice to the families of people killed by undocumented immigrants, as he wrongly claimed that Hillary Clinton wants to “abolish” the country’s borders during a speech here Saturday morning.

“Hillary Clinton is the first person in history to run for the presidency who is proposing to abolish the borders around the country that she is supposed to protect,” Trump said.

The statement, which is not remotely close to being true, drew boos from the audience in a hotel ballroom at the first annual conference of a group called The Remembrance Project. While Clinton believes in a path to citizenship and supports continuing the Obama administration’s controversial policy of allowing DREAMers to remain in the country, she has never advocated to halt deportations of undocumented immigrants convicted of crimes or to reduce or end border enforcement.

Trump also blamed Clinton for the 13,000 “criminal aliens” the government released back into communities from 2008-14 even though she was, as secretary of state during Obama’s first term, focused on and responsible for diplomacy abroad, not domestic issues like immigration enforcement.

Trump’s speech, delivered from a teleprompter in a much more somber tone than his remarks to larger crowds at rallies, marked a subtle return to base politics even as his campaign is attempting to finally sand down the sharper edges of his policy proposals and general election pitch to the country….

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The Presidential race HAS tightened…Advatage STILL Clinton….

Sam Wang over at the Princeton Election Consortium is out with a piece this morning that whole heartily agree with….

Yes, the 2016 Presidential Race HAS closed….

Yes, Hillary Clinton IS leading and the odds STILL favor her…..

But Donald Trump’s support seems to be a bit stronger than we thought it would be….And Hillary Clinton HAS had a few bad days…..Trump has had so many bad days they don’t seem to count anymore….

But Trump IS back to his Republican primary thing of blanketing the media with himself and THAT contrasts with Clinton NOT wanting to do the same….

Wang thinks that undecided voters ARE breaking for Donald Trump now that his new campaign team is trying to channel their candidate into a more conventional Republican mode….(It doesn’t stick…his current Birther episode is a prime example….The Handers say one thing…Trump  does NOT follow….)

Wang expects Hillary Clinton to move back up in the polls after the first debate in a rerun of President Obama’s mid October narrowing running against Mitt Romney four years ago…Wang thinks the debate will help Clinton…

He also factors in the Clinton ground game in the state’s and Trump lack of anything near Clinton’s…

He probably is looking at things the same as most pundits who seem to feel that the national polls are ahead of the state polls which have a bit less movement …..

National polls currently show Clinton ahead by only 1.0 ± 0.6 % (median ± estimated SEM, 7 pollsters with at least some post-Phlegmghazi respondents). However, our state poll-based analysis moves more slowly. Therefore I expect the Meta-Margin to keep on moving toward Trump for at least a week as state poll medians catch up. To get an idea of where things are headed, see electoral-vote.com, whose main map displays the most recent single poll for each state and therefore is noisier than my calculation – but more up-to-the-moment.

I estimate that if we had up-to-date data in all states, in an election held today the Presidential outcome would be extremely close, approximately like the map below.


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

For Democrats, it is a good thing that the election is not today. But as Glenn Thrush at POLITICO points out, there are lots of ways for Clinton to recover.

Today, I will go over some data-based reasons for Clinton supporters (and Trump opponents) to be concerned, at least until the debate. The underlying cause of Trump’s rise appears to be uncommitted Republican voters coming home….

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