Larry Sabato @ Politico on the Senate/House and Governors…8/25/14

At the moment, there are 11 Senate contests (two seats held by Republicans, nine by Democrats) with polling margins of less than 10 points, so history suggests Democrats might be expected to win just three or four of those contests, with three victories giving Republicans a one-seat majority and four wins leaving Democrats in power via a 50-50 tie and Vice President Joe Biden’s tie-breaking vote.

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Nate Silver on the accuracy of todays polling….NOT!

There is no shortage of reasons to worry about the state of the polling industry. Response rates to political polls are dismal. Even polls that make every effort to contact a representative sample of voters now get no more than 10 percent to complete their surveys — down from about 35 percent in the 1990s.

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Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest 8/25/14… Don’t believe the Scott Brown hype

NH-Sen: Like the small state it’s in, the University of New Hampshire receives outsized attention when it comes to politics. Thanks to their regular polling of a state that often hosts contested elections (not to mention its first-in-the-nation presidential primary), UNH has ensured that political observers will always talk about the data it churns out, justified or not.

And it’s not justified. UNH is one of the worst pollsters out there.

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Daily Kos…Democrats have 47% chance of holding the Senate (right now)

And there’s one more quirk here, too. If you look closely at the specific races, you’ll notice that the Democrats have greater than 50 percent odds of winning 50 individual races….

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Political Roundup for August 25th, 2014…About that NH Poll with Scott close to Shaheen?…Red Racing Horses

NH-Sen: Normally I’d leave this to the afternoon roundup since it revolves around a poll, but the story here is how the poll has shaken up the race. A recent UNH poll has this Senate election at 46-44 Shaheen, which is considerably closer than what other polls have shown recently, and it’s sparked a whole set of stories about Brown closing in. This is surprising given that it’s a single poll from UNH (a notoriously wild pollster), but it has caused people to look closer at an election most pundits had relegated to “Likely D”.

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As the President moves to go after ISIS/ISIL… What to do with Congress?

The irony is that Obama just one year ago declared he would cut back the very authority his aides are now reconsidering. He pledged to chart a new path forward when he laid out his vision for a new comprehensive national security strategy to guide U.S. foreign policy.

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Middle East Update 8/25/14…Syria warns against ISIS air strikes…Egypt and UAE do airstrikes in Libya…

Syria warned the United States on Monday not to extend its air war against radical Islamist militants into Syria, saying that it would regard any attempt to do so as an act of “aggression.”

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Mass Poll….Hillary LEADS Warren for President…

More than three times as many Massachusetts Democrats would vote for Hillary Clinton if she ran for president in 2016 than would back the state’s senior senator, Elizabeth Warren, according to a poll released Monday by Suffolk University and The Boston Herald.

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Will the President go around Congress soon with Executive Actions?

Gutiérrez made his prediction again on Friday, listing not only an expansion of Obama’s 2012 deferred deportation program, but measures easing restrictions that businesses and farmers say are hurting their workers.

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How about recalling Ferguson’s Mayor?

THAT would one way to change things …. If the RESIDENTS of that town want it…. But I’m betting that it won’t happen…. I’m betting that MOST of the people in protests out there CAN’T vote in a recall election …

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The US Keeps 34,000 Immigrants in Detention Each Day by law…

The quota is written into the federal law that appropriates funding for ICE. Congress requires the agency to “maintain a level of not less than 34,000 detention beds” at any given time. The quota was first enacted in 2007, and it appears yet again in the 2015 appropriations bill currently pending in the House of Representatives.

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Daily Kos Elections Power Rankings 8/24/14…The Senate (back to school edition)

Evidence of the dissipation of the “primary effect” comes in our biggest mover this month. Michigan vaulted from out of the top ten into the No. 3 position this month, despite the fact that the identities of the two partisan nominees (Democratic Rep. Gary Peters and former GOP Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land) have been known since the beginning.

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President Obama has backing from Democratic Senators fighting for their seats…

Democrats in tough Senate election fights aren’t running away from the White House on Iraq — at least not yet.

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Nothing on Ferguson from Hillary…..

Hillary Clinton ignored reporters’ questions about the racial conflict in Ferguson in Missouri on Sunday at the end of a book-signing event in Westhampton, a vacation enclave near her rented summer house.

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Police body camera’s help everybody….

What happens when police wear cameras isn’t simply that tamper-proof recording devices provide an objective record of an encounter—though some of the reduction in complaints is apparently because of citizens declining to contest video evidence of their behavior—but a modification of the psychology of everyone involved.

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The Democrats get serious about keeping their Senate seat in Arkansas

For the next two months Democrats hope in Arkansas and in other southern and western states is gonna rest on voter turnout….

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