With 99.9% of the Iowa vote in…This is how things stand…

Preliminary results from early Tuesday morning with all but one precinct (in Iowa County) reporting:

27.65% — ( 51,649 ) — Cruz*
24.31% — ( 45,416 ) — Trump
23.09% — ( 43,132 ) — Rubio
_9.31% — ( 17,393 ) — Carson

4.54% — ( 8,478 ) — Paul
2.80% — ( 5,235 ) — Bush
1.86% — ( 3,483 ) — Fiorina
1.86% — ( 3,473 ) — Kasich
1.79% — ( 3,344 ) — Huckabee
1.75% — ( 3,278 ) — Christie
0.95% — ( 1,783 ) — Santorum

0.06% — ( 119 ) — Other

0.01% — ( 12 ) — Gilmore

  • Winner

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According to “Republican Party presidential candidates, 2016” on Wikipedia,

This is the current casualty list among the 17 original GOP candidates at the first pair of debates, with dates of withdrawal or suspension:

[2015, before Iowa caucus]
Sept. 11 — ex-Gov. Rick Perry (Texas)
Sept. 21 — Gov. Scott Walker (Wisconsin)
Nov. 17 — Gov. Bobby Jindal (Louisiana)
Dec. 21 — Sen. Lindsey Graham (S. Carolina)
Dec. 29 — ex-Gov. George Pataki (New York)

[2016}
Feb. 1 — ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee (Arkansas)
Feb. 3 — Sen. Rand Paul (Kentucky)
Feb. 3 — ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania)

Leaving just these nine at the moment (in the order, between March 23 and July 30, 2015, in which they declared their candidacies)

March-April
Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas)
Sen. Marco Rubio (Florida)

May
Dr. Ben Carson (Maryland)
Ms. Carly Fiorina (Calif.)

June
ex-Gov. Jeb Bush (Florida)
Mr. Donald Trump (New York)
Gov. Chris Christie (New Jersey)

July
Gov. John Kasich (Ohio)
ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (Virginia)

DSD….

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The Bookies NOW favor Marco Rubio to win the GOP nomination…

So HAVE I….

FiveThirtyEight looks @ Betfair which has now moved Donald Trump from the odds favorite to win the GOP Presidential nomination to second place….

Marco Rubio finished in third in Iowa — a “strong third” in which he outperformed his polls, but third nevertheless. And yet, his chances of winning the Republican nomination nearly doubled according to the bookmaker Betfair, from about 30 percent before the Iowa caucuses to 55 percent now.1 Meanwhile, Donald Trump, who finished ahead of Rubio although behind Ted Cruz, saw his chances halved from 50 percent to 25 percent.

Even if you acknowledge the importance of the “expectations game,” isn’t that a little excessive? Well, maybe.2 But I think Betfair is coming up with approximately the right answer…..

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Trump adds just one staffer to New Hampshire effort…

He’s WAY ahead in the New Hampshire GOP Primary

polls….

So he’s gone against the judgment of his staff and added only ONE more person to efforts in New Hampshire as of today….

Ah,?

The polls where wrong in Iowa and the voters in New Hampshire are KNOW for changing their minds from those poll answers up there….

IF Trump comes in second AGAIN?

He’s in trouble for REAL….

…..six days from the New Hampshire primary and looking for his first win, Trump is still refusing to shake up his ground game. He has added just one paid organizer in the state, a move that came a month ago. Instead, he is pushing ahead with plans to campaign outside of the state in the final week of voting and will count on the glamour of famous surrogates, including his sons, who plan to tour New Hampshire beginning this weekend.
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Even as Republicans here warn that Trump does not appear to have the ground game to match his sky-high expectations and the campaign grapples with internal disagreements about investments in infrastructure, campaign manager Corey Lewandowski said Trump should and would stay the course heading into Monday’s primary.

“Two completely separate states, two very different races,” he said. “No Republican in the history of the modern Republican Party other than an incumbent president has won both the states of Iowa and New Hampshire.”

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Santorum dropping out of GOP Race for President…

Image result for santorum

The shakeout continues….

All of this moving towards a smaller group vs the Donald Trump lead and good news for Marco Rubio…and maybe Ted Cruz…

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum will end his campaign Wednesday, CNN is reporting.

The former Pennsylvania senator is slated to make two announcements Wednesday night during an appearance on Fox News, according to host Greta Van Susteren.

Santorum, who was the GOP presidential runner-up in 2012, took 11th place with just 1 percent support in the Iowa caucuses Monday after winning the state during his previous White House bid….

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image..ibtimes.com

Update….

Santorum has endorsed MARCO RUBIO

Not Ted Cruz….

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Bernie Sanders to get a Secret Service detail…

With good sized crowds and a call for a ‘political, economic and social revolution ‘ he should get the protection detail….

Bernie Sanders will receive Secret Service protection, the Department of Homeland Security confirmed to POLITICO on Wednesday.

“Following an official request from the campaign, and after consultation with a congressional advisory committee pursuant to the statutorily prescribed process, Secretary of Homeland Jeh Johnson authorized United States Secret Service protection for presidential candidate Bernie Sanders,” a spokeswoman from DHS told POLITICO in an email

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Note….

Ben Carson should lose his detail and ted Cruz and Rubio should get protection if they request it like the Sanders campaign has…..

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Ted Cruz … GOPer’s and Latino’s?…Daily Kos….

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), with his wife Heidi, arrives to address a Tea Party rally against the Iran nuclear deal at the U.S. Capitol in Washington September 9, 2015. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst - RTSD9P

 image….Reutes
Ted Cruz, asshole

Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus:

The liberal bias alarm is sounding. Ted Cruz, a Republican senator from Texas, just became the first Latino candidate to win a presidential caucus or primary, and conservatives are complaining that the mainstream media is overlooking the achievement.

“Where is the media on this, right?” Republican National Committee Chair Reince Priebus said Tuesday in an interview on Fox News Channel. “I mean, this is a big deal.”

Aside from the fact that as a Cuban-Canadian, Cruz’s “Latino” experience is at odds with the vast majority of US Latinos, and also aside from the fact that everyone fucking hates Cruz, so no one will give him any benefit of the doubt, fact is that Cruz has done everything possible (short of changing his name) to run away from everything that makes him a Latino.

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The Marines F-35B can’t do the job it was made for….

Neither does the Air Force’s F-35A for that matter….

The ‘one size jet fits everytrhing’ debacle continues at the tax payers expense….

The Block 2B version of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which the Marine Corps declared operational in July last year, is not capable of unsupported combat against any serious threat, according to Michael Gilmore, the Pentagon’s director of operational test and evaluation (DOT&E). In a 48-page annual project report to be published shortly, a copy of which was obtained by Aviation Week, the DOT&E states that “the F-35B Block 2B aircraft would need to avoid threat engagement… in an opposed combat scenario, and would require augmentation by other friendly forces.”

Most of the same limitations will apply to the U.S. Air Force’s initial operational capability (IOC) version, the F-35A Block 3i. “Since no capabilities were added to Block 3i, only limited corrections to deficiencies, the combat capability of the initial operational Block 3i units will not be noticeably different.”

The report is “factually accurate,” the F-35 Joint Program Office concedes in an official response, but “does not fully address program efforts to resolve known technical challenges and schedule risks.” Lockheed Martin said it endorsed the program office’s views….

More…..

image….securityaffairs,co

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Marco Rubio moves his game up….

The Florida GOP US Senator , who can come across as ‘I Robot’ moves to solidify his postion as the establishment rival to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz….

Rubio was knocked for a lackof commitment of a ground game in Iowa…

He’s trying to fix that in New Hampshire….

Many leaders of the Republican establishment, as they praised Mr. Rubio over the past six months, predicted that the Florida senator would become a major force in the primary and shift the race away from the more conservative candidates. New Hampshire may be that moment. Mr. Rubio will be in the state every day until the primary on Tuesday. Scores of volunteers will hit the streets with the goal of reaching thousands of homes. Last weekend they hit 10,000.

On the fund-raising front, his team has begun a concerted and continuous push to persuade donors who are either undecided or backing candidates like former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida that it is time to climb aboard the Rubio train. The pitch, which supporters began making in phone calls and text messages on Monday night just minutes after the networks called the race, is blunt and self-assured: The Republican race has narrowed to a three-man contest….

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image…politico.com

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Democrats and Nevada….

TPM is out with a piece that gives the impression that Bernie Sanders MAY have a lead into being compeditive in Nevada because of Sanders young voters attraction in Iowa….

But Clinton is at 50% ahead of Sanders @ 28.5% in the FiveThirtyEigth forecast and at 19% ahead of Sanders in the RealClear Politics Polling average….

Nevada will hold its first Caucus on the 23rd of this month…BEFORE the South Carolina Democratic Primary which up 3 days later and will have Hillary Clinton as the hands on favorite….

The belief is that once Clinton makes it past the ultra-white contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, where Sen. Bernie Sanders has a substantial lead in the polls ahead of next week’s primary, she can bank on a more diverse demographic– and particularly Latinos and African-Americans — to bulwark her support in the states that follow.

That back-up plan will get its first true test in Nevada, which hosts a Democratic caucus Feb. 20. It is home to a Latino electorate expected to make up one-fifth of the state’s 2016 voters, along with sizable African-American and Asian-American populations.

It’s a place where Clinton has invested a considerable ground game, having won a majority of the popular vote in the 2008 caucus but losing in the delegate count to then-Sen. Barack Obama. But Nevada is also a state that is still finding its footing on the early primary calendar, meaning she and Sanders don’t have much of a conventional party network to exploit.

“Nevada is different than Iowa and New Hampshire because it’s just new at this. You don’t have those sort of pathways that are well known in those states,” said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas.

It’s that sort of blank slate that might make Nevada attractive to the Sanders campaign — which has amped up its efforts there and has already shown an interest in reaching out to young, first-time Latino voters

Early numbers suggest that his campaign was he was able to turn out the burgeoning Latino population in Iowa after an notable outreach campaign…..

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Iowa and New Hampshire also lack nonwhite voters, who form a huge part of the Democratic base. Can Sanders win over some of these voters? Clinton has held a lead among nonwhites of nearly 40 percentage points in national polls. In Nevada, which votes after the New Hampshire primary, the electorate for the Democratic caucuses in 2008 was 15 percent Hispanic and 15 percent black. After Nevada comes South Carolina, where a majority of Democratic voters will be black. Our polls-only forecast in South Carolina gives Clinton a 94 percent chance to win, and our polls-plus forecast gives her a 96 percent chance to win….

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Cam Newton…Race or On field actions question?

The sports media just can’t stop Cam Newton about RACE….

As a Big Black NFL Quarterback for the Carolina Pathers,  going to the Super Bowl,  he is hard to miss ….

But Newton has been carrying his color on his back instead of kudo’s for the fact that he IS a VERY GOOD QB…..

Newton has no problem in celebrating his acomplishments on the field….

But then haven’t other white guys?

A larger percentage of NFL fans believe that Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton faces criticism because of his actions on the field than because of his race, according to a survey produced for ESPN by Langer Research Associates and released Wednesday.

Nearly two out of three fans — 62 percent — believe that any criticism of Newton is because of his style of play on the field (63 percent of white fans and 38 percent of black fans). Only 14 percent think it’s because of his race.

The number of people who think race is part of how Newton is perceived is significantly higher among blacks who responded to the survey — 34 percent think criticism is racially based, while 38 percent think it’s for his flashy style.

Newton, who has talked about race throughout the season, said last week that: “I’ve said this since day one. I’m an African-American quarterback that scares people because they haven’t seen nothing that they can compare me to.”

More….

image…sportingnews.com

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Will Trump organize or just stay large and cheap?

Donald Trump has HIS way of running for President….

He engages the media with tweets, endless phone calls and outragious rants….

He flys in , rants, then flys out…..(He seldom does fact to face retail campaigning)

THAT is how you campaign in the general election in the end….

NOT how you campaign in party primaries and caucues in the beginning…..

And…..It seems that he’s gonna keep at things HIS way in New Hampshire….

Trump’s campaign lacked the voter-targeting and turnout capabilities to translate a 7-point polling lead in Iowa into a win in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, and his disappointing second-place finish hinted at potential trouble for him in upcoming states that should otherwise be more favorable.

Cruz and Rubio’s campaigns ran circles around Trump’s bare-bones operation, which gambled that Trump’s star appeal could overpower modern organizing tactics, and relied instead on big rallies, an outlandish social media presence, a flashy endorsement from Sarah Palin and a late advertising blitz to try to get supporters to the polls.

Trump’s backers maintain that the most painful part of his loss to Cruz, by a 3.3-percentage-point margin, is that it never should have happened. Trump actually won the battle for supporters, they believe, especially among nontraditional Republican voters, but he lacked the tools to get them to participate in Iowa’s Byzantine caucus system. As a result, a candidate who could have been vaulted into New Hampshire with huge momentum on top of an impressive polling lead is instead looking shrunken and chastened.

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When Donald Trump returned to the Granite State on Tuesday with all the trappings of his usual campaign events – the bright lights and hoards of supporters wearing Trump paraphernalia – something was different.

The Republican businessman didn’t start off by listing his first-place status in major polls like usual; instead, he explained his second-place finish in Iowa as an accomplishment.

“I am very proud of us,” Trump said during a campaign rally in Milford. “I come in second, I am not humiliated.”

For the first time in months, Trump’s front-runner status is coming into question after he was bested by Ted Cruz in Iowa. That uncertainty is creating an opening for his Republican rivals a week before the New Hampshire primary.

“What is going to happen to Trump’s support here?

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Note….

Well, not SO cheap….

Turns out he lent his campaign more than $10 mil for Iowa…

image…businessinsider.com

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Do NOT believe the Poll numbers out today for the NH Presidential Primary….

Most polling running now is tracking polls….

They have Trump up by 20% pts…..

They have Sanders up by around 30% pts…..

THAT is NOT gonna be the final numbers….

We’ve just come off Iowa where the pundits and pollsters got the final numbers WRONG….

I don’t know what the results will be next Tuesday….

Nobody does….

But New Hampshire is KNOWN for it’s last minute vote swings and while Hillary Clinton is running 30% behind in the tracking polls?

New hampshireA ARG regular poll has her within 6% pst…..

In addition, Donald Trump still isn’t doing retail politicking …..He’s staying with the big crowd thing that got him in second place in Iowa…

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Rand Paul drops his 2016 Presidential effort…

The Liberterian GOP Senator from Kentucky is out….

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is suspending his campaign and dropping out of the presidential race.

“It’s been an incredible honor to run a principled campaign for the White House. Today, I will end where I began, ready and willing to fight for the cause of liberty,” he said in a statement.

The decision follows a disappointing finish in the Iowa caucuses, where Paul won just 4.5 percent of the vote for a fifth place showing.
He’s also faced criticism from some Republicans who want him to focus on his Senate reelection bid in a year where Democrats are threatening to retake the Senate.

Paul has struggled with lackluster fundraising and polling that has kept him on the bubble of the GOP main debate stage. He boycotted the Fox Business undercard debate in January after failing to make the main stage, but squeaked back into the primetime debate for a Fox News debate later that month.

Paul is the second GOP casualty of the Iowa caucuses. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee dropped out of the race Monday night after finishing in a tie for ninth place in Iowa….

More….

image…slade.com

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Humble last night in his loss…Trump gets back to his noise making…

Before the media last night Donald Trump the performer had NO show….

He lost….

One gets the impression that Trump , for all his bravado ….Is indeed a human being, when he addressed a possible loss in Iowa a few days before the contest…So when he DID lose…Just coming in second. an inch from third place Marco Rubio , he WAS just a guy who lost….

Politico reports that he has;t lost his media audience though….

Today, surrounded by a reportedly 50 media people he got back in character….

He sort to spin his loss as a WIN…

He wasn’t remorseful that he missed a debate…

But he WAS  reflective though on the issue and the fact that he had NOT played the game by the old political rules in Iowa….

After the Q & A ?

Trump went out to do a 5,000 person event….

Just the thing he did in Iowa….

The place he lost….

“How come the person who comes in third is being covered like its one of the great victories of any election?” Trump said. “A first time politician comes in second, but ‘No, that’s not very good’.”

But then he pivoted back to his usual targets — the “dishonest” news media that doesn’t accurately report his crowds and goes easy on Rubio; Democrats like President Obama, the “criminal” Hillary Clinton and “stupid” John Kerry; and the Canada-born Cruz.

“He gets elected president, they’re going to sue his ass off,” said Trump, clearly regaining his mojo 40 minutes into his speech as the crowd cheered and laughed in all the right places.

He again mocked Jeb Bush, the once presumptive front-runner who finished a distant sixth in Iowa despite his super PAC and campaign combined far outspending the rest of the field. “Bush spent almost $3,000 a vote. That’s got to be a record,” he said. “Can you check the Guinness Book of Records?”

“Just promise everybody a thousand bucks and he could have won.”

As his monologue neared the hour mark, Trump was back to being Trump — his rising voice dripping with derision, bravado and profanity. He wasn’t talking about winning elections. He was talking about winning, period.

“Wouldn’t you want Trump as president if someone attacks us?” he asked as he riffed on national security. “We’d beat the shit out of them.”

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Note….

One could have guessed that Trump would go into this post-lost mode….

Oh, and he waited 15 hours before recovering and working twitter again….

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Martin O’Malley, and Mike Huckabee throw in the towel…

The two lower tier candiadtes suspended their campaigns last night after lackluster showings in Iowa…

Image result for o'malley/huckabee

Martin O’Malley and Mike Huckabee ended their presidential campaigns Monday after failing to register in the Iowa caucuses.

The two former governors had banked on a strong showing in the Hawkeye State to buoy their candidacies, but failed to gain traction against better-funded operations and an election season marked by voter desire for anti-establishment candidates….

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image..unionleader.com

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The Republicans HAD a Ted Cruz WIN ‘A comin….’It was just a matter of Time…

They HAVE planted the seeds by ALLOWING the RightWingNuts in their party to  go on unchallenged …..

You know….

Government shutdowns…

Challenging people who did NOT follow their ideological line etc……

Now the Senator that the party people hate is causing them the ‘Willies’…..

The Republican Party did not decide to elevate Ted Cruz to frontrunner status. To the contrary, Republicans (and many others) compared Cruz to Barry Goldwater, and, rather bafflingly, made a concerted effort to weaken Cruz in a way they never did to Trump.

But over the past several years Republican leaders made a variety of decisions that prefigured both the Trump phenomenon and Cruz’s Iowa victory:

  • The decision to organize a hysterical scorched earth obstruction and propaganda campaign against President Obama, priming Republican voters to expect their party to elevate unyielding Obama antagonists.
  • The decision to allow the faces of the conservative entertainment complex to become influential party actors.
  • The decision to grant a reactionary faction of elected Republicans veto power over the party’s agenda, and to reject the conclusion that the party’s foremost imperative was to be more welcoming to minorities and immigrants…

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