Sixty Four Days To The Next Big Mass Shooting: America’s Problem With Violence…The Oligarch Kings….


Jeb Bush is in trouble. Well, European media is unhappy with his remarks about the latest school shootings. Following the atrocities at Umpqua Oregon, he appears to have simply shrugged his shoulders and said “Stuff happens” whilst walking away. Trump too just said “people slip through the cracks” and dismissed it at that. My email box has received comments from readers of the blog (mostly foreign non-American readers) incredulous that this can even happen.

Two hundred and seventy four days into 2015 and we have already had 294 mass shootings in the USA. A mass shooting being defined as where four or more people are shot in any one incident. The atrocity at Umpqua Oregon was merely the 45th school shooting in 2015. We may expect the next “Big mass event shooting” that will capture the news headlines in a little under 64 days’ time. Meanwhile we will just have to do with the day to day violence.

The press has woken up once more to politics in the real American world. It most certainly is not a pretty sight. But this is not a recent collapse into political or social anarchy, we cannot simply blame the usual suspects of single parent families; deprivation; poor schooling; drugs; or modern “rap” culture. Sadly it is simply a return to business as usual.

Americans have always had a history of resolving their inner issues, and personal disputes by violence. It runs from the school playground through the neighbourhoods, into the work-place and on up to and including the White House itself.

Remember that four out of the six Presidents in the sixties, seventies, and eighties of last century had attempts on their lives, and one was successful.

America is a violent society. It has always been violent and its politics have been particularly so. Nine Presidents out of the 44 have suffered assassination or attempted assassination: Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, James Garfield, William McKinley, Harry S Truman, John F Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford (twice) and Ronald Reagan. Of these nine, four died…..


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The NY Times does a piece on the Democrats anti-establishment feelings…

The New York Times has a piece spotlighting the unrest of some in the Democratic party against the establishment, in an echo of the Trump phenomenon….

They point to Senator Bernie Sanders leading the charge against the party regulars not going far enough to the left…..

Of course these feeling are ALWAYS out there come Presidential campaign time….

But this time the Donald Trump show has pushed them to new level….

One might want to point out that BOTH Trump and Sanders have very little chance of gaining their parties nomination….

But the unhappy feeling IS out there for both parties….

Liberal activists in Iowa and elsewhere have pushed local Democratic officials to enact minimum-wage ordinances in the face of inaction from state and federal government officials in both parties. Environmentalists put enormous pressure on Mrs. Clinton to come out against the Keystone pipeline project, which she did last month. Many progressives in New York City complain that the Democratic mayor, Bill de Blasio, appears to have lost his appetite for a criminal justice overhaul.

And last week, about 80 Democrats in New Hampshire banded together to demand that the Democratic National Committee allow candidates to participate in more debates than the six that the party has sanctioned. Many activists see the limit as rigging the debates in favor of Mrs. Clinton, whose advisers wanted as few as possible.

“There’s a level of anger among Democrats that the establishment has decided not to address, whether it’s about debates or other issues,” said Peter Burling, a former New Hampshire state senator who is supporting former Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland in the presidential primary.

If Mr. Sanders proves too liberal to capture the nomination, allies of Mr. Biden believe the vice president is positioned to seize on anger at the establishment if he enters the race — even though his long tenure epitomizes it. These supporters say the freely emotional Mr. Biden is more capable of soothing Democratic anxieties than Mr. Sanders, a flinty Vermonter, or Mrs. Clinton, whose attempts to appear more likable and funny can come across as overly calculated.

Still, Mr. Biden has not decided on a run, and “Draft Biden” efforts have not yet caught on anywhere near the way Mr. Sanders has.


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Trump’s lead continues to fall in new 10/4/15 polling….

The elevator is going down for Donald Trump…….

Sanders is leading Cliton in New Hamshire……

But Clinton IS AHEAD of Sanders in Iowa…

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus


Trump 24, Carson 19, Fiorina 8, Cruz 6, Rubio 6, Bush 7, Walker, Huckabee 5, Jindal 6, Paul 4, Kasich 3, Christie 4, Santorum 1, Graham 1, Pataki 0

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus


Clinton 33, Sanders 28, Biden 22, O’Malley 3, Webb 1, Chafee 0

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary


Trump 21, Fiorina 16, Carson 10, Bush 11, Kasich 6, Rubio 10, Cruz 6, Christie 7, Paul 5, Huckabee 1, Graham 0, Walker, Jindal 0, Pataki 0, Santorum 0

New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary


Sanders 42, Clinton 28, Biden 18, O’Malley 2, Webb 1, Chafee 1

More …..

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Open Thread for Oct. 4 , 2015….Make the call Joe…..

Joe Biden has people out there setting him up for a run for President….

They have media guessing….

They have donor ‘s guessing….

They also have Joe guessing….

Biden, who has been Vice President and just about everything on Cpongress since before his current boss was born has a problem…

He’s run FOR President TWICE…..

Both time he didn’t get very far….

He’s has some tough personal stuff in his life that he had to come back from…

He’s tight with his boss Barack Obama amd he gets along fine with who he would have to challage for the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton….

The fact remains that Hillary Clinton leads the race for the Democratic nominaton and has raised over $100 Million already while contiuning to set up a field organiztion across the country to grab the nomination and to run in the general election…

Biden has none of this….

9 days from now there will be a Democratic debate….

It will feature Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders….

So far?

No Joe Biden….

Joe has NOT indicated that he wants to run for President…

But in the polling since his suppoter have begun setting him upo for run he has climbed right over Sanders , who is actually running….

This HAS to be thrilling for Joe Biden, who has always had to stand on the side while others get the job….

But he’s gotta do the right thing pretty soon and either jump in…..

Or tell everyone he’s NOT running…..


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Hillary Clinton has fun on Staurday Night Live’s season opener….

Hillary Clinton introduces ‘Val’ the bartender in ‘SNL’ season premiere

Hillary Clinton helped “Saturday Night Live” kick off its 41st season late last night, joking about the Keystone pipeline and Donald Trump, among other campaign issues.

The sketch opens with SNL castmember Kate McKinnon, playing Clinton, introducing herself to the actual Democratic front-runner, a bartender named “Val.”

“I’m just an ordinary citizen who believes the Keystone pipeline will destroy our environment,” the real Clinton says.

Jokes about “taking her time” to make that decision, her “young, cool vibe” and Donald Trump follow.

“Uh, you’re all losers,” Clinton says, imitating Trump, in the sketch, which you can watch above…..



Hillary plays ‘Val’ the bartender and sage and sympathic ear…

She also gets chance to sing along, ‘hang out’…..And leave her shoe

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Can Bernie Sanders last with JUST small donations?

Probabaly NOT….

Bernie Sanders rails against big money in politics and insists that he doesn’t want an allied super PAC — but the majority of Democrats in early states say he can’t rely on smaller-dollar donors alone if he wants to beat Hillary Clinton.

That’s the assessment of this week’s POLITICO Caucus, our bipartisan survey of the top activists, operatives and strategists in the early states. This week, the Caucus has expanded to include South Carolina and Nevada in addition to our insiders already participating in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Story Continued Below

The consensus on Sanders’ need for big money was strong: 83 percent of South Carolina Democrats, 62 percent of Nevada Democrats and 54 percent of New Hampshire Democrats said he cannot beat Clinton with only small-dollar donors. Of Iowa Democrats, 40 percent said the same.
Insiders from those states said that at best he could win a contest or two, but the big donations and unlimited contributions that a super PAC brings would be essential if his campaign stretches into the later stages of the primary season….


This also bring up other points….

This Dog believes that Sanders situation with money WILl affect Donald Trump should he somehow 

bounce back from his drop already in the Republican Presidential Sweepstakes race…

He’s rich…

But I fail to see him actually spending the hundres of millions of dollars to sustain a run and organziational ground game needed as he fades in the free media market now…

In the case of Hillary Clinton?

One coiuld see a good reason why she won’t go but so far in beating up Wall Street….Although she’s a Democrat and some might think she won’t get money from Wall Street types?

They overlook the fact that Hillary as the US Senator from New York gave her a reason to carry the ball for them for years…In addition, her husband has moved in circles that inlude the Wall Street types for decades (Including Trump)…..

Presidential campaign cost more than a Billion Dollars….

You HAVE to get money from big time donors….(Elizabeth Warren withstanding)

President Obama gave up limits to get elected….

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Cougars are sometimes afraid of screaming kids?

One actually booked up a untility pole to the top ……
Cat on a wire

Cats climbing stuff is hardly worth mentioning. But a cougar up a power pole? Now that’s impressive.

On Tuesday, a couple miles away from Cougar Buttes (a real place) in Lucerne Valley, a cougar clawed and clung its way to a perch typically reserved for birds and other winged creatures.

“Strange that it was a utility pole,” Andrew Hughan of the California Department of Fish and Wildlife wrote to the Los Angeles Times about the climbing cougar, also commonly called mountain lions in Southern California. “No one can recall seeing a lion like that.”

And why did the cougar run up the pole? To flee a busload of screaming kids after school, apparently. The Associated Press reported that the cat got spooked by the excited kids. And there atop a 35-foot-high wooden pole it stayed all Tuesday afternoon, navigating high-voltage wires….


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National Teacher’s Union backing Hillary Clinton….

Clinton has been vocal about teachers getting beatup by Republicans…..

The National Education Association, the nation’s largest union, endorsed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton on Saturday.

The union’s campaign arm had indicated that it was recommending the endorsement earlier this week, as Politico first reported. Members of the 3-million-strong union who support Clinton’s main rival for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), have already protested the move, just as Sanders supporters from the American Federation of Teachers did when Clinton secured that union’s endorsement in July.

“Clinton is a strong leader who will do what is best for America’s students. For more than four decades, Clinton has fought to make sure all children have a fair opportunity to succeed regardless of their ZIP code,” said Lily Eskelsen García, president of the NEA, in a statement. “Clinton will continue to advocate on behalf of students, educators and working families because she understands the road to a stronger U.S. economy starts in America’s public schools.”


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Second Poll with Ben Carson topping Trump…Trump going down…

The first poll come for just Louisiana Republicans only…

We have a new 2016 Presidental Poll that has Carson 7 points AHEAD of Donald Trump…..

Trump continues his slide in the polls as he drops from the media spotlight….

Other polls show Trump’s support slipping in recent weeks. The Real Clear Politics average of six national polls shows him falling from 30.5% in mid-September to 23.3% by the end of the month. That average does not include the IBD/TIPP findings.

2016 Republican Presidential Nomination


Trump 17, Carson 24, Fiorina 9, Rubio 11, Bush 8, Cruz 6, Kasich 4, Huckabee 2, Christie 2, Paul 3, Jindal 1, Santorum 0, Graham 0, Pataki 0

2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Clinton 42, Biden 22, Sanders 18

The poll is small…377 people and has a MOE of +/-5%

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2015 Election Coverage…Election Projection…

There are three gubernatorial races on tap this year, and they’re heading down the home stretch. In Kentucky, where Democratic governor Steve Beshear is term-limited, we see the most competitive race of the three. Attorney General Jack Conway is making a strong bid to keep the seat in Democratic hands in this red state. On the GOP side, 2014 senate candidate and Tea Party favorite Matt Bevin, who lost in the primary in 2014 to sitting Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, hopes to earn a place in the Governor’s Mansion this time around. Election Projection currently projects Conway to come out on top.

Down in Louisiana, Republican Governor Bobby Jindal is not seeking re-election in 2015. Instead, he’s after a higher prize. Republican Senator David Vitter is the odds-on favorite to be Louisiana’s next governor. He’s polling slightly behind Louisiana State Representative John Bel Edwards, the prominent Democrat in the race, however, that doesn’t mean he’s not way ahead in reality.

The Bayou state employs an open-primary system in which all qualified candidates are on the general election ballot (Election Day in Louisiana is October 24). If no one earns 50% of the vote, the top two vote-getters advance to a general election runoff on November 21. Because of this unique system and considering two other Republicans in the race are polling at 23% combined, Vitter appears to be a shoo-in, if not in the general, then for sure in the runoff.

Moving next door to Mississippi, we find the most uncompetitive of this year’s races. Incumbent Republican Phil Bryant should not break a sweat in besting Democratic nominee Robert Gray. The only poll I could find for this race was released back in April and showed Bryant doubling up on then-potential rival Vickie Slater. She went on to lose the Democratic primary election to Gray, but I imagine he won’t fare much better against the GOP incumbent in this very red state.

To track these races over the next 6 weeks or so, please check out the following pages:

More @ Election Projection….

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Could Illegal Immigrants give Hillary Clinton her margin of victory?

A Politico piece explains how the Cencus counts of ALL people in America….

And that ?

(The piece is actually a technical piece pointing FOR the DIRECT election of the President..Not Electoral College )

Gives the Democratic Presidential nominee a advantage in the electoral college…

President Obama carried Ohio by nearly 3 percent in 2012, slightly less than he did four years earlier. Clinton is seen as negatively here as in Florida. The Democratic front-runner is a sure loser against GOP Presidential hopeful John Kasich, the popular Ohio Governor and in a statistical tie against any credible Republican opponent.

Obama won Virginia in 2012 by nearly 4 percent—his biggest margin among these three crucial swing states. The Virginia GOP is on the decline, without any Republican in statewide office or the U.S. Senate for the first time in 45 years. Yet in the latest polling, Mrs. Clinton would have trouble besting any credible Republican nominee due to her negative image.

Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13) collectively have 60 electoral votes. Adding these Obama states to the Romney 24 gives the next GOP presidential standard-bearer 266 electoral votes, four short of the magic 270. But had the House of Representatives been apportioned by citizen-only figures, the GOP nominee would get 270 electoral votes by carrying these 27 states. There would be no need to win an additional Democratic leaning state.

But under the current system, they must. Which one of the 23 remaining might it be? President Obama carried D.C. and 16 states by double-digit margins. Four other states were carried by comfortable percentages and demographically appear very likely in the Democratic column without a major shift from the near quarter-century statistical norm. The GOP’s best hopes would seem to be Colorado (9 electoral votes), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4).

The Centennial State, once a reliable Rocky Mountain Republican bastion, seems to have flipped due to a growing Hispanic population. Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers have been particularly bad there recently, but they may well recover before Election Day. Compared to once dependably Republican Nevada, Colorado seems the easier Rocky Mountain state for the Republicans to flip next time, but it is far from a sure bet.

Iowa’s Democratic leanings continue to baffle farm state Republicans. But starting 1988, the GOP presidential nominee has lost the Corn State every time since except for President Bush’s 0.7 percent win in 2004. Against a credible Democratic nominee, history puts the GOP candidate in the underdog position.

This leaves New Hampshire, once an erstwhile reliable GOP State. George H.W. Bush won the Granite State by 26 percent in 1988. But since then, Democrats have won every time but once: a slim 1 percent win by GOP nominee George W. Bush in 2000. The 2016 GOP nominee will again need to beat the statistical tide.

The Electoral College math suggests two plausible paths for a narrow GOP win next year. The Republican nominee wins every Romney states, all three key swing states, and either Colorado, Iowa or New Hampshire. In the alternative, the historical numbers give the GOP standard-bearer 272 electoral votes by (1) carrying all the Romney states, (2) winning Florida and Ohio, (3) losing Virginia but (4) pulling off a Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire trifecta. This last scenario is very unlikely.


This is why counting illegal immigrants and noncitizens significantly reduces the chances of the GOP winning the presidency.

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Close down Guantánamo Bay Prison Operation?….Not So fast…..

The question of closing down the Guantánamo prison on the tip of Cuba is upon us again….

Actually making move?

Don’t hold your breath….

Despite the push by some to close the operation down….

Very few in ANY place on the American mainland wants it….

And it’s against current American law to do so….

The Pentagon on Friday notified Congress that it would send officials to Colorado to assess whether a wing of the federal Bureau of Prisons complex in Florence that holds numerous convicted terrorists or a nearby state penitentiary that is nearly empty could be used to house detainees from the military prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.

The idea prompted an immediate pushback from Colorado lawmakers, who noted that a federal statute bars bringing such detainees onto domestic soil.

The planned visit is part of an attempt to develop options for relocating detainees from the prison, which President Obama wants to close before he leaves office in 2017. Last month, the military conducted site surveys at the naval brig in Charleston, S.C., and the army prison barracks at Fort Leavenworth, Kan….


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Meet the New President Obama….

I watched his presser yesterday….

So did my wife….

We had a smiles all the way thru…


Barack H. Obama , unecumbered by having to run for President again, aware of his term in office widing down , was a entirely different person….He got a chance to get shit off his mind….

Good for Him….

It’s not just the fourth quarter. It’s trash talk time.

President Barack Obama’s never done a good job hiding his disdain for the people he doesn’t like—a long list that includes reporters, Republicans, pretty much every member of Congress, the foreign leaders he considers petty and childish (Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyanu most of all). Everyone would see things his way, he tends to project, if only they were a little smarter and thought it through as thoroughly as he has.

Usually when he’s explaining why the world’s wrong and he’s right, he’s looking down his nose and drily lecturing, getting deep into wonky policy explications that leave even his staff yawning and too confused or bored to explain.

On Friday afternoon in the State Dining Room, at a wide-ranging press conference, he was just having a good time.

He showed up ready to mock, with an unimpressed, exaggerated upside down smile just one right cheek mole short of a Robert DeNiro impression. The smile popped up again and again, as he swept his hand to dismiss questions, cutting off one reporter reciting criticism of him versus Putin with a wrap-it-up finger motion and saying, “I get it,” then sneering through a takedown that ended with him taking a beat like he’d been training at the Friar’s Club: “So – what was the question again?”

On Jeb Bush’s dismissal of a school shooting in Oregon as “stuff happens”: “I don’t even think I need to react to that one.”

On the upcoming fight with Congress over the debt ceiling, with a laugh: “I’m sure the speaker’s race complicates these negotiations.”

The most pronounced smirk came as he brushed off people who don’t agree with him on guns: “There are all sort of crackpot theories floating around,” Obama said, “some of which are sometimes ratified by elected officials in the other party.”



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Can the Rightwingnuts carry Chaffetz to the Speakers gavel?

Probably Not…..

If the hard right faction in the House Republican group is only about 30 to 40 memebers out of the 200+ Republicans?

Rep Kevin McCarthy will get the spot…..

This would a beplay of the same thing that has been going on with House Republicans since 2010…

The Tea Party, or Rightwingnuts may make a LOT of noise and scare other Republicans…

But in the end?

The More moderate/establishment Repiblicans should prevail……

That or maybe there won’t be a Speaker if the party can’t get to 218 votes they need?

The Republican Civil War continues…..

Rep. Jason Chaffetz’s bid to become the next Speaker of the House will highlight his Tea Party roots and anti-establishment credentials.

The Utah Republican’s late entry into the race to replace outgoing Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has changed the dynamic of the contest. Before Chaffetz jumped in, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was the heavy favorite against longshot candidate Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla).

Now it’s a three-way battle, and Chaffetz — the chairman of the House Oversight panel — is considered a much more formidable challenger than Webster.

McCarthy remains the favorite and has been rounding up support over the last week. But Chaffetz backers sense that House Republicans are yearning for a fresh face who isn’t a senior member of the leadership team.

Chaffetz’s pitch to his colleagues will note that he had to defeat the GOP establishment to get to Congress in 2008 — by trouncing then-Rep. Chris Cannon, a six-term incumbent who was backed by then-President George W. Bush.

In the 2012 cycle, Chaffetz considered a run against Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), but subsequently opted to stay in the House. In an interview a few years ago with The Hill, Chaffetz said, “I don’t owe [the establishment] anything.”

Last year, he had to overcome a close Boehner ally, Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), to win the Oversight gavel…..


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Trump won’t attend his Q & A session with the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce

Donald not wanted to going into session that he has NO Control over and is bound to have peopel NO be ‘nice’ to him….

(He hasn’t been nice to them….)

Maybe he’ll boycott the next GOP Debate?

“Mr. Trump was unwilling to abide by the terms and conditions of the USHCC’s Presidential Candidate Q&A Series — the same rules that all participants have previously followed,” the group’s communications director, Ammar Campa-Najjar, said in an emailed statement.

“Trump’s decision to forfeit the Q&A session was motivated by the concern of being ‘put on trial.’ Trump would have been treated no differently than other candidates,” Campa-Najjar said.
Hope Hicks, the GOP front-runner’s spokeswoman, told The Hill in a statement that Trump will be speaking “to a capacity crowd at a campaign rally in Nevada” instead……


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Carson LEADS Trump in Louisanna 10/2/15 Primary Poll…

Carson’s lead is above the MOE…..

Hillary has Biden following her by 37% pts and Sandets by 50% its…..

Louisiana Republican Presidential Primary


Carson 23, Trump 19, Bush 10, Rubio 9, Fiorina 7, Cruz 6, Huckabee 4, Jindal 3, Kasich 3, Christie 2, Paul 0, Santorum 0, Walker

Louisiana Democratic Presidential Primary


Clinton 57, Biden 22, Sanders 7, O’Malley 2, Webb 1, Chafee 0


800 registered voters….MOE 3.6%

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