Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have small leads in the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa poll before Monday’s caucuses.
Trump leads Ted Cruz in the Republican race, 28 percent to 23 percent, the poll shows. Marco Rubio is in third place at 15 percent, followed by Ben Carson at 10 percent.
Clinton leads Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side, 45 percent to 42 percent, with Martin O’Malley at 3 percent.
The poll, conducted by legendary Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, has long been influential and accurate: Selzer’s surveys predicted victories by Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee in 2008, and foresaw Rick Santorum’s late surge in 2012.
The poll surveyed 602 likely Democratic and Republican caucus-goers; each party’s results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
This is good news for Hillary Clinton who is leading in just about ALL of the other polls and has a 40 to 50% lead in the Nate Silver forecast….In this poll Clinton is 5% ahead of Sanders which is above the MOE of 4%….O’Malley is far behind….
This is Good but mixed news for Donald Trump…He leads, but he’s followed pretty close by Cruz AND Rubio…..
For BOTH Trump and Sanders ?
Their support is from young voters, who do NOT tend to trurn out as strongly as regular party voters , who are for Clinton and maybe more for Rubio…
The weather for Iowa is for snow on Tuesday…..
For Nate Silver and his projections?
He’s on point…..
He had Trump and Sanders both leading…..
But his percentages for the Clinton win are MUCH higher (80% polls +) than the DMR poll….His percentages for Trump (48.5 vs 41.5% polls +) are more in line with the final Selzer poll….The crosstabs on the poll DO support Silver’s bigger numbers for Clinton…..
One must also never forget that a poll, no matter who’s?
Is just a PROJECTION.…It’s up to the voters in the end….And how many that actually come out and cast their ballots…
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