Liz Cheney wins Wyoming GOP House seat Primary….

The Cheney family is back in Wyoming …..And most likely back in Washington….

Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, won the Republican primary for Wyoming’s only House seat Tuesday, meaning one of the most famous names in Republican politics will likely return to Washington.

Cheney, a former State department official who was a commonly heard pundit along with her father on conservative airwaves, bested seven rivals for the open House seat vacated by Rep. Cynthia Lummis, a Republican. The primary win in reliably red Wyoming means that the Cheney family name is expected to return to Congress.

Dick Cheney held Wyoming’s House seat from 1979 until 1989, when he resigned to become secretary of defense.

Liz Cheney pledged in statement after her win to “defend our constitutional rights and our way of life.”

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image..wsj.com

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‘It’s the candidate, stupid’….

In answer to all the pieces being written in the last few weeks about people begging Donald Trump to run the ‘old fashion’ way and watching him NOT do so and have his polling numbers hit a ceiling…..

And  ANOTHER staff shuffle….

Stop….

The issue is DONALD J TRUMP HIMSELF….

Former Bill Clinton adviser Paul Begala, who serves a senior adviser to the pro-Hillary Clinton Priorities USA super PAC, mocked the notion that Donald Trump’s campaign shakeup represented anything more than a rearranging of the deck chairs of the Titanic.

“It’s the candidate, stupid,” Begala told CNN Wednesday morning.
Story Continued Below

He was adapting a phrase from Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign.

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image..tandztalk.com

Note…

Donald Trump’s campaign reset will not amount to much, longtime critic Bill Kristol predicted Wednesday……

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Hillary Clinton is actually doing BETTER than Obama in state polling…

Sam Wang points out that Hillary Clinton is motoring along at about the same place in state polling as she was before the Conventions…..

This was and still is worst than  Romney…..

One might say this is to be expected ….

At this place in 2012?

Mitt Romney was running a REAL campaign….Trump isn’t and doesn’t seem to want to…He just wants to have rallies where people can yell his name….

Hillary Clinton IS running a campiagn ….She is in the states and doiung things the ‘old fashion way’….Ads…..Face to face campaigning and data mining….

Clinton is overperforming Obama in 15 out of 17 states, the significant exceptions being deeply Democratic Maine and New York. Overall, the difference is a median of 5.8 +/- 1.4% (estimated one-sigma SEM).

This is very similar to the picture in July, before the conventions. I wrote then that Trump needed to recover disaffected Republican voters in red states. At that time, his red-state leads were smaller than Romney’s 2012 win margins by a median of 9.3%. Hillary Clinton’s blue-state leads were smaller than Obama’s wins by 1.9%. The difference was about 7%, comparable to the value of 5.8% given above.

Recall that the popular vote margin in 2012 was Obama 51.1%, Romney 47.2%. If Clinton’s strong performance were to persist until the election, 12 weeks from now, the popular margin would end up at approximately Clinton 54%, Trump 44%…..

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Polling Update for August 17, 2016….The shades of Blue in the South…

Surveys all across the South show a move toward the blue team. Poll numbers in previously dark red states reveal less overwhelming Republican advantages, and more traditionally competitive states are actually making appearances on EP’s presidential map adorned in various shades of blue…..

Election Projection…..

Real Clear Poltics Presidential margin...+6.0 Clinton

Sam Wang Election Consortium margin...+5.5 Clinton

Five Thirty Eight

Clinton….88.3%

Trump….11.6%

The Upshot

Clinton….87%

Trump….13%

Wednesday, August 17

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Economist/YouGov

Clinton 41, Trump 35, Johnson 7, Stein 3     Clinton +6

Colorado: Trump vs. Clinton

Quinnipiac

Clinton 49, Trump 39     Clinton +10

Colorado: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Quinnipiac

Clinton 41, Trump 33, Johnson 16, Stein 7      Clinton +8

Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton

Quinnipiac

Clinton 47, Trump 44      Clinton +3

Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Quinnipiac

Clinton 41, Trump 39, Johnson 12, Stein 3     Clinton +2

Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton

Quinnipiac

Clinton 50, Trump 38     Clinton +12

Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Quinnipiac

Clinton 45, Trump 34, Johnson 11, Stein 5     Clinton +11

Indiana: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson

Monmouth

Trump 47, Clinton 36, Johnson 10      Trump +11

Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton

FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell

Clinton 49, Trump 39      Clinton +10

Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell

Clinton 44, Trump 33, Johnson 9, Stein 5     Clinton +11

Mississippi: Trump vs. Clinton

Magellan (R)

Trump 54, Clinton 39      Trump +15

Mississippi: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Magellan (R)

Trump 52, Clinton 39, Johnson 3, Stein 0      Trump +13

Indiana Senate – Young vs. Bayh

Monmouth*

Bayh 48, Young 41      Bayh +7

Indiana Governor – Holcomb vs. Gregg

Monmouth*

Holcomb 42, Gregg 41     Holcomb +1

President Obama Job Approval

Gallup

Approve 52, Disapprove 45     Approve +7

President Obama Job Approval

Rasmussen Reports

Approve 52, Disapprove 48     Approve +4

President Obama Job Approval

Economist/YouGov

Approve 49, Disapprove 50     Disapprove +1

…for more info on the above polls…Real Clear Politics

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Healthcare costs and Medicine, Technology and Surgery…

A more complete explanation for the increase in healthcare costs are things like the enormous increase in drug utilization. Physicians are over-prescribing drugs because the patient who is not satisfied will simply go to a physician who will agree to the prescription. In many cases, the patient takes the opioid pills and sells them on the black market to addicts. To make matters worse, in some states, the physician is actually the dispenser of the drugs and charges substantially higher than what a well-functioning market would allow. The patient doesn’t care because it is the insurance carrier who pays the bill.

Second, technology is often allowing people to live longer, but that often requires huge healthcare outlays. I saw something once that said something like more than 50% of all healthcare outlays are for people who will die within the next 12 months. When DSD talks of rationing, one very rationale possibility is to simply not provide the sickest of the sick 100% of the care/services that they want.

Third, physicians still have a perverse incentive to request surgeries when none is needed. Often surgeries can make a bad situation worse. The surgeon knows this, but a patient in great pain is often convinced that the only solution is a surgery, and that is how surgeons make their money.

Zreebs….

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When Trump loses will Texas want to drop out of the Union?

In a new Public Policy Poll (D) 61% of respondents who back  Donald Trump say  they would  support their state succeding for the Unted States of America if Hillary Clinton won the Presidential election

Among ALL Texasan’s the opt-out vote drops to only 26%..which is pretty high anyways

The same poll has Hillary Clinton trailing Trump in Texas by only 6%…..The MOE id 3.2% pts….Which means Clinton just COULD be only 3% pts behind Trump, or 9%pts….

More than 3 in 5 of Donald Trump’s supporters in Texas say they would back secession if Hillary Clinton becomes president, according to a new poll.

Sixty-one percent of Texans backing Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, want out of the U.S. if Clinton, the Democratic nominee, wins, according to the Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey released Tuesday.

Twenty-nine percent of Trump’s supporters in Texas, meanwhile, favor their state staying in the union, even if the billionaire loses this November.

Among Trump supporters, 37 percent support Texas secession, while 49 percent oppose.

Overall, Tuesday’s results also found that 26 percent of voters in Texas would back the Lone Star State’s independence. Fifty-nine percent want to stay in the U.S., with 15 percent unsure…..

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Healthcare for ALL American’s would be a Heavy and Complex Lift…

Let me add  that any health-care system or non-system faces enormous underlying pressures no matter how (or indeed whether) coverage is distributed.

Many of the pressures are social, political, demographic or economic in origin while others begin in the continued advances of science, technology and medical practice.

Different sides invoke the experiences of (say) Canada, Britain and Scandinavia to support their own views, but all countries struggle with how best to distribute limited resources to satisfy ever-growing and ultimately insatiable demand.

Health care inflation is partly due to perverse incentives to pharmaceutical developers, investors, manufacturers and distributors (who need big payoff for the occasional triumph to justify investing in a much-greater range of very unlikely experiments), partly to financial greed, speculation and manipulation, and partly to self-generating institutional bloat (non-profit hospitals always merging and competing with duplicating equipment).

But some is due to complicated moral choices: How do you pay hard-working health-care workers justly? When does an ever-expanding spectrum of care to progressively older and frailer populations become “too expensive”? Which diseases’ cures deserve the most research?, and which ones must lie by the wayside? Who lives?, who suffers?, who dies?, and when? When is the plug pulled, and who should pull it?

When does the whole system become too expensive for the payers of taxes and social insurance ?

When do yo u ration and how ? (through price?, through scarcity? through delays and waiting times?, by explicit rules?

A democratic, legislative process is the only conscionable way to answer such questions, since at least it’s designed to reach consensuses that all will accept, no matter how grudgingly.

But in many ways, the democratic (or republican) legislative process is (whether you follow Hobbes. Locke, Rousseau, Hume, Hamilton, Jefferson, Madison, Bagehot, Marx or Lenin) a system where making such choices becomes nearly impossible.

How does a legislator answer the distraught family of someone suffering from an orphan disease? If there’s a National Institute for X and a National Institute for Y, then why not ones for Q, V, W and Z, whose victims are suffering no less acutely in desperate hope of some relief?

DSD….

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Trump LIVES for the Crowds….

Donald Trump is NOT gonna get down a campaign the old fashion way….

It doesn’t suit him…..

The guy plasy for the audlation of the crowds….

I know the media thinks this a BIG game ….

But this Dog doesn’t….

Donald Trump has been and IS all about Donald Trump seeking acceptance….

Sanding in front of several thousand people screaming your name IS what makes Trump feel good….

THAT ‘s IT….

So what if he’s losing the polls….

So what if Hillary Clinton beats him…

For Trump?

Those things aren’t important it seems more day by day….

Trump plans to re-double his focus on holding big rallies and doing lots of TV hits. He’ll also more aggressively attack Hillary Clinton, to the extent that’s possible, and he’ll re-embrace his role as an outsider, making less of an effort to be nice to GOP greybeards.

During the primaries, when Trump was winning, then-campaign manager Corey Lewandowski always said “let Trump be Trump.” He now wants to get back to that type of campaign culture. The moves send “a signal, perhaps more clear than ever, that the real-estate mogul intends to finish this race on his own terms, with friends who share his instincts at his side,” Costa writes.

— This is another proof point that Trump is not trying to run the kind of serious campaign that can actually win the presidency. That’s why it will frighten the GOP establishment, scare off some mainstream donors who have been playing footsie with the billionaire and push congressional leaders like Mitch McConnell a little closer to cutting Trump loose – maybe even before Labor Day. (Bannon’s site single-mindedly went after Paul Ryan in the run-up to his primary.)

— Both of the newly-elevated advisers are conservative populists who will never discourage Trump from following his id. It’s hard for a 70-year-old man to change his ways, especially this one. Donald’s id demands instant gratification more than most people’s, and he’s long struggled to control his impulsiveness….

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image …abcnews.go.com

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Donald Trump ‘overhauls’ his nonexistent Campaign staff ….

Seriously?

How can you overhaul something that does NOT exist?

Donald Trump on Wednesday gave his stumbling campaign a major shakeup, bringing in two top leadership figures.

Trump hired Breitbart News Chairman Stephen Bannon to be the campaign’s chief executive, and Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway to be campaign manager.

The campaign announced the moves in a statement early Wednesday. They were first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

The statement said the moves were “designed to bolster the business-like approach of Mr. Trump’s campaign.” It noted campaign chairman Paul Manafort will stay on in his current position.

Trump himself called Bannon and Conway “extremely capable, highly qualified people who love to win and know how to win.”

“I believe we’re adding some of the best talents in politics, with the experience and expertise needed to defeat Hillary Clinton in November and continue to share my message and vision to Make America Great Again,” he added in the statement….

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Note….

Typical Trump stuff….

This about TWO hires and one has NO Presidential campaign expienece it is reported….

One more Thing?

Donald Trump doesn’t listen to ANYONE but Donald Trump and he claims HE KNOWS what he’s doing…..

So HE seems to want to lose this, no matter who he pauts on the payroll…..

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Polling Update August 16, 2016….Trump post’s losing Poll numbers….

…..Donald Trump on Tuesday approvingly tweeted out a poll that shows him losing to Hillary Clinton nationally.

“‘It’s just a 2-point race, Clinton 38%, Trump 36%,'” Trump tweeted along with a link to a Zogby poll….

Twitter users immediately mocked Trump for sharing a poll that shows him losing:

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(Who else quotes Zogby Polls?…And LOSING?)

Real Clear Politics Presidential margin….+6.7 Clinton

Sam Wang Election Consortium margins+5.5% Clinton

Five Thirty Eight

Clinton…86.9%

Trump….13.1%

The Upshot

Clinton…88%

Trump….12%

Tuesday, August 16

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

NBC News/SM

Clinton 43, Trump 37, Johnson 11, Stein 4       Clinton +6

Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Washington Post

Clinton 46, Trump 39, Johnson 9, Stein 3       Clinton +7

Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton

Washington Post

Clinton 51, Trump 43      Clinton +8

Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Monmouth

Clinton 48, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 1     Clinton +9

Texas: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

PPP (D)

Trump 44, Clinton 38, Johnson 6, Stein 2      Trump +6

Texas: Trump vs. Clinton

PPP (D)

Trump 50, Clinton 44      Trump +6

Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Murphy

Monmouth

Rubio 48, Murphy 43     Rubio +5

Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Grayson

Monmouth

Rubio 50, Grayson 39       Rubio +11

President Obama Job Approval

Gallup

Approve 51, Disapprove 45     Approve +6

President Obama Job Approval

Rasmussen Reports

Approve 51, Disapprove 49     Approve +2

…for more on the above polls....Real Clear Politics

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Obama…Democrats should NOT rest easy Untill Trump is defeated….

TOPSHOT - US President Barack Obama (L) hugs US Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton during the third night of the Democratic National Convention at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, July 27, 2016. / AFP / Robyn BECK        (Photo credit should read ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images)

President Obama brought some old-fashioned disdain in speaking about Donald Trump at a fundraiser Monday night—but disdain for Trump on the merits doesn’t mean he thinks Democrats should be complacent:

“What I do want to emphasize is needing a sense of urgency and finishing the job of getting her elected,” Obama said at a private residence. “And you notice I haven’t said much about her opponent. Frankly, I’m tired of talking about her opponent. I don’t have to make the case against her opponent because every time he talks he makes the case against his own candidacy.”

What is there to talk about, then? Obama had quite a bit to say about what Democrats need to do to avoid having the guy who makes the case against his own candidacy become president:

“There’s still a lot of uncertainty out there,” the president added. “And if we are not running scared until the day after the election, we are going to be making a grave mistake.”

If Democrats do not “do their jobs,” Obama warned, “then it’s still possible for her to lose.”

“And when I say ‘do our jobs,’ what I mean is we are going to have to continue to be engaged,” Obama said. “We are going to continue to have to write checks. We are going to continue to have to make phone calls, and rally people behind her candidacy. We are still going to have to fight what has been an unrelenting negative campaign against her that has made a dent in the opinion of people even who are inclined to vote for her.”

And even if putting Hillary Clinton in the White House is easier than all that, the sheer intensity and breadth of Trump’s awfulness makes it that much more important to have an overwhelming win, to reject the racism and bigotry he represents…..

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When traveling outside the US?…Be prepared to carry Trump on your back….

It’s THAT crazy to other people and even American’s…..

“The worst part about being abroad for 4 weeks is having to explain to people that most Americans are not like Trump. It’s embarrassing,” tweeted Californian Tom Pawlicki as he was returning from Hong Kong.

A Washington neighbor of mine who recently traveled to India, Vietnam and Cambodia said she was questioned about our election everywhere she went.

“People abroad seem afraid for themselves if Trump is elected,” she said. “In Cambodia or Vietnam we got a lot of questions about our love of guns. We met not a single person who thought Trump would be a good candidate.”

Even our neighbors up north — the ones who seem just like us except for guns, poutine and good manners — are baffled by the meteoric rise of the real estate magnate and reality TV star.

“On vacation with Canadian friends,” reported Travis Bonnette-Kim, a United Methodist pastor from Massachusetts, on Twitter. “Trying to explain America’s obsession with Trump is hard. Mainly because I don’t understand it either!”

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Political Roundup for August 16th, 2016…Can Gary Johnson get 15% for the Debates?…RRH Elections

President

Debates: We have our five polls upon which the Commission on Presidential Debates will determine if Gary Johnson (L) makes the debate stage. They are:

  • ABC-Washington Post
  • CBS-New York Times
  • CNN-Opinion Research Corporation
  • Fox News
  • NBC-Wall Street Journal

Johnson is currently averaging just shy of 10% in those polls.

UT-Pres: Evan McMullin has filed his petitions to get onto the ballot in Utah, where the Mormon GOP staffer will decamp and try to make a stand.

RNC: Has Reince Priebus done the best he could against the sweeping tide of Trumpismo, or did he capitulate in spectacular fashion? And do his past successes building the party digital and field infrastructure mean anything considering recent setbacks? These questions are all worth rehashing now that Priebus is thinking about seeking another term as RNC Chairman. He was expected to call it quits, with Carly Fiorina speculated as a candidate, but it’s hard to see an open challenge to the incumbent going very far.

Freedom Caucus: It’s a bit disappointing how many Freedom Caucus members will denigrate Trump in private while publicly supporting him, with 38/39 legislators in the caucus supporting the nominee. Only Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI-3) stands alone, with even his typical comrade Rep. Thomas Massie opining in favor of Trump despite having voted third party in both 2000 and 2008. For most of them, it seems to come down to political survival in deep-red districts. But don’t they know Trump underperforms in those places anyway? Congressmen are not necessarily the best political analysts…..

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Early voting for President starts next month….

While Donald  Trump slumps in the pools with no campaign to speak of?

 There are some who talk of him climbing back into the race.

That is gonna increasingly be difficult.

Voting for President  across America actually will begin in ages weeks and there doesn’t seem to be any reason to think Trump ‘s

Numbers are gonna be better by then…..

Voting actually starts in less than six weeks, on Sept. 23 in Minnesota and South Dakota, the first of some 35 states and the District of Columbia that allow people to cast ballots at polling sites or by email before Nov. 8. Iowa is expected to have ballots ready by the end of September, as are Illinois and two other states.

The electoral battlegrounds of Arizona and Ohio are to begin voting on Oct. 12, nearly four weeks before Election Day. And North Carolina and Florida will be underway before Halloween.

Early voting has become a critical, even decisive factor in presidential elections: President Obama was sufficiently ahead in the early vote in Iowa and Nevada in 2012 that his campaign shifted resources from those states to others, according to former advisers, who also credited enthusiastic early voting in 2008 for his victory in North Carolina and elsewhere.

Nearly 32 percent of voters cast their ballots before Election Day in 2012, according to census data, compared with 29.7 percent in 2008 and 20 percent in 2004.

With Mrs. Clinton spending aggressively to try to dominate the early vote, Mr. Trump, who has repeatedly created distractions for himself in the past two weeks, is in jeopardy not just of being outmaneuvered but also of running out of chances to improve perceptions of him enough to win over undecided voters…..

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DNC Chair Brazil announces ‘United’ effort to support Democratic down ballot races…

She has also indicated that she wants to expand Democratic efforts in reds states of Georgia and North Carolina as the Democrats and Clinton Campaign seek to expand what seems like a upcoming Hillary Clinton strong win ‘s coattails….

The interim Democratic Party head is making sure to thank the Bernie Sanders campaign  for its efforts also….Sanders has indicated that he WILL campaign for Hillary Clinton around the country…

The Democrats ARE United going forward…

The man who led Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign vowed Monday night during a conference call with DNC officials that Sanders was committed to traveling the country to campaign for Hillary Clinton and down-ballot Democratic candidates.

“This is not going to be an easy task and it’s going to take all of us rowing together,” Jeff Weaver said.

The private conference call – which included top Democratic National Committee officials including chief of staff Brandon Davis and state party leaders – was led by DNC interim Chairwoman Donna Brazile, who had met with Weaver and Sanders’ top campaign adviser Mark Longabaugh earlier in the day. According to DNC officials, the three discussed Sanders’ schedule as well as voter mobilization among former Sanders supporters.

Brazile told those on the conference call that Weaver had agreed to help her “through this election process and beyond.”

The call focused on a 50-state strategy for the November election to be implemented soon by members of Clinton’s campaign and Sanders’ former presidential team.

The close interactions between the interim DNC chairwoman and the Sanders campaign is in stark contrast to earlier in the presidential cycle when the campaign criticized now-former DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz as unfairly partial to Clinton……

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Note….

Why don’t they let Brazile stay on as DNC Chair?

image…usatoday.com

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The Trump campaign CONTINUES to solicit money from Foreign Nationals…

They have been warned it is against the law to do so….

Can you image if this was the Clinton campaign?

This story would be THE HEADLINE….

This is ANOTHER example of the Double Standard present now between Clinton and Trump….

“The Trump campaign’s continuing solicitation of campaign contributions from people who are obviously foreign nationals is clearly illegal,” said Larry Noble, the general counsel for the non-partisan watchdog the Campaign Legal Center.

“Given the news reports, the complaint we filed with the FEC and the letter we sent to the Department of Justice asking for a criminal investigation, his refusal to put a stop to the solicitations is compelling evidence of the campaign’s flagrant disregard for the law.”

The Hill first reported on Butler’s situation — and the solicitations going to other foreign government officials — a month ago.

Butler says she never signed up to any Trump list and has no idea why she’s being solicited by the campaign, given that her foreign government email address appears easy to identify.

“Hi @realDonaldTrump can you take me off your email list please?” Butler tweeted on Monday.

Asked to explain why foreign donations were still being solicited despite numerous warnings, the Trump official blamed “scammers.”

“We routinely check for foreign nationals,” the Trump official told  The Hill on Monday. “However, we’ve seen sometimes that scammers will continue to try to add them to our system.”…

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