Category Archives: Polls

California, Not Iowa, Could Pick the Next Democratic Presidential Nominee

With California moving into the first tier of Presidential nomination states and it’s HUGE number of delegates?

It’s gonna change the whole process…

Right now….

Kamal Harris HAS gotta be smiling…

That’s because, last September, Gov. Jerry Brown signed the Prime Time Primary Act into law, which moved up the state’s primary date from June to the beginning of March. California also allows mail-in balloting, which means that a sizable portion of its voters will be casting ballots early in February. And thus, a state that sent 475 delegates to the convention in the 2016 presidential election will be witnessing primary voting at roughly the same time as New Hampshire held its first in the nation primary in that last presidential cycle.

“California will become not just a factor but a major, major factor in presidential primaries henceforth,” Ace Smith, California state director for Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign told The Daily Beast.

The ways in which this could alter the course of the 2020 primary are profound and still being gamed out by operatives and potential candidates as well. At least two California Democrats are rumored to have presidential ambitions. And the consensus among top Democratic officials is that either Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti or Sen. Kamala Harris could stand to benefit from California’s prominence in the 2020 calendar; but probably not both.

“It will give anybody who runs from California somewhat of an advantage or it’s going to kill them,” Howard Dean, former Democratic presidential candidate and former chair of the Democratic National Committee told The Daily Beast. “California is going to be the big winnower.”…

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Former Arizona county Sheriff Joe Arpaio wil run for the Arizona US Senate…

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A pardoned criminal is gonna run for the US Senate…

Controversial former Arizona county Sheriff Joe Arpaio announced Tuesday that he will run for Senate, a decision that casts further uncertainty into the state’s GOP Senate primary.

Arpaio gained popularity among immigration hardliners during his time as Maricopa County sheriff, representing the Phoenix area, proudly calling himself “America’s toughest sheriff” and touting a strict approach to border security.

Some of his tactics opened him up to criticisms and allegations of racial profiling and mistreating prisoners. President Trump pardoned Arpaio last year after he was convicted of ignoring a court order related to racial profiling in his division.

The sheriff, who lost his elected sheriff’s office last year after more than two decades  has long floated bids for higher office. But he announced on Twitter he would run for Senate “to support the agenda and policies of President Donald Trump.” If he wins the seat, Arpaio would be 86-years-old by the time he took office…..

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image..npr.com

Roll Call rates US Senate races for November…

2018 Midterm elections are only 10 months away….

Democratic prospects for a US House ‘wave’ are good…

But the US Senate is another story….(It has gotten better)

Democrats have a lot of seats to defend ….

With Ohio’s Josh Mandel ending his Senate bid last week, the one Senate race in which the matchup long looked like a foregone conclusion won’t be a rematch of 2012 after all.

The Republican challenger is still unknown in plenty of other races too, with competitive primaries beginning in just four months.

Many of those contests have devolved into loyalty contests to President Donald Trump, with the sparring between the president and his former adviser Steve Bannon complicating some conservative alliances.

Trump’s involvement in primaries remains unknown, although he signaled over the weekend he’d be more cooperative with leadership than previously thought. He said he’d work to protect incumbents — a shift from last year when he attacked vulnerable GOP senators.

Watching all of this, Democrats are more optimistic about winning the Senate. Their victory in Alabama reduces the number of seats they need to pick up in 2018 to just two.

But just holding their 10 seats in states Trump won remains a tall order….

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The Republican have NO CHOICE but compromise with Democrats going forward…

Been preaching this for LONG time here…

The people who put this place together called the United States made sure that  compromise was an essential part of the process….

President Barack Obama suffered thru the last years of his term fighting with the opposition ….

They thought they won…But in the end?….Obama is the popular guy….They (Republicans lawmakers are not)….

The tax bill recently dropped on American’s seems like a crowning achievement for Republicans….It isn’t….

The law is vastly unpopular and Republicans will have to defend themselves for the next 10 months for their votes for it….

We now have a big essential bill coming up….

Funding the American government ….

The clincher?

The GOP MUST get 60 votes to authorize the budget….

They cannot do it alone….

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Worst for them?

The split in the US Senate is now 51 GOPer’s and 49 votes for the Democrats ( 2 of those votes are actually not Democrats but Indies who hang with the Dems’s)….

Two of the GOPer’s are in ill health and cannot be counted on to show up and vote all the time….Then?…There a few Republican Senator’s that the party cannot always count on…And the GOP leadership STILL owes those few some favors….

On top of ALL of this is Donald Trump, who sits at home in the White House and watches who says ‘nice’ things about him , while looking over his shoulder as the ground slowly evaporates from under him , pulled by Robert Mueller’s investigation…And continues to tweet chaos that is unnerving to EVERYBODY…

Oh, and there is the that ‘Midterms’s election Democatic  wave thing?’….

Get ALL that?

Since the day they enacted the biggest overhaul of the tax code in a generation without a single Democratic vote, Republicans have been talking a big game about their supposed desire to work across the aisle.

“We hope that 2018 will be a year of more bipartisan cooperation,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters at Camp David on Saturday, dubiously predicting that “a significant number of Democrats” will want to support President Trump’s agenda.

“We hope that we’re going to be able to work out an arrangement with the Democrats. It’s something, certainly, that I’d like to see happen,” Trump added at the news conference, which was overshadowed by his declaration earlier in the day that he is “like, really smart” and “a very stable genius.”

The paeans to working together partly reflect legislative necessity. Because of Senate rules, Republicans will need 60 votes to keep the government open beyond the end of next week, avert the deportation of hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants who were brought here as children, appropriate money for disaster relief, renew the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, stabilize the health-care system they’ve shattered and avoid a default on the national debt in March.

Now that Doug Jones has been sworn in as Alabama’s new senator, Republicans only have 51 seats. Two of their members, John McCain and Thad Cochran, have serious health problems that make their votes hard to depend on.

But cold, hard political calculus is the bigger driver of these new GOP talking points. Public and private polls show that the Trump administration’s steadfast unwillingness to work in good faith with Democrats has become a serious liability for down-ballot Republicans in the midterms….

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image..breitbart.com

Everyday Donald Trump picks at things Obama?… Makes the Former President seem better and BETTER..

Barack Obama has been out of office for almost a year….

More and more of us miss him….

While he could annoy us from time to time…

He was an example of what a American President WAS and COULD BE….

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We now have to suffer with what an American President should NOT BE…

The next American President, be he/she Republican or Democartic?

Will have big shoes to fill to set things right again…

Donald Trump spent much of his first year in office attempting to erase Obama’s policy legacy, but experts, backed by loads of anecdotal evidence, say Trump’s unconventional and often divisive conduct has actually deepened the connection to Obama for liberals and independents. As the current president spent 2017 buffeted by scandals and igniting Twitter controversies, Obama seemed to increasing numbers a throwback to simpler political times, more deeply admired by those who find Trump ever more deeply objectionable.

Most presidents — even the most unpopular ones — tend to grow in public esteem after they leave office. But only one of them may score an invite to the upcoming royal wedding in England; rumor has it that Obama may make the coveted list. Trump, after a string of tweets and remarks ill-received in post-Brexit Britain, may not.

“Obama’s legacy is being bolstered by Trump,” said Michael Days, author of an Obama biography called “Obama’s Legacy: What He Accomplished as President.”

“People are waking up every morning to tweets that some find upsetting and frightening. And they’re realizing whether they liked or didn’t like Obama, people know they were rarely embarrassed by him,” Days said….

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image…thehollywoodunlocked.com

A year in his Presidency, Trump polls as a Conservative…FiveThirtyEight

 over at Nate Silver’s blog takes a look at a new YouGov survey that suggests that Americans may have thought Donald Trump was all over the place in political party views…

But now is seen as a Conservative Republican…

I ‘m with their original view that the guy really had no political ideology, but he IS the leader of the Republican party ‘so ya dance with who brought ya’….Attempts by Trump to sneak back to the middle politically get immediate scolding from his adopted party members who remind him of party unity…

Here’s a bit from Enten and the link…

A new YouGov survey released this week found that 5 percent of registered voters think President Trump is liberal, 19 percent think he’s moderate and 51 percent think he’s conservative. So, a majority of voters think the Republican president is a conservative. Typically, that wouldn’t be news. With Trump, however, it is.

Trump was an unusual candidate in many ways, but one important one was that before he took office, we knew less about his political philosophy than that of perhaps any other modern president. We’re now almost a year into Trump’s tenure, though, and his policy agenda has been almost entirely orthodox Republicanism. Voters have noticed.

Before Trump moved into the White House, he took a mix of liberal and conservative positions. He was, for example, vehemently against illegal immigration but in favor of infrastructure spending. He was against gun control, but he claimed to be stronger than Hillary Clinton on LGBT rights. When you totaled up Trump’s ideological score on economic and social issues from the website OnTheIssues — which assigns an ideological grade to politicians’ statements and votes on a scale that we’ve converted to go from -5 (very liberal) to +5 (very conservative) — he came in at +42.5. His score was closer to 0, perfectly “moderate,” than any incoming president of the past 40 years except George H.W. Bush.

Trump’s ideology was hard to pin down before he took office

OnTheIssues scores as of Nov. 2016

SCORE
PRESIDENT ECONOMIC SOCIAL TOTAL
Barack Obama -30.0 -30.0 -60.0
Jimmy Carter -27.5 -32.5 -60.0
Bill Clinton -27.5 -17.5 -45.0
George H.W. Bush +20.0 +15.0 +35.0
Donald Trump +15.0 +27.5 +42.5
Gerald Ford +22.2 +27.5 +49.7
George W. Bush +32.5 +27.5 +60.0
Ronald Reagan +27.8 +33.3 +61.1

The total score scale goes from -100 (liberal) to +100 (conservative). The economic and social scales go from -50 (liberal) to +50 (conservative).

SOURCE: ONTHEISSUES.ORG

Trump’s stances led voters to believe he was relatively moderate for a Republican — or at least that he was ideologically idiosyncratic. More voters viewed Trump as liberal than any incoming GOP president since at least Ronald Reagan, and fewer voters viewed him as conservative than any Republican since at least Reagan. That stood in stark contrast to Clinton, whom the clear majority of voters saw as liberal. Trump’s ideological positioning relative to Clinton’s may have been one of the reasons he was able to pull off a slim Electoral College victory against her.

Upon entering the White House, however, Trump has taken up a primarily conservative agenda. He’s become hawkish on foreign policy, he stocked the federal courts with conservative judges, and he urged Congressional Republicans to push through a massive tax cut that was seen as mostly helping the well-to-do. He also tried to stop transgender Americans from serving in the military. The national infrastructure project seems to be going nowhere.

Therefore, it’s not surprising that Trump’s White House policies have pushed his OnTheIssues score toward the conservative end of the spectrum. Trump’s score is now a +60, compared to a +42.5 before the election….

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61 percent of Americans support marijuana legalization …Poll

Republicans, on the whole, do NOT….

Roughly six in 10 Americans think marijuana should be legalized, according to a new Pew Research survey.

Sixty-one percent of respondents said the substance should be legal. That is slightly more than the 57 percent that said so a year ago and it is representative of the steady increase in support for legalizing marijuana that has taken shape over the past decade.

Support for legalization was the highest among Millennials, at 70 percent, according to the Pew survey. They’re followed by Gen Xers, 66 percent of whom support marijuana legalization, and then by Baby Boomers, at 56 percent.

Party affiliation also played a role in support for legalization. Nearly seven in 10 Democrats and 65 percent of independents support legalizing the substance. Among respondents that identify as Republicans, just 43 percent favor legalization….

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Utah GOP Senator Orrin Hatch will NOT run for re-election…

I’m a bit late on this but as I mentioned in the comments?

This makes the Utah US Senate seat Mitt Romey’s to lose….

Romeny polls better than Hatch and Trump in the state…

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Utah Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch, the Finance Committee chairman, President Pro Tempore of the Senate and longest-serving Republican senator, announced Tuesday that he will retire at the end of this term, his seventh.

Why it matters: Mitt Romney has been considering a run in the event Hatch retires. President Trump had urged Hatch to seek re-election, in part to block Romney. Romney has moved from “willing to run” to “wanting to run” in recent weeks, MSNBC’s Garrett Haake reports. He released a statement on Hatch’s retirement Tuesday, but did not comment on running for the open seat….

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Note…

This announcement is a week after a major Utah newspaper Op-Ed asked Hatch to step down…

image…nogreport.com

Update….

Hatch’s retirement is sure to set off all sorts of moves among Republican senior Senator’s according to RollCall….

A move back to leading the Finance panel in the final two years of President Donald Trump’s first term could be appealing to Grassley. But with scores of appellate court seats to fill, along with the potential for additional Supreme Court nominations, he might well choose to continue on the Judiciary Committee.

Should Grassley go to Finance, it would be Sen. Lindsey Graham on deck at Judiciary. A former campaign adversary of Trump, the South Carolina Republican has emerged as a vocal supporter of the president. He also brings a legal background as a former military lawyer, serving as an instructor for the Air Force Judge Advocate General’s School and as a judge.

Graham has become a frequent golfing partner for Trump at the president’s course in Northern Virginia and elsewhere.

If Grassley were to opt to remain atop the Judiciary Committee, the next man in line at Finance would be Michael D. Crapo of Idaho. The current Banking chairman would likely be replaced in that role by Pennsylvania Sen. Patrick J. Toomey….

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Democratic Progressive Women Senator’s postion themselves for 2020…..

Several media outlets  are out with  piece’s on the Democartic progressive women  senator’s that COULD be setting themselves up for  a run at the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination….

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To hear Sen. Kirsten E. Gillibrand tell it, the  #MeToo moment is part of something far larger than the fight against sexual impropriety. It’s part of a new activist political movement that’s just starting to show its strength on issue after issue.

And it could be part of something larger for Gillibrand, too.

New York’s junior senator is running for re-election and won’t discuss the possibility of seeking the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. And while Gillibrand’s willingness to criticize fellow Democrats has angered some in her own party, political pros say there’s no doubt that Gillibrand’s leading-edge role in the fight against sexual assault and harassment has enhanced her stature nationwide.

The Washington Post recently ranked her fourth on its list of top potential Democratic candidates in 2020, behind only Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Three months earlier, the Post ranked Gillibrand sixth — but that was before President Trump took to Twitter to say she would “do anything” for campaign contributions.

Reflecting on Trump’s tweet, Post blogger Aaron Blake wrote: “It’s difficult to imagine a bigger gift when it comes to raising Gillibrand’s profile in advance of a 2020 run for the Democratic nomination.”

For her part, though, Gillibrand prefers talking about the fight against sexual misconduct – and how it is part of a larger movement of people finding their political voices in opposition to Trump….

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Elizabeth Warren has spent the past year making a series of below-the-radar moves that would put her in prime position to run for president in 2020 if she decides to.

The liberal icon and Republican bete noire has amassed more money in her campaign war chest than nearly any senator in modern history, groomed political connections with Democrats who’ve been skeptical of her in the past, and worked to bolster her bipartisan and foreign policy bona fides.

It’s part of a conscious break from the heads-down posture that Warren purposefully maintained during the first five years of her Senate career, a wide range of Democrats close to the Massachusetts senator and her tight-knit political operation told POLITICO. And it’s representative of Warren’s tricky navigation between the wishes of advocates who want her cutting a clear path to 2020, and supporters who think her best bet is to run up the score in her reelection race this year.

The balancing act is evident everywhere, as Warren takes steps she never did when activists were pressuring her to jump into the 2016 presidential race.

Warren is sitting on more campaign cash — $12.8 million — than nearly any other incumbent senator ever has at this point in an election cycle, despite what’s expected to be an easy reelection. But she also held 17 town hall events back home in Massachusetts last year.

She spent the year meeting with prominent figures with whom she’s disagreed in the past — from former President Barack Obama to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon — sit-downs that could come in handy if she runs for president. But Warren shied from repeated invitations to political events across Iowa and New Hampshire…

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top image…washingtontimes.com

bottom image….busnessinsider.com

Is the migration of Northern Whites and others changing the South’s politics?

Politico is out with a piece that points to something that maybe unnoticed but ominous for Republicans….

In a continuation of something that has been going on for decades ?

White Americans, (Younger Blacks also) that have worked in the Northern industrial states , and had good jobs, are moving south…..The report also notes the increased Hispanic influx)

These people have retirement, or skills that enable them to either retire or take skilled jobs….The warmer weather is also an attraction…

And they tend to vote what they have voted thru out their lives….

Democratic….

Most move to the suburbs of the major cities….

And THAT IS where Democrats seem to making inroads in the South….

…..In a new article, political scientists Sunshine Hillygus, Seth McKee, and McKenzie Young show that whites who have moved to the South are more likely to be Democratic than lifelong Southerners.

They draw this conclusion by looking at data going back to the 1970s from the American National Election Studies survey. Since 1968, the survey has asked respondents where they grew up. This allowed Hillygus and her colleagues to categorize white residents of Southern states as “natives” (people who grew up in the region) and “migrants” (people who grew up elsewhere). It’s important to note that their analysis focuses only on whites, so it cannot speak to the region’s growing diversity.

In the 1970s, migrants were significantly more likely to identify with the Republican Party than were native Southerners. That’s because at that point, the South had a long history as a Democratic stronghold in reaction to the Republican Party’s history as the party of Abraham Lincoln, with many white lifelong Southerners holding fast to their Democratic roots.

But as the Democratic Party increasingly supported the civil rights movement, that changed. By the 1990s, there was no relationship between whether someone had grown up in the South and party affiliation; white natives and migrants were equally likely to identify with the Republican Party.

By the 2000s, that shifted again — and Southern migrants were more likely to be Democratic than their native counterparts. In other words, whites who weren’t born in the South were, on average, moving it to the left. The region’s most reliable Republicans were people who had grown up there….

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Note…

Florida has received an influx of more than 200,000 Puerto Ricans since Hurricane Maria….

If those new resident’s, who are American’s sign up to vote in any number?…They would surely tip the states overall party color from Redish to Blueish….

A year of Donald J. Trump’s ‘My Way Presidency’…..

His supporters voted for him because he was the anti-polititican , rich guy, who would ‘shake things up’ in Washington D.C……

They got what they wanted….

But an almost a year later?

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A good majority of American , The World and even lawmakers from his own political party aren’t mostly happy with the guy who is the elected leader of the most powerful country on the planet….

A man who has no government experience is trying to half heartily run a organization of 2.6 million people….He ran his own companies with less than 4, 000 employee’s thru a tight net group of only a few….

Donald Trump has shown that he feels only he runs things….

In opposition to the past modern President’s he does NOT easily grasp the limits of his office….In fact he chaffs at those limits and spend the early days of his tenure in office hurting himself politically by trying to go it alone thru social media reaching out via tweets….

That has NOT gone well and has caused headaches for him and his fellow Republican lawmakers….

I said here an almost a year ago the office makes the man…

That view is correct I still feel, but it IS being stretched with Donald Trump….

We have discussed here at this place the bond between Trump and the political party he chose to run for the Presidency in and successfully captured and now leads….

My feeling is that Trump isn’t true Republican in ideology…..

For him it’s just about the wins that stroke his HUGE ego….

That separates him somewhat for the men who held the office in the past…

Trump, while throwing out the make ‘ Making America Great’ slogan ?

Has ACTUALLY embraced up what he knows best….

Making Donald Trump  MONEY….

 

Donald Trump got a job on the public payroll that allows only HIM to make money from the same public ….

Every-week he makes sure to travel to someplace the taxpayers have to foot the bill….

He has NOT given upon making money various businesses that benefit from him being the guy who ok’s companies and countries making money…

 

Donald Trump also take little council for his parties senior lawmakers, experts or even past President’s….

As I pointed out above?

It huts his agenda, and the countries as aides have finally learnded to let him put his foot in his mouth repeatedly  and then they clean up behind him or let him take the beat down….Trump’s staff turn over is the highest of any modern President….

 

His disregard of the rules and norms of the political field has led to his being investigated by a special prosecutor ….The system does NOT take kindly to those who ignore it’s rules….This oversight by a former FBI head DOES cause Donald Trump heart burn and will be a reminder to those who follow in his footsteps to the White House  that ‘doing your own thing’…..Costs….

The American Presidency is resilient ….

It will survive Trump….

Things will swing back with the election of the next Democrat , or even Republican , who will surely be a experienced politician

And the tenure of Donald Trump will a lesson it what the modern President should be….And should NOT be….

‘A Durable Institution’

If Mr. Trump’s unconventional presidency succeeds, he could set a new paradigm for the presidency. If he fails, it would be a cautionary tale for his successors.

“There are a lot of changes — whether they are successful in the long run, time will tell,” said Stuart Spencer, who was a longtime adviser to Presidents Gerald R. Ford and Ronald Reagan. “But I’m sure the next president will take note.”

The next president may feel compelled to be more interactive with the public even as he or she feels less compelled to release tax returns or White House entry logs because Mr. Trump refused to. The next president may feel more emboldened to take on entrenched interests or less worried about stretching the truth.

“If he can get away with it, then why can’t other people?” asked Eliot A. Cohen, a State Department counselor under George W. Bush and one of Mr. Trump’s fiercest Republican critics. “The good news is he’s been so incompetent and he’s got such a short attention span. But what happens if you get Huey Long next time, which would be a lot scarier?”

Some critics predict that Mr. Trump will provoke a backlash that will motivate the next president to show that he or she is the opposite. “People are going to want more ethics in government,” said Richard W. Painter, the White House ethics lawyer for Mr. Bush. “They’re going to take conflict of interest more seriously. They’re going to take obstruction of justice more seriously.”

Mr. Axelrod agreed, foreseeing a demand for a return to decorum. But, he added, “The question is, ‘Can you do so much damage to public confidence in these institutions that that can’t be restored?’”

The presidency has shifted back and forth before. Mr. Carter, seeking to remedy what he saw as Mr. Nixon’s imperial presidency, tried to demystify the office by walking the route of his inaugural parade, carrying his own luggage, selling the presidential yacht and initially eschewing the playing of “Hail to the Chief.” Mr. Reagan made a point of restoring the more ceremonial, regal trappings of the presidency.

“Things go in cycles,” said Doris Kearns Goodwin, an author of books on Abraham Lincoln, Kennedy, Johnson and both Roosevelts. “The hope would be that given the American people’s reaction to the way he’s handled the presidency, the people running next time will run in the opposite direction.”…..

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image…nypost.com

Past DNC head Rendell…Joe Biden is the Democratic winning answer against Ttump in 2020….

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Former Pennsylvania  Democratic Governor and ex-DNC head Rendell’s  feeling….

“There’s only one person I can say who will definitely win the election and has a superstar appeal in almost every state in the union, and that’s Vice President Biden,” Randell said. “Of course, people say he’s too old. But he’s only a year and a half older than President Trump, and he’s in infinitely better shape. I don’t think age would be a factor in a Biden-Trump election.”

“To me it’s clear-cut – Joe Biden is our superstar. If he decides to run I think he will win overwhelmingly,” he added.

Biden has become a frequent critic of Trump since his inauguration and many speculate he has his eyes on a presidential run. He has not officially thrown his hat in the ring, but has said he “may very well do it” if no one else runs that he think could win a general election…..

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Note…

I second the Rendell’s view….

Joe Biden is NOT to much of a lefty and would carry the parties black, brown and yellow vote…..Biden is also comfortable with white working class males….

Biden’s old ,off the wall, comments pale to what we are seeing with Donald Trump….

Biden  leads in the early 2020 Democratic polling for the Presidential nomination …

image…newsweek.com