Category Archives: Polls

Will Paul Ryan have a problem holding his second job?

His first job is a memeber of thge House of Representive in the US Congress…

His second job is leading that legislative body….

With low polling numbers?

And the political sniping between him a Trump?

Could the guy be in trouble?

Image result for paul ryan

“Do you plan to vote against Paul D. Ryan continuing his speakership?”

It was an easy-sounding question, asked at the end of a friendly Republican candidate forum at Minnesota’s state fair. To the pleasant surprise of Democrats, four of five Republicans seeking to flip House seats next year declined to support the speaker of the House, offering instead criticisms of Paul D. Ryan’s leadership.

“I think he’s going in the wrong direction,” said state Rep. Tim Miller.

“I would prefer someone else,” said commercial pilot Dave Hughes.

“We’ll see who runs for speaker,” said businessman Jim Hagedorn.

“He might not even run for speaker,” said St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber….

“Speaker Ryan has been instrumental in the passage of key House legislative items and the successful election of four new Republican members in 2017. We’re thankful for his leadership.”

Public polling, however, has seen Ryan’s favorable rating and approval rating tumble since the start of the Trump presidency. According to HuffPost’s poll tracker, Ryan’s approval rating was barely underwater, 35/41, the week of Trump’s inauguration. Today, it’s underwater by close to 20 points, 30/49; Pelosi’s rating is 29/49. A Bloomberg poll, conducted shortly before the effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act failed in the Senate, found 61 percent of Republican voters approving of Ryan, with every other voting bloc viewing him negatively.

“His numbers are no better than mine,” Pelosi said after Democrats lost a special election in Georgia’s 6th District. “The difference is we don’t engage in the politics of personal destruction.”…

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image…dailysignal.com

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Democrats have tons of candidates running for next years House seats…

They just have to be careful NOT to hurt their final election race chances….

But it seems that Democrats are trying harder this time to get a majority back in the House….

“It does seem like there’s a primary in every single race,” said John Lapp, a top Democratic ad-maker.

Lapp said that some primaries will “get bloody and ugly” and flawed nominees might win in some places — but on balance he’d rather have too many than too few candidates running.

“The days of attempting to clear primaries are over but to be honest I’d much rather have the abundance of energy than the problem we’ve had before, begging one candidate to get in. What you want is surfboards all over if the wave comes,” he said.

Ian Russell was a top staffer at Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee the last few election cycles — and spent a lot of time begging.  The Obama years weren’t an easy time for House Democratic candidate recruitment.

This year, he’s a consultant working with a number of candidates, including Min, who face the opposite problem: Tough primaries against other top-tier Democrats.

“There’s just less control from the party headquarters when you have these freewheeling primaries,”Russell said. He argued that while some will help promising candidates “get in shape, learn the ropes and become a better candidate,” in more places it’s not helpful.

“You’re spending money earlier than you want to, you’re campaigning to a different audience than you need for the general election — and most stressful for the DCCC, you can’t guarantee the outcome of the primary,” Russell said….

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Most Republicans want Trump to stop fighting and listen to his party lawmakers…Poll…

Maybe those Republican’s out there that EVERYONE thinks LIKES their party leader slugging it out with lawmakers aren’t so dumb after all?…..

This Pew poll has warning signs all over it….

It joins other polling in pointing to even Trump supporters getting tired of his combative and chaotic term in office so far although new Chief of Staff John Kelly is trying to calm things down…But Trump still speakers for himself on twitter and at ‘campaign like pep rallies’….

These polls cast  cold cool water on the argument that Republicans lawmakers should blindly follow Trump’s wishes , eh?

Image result for trump ryan/mcconnell

(Are these guys  happy these days carrying their parties leader?)

The fall is coming and if Trump wants anything?

He’s gonna need his adopted parties lawmakers help….

President Donald Trump seems to be relishing his public fights with establishment Republicans, but most of the party’s voters want him to listen more to Republicans who have experience in government.

A survey from Pew Research released Tuesday found that 58 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning Americans think Trump should be listening more to the more experienced members of his party, while just 34 percent say he should listen less.

That finding contrasts with Trump’s public attacks on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and other GOP senators like Jeff Flake of Arizona.

The poll, conducted from Aug. 15-21, also found that Republicans have mixed feelings about how the president has conducted himself in office. About one-third, 34 percent, say they like his behavior (compared with just 16 percent of Americans overall), but a plurality, 46 percent, say they have mixed feelings on Trump’s conduct in office.

Nineteen percent of Republicans said they dislike how he’s acted. Meanwhile, 58 percent of respondents overall said they dislike Trump’s conduct in office, and an overwhelming 89 percent of Democrats said the same.

A second survey, conducted Aug. 8-21, pegged Trump’s job approval rating at 36 percent, with 63 percent of respondents disapproving. That’s a drop-off from prior months — the president’s approval rating was at 39 percent during an April 4-18 poll, and at 44 percent during a Feb. 28-March 12 poll…..

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image…dailybeast.com

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The 2020 Democratic Presidential primary race has begun….

Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are getting their drop-in’s from the early field Democrats testing the waters for the run for the 2020 Presidential Nomination…Unlike 2016?

The field is wide open…..(Though Biden, Warren, and Sanders are in the lead with Harris rising fast)

Just like that, the 2020 retail campaigning for president began right here in a strip-mall campaign headquarters Monday, when Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti showed up for what he called “the most important race in the country.”

He was talking about the Manchester mayor’s election. Joyce Craig, the Democratic candidate, invited him to join her for an afternoon that also included a speech to the Manchester Young Democrats and a fundraiser. Garcetti worked the crowds, introduced himself as “Eric,” and took a bumper sticker and put it on the back of the black SUV he was driving around in.

“Pay no attention to the Virginia plates,” he said. “It’s a rental.”

On Tuesday, Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.), the only one to have already officially announced, will be here for a two-day trip, trying to get attention for his long-shot bid. On Labor Day, both Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Jason Kander, the Democrat who narrowly lost his U.S. Senate bid in Missouri last year, will be back.

And on Thursday, Sanders — who was in Indiana and Michigan last week — will be in Iowa, along with Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota. Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon will be there in October. Former Vice President Joe Biden, who made his own teasing stop here in Manchester at the end of April, is headed to South Carolina in September.

New Hampshire is the first in the nation primary, but even that’s 29 months away.

Like always, the chatter began the morning after the election, stunted a little by Democrats’ surprise at losing. Behind the scenes, big donors have been getting chased nonstop by candidates who like to deny that they’re anywhere near thinking about being candidates. Strategy sessions are quietly being held. Preliminary calls are going out about potential staff hires. That’s normal, though a little accelerated….

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Kid Rock and the made up bull shit polls….

 over at Five Thirty Eight does  long piece on some suspicious doings in the polling business….

He tracks down the poll that had Kid Rock leading in a possible Michigan  US Senate Race….

Image result for kid rock

Enten got worried when things  started to point to the poll involved was NEVER actually done?….(My comment here when the poll came out was it could be a marketing gimmick)

Could some people do things like this to produce false positives for whoever, which the media would  pick up and carry as a real post that could affecting voting? …..

Is Kid Rock leading the U.S. Senate race in Michigan? A story like that is essentially designed to go viral, and that’s exactly what happened when Delphi Analytica released a poll fielded from July 14 to July 18. Republican Kid Rock earned 30 percent to Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s 26 percent. A sitting U.S. senator was losing to a man who sang the lyric, “If I was president of the good ol’ USA, you know I’d turn our churches into strip clubs and watch the whole world pray.”

The result was so amazing that the poll was quickly spread around the political sections of the internet. Websites like Daily Caller, Political Wireand Twitchy all wrote about it. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott tweeted it out. And finally, Kid Rock himself shared an article from Gateway Pundit about the poll.

There was just one problem: Nobody knew if the poll was real. Delphi Analytica’s website came online July 6, mere weeks before the Kid Rock poll was supposedly conducted. The pollster had basically no fingerprint on the web.

Indeed, Delphi Analytica isn’t a polling firm in any traditional sense, and it’s not entirely clear they even conducted the poll as advertised.

The story of Delphi Analytica, its mysterious origins and its Kid Rock poll show that the line between legitimate and illegitimate pollsters is blurring. Much of the polling industry is moving online, where conducting a survey is far less expensive than making thousands of phone calls. But that lower price has also opened up polling to all sorts of new people: Some are seasoned professionals trying an old craft with a new tool or well-informed, well-meaning amateurs trying to break into the industry, but other characters have less noble goals — they’re pranksters seeking attention and scam artists trying to make a quick buck.

If you’re a political observer interested in polls or a journalist who writes about them, you need to be more careful than ever…..

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Delphi Analytica, the mysterious publisher of the poll, had had its site taken down and had deleted its Twitter account. (One person who contacted Enten said that the purpose of the poll was to move political betting markets, a charge the pollster denied.)

But real or fake, the news story enhanced Kid Rock’s potential political career, and may be more likely to run as a result. Already, former New York Governor George Pataki has endorsed him….

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image…musicconnection.com

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2018 Senate election results…Stays the same…Sabato…

Wouldn’t  the Democrats LOVE to come out with THAT result after next years elections….

We’re still more than a year though….

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Right now we have four Toss-ups: two held by Republicans, and two held by Democrats. If one assumes a 50-50 split on the Toss-ups, and every other seat goes the way we currently rate it, there would be no net change in the Senate. Given the map, that would be a substantial Democratic accomplishment and a missed opportunity for Republicans. But the election’s a long way off and the potential exists for Republicans to make gains next year, too, even if the president’s approval rating doesn’t improve. That would be an unusual result historically, but history is merely a guide. It guarantees nothing, particularly on a Senate map where Democrats are stretched historically thin.”

“One final point: It is highly unusual that there have not been any retirements so far. Usually there are at least a couple of open seats, and typically more than that… This is just a guess, but there probably will be at least an open seat or two by the time we get to next fall. “….

Politicalwire….

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Trump supporters agree with his view on race in America…Trump at 7 months in…Poll…

His first comments was against white power racial supporters…

His  second round of comments pushed that EVERYONE was responsible for the actions in the Charlottesville violence…And he was supporting the view the whites are actually discriminated more than minorities and Jews…

His comments yesterday went back to his first ones in him saying he IS against the White Power movement…

A new PPP Poll reports that most Trump supporters actually support his second comments…..

The Poll asks a few questions that do NOT paint a good picture for Donald Trump numbers wise….

PPP’s newest national poll finds that Donald Trump’s approval rating is pretty steady in the wake of the Charlottesville attack, probably because his supporters think that whites and Christians are the most oppressed groups of people in the country. 40% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing to 53% who disapprove, little change from the 41/55 spread we found for him in July.

The reason Trump hasn’t lost more ground for his widely panned response to the attack is probably that many of his supporters agree with some of the beliefs that led white supremacists to rally in Charlottesville in the first place. Asked what racial group they think faces the most discrimination in America, 45% of Trump voters say it’s white people followed by 17% for Native Americans with 16% picking African Americans, and 5% picking Latinos. Asked what religious group they think faces the most discrimination in America, 54% of Trump voters says it’s Christians followed by 22% for Muslims and 12% for Jews. There is a mindset among many Trump voters that it’s whites and Christians getting trampled on in America that makes it unlikely they would abandon Trump over his ‘both sides’ rhetoric.

Overall 89% of Americans have a negative opinion of neo-Nazis to 3% with a positive one, and 87% have an unfavorable opinion of white supremacists to 4% with a positive one. Just 11% agree with the sentiment that it’s possible for white supremacists and neo-Nazis to be ‘very fine people,’ to 69% who say that’s not possible….

Congress…

Things are continuing to look good for Democrats in 2018, as they lead the generic Congressional ballot 49-35. The 14 point lead for Democrats may be too good to be true though- it’s a function of a highly divided Republican base at this point. While Clinton voters say they’ll vote Democratic for Congress next year 90-4, Trump voters say they will vote Republican by only a 74-13 margin. Part of the reason Republicans have done better than expected in 2014 and 2016 is they were divided earlier in the cycle and came together by the end, we will see if that trend continues in 2018….

Trump approval…

Trump continues to be unpopular, with a 40/53 approval spread. Voters think he has failed on two of the core promises of his campaign. Only 15% believe he has been successful in ‘draining the swamp,’ to 64% who say he hasn’t. Even among Trump’s own voters just 26% think he has delivered on this promise to 53% who say he hasn’t. When it comes to whether Trump has come through on ‘Making America Great Again,’ just 33% of voters say he has to 59% who say he hasn’t….

Trump 2020…

Trump continues to trail both Bernie Sanders (51/38) and Joe Biden (51/39) by double digits in possible 2020 match ups. PPP never found Hillary Clinton up by more than 7 points on Trump in 2016. Sanders and Biden each win over 12-14% of the folks who voted for Trump last year. Also leading Trump in hypothetical contests at this point are Elizabeth Warren (45/40), Mark Cuban (42/38), and Cory Booker and Trump Twitter Target Richard Blumenthal (42/39). Trump ties Kamala Harris at 39% each and John Delaney at 38% each.

Generally speaking just 57% of Republicans want Trump to be the party’s nominee again in 2020 to 29% who say they would prefer someone else. That 28 point margin for Trump against ‘someone else’ is the same as his 28 point lead over Mike Pence at 52/24. Both Ted Cruz (a 40 point deficit to Trump at 62/22) and John Kasich (a 47 point deficit to Trump at 68/21) are evidently weaker potential opponents than ‘someone else.’….

Trump Impeachment…

….for the fourth month in a row we find a plurality of voters in support of impeaching Trump- 48% say he should be impeached to 41% who disagree. And there continues to be a significant yearning for a return to the days of President Obama- 52% of voters say they wish Obama was still President to only 39% who prefer having Trump in the White House….

Trump and the Media….

With the absence of a ‘Crooked Hillary,’ ‘Lying Ted,’ ‘Little Marco,’ or ‘Low Energy Jeb’ to use as his foil while President, Trump has taken to attacking various media outlets as his new foes. He’s losing to them in a way that he never trailed during the campaign in our polling though….

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House Democrats 2018….a distant tsunami forming in their favor?

Maybe….

They will have to climb the gerrymandered mountain, an internal political directional fight and the want to base EVERYTHING on Donald Trump….

This isn’t the first post on the Democrats chances for next years Midterm elections changes, which history says,  SHOULD be good…And it won’t be the last….

A look at things  by NBC News…..

…..some Democrats worry their increasingly urbanized party, led by San Francisco’s Pelosi, New York City’s Schumer, and Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez, who hails from the Washington, D.C., suburbs, has a blind spot to the experience of rural and working-class voters.

“I don’t think people in the beltway are realizing just how toxic the Democratic party brand is in so many parts of the country,” Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, who has has challenged Pelosi’s leadership, said after Democrats lost the Georgia special election.

If they can make inroads with Trump voters, though, the benefits could be enormous. Democrats are expanding the battlefield to a record 80 targeted districts next year, hoping to play the field and catch some breaks, potentially in unexpected places.

“It’s all about getting those people out there on surfboards,” said Dave Gold, a Democratic strategist who has worked to train Democratic candidates. “Otherwise, the wave comes and crashes on the shore and nothing comes of it.”

In an important prerequisite for any wave, candidate recruitment is strong. So far, 209 Democrats had each raised at least $5,000 by the end of June, compared to average of just 43 at similar points in the previous four election cycles, according to a Brookings Institution analysis. Even ahead of Democrats’ 2006 wave, just 48 candidates had reached that fundraising threshold.

Democrats have focused on candidates who break the party’s mold, turning often to veterans with more experience in business than politics. Ohio’s 7th congressional district, around Canton, will be a tough reach, but the party is excited about Ken Harbaugh, a former Navy pilot who now runs Team Rubicon, which enlists veterans to respond to natural disasters all over the world.

In illinois’s 12th congressional district, which covers the southern tip of the state, Democrats finally succeeded in coaxing Brendan Kelly, a district attorney who has prosecuted corrupt politicians in both parties, to take the plunge. And in Kentucky’s 6th, which had a tradition of electing Democrats since the Civil War before Rep. Andy Barr won 2012, Amy McGrath grabbed headlines and saw a fundraising windfall with an announcement video highlighting her experience as the first female Marine to fly in an F-18 jet in combat.

“There’s no reason to think a place that has ancestrally voted Democrat for more than a decade can’t be flipped back in a wave,” said Jeffrey Blehar, an elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ….

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Trump would lose the 3 state’s that got him the Presidency today….Poll…

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote last November….

That was one contest…

But not THE CONTEST…..

You get the job as American President by winning the Electoral vote….

THAT Donald Trump won….

But 7 months after he managed to do something we ALL thought he couldn’t?

Trump has lost the faith of those who enabled him to beat the odds and pundits….(He STILL HAS strong Republican support in those states though, not OVERALL )

In the 2016 presidential election, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin accounted for a combined 46 electoral votes which helped propel Donald Trump into the White House.  But, how do residents of these Rust Belt states think President Trump is doing now?

In each of these states, majorities disapprove of the president’s job performance.  His approval rating hovers in only the mid-thirties.  In Michigan, 36% of residents statewide approve of his job performance, and 55% disapprove.  In Pennsylvania, 33% approve of how President Trump is doing in his post, and 52% disapprove.  Among Wisconsin residents, the president’s score is similarly upside down, 33% to 56%.

“For residents of these three critical electoral states, the reaction to the first round of the Trump presidency is decidedly negative,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Residents are clearly dissatisfied in how candidate Trump transitioned into President Trump.”

Many Republicans and Tea Party supporters are in the president’s camp.  Still, notable proportions of Tea Party supporters in Michigan, 24%, and Pennsylvania, 24%, have doubts about how the president is executing his job.

Trump still has the support of most of those who backed him in the 2016 election.  Most Trump supporters in Michigan, 84%, Pennsylvania, 81%, and Wisconsin, 77%, approve of the president’s job performance.

Among white residents without a college education, President Trump outperforms his overall job performance rating in each of these states.  However, he fails to achieve 50% among this group, many of whom were his most ardent supporters in the 2016 election.  In fact, in Michigan and Wisconsin, the plurality of these residents now disapprove of how the president is doing his job.

By at least two to one, more residents in Michigan, 38%, Pennsylvania, 39%, and Wisconsin, 42%, strongly disapprove than strongly approve of how the president is doing his job…..

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Note…

Remember Trump won the above states by SMALL margins….Those margins in the OVERALL vote are gone according the Marist poll…..

And Barack Obama IS STILL strongly favored in the above states and would easily beat Trump in a had to race if was possible…

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The young Black Woman Trump supporter standing by her man…..

The NY Times is out with a front page story that feature s  Parson Hicks  at first, who as a black female in Boston from the South  would be NOT be expected to be a Donald Trump supporter …..

The piece points to Hicks being against some of Trump policy positions, but firmly supports Trump HIMSELF, and at times must deal with picking out half truths in Trump’s rants….

Ms Hicks is middle class Republican….

Further down in the Times look at other Trump supporters we get mostly white males who like Hicks, scratch their heads at their parties leader (and find rational for his words), but deep down support him because they do NOT want a Democrat against in the White House…

Parson Hicks, 35, a strong supporter of President Trump, dismissed the moral outrage at his remarks about violence in Charlottesville, Va., over the past week.CreditM. Scott Brauer for The New York Times

For Parson Hicks, a health care finance executive who supports President Trump, this past week has felt a little like déjà vu. Mr. Trump says something. His opponents howl and then predict, with certainty, a point of no return.

The last time this happened, she said, was in October with the notorious “Access Hollywood” recording of Mr. Trump talking lewdly about women. His opponents were sure he was finished. His supporters knew better.

“Let’s be honest, the people who are currently outraged are the same people who have always been outraged,” said Ms. Hicks, 35, a lifelong Republican who lives in Boston. “The media makes it seem like something has changed, when in reality nothing has.”

It was a week of incessant tumult, when Mr. Trump tumbled into open warfare with some in his own party over his statements on the violence in Charlottesville, Va.; business executives abandoned his advisory councils; top military leaders pointedly made statements denouncing racism in a way he did not; and his embattled chief strategist, Stephen K. Bannon, stepped down. But around the country, Mr. Trump’s supporters — and, according to many polls, Republicans more broadly — agreed with his interpretation of a swirl of racially charged events and stood with him amid still more clatter and churn.

Sixty-seven percent of Republicans said they approved of the president’s response to the violence in Charlottesville last weekend, compared with just 10 percent of Democrats, according to a CBS News survey conducted over the past week.

It’s an indication of what now seems an almost immutable law of the Trump presidency. There are signs that Mr. Trump’s support among Republican leaders and some Republican voters is weakening. But in an increasingly tribal America, with people on the left and the right getting information from different sources and seeing the same facts in different ways, it reflects the way Mr. Trump has become in many ways both symbol and chief agitator of a divided nation…..

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Elizabeth Warren gets pushback on a lefties only wish for Democrats….

If you haven’t been listening here at the PDog you might think the 2020 Democratic Presidential sweepstakes  hasn’t begun….

You’d be wrong….

Coming out of last November’s Hillary Clinton Clinton loss there was , and still is a push by Bernie sanders and Elizabeth Warren Lefties and Progressives to drag the Democratic party THEIR direction to the EXCUSION of some Democrats who have more moderate views on things like abortion and guns….

It appears that establishment (Obama and Clinton types) and the new Democratic flavor of the month, Senator Kamala Harris, are FIRM in their defense of a ‘Big Tent’ Democratic partying forward for 2018/2020 …..

A Gallup poll out this week showed that more than 6 in 10 liberal respondents have favorable views of Warren. But the same poll showed some respondents were split in support of her: 34 percent said they had a favorable opinion of her while 31 percent viewed her negatively.

While it’s still early in the 2020 race, Obama and Clinton loyalists have signaled that they have a favorite or two among potential candidates, including former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.).

In recent months, Harris has preached inclusivity, calling on Democrats to embrace centrist Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), who have been targeted by the party’s liberal wing.

Amid the 2020 speculation looming around Harris, she has maintained that her immediate priority is helping embattled candidates in the 2018 midterm elections, including moderates and centrists.

“We can’t afford to be purists,” Harris said at an event earlier this year, according to the Los Angeles Times. “You have to ask that question of yourself. Are we going to be purists to this resistance to the point that you let these guys go? Or can you understand that you may not agree with 50 percent of their policy positions, but I can guarantee you will disagree with 100 percent of their replacements’ policy positions. So, that is part of the question. What do we have to do in this movement to be pragmatic?”

At the same time, Warren is fighting to preserve her own space in the 2020 battle, should she choose to run, Manley said…..

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Donald Trump stands Defiant…And increasingly Alone…Open Thread for 8/16/17…

In a pattern that got him last years GOP Presidential nomination and the Presidency itself?

Donald J. Trump has pushed back against what is expected of person who is supposed to be leading the nation and LOUDLY proclaimed HIS version of the truth….

Pushed into walking away from the rightwingnuts that supported him and are against Minorities and Jews…

Trump doubled back to blaming the racial and religious  violence in Charlottesville on EVERYBODY except the White Power types that have been shown on TV being the aggressors…

We’ve always said here the Trump operates in an Alternate Universe and his actions recently seem to be proof…

A mixture of listening to rightwingnuts and anger at being led to do the ‘right thing’ seems to have made the man VERY angry and defiant…

(He STILL has his base people..But even that number is dropping in new polling…They seem to be ALL he has?)

And seems to be pushing him away from what ever support he has had from establishment GOPer’s…Not many are up front in chastising his action in the last 48 hours…But those same establishment GOP lawmakers that he needs to get any legislation passed ?….(Congress voted AGAINST him on Russian sanctions…There is NOT Obamacare Repeal and the Congress is getting ready to take away Trump’s ability to withhold Healthcare Insurance subsidies)

They have to be wondering WTF they would be going out on a limb to do what a New York Real Estate guy, who could give a shit about anybody but him wants….

“After Trump won the election he had the whole party behind him, except for some malcontents in Washington, but that’s shrinking now,” said one GOP strategist who requested anonymity to talk candidly about the president’s standing with his party.

“Even when all we heard about was the dysfunction and staff infighting and leaks, most Republicans were in lockstep behind the president,” the strategist said. “It feels like that is starting to break. It feels like this is getting away from him.”….

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Note….

Trump is sure to point to his being down though in the nomination race and the general election…And how he came back against the odds …BOTH TIMES….

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Trump National approval numbers drop… Republican numbers also…Poll…

The Marist Organization joins other polling outfits in revealing a steady drop in approval Donald Trump moving into 8th month of being President…

65% of American do NOT like his being in office….

Trump’s supporters like to point to his approval among Republicans as being double that of the general public….

But the Maris poll has the Republican approval dropping almost 20% points in the 8 months since Trump got sworn in…

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is at its lowest point since taking office with only 35% of Americans giving him a positive score.  55% disapprove of the job he is doing which is his highest negative rating as president.  Although still popular among his key constituency, notably, his job performance rating has dropped among strong Republicans from 91% in June to 79% now. In addition, by more than two to one, Americans who strongly disapprove of his job performance, 42%, outnumber those who strongly approve, 20%.  In June, his overall approval rating stood at 37%, and 51% disapproved.  At a similar time in President Obama’s tenure, 55% of registered voters approved of the job he was doing, and 35% disapproved.

“While Republicans are still largely in Trump’s corner, the cautionary tale for the president lies in the softening of support at his base,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Since his numbers among Democrats and independents are weak, a crack among his most ardent supporters is something Trump can ill afford.”

More Americans also have a negative impression of the president. 60% of residents, including one in five Republicans, view Trump unfavorably, representing his most unpopular standing since assuming office.  Only 34% have a favorable view of him.  When this question was last reported in June, Trump’s negative score was 56%, and his positive rating was 37%.  There has been a drop in the proportion of strong Republicans who have a positive view of the president from 94% in June to 80% this time…..

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Anti-Trump Independents as a Third party?

Fed up with Trump co-opting the Republicans and fed up with Democrats?

A Centrist Party group third party get together is in the works….

(The piece points to this being a majority disenchanted GOPer thing….)

The independents are banding together.

That is, 13 independent candidates who feel they don’t fit in the Republican Party in the age of Donald Trump are joining forces with a few registered Democrats, all looking at runs for governor and Senate in 2018. The plan is to create shared infrastructure and funding for a slate of campaigns around the country, in the hopes of making this more than the latest go-nowhere whining about how awful the two-party system is.

But with a historically unpopular Republican president in the White House and a Democratic Party in epic disarray, they think this is actually their moment.

On Friday, leaning hard into the symbolism of declaring their independence, the group—put together by the Centrist Project, founded by Charles Wheelan, an academic at Dartmouth—will meet at the Union League in downtown Philadelphia for a weekend-long mini-convention. They’ll get briefings on campaign mechanics and polling. They’ll get a rundown on potential staff hires and interested donors. A member of En Marche, French President Emmanuel Macron’s party, will do a briefing on how a party that didn’t exist a year ago won the presidency and now a majority in the National Assembly. Two prominent former Republican operatives—Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for George W. Bush’s 2004 campaign, and Reed Galen, who worked on both Bush campaigns and was John McCain’s 2008 deputy campaign manager—will weigh in with advice.

The model, they hope: Alaska Gov. Bill Walker, a lifelong Republican who quit the party two months before the 2014 election, picked a Democrat as his lieutenant governor/running mate, and squeaked out a win against the Republican incumbent. Walker recently announced he’s running for reelection, and he says he never looked back at his decision to leave the GOP—and that was before Trump split the party with a working-class message and heretical stances on entitlement programs, trade and basic decorum….

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Note….

The mention of France’s Macron is a bad example..His  numbers have dropped from 65% approval to 36%…..

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FiveThirtyEight’s look back at why the Media missed the boat on last years Presidential…

Image result for clinton/trump

In a piece written back in January (and with updated links below) Nate Silver blames just about EVERYBODY on oversimplifying last years election reporting and predictions….

He blames the polling for being overly nationalistic…

he blames the pundits and forecasters for NOT realizing the extent of damage James Comey inflicted on the Clinton campaign…

He blames the media for herd journalism and not noticing later in the campaign the changes in the polling…

He blames his own self for following the thought that Hillary Clinton could NOT lose….

And he blames the NY Times for running two shops….

One the inside one that sold the idea that Hillary Clinton WOULD win no matter what….

And the political side like the Upshot that DID notice and report the closeness of the race in the end….

 

I didn’t really see it but Silver claims that the media is NOW trying to make up for it’s miss by overselling the idea that Trump’s Republican support NOW is stronger than the polling shows….

Consistent polling over the last several weeks HAS shown that President Trump IS losing support down to the middle 30%’s….A level that is lower than any President in modern history….

 

I believe that Silver is arguing that the polls REALLY did NOT get things that far off the mark…

Trump LOST the popular vote…

Silver argues that Clinton’s big electoral win was more of Pennsylvania and Florida not the other few states….That she gained with Latino’s but lost with the Democratic bedrock vote of Blacks’…And that her ground game wasn’t all that bad.

And points NOT to Trump’s strength in campaigning, but to the loss of less educated white males in swing states….(Later polling analysis shows that Middle Class white’s in those two states also left Clinton hanging…)

The picture further goes to show that while Democrats do well in Blue states?

They are at a disadvantage in the electoral college if they cannot pull in the swing states…The idea that the popular vote demographic FAVOR Democrats is the opposite of the electoral college field…

To win you must win TWO distinctly difference election races on Presidential election day…

Here’s the link….

Winning the job of President of the United States is a HIGHLY complex endeavor and Nate Silver’s piece kinda says sometimes the win fell to a  guy who just beat people down for his adopted parties nomination and just lucked out running against an unpopular woman, who made mistakes in her personal life she couldn’t sell to the right voters….

image….wsbtv.com

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Young White Guys and the Democrats future candidates list…

As the post Barack Obama Democratic party regroups from Hillary Clinton win/lose last November?

FiveThirtyEight points to something nobody seems to have said out loud….

A good amount of the people running for office for the Democrats are fairly young while males….

They are NOT cut from the Bernie Sanders cloth either….

A few are ex-military and most of them are pragmatic , borrowing a bit from the parties left and middle…They are more of the Bill Clinton ‘feel ya pain’ types that can gain the white vote that Obama lost since 2010 , while trying to keep the minority vote he commanded….(Black tend vote Democratic in the end?…Well they can stay at home a bit like they did for Hillary Clinton also)

Obama, of course, was a figure of incredible historical import — the first black major party nominee and then the first black president. His promise of change was economic — he was the (relative) outsider fixing the mess of the financial crisis created by craven New York and D.C. insiders — but also cultural: voters, black and white, could cast a ballot for him and be a part of history.

Kander, Ossoff, Perriello, and Buttigieg offer the promise of change as well, but the meaning of that change is more vaguely implied. Each has promised to bring the message of the Democratic Party back to the people it has forgotten. That’s all well and good, but who exactly are those people?

Clockwise from upper left: Jon Ossoff, Tom Perriello, Jason Kander, Pete Buttigieg.

GETTY IMAGES

Since the election, a debate has been raging in the Democratic Party about the best path to electoral victory: appeal to whites who voted for Obama and later Trump, or turn out those who stayed home in 2016, namely black voters?

This group of newcomers’ appeal is in part to white voters, and the attention given to Kander, Ossoff, Perriello and Buttigieg in recent months suggests Democrats are, consciously or not, leaning most toward the plan of winning back white voters. Election results for these men do show certain promising patterns. Though Kander lost his Senate race, he outperformed Clinton’s 2016 and Obama’s 2012 showing in a number of places and outright won counties that neither Clinton nor Obama could swing, namely Platte and Clay, outside Kansas City. Both Platte and Clay are wealthy and white places — each is 87 percent white, and the median income is $68,254 in Platte, $62,099 in Clay — and are in Missouri’s 6th Congressional District, represented by Republican Sam Graves. Graves won reelection in 2016 with 68 percent of the vote in the district…..

More…

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