Category Archives: Polls

13 Things that Politico says the media gets wrong about Donald Trump….

The piece is from different people on each of the points…….Anybody think editiors at any of the cable networks or political desks at the nations leading newspapers are gonna read the linked piece below?….or change the way they cover Trump?

1. We forget what has always driven Trump.
Gwenda Blair, author of The Trumps: Three Generations of Builders and a President

Too often, the press forgets the very lessons Trump himself has taught us about how he operates and why it often works. For example, journalists often imply that Trump’s reliance on cable news is a liability because it leaves him ill-informed. And so it does—but it also leaves him highly attuned to that medium and able to respond to what he sees there with immediate, pitch-perfect tweets or other comments that come across as direct, authentic and trustworthy…..
2. Trump. Won’t. Change.
Kurt Bardella, president and CEO of Endeavor Strategies

Anyone who thought Trump would pivot and become a more conventional political figure after he took the oath of office was completely misreading him and his psyche. Trump is, and always will be, a promoter. Facts and specifics are secondary to tone, style and strength. In the immediate aftermath of his first address to Congress, the political and media community was quick to point to that speech as a turning point. For one hour, Trump acted presidential—“acted” being the key word. Days later, he took to Twitter and remarkably and falsely accused his predecessor of wiretapping his offices. So much for turning over a new leaf. And that’s the point: No matter what happens, how far his numbers plummet or how often his statements are fact-checked, Trump is not going to change, and his audience doesn’t want him to. For almost a decade now, the American people have been bombarded with messaging from campaigns that highlight how Washington is broken,….

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Open Thread for May 4, 2017….Republicans will vote for a Healthcare Bill that could cost them the House…

Donald Trump desperately needs to for fill a major campaign promise….

Real the Obama Healthcare Bill!

The Republican Majority House has been unable to get the votes to do so about 22 times…

The Affordable Healthcare law under the assistance of the Republicans efforts to get rid of it has become MORE popular…

Republican House members going home are greeting with protests across the country against repealing the law…

Republican Governors across the country are using the law to increase healthcare for their states and balance their budgets…

The Congresses OWN bean counters have revealed that repealing the law would knock at least 24 Million American out of healthcare coverage….

The vote to day is on a revised bill that the Republicans have made sure there is NO review of how bad it might be…

The numbers are close…

One media out fit has 19 sure NO’s and up to 35 maybe’s from Republican House members…

If there are 22 or more GOP holdout’s  against the bill come later today there will be not vote taken….

We’ll see if making a guy who campaigned against their party, while adopting it will preserver over the worries of lawmakers losing their jobs come next year due to back lash from those losing their health insurance?

It IS a KNOWN that whatever the House votes on today won’t make it thru the Senate…

So why would ANY Republican House member want to risk pissing their district’s voters off for supporting Donald Trump?

“With the American Medical Association and the AARP lobbying for no’s, plus Jimmy Kimmel’s breaking through with a searing personal story, nothing has changed about the basic politics, even as the bill itself has changed. (One thing that hasn’t changed in recent drafts, despite promises to the contrary: special treatment for members of Congress and their staffs.)”

“Call it walking the plank, or ‘doo-doo stuck to their shoe’ (to quote House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi), but this is a vote and a move than can’t be taken back. Seven years of GOP promises haven’t changed the fact that Republicans have never really wanted to do what they said they wanted to do. They’re now led by a president who has said plenty of other things, and is more than willing to change where he stands anyway. Republicans are placing trust in their teamwork, on a bill where the impact will be determined in individual states and with unpredictable consequences.”….

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New poll gives New Jersey Democrat Phil Murphy a monster 50-25 lead in this fall’s governor race

Former Saturday Night Live castmember Joe Piscopo has finally put us out of our misery and announced that, rather than run for governor of New Jersey this year as an independent, he will instead endorse GOP Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno. However, according to a new Quinnipiac poll, it’s going to take a whole lot more than Jersey Joe’s support to get Guadagno to Drumthwacket.

Quinnipiac gives Phil Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive and the clear Democratic primary frontrunner, a monster 50-25 lead in a hypothetical general election, not much different than the 47-25 edge the found in March. Neither candidate is still very well-known, though Murphy’s 28-12 score is much better than Guadagno’s 18-23 image. This time, Quinnipiac does not appear to have asked respondents how they feel about termed-out GOP Gov. Chris Christie, but previous surveys from multiple groups have given him a horrible approval rating. Christie and Guadagno do not have a good relationship, but not enough people in the Garden State seem to know that or care.

Quinnipiac also takes a look at both parties’ June 6 primaries, and most voters still are undecided….

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Note….

Goldman Sach’s has been the bulklpen for Washington politics since Trump won….

The Dog….

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GA-06 Update…Ossoff up 48% to 47%….

Basically a tie, which is damn good for Democrat Jon Ossoff….

An internal poll conducted for Democrat Jon Ossoff’s campaignshows him locked in a dead heat with Republican Karen Handel in the June 20 runoff to represent Georgia’s 6th District.

The poll was conducted by Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, a polling firm that worked for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. And while it’s an internal poll, it’s also the first we’ve seen since Ossoff narrowly missed an outright win in last month’s special election.

It shows Ossoff leading Handel 48-47, well within the 4 percent margin of error. It has a scant 5 percent of voters in the district as undecided – reflective of the all-consuming nature of the nationally-watched race.

Ossoff campaign manager Keenan Pontoni said it shows the 30-year-old Democrat, until a few months ago scarcely known in the district, is “winning” thanks to on-the-ground enthusiasm….

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image…AJC.com

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Donald Trump releases his first 2020 re-election campaign ad already….

The guy has over 13 million already banked for a possible second term that a good many of us think will never come…

Democrats still haven’t gotten over Hillary Clintin’s loss….

Arguing that the “mainstream media lies,” President Trump unveiled a new ad over the weekend aimed at promoting his first 100 days in office.

(Note that this isn’t the first version of the ad. The original, viewable here, had a shot of national security adviser H.R. McMaster in uniform, replaced with a factory worker.)

There’s a great deal of fact-checking and context that could be added to that spot. Given that Trump aims to spend a reported $1.5 million to run the ad nationwide, there will be time enough to flesh out what he claims and what is objectively the case.

Instead of focusing on that, let’s now focus on something else: the remarkable fact that a sitting president is beginning to run television ads to promote his reelection bid 174 days after he won the first time.

Yes, this is a campaign ad. The fundraising effort will benefit “Donald Trump for President,” Trump’s campaign vehicle. The 2016 campaign is never far from Trump’s mind, given how often he talks about its outcome and how often he excoriates his former opponent. But the 2020 campaign is also surprisingly near….

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Are the polls on Trump correct?

Mark Penn , the Bill Clinton polling guy out on his own now says that they may be a bit misleading….

While Trump certainly isn’t above 50%…..

Penn points out that polls maybe mising what Hil;lary Clinton and Democrats have been missing for quite a while….

American discontent on some the issues Trump strikes out at….

Immigration and Trade….

Interestingly?

On both Trump has been throtted by the reality that the issues themslives are much more complex and far rewaching than Trump thought they would be…

But I do agree that America isn’t as left leaning as some in the media try to show it as…Though Trump it should be pointed out SILL does NOT have the support of the majority of American’s across the board…..

The current crop of stories also sets Trump ratings expectations, as though America went through the typical process of coming together around the winner. Instead we had recounts, Russian conspiracies, investigations and rallies unlike any seen after any election. The country was sharply politically divided on Election Day and remains that way today. That is the backdrop of any realistic assessment of what is happening in America.

But there are some facts and trends that are being missed in the polls.

First, Trump is likely NOT at 40 percent approval with the American electorate. He is likely higher. Trump got 46.1 percent of the popular vote, several million votes less than Clinton did, but neither candidate got a majority. Six million voters opted for a libertarian candidate and most of those votes would never go to a liberal Democrat. And when all of the congressional votes were tallied, Republicans got 3 million more votes than the Democrats and won a majority of both the popular vote and of the seats in Congress.

The recent special election in Georgia came out about the same as the Trump/Hillary vote, with Republicans nosing out Democrats. As The Washington Post poll reported, a replay of the Trump/Hillary race would today come out more for Trump than Hillary.

So what is the disconnect between polls that show his job rating at 40 and the electoral results? The major network polls all now report “U.S adults” as the sampling frame, not people who voted in the last election or expect to vote in the next one. The non-voters include 11 million undocumented aliens and a lot of folks who liked neither candidate and stayed home, as well as younger people who have lower rates of participation. These polls should not be confused with the views of the American electorate….

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2016 Presidential Voting Analysis…Trump stole the White Working Class vote from Hillary…

This isn’t a surprise….

The number cructhers are just confirming what a lot of us had figured out…

Turnout for Democrats won’t get them the White House in 2020….

So moving the WHOLE party to the left is NOT the answer for the future….

Getting WHITE  swing voters back IS the ANSWER….

The numbers have  STRONG race implication in that white Republicans tipped the scales by narrow margins in the states that gave Trump electoral win, NOT the overal vote win….(Interestingly Obama got the swing voters for 2008/2012…Clinton did NOT)

Remember despite the larger electoral numbers for Trump?

He only won the election by less than 100,000 of 150 Million votes….

In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout.

Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected.

To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was mainly among black voters. Even there, the scale of Democratic weakness has been exaggerated.

Instead, it’s clear that large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. Over all, almost one in four of President Obama’s 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016, either supporting Mr. Trump or voting for a third-party candidate.

This analysis compares official voter files — data not available until months after the election — with The Upshot’s pre-election turnout projections in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The turnout patterns evident in these states are representative of broader trends throughout the battleground states and nationwide.

The turnout was slightly and consistently more favorable for Mr. Trump across all three states. But the turnout edge was small; in one of the closest elections in American history, it might not have represented his margin of victory….

This was part of a broader national pattern. Mr. Trump’s turnout edge was nonexistent or reversed in states with a large Hispanic population and a small black population, like Arizona. His turnout advantage was largest in states with a large black population and few Hispanic voters, like North Carolina.

What was consistent across most states, however, was higher-than-expected white turnout.

The increase in white turnout was broad, including among young voters, Democrats, Republicans, unaffiliated voters, urban, rural, and the likeliest supporters of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump. The greatest increases were among young and unaffiliated white voters.

For this reason alone, it’s hard to argue that turnout was responsible for the preponderance of Mr. Trump’s gains among white voters. The turnout among young and white Democratic voters was quite strong.

But the turnout was generally stronger among the likeliest white Trump supporters than among the likeliest white Clinton supporters….

The stronger Republican turnout among white voters narrowed the Democratic registration edge below pre-election expectations in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina…..

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Note…

There is gonn ahve to be more looks for exacyly why thios occurred…

Was it Trump, Clinton or Obama?

Surely a bit of the three and other factors….

But how much?

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Trump day 98…Few Surprises….

Donald Trump has been living the American White House for 98 days…

While some might be running around with their hair on fire still?

This Dog isn’t….

Image result for donald trump president

President Donald J. Trump is mostly who he was before he got his new job….

A 70 year old  entertainer that that gave up his full time Real Estate job for a stint in Politics and Government…

Trump IS learning on the job that his new job is a LOT more difficult than he though it would be…

Trump HAS been up to his old Real Estate tricks which served him well during the recent campaign…

Go HARD at any adversary …

Make shit up if you have to…..

Then at the last minute back-up and make a deal using OTHER people’s money…

NOT Yours…

It’s been the same during the last 98 days….

Trump has gone hard on….

Immigration…

The Russians….

A Muslim Travel Ban…

A Bigger, Longer and better looking Wall on the US?Mexican Border…

Throwing out existing Trade Agreements with China, Mexico, and Canada among others…

Getting 8 major American Cities and the state of California to buddy up with ICE immigrant hunting…

and Of course trying to Repeal the Affordable  Healthcare Law , which has the nickname of Obamacare…

 

Please recheck the list immediately above…

Donald J. Trump has been UNABLE to find JOY with any of the ABOVE…

Sure he has been signing off on executive orders that reverse President Obama’s orders….

And he has done some military actions that made the headlines….

But on the whole?

Donald Trump has NOT be able run his act like he PROMISED….

 

Between Democrats, The Courts, Media , his supporters  and his adopted Republican Party?

Things have been sloppy and disappointing….

But….

His base IS still eating his sidewalk ACT up….

And the Media is only too happy asking questions and featuring  him , like he wants, as the Hit Parade….

image…usmagazine.com

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Could Los Angeles Riots return?

A poll of Los Angles residents  come back with a majority thinking YES they could return due to conditions in the area …

Nearly 6 out of 10 Angelenos think another riot is likely in the next five years, increasing for the first time after two decades of steady decline. That’s higher than in any year except for 1997, the first year the survey was conducted, and more than a 10-point jump compared with the 2012 survey.

Young adults ages 18 to 29, who didn’t directly experience the riots, were more likely than older residents to feel another riot was a possibility, with nearly 7 out of 10 saying one was likely, compared with about half of those 45 or older. Those who were unemployed or worked part-time were also more pessimistic, as were black and Latino residents, compared with whites and Asians, the poll found.

Researchers theorized that the turnaround may be linked to several factors, including the more polarized national dialogue on race sparked by police shootings in Ferguson, Mo., and elsewhere, as well as by the tenor of last year’s presidential election. Moreover, many parts of L.A. still suffer from some of the economic problems and lack of opportunities that fueled anger before the riots…

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Will Wisconsin and Pennsylvania stay Blue after Trump’s win?

THAT is a critical question for Democrats going into the 2020 Presidential election electoral college politics …..

Below is from Stu Rothenberg….

Are Wisconsin and Pennsylvania realigning with the GOP, or were Donald Trump’s victories in both states – and the accompanying Republican Senate wins last year – merely aberrations?

The answer will likely impact the fate of the country’s two major parties over the next decade.

Partisan realignments follow from significant attitudinal and behavioral changes by voter groups, or by a fundamental change in the make-up of the electorate. But rates of change can differ.

Most Southern states changed party allegiance quickly, as did West Virginia in 2000. It isn’t that Republicans suddenly won every election in those states. Some Democratic officeholders with the strongest grassroots strength held on. But when they left office, their seats flipped to the GOP, first in federal contests and eventually in state legislative races. (Democrats can still be competitive in some contests for state office.)

Of course, not all Southern states flipped simultaneously. The Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton presidencies delayed realignment in their home states, and downscale, white working-class voters in Louisiana and Arkansas retained their Democratic identification longer than white voters elsewhere in the region.

At some point, white voters in these states simply decided that the national Democratic Party had changed and no longer represented them. And those voters moved en masse to the GOP.

But other realignments over the past 40 years have developed more slowly, the result of evolving voter perceptions about the positioning of the national parties….

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GA-06 Spec Election Democratic turnout ‘unusually strong’….

The Democratic base HAS stayed energized since Trump moived into the White House…

The aim for the party would be to KEEP this going for another year and half for the 2018 Midterme elections….

If THAT is possible?

Democrats could very well stun eveyone a recapture a US House majority…And even a US Senate majority might just be possibe to pull off?

But first a win on June 20th in the GA-06 would suit Democrats fine…

Jon Ossoff benefited from an unusually strong turnout in the first round of voting in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District last week, surpassing all recent benchmarks for Democratic turnout in an off-year election, according to an Upshot analysis of newly released voting data.

Past Democratic primary voters represented a larger share of the district’s voters than they did in 2016 or 2014, and they turned out in greater numbers than in a typical midterm election.

The election in Georgia’s Sixth is only the latest in a string of special elections where Democrats have turned out in impressive numbers. It’s a reversal from recent off-year elections, when Republicans turned out at far greater rates than Democrats.

If the pattern holds into next year’s midterm elections, it will help the party’s long-shot goal to win back the House. Historically, Democratic midterm turnout has been stronger when Republicans hold the presidency.

The Republican turnout was not weak. Past Republican primary voters turned out at rates that were nearly typical for a midterm — a rare feat for a special election. It was enough to keep Mr. Ossoff beneath the 50 percent necessary to win outright.

But Democrats did something even rarer: A larger percentage of Democratic primary voters turned out than did Republican primary voters, by a four-percentage-point margin. Even when Democrats surged in successful years nationally in 2006, 2008 and 2012, their turnout of primary voters didn’t beat that of the Republicans, either nationwide or in Georgia’s Sixth….

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American’s want MORE Government…Not Less…

The Republicans mantra is LESS government…

THAT isn’t what American want….

Is the Republican Partygoing the WRONG way with the majority of American voters who voted AGAINST Donald Trump

RIP, Tea Party: A record number of Americans say government “should do more”

And this is another striking finding from the NBC/WSJ poll: 57% of the public says that the government should do more to solve problems and meet the needs of Americans, versus 39% who said the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. That’s the highest share yearning for a more active government since the poll began asking voters about the role of government in 1995. And it’s a significant shift even since 2015, when 50% said that the government should do more while 46% complained that it was too active. More NBC/WSJ poll numbers are coming out later today….

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In November, voters gave control of the White House and Capitol Hill to the party traditionally associated with reducing the size of government. But now, a record number of Americans say that the government should do more — not less — in order to solve the nation’s problems.

A new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll finds 57 percent of the public saying that the government should do more to solve problems and meet the needs of Americans, versus 39 percent who said the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.

That’s the highest share yearning for a more active government since the poll began asking voters about the role of government in 1995. And it’s a significant shift even since 2015, when 50 percent said that the government should do more while 46 percent complained that it was too active….

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Republicans begin to worry if Trump will cost them in next years MidTerm elections…

Again?

The word has been that Republicans would have the political advantage in keeping and even increasing their majorities in the US House and Senate….

But?

That isn’t what a LOT of of people beginning to think with Donald Trump running high disapproval numbers, slow government startup and his issistance on trying to get stuff passed that isn’t gonna happen…

Republicans say President Donald Trump needs to turn things around fast — or the GOP could pay dearly in 2018.

With the party preparing to defend its congressional majorities in next year’s midterms, senior Republicans are expressing early concern about Trump’s lack of legislative accomplishments, his record-low approval ratings, and the overall dysfunction that’s gripped his administration.

The stumbles have drawn the attention of everyone from GOP mega-donor Sheldon Adelson, who funneled tens of millions of dollars into Trump’s election and is relied upon to bankroll the party’s House and Senate campaigns, to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Adelson hasn’t contributed to pro-Trump outside groups since the inauguration, a move that’s drawn notice within the party, and McConnell is warning associates that Trump’s unpopularity could weigh down the GOP in the election.

Potential GOP candidates whom party leaders want to recruit are afraid of walking into a buzz saw, uncertain about what kind of political environment they’ll be facing by the time the midterms come around — and what Trump’s record will look like….

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Donald Trump STILL lives in a Alternate Universe….

……The guy apparently doesn’t know what ACTUALLY happened in November?…..

…twitter….

Trump is tweeting today about how he “would still beat Hillary in popular vote.” Just a reminder: He lost the popular vote.

New polls out today are very good considering that much of the media is FAKE and almost always negative. Would still beat Hillary in …..

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While Trump holds his base?…Resistance to his Presidency grows…

Could the mounting pushback against Trump and the Republican majority in Congress and across the countries state office holders echo the 2010 and 2012 AGAINST Republicans come next years Midterm Elections?

Is Trump working almost singlehandedly to help Democrats who have taken HUGE political loses under Obama’s time in office?

From pink-hatted protesters to big town hall turnout, the anti-Trump resistance has been in full swing since January’s inauguration. The left is taking a page out of the Tea Party playbook, and building the resistance from the grassroots up.

Why it matters: We saw a similar rise on the right in 2009-2010 shortly after Obama was inaugurated, and a huge number of Republican lawmakers were voted into office. That movement shook up US politics and changed the face of the Republican Party, and we could see similar aftershocks here.

Money:

Media:

  • The most engaged partisan Facebook pages belong to left-leaning and Trump resistance groups. These pages are outperforming popular news competitors in overall engagement.
  • Anti-Trump sites launched across the web — some with prominent names behind them, such as ‘Crooked Media,’ by former Obama staffers and ‘Resistance Calendar,’ by filmmaker Michael Moore.
  • Cell phone apps and internet start ups that send daily text messages about getting involved have emerged with hundreds of thousands of followers.

Politics:

  • Former politicians are getting involved. Barbara Boxer’s Fight Back PAC is establishing itself against Trump’s agenda but also as a movement to win votes for progressives.
  • Trump’s disapproval rating is on the rise: 57% – Quinnipiac, 55% – Gallup Daily Tracker, 52% – Economist/YouGov, 49% – Marist
  • Congressional town halls and protests have been flooded with angry voices over what has been dubbed the ‘resistance recess.’ The movement was loud enough to get a response via twitter from President Trump.
  • Activism among liberal democrats is on the rise:
    • 47% of liberal Dems report say they’ve gotten involved in the last past two months, compared to 23% of all adults.
    • Liberal Dems, more than any other group, anticipate taking part in activism in the next two years
Peaceful protests:

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Polling continues to point to Trump’s minority support status….

Public Policy Polling is out joining the others in showing a President coming up on 100 days in offoce that has Most America distrustful of a lot of his domestic and foreign policies….(They want him to play less Golf)

The April 2017 poll isn’t good news for other Republican lawmakers in leadership spots either…

PPP’s newest national poll finds that the Democratic enthusiasm that led to strong finishes in special elections in Georgia and Kansas over the last week is a national phenomenon.

Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 47-41. But what’s more notable is the enthusiasm imbalance. 63% of Democrats say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting in the 2018 election, compared to only 52% of Republicans who express that sentiment. When you look at the 2018 House picture just among the voters most excited about turning out next year, the lead for Democrats grows to 19 points at 57-38. Republican leaning voters are comparatively disengaged, with the GOP holding advantages only among voters who are ‘somewhat excited’ (48-40) and ‘not that excited’ (46-31).

One reason for the comparative lack of Republican excitement may be the continued unpopularity of Donald Trump. Only 43% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 50% who disapprove. The core promise of Trump’s campaign was to ‘Make America Great Again,’ but only 35% of voters actually think he’s accomplished that goal to 55% who think he hasn’t.

Foreign policy has taken on a larger role in the national discussion in recent weeks and Trump’s leadership on that front isn’t inspiring a ton of confidence. 39% of voters think he will get the United States into World War III during his Presidency, to just 40% of voters who don’t think he’s going to have that effect. Trump has continued to attack the Obama administration’s approach to foreign policy lately, but by a 51/39 spread voters think Obama had a better handle on foreign policy than Trump. And by a 51/43 split, voters would rather still have Obama than Trump as President overall….

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