Category Archives: Polls

Cook Report is still forecasting Democrats get the House next year….

While the Democrats are 0 for 5 in Special House races…..

The people over at Charlie Cook’s Political Report are seeing a ‘wave’  election for Democrats next year that could put Nancy Pelosi back as Speaker of the House and tie Republicans in knots…..

This is a tricky point in the election cycle to begin making predictions. On one hand, the danger signs are everywhere for the GOP: President Trump’s approval is mired in the high 30s, and support for the AHCA’s legislation is stuck in the high teens, and Democrats have been significantly over-performing—despite falling short—in a broad array of special elections. They also lead most national generic ballot tests by high single digits.

Race by race, the data isn’t much better for Republicans. Multiple public and private polls now show House Republican incumbents who won by wide margins last fall tied with or trailing real and hypothetical opponents. For example, GOP Rep. Martha McSally (AZ-02) cruised by 14 points last fall. After voting for the AHCA, she’s running even in two surveys against former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, whose impending bid is the worst-kept secret in Tucson.

Taken as a whole, the evidence would seem to point to a wave election that would justify moving a slew of races into the Toss Up column and threaten GOP control of the House.

Except, the election isn’t this November; it’s still 16 months away. The fact these warning lights are flashing now means Republicans won’t be caught off guard like many incumbents were in 2006 and 2010—they will have time to raise millions, conduct opposition research and define their opponents early. And Democrats aren’t rushing to topple Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who has proven an effective foil for GOP House candidates…..

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Political Roundup for July 6, 2017…Gary Cohn and Conservatives?…RRH Elections

Presidential/National

Cohn:  Conservatives are afraid that President Trump (R)’s National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn is driving the Trump administration to a more moderate policy tone.  Cohn’s NEC has been front and center in many of the policy battles so far because it has been better staffed from a policy perspective than other areas of the administration.

Travel Ban:  6 in 10 Americans support a travel ban for individuals from 6 predominately Muslim countries.  The ban might even be more popular if separated from the President.  Note to Democrats and wimpy Acela Corridor Republicans… Americans love this stuff and you should too….

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Congress and Donald Trump….Open Thread for July 3, 2017

Democrats are so messed up these days that Barack Obama is  now quietly try to put the party together ….

They are STILL fighting last years Presidential nomination….

The Republicans seem to have fallen  for their adopted leader……

But WAIT?

There ARE signs that Congress is slowly attempting to go its own way …..

Image result for Ryan/mcconnell

The Senate OVERWHELMINGLY passed a bill continuing sanctions against Russia…

Trump is trying to get the House to water the bill down….

The problems in the Senate and Healthcare is an indication that some Senators are not going along with McConnell AND Trump…

The quiet push to have Trump backdown against Mueller also adds to the quiet push backs AGAINST Trump…

While he has support?

Things ARE slowly eroding….

Which IS normal

And will apply to Trump like other President’s…

partisanship is not a static phenomenon—its forms and patterns change over time. When presidents’ standing in the public sphere is low, they often have trouble getting cooperation even from members of their own party. Think of George W. Bush’s inability to reform Social Security or to get Harriet Miers confirmed to the Supreme Court, or even the trouble that Obama had moving certain nominees (Dawn Johnsen, Goodwin Liu and Debo Adegbile, for example) through Democratic Senates.

If Trump remains unpopular—and especially if his unpopularity drags down the reelection prospects of other Republicans, as this year’s special elections thus far suggest he might—then conditions will be especially ripe for Republican pushback. And, at the extreme, if Trump’s presidency at some point really does look like it’s going down in flames, Republicans might sense the chance to develop a bipartisan reputation for heroism by vigorously opposing him…..

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image….politico.com

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Trump disapproval at 57 percent….Poll

But the guy STILL has Republicans backing him….

Almost 60 percent of Americans disapprove of the job President Trump is doing, according to Gallup’s daily tracking poll.

The disapproval rating, 57 percent, is slightly lower than when Trump reached record disapproval of 60 percent during mid-June, according to the poll.

Between the disapproval and approval ratings, there is a 20-percentage-point difference, with 37 percent of those surveyed in the latest poll saying they approve of the job Trump is doing.

The approval rating is also near the daily poll’s record low mark of 35 percent that occurred in late March.

The past two Democratic presidents, former President Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton, never faced a 60 percent disapproval in the Gallup survey….

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Single Payer Health Insurance plan gets more and more mentions…

Republicans ARE having a tough time balancing between wants of Conservatives and Moderates Senators n their OWN party concerning Healthcare……

While throwing the entire healthcare insurance program for ALL Americans to the  government is NOT gonna happen any time soon with Republicans in the majority in Congress and owning the White House?

The Single Payer program is being mentioned out loud ……

We still don’t know who will ultimately prevail in the debate over the future of American health care: the Republicans who want to overhaul Obamacare, or the Democrats who want to keep it in place.

But after weeks of debate, there is one clear winner so far: single-payer health care.

No, single-payer isn’t going to happen at the end of this debate — or even the end of this year or this decade, necessarily. But the logical foundations for it are being laid in our political debate just about every single day. And when you pair that with the rising public support for government-run health care, it’s clear in which direction this whole debate is trending.

The most surprising aspect of the current health-care debate, for me, has been how Republicans have essentially given up on making the conservative case for their bills. They aren’t even arguing that the free market would lead to higher-quality care, efficiency and medical advancements, as the GOP of old might have. Instead, they are trying to obscure the reality that their bills would cut Medicaid by hundreds of millions of dollars (versus where funding is currently set) and would increase the number of uninsured Americans by potential 20 million or more.

Part of this is because that’s a losing argument. The reality of entitlement programs and government benefits is that, once they are instituted, it’s very, very difficult to get rid of them or even scale them back. Just look at what happened to the GOP when it suggested privatizing Social Security last decade…..

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Republicans Voters seem to getting used to Trump?

Another piece on what Democrat Chuck Schumer and others have come to realize…

That attacking JUST Donald Trump for being who he is isn’t gonna get Democrats wins in the House races they need to retake the House…

Democrats need quickly move themselves to where they can capture votes  in the districts that left them ….Not bolster up they ones they already have….

What if Republican voters who don’t particularly like President Donald Trump are also able to compartmentalize their votes? What if they dislike Democrats more than they do the president? What if, rather than being punished for Trump’s unpopularity, local candidates are rewarded for their moderation? This would be a disaster for Democrats. And Tuesday’s runoff election in Georgia’s Sixth District shows that it might be possible.

Now, had Jon Ossoff come out ahead of Karen Handel, the coverage would have painted this as a game-changing moment: a referendum on conservatism itself, a harbinger of a coming liberal wave, and a rejection of Trump’s disastrous presidency. It would have illustrated that Democrats had figured out how to flip those suburban and affluent Republicans who aren’t crazy about the president.

Perhaps some of that will still play out during the midterms, because one race (or even four) doesn’t tell us everything we need to know. Every district is unique. Still, there are definitely ominous signs for Democrats….

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Are the tax cuts for the rich in the Senate Healthcare Bill in jeopardy?

Some in the Media and on the Democratic side have called the Senate Healthcare Bill proposal a tax cut bill in disguise….

We now have whispers of some GOP Senator’s thinking about dropping the cuts…

Several Senate Republicans began to question Wednesday whether their health-care bill should repeal a tax on high-income Americans imposed by Obamacare when the legislation would scale back subsidies for the poor.

Susan Collins of Maine and Mike Rounds of South Dakota both criticized the draft bill released by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for repealing a surtax on net investment income imposed under Obamacare.

Susan Collins

Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

“I do not see a justification for doing away with the 3.8 percent tax on investment income, because that is not something that increases the cost of health care,” Collins said. “So I distinguish between those tax increases that were part of Obamacare that increase premiums and the cost of health care versus those that do not.”

A third Republican, Bob Corker of Tennessee, expressed discomfort with the idea of cutting taxes on the rich while transferring burdens on the poor.

Scaling back the tax cuts could provide a path to winning over key moderate senators who have recoiled at the soaring premiums and deductibles for millions of low-income people as scored by the CBO, and the estimated 22 million fewer people who would have insurance in a decade. Meanwhile, conservatives have pushed to wipe out all of the taxes, though senators like Ted Cruz have not insisted every tax cut remain as part of an overall deal. Conservatives have been focused more on cutting regulations to lower premiums…..

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Democratic voters want to keep Pelosi…Poll

But 43% of ALL voters in the Politico/Morning Consult poll think she go….

She will have NO problem being re-elected next year….

Only about one-quarter of Democratic voters think House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) should be replaced, according to a new poll.

A Politico/Morning Consult poll finds just 27 percent of Democratic voters think Pelosi should be replaced, compared to 41 percent who think the Democratic leader should stay in her post.

Another 31 percent don’t have an opinion.

Forty-three percent of all voters think Pelosi should be replaced, pollsters found, compared with just 26 percent who think she should remain.

Pelosi’s favorability ratings are higher among Democrats in the new poll. Forty-nine percent of Democratic voters have a favorable view of Pelosi, compared with 25 percent who have an unfavorable opinion.

In all, just 31 percent of U.S. voters view Pelosi favorably and 46 percent view her unfavorably…..

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Where can Democrats win House seats?

Nate_Cohn over at the NY Times gives eight types of Republican House districts to watch….

Democrats have debated extensively over whether their path to power goes through the white-working-class Rust Belt states or the diverse, well-educated Sun Belt. In 2018, this debate is moot. The Democrats don’t have the luxury of choosing where to compete in House races. They’ll have to target all of these areas.

The problem for Democrats is simple: There just aren’t many great opportunities for them to pick up seats in Democratic-leaning areas. Instead, they’ll have to compete in a lot of districts where they’re competitive but not favored.

There are probably 70 or so districts where Democrats have a better than 10 percent chance to win if the national political environment is especially favorable to them. To retake the House, Democrats will try to put as many of these seats into play as possible, and hope to end up with the 24 they need.

To illustrate, we’ve divvied up Republican House districts into eight groups to keep an eye on. The groups aren’t strictly based on competitiveness: Within groups, some members are far more vulnerable than others. There are a few districts that don’t fit neatly into any of the groups, and there are a few that fit into several. But the kinds of opportunities and challenges facing Democrats or Republicans in each group are pretty similar…..

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Young Republicans fall to left of their elders on Immigration/Gay Rights…Poll

Would these same young Republicans be considered the ‘moderates’ of the Grand Ole Party that are NOT supposed to exist anymore?

According to the PRRI [ Public Religion Research Institute] poll, 64 percent of all Americans, regardless of political affiliation and age, believe that immigrants in the U.S. illegally should have a path to citizenship if certain conditions are met; only 16 percent say they should be deported. Among Republicans of all ages, support for a path to citizenship is lower, at 55 percent. But when only Republicans between the ages of 18 to 29 are accounted for, that number rises to 62 percent.

The election of President Donald Trump, who pledged to deport millions of immigrants living in the country illegally during the campaign, did not diminish the young Republicans’ hope for a new stance by the GOP….

The age gap among Republicans also surfaces on gay rights: 54 percent of Republicans between 18 and 29 believe that gay and lesbian couples should marry, while half as many Republicans older than 65 agree. Younger GOP supporters are more closely aligned with the majority of Americans than their older counterparts: Overall, 58 percent of Americans support gay marriage. However, they are far from the average among young people of all political leanings: 74 percent of them support gay marriage….

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Boston Mayor Race early poll….Walsh ahead by 31% Points….

Mayor Martin J. Walsh (left) and opponent Tito Jackson gathered signatures last month in Dudley Square.

JOHN CETRINO FOR THE BOSTON GLOBE/FILE

Mayor Martin J. Walsh (left) and opponent Tito Jackson gathered signatures last month in Dudley Square.

Mayor Martin J. Walsh holds a commanding 31-point lead over his closest rival, Councilor Tito Jackson, in a new Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll that shows just how hard it will be to derail Walsh’s reelection bid even as voters are unhappy with the city schools and the cost of housing, and are divided over the state of race relations.

With 14 weeks to go before the Sept. 26 preliminary contest, more than 60 percent of voters surveyed said they view Walsh favorably and approve of the job he is doing as mayor. While many respondents said they also view Jackson favorably, he remains a virtual unknown to almost half of the city’s voters.

Walsh would trounce Jackson if the preliminary contest were held today, 54 percent to 23 percent, with more than 18 percent of registered voters undecided, according to the poll. The incumbent, who is white, came out on top by wide margins in every voter segment, besting Jackson, who is African-American, and two lesser known mayoral competitors.

“The poll shows that even among black voters and Hispanic voters, Walsh is beating Tito Jackson among all categories, race, gender, age, geography,’’….

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Green Party Jill Stein…Post Trump Election Win…

Turns out Stein had a ‘meet and great’ with Putin , just like Mike Flynn….

Oh, those third and fourth national party people!…

Democrats ain’t happy…

Image result for jill stein

So does Stein, with the benefit of hindsight, have any regrets? “I don’t think so,” she tells me by phone from her home in Lexington, Massachusetts. Decrying “fake news,” citing the “sabotage of Bernie Sanders” and talking up the “tremendous” campaign she could have run with more money, Stein is projecting a Trump-worthy level of defiance. “I consider it a great honor that the party and our prior campaign for president is suddenly being attacked outside of an election season,” she says.

Those attacks aren’t merely sour grapes from a party still reeling from its stunning defeat in November. Some Democrats would like to see Stein hauled in front of Congress to explain mysteries like what, exactly, she was doing at a 2015 Moscow gala thrown by a Russian state-owned broadcaster—the same RT event that got Trump’s former national security adviser, Michael Flynn, in such trouble.

“We’re certainly interested in any efforts the Russians made to influence our election,” says California Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, which is investigating Russia’s alleged meddling in the election. “There have been public reports, I think, that Jill Stein was also in Russia attending the RT function, so we’re going to need to look at any efforts the Russians made through whatever means to influence our elections.”

Stein didn’t just attend the gala—dressed in a shimmering silver shawl, she sat at the same table as Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has barely disguised his glee at the political chaos that what he calls “patriotic” Russian hackers have unleashed in the United States. And she recorded a video from Moscow’s famous Red Square, in which she talked about “the need to rein in American exceptionalism” and replace “a U.S. policy based on domination”—words that sounded like they were ripped from Putin’s talking points.

Stein isn’t sorry about any of it. She says she’d welcome the opportunity to testify before Congress and dismisses the idea that she was a spoiler or that her campaign was co-opted as a tool of Russian influence as Democrats’ “pathetic excuses” for losing the election….

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image…time.com

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Trump’s Russian Connection isn’t an issue to most Americans…

While the media spends headlines about Trump & Co’s entanglements with the Russians?

Most Americans could care less….

Actually?

Trump could probably sit down in a bar with Putin and most Americans could STILL care less…

Democratic leaders have figured out in the loss of the last 5 special House elections that attacking Trump HIMSELF does virtually nothing…

Americans Democrats and Republicans KNOW their President doesn’t stick to the facts, they know he gets few things actually done…

But Trump political strength seems to be the he rants against the status quo that most of us feel in dealing with our everyday lives in a country of 300 million plus, that has a LOT of ways to get in our paychecks….

Democrats tend to talk about the ideology of helping those who need government help….Trump has money and continues to make money off BEING President….

Middle Class people and Rich ones LIKE that…

Remember all those stories we did here and out in the media about how the demographics of America was changing?

Well, they ARE….

Trump and Republican efforts to close the door on the changes won’t stop them…

And voters of the above classes won’t change things either….

 

Democrats will have to do things the ‘old fashion way’ as the commercial used to say…

‘They will have to EARN IT’…

That means reaching for the hearts and minds of the Middle Class voters that left Hillary Clinton last year, and had started leaving Barack Obama 8 years ago…

And THAT means the economy and yea….’feel your pain’ stuff for people who actually vote…Not just have the time to protest…

“We can’t just talk about Russia because people back in Ohio aren’t really talking that much about Russia, about Putin, about Michael Flynn,” Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) told MSNBC Thursday. “They’re trying to figure out how they’re going to make the mortgage payment, how they’re going to pay for their kids to go to college, what their energy bill looks like.

“And if we don’t talk more about their interest than we do about how we’re so angry with Donald Trump and everything that’s going on,” he added, “then we’re never going to be able to win elections.”

Ryan is among the small group of Democrats who are sounding calls for a changing of the guard atop the party’s leadership hierarchy following Tuesday’s special election defeat in Georgia — the Democrats’ fourth loss since Trump took office. But Ryan is hardly alone in urging party leaders to hone their 2018 message.

Rep. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) has been paying particularly close attention to voters’ concerns because he’s running for governor in 2018. The Russia-Trump investigation, he said, isn’t on their radar.

“I did a 22-county tour. … Nobody’s focusing on that,” Walz said. “That’s not to say that they don’t think Russia and those things are important, [but] it’s certainly not top on their minds.”

Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) delivered a similar message, saying his constituents are most concerned with two things: dysfunction in Washington and the Republicans’ plans to repeal ObamaCare. The controversies surrounding Trump, he said, don’t tally.

“We should be focused relentlessly on economic improvement [and] we should stay away from just piling on the criticism of Trump, whether it’s about Russia, whether it’s about Comey. Because that has its own independent dynamic, it’s going to happen on its own without us piling on,“ Welch said. …

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That also means that the party does NOT go running to the left on everything….

In the end?

Donald Trump is either gonna tweet himself out of a job?

Or….

Robert Mueller will pull the legs out from under him so that his party members in Congress abandon him…

But the Russian brake is coming from his OWN party members and Mueller with help from the Intelligence Community that he dissed without realizing that THEY where watching ALL the things he and buddies had be hiding from the public….

Payback, eh?

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Democrat leads in Virginia Governor’s race….

Former GOP National Party head Ed Gillespie has a hill top climb that Democratic Lt. Governor Northam is on top of….

As in in other races recently?

Donald Trump isn’t popular….

But?

That has NOT stop Republicans from coming out to vote in recent Special House elections this year…

Democrat Ralph Northam begins the general-election phase of Virginia’s governor’s race with an 8-point lead over Republican Ed Gillespie, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday.

Northam, the current lieutenant governor, held a 47 percent to 39 percent lead over Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman, in the first independent polling conducted after last week’s gubernatorial primaries.

The poll found Northam with strong leads among women and minorities, with Gillespie drawing more support from white voters. Independent voters were evenly divided between the two, with 40 percent backing Gillespie and 38 percent supporting Northam.

“Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam begins the general election as the favorite to become the Old Dominion’s next governor. But not an overwhelming one,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a news release.

The poll also showed the extent to which President Donald Trump could be a drag on Virginia Republicans in the closely watched election, one of only two governor’s races in 2017, along with New Jersey’s….

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Charlie Cook’s people say Democrats STILL are in a good place for 2018 House Midterms…

Their view?

Democrats lose House races in GOP districts where there is a LOT of media attention that motivates the REPUBLICAN base….

In quiet races in GOP territory ?

Democrats do better….

And….

On the whole?

Democrats ARE actually over performing in House races in GOP districts….

They just need the Media to leave them alone while they work harder with better candidates…

If Democrats were to outperform their “generic” share by eight points across the board in November 2018, they would pick up 80 seats. Of course, that won’t happen because Republican incumbents will be tougher to dislodge than special election nominees. But these results fit a pattern that should still worry GOP incumbents everywhere, regardless of Trump’s national approval rating and the outcome of the healthcare debate in Congress.

Put another way, Democratic candidates in these elections have won an average of 68 percent of the votes Hillary Clinton won in their districts, while Republican candidates have won an average of 54 percent of Trump’s votes. That’s an enthusiasm gap that big enough to gravely imperil the Republican majority next November—even if it didn’t show up in “the special election to end all special elections.”……

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Will Democrats turn from Trump to Economics?

The loss of Jon Ossoff in the GA-06 and the continuing losing batting average for Democrats in Special House Elections has seemed to FINALLY woken up Democrats to the idea that running against Donald Trump isn’t gonna be enough if they want to start winning House races that will help them regain the majority in that legislative body….

Democrats are also back to questioning the leadership of Nancy Pelosi who raises a TON of money for her party members , but has lost the Speaker of the House spot and has presided over Democrats losing House races even in longtime Democratic districts…

Again?

Progressive and Left leaning policy will NOT work in getting the Democrats wins in the 20+ House races they need to take back from the Republicans….Democrats need to find a way to get ‘swing’ voters to cast their ballots for them…Not the Republicans…

“We need to show working men and women we understand their anxieties and fears,” she [ Representative Debbie Dingell of Michigan] said, “and show that Trump is treating them like just another politician.”

By fiercely contesting a congressional race in the conservative Atlanta suburbs, Democrats had hoped to make an emphatic statement about the weakness of the Republican Party under Mr. Trump. Their candidate, Jon Ossoff, raised about $25 million, mostly in small donations, and assertively courted right-of-center voters with promises of economic development and fiscal restraint.

That vague message, Democrats said Wednesday, was plainly not powerful enough to counter an onslaught of Republican advertising that cast Mr. Ossoff as a puppet of liberal national Democrats, led by Ms. Pelosi, an intensely unpopular figure on the right and a longstanding target of Republican attacks. While Mr. Ossoff made inroads by exploiting Mr. Trump’s unpopularity and a backlash against health care legislation approved in the House, Democrats said they would have to do more to actually win.

Representative Eric Swalwell of California, who is close to party leaders, said Democrats would “crystallize our message on jobs, on health care” in the coming months. The results in Georgia and other special elections, he said, should encourage Democrats to campaign across a huge map of districts. “We need to compete everywhere,” he said.

Representative Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, met Wednesday morning with a group of lawmakers who have been conferring about economic messaging, according to several people present who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Mr. Luján told the group that his committee would examine the Georgia results for lessons, but he urged the lawmakers to portray the race in positive terms in their public comments, stressing that Democrats have consistently exceeded their historical performance in a series of special elections fought in solidly Republican territory.

It was in the meeting with Mr. Luján that Mr. Cárdenas, a member of the Democratic leadership, brought up Ms. Pelosi’s role in the Georgia race, calling it “the elephant in the room.” Ms. Pelosi was not present.

Mr. Ossoff’s supporters showed their dismay after results came in showing Karen Handel in the lead at a viewing party at the Westin Atlanta Perimeter North, on Tuesday night.CreditKevin D. Liles for The New York Times

A spokeswoman for Mr. Cárdenas, while acknowledging his comment, said he had invoked the leader in the context of “what can be done to stand up to those attacks in the future.”

Ms. Pelosi has consistently rejected calls to step down, and there was little indication that her leadership post was at risk. She responded to the election results in a “Dear Colleague” letter to Democratic lawmakers late Wednesday, underscoring the party’s improving performance in conservative areas and saying that “every effort was made to win” in Georgia.

But Ms. Pelosi also said it was time for Democrats to “put forth our message,” and promised an economic one that “we can all embrace and utilize in our districts.”….

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…twitter…

South Carolina source texted me last night: “People might not love Trump, but they really don’t like taxes.” Seems a good thing to remember.

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