Category Archives: Polls

Hillary Clinton had a misdirected Ad campaign…

Hillary Clinton took in One Billion dollars….

Donald Trump half of that….

With all that money  Hillary Clinton got more votes by several million….

But she missed something even with AL:L that money….

POLICY…..

Hillary Clinton went after Trump, the person….

Trump went after policy much more than Clinton….

In a study by  Wesleyan Media Project…..

Evidence suggests that negativity in advertising can have a backlash effect on the sponsor (Pinkleton 1997) and that personally-focused, trait-based negative messages (especially those that are uncivil) tend to be seen as less fair, less informative and less important than more substantive, policy-based messaging (Fridkin and Geer 1994; Brooks and Geer 2007).

In stark contrast to any prior presidential cycle for which we have Kantar Media/CMAG data, the Clinton campaign overwhelmingly chose to focus on Trump’s personality and fitness for office (in a sense, doubling down on the news media’s focus), leaving very little room for discussion in advertising of the reasons why Clinton herself was the better choice.

Trump, on the other hand, provided explicit policy-based contrasts, highlighting his strengths and Clinton’s weaknesses, a strategy that research suggests voters find helpful in decision-making. These strategic differences may have meant that Clinton was more prone to voter backlash and did nothing to overcome the media’s lack of focus on Clinton’s policy knowledge, especially for residents of Michigan and Wisconsin, in particular, who were receiving policy-based (and specifically economically-focused) messaging from Trump….

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Most American’s want to KEEP Obamacare…Poll

Against these feelings House Republicans and Trump are trying to force a vote of a Repeal/Replace bill that lackas support from Democrats  AND Conservative Republicans…

A national Monmouth University Poll conducted right before Congressional Republicans unveiled their health care plan this week found that 1-in-3 Americans believe any such reform would drive up their costs compared with 1-in-5 who anticipate their costs going down. Most Americans prefer to keep the Affordable Care Act in place with improvements, while still retaining the ACA’s individual mandate. The bottom line for most Americans will be how any changes to the ACA will impact their own health care costs.

Before House Republicans revealed their new health care legislation, most Americans (51%) said they would prefer to keep the Affordable Care Act and work to improve it, with another 7% saying they want to keep the ACA entirely intact. Just 4-in-10 want to see the ACA repealed, either with a replacement put in place (31%) or repealed entirely without a replacement (8%). The poll finds majority support for retaining the ACA regardless of how individuals get health care coverage – such as through an employer (57% prefer to keep the law), a privately purchased plan (55%), or publicly funded coverage (63%).

There may be a pitched battle over the Republican plan since it is not clear how similar or different it may be from the ACA. Two-thirds (66%) of those who want to repeal Barack Obama’s signature policy say it is very important to them that Congress follow through on this GOP promise. On the other hand, a similar 60% of those who want to keep the law say it is very important to them that the ACA remains basically intact.

Before details of the GOP plan emerged, one-third (33%) of the public suspected that a repeal and replace effort would cause their own health care costs to go up, 20% expected their costs would go down, and 38% expected no change to their costs…..

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House Republicans roll out their Obamacare Repeal/Replace plan….

This is the first salvo in the fight over President Obama’s legacy healthcare program…

Republicans have been after the program since it’s birth, but now polling shows that Americans have become worried about a possible loss of healthcare coverage…..

There have been a growing number of protests across the country against cuts to the program…They will get LOUDER….

House Republicans on Monday unveiled their long-awaited plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, scrapping the mandate for most Americans to have health insurance in favor of a new system of tax credits to induce people to buy insurance on the open market.

The bill sets the stage for a bitter debate over the possible dismantling of the most significant health care law in a half-century. In its place would be a health law that would be far more oriented to the free market and would make far-reaching changes to a vast part of the American economy.

The House Republican bill would roll back the expansion of Medicaid that has provided coverage to more than 10 million people in 31 states, effective in January 2020. The bill would effectively scrap the Affordable Care Act’s unpopular “individual mandate,” eliminating tax penalties for people who go without health insurance. The requirement for larger employers to offer coverage to their full-time employees would also be eliminated.

People who let their insurance coverage lapse, however, would face a significant penalty: Insurers could increase their premiums by 30 percent. In that sense, Republicans would replace a penalty for not having insurance with a new penalty for allowing insurance to lapse.

The bill would also cut off federal funds to Planned Parenthood clinics through Medicaid and other government programs for one year. House Republican leaders intend to keep three of the Affordable Care Act’s most popular provisions: the prohibition on barring insurance for pre-existing conditions or imposing lifetime coverage caps, and the rule allowing young people to remain on their parents’ health plans until age 26.

But Republicans hope to undo major parts of President Barack Obama’s signature domestic achievement, including income-based tax credits that help millions of Americans buy insurance, taxes on people with high incomes and the penalty for people who do not have health coverage.

Medicaid recipients’ open-ended entitlement to health care would be replaced by a per-person allotment to the states. And people with  would face new uncertainties in a more deregulated insurance market.

“Obamacare is a sinking ship, and the legislation introduced today will rescue people from the mistakes of the past,” said Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the majority leader.

Democrats denounced the effort as a cruel attempt to strip Americans of their health care….

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A REAL look at the Undoucumented….

Then NY Times does an in-depth look at those more than 11 million people who are in the United State’s without documentation….

The look at the countries they are from , which isn’t just Mexico , although the majority are….The countries listed are Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras , China, India , Korea and more…

The piece points out about 60% of those here have been in this country for over a decade and many have American born children…

Yes, every year hundreds of thousand of undocumented people commit crimes and ARE deported…But that group is thought to be about 3% of the total here…

The piece also touches on the fact that a good number of documented visitors to this country simply have their stays go over their time they are supposed to leave due to the fact that have settled down with roots in America…

Hearings for some people are backlogged several years…

The chances of Congress seating down and legislating some sort of forward thinks immigration reform law is remote….

So the problem for people and the government continues…

In the public’s mind, the undocumented — the people living here without permission from the American government — are Hispanic, mostly Mexican and crossed the southwestern border in secret.

In the eyes of their advocates, they are families and workers, taking the jobs nobody else wants, staying out of trouble, here only to earn their way to better, safer lives for themselves and their children.

At the White House, they are pariahs, criminals who menace American neighborhoods, take American jobs, sap American resources and exploit American generosity: They are people who should be, and will be, expelled.

Illegal immigrants can be many of these things, and more. Eleven million allows for considerable range, crosshatched with contradictions.

There may be no more powerful symbol of how fixedly Americans associate illegal immigration with Mexico than the wall President Trump has proposed building along the southern border. But many of the unauthorized are not Mexican; almost a quarter are not even Hispanic…..

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Majority of American now favor a Special Prosecutor to sort the Trump/Russian mess…Poll

Donald Trump is losing one this steady drip…Drip…DRIP Russian  thing….

And it’s costing him, his Admin, Congress  and his party……

Despite claims from the White House that no such ties exist, 65 percent of respondents to a new CNN/ORC poll released Monday morning said the investigation into connections between President Donald Trump and the Russian government should be handled by a special prosecutor.

The Trump administration and congressional Republicans have thus far been resistant to the appointment of a special prosecutor even after Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced last week that he would recuse himself from all Justice Department investigations into alleged Trump-Russia ties during last year’s presidential campaign. That announcement followed reports that Sessions had met multiple times with Russia’s ambassador to the U.S. during the presidential race, a period during which Russia was engaged in a campaign of cyberattacks intended to aid Trump’s candidacy.

Even with the ongoing controversy surrounding ties between Trump and Russia, the president’s approval rating remained statistically unmoved, climbing a single point — from 44 percent to 45 percent – since January’s CNN/ORC poll. Trump’s well-received address to a joint session of Congress, delivered before the CNN/ORC poll was put into the field, did not appear to boost the president’s poll numbers.

On the question of how the investigation should be handled, 82 percent of Democrats, 67 percent of independents and 43 percent of Republicans polled said it should be conducted by a special prosecutor….

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Trump goes back to running against Obama…

During last years campaign Donald Trump ran against President Obama….

Obama wasn’t born in America…

Obama a Muslim….

All playing to the under the table ‘race card’….

While Trump did spend time with the outgoing President and had him around for the swearing in?

Image result for trump/obama

He’s gonna back to dissing Obama…

The new thing is Obama is setting up a shadow government?

Huh?

Yea….The new thing is Obama and his liberal friends are the force behind the Resistance protests around the country….

Well?

Trump’s gotta blame somebody right?…It couldn’t be that a MAJORITY of Americans don’t like him and his policies?….

That protests against President Donald Trump that began just days after his upset electoral victory in November shouldn’t have been too surprising to right-wing media outlets, given Trump’s historically divisive rise to the presidency. Still, many leaned on an update to a well-worn conspiracy in order to delegitimize the protesters: that billionaire activist George Soros and his liberal friends wanted total control of the United States, and former President Barack Obama had joined the effort in order to create a “shadow government.”

President Donald Trump was asked about such an effort in an interview that aired Tuesday.

“Can we talk about President Obama?” Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade asked Trump. “It turns out his organization seems to be doing a lot of the organizing [for] some of the protests that a lot of these Republicans are seeing around the country, and against you. Do you believe President Obama is behind it? And if he is, is that a violation of the so-called unsaid President’s code?”

“I think that President Obama is behind it,” Trump said. “Because his people are certainly behind it.”….

“He’s setting up almost an insurgency,” he continued. “He’s picking people in foreign affairs, labor, abortion, union matters. He’s setting it up to start appearing on television, making speeches, doing op-ed pieces. For the next four years, you’re going to see not only the Trump administration, but you’re going to see a shadow government opposing a Trump administration.”….

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Note….

Donald Trump is NEVER gonna get over the thing that Obama and Clinton BOTH are more popular than him….

image…bgr.com

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Most Republicans trust Donald Trump more than Paul Ryan. Young Republicans don’t.

Young Republicans could be bringing the word ‘moderate’ back to their party……

And that would because of the parties adopted leader….Donald Trump….The guy who WAS a Democrat once or maybe even twice….Has been taking cue’s from some the hard rightwingnuts happy to be in power….( Ryan isn’t much of a moderate in my mind )

And that makes them nervous….

This finding is in line with a broader trend. While Trump has aligned his political platform with certain far-right factions of the Republicans Party, recent research shows that young Republicans are actually more to the left than the rest of their party on almost every issue. That means Trump’s often radical and vague rhetoric may not resonate as deeply with this group — and that the Republicans Party could see a shift in platform down the line.

Young Republicans have always been more skeptical of Trump
Young voters’ skepticism toward Trump is not surprising.

Polling throughout the campaign showed Trump was by far the least favored candidate among young voters. On Election Day, exit polling showed Trump received roughly 37 percent of the youth vote — consistent with Mitt Romney’s performance in 2012.

While this breakdown is in large part because younger voters are overwhelmingly aligned with the Democratic Party — a 2016 survey by Harvard’s Institute of Politics found 61 percent of millennial voters prefer a Democrat in the White House — there has also been an ideological shift among young Republicans to the left relative to their own party. And they defy most signifiers of a typical Trump voter.

“They are less xenophobic, less anti-immigrant, and less white and better educated than their Republican elders,” says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist with the University of California San Diego who has researched political polarization among young voters. “They may prefer House Republicans faute de mieux” (for want of a better alternative), he says.

Overall, young Republicans are far more likely to identify as moderates….

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Trump blames Obama for Resistance protests…

US President Barack Obama laughs as he arrives to hand out treats to children trick-or-treating for Halloween on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, October 30, 2015. AFP PHOTO / SAUL LOEB / AFP / SAUL LOEB        (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

Popular vote loser Donald Trump led up to his big speech to Congress with an interview on Fox and Friends, and offered his own personal explanations for why things are going so poorly. It’s not that he’s doing a bad job, see, it’s just a messaging problem and also a problem of Barack Obama secretly working against him.

In fact, according to Trump, Trump is doing a great job:

“In terms of messaging, I would give myself a C or a C plus,” Trump said in an interview with “Fox and Friends.” “In terms of achievement, I think I’d give myself an A.  Because I think I’ve done great things, but I don’t think I have — I and my people, I don’t think we’ve explained it well enough to the American public.”

Wait a second. I thought he was this great communicator, so good at branding that if he’s not careful he’ll give his opponents an edge. But now the whole problem he’s having is because of poor messaging skills? Hmmm. Maybe the problem is that your message has been accurate and people don’t like it.

But no, Trump’s view of the widespread protests is that there’s a powerful force working against him:

“I think that President Obama is behind it because his people certainly are behind it,” Trump said. “In terms of him being behind things, that’s politics. It will probably continue.”

Boy, that Obama sure is a hell of an organizer—he was on vacation when Trump signed his Muslim ban but was somehow still able to turn out tens of thousands of people to show up at airports across the country in protest.

Donald, Donald, Donald. It’s not a messaging problem, it’s not about a popular former president working behind the scenes to oppose you. America is just not that into you…..

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Political Roundup for February 28th, 2017…Most Americans find politics stressful these days…RRH Elections

President & Miscellaneous

The Donald’s Budget: Many people are saying that Congressional Republicans don’t find 45’s Dick Gephardt ’00-inspired budget tremenous. Sad!

Need another reason to drink?: According to a new Reuters poll, most Americans find politics stressful these days. In other news, water is wet.

POTUS Favorability: In news that must be fake, young voters would fire The Donald—if given the chance. According to Reuters, most Americans aged 13-17 disapprove of POTUS (surprise!) and are just as disillusioned with politics as their older counterparts. They are, however, slightly more optimistic about the future than is the first generation to leave its children worse off than it itself was left.

Commerce Secretary: Billionaire Wilbur Ross was confirmed yesterday as Secretary of Commerce by a 72-27 margin.

TX-Voter ID: As expected, the DOJ has reversed its stance on Texas’ voter ID law. But, let’s be real: would such a law even be necessary with our inevitable Big Beautiful Wall?

Trump v. the Media: The New York Times claims that Donald Trump has “evil intentions.” But, seriously, did that stop the paper from publishing plenty of attention-seeking Trump headlines before his political days to boost its readership? The Donald was still The Donald then—just as much as he is now.

The Almighty Dollar: The dollar has held steady as of late, apparently due to POTUS’ current lack of specifics on fiscal and tax policy….

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McConnell and Ryan set to push Obamacare plan and see what other party members do?

I told ya so….

THIS is how FUCKED UP the things are gonna be for Republicans in Congress….

Their leadership is under pressure to do SOMETHING on their promises to Repeal Obamacare…and they are stuck….

Image result for Trump/ryan/mcConnell

image….cbsnews.com

Resistance protests are all over Republican home town hall’s….

Obamacare approval numbers are approaching 50%….

And the adopted head of their party wants EVERYBODY covered….

SO?

It look s like [ Wall Street Journal wise] House Speaker Ryan and Senate Majority Leader McConnell are just gonna drop anything on their members and let THEM figure something out?

Mr. Trump, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) are staking almost everything on this bet, because their entire domestic policy agenda, including a highly prized tax overhaul, rests on the health-care maneuver paying off first…

The plan could be torpedoed by everything from Republican divisions to public backlash to Democratic resistance. House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California said on ABC’s This Week on Sunday morning that she didn’t believe Republicans would be able to follow through with their repeal bid.

“They won’t be able to do that,” she said. “How can they do it? They do not have the votes.”

‘In the 25 years that I served in the United States Congress, Republicans never, ever, one time agreed on what a health-care proposal should look like.’
—Former House Speaker John Boehner

Republican leaders see little alternative but to try, especially since they are already facing criticism for failing to move faster. Some conservative advocacy groups, such as Heritage Action, have said swifter movement could have forestalled the town hall meetings and the polls showing increased support for the ACA that are now rattling some centrist Republicans.

The town halls have also invigorated some conservative lawmakers, who are eager for the fight. “Not everyone is going to get what they want,” said Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R., Tenn.). “I’ve been telling people back home if they don’t see major movement on this by Easter, there’ll be reason to be concerned.”

Republicans still have to overcome significant divisions on central issues….

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Did Trump grow the Republican party?

Politico does NOT think so….

During his triumphant return to the stage at the Conservative Political Action Conference, President Trump — a onetime curiosity who now dictates the direction the wind blows — made an unexpected and erroneous aside. Well, he made lots of those, but this one in particular was interesting.

“You know, we haven’t been as a group given credit for this, but look at how much bigger our party has gotten during this cycle,” he said. “During the early days when we had 17 people running, the primaries, millions and millions of people were joining. I won’t say it was because of me, but it was. And we have an amazing, strong, powerful party.”

Trump’s speeches often have a skipping-record quality, where he’ll keep rehashing applause lines even well after they make any sense. He regularly bashes Hillary Clinton, for example, as though he still has her looming as an opponent on the horizon. This claim about the Republican Party is a skip, too; he has been saying it for a while.

It started before the primaries. The 2016 election saw a legitimately big surge in turnout among Republican voters, as indicated in data from the U.S. Election Atlas.

But millions more Republican primary voters is not the same as millions more Republicans. Politico looked at who was turning out in the primaries and found that the new voters were heavily people who didn’t usually vote in primaries but did in the general. In other words, Trump was ginning up interest in primary voting, not in the Republican Party.

What’s more, Trump was likely inspiring people to come out and vote both for and against him. He ended up getting less than half of the votes cast in the primary — and more people cast votes for someone other than the eventual nominee than in any other cycle in history….

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Trump vs The Media?….Media winning so far…Poll

Donald Trump doesn’t like any Media stuff that isn’t nice’ to him….

He’s gone so far as use the word ‘fake’ news to label anything that isn’t complimentary to him….

He doesn’t answer questions from reporters from the major national news outlets mostly either….

It’s NOT played well with the American public which has its own problems with the media , BUT?……

Which SUPPORTS  a ‘free press’ and one that DOES ask HARD questions….

It’s pretty clear what President Trump is doing by going after the media. He sees someone who is tough on him, with a lower approval rating, and he sets up a contrast. It’s like making yourself look taller by standing next to a short person.

“You have a lower approval rate than Congress,” he needled reporters at last week’s news conference, making clear he had done the math.

Except maybe it’s not really working.

A new poll from Quinnipiac University suggests that while people may be broadly unhappy with the mainstream media, they still think it’s more credible than Trump. The president regularly accuses the press of “fake news,” but people see more “fake news” coming out of his own mouth.

The poll asked who registered voters “trust more to tell you the truth about important issues.” A majority — 52 percent — picked the media. Just 37 percent picked Trump.

The poll did find that registered voters by a narrow margin think the media has treated Trump unfairly, with 50 percent saying they disapproved of the coverage of Trump and 45 percent approving. But voters are even more critical of Trump’s treatment of the media, with 61 percent disapproving and 35 percent approving.

Even 23 percent of Republicans say Trump is mistreating the media, and independents disapprove 59-35….

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Political Roundup for February 23, 2017…Who’s gonna win the DNC race?…RRH Elections

Presidential/National

CPAC:  The Trumpification of the Republican Party will be on display at CPAC this weekend. What used to be a conservative event that was hijacked by the Ron Paul Revolution is undergoing a Trumpification as well.  After the Milo fiasco, we should all be wondering why this sad event is even continuing.

2018:  Democrats are feeling urgency to make gains in 2018 or potentially face another decade without congressional or state legislative power.  If they cannot make a move in 2018, they don’t deserve to ever have power again.

Twitter:  Many of us have wondered what kind of control does the Trump clan hold over the President’s twitter usage.  Apparently, Trump’s twitter rage and love are dictated by what he sees on television.

DNC:  The Hill has a breakdown of the DNC race and thinks Representative Keith Ellison (D-NOI / OGGoldy goes Republican) has the edge, but RRH commentary from yesterday seems to doubt these numbers…

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Republican push just for Repeal of Obamacare is almost gone…

Strike while the iron is hot?

On the Affordable Healthcare Law/Obamacare?

That iron is cooling and probably cold….

Between the mounting protests in the streets and at town halls….

Along with polling showing that more American’s are worried about losing their coverage?

The chances of an outright repeal of the program is just about gone….

Rightwingnuts still walkabout an immediate junking of the program…But NOBODY except them are for that anymore…

Repeal and Replace has been the call from the new President….

But any senario proposed on that will wait until next year or 2019 AFTER the midterm elections….

We’ve pointed this out before here….

The Affordable Healthcare program’s worst problem is it’s nickname….

As President Obama tried to do…

The program needs adjustments…

They ARE coming….

Probably another name….

But in the end….

That’s about all….

Ever since Republicans got down to the business of repealing the Affordable Care Act, the Senate has been singled out as the likely problem. Any plan that could zoom through the House would hit roadblocks among Senate Republicans, many of whom have resisted a wholesale repeal of the health law without a robust replacement plan.

But after weeks of loud protests, boisterous town hall meetings and scores of quieter meetings with health care professionals, patients, caregivers and hospital managers in their districts, it is becoming increasingly likely that a consensus in the House may be just as hard to reach.

The most conservative House members are pushing for a fast repeal of the health law with only a bare-bones replacement to follow, possibly just bigger incentives for people to open health savings accounts to fund their own health needs. Other Republicans are more interested in taking their time to come up with a replacement plan that, as of now, they have failed to cobble together beyond a menu of options….

“For the first time Republicans need to demonstrate what they are for and not just being against Obamacare,” said Doug Heye, who served as the deputy chief of staff to former Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia when he was majority leader. Mr. Cantor and House Republican chairmen labored in 2014 to bring a replacement bill for Republicans to get behind, Mr. Heye said, and got nowhere, even with no stakes.

“Republicans are going to come back to Washington next week and say what they’ve heard on the ground, at hospitals, at restaurants, at events where people have been concerned about where they go from here,” he said. “How much that shapes things over the next months remains to be seen.”

Further, recent polls show increasing enthusiasm for the health law as Americans see its repeal on the horizon…

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Joe Piscopo for Jersey Governor…Really….

As a Trump supporting Republican….

Image result for joe piscopo

Mr. Piscopo, 65, still managed to draw giggles from the $50,000-a-table crowd at the gala to help bring pandas to New York City. But his self-discipline is part of an effort to project a more sober image as he weighs his next move: trading in his Sinatra for a run for governor of his home state, New Jersey.

“I’m very serious about it,” he said. “I’ve never been more serious about anything in my life.”

While the daily whiplash out of Washington commands almost all the political attention, New Jersey is one of two states that will elect a new governor this year, as the eight-year reign of Gov. Chris Christie, once a national darling and now with historically low approval in his home state, comes to an end. And Mr. Piscopo is hoping to parlay his Jersey credentials and rising political profile — he campaigned for President Trump, and his radio show focuses on conservative politics — into a long-shot bid for governor as either a Republican or an independent in a state where Democratic voters vastly outnumber Republicans.

A recent poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University found that the category of “someone else” was within the margin of sampling error of equaling Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, the current leading Republican. Mr. Piscopo, who has not made an official announcement, trailed Ms. Guadagno and “someone else.”….

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image…6ABC.com

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FiveThirtyEight on Trump polls variances…

They are quite diffrent from different outfits….

But they are the lowest for any starting President in modern times…

Nate Silver: “Here’s what we can say for sure: It’s unprecedented for a president to face so much opposition from the electorate so soon. Recent polls show that anywhere between 43 and 56 percent of Americans disapprove of President Trump’s job performance. Even if you take the low end of that range, Trump’s numbers are much worse than any past president a month into his term.”

“But beyond that, there’s a lot of seeming disagreement in the polls about exactly how unpopular Trump is — and even whether his disapproval rating exceeds his approval rating at all.”

“What’s the real story? The differences between the polls aren’t random, or at least they don’t appear to be based on the relatively limited amount of data we have so far. Instead, Trump’s approval ratings are systematically higher in polls of voters — either registered voters or likely voters — than they are in polls of all adults. And they’re systematically higher in polls conducted online or by automated script than they are in polls conducted by live-telephone interviewers.”

Politicalwire….

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