Category Archives: Polls

Ralph Northam win’s the Virginia Governors race.

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Northam lead in the polls all along…

But pundits injected a feeling of uncertainty when a few right leaning polls showed Republican challenger ex-RNC head Ed Gillespie ahead….

In addition?

Donald Trump people wanted Gillespie to embrace Trump, but he wouldn’t….But other Republicans DID and went very Negative..

Northam ALSO did not go hard against Trump….

And in the end?

The Democrats also worked very hard…..Harder than Republicans…

But something about Donald Trump isn’t helpful for his adopted parties candidates and Trump doesn’t ever stay quiet for long…..

And remember Robert Mueller is just warming up….

Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) won the Virginia governor’s race in a blowout Tuesday, fending off a potential gut punch for his party and giving Democrats a badly needed jolt of momentum ahead of the 2018 midterms.

Democrats had grown nervous about the race, fearing a devastating loss that could deal a blow to the party’s momentum. But that anxiety gave way to rejoicing as Northam cruised to victory and Democrats took the New Jersey governor’s mansion and posted gains in the Virginia House of Delegates.

Northam defeated Republican Ed Gillespie in the race to succeed Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), in what has become the only competitive statewide race of the year. Northam’s win gives Democrats their first major victory since President Trump took office after a string of high-profile special election defeats in GOP districts earlier this year.

Northam exceeded expectations in the race, building up huge vote leads in Democratic areas while competing well against Gillespie in Republican ones….

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Note….

Northam is NOT a left leaning Democrat….

Progressives will NOT be the future of the Democrats if they want to win next year….

The Democrats also appear to have  won control of the Virginia Legislative body also…

…twitter…

image….wjla.com

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Election Day 2017….

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It’s the voters turn today….

Not the pundits….

Not the polls….

The national media will define the results in turns of Donald Trump….

But for most voters it won’t be that at all…

All politics is local….

And it will be the emotional tag a particular candidate drops on the person doing their ballot receives…

Of course the BIG WILLY race is the Virginia Governors race which has turn to nasty shrill in the final days…

But there are other races around the country….

The New Jersey Governor’s race and tons of other state and local races out there….

Democrats hope to start to make gains they can build on to add to their chances in next years midterms….They also hope to look ahead on the state and local level where they suffered the last few elections….

Republicans will try to hold on to their narrow, but strong voter base….

We’ll see the results later today….

Update from Daily Kos with a graphic of most of todays elections results….HERE

Good news for Democrats

image…NY Times.Com

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Donald Trump keeps dropping in the overall national polling….

64% of those polled support the Mueller investigation…..

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has hit a new low, coming in at 36 percent in the latest findings released by CNN on Monday.

According to the survey, 58 percent of adults disapprove of the way the president is handling his job, with 48 percent registering strong disapproval.

The results were published a day after an ABC News/Washington Poll showed a similar approval rating: 37 percent. When factoring in the margin of sampling error, the two surveys show a historic low for a president at this point in his tenure in the modern era of polling.

The CNN findings, which were gathered several days after it was revealed that three former Trump campaign officials had been indicted by special counsel Robert Mueller as a part of his investigation into Russian meddling in last year’s election, demonstrate growing wariness about reported contacts between campaign officials and foreign operatives…..

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Analysis of 2016 Democratic loss…The loss of Obama’s Black, Brown, Yellow AND White voter’s….

Another look at the voting patterns of last years Presidential election with the question of what went wron for the Democrats….

How can the party get a win 3 years from now?

This from the Center for American Progress.

The unprecedented and largely unanticipated election of Republican candidate Donald Trump as president of the United States in 2016 set off intense debates about how his victory was achieved and which factors mattered most in determining the outcome. Although Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won a plurality of the national popular vote—48.2 percent—with a nearly 3-million vote margin, Donald Trump carried 30 states and won the Electoral College vote by a 304-to-227 margin.1

What happened to produce these results?…

The findings from these data and simulations suggest that many of the existing intra-Democratic Party debates about the path forward have missed the mark. Rather than deciding whether to focus on (1) increasing turnout and mobilization of communities of color, a key component of the Democratic base, or (2) renewing efforts to persuade and win back some segment of white non-college-educated voters and to increase inroads among the white college-educated population, Democrats would clearly benefit from pursuing a political strategy capable of doing both.

Increasing the turnout of voters of color to Obama-level numbers, particularly among African Americans, would have turned the election narrowly in the Democrats’ favor. If black turnout and support rates in 2016 had matched 2012 levels, Democrats would have held Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and flipped North Carolina, for a 323 to 215 Electoral College victory. So increasing engagement, mobilization, and representation of people of color must remain an important and sustained goal of Democrats. They cannot expect to win and expand their representation in other offices without the full engagement and participation of voters who are black, Latino, and Asian American or other race.

At the same time, the Democrats would have made even larger gains in most states if they had successfully held President Obama’s 2012 margin among white voters without a college degree, regardless of turnout. Under this scenario, Democrats would have held Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin for a 314 to 224 Electoral College victory. Given the fact that the white non-college-educated voting population is almost four times larger as a share of the electorate than is the black voting population, it is critical for Democrats to attract more support from the white non-college-educated voting bloc—even just reducing the deficit to something more manageable, as Obama did in 2008 and 2012.

Finally, because Hillary Clinton actually improved upon Barack Obama’s 2012 vote margin among white voters with a college degree, carrying them by a solid margin, it behooves Democrats to continue reaching out to this large bloc of voters, many of whom did not vote for Donald Trump and many of whom do not like the direction of his current presidency…..

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The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018…Roll Call

Democrats will have the heavy lift a year from now ….

Senate Democrats are defending 10 seats President Donald Trump won last cycle. But a year out from Election Day, the most vulnerable senator is the lone Republican facing re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton.The overall Senate landscape has improved for Democrats since the beginning of the year, with Republican retirements opening up two seats in 2018. But this ranking only features incumbents.

More GOP primaries could develop, but besides Nevada’s Dean Heller, the other nine most vulnerable senators are all Democrats.

Many of them have strong personal brands in their states, or even have a working relationship with the president. Meanwhile, Republicans have struggled to land top recruits or are locked in ugly primaries. But given the political bent of these states — which Trump won by anywhere from 42 points to 1 point — Democrats still have a challenging road ahead….

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Really?…Can a Democrat win the Alabama Special US Senate race?

Probably NOT….

But The WashPost is running a dream wish piece today trying to seel the notion that Democrat Doug Jones has a prayer of upsetting Roy Moore, who is controversial to say the least ….

Remember…

We’re taking about Red state Alabama….

(Realclearpolling on the race)

Moore, the controversial ex-judge, has said that “homosexual conduct should be illegal” and Muslims shouldn’t serve in Congress. He would continue the “divisive” and “hateful” rhetoric that has been present in Alabama and inject “chaos into chaos” in Washington, Jones said.

Jones claims ties to both parties but no blind loyalty to either. A mild mannered ex-prosecutor, he said that he was nominated for U.S. attorney by a Democratic president — but confirmed by a Republican-led Senate. He also highlighted his recent meetings with labor heads and business leaders.

“People are going to look back at this race and say Alabama made a choice,” Jones said.

At the same appearance one evening late last month, a young man asked Jones why moderate Republicans such as his parents should cross party lines and support a Democrat like him. Another man took issue with his support for abortion rights. A third told the story of a Republican friend who didn’t like Jones campaigning with a “national” Democrat — former vice president Joe Biden.

In an unexpectedly competitive Senate race that both national parties are watching closely, Jones is trying to pull off a challenging and at times conflicting two-step. In a state where Democrats make up less than a third of the electorate, Jones must turn out as many of them as he can — and win over enough Republican voters, too.

The result has been a strategy that includes criticizing Moore, casting himself as a pragmatist and making a direct appeal to the Democratic base by embracing some liberal positions — and touting his role prosecuting two Ku Klux Klan members who bombed a black church in Birmingham in 1963, killing four girls.

It has also involved a lot of sidestepping…..

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Election Day RealClear Politics Virginia Gov polling Avg has Northam ahead…

The Virgina  voters will decide if the polls have it right …

As always?

Turnout IS the key….

Date Sample MoE
Northam (D)
Gillespie (R)
Spread
RCP Average 10/29 – 11/5 47.4 44.4 Northam +3.0
FOX News* 11/2 – 11/5 1239 LV 2.5 48 43 Northam +5
Emerson* 11/2 – 11/4 810 LV 3.4 49 46 Northam +3
Quinnipiac* 10/30 – 11/5 1056 LV 3.9 51 42 Northam +9

Realclearpolitics….

Update….

Dave Wasserman goes technical on the race and points to ways that Gillespie might be able to beat the polling numbers….

  1. If Gillespie can match his ’14 Sen %s in Northern VA and Cuccinelli’s ’13 Gov %s in rural VA, he’ll be governor. Off-year VA ≠ prez. VA.

  2. Replying to

    In my view, that means Northam must count on overperformance in Tidewater (home base) & higher Dem engagement across board thanks to Trump.

  3. Replying to

    It’s also difficult to see Northam doing much better than Clinton in rural VA given confederate monuments drama/muddled pipeline position.

    Replying to

    There’s real support for Gillespie in Northern VA that didn’t exist for Cuccinelli or Trump. Being a DC insider not a liability in Fairfax.

 

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Can the Virginia Governors race finally be over for Democrats?

Despite all the chattering of teeth by Democrats and the feeling that this IS a close race?

If polls are anywhere near correct?

And….

Democrats can get out the vote?

Lt. Governor Ralph Northam will move up to the Governor’s Mansion come January 1st  2018….The numbers will be close….Ed Gillespie has been closing and…

It HAS been a messy campign folks….

A quartet of polls of Tuesday’s gubernatorial race in Virginia popped up on Friday, and they all show a close race between Democrat Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie, but unfortunately, none of them are from outfits we’re especially fond of. The numbers:

  • Øptimus (R): Northam: 40, Gillespie: 37
  • Rasmussen: Northam: 45, Gillespie 45
  • Roanoke College: Northam: 47, Gillespie: 47
  • The Polling Company (R): Northam 43, Gillespie 45

Both Øptimus and The Polling Company (which was owned by Kellyanne Conway until September) are Republican firms, and they have limited public track records. Rasmussen’s years-long crumminess, by contrast, is well-known.

As for Roanoke, they’ve frequently missed the mark in their home state. In the last gubernatorial election, most pollsters overestimated Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s standing, but Roanoke’s final poll was the wrongest, saying McAuliffe would win by 15 (he won by 2.5). They also overstated Hillary Clinton’s performance last year, figuring her a 9-point winner when she prevailed by 5. But Roanoke has also gotten it wrong in the other direction, most notably in 2012, when they said that Mitt Romney would carry Virginia by 5 points, even though he went on to lose by 4.

Any way you slice it, though, it’s a close race, and averaging recent polls puts Northam up around 3 points. Just a few more days ….

Daily Kos….

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Last major poll for Virginia Governor race has Democrat Northam ahead….

The race has closed in the last two weeks…..

Republicans will argue that the race should not be this close …..

A new New York Times/Siena poll in Virginia finds Ralph Northam (D) edging out Ed Gillespie (R) in the race for governor, 43% to 40%.

Said pollster Don Levy: “This is a classic barnburner election that will have both candidates and campaigns working hard until the polls close Tuesday night. Northam and Gillespie are both strong with their bases: Gillespie has the support of 88% of Republicans while Northam is supported by 89% of Democrats.”

The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Northam ahead by just 1.8%…..

Politicalwire…

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What if Nothing Happens after Mueller can prove Trump and Co. committed crimes?…Open Thread for 11/3/17

Vox is out with a piece that asks a question that SHOULD be asked….

Image result for mueller/Trump/ryan

What happens if the Republican majority in the House are MORE afraid of losing their jobs by voting to impeach a guy who 60% of America doesn’t approve, of and 49% are all right if they do bring him up on charges…… BUT….60% of Republicans do approve of the guy, not caring about his politics , or that he can remember what he said ten minutes ago …(Most American actually don’t seem to care about these doings because they do NOT affect them directly)

What happens if 60% of the Grand Ole party voters/supporters/party members poll that they do NOT care if Donald Trump starts a war with North Korea that could get tens of thousands of Korea’s killed and thousands of American soldiers also?

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What happen’s if Donald Trump keeps coaxing his adopted party to KEEP TRYING to ‘steal from the poor and give to rich?’…..

All these things ARE FUCKING SCARY…..

But so far?

It seems that almost NOTHING is more important to most Republican lawmakers than  KEEPING their jobs….

Some of those who don’t like what going on have stood up and been greeted with applause….But most who question Trump out loud are subjected to abuse from some of their local vocal party members …..

They get to add that to Trump berating them in public…..

In reaction to THIS?

Some have announced they’re giving up and not running for re-election…

But most?

Most keep their heads down, swallow hard and vote to support Trump’s all over the place requests and proclaim their allegiance to Trump’s  wishes….

The specter of Donald Trump winning the GOP nomination and Presidency still haunts these party members….Heck, it still spooks the media which has always ignored the rightwingnuts…But now tries to front some of their crazy stuff….

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If you get the time to read the Vox piece by David Roberts…..It IS good to understand NOT the law and legal part of Trump’s story for the last year…It sis also important to understand the political dynamic he is running on the American government…..And things unimaginable  COULD occur next year that could change the American way of governance and way of life if one parties lawmakers do NOT grow the ball’s to stand up be counted if  Robert Mueller and his investigators and prosecutors lay down a story of a cover-up’s , lie’s ,  money, laundering, conspiracy , obstruction and maybe even treason….

What if facts and persuasion just don’t matter anymore?

As long as conservatives can do something — steal an election, gerrymander crazy districts to maximize GOP advantage, use the filibuster as a routine tool of opposition, launch congressional investigations as political attacks, hold the debt ceiling hostage, repress voting among minorities, withhold a confirmation vote on a Supreme Court nominee, defend a known fraud and sexual predator who has likely colluded with a foreign government to gain the presidency — they will do it, knowing they’ll be backed by a relentlessly on-message media apparatus.

And if that’s true, if the very preconditions of science and journalism as commonly understood have been eroded, then all that’s left is a raw contest of power.

Donald Trump has the power to hold on to the presidency, as long as elected Republicans, cowed by the conservative base, support him. That is true almost regardless of what he’s done or what’s proven by Mueller. As long as he has that power, he will exercise it. That’s what recent history seems to show.

Democrats do not currently have the numbers to stop him. They can’t do it without some help from Republicans. And Republicans seem incapable, not only of acting on what Mueller knows, but of even coming to know it.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe US institutions have more life in them than I think. But at this point, it’s just very difficult to imagine anything that could bridge the epistemic gulf between America’s tribes. We are split in two, living in different worlds, with different stories and facts shaping our lives. We no longer learn or know things together, as a country, so we can no longer act together, as a country.

So we may just have to live with a president indicted for collusion with a foreign power….

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Top image…marketwatch.com

Middle image….bailtmoresun.com

Bottom image…latimes.com

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Republican US Senator’s grow tired of the job and are quitting…

It isn’t fun for a lot of them anymore….(Add some House members also)

The Congress hasn’t passed much of ANY Major legislation….

The move to stop working with the other party is NOT what most senators know…

Some of the Senator’s seem to worry more about keeping their jobs then making hard choices to do the right thing for America in whole then their party….

They have a party leader that campaigned AGAINST them…He watches cable news, golfs and makes mindless tweets….

His best buddy Steve Bannon constantly attacks them in efforts to throw the American government upside down…

And best of all?

special prosecutor is systematically your party leader, the President of The United State for actions he and others made to get in bed with the Russians, people you have NEVER trusted fir decades…..And when  you go home party people want to know why aren’t supporting Trump and Bannon????

Yup….

Remembering that most Senators are over 60 years of age…..

WTF would they want be in Washington DC getting subjected to all of this?

— Something bigger than term limits is afoot, though. Even though they have unified control of all three branches of the federal government, a lot of Republican lawmakers are just not having that much fun in this unproductive Congress. Based on several deep background conversations, here’s how a bunch of incumbents who have either retired or are contemplating it see things: You spend most of your time hitting up rich people and lobbyists for money but have little to show for it. Many colleagues in your own party seem unserious about governing. President Trump publicly blames you for his own ineffectiveness. You’re getting attacked from the Steve Bannon wing of the party.

The very real prospect of losing the majority next November makes sticking around even less desirable.Unlike in the Senate, where all 100 members can wield immense power, being a backbencher in the minority party of a majoritarian institution like the House is depressing and joyless. You get to wear a member’s pin and get invited to some cool parties. But unless you’re Nancy Pelosi, you’re functionally irrelevant.

— Slots on the House Ways and Means Committee, which writes the tax code, are highly coveted. Yet the chairmen of the key subcommittees keep throwing in the towel…..

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The above Washington Post piece points out also that the some Washington lawmakers view state politics as more of a place to be….

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Americans Do NOT like Trump/Republican tax plan by a 17-point margin early on….

If Republicans actually pass something ?

It won’t look ANYTHING like what they just put out….

The word by some is that the tax plan will be MORE difficult for Republicans to pass than their efforts to repeal healthcare which hasn’t been successful at ALL….

Republicans seem to be hard pressed to try pass unpopular legislation that will endanger their members in the midterm election for next year which are only a year away….

Americans oppose the GOP tax plan by a 17-point margin, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Half of Americans oppose the plan, a six-point increase from September. Only 33 percent support it. Among Democrats, 79 percent oppose the plan, while 75 percent of Republicans support it.

The survey was conducted from Oct. 29 to Nov. 1 among 1005 adults, just days before Republicans released the bill, meaning views of the tax plan could change.

Sixty percent of those surveyed said the plan primarily favors the wealthy. President Trump has touted the plan as beneficial for the middle class, but many critics of the bill have said that the corporate tax cuts and phase-out of the estate tax will benefit the richest Americans.

Even the majority of wealthy Americans agree – among respondents with incomes of $100,000 or more, 61 percent said the plan benefits the wealthy. And among the respondents who say it benefits the wealthy, only 10 percent say they support the plan.

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Majority of Americans have Mueller’s back on Trump investigation…

The new WashPost/ABC poll reveals that contrary to Donald Trump’s rants?

58% of Americans believe the Special Consel ( Prosecutor) is doing his job and it isn’t just a ‘fake’ news story and effort….

In simple terms?

Image result for mueller/trump

People are behind Mueller’s effort ‘s to find answers to goings on that Trump has refused to reveal and that appear to disregard rules and laws that other peoiple wouild get in trouble for not following…

The poll has 49% of it’s respondennts thinking that Trump HAS committed crimes even before Mueller has producted evidence that he did….

This is NOT  a good look for a President who lost the popular vote to get his present job and whose approval rate is below 40% with the American public, as a whole right now….

More than twice as many Americans approve as disapprove of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation of possible coordination between Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign and the Russian government, a new Washington Post-ABC News pollfinds, indicating that the conservative effort to discredit the probe has fallen flat as the case has progressed toward its first public charges.

A 58 percent majority say they approve of Mueller’s handling of the investigation, while 28 percent say they disapprove, the Post-ABC poll finds. People’s views depend in large part on their political leanings, but overall, Americans are generally inclined to trust Mueller and the case he has made so far.

Meanwhile, fewer than 4 in 10 Americans say they believe Trump is cooperating with Mueller’s investigation, while about half believe he is not.

A similar 49 percent think it is likely Trump himself committed a crime in connection with possible Russian attempts to influence the election, although more say this view is based on suspicion rather than on hard evidence….

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image…salon.com

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Support for Impeaching Donald Trump a hair below 50%…Biden ahead of him for 2020 ….Poll….

The Public Policy Polling poll also shows a trend that has NOT been a media favorite to talk about….

Support FOR Obamacare has risen above 50%

The poll also points to a 2020 re-election problem for Trump already ….If he’s around to and seeks to run again ?….Several Democrats are ALREADY looking like they would beat him….Joe Biden leads, with Sanders, Booker and Warren and others following in that order….

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PPP’s newest national poll finds a record level of support for impeaching Donald Trump. 49% of voters support impeaching him, to 41% who are opposed to doing so. This marks the 6th month in a row we’ve found a plurality of voters in favor of impeaching Trump, and it’s the closest we’ve found to a majority.

Trump’s approval rating has declined by a net 7 points in the last month. In September we found him at a -11 spread with 42% of voters approving of him to 53% who disapproved. Now he’s at -18 with 38% of voters approving of him to 56% who disapprove.

Trump claimed last week that he had accomplished more in 9 months than any President in American History, but only 25% of voters believe that claim to 66% who do not, although it’s a notable measure of the ‘Trump cult’ that 55% of those who voted for him do believe he’s the most accomplished to 32% who disagree. Voters actually put his first 9 months in a very different historical context- 49% already say they think he’s the worst President in American History, to 43% who dispute that notion. By a 54/40 margin voters wish Barack Obama was still President instead of Trump, and by a 48/42 spread they wish Hillary Clinton was in the White House rather than Trump.

Trump fares poorly on a number of metrics we tested in the poll. Only 37% of voters think he’s honest, to 56% who say he’s not. In fact a 52% majority come right out and say they think Trump is a liar, to 41% who disagree with that characterization. There are continued transparency concerns, with 60% of voters thinking he needs to release his tax returns to just 32% who don’t think it’s necessary for him to. And only 31% of voters think Trump has delivered on the core promise of his campaign to ‘Make America Great Again,’ to 60% who say he’s failed on that front….

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Note….

The Poll responders indicated that Trump was scarier than Ghosts, Vampires and other Halloween symbols…..

image…time

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Some Democratic Senators in Trump won states are NOT hurting in the Polls….

Surprise!

Democrats have more stateto defend next year…..But?

Even with those Senators voting WITH their party against Trump?

Their poll numbers remain high….

It seems that some of those states that Republicans thought they could contest easily aren’t  going that way a year out…

Three Democratic senators facing reelection bids in 2018 in states won by President Trump last year are maintaining high approval ratings, according to Morning Consult polling released Tuesday.

Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) saw their approval ratings inch above 50 percent in their respective states in the third quarter of 2017.

Both major parties have expressed optimism heading into the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats are hopeful they can pick up seats in Congress, while Republicans are seeking to pad their majority. Heitkamp, Manchin and Tester are among the Senate seats considered most likely to flip.

In North Dakota, 55 percent of voters approve of Heitkamp, and 32 percent disapprove. The margin of error in the poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In West Virginia, polling showed Manchin with a 53 percent approval rating, while 36 percent disapprove. The margin of error in that poll is plus or minus 2 percentage points….

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New Q-Poll has Northam with a 17-Point lead in Virginia Gov race….

All I can say is that the it appears the race is breaking in the last day’s heavily for Northam if this poll is correct….

With overwhelming support from non-white voters and double-digit leads among both men and women, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam holds a 53 – 36 percent likely voter lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Party candidate Cliff Hyra has 3 percent.

Today’s result compares to a 53 – 39 percent likely voter lead for Northam in an October 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Non-white likely voters back the Democrat 72 – 15 percent, with 2 percent for Hyra. White voters are divided 46 – 46 percent, with 4 percent for Hyra. Women back Northam 56 – 36 percent, with 1 percent for Hyra. Men go Democratic 51 – 37 percent, with 5 percent for Hyra.

Independent voters tip to the Democrat 47 – 42 percent, with 6 percent for Hyra. Democrats back Northam 97 – 1 percent, with less than 1 percent for Hyra. Republicans back Gillespie 86 – 8 percent, with less than 1 percent for Hyra.

Virginia likely voters disapprove 60 – 34 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing, compared to a 62 – 35 percent disapproval rating October 18….

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