Category Archives: Polls

Trump vs The Media?….Media winning so far…Poll

Donald Trump doesn’t like any Media stuff that isn’t nice’ to him….

He’s gone so far as use the word ‘fake’ news to label anything that isn’t complimentary to him….

He doesn’t answer questions from reporters from the major national news outlets mostly either….

It’s NOT played well with the American public which has its own problems with the media , BUT?……

Which SUPPORTS  a ‘free press’ and one that DOES ask HARD questions….

It’s pretty clear what President Trump is doing by going after the media. He sees someone who is tough on him, with a lower approval rating, and he sets up a contrast. It’s like making yourself look taller by standing next to a short person.

“You have a lower approval rate than Congress,” he needled reporters at last week’s news conference, making clear he had done the math.

Except maybe it’s not really working.

A new poll from Quinnipiac University suggests that while people may be broadly unhappy with the mainstream media, they still think it’s more credible than Trump. The president regularly accuses the press of “fake news,” but people see more “fake news” coming out of his own mouth.

The poll asked who registered voters “trust more to tell you the truth about important issues.” A majority — 52 percent — picked the media. Just 37 percent picked Trump.

The poll did find that registered voters by a narrow margin think the media has treated Trump unfairly, with 50 percent saying they disapproved of the coverage of Trump and 45 percent approving. But voters are even more critical of Trump’s treatment of the media, with 61 percent disapproving and 35 percent approving.

Even 23 percent of Republicans say Trump is mistreating the media, and independents disapprove 59-35….

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Political Roundup for February 23, 2017…Who’s gonna win the DNC race?…RRH Elections

Presidential/National

CPAC:  The Trumpification of the Republican Party will be on display at CPAC this weekend. What used to be a conservative event that was hijacked by the Ron Paul Revolution is undergoing a Trumpification as well.  After the Milo fiasco, we should all be wondering why this sad event is even continuing.

2018:  Democrats are feeling urgency to make gains in 2018 or potentially face another decade without congressional or state legislative power.  If they cannot make a move in 2018, they don’t deserve to ever have power again.

Twitter:  Many of us have wondered what kind of control does the Trump clan hold over the President’s twitter usage.  Apparently, Trump’s twitter rage and love are dictated by what he sees on television.

DNC:  The Hill has a breakdown of the DNC race and thinks Representative Keith Ellison (D-NOI / OGGoldy goes Republican) has the edge, but RRH commentary from yesterday seems to doubt these numbers…

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Republican push just for Repeal of Obamacare is almost gone…

Strike while the iron is hot?

On the Affordable Healthcare Law/Obamacare?

That iron is cooling and probably cold….

Between the mounting protests in the streets and at town halls….

Along with polling showing that more American’s are worried about losing their coverage?

The chances of an outright repeal of the program is just about gone….

Rightwingnuts still walkabout an immediate junking of the program…But NOBODY except them are for that anymore…

Repeal and Replace has been the call from the new President….

But any senario proposed on that will wait until next year or 2019 AFTER the midterm elections….

We’ve pointed this out before here….

The Affordable Healthcare program’s worst problem is it’s nickname….

As President Obama tried to do…

The program needs adjustments…

They ARE coming….

Probably another name….

But in the end….

That’s about all….

Ever since Republicans got down to the business of repealing the Affordable Care Act, the Senate has been singled out as the likely problem. Any plan that could zoom through the House would hit roadblocks among Senate Republicans, many of whom have resisted a wholesale repeal of the health law without a robust replacement plan.

But after weeks of loud protests, boisterous town hall meetings and scores of quieter meetings with health care professionals, patients, caregivers and hospital managers in their districts, it is becoming increasingly likely that a consensus in the House may be just as hard to reach.

The most conservative House members are pushing for a fast repeal of the health law with only a bare-bones replacement to follow, possibly just bigger incentives for people to open health savings accounts to fund their own health needs. Other Republicans are more interested in taking their time to come up with a replacement plan that, as of now, they have failed to cobble together beyond a menu of options….

“For the first time Republicans need to demonstrate what they are for and not just being against Obamacare,” said Doug Heye, who served as the deputy chief of staff to former Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia when he was majority leader. Mr. Cantor and House Republican chairmen labored in 2014 to bring a replacement bill for Republicans to get behind, Mr. Heye said, and got nowhere, even with no stakes.

“Republicans are going to come back to Washington next week and say what they’ve heard on the ground, at hospitals, at restaurants, at events where people have been concerned about where they go from here,” he said. “How much that shapes things over the next months remains to be seen.”

Further, recent polls show increasing enthusiasm for the health law as Americans see its repeal on the horizon…

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Joe Piscopo for Jersey Governor…Really….

As a Trump supporting Republican….

Image result for joe piscopo

Mr. Piscopo, 65, still managed to draw giggles from the $50,000-a-table crowd at the gala to help bring pandas to New York City. But his self-discipline is part of an effort to project a more sober image as he weighs his next move: trading in his Sinatra for a run for governor of his home state, New Jersey.

“I’m very serious about it,” he said. “I’ve never been more serious about anything in my life.”

While the daily whiplash out of Washington commands almost all the political attention, New Jersey is one of two states that will elect a new governor this year, as the eight-year reign of Gov. Chris Christie, once a national darling and now with historically low approval in his home state, comes to an end. And Mr. Piscopo is hoping to parlay his Jersey credentials and rising political profile — he campaigned for President Trump, and his radio show focuses on conservative politics — into a long-shot bid for governor as either a Republican or an independent in a state where Democratic voters vastly outnumber Republicans.

A recent poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University found that the category of “someone else” was within the margin of sampling error of equaling Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, the current leading Republican. Mr. Piscopo, who has not made an official announcement, trailed Ms. Guadagno and “someone else.”….

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image…6ABC.com

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FiveThirtyEight on Trump polls variances…

They are quite diffrent from different outfits….

But they are the lowest for any starting President in modern times…

Nate Silver: “Here’s what we can say for sure: It’s unprecedented for a president to face so much opposition from the electorate so soon. Recent polls show that anywhere between 43 and 56 percent of Americans disapprove of President Trump’s job performance. Even if you take the low end of that range, Trump’s numbers are much worse than any past president a month into his term.”

“But beyond that, there’s a lot of seeming disagreement in the polls about exactly how unpopular Trump is — and even whether his disapproval rating exceeds his approval rating at all.”

“What’s the real story? The differences between the polls aren’t random, or at least they don’t appear to be based on the relatively limited amount of data we have so far. Instead, Trump’s approval ratings are systematically higher in polls of voters — either registered voters or likely voters — than they are in polls of all adults. And they’re systematically higher in polls conducted online or by automated script than they are in polls conducted by live-telephone interviewers.”

Politicalwire….

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Democrats need to NOT split themselves apart….Open Thread for Feb. 19, 2017

The Democratic National Committee vote is coming up a week from now…..

It’s really between Rep. Ellison and Tom Perez….

Ellison is a Bernie sanders rep.

Perez is a Obama/Clinton Establishment rep.

Therein lies the problem….

The Democratic party is running in TWO different directions….

The main VOTING part or the party IS establishment …..

The main voice of the party these days is anti-establishment focused on stopping Trump in anyway possible….

The next chance for Democrats to actually gain elective power is next year….

Historically during off year midterm elections the party out of power does well…

But?

The Democrats have a LOT of Senate seats to defend, and good many of them are states that Donald Trump wrestled votes from previous Obama voters…

While ON a WHOLE Trump’s approval numbers are dropping….

In some of those places he won last November he, and therefore Republicans are holding their own….

That’s not all….

While the Democratic base IS energized RIGHT NOW?

Will they be a year and a-half from now when the midterm votes are cast?

Will Democrats beat history and actually come out and VOTE?

How many of those protesting in the streets vote?

How many of these energized Democrats will be pissed at their OWN party elders who KNOW that they will HAVE TO make deals with Republicans for somethings NO MATTER how much their based doesn’t want them to?

Senate Minority Leader is the defacto leader of the Democrats right now….

The New York Democrat started off telling people he WOULD deal…

But THAT did NOT play well with the base, so he changed things up and has fought Trump on his cabinet picks….

It has held up the process…

But it has NOT stopped the most controversial picks from getting confirmed and by NOT making deals Schumer gets NOTHING in return , while the GOPer’s get what they want…

Barack Obama, who is actually responsible for some of this mess because he didn’t get hands dirty in wheeling and dealing with Congress to give cover to his party, is free on the daily grind….

Hillary Clinton, is healing after winning the vote and losing the election that she thought he she had…..Some people think she might even try another run if the party can’t find a young strong candidate ….

So we have the basic’s of the 2016 Democratic primary STILL out there for Democrats…

Who just lost, and have been losing since Obama got into office….

And could lose even BIGGER if they don’t get their shit together SOMEHOW and figure out how to bring some of those Obama voters….

And Bernie Sanders ain’t evn a Democrat….

Go figure?

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Nobody likes you Donald. Well, except for non-college whites. How long will that firewall hold?

 By kos  @ Daily Kos

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 15: U.S. President Donald Trump (R) reacts to a reporter shouting a question as he departs with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) following a joint news conference at the East Room of the White House February 15, 2017 in Washington, DC. President Trump hosted Prime Minister Netanyahu for talks for the first time since Trump took office on January 20. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Can the incompetent asshole hold on to his core base?

The popular-vote loser is a supremely unlikeable person. Sure, he snuck into the White House thanks to an antiquated electoral system designed to protect the interests of slaveholders, but he didn’t get off to a rousing start. He got no honeymoon period. And somehow, he’s finding new depths of unpopularity to explore, with Pew clocking his favorabilities at 39-56. Of those, 46 percent disapprove “strongly,” which is higher than anything President Barack Obama saw, ever.

Now, lest anyone think that Trump is an anomaly, and not really representative of the GOP (an argument we’ll hear more and more in the months and years ahead), there’s this, “84 percent of Republicans and Republican leaners approve of the way he is handling his job as president.” He’s unambiguously their president.

Now it’s clear that there’s a dramatic racial divide in our nation’s politics, but there’s a dramatic difference among whites based on whether they have a college degree or not:

Approve Disapprove
White 51 48
Black 12 80
Hispanic 25 72
White, College 38 61
White, non-college 57 41

And that white, non-college-educated cohort is Trump’s firewall. He’ll bleed support among all those other groups, but there’s relatively not much room to drop. So if he’s going to end up in the low 30s or even high 20s, very possible within six months, it’ll be because non-college whites start abandoning him. And if Trump loses those guys, there’s nothing else propping up the GOP. And 2018 will be a political bloodbath.

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Political Roundup for February 15, 2017…Obamacare Repeal Not so fast…RRH Elections…

President/National

Flyover Country:  In case some of our readers were wondering as they are worrying about President Trump from their homes on the respective flanks of the country, Trump is still popular in middle America.

Obamacare:  As I predicted months ago, the Republicans are running into serious internal issues regarding the repeal of Obamacare.  If a repeal happens at all, you got to wonder if it will take as long as it took the Democrats to pass Obamacare.

DNC:  Tom Perez claims to have enough votes to win the race for DNC Chairman.  A Perez win would continue Obama control of the DNC.

SBA:  Linda McMahon was confirmed as SBA Director.  She received strong support from both parties by today’s standards.

MI-Sen:  With a dearth of interested candidates, Republicans in Michigan are floating the idea of Kid Rock running for US Senate.  Crazy to think that Kid Rock as a candidate is not that far outside the realm of possibility….

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Away from Big City America Trump is doing ‘exactly what he said he was going to do’…

Politico on a how Donald Trump is doing in Vigo, outside Terre Haute , Indiana….

On the first Saturday of Donald Trump’s presidency, as protesters and marchers stormed the nation’s capital and cities around the country, Dick and Jane Ames threw a party. Four days earlier, they visited a Party Mania store and purchased two big red balloons, $11 apiece, one in the shape of the number 4 and the other in the shape of a 5. For $50, they purchased a cardboard cutout of the guest of honor. Jane, 74, prepared a tantalizing, if at first blush random, spread of food. She whipped up a tamale casserole, a tossed salad with tomatoes, tips of asparagus and tacos—any dish she could conceive of that began with the letter “T”.

By the time Saturday night in Terre Haute rolled around, in the sunroom of their three-bedroom house, the Ameses and eight of their closest friends and family members feted the newest occupant of the Oval Office.
“Oh, Trump—I’m still all Trumped up,” Jane, a retired insurance broker, told me, reveling in the memory of that night one recent weekday afternoon over lunch at Logan’s Rib-Eye, a wood-paneled budget steakhouse situated in Terre Haute, a town along the Wabash River at the intersections of U.S. Highways 40 and 41, just off Interstate 70. Terre Haute proudly calls itself the “Crossroads of America,” a title Indiana would later adopt as its state motto. Across the table, her husband Dick, 73, a former air traffic controller, smiled and nodded. Trump, as far as these longtime Republicans were concerned, had already delivered on some of his biggest promises.

More than 600 miles to the east, in New York City and D.C., people’s Twitter feeds were clogging with breathless posts about the nascent administration’s seemingly disastrous first 24 hours: Trump’s false claims about crowd size at the inauguration, his dystopian inaugural address, and his rambling and self-referential address to CIA officers at Langley, to name only a few. Not here. While Sean Spicer was reaming out the press, the Ameses listened to Fox News, and followed their “T” feast with a “T” dessert, sipping tea while noshing on tea cakes, careful to keep the party’s elements on theme….

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Democratic Data driven campaigning isn’t enough…’Storytelling’ works better…

Politico is out with a piece that points to problems with Democrats methods of working the vote…

In the last decade Democrats have tried to emulate Barack Obama’s ‘data driven targeting technique’ to get wins….

It does work in some places…

But on a large scale Democrats are losing their shirts, pants and shoes in election across the board….

The Politico piece points to the ‘hearts and minds’ argument….

Saying that Democrats have been playing to voters minds….

But

‘Storyytelling’….

Something Donald Trump and his friends are masters at….

(We see….The story doesn’t have to be true) ….

Have been more successfully used by Trump & Co. (Up to Now) in playing to voters hearts with their stories…..

Storytelling has been the most effective form of communication throughout the entirety of human history. And that is unlikely to change, given that experts in neurophysiology affirm that the neural pathway for stories is central to the way the human brain functions (“The human mind is a story processor, not a logic processor,” as social psychologist Jonathan Haidt has written).

The scientific evidence of the effectiveness of storytelling is extensive. Consider the 2004 book, Don’t Think of an Elephant, in which Berkeley linguistics professor George Lakoff applied the analytic techniques from his field to politics, explaining that “all of what we know is physically embodied in our brains,” which process language through frames: “mental structures that shape the way we see the world.”

Convincing a voter—challenging an existing frame—is no small task. “When you hear a word, its frame (or collection of frames) is activated in your brain,” writes Lakoff. As a result, “if a strongly held frame doesn’t fit the facts, the facts will be ignored and the frame will be kept.” How then to persuade voters? How can we get them to change the way they see the world? Tell a story….

For Democrats, a useful metaphor to frame our storytelling is that while conservatives believe we are each in our own small boat and it is up to each of us to make it on our own, progressive morality holds that we are all on a large boat and unless we maintain that boat properly, we will all sink together. That metaphor could serve as our narrative frame, and addressing issues within this frame—rather than as separate, unrelated bullet points—would allow us to present emotional stories using language that speaks to voters’ values….

On the day after Donald Trump’s stunning, stinging victory over Hillary Clinton, President Obama surveyed the smoldering wreckage of the campaign in an interview with Rolling Stone. Obama recognized the problem when he highlighted the need for Democrats to “rethink our storytelling … [and] make it more interesting and more entertaining and more persuasive.”…

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Note…

This should NOT mean Democarst should lie….

But they SHOULD continue the emtional wave of the “Resistance’ that has formed against Trump and the Republicans in the streets and town halls…

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Voters would take either Obama or Hillary Clinton over Trump right now…Poll

Ouch?

A new Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll is showing a President going steadly down hill in the voting public eyes….

Be cautioned…

Trump supporters will call this poll a ‘fake poll’ because it’s bad news for their guy….

But Trump AND the Republicans are losing  points in the polls due to Trump’s polices and the Republkicans reluctanmnce to counter Trump ‘shoot from the hip’ uninformed comments and rants…

It’s been only three weeks……

But at some point his supporters are gonna get nervous and Donald Trump WILL this poll’s results sooner or later….

Americans Now Evenly Divided on Impeaching Trump

PPP’s new national poll finds that Donald Trump’s popularity as President has declined precipitously just over the last two weeks. On our first poll of his Presidency voters were evenly divided on Trump, with 44% approving of him and 44% also disapproving. Now his approval rating is 43%, while his disapproval has gone all the way up to 53%. If voters could choose they’d rather have both Barack Obama (52/44) or Hillary Clinton (49/45) instead of Trump.

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump’s impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that’s gone up already to 83/6…..

47% of voters now say they support the Affordable Care Act to only 39% who are opposed. It just keeps getting more popular. And only 32% think the best course of action to take on health care is repealing the ACA, while 65% would like Congress to keep it and just fix parts that need fixing….

The New York Times has repeatedly been a target of Trump’s attacks, but voters say they think the Times had more credibility than them 52/37. Trump seems to be losing ground in that conflict- he was only down 51/42 a week ago. The Presidency has been so diminished over the last 3 weeks that voters even say Saturday Night Live has more credibility than Trump, 48/43….

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Note….

Donald Trump campaigned on going to Washington and shaking things up…

He has…

And he’s losing support this poll says in doing so…

And should start to worry at the 44% to 44% number on people supporting/no supporting a move to remove him from office thru impeachment if other polls come up with around the same numbers…….

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“Fake News’ is anything Donald Trump and friends don’t want to accept…

A man living in alternate Universe has to figure out how to cope….

Once upon a time — it was November 2015 — “fake news” had a precise meaning. It referred to total fabrications — made-up stories about Donald Trump suffering a heart attack or earning the pope’s endorsement — and the phrase burst into the political lexicon as Facebook and Google vowed to clean up some of the garbage that had polluted the Internet during the presidential election.

Since then, conservatives — led by President Trump — have hijacked the term and sought to redefine it as, basically, any reporting they don’t like. At the extreme end of absurdity, Trump actually asserted on Monday that “any negative polls are fake news.”…

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Donald Trumnp could care less about facts…He has his a good many people that agree with him…

While the Majority of Americans KNOW that their President plays it fast and losse with the truth….

And attacks anyone in public who doesn’t see things HIS way ….

Around 40% of American’s don’t much care…(His approval ratings have steadily gone down since taking office)

They like Donald Trump for his ego and sheer ‘I don’t give a shit…I’ll just say it’….

Donald Trump made an “unusual degree” of blatantly false and misleading statements for a presidential candidate. And since taking the oath of office, he’s continued the pattern.

He’s insisted that three-to-five million votes were cast illegally despite any credible evidence. He’s repeated faulty statistics like the murder rate is at a 45-year high. His team has deployed “alternative facts” about the crowd size at his inauguration, and terrorist massacres that never took place.

There are the small falsehoods, too: Trump said 109 people were stopped for additional screening on the day his immigration executive order went into effect. But that was misleading. In truth, 348 people were prevented from boarding planes bound for the United States.

Stretching the truth worked for Trump during the campaign. And it seems to be working during his presidency, at least among Republicans. A recent CNN poll found that 90 percent of Republicans approve of leader they elected.

The likely reason: Trump trades on something psychologists and political scientists have known for years — that people don’t necessarily make decisions based on facts.

Instead, we are often guided by our emotions and deeply held biases. Humans are also very adept at ignoring facts so that we can continue to see the world in a way that conforms to our preconceived notions. And simply stating factual information that contradicts those deeply held beliefs is often not enough to combat the spread of misinformation. And, frustratingly, research finds the more knowledgeable we are about politics, the more stubborn we get on politically charged topics. We use our smarts to protect the our political groups, and not to grapple with uncomfortable truths….

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Note…

Democrats, Progressive and the Left are beginning to follow in Trump’s tracks ….

While President Obama and Hillary Clinton worried about how things should be to continue how things where and SHOULD be?

They are now succeeded by those out in the streets protesting and memebers of their party in Congress moving to say their piece and trying to use every trick in the book to hold off  Trump & Co…..

Things have gone into the gutter where Trump is comfortable….

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One Third of Americans do NOT know that Obamacare = The Affordable Healthcare Law…

By labeling the law?

The Republicans attached it to President Obama and made THE WORD a negative attached to mis-information…

A sizable minority of Americans don’t understand that Obamacare is just another name for the Affordable Care Act.

This finding, from a poll by Morning Consult, illustrates the extent of

public confusion over a health law that President Trump and Republicans in Congress hope to repeal.

In the survey, 35 percent of respondents said either they thought Obamacare and the Affordable Care Act were different policies (17 percent) or didn’t know if they were the same or different (18 percent). This confusion was more pronounced among people 18 to 29 and those who earn less than $50,000 — two groups that could be significantly affected by repeal.

Among Republicans, a higher percentage (72 percent) said they knew Obamacare and the A.C.A. were the same, which may reflect the party’s longstanding hostility to the law.

When respondents were asked what would happen if Obamacare were repealed, even more people were stumped. Approximately 45 percent did not know that the A.C.A. would be repealed. Twelve percent of Americans said the A.C.A. would not be repealed, and 32 percent said they didn’t know….

This confusion may affect the public debate over health care policy. If many people think repealing Obamacare would not affect the popular provisions of the A.C.A., they might not understand the potential consequences of the proposals being considered in Washington….

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Republicans hide while Democrats advance the Resistance….

Senate Democrats rush to talk to constituents, Republicans run and hide

Three constituents try to meet with Tom Cotton's staff

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) leaves a note on the door telling folks he doesn’t want to talk to them.

This week broke all the records for phone calls to the U.S. Senate as America rises up to reject Popular Vote Loser Donald Trump, his basket of deplorable cabinet nominees, and his plans to repeal Obamacare. That’s got Republicans on the run in Virginia (more than one there), and Illinois and Arkansas and Ohio and Idaho, and, well, everywhere. Meanwhile, this is what’s happening in Senate Democratic offices:

Sen. Bob Casey (PA):

He was having such a good time with it that he just couldn’t stop talking to people. Sen. Mazie Hirono (HI) took her turn as well:

Sen. Bob Menendez (NJ) steps up:

Now, none of these folks is what you’d call a liberal firebrand. But here they all are, proud members of the resistance. And, you know, actually representing us. The people. So keep your calls to your senators going. If you live in a blue state, you might even get to talk to them. If you live in a red state, well, they really need to hear from you.

And when you’re not busy on the phone or hanging out in front of your senator’s locked office door, please take a little time to thank the Democrats for standing with us.

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Does Donald Trump have secret support among the American people?

Politico is out with a piece that poses the question based on a couple of dueling polls….

A Morning Consult and new Rasmussen poll have Trump above 50% in approval while several other polls have him at around 40%…

The Politico piece thinks that when people are NOT forced to speak to a survey person, but just fill in the dots?

They are more willing to admit that they support Trump….

This piece could be  a response to the Trump White House reaching for some sort proof that their guy has more support than it seems…

Just how popular is Donald Trump? Two weeks into the new president’s term, it’s a matter of some dispute.

Traditional phone polls that use live interviewers — including some of the most trusted polls in politics and media — report limited support for Trump and the controversial executive orders he’s signed. But automated phone and Internet-based surveys tell a different story. Once the element of anonymity is added, the president’s approval ratings suddenly look a lot better.

It’s reigniting the campaign debate over whether pollsters are accurately measuring Trump’s popularity — or the breadth of support for his policies. The White House is already seizing on the issue, and forcefully pushing back against the early narrative that the president is suffering from historically bad polling numbers.

At Friday’s White House press briefing, when asked to comment on a newly-released CBS News poll — conducted by live interviewers — which put Trump’s approval rating at only 40 percent, press secretary Sean Spicer was ready with an alternate data point.

“I think there’s also a Rasmussen poll that showed he had a 51-percent approval rating,” Spicer replied sharply.

In referring to an automated poll that put the president’s popularity in the black, Spicer actually understated Trump’s level of support. According to Rasmussen Reports’ most recent survey released Friday, 54 percent of likely voters approved of the president’s job performance.

The debate is a flashback to last fall’s election….

More….

Note….

Rassmussen polling is one the LEAST trusted polling outfits…

It IS a Right leaning outfit which clouds this argument….

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