Category Archives: Polls

Daily Polling Numbers for October 17, 2017….Trump/Virginia Governor…Update!

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Virginia Governor – Gillespie vs. Northam Christopher Newport Univ.* Northam 48, Gillespie 44 Northam +4
Virginia Governor – Gillespie vs. Northam Roanoke College* Northam 50, Gillespie 44 Northam +6
President Trump Job Approval CNN Approve 38, Disapprove 57 Disapprove +19
President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 41, Disapprove 57 Disapprove +16
2018 Generic Congressional Vote CNN Democrats 54, Republicans 38 Democrats +16

RealClearPolitics….

Update…

…twitter….

New Monmouth poll of has Republican Ed Gillespie up over Democrat Ralph Northam by a margin of 48%-47%. They had Northam up 5 in Sept

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Virginia Governor’s race Update…Is Trump a factor?

Republican Ed Giliespie is carrying Donald Trump on his back 

Democratic Lt Gov Northam is worried about his parties left leaners and how to deal with Trump also…

The constand attention on Trump will make him a factor, at least in the media’s eyes….For the voters…Who knows?

Northam continues to lead the race in the polling by more than 5% points…

….The Republican chafes at questions over whether he is adopting a Trumpian message and forgoing his own advice in 2006 that Republicans should resist the “siren song” of anti-immigration rhetoric, insisting he is running as “who I am and what I believe in.”

“The great thing about a governor’s race in Virginia is the people who vote in it are focused on roads and schools and jobs and the opioid and heroin epidemic,” Mr. Gillespie said.

But his advertising reflects what he thinks will actually move the electorate: He is spending the bulk of his money on commercials focused on the statues, which make no mention of his view that the South was “on the wrong side of history,” and illegal immigrants. One of his immigration ads features amply tattooed Salvadoran prisoners meant to be members of the menacing gang MS-13, a target of the president’s.

Asked if he still supported a pathway to legal status for illegal immigrants, which he once vocally championed, Mr. Gillespie unenthusiastically confirmed that he did, deflating his answer by noting that “the debate is 10 years old from my perspective.” (He did more readily note that he supported “accommodating those who were brought here as children illegally,” the so-called Dreamers.)

Mr. Northam, for his part, also does not quite seem sure how he should handle Mr. Trump. Appearing earlier this month at a Falls Church shopping center that is a hub for the Vietnamese community, he alluded to “bigotry” in last year’s campaign without mentioning Mr. Trump by name. But his remarks were tame compared to those by the state legislator who introduced him and called Mr. Trump’s election “the world’s largest nightmare” and scorned the president as a “draft dodger.”

After winning his primary partly on the strength of a heavily aired commercial in which he called the president “a narcissistic maniac,” Mr. Northam, who is running to succeed Virginia’s Democratic governor, Terry McAuliffe, used the first debate of the general election to call Mr. Trump a dangerous man who also “lies like a rug.”

But at the final debate last week, held in a pro-Trump enclave of Southwest Virginia, Mr. Northam, who will campaign here this week with former President Barack Obama, made no mention of Mr. Trump. And he has started airing a commercial in which he says to the camera that if Mr. Trump is helping Virginia, “I’ll work with him.”….

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Next year could have the Cavs playing the Warriors again for the NBA Championship…

This dog sure had fun watching the NBA Basketball championship series….

I’m not a big basketball fan , but i was happy to see the Warriors win…

The people over at FiveTHirtyEight believe that the whole NBA season will again come down to the Stef Curry and his guys against Lebron James and his guys….

Image result for curry/james

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers are favorites to win their respective conferences and reach the NBA Finals.

That’s according to FiveThirtyEight’s “CARM-Elo” projections, which we’ve just launched for the 2017-18 NBA season. The Warriors and Cavs project to be the best regular-season teams in their respective conferences, although the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder — and perhaps the San Antonio Spurs — could represent formidable rivals for the Warriors in the West. Cleveland has less competition in the East. (Our projections are bearish on the Boston Celtics.) But Cleveland and Golden State could have an even larger advantage in the postseason.

Apart from one new wrinkle, our methodology for making these projections is essentially the same as it has been for the past two seasons. So I’ll spend the bulk of time here discussing what has changed. The new wrinkle: Our forecasts account for the amount of playoff experience on each team’s roster. Throughout NBA history, teams with extensive playoff experience have often found a higher “gear” in the playoffs. Put more precisely, they have a tendency to win more playoff games than you’d expect from their regular-season performance. This group of teams includes the Cavs, a team that our forecasts have often underrated once the playoffs began — and that won 12 of its first 13 playoff games last year after a mediocre regular season….

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image…sports illustrated.com

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Pence and Biden visit Virginia to stump for their parties Virginia Governor candidates…

Polling still shows Democrat Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie…

The current and former vice presidents swooped into the Virginia governor’s race Saturday, with Vice President Mike Pence rallying for Republican Ed Gillespie in the state’s Trump-loving Southwest and Joe Biden hosting a low-key economic development roundtable for Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam in vote-rich Northern Virginia.

The events came with just over three weeks to go in one of the most closely watched statewide elections of 2017, highlighting the candidates’ paths to victory as their parties push for a win to herald ahead of next year’s midterm elections.

The two events could hardly have been more different. Northam and Biden campaigned before a crowd of about 100 in a co-working space on the 8th floor of a building in a mixed-use development in Reston, where two-thirds of adults have a college degree and the median household income tops $110,000. They bypassed political red meat and instead discussed Northam’s economic policies.

Pence, meanwhile, traveled to the Washington County fairgrounds, one of the few politically safe regions of the state to bring a Trump administration official. His rally with Gillespie in Abingdon, where the Republican presidential ticket took home 75 percent of the county vote, was expressly political. Pence repeatedly attacked Northam in front of the crowd of 400 people….

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Cook Report changes 12 House races to advantage Democrats…..

We have been doing pieces on next years Midterm Races and Democrats chances of recouping a majority there almost weekly… 

Today’s Cook Report bears good news for Pelosi & Company…..

.But remember?

We ARE a year out from Election Day….

Based on recent developments in races and conversations with candidates and operatives on both sides of the aisle, many races have the potential to become more competitive. This week, we’re changing our ratings in 12 districts….

More……

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Trouble for the 2020 US Census?

The mandated count os Americans will even more critical then it has been in the past as American continues into the 21st Centery and changes who it is….

Some want to go back to the good ole days….

But THAT is NOT what America is anymore…

It essential to know the make-up of American….Now….

The agency that performs this task needs to have the tools to do its job….

Every 10 years the government undertakes the huge logistical task of counting as many Americans as possible: who they are, and — just as important — where they are. The count is mandated in the US Constitution because it is the raw material of representative democracy: the basis for how congressional districts are drawn and redrawn as populations shift. Every census is beset by claims of miscounts and omissions; even George Washington complained that the 1790 Census undercounted the country’s total population. But the 2020 Census is already so short of cash, and so far behind its usual deadlines, that even hardened experts say a national debacle is within the realm of possibility.

Budget constraints imposed by Congress have forced the Census Bureau to close local offices, plan to hire fewer “enumerators,” who contact hard-to-find citizens, and cancel field tests of new techniques and systems. This is especially worrisome because for the first time, in 2020, the Census Bureau wants to conduct at least half the count online. It’s a delicate undertaking to devise a computer system that is accessible enough to be used by average Americans but also secured against hacking. Cyber threats both real and imagined are expected to depress the response rate in 2020, which is also, lest we forget, a presidential election year.

Aggravating the issue is steadily eroding public trust in government expertise, fueled in no small part by President Trump, who is quick to denounce numbers he doesn’t like. A few well-placed Tweets dissing the “rigged” census could become a self-fulfilling prophesy. Terri Ann Lowenthal, former staff director of the congressional subcommittee that oversees the census, is among the worried. “If the president publicly questions the integrity of the count,” said Lowenthal, who has worked for both Democrats and Republicans, “it could undermine confidence, depress response rates, and derail the entire census process.”….

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Looking at Trump and who actually has his back….

Check your news paper…..

Check your cable news channel….

The lead is gonna be something counter to what things have been for the last ten years politically….

Donald J. Trump is trying to get the world to see AND DO things HIS way….

The Big guy KNOWS that saying things without restraint works for him…Good or BAD attention is still ATTENTION and the media, he rants against LOVES Bright Shiny objects…

For most of us who can think and chew gum at the same time this focus on him causes us to shake our heads….

But for others?

He’s the guy that earns their support for fighting for those who feel America has moved to fast to help those who should pushed aside and left behind…They are afraid of what they though America would be in the 21st Century…

When we break down his approval ratings by specific areas, we get a more complex picture of his image. The president gets 65 percent approval for hurricane response and 53 percent approval for the economy and fighting terrorism. He gets his lowest marks for the way he is administering the government. And he is a divider when people want a uniter.

No question that 68 percent or more say they would like to see Trump stop tweeting, but is measuring that really reflective of his underlying political power compared to what’s happening in the economy? In the end, will voters cast ballots on tweets or jobs?

We see the same dynamic being played out over and over again: The president grabs the spotlight with strong statements (typically on Twitter) of his policies, for which he is savaged as over the top on social and mainstream media. Then, over time, he often wins the underlying policy argument. You can see how this played out on the economy and taxes, the national anthem, attacks on bad trade deals and calls for more border controls.

Remember, Americans liked President Obama for his way with words and his calm leadership style. They just opposed many of his policies, so Obama’s numbers gave a false sense of approval. Trump is the mirror opposite. People are put on edge by his words while favoring a lot of the positions he is taking on issues.

When it comes to rank-and-file Republican voters, Trump is the undisputed leader of the Republican Party. No poll I’ve seen puts his support from Republicans at below 80 percent and we at Harvard-Harris have it at 84 percent, which is remarkable, given his knock-down-drag-out fight with some mainstream Republicans....More…

Stung by the miss in Trump actually pulling off a win some pundits and pollsters caution us to NOT underestimate Trump’s support….Which is at roughly 35 to 40% of Americans, across a wide sample of polls, not just one or two….The linked piece above wants to discount that based on special elections for Congress, but does not note the wins the Democrats are getting in special elections on the state level  nor does it address the closeness of Democratic loses in the Congressional contests….

The fact is?….Donald Trump LOST the popular vote….The overall Trump support  polls are probably right…The MAJORITY of Americans think the guy is operating in an Alternate Universe….

The problem though is this…..

As Trump wonders thru his first year of Presidency, with little idea of what he’s doing except trying to ‘WIN’?

Will saner heads be able to keep the country in one piece until he leaves the stage and a Democrat comes in to straighten things up and move forward , NOT backwards?

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Political Roundup for October 11th, 2017…RRH Elections…

Last night, Republicans held FL-LD-44, while the following combinations advanced in mayoral elections in North Carolina:
Raleigh: Nancy McFarlane (I) 49 – Charles Francis (D) 37
Greensboro: Nancy Vaughan (D) 61 – Diane Moffett (D) 22
Durham: Steve Schewel (D) 51 – Farad Ali (D) 29
Fayetteville: Mitch Colvin (D) 45 – Nat Robertson (R) 32

President/Miscellaneous

Duh: The failing New York Times shares the obvious: ultra mature President Donald Trump’s super not petty and totally provoked fight with outgoing US Senator and Liddle Man Bob Corker (R) isn’t endangering his legislative agenda.

Big, Beautiful Wall: Speaking of the American Great Wall… According to the very dishonest AP, many people are saying that they don’t like the Donald’s proposed wall. They also disapprove of his plan to deport the “dreamers.”

Chicago Demographics: According to The Economist, without the Big, Beautiful Wall soon to Make America Great Again, Hispanics have eclipsed African-Americans to become Chicago’s second-largest ethnic group. Until recently, they were long ignored by the C[r]ook County Democratic machine.

God’s Waiting Room: The Wall Street Journal reports that real estate developers are looking to shake Boca Raton, Florida’s reputation as “God’s waiting room.” Given the perennial swing state’s very troubling age gap, these sorts of things are always worth keeping an eye on, especially when they reflect potential larger trends.

Russians and Fake News: The New York Times highlights the ingenious method by which clever, Russian-run accounts fanned the flames of controversy on both sides in 2016: anger. This quote really says it best: “One of the most powerful weapons that Russian agents used to reshape American politics was the anger, passion, and misinformation that real Americans were broadcasting across social media platforms.”….

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Yet ANOTHER Poll showing Trump losing steam….

The man’s approval ratings are going in the garbage across the country as a whole…..

But it appears that polling shows he’s STILL got people that WOULD vote for him in traditional Red states….

President Trump’s approval rating has fallen in all 50 states since his inauguration in January, according to a new poll.

A Morning Consult survey found that Trump’s national job performance numbers have has also dropped since January. In September, 43 percent of respondents said they approved of Trump’s performance, and 52 percent disapproved. In January, 49 percent of voters approved of Trump’s performance, compared to 39 percent who disapproved.

According to the new poll, a majority of voters in 25 states said in September they disapproved of Trump’s job performance.

Some of these states included those Trump carried during the 2016 election, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Pennsylvania.

Fifty-one percent of voters in Nevada and Arizona also disapproved of Trump’s job performance….

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Could Democrats do a MeGoven come 2020?…

Politico raises the question we’ve discussed here before….

Could a Left leaning Democrat repeat  the 1972  McGovern vs Richard Nixon elections?

In that one…..George McGovern, the Democrat LOST….BIG….

(Bernie Sanders or even Elizabeth Warren should NOT be the next Presidential nominee….)

I agree with the piece…

Democrats SHOULD NOT elect a hard left leaning nominee for President in 2020….Even with his problem’s?….Donald Trump or even Mike Pence would surely win another term…

Image result for mcgovern/sanders

Four decades ago, Richard Nixon lived out the fantasy many liberals harbor about Donald Trump, stepping down in the face of possible impeachment over a slow-moving scandal long before his term was up. Before that happened, however, Nixon was reelected by a resounding margin, in large part because progressives made strategic errors that Democrats today appear hellbent on repeating.

In 1968, as in 2016, Democrats narrowly lost the White House after nominating a relatively moderate, establishment candidate instead of a more liberal alternative who had inspired a raging enthusiasm among younger voters. Democrats spent much of the next four years arguing about what direction the party should take. White working-class voters—traditionally a Democratic bloc—were sluicing away, and progressives, convinced the party needed to change both its policy direction and its coalition of supporters, demanded a new approach: a “loose peace coalition” of minorities, young voters and educated white Democrats, as strategist Fred Dutton wrote in his 1971 book, Changing Sources of Power. One year later, the party’s presidential nominee, the ultra-liberal Senator George McGovern of South Dakota, went on to lose 49 states in one of the most lopsided victories in American history.

We’re a long, long way from 2020, but it’s abundantly evident that Trump will again run a Nixonian campaign, tearing down his opponent and presenting himself as the champion of an aggrieved coalition that Nixon called the “silent majority” and Trump calls “the forgotten men and women” of America.

Consumed by internecine battles and the idea of opposition, Democrats run the risk of again nominating someone like McGovern who pleases progressives but steers a course too far from the country’s center of political gravity to win, even as Trump continues his funhouse mirror impression of Nixon as the avatar of white cultural-grievance politics….

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On the Bernie Sanders = Georeg McGovern thing….

Oh, and Bernie Sanders isn’t even a Democrats and Hillary Clinton beat him…..

image….empiregs.com

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Alabama Us Senate Special Election Update…How does Democrat Doug Jones run?

Very gingerly ……

He must blacks and what ever scant white vote he can muster…..

And?

Steal some the white voters who might be worried enough about knucklehead Judger Moore to actually vote for a Democrat….

Image result for Doug jones/alabama

….The former U.S. attorney and civil rights advocate, whom Democrats now believe has an outside shot of upsetting firebrand Roy Moore in a Dec. 12 special election, is staying away from challenging the presidential attacks on professional athletes’ anthem protests and defense of Confederate monuments, which are designed to motivate Trump’s base.

His problem: Jones is going to need the state’s Democratic-leaning African American population to turn out for him, and taking on the president would likely be an attention-grabbing way of motivating them. But Jones is also likely to need a good deal of support from white suburban voters — including many who lean Republican in a state that supported Trump by 28 percentage points last year — to keep the race close. Two recent polls have the contest within single digits.

So Jones is betting that focusing on Moore’s own contentious past statements, rather than Trump’s jabs about the NFL, will be enough to energize the base voters he needs without alienating conservatives who are wary of Moore. The former judge was ousted twice as the Alabama Supreme Court’s chief justice for refusing to comply with federal orders on hot-button social issues — and his provocations have gotten no less dramatic since then.

Jones “obviously has to put together a multiracial coalition — that’s imperative for a Democrat in the South. For a Democrat in Alabama, that can be a difficult needle to thread: to try and energize African-Americans who trend more progressive while holding onto enough white voters who are hesitant to vote for a Democrat,” warned Montgomery-based Democratic pollster Zac McCrary. “What’s different in this case is you have two accelerants: Donald Trump and Roy Moore.”….

More….

image…nbcnews.com

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Democrats way back is thru Gerrymandering gains…or…State Elections?

There is a big case before the Supreme ‘s about the way Wisconsin does it’s Congressional Districts…

Essentially they’ve rigged a system where it doesn’t matter what the census says….

Republicans OWN huge advantages in state legislatures in Southern, Western and the ‘swing’ Northern states that have the electoral college numbers they need…Those states  give the GOP a good sized majority in the House and an on paper majority in the Senate ....

171005_scotus_getty_1160.jpg

 Jeff Greenberg , in a Politico piece, thinks that gerrymandering isn’t the only thing that has put Democrats back….

His view is that Democrats in focusing on putting Barack Obama in the White House played left Democrats with no state foundation in the key places that Hillary Clinton.

Those two Obama election wins where countered by Republicans moving to governor and state legislative races which they have cleaned up in the last six years…..

The conclusion Democrats are drawing? With 24 seats needed to take the House of Representatives, suddenly putting those 16 or 17 seats in play would go a long way to taking over the chamber.

It’s an attractive conclusion; and Lord knows the possibility of ending the steadily more outrageous phenomenon of partisan gerrymandering is a worthy goal in itself.

But if Democrats think this is the key to their political woes, they are kidding themselves. What ails the party—at every level—goes far beyond alleged Republican skulduggery. And a diagnosis of those ills requires an understanding of what the past decade has wrought.

The Democratic Party, as I wrote here even before the 2016 wipeout, finds itself in its worst shape since the 1920s. From its perch in 2009, when it had a (shaky) filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, a 256-178 majority in the House and control of a majority of states, it has seen a precipitous collapse. That fall began in 2010, when a wave election brought a loss of 63 House seats, six Senate seats—and, most notably—massive loses at the state level. Republicans gained control of the Legislatures in North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, and won 29 governorships.

These defeats did not happen because of gerrymandering (or voter suppression, for that matter), because Democrats had control of the politics before 2010. (When Democrats had political control in North Carolina, for example, it had some of the most unrestrictive voting laws in the country.) In order for the GOP to use its power to entrench its majorities, it had to win those majorities in the first place. That happened because Republicans and their conservative allies poured resources into a workmanlike effort to win control over state politics, while Democrats were mesmerized by the more glamorous fight to win and hold the White House.

Well, isn’t extreme partisan gerrymandering still a noxious tool whose end would help Democrats? Yes, but not nearly as much as you might think. To understand that, look more closely at what has happened in the past four elections…..

More….

Note….

Quietly…..

The Democrats HAVE been making progress in state elections this year…

And are over performing in Special House elections even if they don’t win them…

image…Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)

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Is the Grand Ole Party in a ‘freefall’?

Maybe….

A new poll point strongly to this…

But it’s just one poll…

If other polls confirm this?

Watch out for next years midterms…

Could the  Republican Civil War be it’s own fault for big loses in next years elections?

Voters are souring on the Republican Party, and they place more trust in the Democratic Party when it comes to health care, according to a Suffolk University/USA Today national poll of registered voters.

Voters’ assessment of the Republican Party has plummeted to 62 percent unfavorable/23 percent favorable, significantly changed from the 55 percent unfavorable/32 percent favorable registered in a June poll conducted by the Suffolk University Political Research Center. The Democratic Party recorded a 48 percent unfavorable/37 percent favorable rating in the most recent poll.

“The Republican Party is in freefall,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “In March the GOP had a 48 percent unfavorable rating, in June the negative swelled to 55 percent. Today the GOP unfavorable is 62 percent. What’s next?”….

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Rough waters for Democratic US Senate hopes….

Larry Sabato’s people game out the chances of Chuck Schumer getting Mitch McConnell’s job as Senate Majority Leader….

….from August….*(Sen .Corker IS Retiring….Sen. Collins is thinking hard about it)

Right now we have four Toss-ups: two held by Republicans, and two held by Democrats. If one assumes a 50-50 split on the Toss-ups, and every other seat goes the way we currently rate it, there would be no net change in the Senate. Given the map, that would be a substantial Democratic accomplishment and a missed opportunity for Republicans. But the election’s a long way off and the potential exists for Republicans to make gains next year, too, even if the president’s approval rating doesn’t improve. That would be an unusual result historically, but history is merely a guide. It guarantees nothing, particularly on a Senate map where Democrats are stretched historically thin.

One final point: It is highly unusual that there have not been any retirements so far*. Usually there are at least a couple of open seats, and typically more than that, according to the University of Minnesota Humphrey School of Public Affairs’ Smart Politics blog. This is just a guess, but there probably will be at least an open seat or two by the time we get to next fall. Maybe one of the long-rumored retirees, like Feinstein in California or Hatch in Utah, ultimately opts to retire after making moves in recent months to run again. Such a retirement would do little to the Senate bottom line because both of those states lean so heavily to one party. More impactful would be a shocker that truly changes the calculus in one of these states — like one of the Toss-up senators making the calculation later this cycle that they don’t have a path to another term, or that they don’t want another term….

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Much has been made of the fact that next year Senate Democrats are defending 10 seats in states Trump won in the presidential race, while Senate Republicans are defending only one seat in a Clinton-won state, held by Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV). These represent the vast majority of the 14 total “crossover” seats in the Senate, those held by a party different than the one that captured the state in the 2016 presidential race. The other three crossover-state senators are Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), a Democrat in a Trump state up for reelection in 2020, and the aforementioned Gardner of Colorado and Collins of Maine, also up for reelection in 2020. So Republicans hold a 52-48 advantage right now despite holding only three seats in Clinton-won states, while Democrats have 11 Trump-state seats and are still in the minority.

That speaks to the GOP advantage in the Senate right now. Even though Trump lost the popular vote by two percentage points, he won 30 states in the Electoral College, while Clinton won only 20. Because all states are created equal in the Senate, the median state in the Electoral College gives us a sense of the GOP tilt of the states overall. In ranking all the states by presidential margin from most to least Republican, the median falls between Arizona and North Carolina, which Trump won by an average of about 3.6 points, so presidential performance in the median Senate seat is roughly 5.5 points to the right of the nation. That’s about the same Republican lean of the median House seat by presidential performance…..

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Update…

Race Rating Change: Flake’s Arizona Senate Seat Moves to Tossup

Ten Democratic senators are running for re-election in states President Donald Trump carried in 2016, yet Republican Jeff Flake looks like the most vulnerable senator in the country right now. Even though Trump won Arizona, Flake’s adversarial relationship with the president has caused him to be vulnerable in the primary and general elections. And Arizona’s emergence as a Democratic takeover opportunity complicates GOP efforts to hold and expand their majority….

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Polling Update for October 3, 2017….NJ Gov…Alabama Senate Special…

New Jersey Governor – Guadagno vs. Murphy Monmouth Murphy 51, Guadagno 37 Murphy +14
Alabama Senate Special Election – Moore vs. Jones JMC Analytics Moore 48, Jones 40 Moore +8

...from Real Clear Politics….

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Dear Donald Trump..Don’t run again in 2020 …Majority in new Poll….

Donald Trump isn’t th right guy for the American Presidency ….

He doesn’t have the ‘right stuff’ ……

And he should hang around for another term is the what respondents told poll takers for the Economist/YouGov…..

After almost 9 months on the job?

Image result for Trump

Donald Trump STILL has a majority of Americans against his being in office..

But ….He DID  RUN better than his numbers showed last year….

A new survey indicates a majority of Americans doubt President Donald Trump’s honesty, view him as a weak leader and don’t want him to run again. But Republican lawmakers say he isn’t a drag on their agenda and predict he will be a formidable candidate in 2020.

Fifty-six percent of respondents in the latest Economist/YouGov survey were so put off by the commander in chief they wanted him to opt against a re-election bid. The results were not kind to Trump, with 54 percent saying they either somewhat or strongly disapproved of how the president is doing his job, while 39 percent approved.

When asked if they viewed Trump as “not honest and trustworthy,” 53 percent agreed with that assessment, while 30 percent disagreed. Before the 2016 election, many political experts predicted concerns about his temperament might sink his candidacy. Nine months into his term, 56 percent doubted he has the right disposition for the country’s highest office compared to 31 percent who thought he does.

Trump’s negatives are at or above 40 percent on key issues such as voters’ views of his honesty, experience, sincerity and ability to inspire. And only about a third of those surveyed (37 percent) viewed him as effective at this point in his presidency.

On the important issue of Trump as a leader, more than half, 54 percent, saw him as “somewhat weak” or “very weak.” Forty-six percent viewed him as a “very strong” or “somewhat strong” leader….

But there IS this also….

[ House Freedom Caucus Chairman] Meadows, who has said he talks with the president about the GOP legislative agenda with some frequency, added with a chuckle: “You ought to check out the last poll that came out in my state. They want him to run again.”

GOP Rep. Peter T. King of New York disagreed that the poll numbers make Trump a drag on the Republican agenda. “Nah,” he said with a dismissive hand wave.

“I saw a poll in my district … where his unfavorables had gone up considerably,” King said of his Long Island-based 2nd District. “I live in a Democratic district that Obama carried twice — but the president would still beat Hillary Clinton head to head in the district.” (Trump carried the King’s seat by 9 points last fall.)

Base support

That means Republicans like King are likely to stand by Trump and continue pushing his agenda because they view him as having the electoral support of their constituents. And to that end, both Meadows and King noted something that also shows up in the Economist/YouGov results: Around one-third of those surveyed often gave the president high or above-average marks.[

More….

Note….

Of course Robert Mueller and Congress could spoil Trump’s plans….

He IS already fundraising for 2020 by the way…..

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