Category Archives: Polls

Trump day 98…Few Surprises….

Donald Trump has been living the American White House for 98 days…

While some might be running around with their hair on fire still?

This Dog isn’t….

Image result for donald trump president

President Donald J. Trump is mostly who he was before he got his new job….

A 70 year old  entertainer that that gave up his full time Real Estate job for a stint in Politics and Government…

Trump IS learning on the job that his new job is a LOT more difficult than he though it would be…

Trump HAS been up to his old Real Estate tricks which served him well during the recent campaign…

Go HARD at any adversary …

Make shit up if you have to…..

Then at the last minute back-up and make a deal using OTHER people’s money…

NOT Yours…

It’s been the same during the last 98 days….

Trump has gone hard on….

Immigration…

The Russians….

A Muslim Travel Ban…

A Bigger, Longer and better looking Wall on the US?Mexican Border…

Throwing out existing Trade Agreements with China, Mexico, and Canada among others…

Getting 8 major American Cities and the state of California to buddy up with ICE immigrant hunting…

and Of course trying to Repeal the Affordable  Healthcare Law , which has the nickname of Obamacare…

 

Please recheck the list immediately above…

Donald J. Trump has been UNABLE to find JOY with any of the ABOVE…

Sure he has been signing off on executive orders that reverse President Obama’s orders….

And he has done some military actions that made the headlines….

But on the whole?

Donald Trump has NOT be able run his act like he PROMISED….

 

Between Democrats, The Courts, Media , his supporters  and his adopted Republican Party?

Things have been sloppy and disappointing….

But….

His base IS still eating his sidewalk ACT up….

And the Media is only too happy asking questions and featuring  him , like he wants, as the Hit Parade….

image…usmagazine.com

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Could Los Angeles Riots return?

A poll of Los Angles residents  come back with a majority thinking YES they could return due to conditions in the area …

Nearly 6 out of 10 Angelenos think another riot is likely in the next five years, increasing for the first time after two decades of steady decline. That’s higher than in any year except for 1997, the first year the survey was conducted, and more than a 10-point jump compared with the 2012 survey.

Young adults ages 18 to 29, who didn’t directly experience the riots, were more likely than older residents to feel another riot was a possibility, with nearly 7 out of 10 saying one was likely, compared with about half of those 45 or older. Those who were unemployed or worked part-time were also more pessimistic, as were black and Latino residents, compared with whites and Asians, the poll found.

Researchers theorized that the turnaround may be linked to several factors, including the more polarized national dialogue on race sparked by police shootings in Ferguson, Mo., and elsewhere, as well as by the tenor of last year’s presidential election. Moreover, many parts of L.A. still suffer from some of the economic problems and lack of opportunities that fueled anger before the riots…

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Will Wisconsin and Pennsylvania stay Blue after Trump’s win?

THAT is a critical question for Democrats going into the 2020 Presidential election electoral college politics …..

Below is from Stu Rothenberg….

Are Wisconsin and Pennsylvania realigning with the GOP, or were Donald Trump’s victories in both states – and the accompanying Republican Senate wins last year – merely aberrations?

The answer will likely impact the fate of the country’s two major parties over the next decade.

Partisan realignments follow from significant attitudinal and behavioral changes by voter groups, or by a fundamental change in the make-up of the electorate. But rates of change can differ.

Most Southern states changed party allegiance quickly, as did West Virginia in 2000. It isn’t that Republicans suddenly won every election in those states. Some Democratic officeholders with the strongest grassroots strength held on. But when they left office, their seats flipped to the GOP, first in federal contests and eventually in state legislative races. (Democrats can still be competitive in some contests for state office.)

Of course, not all Southern states flipped simultaneously. The Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton presidencies delayed realignment in their home states, and downscale, white working-class voters in Louisiana and Arkansas retained their Democratic identification longer than white voters elsewhere in the region.

At some point, white voters in these states simply decided that the national Democratic Party had changed and no longer represented them. And those voters moved en masse to the GOP.

But other realignments over the past 40 years have developed more slowly, the result of evolving voter perceptions about the positioning of the national parties….

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GA-06 Spec Election Democratic turnout ‘unusually strong’….

The Democratic base HAS stayed energized since Trump moived into the White House…

The aim for the party would be to KEEP this going for another year and half for the 2018 Midterme elections….

If THAT is possible?

Democrats could very well stun eveyone a recapture a US House majority…And even a US Senate majority might just be possibe to pull off?

But first a win on June 20th in the GA-06 would suit Democrats fine…

Jon Ossoff benefited from an unusually strong turnout in the first round of voting in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District last week, surpassing all recent benchmarks for Democratic turnout in an off-year election, according to an Upshot analysis of newly released voting data.

Past Democratic primary voters represented a larger share of the district’s voters than they did in 2016 or 2014, and they turned out in greater numbers than in a typical midterm election.

The election in Georgia’s Sixth is only the latest in a string of special elections where Democrats have turned out in impressive numbers. It’s a reversal from recent off-year elections, when Republicans turned out at far greater rates than Democrats.

If the pattern holds into next year’s midterm elections, it will help the party’s long-shot goal to win back the House. Historically, Democratic midterm turnout has been stronger when Republicans hold the presidency.

The Republican turnout was not weak. Past Republican primary voters turned out at rates that were nearly typical for a midterm — a rare feat for a special election. It was enough to keep Mr. Ossoff beneath the 50 percent necessary to win outright.

But Democrats did something even rarer: A larger percentage of Democratic primary voters turned out than did Republican primary voters, by a four-percentage-point margin. Even when Democrats surged in successful years nationally in 2006, 2008 and 2012, their turnout of primary voters didn’t beat that of the Republicans, either nationwide or in Georgia’s Sixth….

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American’s want MORE Government…Not Less…

The Republicans mantra is LESS government…

THAT isn’t what American want….

Is the Republican Partygoing the WRONG way with the majority of American voters who voted AGAINST Donald Trump

RIP, Tea Party: A record number of Americans say government “should do more”

And this is another striking finding from the NBC/WSJ poll: 57% of the public says that the government should do more to solve problems and meet the needs of Americans, versus 39% who said the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. That’s the highest share yearning for a more active government since the poll began asking voters about the role of government in 1995. And it’s a significant shift even since 2015, when 50% said that the government should do more while 46% complained that it was too active. More NBC/WSJ poll numbers are coming out later today….

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In November, voters gave control of the White House and Capitol Hill to the party traditionally associated with reducing the size of government. But now, a record number of Americans say that the government should do more — not less — in order to solve the nation’s problems.

A new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll finds 57 percent of the public saying that the government should do more to solve problems and meet the needs of Americans, versus 39 percent who said the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.

That’s the highest share yearning for a more active government since the poll began asking voters about the role of government in 1995. And it’s a significant shift even since 2015, when 50 percent said that the government should do more while 46 percent complained that it was too active….

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Republicans begin to worry if Trump will cost them in next years MidTerm elections…

Again?

The word has been that Republicans would have the political advantage in keeping and even increasing their majorities in the US House and Senate….

But?

That isn’t what a LOT of of people beginning to think with Donald Trump running high disapproval numbers, slow government startup and his issistance on trying to get stuff passed that isn’t gonna happen…

Republicans say President Donald Trump needs to turn things around fast — or the GOP could pay dearly in 2018.

With the party preparing to defend its congressional majorities in next year’s midterms, senior Republicans are expressing early concern about Trump’s lack of legislative accomplishments, his record-low approval ratings, and the overall dysfunction that’s gripped his administration.

The stumbles have drawn the attention of everyone from GOP mega-donor Sheldon Adelson, who funneled tens of millions of dollars into Trump’s election and is relied upon to bankroll the party’s House and Senate campaigns, to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Adelson hasn’t contributed to pro-Trump outside groups since the inauguration, a move that’s drawn notice within the party, and McConnell is warning associates that Trump’s unpopularity could weigh down the GOP in the election.

Potential GOP candidates whom party leaders want to recruit are afraid of walking into a buzz saw, uncertain about what kind of political environment they’ll be facing by the time the midterms come around — and what Trump’s record will look like….

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Donald Trump STILL lives in a Alternate Universe….

……The guy apparently doesn’t know what ACTUALLY happened in November?…..

…twitter….

Trump is tweeting today about how he “would still beat Hillary in popular vote.” Just a reminder: He lost the popular vote.

New polls out today are very good considering that much of the media is FAKE and almost always negative. Would still beat Hillary in …..

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While Trump holds his base?…Resistance to his Presidency grows…

Could the mounting pushback against Trump and the Republican majority in Congress and across the countries state office holders echo the 2010 and 2012 AGAINST Republicans come next years Midterm Elections?

Is Trump working almost singlehandedly to help Democrats who have taken HUGE political loses under Obama’s time in office?

From pink-hatted protesters to big town hall turnout, the anti-Trump resistance has been in full swing since January’s inauguration. The left is taking a page out of the Tea Party playbook, and building the resistance from the grassroots up.

Why it matters: We saw a similar rise on the right in 2009-2010 shortly after Obama was inaugurated, and a huge number of Republican lawmakers were voted into office. That movement shook up US politics and changed the face of the Republican Party, and we could see similar aftershocks here.

Money:

Media:

  • The most engaged partisan Facebook pages belong to left-leaning and Trump resistance groups. These pages are outperforming popular news competitors in overall engagement.
  • Anti-Trump sites launched across the web — some with prominent names behind them, such as ‘Crooked Media,’ by former Obama staffers and ‘Resistance Calendar,’ by filmmaker Michael Moore.
  • Cell phone apps and internet start ups that send daily text messages about getting involved have emerged with hundreds of thousands of followers.

Politics:

  • Former politicians are getting involved. Barbara Boxer’s Fight Back PAC is establishing itself against Trump’s agenda but also as a movement to win votes for progressives.
  • Trump’s disapproval rating is on the rise: 57% – Quinnipiac, 55% – Gallup Daily Tracker, 52% – Economist/YouGov, 49% – Marist
  • Congressional town halls and protests have been flooded with angry voices over what has been dubbed the ‘resistance recess.’ The movement was loud enough to get a response via twitter from President Trump.
  • Activism among liberal democrats is on the rise:
    • 47% of liberal Dems report say they’ve gotten involved in the last past two months, compared to 23% of all adults.
    • Liberal Dems, more than any other group, anticipate taking part in activism in the next two years
Peaceful protests:

More….

 

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Polling continues to point to Trump’s minority support status….

Public Policy Polling is out joining the others in showing a President coming up on 100 days in offoce that has Most America distrustful of a lot of his domestic and foreign policies….(They want him to play less Golf)

The April 2017 poll isn’t good news for other Republican lawmakers in leadership spots either…

PPP’s newest national poll finds that the Democratic enthusiasm that led to strong finishes in special elections in Georgia and Kansas over the last week is a national phenomenon.

Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 47-41. But what’s more notable is the enthusiasm imbalance. 63% of Democrats say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting in the 2018 election, compared to only 52% of Republicans who express that sentiment. When you look at the 2018 House picture just among the voters most excited about turning out next year, the lead for Democrats grows to 19 points at 57-38. Republican leaning voters are comparatively disengaged, with the GOP holding advantages only among voters who are ‘somewhat excited’ (48-40) and ‘not that excited’ (46-31).

One reason for the comparative lack of Republican excitement may be the continued unpopularity of Donald Trump. Only 43% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 50% who disapprove. The core promise of Trump’s campaign was to ‘Make America Great Again,’ but only 35% of voters actually think he’s accomplished that goal to 55% who think he hasn’t.

Foreign policy has taken on a larger role in the national discussion in recent weeks and Trump’s leadership on that front isn’t inspiring a ton of confidence. 39% of voters think he will get the United States into World War III during his Presidency, to just 40% of voters who don’t think he’s going to have that effect. Trump has continued to attack the Obama administration’s approach to foreign policy lately, but by a 51/39 spread voters think Obama had a better handle on foreign policy than Trump. And by a 51/43 split, voters would rather still have Obama than Trump as President overall….

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GOP Sen.Ted Cruz TRAILS Democrat Rep. Castro in Texas US Senate early polling for next year…

Image result for ted cruz'

The Republican hard right US Senator  comes up BEHIND Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) 31% to 35% in polling for the 2018 Texas US Senate seat election….

Image result for joaquin castro

Now this IS Texas folks….

Except for some Democratic strong holds?

Texas votes Republican…

But  Ted Cruz has some issues….

Image result for beto o'rourke 2016

Lesser know Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) runs in tie with Cruz at 31% in the Texas Lyceum poll……

Hmmmm?

A Democrat hasn’t won a Senate race in Texas in 29 years. Cruz, who came in second in last year’s GOP presidential primary, has long been considered a big favorite.

The poll also found President Trump underwater in job approval, with 54 percent disapproving while 42 percent approve.

Fifty-two percent of respondents said the country is on the wrong track — down from 63 percent in a 2016 edition of the poll.

Texans are divided on the question on partisan lines, with 84 percent of Democrats saying the country is on the wrong track while 73 percent of Republicans say it’s on the right track….

More….

top image of Ted Cruz…abcnew.go.com

middle iamge of Joaquin Castro….nbcnews.com

bottom image of Beto O’Rourke…..kfoxtv.com

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Democrat Jon Ossoff ‘s win was beter than expected in GA-06 but there will be a run-off…

In Red State Georgia  Jon Ossoff was expected to get around 45 to 46% of the vote in the special election to replace Tom Price who went to Trump’s Admin….

Image result for jon ossoff win

Ossoff did  better….

But didn’t get the 50% of the vote he needed to win the Congressional House seat outright…

So there will be a run-off second election on June 20th….

Here’s the FiveThirty Eight look at this…

The result is consistent with a pro-Democratic national environment

There’s some chatter out there that Ossoff’s showing is a bad sign for Democrats. He didn’t clear 50 percent, they say, and he barely improved on Clinton’s performance in Georgia 6.

I think that’s a flawed argument.

For one, Clinton had already greatly improved on previous Democrats’ performance in Georgia 6. She lost to Trump there by only 1.5 percentage points. Former President Barack Obama lost the district by 23 points in 2012, as did Democratic congressional candidate Rodney Stooksbury in 2016.

So if you’re just looking at the 2016 presidential result as your benchmark you’re probably missing something. Instead, our best estimate of the partisan lean of a district is to take a weighted average2 of its past two presidential election results. By that measure, a Democrat would be expected to lose Georgia 6 by 9.5 percentage points in a neutral national environment (one in which the two parties fought to a tie nationally). Democrats did far better than that on Tuesday, losing by 2 points. The Democratic candidates combined took 49 percent to the Republicans’ 51 percent….

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image….fivethirtyeight.com

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Race WAS a Large factor in 2016 Trump Presidential vote…Poll

After EIGHT years of the firts American  Black (mixed) race President?

Donald Trump WAS able to run on a thinly vailed campaign of rasism….

From The Birther issue, to seemingly embracing white nationalists, to a Wall on the border against Mexico to a Muslin Ban……

Polling from the widely respected 2016 American National Election Study points Trump and the Republicans scaring white lower class voters into voting for him….Even knowing that he was a Rich guy, who had little to ANYTHING in common to them except the same skin color ….

How ironic?

Just months after getting their votes he has turned his back on promises he made almost everyday…

Many observers debated how important Trump’s racial appeals were to his voters. During the campaign, Trump made overt racial comments, with seemingly little electoral penalty. Could the unusual 2016 race have further affected Americans’ racial attitudes?

To test this, I use what is called the “symbolic racism scale” to compare whites who voted for the Democratic presidential candidate with those who voted for the Republican. This scale measures racial attitudes among respondents who know that it’s socially unacceptable to say things perceived as racially prejudiced. Rather than asking overtly prejudiced questions — “do you believe blacks are lazy” — we ask whether racial inequalities today are a result of social bias or personal lack of effort and irresponsibility.

In the chart below, you can see the scores for white voters who supported the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates between 1988 and 2016. For clarity, the second and fourth items have been reversed so that the larger values always indicate higher animosity.

Since 1988, we’ve never seen such a clear correspondence between vote choice and racial perceptions. The biggest movement was among those who voted for the Democrat, who were far less likely to agree with attitudes coded as more racially biased.

So which of these had the biggest influence?

Finally, the statistical tool of regression can tease apart which had more influence on the 2016 vote: authoritarianism or symbolic racism, after controlling for education, race, ideology, and age. Moving from the 50th to the 75th percentile in the authoritarian scale made someone about 3 percent more likely to vote for Trump. The same jump on the SRS scale made someone 20 percent more likely to vote for Trump.

Racial attitudes made a bigger difference in electing Trump than authoritarianism….

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Nate Silver joins the rest in calling the GA-06 for Democrat Ossoff…But?

It is unlikely that Democrat Jon Ossoff will reach the 50% of the vote he needs to get the House seat after the votes are counted tomorrow night…

A run off isn’t till June…

Plenty of time for Republicans to recover and mount a concerted effort to keep the seat…

Image result for jon ossoff

…….Ossoff will probably finish with less than 50 percent of the vote, which would trigger a runoff between him and the next-highest finisher — most likely the Republican Karen Handel, but possibly one of three other Republicans (Bob Gray, Dan Moody Judson Hill) who are closely bunched behind her in polls.

Furthermore, the combined vote for all Republican candidates will probably exceed the combined vote for Ossoff and other Democrats, although it should be close. And the district has historically been Republican-leaning, although it was much less so in the 2016 election than it had been previously. All of this makes for a fairly confusing set of circumstances and a hard-to-forecast outcome.

Apply these principles to the Georgia 6 race, and you’ll conclude that Tuesday night’s first round won’t actually resolve that much — unless Ossoff hits 50 percent of the vote and averts the runoff entirely. (That’s an unlikely but hardly impossible scenario given the fairly high error margins of polls under these circumstances.) Even if Ossoff finishes in the low 40s, it will be hard to rule him out in the second round provided that he still finishes in first place by a comfortable margin. But even if Ossoff finishes just a point or two shy of 50 percent, and Democrats finish with more votes than Republicans overall,3 he won’t have any guarantees in the runoff given that it’s a Republican-leaning district and that the GOP will have a chance to regroup. With the runoff not scheduled until June 20, there will be lots of time for speculation about what the first round meant — and a lot of it will be hot air….

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image..esquire.com

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Suburban G.O.P. Voters begin to lose faith in their Party….

Donald Trump has NOT turned out to be who they expected him to be early on…

These voters helped Trump and Republicans get over….

But Not anymore?

Is this an opening for energized  Democrats?

A gray mood has settled over conservative-leaning voters in some of the country’s most reliably Republican congressional districts, as the party’s stumbles in Washington demoralize them and leave lawmakers scrambling to energize would-be supporters in a series of off-year elections.

While the next nationwide elections are not until 2018, Republicans have grown fearful that these voters are recoiling from what they see as lamentable conditions in Washington: a government entirely in Republican hands that has failed to deliver on fundamental goals like overhauling the health care system.

Early missteps by President Trump and congressional leaders have weighed heavily on voters from the party’s more affluent wing, anchored in right-of-center suburbs around major cities in the South and Midwest. Never beloved in these precincts, Mr. Trump appears to be struggling to maintain support from certain voters who backed him last year mainly as a way of defeating Hillary Clinton.

Interviews with Republican-leaning voters in four suburban districts — in Georgia, Kansas, Minnesota and New Jersey — revealed a sour outlook on the party. These voters, mainly white professionals, say they expected far more in the way of results by now, given the Republican grip on power in the capital. In opinion polls, they consistently give Mr. Trump mediocre approval ratings, even as he remains solidly popular with lower-income whites….

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Note…

While the media talk was and is of a united Grand Ole Party supporting Trump and Speaker Ryan?

THAT is NOT what is actually happening across the GOP and Republican base…

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KS-04 CD…The Republican won…Republicans SHOULD be worried anyways…

By Taegan Goddard @ Politicalwire

With help from President Trump and other high-profile Republicans, Ron Estes (R) held off a surprisingly strong challenge by newcomer James Thompson (D) to win a special election last night to fill the vacancy left by CIA Director Mike Pompeo.

A win is a win, but the final result should seriously worry Republicans. In a district Trump won by 27 points just five months ago, Estes managed to win by just seven points, 53% to 46%. A 20-point swing towards Democrats during a new president’s first 100 days — a.k.a. his “honeymoon” — is a political earthquake.

It’s also becoming a trend. Last night’s House race was the 10th special election pitting Democrat against Republican since Trump’s election last year and the 8th where Democrats outperformed the presidential margin.

Here’s why: If Democrats won every seat where Trump did worse than in Kansas’ 4th congressional district, they would hold more than 350 seats in Congress. That’s not going to happen, but it shows how it’s very possible for Democrats to win the 218 seats they need to take control….

The paywall link…

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Poll…American Most Popular/UnPopular Senator’s Early 2017…

Morning Consult is out with the poll….

Of the 100 members of the Senate, there is only one who is underwater in the eyes of his constituents, according to the new Morning Consult Senator Approval Rankings. And it happens to be chamber’s most powerful member: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

More than 85,000 registered voters across America evaluated the job performance of their senators from from January 2017 through March 2017 to determine the latest rankings (Full Methodology).

Forty-four percent of Kentucky voters say they approve of the 30-year Senate veteran, while 47 percent disapprove, making him the only senator with a net negative approval rating. It’s not all bad news for McConnell, though: He’s trending in the right direction when you consider what voters from the Bluegrass State thought of him ahead of the 2016 elections. In September, more than half (51 percent) said they disapproved of McConnell, compared with 39 percent who approved of his performance.

McConnell has consistently been the least popular senator in the Morning Consult rankings, but he’s closer than ever to breaking even. At the other end of the spectrum is the fiery Vermont independent, Bernie Sanders, who retains his place atop the list as the country’s most popular senator.

Three-quarters (75 percent) of Vermonters approve of the liberal firebrand who finished as runner-up to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, compared with 21 percent who disapprove. However, Sanders’ elevation to national prominence does appear to have compromised his standing among some of his constituents. His approval was down 12 points (from 87 percent) compared with his numbers in September, while his disapproval was up 9 points (from 12 percent)…..

The List…..

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