Category Archives: Media

Anything to do with media

Republican House Reality Check…No ‘Massive’ Budget….

A few days ago I did a post that suggested the Republican House Leadership was boasting of doing a ‘Massive’ spending bill….

I pointed out in my comments how dumb that was because of various reasons…..Principally because even in the House?…Moderate Republicans are begging to dig in their heels and NOT go along with things that will cause them to lose their jobs in  next years Midterm elections…Conservatives  in safe districts don’t have that problem…

So guess what?

Republicans are gonna have to hold their noses and buddy up with Democrats to counter the Conservatives IN THEIR OWN party…..

Imagine THAT?

After launching a whipping operation Monday night to gauge interest in voting on the full spate of spending bills, GOP leaders walked away with a tally of dozens of Republican lawmakers who said they couldn’t commit — as well as several hard “no’s” — to voting for the partisan bundle of 12 bills, according to Republican lawmakers and aides.

The survey underscored GOP leadership’s ongoing difficulty in appeasing the party’s most fiscally conservative wing while still holding onto support from moderates, and serves as a reminder that ideological differences within the House Republican conference are likely to force the majority to continue making deals with Democrats to keep the government funded.

The initial vote count was so dismal, in fact, that Chief Deputy Whip Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) told Republican lawmakers in a closed-door meeting Tuesday morning that the tally set a record for the most “undecided” responses, according to people who were in the room…..


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Barack Obama holds his own….

For eight years Republicans vowed to get rid of the Affordable Healthcare Law they dubbed ‘Obamacare’….(Trump now wants to also)

They haven’t…

President Obama got a deal with Iran to halt their nuclear weapons program…

Trump and some Republicans vowed to get rid of it…

They didn’t….

Image result for Obama/trump

Obama worked to strengthen NATO….

Trump said he wanted more money before he stood by the alliance …

He’s hanging in there…

Barack Obama has to be wearing a little smile these days….

Determined to dismantle his predecessor’s legacy, Mr. Trump in the space of a couple of hours this week reluctantly agreed to preserve President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran and failed in his effort to repeal Mr. Obama’s health care program.

The back-to-back events highlighted the challenge for a career developer whose main goal since taking office six months ago has been to raze what he sees as the poorly constructed edifices he inherited. Mr. Trump has gone a long way toward that objective through executive action, but now faces the reality that Mr. Obama’s most prominent domestic and international accomplishments remain intact.

In neither case has Mr. Trump given up. He instructed his national security team to keep rethinking the approach to Iran with a view toward either revising or scrapping the nuclear agreement. And by the end of the day he was vowing to let Mr. Obama’s health care program collapse.

“We will return!” Mr. Trump tweeted Tuesday morning about the collapse of his health care effort.

Yet there is little appetite among the United States’ partners to revisit the Iran deal, nor is there much eagerness among lawmakers to cancel the existing health care program without a new system to install in its stead.

The latter notion seemed to die almost immediately on Tuesday on Capitol Hill, leaving the president to throw up his hands and say he would simply let Mr. Obama’s program collapse of its own weight. “I’m not going to own it,” he told reporters. “I can tell you the Republicans are not going to own it. We’ll let Obamacare fail, and then the Democrats are going to come to us.”

Nearly every president arrives in office promising a new direction, especially those succeeding someone from the other party. But few, if any, have spent as much of their early months focused on undoing what the last president did rather than promoting their own proactive ideas as Mr. Trump has.

Where the president has succeeded so far in reversing the Obama legacy, it has largely been on issues where he could act on his own authority……



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Trump Admin certifies Iran Nuke Deal compliance…AGAIN….

ANOTHER one of those campaign promises that is changed….

Reality Bites…..

President Trump agreed on Monday to certify again that Iran is complying with an international nuclear agreement that he has strongly criticized, but only after hours of arguing with his top national security advisers, briefly upending a planned announcement as a legal deadline loomed.

Mr. Trump has repeatedly condemned the deal brokered by President Barack Obama as a dangerous capitulation to Iran, but six months into his presidency he has not abandoned it. The decision on Monday was the second time his administration certified Iran’s compliance, and aides said a frustrated Mr. Trump had told his security team that he would not keep doing so indefinitely.

Administration officials announced the certification on Monday evening while emphasizing that they intended to toughen enforcement of the deal, apply new sanctions on Iran for its support of terrorism and other destabilizing activities, and negotiate with European partners to craft a broader strategy to increase pressure on Tehran. Aides said Mr. Trump had insisted on such actions before agreeing to the consensus recommendation of his national security team.

“The president has made very clear that he thought this was a bad deal — a bad deal for the United States,” Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, told reporters at a briefing on Monday before the decision was made.

By law, the administration is required to notify Congress every 90 days whether Iran is living up to the deal,….


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Kamal Harris’s star keeps rising with Democratic donors….


I was speculating about Cory Booker as a young counter to ALL the Sanders/Warren gushing from the pundits….

But about a month ago I switched my nose to the new  Senator  from California, Kamal Harris….

Image result for kamala Harris

That is where I’m at now….

In a long discussion this weekend with a guy I know who talks politics….He shook his head repeatedly when I mentioned Harris….

‘No Black Woman will make it’…. he cautioned….

I reminded him the Blacks and Yellows ARE the backbone of the Democratic party….

I reminded him that the woman thing might not apply to Harris because she isn’t Hillary Clinton (who STILL has NOT recovered in post election polling)…

I reminded him that Harris at 52, was a generation below Warren and two decades younger than Sanders….

He kept shaking his head….

But he promised me he’d check up on the new Senator that appears to many of us as a running for President on a time frame similar to the last Democratic President…..

“She’s running for president. Take it to the bank,” another fundraiser said. “She’s absolutely going to run.”

Donors say Harris is giving them a glimmer of hope when they need it the most.

They see the former prosecutor-turned-California attorney general as embodying the qualities a Democratic presidential candidate would need to win the White House in 2020.

They also see the 52-year-old African-American woman as a fresh face.

“There’s a big hunger out there for somebody new and different,” said Bill Carrick, a Democratic consultant who served as an adviser to former Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.), who challenged Harris in last year’s senatorial race.

“People are looking for champions. … She’s in that category. There are people who might not know her real well but want to like her. What little they know, they like.”

Since November, Harris has become one of her party’s biggest draws: She has raised upwards of $600,000 for Senate candidates in recent months, and she recently raised $227,000 in an email for MoveOn.Org, according to sources close to Harris.

Her fans see her as an antidote to Donald Trump and as a candidate who could feed off the so-called resistance to the Republican president.

“Kamala has come to embody what’s next for our party,” said Ben LaBolt, a Democratic strategist and former spokesman for former President Barack Obama.

“She comes to Congress with immense credentials — a law enforcement official with a smart approach to taking on bad actors and protecting consumers. And she’s already broken through as bringing a unique voice in the Senate that is both substantive and relatable — which is hard to do your freshman year.”….



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Trump’s support continues to soften….

Yesterday’s WashPost/ABC Poll seems to paint a picture that has emerged over the last couple of months….

While Trump and the Republicans core base remains strong….

Their support around the edges continues to melt away….

Trump and his adopted Republicans seem tone deaf to the idea that they  trying to do things that MOST American do NOT like or want…..

There IS a midterm election coming up next year…..

fresh Washington Post/ABC News poll underscores the softness of Trump’s support as he prepares to mark six months in the White House on Thursday.

It also highlights a growing intensity gap. Support for the president is more tepid, but opposition is increasingly inflamed.

The president’s overall approval rating has slipped to 36 percent from 42 percent in April. For context, George W. Bush and Barack Obama both held 59 percent approval ratings in Post/ABC polls conducted around their six-month anniversaries.

Media coverage often focuses on how rank-and-file Republicans, as well as elected officials, continue to stand behind Trump. While true, a close examination of the results suggests that no more than 1 in 4 Americans believe passionately in him or his presidency at this juncture.

Trump’s disapproval rating has risen to 58 percent in the national survey, which was conducted last Monday through Thursday. Overall, 48 percent disapprove strongly of how he’s doing. But while 36 percent approve of Trump overall, only 25 percent approve strongly.

Consider the partisan breakdown: 82 percent of self-identified Republicans approve of how Trump is doing, including 62 percent who approve strongly. Meanwhile, 85 percent of Democrats disapprove of Trump, but a larger 75 percent disapprove strongly.

Where Trump really differs from Obama is that his approval leans more heavily on strong backers. Obama’s average “strong” approval was 28 percent during his presidency, not much different than Trump today. But Obama averaged 21 percent “somewhat” approval, 10 points higher than Trump.

Across the battery of questions in the survey, Trump’s hardcore base of support appears to be about a quarter of the public, give or take….



This dog has felt that Donald Trump’s undoing will be the sheer weight of the continuing Russian connection attention, Robert Mueller’s  outcome and the fact that Trump and the Republicans NEVER REALLY where out for the same things…..

As the overall support declines for Trump we probably will see the slow abandonment of his support in Republican Lawmakers that will hurt Trump’s standing and time in office…

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McConnell throws in the towel…Healthcare Bill pulled…May try straight Repeal like Trump suggests…

The Senate Majority Leader has pulled the current Senate Healthcare Bill after yesterdays announcement that there are four solid votes against it….

Trump tweeted yesterday that his adopted party should just vote for a straight Repeal which of course would throw the countries Healthcare Insurance in a knot of uncertainty ….

The Republicans are fighting themselves on this…

And a full Repeal sounds more unreasonable than what has just failed….

And will most assuredly fail also.

Cause a straight repeal would need 60 votes….

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on Monday night the Senate will try to separate the ObamaCare repeal and replacement efforts, closing the door on the current GOP healthcare legislation.

“In the coming days, the Senate will vote to take up the House bill with the first amendment in order being what a majority of the Senate has already supported in 2015 and that was vetoed by then-President Obama: a repeal of Obamacare with a two-year delay to provide for a stable transition period,” McConnell said in a statement.

The move means Senate Republicans will try to repeal ObamaCare now, while kicking a replacement until after the 2018 mid-term election.

The 2015 ObamaCare repeal bill passed the Senate 52-47, with GOP Sen. Susan Collins (Maine) and then-Sen. Mark Kirk (Ill.) the only Republicans to oppose it.

McConnell will need to overcome procedural hurdles if he wants the Senate to get to a vote on a repeal-only proposal. He’ll need at least 50 senators to support getting on the House-passed legislation, which is being used as a vehicle for any Senate action.

And separating the two could force Republicans to get 60 votes — and the support of Democrats — on the replacement legislation.

It wasn’t immediately clear when the Senate would try to pass the repeal legislation. The upper chamber is expected to be in session until Aug. 11, when members will leave town until early September…..


Oh, by the way?

Trump is already blaming the Democrats (and few Republicans) for his adopted party failure on their efforts….

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Two more Republican Senators come out against the Healthcare Bill…

If GOP Senator’s Moran (R-Kan) and Lee (R-Utah) stick to their call, joining Senator’s Collins (R-Maine) and Paul (R-Ky) ?….

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is probably not gonna even ask for a vote to HAVE a vote.?

The result would be a GRAND Failure of Republicans to do something they have rode on for EIGHT years…

The Democrats are NOT part of this….

Senators Mike Lee of Utah and Jerry Moran of Kansas declared Monday night they would oppose the Senate Republican bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act, for now killing a seven-year-old promise to overturn President Barack Obama’s signature domestic achievement.

The announcement by the senators, both Republicans, leaves their leaders two votes short of the necessary tally to begin debate on their bill to dismantle the health law. Two other Republican senators, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Susan Collins of Maine, had already said they would not support a procedural step to begin debate.

“There are serious problems with Obamacare, and my goal remains what it has been for a long time: to repeal and replace it,” Mr. Moran said in a statement. “This closed-door process unfortunately has yielded the” Senate repeal bill, which he asserted, “failed to repeal the Affordable Care Act or address health care’s rising costs.”

In his own statement, Mr. Lee said of the bill, “In addition to not repealing all of the Obamacare taxes, it doesn’t go far enough in lowering premiums for middle class families; nor does it create enough free space from the most costly Obamacare regulations.”

By jumping together, Mr. Moran and Mr. Lee ensured no one would be the definitive “no” vote.

With four solid votes against the bill, Republican leaders were faced with two options: Try to go back and rewrite the bill in a way that could secure 50 Republican votes, a seeming impossibility at this point, or do as Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, promised and team with Democrats to draft a narrower, bipartisan measure to fix the flaws in the Affordable Care Act that both parties acknowledge….


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Something for Republican senators to ponder: Americans prefer Obamacare to Trumpcare, 2 to 1

CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 22: Demonstrators protest changes to the Affordable Care Act on June 22, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. Senate Republican's unveiled their revised health-care bill in Washington today, after fine tuning it in behind closed doors. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

In a second poll in less than a week, opposition to Trumpcare is growing in the American public. The Kaiser monthly health survey for July showed a 6-point increase in disapproval of the proposal over just the past month, to 61 percent. Now a new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows not only that the people hate Trumpcare, they prefer Obamacare over it by a 2-to-1 margin, 50 percent to 24 percent.

There’s a split by party, as you might expect, with Democrats broadly favoring the existing law and Republicans the latter. But that split wasn’t even, with 77 percent of Democrats favoring the legislation passed in 2010 by their party and only 59 percent of Republicans favoring their party’s solution. Independents in this case came down on the side of the Democrats, with 49 percent favoring the existing law vs. 20 percent backing the GOP alternative.What’s more, roughly 6 in 10 Democrats and a third of independents strongly prefer Obamacare. Only 43 percent of Republicans strongly prefer their party’s proposal. […]

More worrisome for Republicans hoping to pass a new bill is how the support broke out by demographic. Only among Republicans, conservatives, white evangelicals and white men without college degrees did more Americans support the GOP bill than Obamacare. In every other group analyzed, including older respondents and white women without college degrees—an important part of President Trump’s voting base in 2016—backed the existing law by some margin.

Greg Sargent teases a bit more out of the poll, details which show just how much disaster Republicans are courting with this bill. Asked “On health care, which of these do you think is more important for the federal government to do: provide healthcare coverage for low-income Americans, or cut taxes?” a great big majority—63-27 percent—picked healthcare coverage. Majorities across all demographics, even non-college white men (53-38), say the priority is providing health care. So when the 15 million people CBO has projected will lose their coverage in 2018 alone, well that’s maybe not going to go so great for the GOP at the ballot box…..


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Oh Good, The President Just Tweeted About Why Working With Russia Against Americans Is A-OK…

President Trump just tweeted about the many trials and tribulations his son is enduring following his perfectly normal and innocent meeting with Russians about how take out Hillary Clinton.

Jay Caruso will have an editorial posted here shortly going in depth on this tweet, but before that, I have question. Would youhave gone to that meeting? I wouldn’t have.

One, I would refuse to take aid from Russkies. Sorry if that makes me sound old, but they are the bad guys and have been half over half a century. I wouldn’t have gone on principle, and I wouldn’t have trusted them anyway.

Speaking of trust, what kind of amateur move was this on the part of Don Jr.? Has he never worked in a high stakes job before? The Trumps, and their friends and fervent fans see a conspiracy behind every Democrat mailbox and pizza place. But he found no reason to distrust a meeting with Russia intended to collude in defeating his opponent?

And finally, I will use the opportunity of this post to give you a sample of something I’m working on for RedState. It’s a new type of newsletter for us, and last week I created a sample dialog. It’s a bit out of date, but pertinent here, so I’m pasting just a portion of it below.

This should have come up…

Hey, remember that time everyone spent months saying that Russia wanted to help Trump win the election, and then Trump and company denied that for months, and it was this huge thing that everyone has been talking about all day every day forever? Yeah, while that was going on, Donald Trump Jr. sat around not mentioning that he willingly attended a meeting for the express purpose of getting help from Russia to beat Hillary Clinton. You see what the problem is there, right? That’s the reason he met with them. While everyone was denying Russia wanted to help Trump win, Don Jr. 100% believed he had a meeting because Russia wanted Trump to win.

Feels like that should have come up. And no, it doesn’t matter if they actually were representing the government of Russia (which would be nearly impossible to prove. Part of spycraft is denying you did it…..


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Trump’s approval numbers hold @ around 40% of American’s…

Six months into his Presidency his numbers hover around 35% to 40% approval ( 55% to 60% Disapproval)  and  at 70% Approval  with his adopted parties Republicans….

FiveThirtyEight: “Trump’s early-term unpopularity is unusual. In the decades since World War II, the average first-term president before Trump had an approval rating of 62 percent on his 175th day in office, 23 percentage points higher than Trump’s. Only two other presidents have had an approval rating south of 50 percent at this point in their terms, and only Gerald Ford, at 35 percent, had an approval rating lower than Trump’s; Ford’s rating tumbled following his decision to pardon Richard Nixon.”

“Trump’s disapproval rating, however, is much higher than Ford’s, and Trump is the only president of whom a majority of Americans have said they disapprove of the job he is doing this soon after his inauguration. His net approval rating is 54 points below average and remains by far the lowest in the period for which we have data.”…..


A new Monmouth poll finds President Trump’s approval rating has held fairly steady, 39% to 52%, despite recent revelations that family members and campaign aids met with Russian operatives during the 2016 campaign.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “Trump’s job rating has basically held steady amid another round of supposedly damaging news. Most Americans disapprove of his son and other advisers meeting with a Russian lawyer during the 2016 campaign, but that hasn’t really moved the needle on any other public opinion metric related to the president.”

Also interesting: “About 4-in-10 Americans currently support impeaching Trump six months into his term, which is significantly higher than the number who called for Richard Nixon’s impeachment six months into that president’s second term.”….

Both Above from Politicalwire…


Trump’s net approval rating has declined by 14 points so far, which is about average historically.

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Trump Admin Ok’s 15,000 cross border workers visa’s…

Another example of Trump campaigning against labor primary FROM Mexico?

But making sure it comes across the border for jobs Americans won’t do….

In the end?

Donald Trump will NOT change the way things are…

The Department of Homeland Security on Monday announced a one-time increase of 15,000 additional visas for low-wage, seasonal workers for the remainder of this fiscal year, a seeming about-face from President Trump’s “Hire American” rhetoric, following heavy lobbying from the fisheries, hospitality and other industries that rely on temporary foreign workers.

The increase represents a 45 percent bump from the number of H-2B visas normally issued for the second half of the fiscal year, said senior Homeland Security officials in a call with reporters Monday.

The visas are for workers taking temporary jobs in the seafood, tourism, landscaping, construction and other seasonal industries — but not farm laborers.


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McConnell puts pressure on moderate GOP Senators to go along Healthcare Bill…

Right now the Senate Majority Leader has what appears to be TWO firm Republican ‘No’ votes against the Senate Republican Healthcare Bill….

Senator’s Collins of Maine and Paul of Kentucky….

Republicans cannot afford ANOTHER….

Several moderate Republican Senator’s SAY they are against the Bill which in the 2.0 version STILL is has the same issues they said they did NOT like still in place…Drastic Medicaid cuts and a Cruz amendment that would erase the pre-existing coverage of the present system…

But McConnell and others have tries to buy off those on the fence with ‘sweetener’s’ of the type that used to be called ‘earmarks’, which are special money aimed at specific programs in a political state ….

The process worked in the House to get passage on their bill…

Will it work in the Senate?

Only two senators—Susan Collins (R-ME) and Rand Paul (R-KY)—came out as firm no’s on the procedural motion to proceed to debate on the bill. If just one more joins them, the effort is dead.

But that third no vote is proving stubbornly elusive—despite the fact that in revising the bill, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell largely moved to appeal to his most right-wing senators, throwing moderates who had promised to protect Medicaid and people with pre-existing conditions under the bus.

The revisions pair more deregulation of the health care marketplace, largely via Sen. Ted Cruz’s controversial amendment, with a rollback of tax breaks for the wealthy and the allocation of more money to stabilize insurance markets and treat opioid addiction. But not only is the bill’s additional money counted multiple times to meet multiple needs, it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the hundreds of billions that will cut over time from Medicaid and tax credits for low-income and older Americans.

This makes things extremely awkward for senators like Dean Heller (R-NV), who just a few weeks ago blasted the legislation and demanded it be amended to either keep Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion intact or increase traditional Medicaid spending.

The new bill does neither—and Heller admitted Thursday that “Fundamentally, they haven’t changed” the legislation—yet he did not come out against it.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK).

And then there’s Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), who reportedly went off in a closed-door meeting with GOP leadership about the bill’s cuts to Medicaid and pleaded with them to leave the program alone, but would not say publicly how she plans to vote on the bill itself. Murkowksi has previously said she can’t vote for a bill that repeals Alaska’s Medicaid expansion, and can’t vote for a bill that defunds Planned Parenthood. The Senate’s health care bill does both.

Murkowski, however, will be shielded from some of the worst impacts of the Medicaid cuts by a carveout tucked into the bill specifically for her state. Dubbed the “Polar Payout” or “Klondike Kickback,” the provision would give Alaska hundreds of millions of dollars to help lower insurance premiums….


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Trump’s ‘Made in America’ while his family relies on oversea’s manufacturing….

The Washington Post takes a look at Trump Inc. usage of oversea’s companies labor while trying to sell America’s on his campaign push to buy American…

“This week the Trump administration will honor the amazing American workers and companies who have products that are made in America,” Helen Aguirre Ferré, the White House’s director of media affairs, told reporters at a briefing here Sunday. She said the United States sets “the world standard for quality and craftsmanship.”

For Trump, highlighting U.S.-made products is inconsistent with his practices as a businessman. For years, the Trump Organization has outsourced much of its product manufacturing, relying on a global network of factories in a dozen countries — including Bangladesh, China and Mexico — to make its clothing, home decor pieces and other items.

Similarly, the clothing line of Ivanka Trump, the president’s older daughter and a senior White House adviser, relies exclusively on foreign factories employing low-wage workers in countries such as Bangladesh, Indonesia and China, according to a recent Washington Post investigation…..


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Donald Trump has been President for Six Months…Open Thread for 7/16/17….

Actually ?

It will be six month on July 20, 2017….

Some of us didn’t think he’d get this far….

But he HAS muddled thru….

His numbers haven’t moved much…..

And the Russian questions still define his time in office….They won’t be put to bed until Robert Mueller hands down his call…..


Image result for Trump

I’m betting he doesn’t last for the whole four years….

We’ll see….

Trump’s election reflected many voters’ exasperation with the status quo and sense of permanent estrangement from some gilded clique of winners. He was their pyrrhic retort. How much hotter will their anger burn when they realize they got played?

I’m more likely to win a season of “The Bachelorette” than he is to build that incessantly promised wall. His professed disdain for Wall Street was a campaign-season pose, abandoned the minute he started assembling his administration. Health care that’s better, cheaper and more universal? Oh, please.

It’s possible that Trump’s fans will never blame him, because of one of his most self-serving and corrosive feats: the stirring of partisanship and distrust of institutions into the conviction that there’s no such thing as objective truth. There are only rival claims. There are always “alternative facts.” Charges of mere bias are the antiquated weapons of yesteryear; “fake news” is the new nullifier, and it’s a phrase so dear to him that his unprincipled acolytes are building on it. Last week a Trump adviser, Sebastian Gorka, lashed out at the “fake news industrial complex.” Trump reportedly swooned.

What happens to a democracy whose citizens not only lose common ground but also take a match to the idea of a common reality? Thanks in part to Trump, we may find out. He doesn’t care about civility or basic decency, and even if he did, he lacks the discipline to yoke his actions to any ideals. The Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik expressed it perfectly, telling me, “His presidency is what happens when you have road rage in the Oval Office.”….



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Five Thirty Eight explains WHY Democrats are actually doing better they they seem for 2018…

The political media has been concentrating on mentioning that Democrats have lost 5 of the last Special House  District races after Trump got into the White House….

But that’s NOT the WHOLE story of what has been happening….

Most pundits are strong on saying that Democrats ARE in a good place to retake the majority in US House of Representatives …..

The people over at Five Thirty Eight get down into bushes and explain how the Democrats are OVERperforming in places where Clinton lost votes relative to Obama…..

If we look at all the special elections, it’s interesting to note that Democrats this year have been outperforming their 2016 baseline most in the districts where Clinton underperformed Obama and least in the districts where Clinton outperformed Obama. The latter group tends to include more highly educated, suburban areas that traditionally voted Republican. These places may be growing bluer, but perhaps Clinton did as well as could be hoped for by a Democratic candidate for the time being. In the districts where Clinton didn’t do as well as Obama had, it’s possible that traditional Democratic voters who voted for Trump in 2016 may not be voting for Republicans in 2017.

Democrats are outperforming Clinton most in areas where she underperformed Obama

Percentage point change in margin in 2017 special elections compared with district’s 2016 election margin (relative to country overall)

Connecticut House District 68 -21
New Hampshire House District Hillsborough 44 0
Delaware Senate District 10 +6
Connecticut Senate District 32 +11
Connecticut House District 115 +12
South Carolina House District 84 +15
South Carolina House District 70 +15
Montana At-Large +17
South Carolina 5th Congressional District +17
Minnesota House District 32B +25
Iowa House District 89 +36
New York Assembly District 9 +41
Oklahoma House District 28 +50
Louisiana Senate District 2** +63
Average +21
Connecticut Senate District 2 -20
Georgia 6th Congressional District 0
Georgia Senate District 32 +2
South Carolina House District 48 +5
New Hampshire House District Carroll 6 +13
Tennessee House District 95 +14
California 34th Congressional District** +16
Kansas 4th Congressional District +23
Average +7

*Relative to how each did nationally.
**Democratic and Republican vote shares are cumulative, for all candidates of each respective party.
All numbers are rounded.


In the eight special-election districts where the district became more Democratic compared with the nation as a whole between 2012 and 2016, the shift to the Democrats in 2017 has averaged just 7 percentage points from the 2016 partisan lean. Georgia 6 is one of those eight. In the 14 districts where Clinton underperformed Obama, the special election margin shifted 21 points, on average, toward the Democrats.4 The South Carolina 5th Congressional District, where Democrat Archie Parnell nearly pulled off a stunning upset last week, is one of those.

So what to make of this data?

For starters, it suggests that Democrats should not give up on areas where Clinton did significantly worse than Obama did….



The above linked piece has few mentions of Trump, eh?


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House getting ready to forward a massive spending bill they know won’t fly….

The object is to let their members get a chance to include amendments that are their dream requests….

Trouble is?

Doing THAT means the entire bill package will never pass the Senate ….And THAT means ANOTHER piece of legislation that goes nowhere from a Congress that is specializing in such….

Oh, and there STILL is a sequester against a budge over spending ceiling t in effect….

House GOP leaders will decide next week whether to brave an ugly floor fight over a massive GOP spending bill — a proposal applauded by some rank-and-file Republicans but that risks embarrassment if it fails.

In a closed-door GOP conference meeting Friday morning, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy said all 12 appropriations bills will be finished in committee by the end of next week. Starting Monday, leadership will begin a tentative whip count on whether lawmakers would vote for a package before the August recess that combines all of those bills into one $1 trillion government funding bill.

The idea, first proposed by Rep. Tom Graves, a senior appropriator, is to give House Republicans a chance to pass a red-meat spending bill that will lay out GOP priorities. Though the bill would never pass the Senate in the face of Democratic opposition, the process would allow House Republicans to offer potentially hundreds of amendments, an exercise that excites members who are frustrated that they’ve had no input on how to fund the government.

“It’s actually been the consensus of the conference to get all this done before August,” Graves (R-Ga.) said upon emerging from conference Friday, optimistic that his idea will take. “We’re here to get our job done, and I’ll tell you, members are excited about the opportunity to put our priorities forward and advance it to the floor.

The strategy could open something of a Pandora’s box, however. Lawmakers would be required to vote on controversial amendments that could be used against them in their districts, from provisions on the Confederate flag to gay rights proposals that put them in bind. Democratic amendments chiding the administration for the Russia controversy are almost assured.

Perhaps more worrisome: The bill might fail on the floor, which would provoke another flood of damaging headlines about the GOP’s deep divisions and inability govern…..


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