Lets start with the Senate, where there is virtually NO chance of passage as the bill is currently written…
There WILL be adjustments by the Republicans…..
Will those adjustment’s be enough for GOP conservatives and the Senate?
1. House health-care bill can’t pass Senate w/o major changes. To my friends in House: pause, start over. Get it right, don’t get it fast.
Tom Cotton @TomCottonAR
3. What matters in long run is better, more affordable health care for Americans, NOT House leaders’ arbitrary legislative calendar.
While different factions of the GOP wrangle over the details of the newly unveiled ObamaCare repeal-and-replace plan, vulnerable Republican lawmakers face another choice: whether to talk about it at all.
Republicans facing challenging reelection races in 2018 have so far been largely silent on the legislation, which has sparked backlash from Democrats and conservative Republicans alike.
Nevada’s Dean Heller, the most vulnerable GOP senator up for reelection, has yet to comment on the House bill even as pressure mounts on him from both sides of the aisle.
Heller is the only senator facing reelection in a state that chose Hillary Clinton for president in November. Democrats have already set their eyes on him as a top target in a year when their own party will mostly be on defense, with 10 senators up for reelection in states President Trump won.
Following the release of the GOP healthcare legislation, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) called on Republican Senate candidates to break their silence and condemn the proposal.
“If Republican Senate candidates refuse to denounce this plan, it will be just another demonstration that they’re willing to push the agenda of the wealthy and well-connected at the expense of Americans who actually work for a living,” said DSCC spokeswoman Lauren Passalacqua.
Four GOP senators, including Cory Gardner (Colo.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), have already vowed in a letter to vote against any bill that affects the Medicaid expansion created by ObamaCare. The House GOP plan stops new enrollments in the Medicaid expansion in 2020….
….perry: Exactly! I think Nate is right: This all looks terrible right now, but the bill could still pass. Is that the consensus?
micah: I think so, yeah. (I don’t think we’ve ever reached consensus in a chat before.)
natesilver: Look, Republicans will get their act a little bit more together, partisanship will help at the margins, and maybe Trump can intimidate a few wanderers into supporting the bill. On the other hand, there are some big public relations blows yet to navigate, like the CBO score and whatever pushback they get from constituents at the spring recess.
I think the modal (most likely) scenario is that the House passes a more conservative bill than what’s on the table now and it gets stymied in the Senate.
perry: I think I agree with this, while not being sure what “stymied” in the Senate looks like.
natesilver: Yeah. It could die with a bang rather than a whimper, get filibustered, get ruled out of order by the parliamentarian, or lose on a floor vote. Lots of ways it could die. Or the Senate could gut the bill and do something token-ish that was actually fairly popular and dare the House to pass it in order to save face.
micah: OK — any final thoughts?
harry: This is just the beginning. Remember how long it took for the ACA to pass? It was long enough for Democrats to have 60 votes in the Senate when it started and then need reconciliation to pass the final parts because Scott Brown won the special election in Massachusetts.
natesilver: To me, it’s interesting that Obamacare sort of spontaneously became more popular the moment that Trump won the election. That’s suggestive to me that there isn’t much of a mandate for what the House bill might do and certainly not what the House Freedom Caucus’s version of a bill might do.
If the House bill is polling at, I dunno, 35 percent favorable and 51 percent unfavorable, then how long is its lifespan going to be?….
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