Doug Jones Is Just A Normal Polling Error Away From A Win In Alabama

…from FiveThirtyEight….whuich is hedging their bets,,,,

Things seem to be going Roy Moore’s way. President Trump endorsed him. The Republican National Committee is back to supporting him. And Moore, who has been accused of sexual contact with women when they were underaged, has led by an average of 3 percentage points in polls1 taken within 21 days of the Dec. 12 special Senate election in Alabama. The betting markets give Moore about an 80 percent chance of victory — roughly the same chance they gave Hillary Clinton just before the 2016 presidential election.

Before Election Day last year, we advised caution, however — polls aren’t perfect at even the best of times, Trump had an advantage in the Electoral College, and there were a lot of undecided voters. So what’s our advice heading into the Alabama election? Well, it’s the same — be cautious — but for slightly different reasons.

A look at all U.S. Senate election polls since 19982 shows that their average error — how far off the polls were from the actual election result — is more than a percentage point higher than the average error in presidential polling. Also, Alabama polls have been volatile, this is an off-cycle special election with difficult-to-predict turnout, and there haven’t been many top-quality pollsters surveying the Alabama race. So even though Moore is a favorite, Democrat Doug Jones is just a normal polling error away from winning. (Or, by the same token, Moore could win comfortably.)….

The bottom line is that with less than a week to go in the campaign, Moore seems to have the edge — but he’s far from a sure thing….

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26 Comments on "Doug Jones Is Just A Normal Polling Error Away From A Win In Alabama"

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🔴Zreebs
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No one in the Alabama Conservative focus group disagreed that Moore is a “good Christian”.

And how can someone who has been sexually assaulted herself believe that all of Moore’s accusers are lying?

I would use the word “disturbing” instead of “surprising”.

My Name Is jack
Guest

And it’s why Moore will win Tuesday.

My Name Is jack
Guest

I was a little surprised that some here seemed taken aback by the responses from the Luntz focus group.

What you saw was typical of many who comprise the “ base” of the southern Republican Party.

Some people here don’t want to face that fact.

Doesn’t change the reality.

🔴Zreebs
Guest
I’ve still been thinking about the Luntz interview. The most problematic part to me was the women who said she had been touched inappropriately accused all of Moore’s accusers of lying. Democrats really don’t have the equivalent of a Frank Luntz. He recognizes that words contain emotional meanings, and that we are not purely rational beings. And so he has been successful in getting the GOP to use words like “job creators” when talking about tax cuts, or “climate change” instead of global warming. Democrats… Read more »
Daniel G.
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Democrats NEED to win that Race on Tuesday if they want an outright & outside chance at a Senate Majority next year.

Scott p
Guest

Yes I’m not a big fan of Lutz usually but he did avgoodvjob of pushing back at these people. I agree, horrifying comments from these people.

🔴Zreebs
Guest

Thanks for sharing Scott – it was horrifying. I’m still shaken.

Congrats To Frank Lutz for a good interview. My opinion of him went up a tad.

Scott p
Guest

Politicalwire has a link to Frank Lutz interviewing Moore supporters. I suggest everyone watch or listen to it
One guy said in the late 70s “lots of mamas and daddies would be thrilled their 14 yr old girl was being hit on by the DA”. Another said the black voters of Alabama are “stupid”.
Deplorable is too good a word for these pieces of shit

Keith
Guest
Tough state of course, but I was encouraged by my phone banking yesterday. Over 100 people turned up and will be there through Election Day. I was calling into the suburbs of Montgomery to upscale Republicans with college degrees. No one told me they were voting for Moore, although I assume they are too embarrassed (just like one of our friends here) to say they are secretly for a child molester. But gotta keep that Senate majority. That’s why McConnell will never remove Moore if… Read more »
My Name Is jack
Guest

Your last sentence says it all.

Still, I’m sure we will be treated to some “sociological analysis” (in other words,justification by a Republican for the actions of his fellow”conservatives) of the “concerned” Republicans in Alabama and their “values.”

Scott p
Guest
I predicted Moore by 3. Of course I also thought the Virginiaxrace would be a nail biter and was pleasantly surprised when Northam took it in a landslide. . If Jones pulls this off I’ll be happily surprised as well. But he loses I won’t pontificate as to whether a less pro right to choose Democrat or black minister would have been able to win (because black Democrats win so many statewide races in the Deep South). I’ll simply chalk it up to some pretty… Read more »
My Name Is jack
Guest

I’ll eat possum and pretend it’s crow!

Scott p
Guest

I don’t imagine you’d get much meat from a crow. But people eat quail so.

🔴Zreebs
Guest

I know possum is eaten in some very rural parts of the south, and when I lived in Louisiana, nutria was eaten by some, and I enjoyed eating alligator when living down there. But I am not sure I ever met someone who ate crow?

My Name Is jack
Guest

I really hope I’m wrong and I will be more than happy to eat crow if I am.

But I don’t think Jones has a prayer .

Moore will win by at least four points and maybe more.