…from FiveThirtyEight….whuich is hedging their bets,,,,
Things seem to be going Roy Moore’s way. President Trump endorsed him. The Republican National Committee is back to supporting him. And Moore, who has been accused of sexual contact with women when they were underaged, has led by an average of 3 percentage points in polls1 taken within 21 days of the Dec. 12 special Senate election in Alabama. The betting markets give Moore about an 80 percent chance of victory — roughly the same chance they gave Hillary Clinton just before the 2016 presidential election.
Before Election Day last year, we advised caution, however — polls aren’t perfect at even the best of times, Trump had an advantage in the Electoral College, and there were a lot of undecided voters. So what’s our advice heading into the Alabama election? Well, it’s the same — be cautious — but for slightly different reasons.
A look at all U.S. Senate election polls since 19982 shows that their average error — how far off the polls were from the actual election result — is more than a percentage point higher than the average error in presidential polling. Also, Alabama polls have been volatile, this is an off-cycle special election with difficult-to-predict turnout, and there haven’t been many top-quality pollsters surveying the Alabama race. So even though Moore is a favorite, Democrat Doug Jones is just a normal polling error away from winning. (Or, by the same token, Moore could win comfortably.)….
The bottom line is that with less than a week to go in the campaign, Moore seems to have the edge — but he’s far from a sure thing….