Sabato’s updated House rating changes favor Democrats next year

Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato’s Crystal Ball gives his sites latest look at next years House midterm races….

He has 25 changes…..

Most help the Democrats who could be getting a wave to retake the majority in the House of Representatives and return Nancy Pelosi to the Speakership….Something that would slam a break on the Grand Ole Parties activities….

The consensus among most political pundits is that Democrats WILL achieve significant House gains next year…

And these factor’s…..

Trump has historically low approval ratings….

The generic ballot polls strongly favor Democrats over Republicans in House races…

The majority held Congress is pushing for unpopular legislation about healthcare, taxes and immigration…

Democrats seem to be making a comeback in locals and state races…

In the aftermath of the 2014 midterm election, when the party that didn’t hold the White House (the Republicans) gained ground in the House for the 36th time in 39 midterms since the Civil War, I wrote the following in the Center for Politics’ postmortem on the election, The Surge:

Practically speaking, though, House Democrats might have to root for the other party in the 2016 presidential race. Why? Because given what we know about midterm elections almost always going against the president’s party in the House, perhaps the next best chance for the Democrats to win the House will be in 2018 — if a Republican is in the White House.

We didn’t see many House Democrats rooting for Donald Trump to win the general election in 2016, but the simple fact of his election made a Democratic House takeover much more likely in the 2018 midterm just because of the longstanding trend for the presidential party to lose ground in the House. The electorate often uses the midterm to put a check on the executive, particularly if that executive is unpopular. “The midterm election pattern,” writes Andrew Busch in his study of midterm elections, Horses in Midstream, “virtually guarantees that the president’s party will be hurt at regular intervals. The extent of that damage may vary considerably, but the fact of it rarely does.”

We know we’ve been a broken record on the point of the presidential party midterm penalty, but it is so well-established that it merits frequent mention. Obviously, the world changed considerably when President Trump won the White House, and the political burden of holding the presidency shifted from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party when that happened.

We’re a little bit past the halfway point between the last national election, in 2016, and the next national election, in 2018. In that time, the Democrats’ chances of winning the House have only seemed to rise, based on a number of indicators. Those are….


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