Five Thirty Eight explains WHY Democrats are actually doing better they they seem for 2018…

The political media has been concentrating on mentioning that Democrats have lost 5 of the last Special House  District races after Trump got into the White House….

But that’s NOT the WHOLE story of what has been happening….

Most pundits are strong on saying that Democrats ARE in a good place to retake the majority in US House of Representatives …..

The people over at Five Thirty Eight get down into bushes and explain how the Democrats are OVERperforming in places where Clinton lost votes relative to Obama…..

If we look at all the special elections, it’s interesting to note that Democrats this year have been outperforming their 2016 baseline most in the districts where Clinton underperformed Obama and least in the districts where Clinton outperformed Obama. The latter group tends to include more highly educated, suburban areas that traditionally voted Republican. These places may be growing bluer, but perhaps Clinton did as well as could be hoped for by a Democratic candidate for the time being. In the districts where Clinton didn’t do as well as Obama had, it’s possible that traditional Democratic voters who voted for Trump in 2016 may not be voting for Republicans in 2017.

Democrats are outperforming Clinton most in areas where she underperformed Obama

Percentage point change in margin in 2017 special elections compared with district’s 2016 election margin (relative to country overall)

WHERE CLINTON DID WORSE THAN OBAMA* DEM. SWING FROM 2016
Connecticut House District 68 -21
New Hampshire House District Hillsborough 44 0
Delaware Senate District 10 +6
Connecticut Senate District 32 +11
Connecticut House District 115 +12
South Carolina House District 84 +15
South Carolina House District 70 +15
Montana At-Large +17
South Carolina 5th Congressional District +17
Minnesota House District 32B +25
Iowa House District 89 +36
New York Assembly District 9 +41
Oklahoma House District 28 +50
Louisiana Senate District 2** +63
Average +21
WHERE CLINTON DID BETTER THAN OBAMA* DEM. SWING FROM 2016
Connecticut Senate District 2 -20
Georgia 6th Congressional District 0
Georgia Senate District 32 +2
South Carolina House District 48 +5
New Hampshire House District Carroll 6 +13
Tennessee House District 95 +14
California 34th Congressional District** +16
Kansas 4th Congressional District +23
Average +7

*Relative to how each did nationally.
**Democratic and Republican vote shares are cumulative, for all candidates of each respective party.
All numbers are rounded.

SOURCES: SECRETARIES OF STATE, DAILY KOS ELECTIONS

In the eight special-election districts where the district became more Democratic compared with the nation as a whole between 2012 and 2016, the shift to the Democrats in 2017 has averaged just 7 percentage points from the 2016 partisan lean. Georgia 6 is one of those eight. In the 14 districts where Clinton underperformed Obama, the special election margin shifted 21 points, on average, toward the Democrats.4 The South Carolina 5th Congressional District, where Democrat Archie Parnell nearly pulled off a stunning upset last week, is one of those.

So what to make of this data?

For starters, it suggests that Democrats should not give up on areas where Clinton did significantly worse than Obama did….

More….

Note….

The above linked piece has few mentions of Trump, eh?

 

Share on Facebook