Democrat Jon Ossoff ‘s win was beter than expected in GA-06 but there will be a run-off…

In Red State Georgia  Jon Ossoff was expected to get around 45 to 46% of the vote in the special election to replace Tom Price who went to Trump’s Admin….

Image result for jon ossoff win

Ossoff did  better….

But didn’t get the 50% of the vote he needed to win the Congressional House seat outright…

So there will be a run-off second election on June 20th….

Here’s the FiveThirty Eight look at this…

The result is consistent with a pro-Democratic national environment

There’s some chatter out there that Ossoff’s showing is a bad sign for Democrats. He didn’t clear 50 percent, they say, and he barely improved on Clinton’s performance in Georgia 6.

I think that’s a flawed argument.

For one, Clinton had already greatly improved on previous Democrats’ performance in Georgia 6. She lost to Trump there by only 1.5 percentage points. Former President Barack Obama lost the district by 23 points in 2012, as did Democratic congressional candidate Rodney Stooksbury in 2016.

So if you’re just looking at the 2016 presidential result as your benchmark you’re probably missing something. Instead, our best estimate of the partisan lean of a district is to take a weighted average2 of its past two presidential election results. By that measure, a Democrat would be expected to lose Georgia 6 by 9.5 percentage points in a neutral national environment (one in which the two parties fought to a tie nationally). Democrats did far better than that on Tuesday, losing by 2 points. The Democratic candidates combined took 49 percent to the Republicans’ 51 percent….

More…

image….fivethirtyeight.com

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42 thoughts on “Democrat Jon Ossoff ‘s win was beter than expected in GA-06 but there will be a run-off…”

  1. Congrats to Ossoff on “doing better than expected” by about a point or two or “covering the spread” (Trump probably helped him do it).

    All the political gamblers who made money on him getting above 46% should probably be happy, but the bottom line is that Ossoff and his party tried to get him elected to Congress outright last night and did not and now most people expect this particular district is no longer in play, either in June, or 2018 (would have been a different story had the Trump-loving Gray advanced) and this is money spent that was effectively wasted, same as Kansas.

    Give it a shot in Montana next. Why not?

  2. Ossoff did not win. Handel did not win. The rules are either could have won last night but they did not. Rules matter.

    What I am saying is that Handel will win in June, and I think even jamesb agrees with that.

  3. You seem to have no concept of proportion.

    Again, the total Republican vote was 51% and the total Democrat vote was 49%. Trump is the reason it was that close.

    Now, there are two candidates that will be starting from scratch in a general election. Moral victories will not mean anything at that point.

  4. Handel will be put in some difficult positions vis a vis Trump in the next two months.

    She pretty much ignored him up till now, writing off the Grifter in Chief’s gung ho followers. She’ll need them to beat Ossof.
    And I imagine if she is put in a position whwre she says something bad about him the tweets will fly.

  5. I don’t think it will be too much of an issue. Gray already endorsed her. Some Trumpists will stay home, but she is the type of traditional suburban Republican who will get votes that even Clinton took against Trump last year. Handel will probably mention Trump very little and pivot to going after her opponent.

    It will be harder for Ossoff to avoid being tied to Pelosi and Hollywood money.

  6. Ossoff probably has had his chance and missed by that much.

    The positive factor for the Republicans is that their candidate is female.

    Of course, many things can happen by June.

  7. Last night the Gray folks were not interested in party unity they were silent when Gray told his supporters to back Handel, and I agree with Scott, Handel is in a very difficult situation with her “support” for Trump.

    The election will be a referendum on Trump and Handel’s failed jobs at Susan G. Komen and as Secretary of State.

    How many elections has she already lost? She went into last night with total name recognition and still could only manage 20%.

    Four months ago the “experts” were predicting a runoff between Handel and Gray, and the Democrat came out on top in a District that hasn’t elected a Democrat in almost 40 years. Think about that as everyone spins around trying to predict what will happen.

    I, for one, plan on taking President Obama’s advice. I plan to get out from behind my keyboard and raise more money for Jon. This household (both husbands) came through bigly this morning. And, Handel’s position on gay rights will help me raise even more money.

    Have a good day everyone!

  8. The Georgia Runoff Will Be Very Competitive

    irst Read: “Looking ahead to the June 20 runoff in GA-6, it’s going to be very competitive. Just compare Ossoff’s percentage (48.1%) with the combined percentage of the Top 4 GOP candidates (48.2%). Or compare the total percentage for all Democrats (48.9%), versus the percentage for all 11 Republicans in the field (51%). Still, with Ossoff getting 48% last night, you might give him the very slight edge heading into the runoff.”….

    More @ https://politicalwire.com/2017/04/19/georgia-runoff-will-competitive/

  9. In fact there is video of Handel being asked if she would welcome Trump’s support…

    She say’s yes after a kinda bewildered pause….

    He called her last night….

  10. CG and Daniel?
    Be afraid….

    …twitter…

    Daily Kos Elections‏ @DKElections
    Daily Kos Elections Retweeted Daily Kos Elections
    Undecideds in a red district almost always go Republican. This time, they went to the Democrat. When’s the last time you saw that? Amazing.

  11. Handel will come under the microscope….

    …even months before the primary, Democratic operatives were telling me privately that Handel was the Republican against whom they would fare the best. CNN’s Eric Bradner explains: “Handel lost a 2010 race for governor and a 2014 Republican Senate primary and was accused of overspending as a county commissioner in a 2017 jungle primary attack ad from the conservative Club for Growth. She was hammered by Republican foes in the runoff who aligned themselves with Trump — raising the prospect that those Trump voters could skip the runoff entirely. Handel’s efforts as secretary of state to purge Georgia’s voter rolls by requiring voters to prove their citizenship led to fights with the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division. … Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez — who led the Civil Rights Division during Barack Obama’s first term — said voters would hear ‘a lot’ about Handel’s efforts to require voters to prove their citizenship.”…

    More @ http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/18/politics/georgia-house-6th-special-election-jon-ossoff/index.html?wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1

  12. She’s never lost a general election and did very well in this district during her statewide nomination runs. It’s comparing apples to oranges. Is Ossoff going to run to her right as some kind of good ole’ boy?

    She lost those because she struggled in the rural areas against Republican opponents who represented them. Had she done a little better there against Nathan Deal, she would be Governor of Georgia right now. The 6th district is not rural. Unless she commits some major gaffe, I truly do not think she has anything to worry about in this runoff.

  13. I imagine there will be a lot of Republican and Republican leaning voters who skipped voting in this round because they assumed it would go to a runoff, and they figured it would be a waste of time to vote twice, but will be voting in June.

    I am changing my projection of Tossup (R) to Leans R.

    The more the left tries to nationalize the race, the more it is going to help Handel. Unless she suddenly does a 180 and starts politically hugging Donald Trump. If so, she will get what she deserves.

  14. I don’t know about”hugging” Donald Trump but,obviously, if elected, she will vote with the leader of her party,President Trump over Ninety percent of the time.

    Such, of course, would be unsurprising .

    She is a Republican.He is a Republican.

    This little minuet being played by you and other Republicans as to your alleged separation from the leader of your party is getting rather old.

    Oh I’ve read your and others snarky remarks and so forth but the bottom line is,if one supports Congressional Republicans then one is,in effect, supporting President Trump.

    Nothing wrong with that necessarily, a Republican supporting a Republican President would seem normal.

    So isn’t it time various and sundry Republicans who insist that they are not”for” Trump drop the silly pretense.

    OK, you do not support him 100% of the time, just 90%.

    I mean really?

  15. She’s not seen as a Trump Republican. She’s been around in that area long before he ran. I do not know if she even voted for him (There was another GOP candidate in the field who was a legit “Never Trump” person). On the contrary, there were other Republicans in the field, Gray in particular, who ran as Trump’s guy.

    Ossoff will struggle to claim how he would part ways with Pelosi. If it’s really a Trump vs. Pelosi proxy battle there in that district, the Democrats probably lose.

    She should tell him to stay away though. Romney would be more effective there.

  16. Whereas she can point to independence in a district that Trump narrowly won, it is a district that Obama lost, bigly, and Ossoff was going out of his way last night to gesticulate and hand gesture and try to fake his vocal cadence so he can try to look and sound exactly like Obama (he is tall and lanky at least) and I don’t know how effective that would be.

    Ossoff is not an A list candidate by far.

  17. I reiterate.

    I don’t care what modifier she (or you) want to put in front of what you are.

    The bottom line is that as a REPUBLICAN she will like NINETY percent of the time support the REPUBLICAN President,Donald Trump.

    And those where vote for her will implicitly be voting for a candidate who will support President Trump on almost every issue.

    Like I say, this little “game” that is being played is really getting old.

    Voting for a Republican for Congress is voting for someone who is going to support the policies and programs of Donald Trump .

    Anyone claiming otherwise is being intellectually dishonest.

  18. I don’t know how you come up with 90. She will support his positions where she agrees and vote against his positions when she doesn’t. I think in that district though, even if people don’t like Trump personally, they would take someone who would agree with the Republican position 90 percent of the time as opposed to 10. Can Ossoff claim to be anything other than a very liberal Democrat (who doesn’t even live in the district?)

    There is the Separation of Powers though and somebody like me who does not agree with a lot of what is going on in the Trump Administration would not understand why putting a Pelosi puppet in office is going to make Trump do anything better.

  19. I’ve estimated for you before that I would probably side with Trump’s stated positions a little less than 50 percent of the time. That still makes me closer to a Republican though than a Democrat, and I think the same applies to Handel, even though I understand she has to play the balancing act publicly as a Republican candidate.

    She was involved in politics though back when Trump was a Clinton supporting self-professed liberal Democrat. If anything he changed to back her positions, not vice versa. I do not see her echoing his 2016 themes though.

    Politically speaking, Trump is in a better place now than he was two weeks ago, although he’s starting to act the fool again on Twitter, so who knows how long that will last.

  20. Maybe we can find some bipartisan agreement here in being glad that Bill O’Reilly has been fired.

  21. I don’t care much.

    A Republican speaking nightly to other Republicans on a Republican broadcasting network?

    Big deal.

    There will be another Republican to take his place.

    While OReillys Republican fans will simply follow him in his next endeavor.

  22. O’Reilly always said he wasn’t a Republican and Republicans sucked as much as Democrats. They will give the slot to someone who will follow in that regard, Tucker Carlson.

  23. You are half right, neither O’Reilly nor Trump are good people. But they are both Republicans.

  24. He said he wasn’t (just like james likes to point out that Bernie is not a Democrat.) I believe he is registered as an Independent in New York, but it doesn’t matter. Being a leech or just a buffoon in general knows no party labels.

  25. Oh Good God.

    Claiming Bill OReillys isn’t a Republican is just plain goofy.

    Gee I didn’t know you took James so seriously as a standard to be guided by.

    I’ll remember that.

    OReilly was actually smoked out years ago by Al Franken in his book, Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them.As Bill steadfastly maintained he was an”independent” Franken simply pulled his voters Registration card New York .It showed that OReilly registered as a Republican.When confronted by Franken,OReilly ,in true scumbag fashion, claimed that a “clerk” must have written it in.

    Yeah that’s probably what happened!

  26. Gee and citing Wikipedia too.

    Hell OReilly probably wrote those lines to see what suckas would regurgitate them…

    And we have a winna!

  27. O’Reilly crimes are the same regardless of his paetisan identity. He’d be a damn pig if he were a liberal Democrat too.
    But he’s not, he is a conservative Republican.
    Oh FOX loved his self proclaimed “independent” status. It tied in with the fair and balanced bs. Just like they loved pulling up that old cracker Zell Miller to bad mouth Democrats and they lived putting a big bold D after his name. No matter what they called themselves they all agreed with REPUBLICANS

  28. So O’Reilly IS a Republican…..
    Sanders ain’t a Democrat….
    I really wouldn’t mention them in the same sentence…..

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