Nate Silver and the Bookies STILL have Hillary winning….

So do most of us….

But THAT sure does make a LOT of us uneasy , siince THAT was the story last time and she DID NOT even get the nomination….

With so many candidates and so long to go until next November, we’re going to make plenty of bad predictions over the course of the 2016 campaign. But one of our very first predictions about 2016, one we made almost three years ago, has already proven true.

“If [Hillary] Clinton runs for president in 2016, one thing is almost certain,” I wrote back in December 2012, at a time when polls showed about 65 percent of Americans had a favorable view of Clinton, “she won’t be as popular as she is right now.” I added: “In an era of intense partisanship, there is a relatively low ceiling (and perhaps also a relatively high floor) on the favorability ratings that any politician can have in the most active stages of a presidential campaign.”

Clinton’s favorability rating has, in fact, fallen quite a lot, to an average of about 42 percent favorable and 48 percent unfavorable in recent polls.

Numbers like those, when combined with the “emailgate” scandal and Sen. Bernie Sanders’s position in the polls (he’s now running very close to Clinton in New Hampshire, although not in Iowa or nationally), have a lot of commentators saying Clinton’s campaign has had an unexpectedly rough start. “Hillary is probable, but no longer inevitable,” wrote David Horsey of the Los Angeles Times, assessing her chances to win the nomination.

Horsey is right to deal in probabilities rather than certainties. Personally, I give Clinton about an 85 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. (The general election is a whole different story.) That’s a pinch higher than betting markets, which put her chances at 75 to 80 percent.

But those betting markets, unlike some pundits, haven’t changed their assessment of Clinton much. In the markets, her probability of winning the nomination is still close to its all-time high and has barely budged in the past few months, rarely falling much below 75 percent…


11 thoughts on “Nate Silver and the Bookies STILL have Hillary winning….”

  1. Welcome back Daniel, but as Zreebs so correctly points out, you should probably check before you start quoting polling numbers again (especially if you are going to stay around for this time), because you have always had problems with those pesky things (remember Florida, Virginia, and your most famous prediction of all, Obama will lose the South Carolina primary). After all, just look at Bill’s negatives going into the 92 primary season.

    I also suspect Daniel has been reading Walker’s campaign memo, the one that says “I will rise as Trump falls” – that would be the same campaign memo that Cruz, Carson, Bush, Huckabee, and Santorum are now sending to their fundraising group. It is much more realistic to assume that Cruz would benefit from Trump’s assumed demise than Scott “I got kicked out of college” Walker (especially when the primaries move to the South).

  2. Daniel, I don’t think your comment “Democrats now view her 44 % favorable / 53 % Unfavorable” is correct. You probably meant to say “Voters” instead of “Democrats”.

    Yeah, Hillary’s numbers were at unsustainably high levels a year ago, but who would have expected her numbers to be at a 10 year low five months before the first primary? (I haven’t checked, but I assume that Daniel is correct in that assertion.)

    1. Yea Nate and the Bookies are ALL wrong…

      The Donald Trump lemmings DEFINately have it Right?

      Yea, few if any believe the guy will last?

      Makes sense to me…

  3. Zreebs,

    Hillarys Favorables have fallen dramatically…

    Democrats now view her 44 % favorable / 53 % Unfavorable….that’s her lowest in 10 years.

    CNN also asked Voters a Question regarding the eMail thing:

    56 % say she did something wrong / 39 % say she didn’t do anything wrong.

  4. Fox News Poll conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). Aug. 11-13, 2015. N=1,008 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.

    “If the 2016 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican [see below]?”

    47% – 40% Fiorina (45-39 in June; 49-37 in May)
    47% – 42% Trump (51-34 in June)
    44% – 46% Rubio (45-44, 47-43, 46-42 and 47-45 June to March, respectively)
    42% – 44% Bush (43-43, 44-45, 45-41, 45-45, June to March; 48-43 Jan.; 49-42 Dec.; 52-49 July’14…)

    “How would you vote if the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, [see below], the Republican, and Donald Trump, an independent?”

    42 – 25 Trump – 24 Fiorina
    42 – 22 Trump – 30 Rubio
    40 – 23 Trump – 29 Bush

    Corrections welcome.

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