Open Thread for August 17, 2015..The Dog days of a Trump Summer….

Why NOT Trump?

That’s what a LOT of Republicans are telling pollsters….

The Republican 2016 Presidential feild is split RIGHT NOW mostly between three people….

Donald Trump…..Ben Carson and Ted Cruz…..

Two of these guys are NOT certified politicians with being elected to public office….

The last one just got there a bit more than a year ago….

None of them get much more than 20% of the polling numbers….

But Trump gets about 10% more than the other guys….

The establishment Republicans wake up every morning and have to be shaking their heads at how their party is being overun by people who haven’t gone along with THEIR program and paiid their dues….

All this after Republicans tranced the Democrats last year in mid-terme elections and thought they could pat themselves on the back….

Nope….

With Ted Cruz pushing the party to get MORE to the Right….

And Donald Trump attacking EVERYONE ……

And Ben Carson doing well by saying little if nothing…..

The Republican’s are stuck watching American’s BIGGEST entertainment show go op and On and ON at the the parties exspense…

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126 thoughts on “Open Thread for August 17, 2015..The Dog days of a Trump Summer….”

  1. The Obama Amin has approved a request by Shell Oil to drill in the Artic ….
    Interesting
    The price of crude oil is so low that energy companies are laying off people from drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and North Dakota

  2. As the Republican field moves inevitably Rightward,Jeb Bush called Common Core,”poisonous” at the Iowa State Fair.

    Bush”s support of his brothers program has been used by the media to portray him as some kind of “moderate.” He never was.While his rehetoric is less harsh ,his issue stands are pretty standard Right Wing.Except for immigration (and with his change on Common Core one wonders if a shift on this is not in the offing) ,there is really litgle difference between his stands than say Ted Cruz’s .

  3. Remember how the GOP “autopsy” after the 2012 election to address the anemic 27% Latino support?

    Well in Aug 2015 the GOP answer is to amend the Constitution to end birthright citizenship.

    Unbelievable!

  4. I had said in the past that my position on immigration was closer to the Republicans than Democrats. In general, I do feel we need to control the border, and I do not agree with a path to citizenship for everyone here illegally. But, all people people born in this country must continue to have a right to citizenship. It is a frightening prospect to think that some people in this country might not be a citizen of ANY country, and we must never be the cause of that problem.

  5. Besides a lot of talk,I would be interested in what actual steps the Republicans have taken to control the border.

    The most obvious solution,of course, is to eliminate the reason most people come and that is to work.Most find jobs with businesses ,mainly construction, landscaping and restaurants.

    I’m sure most of the owners of these type businesses are Democrats.

  6. Most polling I have seen shows that ending birthright citizenship commands majority support among Republicans.

    Sen. Jefferson Davis Sessions(R-Ala) said yesterday he supports Trumps plan.

    Regardless of Republican rhetoric,it would be extremely difficult to amend the Constitution to do do.

    As usual,the Republicans engage in useless talk to appeal to the emotional nativism of their voters.

  7. I see a greater chance of a Santorum presidency than I see that we would amend the constitution to end birthright citizenship.

  8. There are 21,000 Border Patrol cops….
    Only the NYPD is larger…

    There ARE fences and walls….

    The number of people crossing the Southern bordre has actually dropped by ONE MILLION as of this Spring/Summer

    The cost is around $12B a year….

    Donald Trump wants to build ANOTHER wall?
    Who is gonna pay for it?
    That is even when the number of bordre crossing is DECLINING….

  9. Random thought…..
    Looks the person who brought up Kasich here might be in line for some props
    Even if the guy is kinda rough around the edges…

  10. Oh and I KNOW Jack doesn’t believe that there are ANY moderate Republicans
    But Bush and Kasich is gonna be ALL about them moderate Republicans….
    Especially the ones for Super Tuesday and afterwards…

  11. Uh that would be me James.

    I brought up Kasich months ago.

    You?

    Said he didn’t have a chance.

  12. James,

    You’re aware that Seven of the Twelve states voting on Super Tiesday are southern states aren’t you?

    Tell us about all the “moderate”Republican voters in those states.

  13. As I mentioned the other week the Southern states sealed the deal in the nominating contests for Jeb’s dad and brother (as well as Dole in 1996)

    But I have a hard time seeing him sweep the region next year.

    Is the South no longer a firewall for the Republican establishment?

  14. That’s the big question?

    I think it depends on who is still standing by then.

    I would imagine that about half the present field will have been winnowed out and, perhaps ,Bush or Kasich would have emerged as the Establishment alternative.

    If they both remain as viable candidates however, then both may be in trouble in these southern states which will likely have a far more conservative electorate than the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

  15. When you say conservative of a state’s Republican primary electorate, I think it depends on the issue. On race and immigration, the Southern states would be significantly more conservative than NH and Iowa Republicans.

    On defense, foreign policy and national security, they’d probably be about the same; same, no doubt, for economics, welfare and social insurance.

    On other social issues, it probably depends on the issue (abortion, drugs, gay rights, guns).

  16. No I’m saying that on almost every issue southern Republicans as a whole are more conservative than their brethren in NH and Iowa.

  17. Also to reiterate,I find nothing particularly “moderate” about either Bush or Kasich.

    Establishment?Yes

    Less fiery rhetoric?Yes

    But on most issues?They are fairly doctrinaire CONSERVATIVES.

  18. Two other supposed Republican “moderates” SC Sen. Lindsay Graham and Chris Christie have now weighed in on ending Birthright Citizenship.

    Graham has joined Trump in saying it should be ended,while Christie cowardly proclaims it should be “re examined.”(whatever the Hell that means)

    Ah these Republican “moderates.”

  19. I think Bush is merely pandering to the Right Wing which his advisors have told him will dominate these early primaries.

  20. Agreed on Bush just like Hillary for the left….
    Common Core support was strong from him up to now…
    And his fellow Conservatives held it against him…

  21. 449 days to the November 2016 Presidential Election

    29 days to next GOP Debate

    56 days to first Democratic Debate

  22. Things ARE gonna bounce around but a new CNN GOP nomination poll has Bush still in second place….

    2016 Republican Presidential Nomination CNN/ORC

    Trump 24, Bush 13, Carson 9, Walker 8, Rubio 8, Cruz 5, Fiorina 5, Paul 6, Kasich 5, Huckabee 4, Christie 3, Perry 2, Santorum 1, Jindal 0, Graham 0 Trump +11

    More @ http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/08/17/rel8a.-.gop.2016.pdf

    (Trump gains 6% pts…Bush loses 2% points from last CNN poll)

    Trump STILL can’t break the 25% mark….

  23. The NBC News site, First Read ,claims that in order to have Legitimate shot at winning the 2016 election ,Republicans MUST win 35% of the Hispanic vote.

    I don’t know if I agree with that,but, if that is correct,then,I believe that the Election is effectively decided.

    Based on what is now going on in the Republican race and the damage it has done and continues to do to Republican prospects among Hispanics,I don’t believe they can obtain that amount of the Hispanic vote.

  24. Republicans were going to have a hard enough time superceding Romney’s 27% Hispanic support without the ridiculous talk of changing the Constitution to end birthright citizenship.

    Now? They’ll be lucky to hit 20% if this talk continues.

    This birthright stuff jyst solidifies the feeling among Hispanics that Republicans really don’t care for them as a group.

    Oh, but Jeb Bush’s wife is Mexican. That should makebit all better

  25. I just posted something , I don’t remember if its’ 538 or Upshot that makes that figure more like 40%+….

    You’re right….

    Trump IS destroying the 2016 GOPer’s chances against the Democrats….
    Maybe that will leak down ballot…

  26. It really says a lot about the Republican mentality that they believe that they can ,in effect, engage in this rabid know nothing type nativism and let’s make no mistake,this is far beyond a”policy difference,”

    This is about some fairly vicious ,deep seated anti Hispanic feelings being now exhibited by the so called ” base” of the Republican Party

    That they insultingly feel that if they nominate Jeb Bush ,who is married to a Mexican ,everything will be forgiven and ok.

  27. It’s the same mentality evident when they trot out Ben Carson, Herman Cain or Alan Keyes to a 99% white audience and have them compare universal health care or abortion to slavery and then get indignant that the majority of African Americans aren’t cool with it.

  28. Yeh and what’s even worse they really don’t don’t understand why they’re not.

    With Minorities, Republicans are TOTALLY clueless.

    This election could be a watershed .

    If the Republican lose it?

    It’s difficult to see them making a case for winning another presidential election in the near future .I suspect that ,rather than curb their increasingly shrill,Whitecentric philosophy , you will see a national move by them to adjust the Electoral College to EC votes by Congressional District to take advantage of their racial gerrymandering.

  29. I forced myself to watch his town hall tonight as I ran on the treadmill and almost threw up. He is beyond xenophobic – a vile, racist little man with a stupid comb over. His latest – repeal the 14th amendment.

  30. Trump is certainly the front runner. I was ridiculed by our departed friend from Illinois for calling him that not long ago.

    But this didn’t happen by accident. For a generation Republicans have used talk radio and FOX News to build an angry white base to do the party’s bidding. Well now one of them wants to run the show. It was bound to happen eventually. And it’s rubbing off on the other candidates too, making them all less appealing to the growing minority vote.

    Ben Carson, who is in 2nd place in many polls, suggests we use drones to patrol and bomb the border.

    Scott Walker–once the happy medium tea party/establishment hybrid candidate is floundering and has taken to aping Trump now too.

  31. Recall how in 2012, people like Herman Caine and Michelle Bachman would take the lead In the race, only to make a foolish comment and fall back down. For example, What killed Bachmann was a comment on vaccinations – a comment that is minor by Trump standards. But Republicans either cheered or were silent when Trump talked about how his investigators uncovered stuff about Obama’s birth that “you wouldn’t believe”. Republicans can now say all sorts of right wing s*** without being attacked by other Republicans. It has become so commonplace that even establishment Republicans say off the wall comments to make themselves feel better. ” Benghazi was a scandal”, “Trump is really a Democratic plant in the a Republican Party”. Few in that party are saying “Enough of this crazy talk” And so Republicans are finding that it is hard to start doing that now. Take Jeb Bush as an example. Trump keeps calling Bush stupid and incompetent, yet Bush is still afraid to fire back for fear of angering Trump’s base. The GOP has some serious issues, and fixing the party can’t be accomplished without a civil war within their party.

    so now the base of the Republican Party is fed up and they are no longer listening to Republican establishment candidates.

  32. Keith….

    I’m beginning to get boored of the whole Donald Trump thing….

    Really….

    When are others going to?

  33. How right you are Scott….

    They walked themselves into this…Now the Grand Ole Party is getting upended by entertainment act that has a growing cloud….(The media loves flash…ANY FLASH)

    Up to 25% of the GOPer’s have lost their bearings and will follow this guy…

    You know what?

    It isn’t amazing….

    It’s a payback…

  34. Morning!

    Everyone who believes Donald Trump will be the Republican Nominee for President of the United States needs to get their head examined. He won’t.

    The 3-O-Pac Polls in FL, OH and PA are butal for presumptive Democratic Nominee Hillary Clinton. In all 3 States 6 in 10 Registered Voters now say Hillary isn’t honest & trustworthy.

    What’s even more striking despite doing very poorly currently in Iowa & NH Fl Senator Marco Rubio has the highest Favorables among Republicans YEP EVEN higher than Jeb Bush in Florida.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2271

    NBC was right when they said Marco Rubio has still the highest upside among Republicans in this Race. Stop counting him out.

  35. Rubio is a media favorite but still performing horribly among potential GOP primary voters

    Maybe he’ll bounce back but he always seems to lose his luster with the Republican base after a few months. It happened after he initially won his Senate seat and was hailed as the great Hispanic hope in the GOP and it happened again after his SOTU response.

  36. Yes, Of course it is possible that Trump can be elected President. Highly unlikely, but possible.

    Best chance would be if the GOP field narrows to no less than three major candidates and Trump wins the nomination. He wins the general election thanks to a currently unknown Hillary scandal.

  37. Well, unlike some candidates (such as Hillary) he is getting better on the stump, and he is not only in first by a wide margin, but he also leads among Republicans who say he is their second choice.

  38. Apparently Bush, Rubio and Walker are all going to go negative on tbe air against Trump after Labor Day.

    Up til now that tactic has only backfired (see the near dead candidacies of Perry and Graham) but these guys probably have no other options. If they dont show they can eventually knock off Trump the GOP money men will start looking for a late entry candidate who can.

  39. …twitter….

    CSPAN ‏@cspan
    “I wish I [Carter] had sent 1 more helicopter to get the hostages & we would have rescued them & I would’ve been reelected.”

  40. James, the only way I could see it happening is under Zreebs scenario.

    And even then I think there would be a massive GOTV drive from Latinos to push the Democrat over the top, even if it were a wounded nominee.

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