Open Thread for August 17, 2015..The Dog days of a Trump Summer….

Why NOT Trump?

That’s what a LOT of Republicans are telling pollsters….

The Republican 2016 Presidential feild is split RIGHT NOW mostly between three people….

Donald Trump…..Ben Carson and Ted Cruz…..

Two of these guys are NOT certified politicians with being elected to public office….

The last one just got there a bit more than a year ago….

None of them get much more than 20% of the polling numbers….

But Trump gets about 10% more than the other guys….

The establishment Republicans wake up every morning and have to be shaking their heads at how their party is being overun by people who haven’t gone along with THEIR program and paiid their dues….

All this after Republicans tranced the Democrats last year in mid-terme elections and thought they could pat themselves on the back….

Nope….

With Ted Cruz pushing the party to get MORE to the Right….

And Donald Trump attacking EVERYONE ……

And Ben Carson doing well by saying little if nothing…..

The Republican’s are stuck watching American’s BIGGEST entertainment show go op and On and ON at the the parties exspense…

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126 thoughts on “Open Thread for August 17, 2015..The Dog days of a Trump Summer….”

  1. Well if you want a real discussion you should have avoided the word,

    “Possible.”

    Of course anything is possible .

    A Trump presidency?The chances are very remote in my view.Indeed I think he has little chance at the Republican nomination ,despite his success so far.

    As I’ve mentioned, Trump is practicing the politics of “rage.”His record is a non issue for now(though it will likely come in play later) .His positions on issues isn’t either.Most of the people who say they support him are mad ,not only at the establishment ,but even themselves for having supported that establishment.

    Trump appeals to all their fears and anger ,makes trite promises which are actually very establishment like.I mean,”We are going to make America great again.”Gee like that slogans never been used.

    The problem with the politics of rage is its hard to maintain over a long period.People gradually tire of it and ,sometimes in spite of themselves ,naturally gravitate back to what they know best.

    The last two examples we have of something similiar is the George Wallace and Ross Perot candidacies.The latter actually led Bush and Clinton in 1992 for awhile.Wallace was polling a quarter of the vote early on.In the end they both polled in the teens.Now theirs were third party candidacies ,while Trump is running fora party nomination so thats a difference .Still the fundamentals are similiar.Mad people , raucous rallies ,cries of”he tells it like it is.”

    There’s nothing new here really.

    There’s a lot of time to go here (the General election is over fourteen months away and the first actual voting for the Republican nomination is five months away).

    The Trump phenomenon has only been going on a couple of months.Theres way too much time remaining to say how this thing will play out.

  2. You may want to give the Trump postings a rest, James, but I don’t think the man will let you. See, for example, in today’s Boston Globe

    South Boston brothers allegedly beat homeless man
    ¶ Police say victim was targeted because he is Hispanic

    By Sara DiNatale and Maria Sacchetti Globe Correspondent and Globe Staff August 19, 2015

    The homeless man was lying on the ground, shaking, when police arrived early Wednesday. His face was soaked, apparently with urine, his nose broken, his chest and arms battered.

    Police said two brothers from South Boston ambushed the 58-year-old as he slept outside of a Dorchester MBTA stop, and targeted him because he is Hispanic. One of the brothers said he was inspired in part by GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

    The allegations ignited widespread condemnation Wednesday.

    Mayor Martin J. Walsh said the brothers “should be ashamed of themselves.” Boston’s top prosecutor, Daniel F. Conley, called the case “sickening.”

    Police Commissioner William B. Evans, a South Boston resident, said the brothers had given his neighborhood “a bad name.” He called it “a disgrace.”

    Trump, told of the alleged assault, said “it would be a shame . . . I will say that people who are following me are very passionate. They love this country and they want this country to be great again. They are passionate.”…

    Police said Scott Leader, 38, told them it was OK to assault the man because he was Hispanic and homeless.

    “Donald Trump was right, all these illegals need to be deported,” he allegedly told the police…

    Of course, I’d like to know what (if anything) was in that ellipsis within the Trump quotation: maybe Donald Trump was even more forthright and severe in his condemnation of this hate crime, or maybe the reporter or editor left out what followed because it was irrelevant.

  3. Yes, way too much time to predict what will happen. But, did anyone besides me watch Trump’s performance yesterday? He spewed hatred throughout, overt hatred — Anchor Babies, Bergdahl, immigrants in general, no hiring from overseas, everyone is stupid other than me, a big wall, no trade with China, and on and on….

    Joe McCarthy on steroids.

    He played to his audience that was four times the size of Jeb’s and he kept repeating that. He is out to take down Bush. Wouldn’t that be ironic? But, do I have a problem knowing someone attacked an undocumented worker and quoted Trump? No.

  4. I’m in a particularly good mood right now. We just had our corporate picnic today and I am pleased to report that I won the egg toss. No big deal, of course, but since I rarely win any form of athletic competition, I’m going to gloat while I have the chance. The final toss was maybe 30 yards away – I don’t know if I could have thrown underhand much further than that!

  5. For those who are NOT SO serious?

    I will continue to rah, rah for the Trump campaign to continue to push the GOP contenders farther and farther to the into a tither…

    I will continue to rah, rah for Trump to say ridiculous things that are ALREADY coming back to haunt him…

    I will continue to rah, rah for him drive the Republican Establishment worry ….

    And I will rah, rah for him to be so self involved that he actually mounts a 3rd party race that will assure a Democratic White House for the next Eight year…

    Damn REAL…

  6. Ultimately, hate speech by a GOP presidential candidate is bad for the country. And when that inevitably causes violence against others, that is a serious thing. If the hate speech continues, so will the violence – and yes that is serious. It is obvious to me that you like Trump’s hate speech because you think it will benefit Hillary. And yeah, of course that is offensive.

  7. Take it as you want Z….

    You KNOW that is NOT true about me….

    And yes I DO WANT Trump to do the Democrats dirty work ….

    Damn real…

    It’s about time somebody gave the GOP a beat down for their focus on trying undercut Black, Brown and Yellow people who support this country ….

    And help Trump make millions…

  8. I know exactly what you meant. When Trump says that Bush is stupid, you can cheer. When he says that undocumented workers are criminals, you should NOT cheer.

  9. THAT works for me…..

    BTW?

    Politico has dropped out of the Donald Trump fan club as of yesterday….

    I wonder if any other media outfit will follow them?

  10. Politico is not a serious news organization. It’s full of editorializing and hit pieces. And sour, grumpy, unprofessional rendering of political events.

  11. Well Mac
    I’m gonna go out on limb and say that
    More critical media looking at Trump is on the way
    In addition?
    He’s going to have to reconcile his political wants against his money from Latino’s
    Let’s see what the next week or so brings to the
    Donald Trump show……

  12. Ah, add Ezra Klien and PPP polling to the list there Mac…

    Trump actually loses in running against the top tier Republican ‘s in one one match ups

    Right now I think he just beats Jeb

    People HAVE been pointing out Trump may beat the pack when it’s large
    But he can’t much over the low 20’s…
    It’s gonna take a while…

    But I think we are beginning to see the why and how of his coming back down to earth as a would be political operative vs a plain ole’ entertainment act….

  13. Sounds good.
    Either way he’s already broken the donor-tyranny of talking points in the political debate. That’s good.

    And let’s see tonight about those 50.000 in Alabama!

    You asked about Trump winning the nomination the other day? Not knowing enough about the ground game dimension – I’d give him a 10-15% chance.

    One argument in his favor is actually his escalating campaign. He doesn’t bet big on failing or high-risk projects. And I do think that he’s in it to win it at this point.
    But again, 10-15%.

  14. The market is plummeting.

    Why?

    a. China devalued it’s currency?

    b. It looks like war could break out in Korea?

    c. Trump has a lead in the polls?

    d. An asteroid may collide with the Earth?

    e. The insiders have sold all their stock?

    f. All of the above.

  15. And I know you don’t care about this James, but you really should look beyond the entertainment part of Trump, as it’s just a cheap trick to get attention. The bigger question is what lies beneath.

    And I won’t quote his book many more times – but this is very relevant to understanding his tactics:

    “Get the Word Out:

    You can have the most wonderful product in the world, but if people don’t know about it, it’s not going to be worth much. There are singers in the world with voices as good as Frank Sinatra’s, but they’re singing in their garages because no one has ever heard of them. You need to generate interest, and you need to create excitement.

    ..The final key to the way I promote is bravado. I play to people’s fantasies. People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by those who do. That’s why a little hyperbole never hurts. People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular.
    I call it truthful hyperbole. It’s an innocent form of exaggeration — and a very effective form of promotion.”

    But this is all PR. On delivery:

    “Deliver the Goods:
    You can’t con people, at least not for long. You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little hyperbole. But if you don’t deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on.”

    Point being:
    He’s NOT a loose or out-of-control canon, or simply a talker. He’s focused on delivering the goods, as his record shows.

  16. Mac?
    I can NOT AGREE
    I DO think he’s a loose cannon
    I never said he wasn’t smart
    He did go to the Warton school on his daddy’s dime
    He has a pattern of making actuation’s that are half truths
    Of attacking people who dare to question him
    And just keeping the noise up
    He gets no play from me
    But i hope he keeps tearing up the GOP
    and continues to give black, brown and yellow people reason to vote Democratic next year

  17. Good. I like disagreements.

    Why should “black, brown and yellow” not vote for him? As long as they’re legal citizens he’ll create lots of jobs and probably provide good health care. That’s more than your favorite Hillary will.

    As far as I know he has by far exceed his father’s career and ambitions, your repetitive claims about the “daddy” thing is not that relevant here. For types like Romney yes, but not Donald Trump. He’s not disconnected from ordinary folks.

    He’s tearing up the corrupted and donor-controlled GOP, which is great, but he’ll also brutally tear down Hillary. And you know it. Just watch.

    “Loose canon” implies uncontrolled emotional behavior. That’s not Trump. He’s no hot-head Christie. He knows the game he’s playing.

    “attacking people who dare to question him” – the media is full of pretentious idiots who think they’re entitled to attack everyone disrespectfully. They abuse their power and pretend they have none.
    I love it when people, anyone, slam back in their faces. It’s fully appropriate and shows confidence and assertiveness. When it’s in its place.

  18. In it’s place? You mean blatantly lying and daring the media to question him? He plays the “common folks like a fiddle” (appealing to their base prejudices) but he isn’t the least common, and from his past business dealings he sure can screw the common man when it suits his purposes.

  19. Yeh,but Mac,by your own admission, Trump has little chance of getting to “tear down ” Hillary(I believe you rated his chances of winning the GOP nomination at 10-15%)

    For the sake of argument,let’s assume he does though.There is NO prospect that he will do any better among Black voters than any other Republicans, that is single digits.( all Republicans promise “jobs!” So that shtick is nothing new) .One would have to be very naive to believe that he would get any substantial Hispanic support.(personally I doubt if he would get more than 10% or so).

    Anyway,let’s get down to brass tacks,Trumps REAL selling point to GOPers is his immigration policies.Thats what made him stand out and ,to a large degree ,continues to animate his candidacy.I agree with you that he shows confidence and assertiveness,so much so that those who find his immigration solutions appealing believe that,unlike others who offer talk,Trump would actually do what he says.

    That’s what’s driving his success so far in my view and it is based on the emotional response he arouses.As I opined yesterday though such will become more difficult to sustain as time goes on.

  20. I am now revising my view of Joe Bidens candidacy.

    I now believe there is a better than 50/50 chance that he enters the race.

  21. So noted Jack….

    I SILL believe it way too late for Biden
    But I agree there are those who COULD express
    A interest in jumping ship from Hillary
    Doing so would of course screw them if Hillary does win the nomination
    A lot of people gonna have to think real HARD about actually leaving the Clinton ‘s who NEVER forget

    I don’t think you want be that person
    Especially with Joe’s campaign history

    All this is good for Hillary
    I wanted her to have to step up her game
    The GOPer’s are gonna make the stuff now a picnic
    She needs this

  22. Biden has to deal with the following….

    Little money

    No organization

    Age concerns

    His 2 strikes in running for President

    His ability to say the wrong thing ( maybe Trump might help him on this)

    He is President Obama’s sidekick

    REALLY?
    The ONLY thing ole Joe Biden has going is he’s a man and he ain’t Hillary, of the Clinton family

    Despite the media / Republican effort to derail Hillary
    Who beats EVERBODY in the 2016 Presidential race?
    She is STILL the best the Democrats have
    And they know that…

    Leaving her at the altar this late
    Would essentially throw the Democratic Party into disarray….

    People gotta man up
    It will get worst before next November

  23. Let me be clear,

    I’m not necessarily predicting success for his candidacy.

    Just noting that I believe the temptation for an old warrior will just be too much to resist ,particularly as polling shows that he is running about as well as Hillary now ,and given her continuing problems overcoming these media driven setbacks.

    I still rate her the prohibitive favorite for the nomination ,regardless of whether Joe runs or not.

  24. I think that Trump would do better than 10% of the Latino vote. my guess is he would double that – which of course will still be a problem for the GOP.

  25. Oh I think he would get very little.

    As DSD has pointed out,the Hispanic press is all over him .Hes totally anathema in that community.His only support,in my view, would come from Hispanics who are several generations removed from their immigrant forebears and have made a little money and want to play at being Republicans

    Make no mistake those “conservatives” down in Bama last night?They ain’t wanting ANY Hispanics around.

    These are Trumps people.The vast majority of Hispanics would “get” exactly where he and his supporters are coming from.

    Since I don’t think he has much chance at being the nominee, it’s probably all irrelevant though.

  26. And while there is much speculation as to money troubles maybe forcing Rick Perry from the race early,attention is now turning to Chris Christie who has now dropped from the Top Ten in polling averages,is running at about 3% in NH, a state that has long been considered a key to his breakout into the top tier, and with little prospect of a comeback there,some are now talking about the early favorite having little future in the contest.

  27. Trump as the nominee would spur a huge registration and turnout by Hispanics.

    Of course the image of such would cause right wingers to howl about voter fraud. Which they basically do anytime someone who isn’t going to vote Republican turns out.

  28. I’ll back Jack
    I don’t think Trump gets anywhere near 20% of the Hispanic vote
    As I posted
    His business people are already trying to blunt their bosses political rants against them…

    When this is over he has some serious groveling to do to Hispanics/Latino’s
    Money IS MONEY
    And his political show is gonna cost him a BIG market if he don’t walk things back…

  29. OK

    How many Hispanics are we talking about really?

    As even this opinion piece notes ,most Hispanics are Democrats.So how many are we talking about?

    Also note that America One network is a new Right Wing network that believes FoxNews isn’t conservative enough!

    They recently signed Sarah Palin as their new “star”

    So I’ll let Donald believe their “poll.”

    Me?

    Please don’t blame me for being a little skeptical of this being anything more than a little hype.

  30. It’s not as if this is a major disagreement.. Twenty percent of the Latino vote would still be a disaster for the GOP

  31. Please read the comments to the linked piece….
    Doubt about the 20% figure isn’t from only us….

  32. Oh We don’t have any disagreement really since neither believes Trump is going to be the Republican nominee.

    Our discussion is purely academic in nature and the answer we will probably never know.

  33. I read the link, James. This is a poll over a year in advance.

    If you have a point and you want to make it, then do so. Otherwise stay away.

  34. so, what is you point? The number seem to support about 20%. It is not as if Hillary has a 90% favorability rating.

  35. Sometimes I think we all,me included, get a little hung up on minutiae.

    Suffice it to say ,that whatever Hispanic support, in his quest for the Republican nomination and in the wholly unlikely event that he were to become the nominee he receives will not be significant really and that the vast majority of Hispanics will not be supporting him.

  36. Also,let’s remember that NBC News has said that in order for the Republicans to have a realistic chance of winning the presidency they must win 35% of the Hispanic vote.

    I presume such is assuming an electorate similiar to that of 2012 which,despite Republicn assertions that Blacks will not turn out without Obama at the head of the ticket,I believe is a good bet.

    If this is accurate, then,as of now, I don’t believe any Republican ,including Bush , can do that.Indeed most would have trouble polling the 27% Mitt Romney did.

  37. Yeh I knew it was.

    I was just making a general observation.

    More of a self reflection because I know I have a tendency to do this.

  38. While I’m just as ready to concede that 20% Trump still equals a crushing Democratic landslide among Hispanics, (it means a net loss of 50-60% of 11% of the next electorate), it’s worth noting how old this poll is (using Harold Wilson’s famous dictum that “a week is a long time in politics”): it was conducted July 12th and 13th.

    Donald Trump had said only half the outrageous things about immigration before Bastille Day and the All-Star break that he has since. Seven weeks ago, it wasn’t completely unreasonable to imagine it possible that he might balance or qualify some of his statements; but being Trump he’s doubled down on his ace and five.

    Also that 32% is among not only Hispanic Republicans in Nevada, but among likely Hispanic voters in the Nevada Republican presidential primary [— or caucuses?], i.e. the most committed Republicans or most fervent anti-Democrats.

    16% of the whole sample was Hispanic and 37% of the whole sample was Republican (43% D, 21% ind/other), but there’s no drill-down or cross-tab link to show how many Hispanic Republicans answered this telephone poll.

    As shown in the block below, 623 respondents planned to vote in the GOP primary (MOE +/– 4%), 416 in the Democratic primary (+/– 5%) and 237 in the general but no primary.

    When asked their ideology, respondents gave:

    24% very conservative
    22% slightly conservative [= 44 % very or slightly conservative)
    30% moderate
    13% slightly liberal
    11% very liberal (= 24% very or slightly liberal)

    http://www.oann.com/pollnevada/

    Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm headquartered in Florida, conducted the polling. The random survey of 1,276 registered voters in Nevada was conducted during July 12 and 13th. The sample includes 623 Republican Primary participants, 416 Democratic Primary participants, and 237 planning to vote in 2016, but will not participate in the primary elections. The overall poll has a margin of error of ± 3% with 4% for Republican Primary and 5% for Democratic Primary. The total may not add up to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using interactive voice response, IVR, technology and weighted separately for each population in the question presented. Gravis Marketing is the recipient of the 2013 American Association of Political Consultants award for 2012 Presidential Primary domestic and international phone calls.

    http://www.oann.com/trump-leads-nevada-poll-with-overwhelming-hispanic-support/

  39. The poll IS a week old
    The comments are mostly negative on the post
    And I and OTHERS SERIOUSLY question the 20% figure….

  40. Jeb
    And probably Rubio have to be thinking THEY CAN work towards George W Bush’s numbers
    I’m SURE Trump will never get close
    Unless he changes his tune BIG TIME
    And what’s the chances of THAT?

  41. Once again this “debate” is purely academic as Trump is not going to be the Republicn nominee

  42. That Nevada poll (July 12-13) is six weeks old, (not seven as I said), but much more than one week old.

    It was well before the two Fox News debates on Thursday, August 6, which has been followed by non-stop Trump/immigration headlines, interrupted only sporadically by the Iran nuclear deal and the odd human tragedy or natural disaster.

  43. DSD, my 20% estimate was not based on that survey. I looked it up and shared it after I speculated on the 20% forecast. I don’t think that Latinos vote exclusively on a candidate’s immigration stand, and I am not at all convinced that Trump’s numbers are down from July.

    Yes, James, you don’t have to and should not participate in every conversation.

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