Open Thread for August 17, 2015..The Dog days of a Trump Summer….

Why NOT Trump?

That’s what a LOT of Republicans are telling pollsters….

The Republican 2016 Presidential feild is split RIGHT NOW mostly between three people….

Donald Trump…..Ben Carson and Ted Cruz…..

Two of these guys are NOT certified politicians with being elected to public office….

The last one just got there a bit more than a year ago….

None of them get much more than 20% of the polling numbers….

But Trump gets about 10% more than the other guys….

The establishment Republicans wake up every morning and have to be shaking their heads at how their party is being overun by people who haven’t gone along with THEIR program and paiid their dues….

All this after Republicans tranced the Democrats last year in mid-terme elections and thought they could pat themselves on the back….

Nope….

With Ted Cruz pushing the party to get MORE to the Right….

And Donald Trump attacking EVERYONE ……

And Ben Carson doing well by saying little if nothing…..

The Republican’s are stuck watching American’s BIGGEST entertainment show go op and On and ON at the the parties exspense…

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126 thoughts on “Open Thread for August 17, 2015..The Dog days of a Trump Summer….”

  1. Trump as the nominee would spur a huge registration and turnout by Hispanics.

    Of course the image of such would cause right wingers to howl about voter fraud. Which they basically do anytime someone who isn’t going to vote Republican turns out.

  2. I’ll back Jack
    I don’t think Trump gets anywhere near 20% of the Hispanic vote
    As I posted
    His business people are already trying to blunt their bosses political rants against them…

    When this is over he has some serious groveling to do to Hispanics/Latino’s
    Money IS MONEY
    And his political show is gonna cost him a BIG market if he don’t walk things back…

  3. OK

    How many Hispanics are we talking about really?

    As even this opinion piece notes ,most Hispanics are Democrats.So how many are we talking about?

    Also note that America One network is a new Right Wing network that believes FoxNews isn’t conservative enough!

    They recently signed Sarah Palin as their new “star”

    So I’ll let Donald believe their “poll.”

    Me?

    Please don’t blame me for being a little skeptical of this being anything more than a little hype.

  4. It’s not as if this is a major disagreement.. Twenty percent of the Latino vote would still be a disaster for the GOP

  5. Please read the comments to the linked piece….
    Doubt about the 20% figure isn’t from only us….

  6. Oh We don’t have any disagreement really since neither believes Trump is going to be the Republican nominee.

    Our discussion is purely academic in nature and the answer we will probably never know.

  7. I read the link, James. This is a poll over a year in advance.

    If you have a point and you want to make it, then do so. Otherwise stay away.

  8. so, what is you point? The number seem to support about 20%. It is not as if Hillary has a 90% favorability rating.

  9. Sometimes I think we all,me included, get a little hung up on minutiae.

    Suffice it to say ,that whatever Hispanic support, in his quest for the Republican nomination and in the wholly unlikely event that he were to become the nominee he receives will not be significant really and that the vast majority of Hispanics will not be supporting him.

  10. Also,let’s remember that NBC News has said that in order for the Republicans to have a realistic chance of winning the presidency they must win 35% of the Hispanic vote.

    I presume such is assuming an electorate similiar to that of 2012 which,despite Republicn assertions that Blacks will not turn out without Obama at the head of the ticket,I believe is a good bet.

    If this is accurate, then,as of now, I don’t believe any Republican ,including Bush , can do that.Indeed most would have trouble polling the 27% Mitt Romney did.

  11. Yeh I knew it was.

    I was just making a general observation.

    More of a self reflection because I know I have a tendency to do this.

  12. While I’m just as ready to concede that 20% Trump still equals a crushing Democratic landslide among Hispanics, (it means a net loss of 50-60% of 11% of the next electorate), it’s worth noting how old this poll is (using Harold Wilson’s famous dictum that “a week is a long time in politics”): it was conducted July 12th and 13th.

    Donald Trump had said only half the outrageous things about immigration before Bastille Day and the All-Star break that he has since. Seven weeks ago, it wasn’t completely unreasonable to imagine it possible that he might balance or qualify some of his statements; but being Trump he’s doubled down on his ace and five.

    Also that 32% is among not only Hispanic Republicans in Nevada, but among likely Hispanic voters in the Nevada Republican presidential primary [— or caucuses?], i.e. the most committed Republicans or most fervent anti-Democrats.

    16% of the whole sample was Hispanic and 37% of the whole sample was Republican (43% D, 21% ind/other), but there’s no drill-down or cross-tab link to show how many Hispanic Republicans answered this telephone poll.

    As shown in the block below, 623 respondents planned to vote in the GOP primary (MOE +/– 4%), 416 in the Democratic primary (+/– 5%) and 237 in the general but no primary.

    When asked their ideology, respondents gave:

    24% very conservative
    22% slightly conservative [= 44 % very or slightly conservative)
    30% moderate
    13% slightly liberal
    11% very liberal (= 24% very or slightly liberal)

    http://www.oann.com/pollnevada/

    Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm headquartered in Florida, conducted the polling. The random survey of 1,276 registered voters in Nevada was conducted during July 12 and 13th. The sample includes 623 Republican Primary participants, 416 Democratic Primary participants, and 237 planning to vote in 2016, but will not participate in the primary elections. The overall poll has a margin of error of ± 3% with 4% for Republican Primary and 5% for Democratic Primary. The total may not add up to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using interactive voice response, IVR, technology and weighted separately for each population in the question presented. Gravis Marketing is the recipient of the 2013 American Association of Political Consultants award for 2012 Presidential Primary domestic and international phone calls.

    http://www.oann.com/trump-leads-nevada-poll-with-overwhelming-hispanic-support/

  13. The poll IS a week old
    The comments are mostly negative on the post
    And I and OTHERS SERIOUSLY question the 20% figure….

  14. Jeb
    And probably Rubio have to be thinking THEY CAN work towards George W Bush’s numbers
    I’m SURE Trump will never get close
    Unless he changes his tune BIG TIME
    And what’s the chances of THAT?

  15. Once again this “debate” is purely academic as Trump is not going to be the Republicn nominee

  16. That Nevada poll (July 12-13) is six weeks old, (not seven as I said), but much more than one week old.

    It was well before the two Fox News debates on Thursday, August 6, which has been followed by non-stop Trump/immigration headlines, interrupted only sporadically by the Iran nuclear deal and the odd human tragedy or natural disaster.

  17. DSD, my 20% estimate was not based on that survey. I looked it up and shared it after I speculated on the 20% forecast. I don’t think that Latinos vote exclusively on a candidate’s immigration stand, and I am not at all convinced that Trump’s numbers are down from July.

    Yes, James, you don’t have to and should not participate in every conversation.

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