Has Bernie Sanders peaked?

FiveThirtyEight thinks so….

Not long ago, Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders was surging. In just a few months, the Vermont senator halved Hillary Clinton’s lead in Iowa and moved to within shouting distance of her in New Hampshire. But it’s probably time to change the verb tense. No longer is Sanders surging. He has surged. From now on, picking up additional support will be more of a slog.

Take a look at the monthly averages of Clinton’s and Sanders’s support in live-interview polls taken in Iowa and New Hampshire since April (the month that both Clinton and Sanders officially entered the race):

July 55% 26% 45% 35%
June 51 29 47 30
May 57 16 62 18
April 59 9 51 13

Support for Sanders rocketed up in Iowa but has leveled off since June. The story is nearly the same in New Hampshire. Sanders rose from June to July in the Granite State, but his ascent slowed.

So what’s going on? Sanders is maxing out on gains simply because of increased name recognition….


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13 thoughts on “Has Bernie Sanders peaked?”

  1. Nor is his polling numbers bad for me….

    I pushed for someone to primary Hillary…

    That is happening….

    Silver is NOT out on a limb….

    Sanders isn’t gonna be the Democratic nominee….

    NO ONE here seriously believes so….

    But have fun everyone…

    That’s what this place is about!

  2. Why?

    Because Nate and I and indeed just about everyone else KNOWS the guy ain’t gonna beat Hillary?


    That Donald Trump isn’t gonna be the GOP nominee?

    Or that me and Nate feel strongly about the two NOT making it!

    Sure Nate makes mistakes…I do also just like everyone here….

    But on these two?

    There are gonna be TWO…


    He, he, he….

    Who here wants to predict Donald Trump vs Bernie Sanders in next years general election to run a 313 Million person American?



  3. I presume that remark by James that Silver is not “out on a limb”had something to do with my post on the other thread.

    Please note that I was referring to his prediction that Trump wouldn’t be the nominee and that the reference as to him not being out on a limb was pure sarcasm.

  4. Thanks Jack….


    I think i was actually thinking about him and his 2014 call that went South on him…

    He IS going out on limb this early
    He says so in the piece I believe

  5. You wanted Hillary to get beat by a cranky old socialist in the most important primary of all? Turns out that’s what I wanted too! This is great.

    You and I both were happy that the Republicans won the midterm too. If only more Democrats were like you…

  6. Yes I wanted the Democrats to get their shit together….

    NOW I want the Democrats to KEEP the White House and regain the US Senate…

    Unlike you…
    I wanted their loss to be a wake call to TRY HARDER and GET OUT THE VOTE….

    And I NEVER said I wanted Hillary to lose …Not in 2008….Not now…
    I wanted someone to primary her to help her sharpen up her game…

  7. I wouldnt describe Sanders as “cranky”

    I can see where rich Republicans and their middle class useful idiot apologists might see it that way though.

  8. I agree with almost everything Sanders is saying

    I think though that Hillary would be the better General Election candidate, mainly because Bernie is self professed “Socialist.”

    I don’t have a problem with that.Indeed, most people in this country ,including most Republicans ,support a certain amount of Socialism.Unfortunately ,however, the so called”liberal” media has made that word into a “bad” one,politically at least.Socialists are thought of as political extremists, while almost ALL the Republican presidential candidates are variously described as “conservatives” instead of what they are,Right Wing extremists.

    Still I’m glad Bernie is in there pitching .He is keeping issues alive that need to be talked about.He has surely pushed Hillary to the Left and,unlike James, I don’t see her modifying any of her major policy stands in the General Election campaign.

  9. I would only add that GOPer’s should be worst on Socialist’s
    Otherwise I’m with you on most of the above…

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