I found this to take my mind off the Donald Trump show….
Of course it makes me feel good cause I agree with the prediction by Moodys (and have pushed it here) which is based not on polling, or politics…But the Economy
And American needs this outcome….
Moody’s newly released analysis for the next election, titled “A Nail-Biter in 2016,” predicts that the Democratic nominee for president will win with exactly 270 votes from the U.S. Electoral College — the minimum amount required to win.
Meanwhile, the Republican nominee is forecast to earn 268 votes.
Moody’s model does not predict which candidate will win, only which political party.
CNN Money notes that Moody’s has a great track record when it comes to such forecasts:
The model correctly predicted every state in the 2012 election and has a nearly 90% success rate in forecasting each state accurately since 1980.
The main underpinning of Moody’s model is not politics but the economy, however, with three economic variables being keys to the election outcome.
The first variable is the growth in real personal income per household in the two years leading up to the election, Moody’s report explains:
This variable captures the strength of the job market in each state, including job growth, hours worked, wage growth, and the quality of the jobs being created. It also captures how well households are doing on some of their investments, as it includes dividends, interest income and rents.
This variable currently favors the incumbent party, the Democrats, because all of these factors have been on the rise with the exception of wage growth, which is predicted to increase in the coming months….