Open Thread for August 7, 2016…Democrats will Keep the White House…

I found this to take my mind off the Donald Trump show….

Of course it makes me feel good cause I agree with the prediction  by Moodys (and have pushed it here) which is based not on polling, or politics…But the Economy

And American needs this outcome….

Moody’s newly released analysis for the next election, titled “A Nail-Biter in 2016,” predicts that the Democratic nominee for president will win with exactly 270 votes from the U.S. Electoral College — the minimum amount required to win.

Meanwhile, the Republican nominee is forecast to earn 268 votes.

Moody’s model does not predict which candidate will win, only which political party.

CNN Money notes that Moody’s has a great track record when it comes to such forecasts:

The model correctly predicted every state in the 2012 election and has a nearly 90% success rate in forecasting each state accurately since 1980.

The main underpinning of Moody’s model is not politics but the economy, however, with three economic variables being keys to the election outcome.

The first variable is the growth in real personal income per household in the two years leading up to the election, Moody’s report explains:

This variable captures the strength of the job market in each state, including job growth, hours worked, wage growth, and the quality of the jobs being created. It also captures how well households are doing on some of their investments, as it includes dividends, interest income and rents.

This variable currently favors the incumbent party, the Democrats, because all of these factors have been on the rise with the exception of wage growth, which is predicted to increase in the coming months….

More…

96 thoughts on “Open Thread for August 7, 2016…Democrats will Keep the White House…”

  1. The reason Bush does slightly better than the other GOPers in the RCP average is that ,somewhat incongruously, Quinnipic shows Bush with a one point lead ,while all the others show a Clinton lead of 4-6 points.

    It appears that Q is a definite outlier that boosts Bush’s “average.”

    1. She apparently IS holding her own
      And this stuff gives the Bush people some confidence, though their guy is Struggling a bit….

        1. On my obsession with Donald Trump?

          …twitter….

          Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato
          Summary of all Sunday shows: Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump. I just saved you lots of time. You’re welcome.

  2. Yeh he really seems to have lost it.

    Still he’s not yet forty.

    I guess a comeback of sorts isn’t out of the question ,but I don’t see him ever being what he was again ,and Jack Nicklaus’s record is safe.

  3. Yeh I remember Dole mentioned something like that early in his campaign or maybe it was some staff people who floated it.I don’t think he ever formally adopted that position though.

    Dole was famous however for various off the cuff statements.

    Remember once he forthrightly declared,

    “Want me to be another Reagan?(crowd cheers) OK I’ll be another Reagan.”

    Gave pandering a bad name!

    1. Update…..
      Hillary Clinton ‘s Iowa speech is reported to so important for her that used a tele-prompter
      The speech is/was a direct throw down at Republican ‘s
      I’ll have a post on it later…

      1. Just a random thought?
        The Chinese govt has hacked just about EVERY American govt internet system there is…
        They are probably up there with the NSA
        access to online traffic around the plant….

            1. Tiger Woods missed the cut for the third straight Golf tournament….
              The guy needs to give it up and do commercial’s
              Ever since his took out the back window of his car his game is gone

              1. Interesting…

                In the RCP 2016 Presidential Dem/GOP match ups?

                Bush vs Clinton has him the closest @
                Hillary by +4.2
                The Worst is Hillary vs a Trump where she beats HIM BY +14.8

  4. exactly, Scott. It’s kind of like saying “I’m too old for two terms, but not too old for one term”. It doesn’t exactly alleviate any concerns.

  5. According to noted reporter Carl Bernstein Joe Biden may resort to the gimmick of pledging to serve only one term if he announces a presidential bid.

  6. The Washington Post has unearthed an old News Conference featuring Dr Carson sponsored by a Pro Choice organization in Maryland in 1992.

    Apparently Carson appeared in an ad for an anti abortion group which was opposing a referendum which would have codified Roe v. Wade in Maryland state law.

    At the news conference Carson claimed the anti abortion group had misled him as to the way they were going to use the ad.He then urged everyone to make up their own mind on the issue.Sitting next to him was the leader of the Maryland Pro Choice group.

    Carson has over the years apparently evolved to a more vigorous anti abortion position.

    Running for the Republican nomination for President can have that effect!

  7. I simply find it amazing how Republicans twist themselves into pretzels over this issue.

    Everyone’s entitled to their opinion on any matter ,but to use this issue ,which ultimately is a Personal choice that a woman is going to make for herself (and there is almost nothing the government can do about it) , as to who should be President is really off base in my view.

  8. Well that puts Carson at odds with the so called more mainstream candidates Walker and Rubio, who see NO exception in cases of rape and incest.

  9. Although the Kennedy Administration promised never to invade Cuba, the Castro’s will now live to see a different kind of “invasion” once American tourism takes over the island.

    Club Meds of the world unite!

      1. Carson: ‘Abortion pill’ should be available in cases of rape or incest

        Women who get pregnant from rape or incest should be able to go to the emergency room for an “abortion pill,” Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson said Thursday.

        Speaking on Fox News Channel’s “Your World with Neil Cavuto,” the anchor asked Carson if he believes women should be able to get abortions in cases of rape or incest.

        “I would hope that they would very quickly avail themselves of the emergency room, and in the emergency room, they have the ability to administer RU-486 and other possibilities before you have a developing fetus,” Carson said, more than five minutes into the interview…

        More @ http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/251078-carson-abortion-pill-should-be-available-in-cases-of-rape-or-incest

        (He didn’t check in with social conservatives BEFORE putting this out, Did He?)

        1. This is amazing !

          Carson said next to nothing in the debate

          Is for abortion for rape and incest

          And is rising in the Polls?

      1. We will continue to have differences of opinions here….

        That’s good….

        One hopes that won’t get personal…

        I’ll try to cut down on my he’s….But they will appaer from time to time…It’s me….

        Oh, and consisdering the average age of ALL us?

        We’re lucky we remember our names….

              1. Crude oil prices @ 42.52
                Gas prices will keep dropping…
                6.5 year low
                There is a glut
                And Iran is waiting to sell ITS oil!

      1. Talk about Hillary as Sec of State?
        Current Sec of Stste Kerry is having trouble
        Keeping ‘internal ‘ Iran info internal
        According to Michael Calderone
        On Twitter
        Kerry admonished his staff to keep their mouths shut
        They promptly leaked Kerry’s warning
        No wonder Hillay’s emails where kept private!
        The WHOLE place leak’s!

  10. “He’s WAY TOO late…”

    Contingency planning?

    Joe is too old too.

    Kerry would have to step in.

    As I believe Hillary is still more a empty suit that has been groomed for the Presidency than a rough and tough Margaret Thatcher, the reasons for a Democrat nominee to be President would not be too affected. She will get out of this but she would have to pull out by the end of September if she can’t recover.

    Pure speculation right now but fun.

    1. It’s a contest…Yup….

      I admit she is NOT the warm and open person her husband is and that IS gonna hurt her…It always has….

      1. Oh, and I think I’ve copped to that Obsession thing since it IS just about what EVERYBODY on social media is talking about….

        I have posted about OTHER things ALL thru the Trump show performances…But THOSE posts don’t count?

        Thanks Jack!

  11. “The FBI is in a preliminary investigation of STATE DEPARTMENT security procedures
    NOT the former Sec of State”

    I agree the media is teasing Hillary haters. She will come out of this smelling like a rose. It will be “throw the bureaucrats under the bus.” And if she unwittingly gave out info that led to someone being exposed as a spy or worse, the rallying cry will be “what difference does it make anyway?”

    The next questions will be how much more of his stupidity is going on in Washington, are there important Republicans doing worse, and was her server more secure than the Gov. server because nobody knew it was there?

  12. Well Carson and Cruz are right behind Trump in the polls, so Trump would still inherit some of the crazy vote. I do agree though that Trump has less upward mobility than the other GOP candidates.

    If Walker remains as flat as he was in debate #1, he is more likely to fall than gain.

  13. This confirms the impression from the Facebook comments in the days right after the debate. Nearly 100% against Kelly.

    “Immediately following Thursday’s debate, Fox was deluged with pro-Trump emails. The chatter on Twitter was equally in Trump’s favor.”

    Said one Fox News source: “In the beginning, virtually 100 percent of the emails were against Megyn Kelly. Roger was not happy. Most of the Fox viewers were taking Trump’s side.”

    “Things got worse for Ailes over the weekend. In a phone conversation, Trump told Sean Hannity that ‘he was never doing Fox again,’ according to one person with knowledge of the call. The anti-Kelly emails, and threat of a boycott by Trump, seem to have pushed Ailes to defuse the war.”

  14. Now THAT was interesting – Trump on Fox & Friends.

    Main topics: his 3rd party run (as a soft ball), Hillary and his wedding, his tax policy (THAT is something they could pound on), and ISIS/war policy.

    Overall; soft and BORING interview. This is a far better strategy from Fox to try to silence him.

    He still gets a huge platform and free air time though, babbling about his achievements and popularity.

            1. Looks like Rick Perry is gonna be the first drop out from the 2016 GOP name people…
              He’s announced that he is no longer paying any campaign staff in Texas and other states.
              He’s also got some legal issues…
              The guy never caught on outside Texas…
              We’ll see if there is more on this….

              1. I’ll have a piece on Jeb”s speech tonight
                At the Ronald Reagan Presidental Lib in Cali
                Raising Hillay’s Iraq vote….
                And trying to tie her to President Obama’s Iraq policy…

              2. Breaking

                Hillary has turned over her secured server to the FBI along with a thumb drive

                The FBI is in a preliminary investigation of STATE DEPARTMENT security procedures
                NOT the former Sec of State
                More on this coming

              3. 455 days till Election day 2016

                35 days till the next GOP Debate

                62 days till the First Democratic Debate

              4. Someone correct me if I’m wrong but Trump’s NOT above 25% when everybody is ran together in the polls…

                If some of the low number guys drop out I believe Trump stays where he is and people like Walker and Rubio gain?

                Katich won’t gain to much from the right…

                And Jeb IS gonna get establishment help…

                This is MUCH closer that anyone thinks…

                But with Trump going indie I STILL see Jeb pulling it out as the establishment choice…

                Comments?

  15. Yet he maintains the facade of a leading cndidate.

    Some commentators,while noting Rubio did well in the debate,,also commented that he drew nothing but “softball” questions.

    There is a feeling among some that Rubio is actually the preferred candidate of Establishment Republicans.

    Today he announced he was opposed to abortion for ANY reason whatsoever,popular with some of the faithful for sure, but not exactly a winner among any group outside of hardcore Republicans.

    Indeed,even Romney ,whose pandering to the Right was downright embarrasing (who can forget”terribly conservative?”) ,maintained an exception for cases of rape,incest and the life of the mother.

    Rubio would have NONE of that ,and even questioned whether there was EVER a scientific reason to perform an abortion to protect the mother!

  16. The net is full of articles by various Republicans criticizing Danld Trump

    Interesting.

    But you know what these Republicans should really be concentrating on ?

    Why a substantial number of their fellow party members are supporting him and what that says about their prospects in attracting minorities as well as their party in general.

    1. Yea…He was a receiver who played in 60’s with YA Tittle for the NY Giants football team when they actually played in New York……..

      His nunber was 16 I think…..

      1. Florida Republican Presidential Primary Florida Times-Union Bush 26, Trump 27, Rubio 7, Walker 6, Cruz 8, Huckabee 4, Paul 2, Carson 8, Fiorina 2, Kasich 3, Jindal 2, Perry 1, Christie 1, Graham 0 Trump +1

        South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Augusta Chronicle Trump 31, Bush 14, Carson 10, Walker 6, Huckabee 9, Graham 7, Rubio 2, Cruz 4, Christie 4, Kasich 3, Fiorina 2, Paul 2, Perry 0, Jindal 1 Trump +17

        Georgia Republican Presidential Primary FOX 5/Morris News Trump 30, Bush 17, Carson 10, Huckabee 7, Cruz 6, Walker 5, Rubio 3, Paul 3, Christie 3, Kasich 3, Fiorina 3, Perry 2, Jindal 2, Graham 0 Trump +13

        …from Real Clear Politics….8/7/15 and 8/6/15 @ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

  17. Frances Kelsey has passé away at the age of 101.

    Few today remember the indefatigable Kelsey who back in the early sixties almost single handedly kept the drug thalidomide from being introduced in the United States.Kelsey was convinced that it’s use in Europe had led to horrible birth deformations.

    Although opposed np by the drug manufacturers and their lackeys in the Medical establishment ,Kelsey prevailed and is credited for stopping a horrible plight among children being born in those years.

    Her efforts were recognized by President Kennedy and she was placed on the cover of TIme magazine a labeled an American heroine.

    R-I -P

    1. Frank Gifford has passed.….(NY Giants Football Receiver)

      Frank Gifford, the husband of Today Show co-anchor Kathie Lee Gifford, famed sportscaster, and former New York Giants football player, died on Sunday, Aug. 9, at age 84.

      The Gifford family released a statement in light of his passing, saying:

      “It is with the deepest sadness that we announce the sudden passing of our beloved husband, father and friend, Frank Gifford. Frank died suddenly this beautiful Sunday morning of natural causes at his Connecticut home. We rejoice in the extraordinary life he was privileged to live, and we feel grateful and blessed to have been loved by such an amazing human being. We ask that our privacy be respected at this difficult time and we thank you for your prayers.”

      Kathie Lee also tweeted her thanks following the news of her husband’s passing.

      More @ http://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/frank-gifford-sportscaster-husband-kathie-lee-gifford-dies-84-201598#ixzz3iNVJXQo1

    1. BTW?

      MoveOn is doing a social media push against Chuck Schumer for saying he will vote against the Iran deal and his parties political leader, the President….

      The calling/media/social media thing obvious worked against Schumer…

  18. “Kasich”

    He would be the rational choice to head the ticket. As VP it does nothing. Perry would be my 2nd pick thus breaking my “No new Texans!” pledge.

    Rubio should run for re-election to the Senate.

    Carly Fiorina would be a good VP choice.

    Hillary is still the favorite as the AG’s office will do nothing about her indiscretions.

    Trump would drag down the entire national GOP lineup.

    1. Kasich would be good in the national election…

      But I don’t see him as the nominee thru the primary process…

      As mentioned here before….

      He make too much sense

          1. I spent the last hour and half with a great Apple tech guy debugging my Apple iMac
            Forget all that mac’s don’t get hit
            Had to download a malware company’s stuff for free to get rid of their stuff!

            1. And a Hearty Good Morning to all!

              Around my way it one of the 10 best days of year weather wise!

  19. I cant really think of any states that voted for Kerry in 04 that have become more favorable to the the GOP at the Presidential level.

    Which is a problem for Republicans since as Jack pointed out even in that year Ohio almost went blue and thus the election.

    Sure Republicans have gained in gerrymandered districts in blue states and have elected Senators and Governors in those same states in off years with lower turnout.

    But just because Mark Kirk and Bruce Rauner can win IL and Scott Walker and Ron Johnson win WI in midterms doesnt mean those states have come closer to giving their electoral votes to Republicans.

    In fact Wisconsin was closer in 2004 than it was in 2012 when the Republicans had a cheesehead on their ticket.

    1. Hillary Clinton SHOULD be able pump up Democratic voter turnout…

      The party will need her coattails to capture a slim Senate majority…

      I see the GOPer’s holding on to the House…

  20. Actually, however,unless Kasich is on the Republican ticket in 2016 ,I’m fairly optimistic about Ohio.

    Remember that the hapless Kerry came close to taking the state ,despite trailing in the nationwide popular vote by three and a half million votes ,against an incumbent President and ,had he done so, would have defeated GWB.

    Hillary,in my view, will make good use of Obamas people and turn out the Minority vote in Cleveland(ironically the site of the Republican convention.).It was this vote ,that usually reports last in the state ,that Michael Barone had to explain to a bewildered Karl Rove meant Obama was going to carry Ohio, despite the heavy suburban vote for Romney in 2012.

    I have EVERY confidence that wild Republican talk ,that will continue to grow as the various candidates try to out”conservative” each other , will scare the HELL out of those folks and bring out a huge vote there next year.

    But under my scenarios that would just be gravy on the rice!

  21. I like Jack’s scenario. Under it Democrats could lose Florida (if Bush or Rubio are on the ticket) ans Ohio (if Kasich is on the ticket) and even Iowa (which could happen) and New Mexico (unlikely)

    1. Preibus must not sleep at night
      Bush so-so
      Trump threatening
      And Hillary virtually unopposed
      No wonder the GOPers are trying everything they can to tear her down!

  22. This comes close to my personal “strategy “for a Democratic victory.

    I call it the KVC strategy.

    Take all the states John Kerry won in 2004 (Kerry being the weakest Democratic candidate in the past thirty tears or so,almost ANY Democrat should be able to do that.)Total?252 EVs.

    Then take Virginia, a state that has been trending Democratic for awhile now.13evs, bringing the total to 265.

    Then add Colorado. A socially to,era t state made to order for any Democrat just be NOT being an intolerant Republcan(which includes ALL the potential GOP candidates ,except maybe Paul, who has little chance of being the nominee) 9evs

    The Total is now 274 and a Democratic victory.

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