Open Thread for August 7, 2016…Democrats will Keep the White House…

I found this to take my mind off the Donald Trump show….

Of course it makes me feel good cause I agree with the prediction  by Moodys (and have pushed it here) which is based not on polling, or politics…But the Economy

And American needs this outcome….

Moody’s newly released analysis for the next election, titled “A Nail-Biter in 2016,” predicts that the Democratic nominee for president will win with exactly 270 votes from the U.S. Electoral College — the minimum amount required to win.

Meanwhile, the Republican nominee is forecast to earn 268 votes.

Moody’s model does not predict which candidate will win, only which political party.

CNN Money notes that Moody’s has a great track record when it comes to such forecasts:

The model correctly predicted every state in the 2012 election and has a nearly 90% success rate in forecasting each state accurately since 1980.

The main underpinning of Moody’s model is not politics but the economy, however, with three economic variables being keys to the election outcome.

The first variable is the growth in real personal income per household in the two years leading up to the election, Moody’s report explains:

This variable captures the strength of the job market in each state, including job growth, hours worked, wage growth, and the quality of the jobs being created. It also captures how well households are doing on some of their investments, as it includes dividends, interest income and rents.

This variable currently favors the incumbent party, the Democrats, because all of these factors have been on the rise with the exception of wage growth, which is predicted to increase in the coming months….

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96 thoughts on “Open Thread for August 7, 2016…Democrats will Keep the White House…”

  1. Crude oil prices @ 42.52
    Gas prices will keep dropping…
    6.5 year low
    There is a glut
    And Iran is waiting to sell ITS oil!

  2. Although the Kennedy Administration promised never to invade Cuba, the Castro’s will now live to see a different kind of “invasion” once American tourism takes over the island.

    Club Meds of the world unite!

  3. Carson: ‘Abortion pill’ should be available in cases of rape or incest

    Women who get pregnant from rape or incest should be able to go to the emergency room for an “abortion pill,” Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson said Thursday.

    Speaking on Fox News Channel’s “Your World with Neil Cavuto,” the anchor asked Carson if he believes women should be able to get abortions in cases of rape or incest.

    “I would hope that they would very quickly avail themselves of the emergency room, and in the emergency room, they have the ability to administer RU-486 and other possibilities before you have a developing fetus,” Carson said, more than five minutes into the interview…

    More @ http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/251078-carson-abortion-pill-should-be-available-in-cases-of-rape-or-incest

    (He didn’t check in with social conservatives BEFORE putting this out, Did He?)

  4. Well that puts Carson at odds with the so called more mainstream candidates Walker and Rubio, who see NO exception in cases of rape and incest.

  5. I simply find it amazing how Republicans twist themselves into pretzels over this issue.

    Everyone’s entitled to their opinion on any matter ,but to use this issue ,which ultimately is a Personal choice that a woman is going to make for herself (and there is almost nothing the government can do about it) , as to who should be President is really off base in my view.

  6. This is amazing !

    Carson said next to nothing in the debate

    Is for abortion for rape and incest

    And is rising in the Polls?

  7. The Washington Post has unearthed an old News Conference featuring Dr Carson sponsored by a Pro Choice organization in Maryland in 1992.

    Apparently Carson appeared in an ad for an anti abortion group which was opposing a referendum which would have codified Roe v. Wade in Maryland state law.

    At the news conference Carson claimed the anti abortion group had misled him as to the way they were going to use the ad.He then urged everyone to make up their own mind on the issue.Sitting next to him was the leader of the Maryland Pro Choice group.

    Carson has over the years apparently evolved to a more vigorous anti abortion position.

    Running for the Republican nomination for President can have that effect!

  8. According to noted reporter Carl Bernstein Joe Biden may resort to the gimmick of pledging to serve only one term if he announces a presidential bid.

  9. exactly, Scott. It’s kind of like saying “I’m too old for two terms, but not too old for one term”. It doesn’t exactly alleviate any concerns.

  10. Yeh I remember Dole mentioned something like that early in his campaign or maybe it was some staff people who floated it.I don’t think he ever formally adopted that position though.

    Dole was famous however for various off the cuff statements.

    Remember once he forthrightly declared,

    “Want me to be another Reagan?(crowd cheers) OK I’ll be another Reagan.”

    Gave pandering a bad name!

  11. Update…..
    Hillary Clinton ‘s Iowa speech is reported to so important for her that used a tele-prompter
    The speech is/was a direct throw down at Republican ‘s
    I’ll have a post on it later…

  12. Just a random thought?
    The Chinese govt has hacked just about EVERY American govt internet system there is…
    They are probably up there with the NSA
    access to online traffic around the plant….

  13. Tiger Woods missed the cut for the third straight Golf tournament….
    The guy needs to give it up and do commercial’s
    Ever since his took out the back window of his car his game is gone

  14. Interesting…

    In the RCP 2016 Presidential Dem/GOP match ups?

    Bush vs Clinton has him the closest @
    Hillary by +4.2
    The Worst is Hillary vs a Trump where she beats HIM BY +14.8

  15. Yeh he really seems to have lost it.

    Still he’s not yet forty.

    I guess a comeback of sorts isn’t out of the question ,but I don’t see him ever being what he was again ,and Jack Nicklaus’s record is safe.

  16. The reason Bush does slightly better than the other GOPers in the RCP average is that ,somewhat incongruously, Quinnipic shows Bush with a one point lead ,while all the others show a Clinton lead of 4-6 points.

    It appears that Q is a definite outlier that boosts Bush’s “average.”

  17. She apparently IS holding her own
    And this stuff gives the Bush people some confidence, though their guy is Struggling a bit….

  18. On my obsession with Donald Trump?

    …twitter….

    Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato
    Summary of all Sunday shows: Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump. I just saved you lots of time. You’re welcome.

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