Daily Kos Morning Diges 7/30/15…As bad polls roll in for Mark Kirk, a top GOP fundraiser wants him to quit the race

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Jeff Singer

GOP Sen. Mark Kirk

Illinois GOP Sen. Mark Kirk

Leading Off:

IL-Sen: PPP’s first Illinois poll of the cycle finds GOP Sen. Mark Kirk in a dire position. He currently trails his top Democratic challenger, Rep. Tammy Duckworth, by a 42-38 margin and sporting a plug-ugly 25-42 job approval rating. That’s down from a 28-32 score back in February (that survey did not include any general election numbers), leading Tom Jensen to conclude that Kirk’s astonishing and seemingly endless series of verbal debacles has harmed him with voters.

It’d be nice to believe that, though generally speaking, few normal people are paying attention to this kind of thing so far out (15 months!) from Election Day. Still, these numbers do suck for the incumbent, and here’s another reason: Kirk still only takes 38 percent of the vote against Duckworth’s little-known primary opponent, Andrea Zopp, who manages just 29 percent. (Duckworth leads Zopp 59-10 for the Democratic nomination.) And here’s the crazy thing: Kirk’s performance against Duckworth is actually better than in the only other poll we’ve seen this year, an Ogden & Fry survey last month that had him trailing 44-27!

But like we asked last time, is this poll too good to be true? Maybe, but it’s hard to see how it is. On the presidential side, Hillary Clinton leads by anywhere from 48-39 (over Jeb Bush) to 51-33 (against Donald Trump). If anything, that might seem soft, but bear in mind that Barack Obama’s election results in the Land of Lincoln were inflated thanks to his favorite son status. John Kerry carried Illinois by “only” 10 points, and a Feb. 2008 poll pitting Clinton against John McCain (the only legitimate one of the entire race, as it happens) found her ahead 48-37.

And it’s not just PPP who thinks Kirk is in trouble. Ron Gudwitz, a top Republican fundraiser in Illinois, just publicly called on Kirk to step aside, saying his big mouth has been damaging the party and could cause “collateral damage” to other GOP candidates. Gudwitz, who was finance chair for Gov. Bruce Rauner’s successful campaign last year, later tried to “retract” the remarks because he didn’t “want to take the heat” he immediately started getting—after all, Republicans don’t really have a better option than Kirk. But no incumbent facing a difficult re-election wants this kinds of headache—or this kind of polling result….

Senate:

FL-Sen: Just a day after the right-wing Sunshine State News reported that GOP Rep. Ted Yoho was considering a Senate bid, the congressman himself clarified matters on C-SPAN. Actually, no, wait, he didn’t. He just said a bunch of conflicting things:

Yoho: “I have no intention to run for the Senate.” […]Yoho: “It is ruled out.” […]

Host: “The story says, ‘looking at entering the race but is far from making a final decision.’ ”

Yoho: “Real far.”

Host: “Okay, so it’s done—you’re not gonna do it.”

Yoho: “It’s done.”

“Ruled out” and “it’s done” sound like definite “nos,” but “no intention” and “real far” from making a decision are definitely not “nos.” Whatever, people change their minds all the time. If Yoho wants to be crystal clear about his plans, he can issue a clarification. If he doesn’t, then we will still continue to view him as a possible Senate candidate.

And given how unsettled the Republican field is, that only makes sense. A new survey from St. Pete Polls confirms what we’ve seen elsewhere, finding Rep. David Jolly as the only contender in double digits in the five-man field (with just 10 percent); over 60 percent of GOP voters are undecided…..

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Political Roundup for July 30, 2015…Trump/Sanders similarities?…RHH Elections….

POTUS

Sanders:  Why has Senator Bernie Sanders (Socialist) gained traction at this moment of time?  While few think Sanders could actually win, Sanders seems to have a following based on a unique moment in history and him being in the right place.

Trump: Ross Douthat looks at what Donald Trump’s rise means politically speaking.  I tend to think Trump and Sanders really are grasping a batch of anger found within both parties for the status quo by groups of angry whites who somehow view themselves as victims….

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Mets shortstop Wilmer Flores is STILL a NY Met…

Terry Collins’ next-day message for shaken Wilmer Flores

The young man has player for the Mets major Laegue Baseball team since he was 17….

Last night we ALL had to watch him deal with the knowledge that he was getting traded, while he was playing in the feild as a Met…..

The trade didn’t happen….

On Wednesday night, the Mets finally pulled off a major deal, sending Wilmer Flores and Zack Wheeler to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for the highly regarded center fielder Carlos Gomez. Except, it turned out, that they did not.

In what will go down as one of the more surreal nights in the history of the Mets, who have had many strange things happen to them in their 53 years of existence, a deal that was widely, if briefly, reported by various news organizations, including The New York Times, collapsed after it had already been confirmed by various people in baseball, including a high-ranking team executive who spoke to The Times…

The first sign that something was askew with the trade came when Flores remained in the Mets’ game against San Diego on Wednesday night, which the Padres won, 7-3, despite three home runs by Lucas Duda. Normally, when a player is about to be traded he is pulled from the game to avoid any possibility of a last-minute injury that would scuttle the deal.

And yet as Wednesday’s game proceeded, and the trade was reported as fact, Flores remained on the field, playing shortstop and taking his at-bats. Reporters were mystified as to why Flores was still in the game, as was just about everyone else who was watching, including all the fans at Citi Field who were reading about the trade on their cellphones.

Those same fans then saluted Flores with a standing ovation when he came to bat in the bottom of the seventh inning, the clear assumption being they were watching him take his last swings as a Met.

And in the top of the eighth, when Flores dutifully ran back out to his shortstop position, the television cameras that zoomed in on him showed that he was crying. He, too, thought he was gone. Except that he was not….

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image….Ray Stubblebine, Bill Kostroun

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Trump…”Good’ Immigrants can come back after ALL are deported…

Doubling down on his going after the illegal’s , as a way to gather Conservative Republican primary voters…..The Donald says he wants to deport ALL illegals….Something that IS impossible…even his own party people know….

Donald Trump wants to deport all immigrants in the United States illegally and then grant the “good ones” an expedited pathway to legal status, he told CNN in an interview.

“I would get people out and have an expedited way to get them into the country so they can be legal,” he said, according to CNN.

“We got to move ’em out, we’re going to move ’em back in if they’re really good people.”
When pushed by CNN’s Dana Bash to explain how he would identify and deport the estimated 11 million immigrants in the country illegally, Trump wouldn’t give any specifics but ensured that it was possible….

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Big Money and Politics…Donald Trump….

Here’s the Donald on the Subject…..(And the Clintons)

“As a businessman and a very substantial donor to very important people, when you give, they do whatever the hell you want them to do. As a businessman, I need that.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by the Wall Street Journal, explaining campaign donations he once made to Hillary Clinton….

Politicalwire….

Note….

By the Way…..

Trump said also….

She is “very talented, very smart”

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US Economy grew at 2.3% this Spring after a slow Winter…

It seems that the peopel who do the numbers have revised the Winter numbers up a little also….

But the wages part still is lagging I don’t care what they say….

The U.S. economy grew 2.3 percent in the spring, as the economy bounced back from a brutal winter.

The new numbers reported Thursday by the Commerce Department are a bit lower than what economists expected, but show a rebound from the dismal first quarter of the year.

In fact, first quarter numbers were revised upwards to show that the economy actual did grow somewhat, by 0.6 percent. Previously, the government had reported the economy actually shrank by 0.2 percent to open the year.

Thursday’s second quarter numbers were the first government estimate for second quarter growth, and will be revised twice more. The economy grew thanks to strong consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending, among other factors.

The new numbers could put to rest lingering concerns that the U.S. economy could be in much worse shape than previously thought. The last few years have seen the economy show poor numbers in the first quarter of the year, only to bounce back as the year progressed. And Thursday’s report continues that trend….

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Q Poll Update 7/30/15…Trump continues his lead…Bush tops Clinton…

Ok…

A new Quinnipiac poll is out….(I know it’s 5 months out from primaries )

EVERYONE is running at the mouth about Donald Trump keeping his lead going in the GOP 2016 Presidential Primary race….

But the thing that Jeb Bush people and Republican insiders HAVE to be intersted in  the second part of my headline….

First almost the first time in the polling?

Jeb Bush is ahead of Hillary Clinton….(Clinton beats Trump (image THAT?) by 12% puts)

Now it’s by 1%….I know it’s within the margin of error folks….

But the Clinton people have to be a little concerned about this….

While he has a tiny lead over Clinton in the poll…Jeb Bush IS now floating around BEHIND Walker with Kasich coming up…I still Bush pulls it out…But this has beginning to get VERY interesting …..

Oh, and Walkers people have their guy in second place and Kasich is on the map now….

Yet another national poll of GOP voters shows Donald Trump leading the 2016 pack, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich climbs in the field and former Florida Gov Jeb Bush sputters.

Trump is on top of the new Quinnipiac poll with 20 percent, the best showing of any GOP candidate in all of Quinnipiac’s polls of the field. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is next at 13 percent and Bush follows at 10 percent.

The new numbers also show a strong rise by Kasich, who announced his campaign just last week. He’s more than doubled his support since Quinnipiac’s last national survey in late May, which bodes well for his chances to be in the top 10 come the first Republican debate.

Bush’s share of the field has remained stagnant since that late May poll, while Walker had a 3-point uptick.

Despite leading the field, Trump has the worst favorability score among the GOP field, which translates into a poor showing in a head-to-head matchup against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. She’d defeat him by a margin of 48 percent to 36 percent, according to the poll….

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The poll also indicates that Ohio Gov. John Kasich could ride a post-announcement bump onto the stage for next week’s debate in Cleveland, despite fears that Trump’s wall-to-wall media coverage had overshadowed his late entry into the race.

Fully 20 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters said they would vote for Trump if the primary were held today — the largest share any single candidate has received in Quinnipiac’s seven surveys over the past two years. That puts the brash real-estate magnate ahead of the two other candidates who earn double-digit support: Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 13 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 10 percent.

It’s a four-way tie for fourth place — with pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio all at 6 percent. Kasich, at 5 percent, is tied for eighth place with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz…..

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The GOP’s ridiculous cliches…..

…from the Washington Post……

In the midst of a visit to Africa, including Kenya, where Republican front-runner Donald Trump has insisted Obama was born, the president seems to have been liberated by events and circumstances to speak his true mind.

Events include the Supreme Court’s favorable rulings on the Affordable Care Act and same-sex marriage. Circumstances stem from the Republican presidential race, in which some candidates appear to be vying to out-Trump Trump.

In sum, Obama doesn’t think much of Trump — or of Trump’s Republican critics. Neither does he think much of GOP leaders and wannabe presidents, whose apocalyptic rhetoric has reduced political debate to a crypto-Armageddon-ish clash of cliches….

“Ridiculous” and “sad” were the words Obama chose to describe recent comments by Republican presidential contenders and others. Pointedly, he singled out former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.) and Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.).

All three men dug deep into their sacks of Pavlovian metaphors and similes that would get their constituents banging their reward levers. Even ol’ Pontius Pilate, to whom Cotton compared Secretary of State John F. Kerry, got a trot-out. Huckabee said that the Iran deal was leading Israelis “to the door of the oven.” And Cruz brought it home with his charge that the Obama administration is a leading state sponsor of terrorism.

Put these three in a cocktail shaker and you get a rather mixed metaphor that nonetheless pours like a narrative: Pontius Kerry is leading the Jews to the Auschwitz ovens in a terrorist act orchestrated by the president of the United States.

With all due respect, you three are making Rick Perry look like Confucius, though you might edge out Graham for a spot on Fox News. Outrageous remarks get attention, and attention gets ratings, and ratings are the coins of the realm…..

 

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Medicare and Medicaid…50 years Old and getting the job done…

Even though private health insurance companies are nipping at the Government programs…

The programs are popular…..

And have new life due to the Affordable Healthcare program….

As Medicare and Medicaid reach their 50th anniversary on Thursday, the two vast government programs that insure more than one-third of Americans are undergoing a transformation that none of their original architects foresaw: Private health insurance companies are playing a rapidly growing role in both.

More than 30 percent of the 55 million Medicare beneficiaries and well over half of the 66 million Medicaid beneficiaries are now in private health plans run by insurance companies like the UnitedHealth Group, Humana, Anthem and Centene. Enrollment has soared as the government, in an effort to control costs and improve care, pays private insurers to provide and coordinate medical services for more and more beneficiaries.

Although the programs remain highly popular with patients, skeptics question whether the use of private plans will save the government money in the long run and worry that the plans may skimp on care. But both programs served as foundations for the 2010 Affordable Care Act, which, like the newer versions of Medicare and Medicaid, uses a combination of government money and private insurance to provide coverage….

Sara Rosenbaum, a professor of health law and policy at George Washington University, said that Medicaid plans were “once the scourge of poor communities,” taking money without providing much care. But now, she said, they provide invaluable services to people with severe physical and mental health problems, as states often require those services in their contracts with insurers.

“The care is light-years better than what a Medicaid beneficiary would face if she had to go find an orthopedist, a rheumatologist or a podiatrist or get specialty drugs on her own,” Ms. Rosenbaum said.

Many Medicare patients agree.

In a comment echoed by other Medicare beneficiaries, Judith M. Anderson, 69, of Chicago said: “After a lifetime of an utterly boring personal health care history, I was diagnosed with cancer in 2013. Without Medicare, I would be bankrupt and probably dead by now. I had three surgeries and chemotherapy and paid less than $1,000 out of pocket. I love Medicare.”

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The Republicans have Netanyahu…Obama has the Europeans…

The other ciountries at the table in the Iran Nuclear deal have sent their poople to remind Congress that they have Ok’d the deal and expect America to do the same….

Obama administration officials flooding Congress to sell the pact are now working in tandem with ambassadors from the three European nations — Great Britain, France and Germany — that also signed off on the July 14 agreement.

The diplomatic trio, whose countries are known together as the “E3,” echo administration talking points and parries specific concerns from skeptical members of Congress. They also push a signature message: that the Iran deal is an international agreement, not just the handiwork of a Democratic president scorned by the GOP.

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Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford confirmed to be the new Chair of the Joint Chiefs….

A Marine will take over for Army General Martin Dempsey come this fall as the military’s senior adbisor to the Commander-in-Chief, President Obama….

Senators on Wednesday confirmed Gen. Joseph Dunford to be the new chairman of the joint chiefs of staff.

The Senate’s approval of Dunford, the head of the Marine Corps, tees him up to replace Gen. Martin Dempsey, the country’s top military officer, later this year.

The confirmation — which Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) included at the end of the Senate’s Wednesday session by unanimous consent — caps off a relatively smooth confirmation process for the military officer.

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) predicted earlier this month that Dunford would get the backing of every senator during a roll call vote…..

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image….wsash.net

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The Koch Bros ain’t talking to The Donald….

While the Trump campaign has tried to get an audience with the GOP Mega Money Brothers and their friends…

There has been no invite….

The Koch brothers are freezing out Donald Trump from their influential political operation — denying him access to their state-of-the-art data and refusing to let him speak to their gatherings of grass-roots activists or major donors.

Despite a long and cordial relationship between the real estate showman and David Koch, as well as a raft of former Koch operatives who are now running Trump’s presidential campaign, the Koch political operation appears to have concluded that Trump is the wrong standard-bearer for the GOP. And the network of Koch-backed policy and political outfits is using behind-the-scenes influence to challenge Trump more forcefully than the Republican Party establishment — by limiting his access to the support and data that would help him translate his lead in the polls into a sustainable White House campaign.

The Koch operation has spurned entreaties from the Trump campaign to purchase state-of-the-art data and analytics services from a Koch-backed political tech firm called i360, and also turned down a request to allow Trump to speak at an annual grass-roots summit next month in Columbus, Ohio, sponsored by the Koch-backed group Americans for Prosperity….

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Note….

For more on the Koch Brothers Operation that has a goal of revaling the Obama data operation in the 2012 election….Here.

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The Atlantic Looks at the NY Times Hillary emails story mess up…

The piece passes blame on a system where government (political axes to grind?) people shop around stories…

And how reporter eat them up…..

But points to editors, whose job is to make sure the stories are in fact TRUE, by checking and checking on the information…And…If they get wrong?

Owning up to that…..

They should...Since they REGULARLY go after people for making mistakes….

One might argue that this should make the paper and its editors especially sensitive to avoiding overreach and inaccuracies in stories about the Clintons. I won’t make that claim. Rather, the paper of record needs to be deeply sensitive at all times to inaccurate reporting and needs to respond with more than the usual buried corrections. The Times’ editorial page rightly holds public figures accountable for malfeasance and misfeasance. The same standards should apply to The Times. This story demands more than a promise to do better the next time, and more than a shrug, as Matt Purdy and Dean Baquet gave, with Purdy blaming the sources and Baquet saying of his reporters, “I am not sure what they could have done differently on that.”

I am. Holding a story until you are sure you have the facts—as other reporters did, with, it seems, “government officials” shopping the story around—or waiting until you can actually read the documents instead of relying on your good sources, so to speak, providing misleading and slanted details, is what they could have done differently. If reporters are hot to publish their scoops, it is up to editors, in Washington and New York, to put the brakes on…

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Hillary Clinton on Policy…Wiki…

Wikipedia has a good piece on how the probable 2016 Democratic Presidential nominee feels about a host of issues…

As described by herself….

On July 23, 2007, Hillary Clinton described her own political philosophy, in a CNN/YouTube Democratic primary debate; in response to the question of whether she would describe herself as a liberal, she said that: “I consider myself a modern progressive, someone who believes strongly in individual rights and freedoms, who believes that we are better as a society when we’re working together and when we find ways to help those who may not have all the advantages in life get the tools they need to lead a more productive life for themselves and their family. So I consider myself a proud modern American progressive, and I think that’s the kind of philosophy and practice that we need to bring back to American politics.”

As described by others….
H. A. Goodman of The Huffington Post described Hillary Clinton as “neither a liberal, nor a true conservative. Rather, she’s an electable Democratic candidate who leans to the right. She’s the Democratic version of Mitt Romney. President Hillary Clinton will be a conservative Barack Obama and a somewhat liberal George Bush.”

Chris Matthews of Hardball with Chris Matthews described Hillary Clinton as “more of a conservative in a sense of more of a traditional politician from the center, center.”

The Wiki piece goes on to list specific policy positions HERE.

image…casino.org

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POLITICAL ROUNDUP FOR JULY 29, 2015…More Trump….RRH Elections…

President:

Hillary: The woman who was in charge of releasing Lois Lerner “lost” e-mails at the IRS was hired by the State Department  to “vet” Hillary’s e-mails! I guess she has the right experience for the cover up job.

Trump: According to allegations in a 1993 biography, Donald Trump “raped” his ex-wife Ivana Trump in a post scalp reduction surgery rage. Trump denies ever having scalp reduction surgery while Trump’s special counsel Michael Cohen defended his boss by explaining to The Daily Beast that ““You cannot rape your spouse”. Cohen also threatened to sue the Daily Beast “for every penny you still don’t have” and “to mess your life up… for as long as you’re on this frickin’ planet…” if they published a story with Mr. Trump’s name in it and the word “rape”. In a 1993 interview with Newsday Trump addressed the allegations in  Lost Tycoon: The Many Lives of Donald J. Trump by saying  “It’s incorrect and done by a guy without much talent… He is a guy that is an unattractive guy who is a vindictive and jealous person.” Trump currently has a 12 point lead in the latest Monmouth University New Hampshire poll.

Party for Socialism and Liberation: The Party for Socialism and Liberation has announced their presidential ticket for 2016. The party has nominated communist activist Gloria La Riva for President and Eugene Puryear for Vice President. This will be the 7th time La Riva’s has appeared on a national ticket. There is no word on what La Riva will do if fellow socialist Bernie Sanders wins the Democrat nomination for President.

Presidential candidates on marijuana:  The Marijuana Policy Project announced their grades for the various Presidential candidates on the issue of marijuana legalization and reform. Rand Paul received the highest grade while Rick Santorum and Chis Cristie got the lowest score….

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Daily Kos Morning Digest 7/29/15… Why Florida’s Senate primary might soon see some serious horse-play

Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Jeff Singer

Florida Republican Rep. Ted Yoho

attribution: Ted Yoho Facebook
Republican Rep. Ted Yoho is reportedly mulling a Senate campaign

Leading Off: FL-Sen: Thanks to Donald Trump, it’s been hard for GOP primaries at any other level of politics to earn the distinction of being batshit hilarious, but Florida’s Senate race might just stand a chance. That’s because Rep. Ted Yoho, the large animal veterinarian who unexpectedly birthed his way into Congress via a primary challenge to an incumbent Republican back in 2012, is reportedly considering a bid. That’s not from the horse’s mouth (an orifice Yoho undoubtedly has great familiarity with), but rather a “supporter close to Yoho” who gave several quotes to Sunshine State News.

If Yoho were to enter, he’d join Reps. Ron DeSantis, David Jolly, and (probably) Jeff Miller, plus Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera. But it’s the matchup with DeSantis that would really send the feathers flying: DeSantis is a Club for Growth golden child, while Yoho’s demonstrated his free-range qualities by voting for himself as speaker of the House. (Even though the supporter speaking on Yoho’s behalf insists redistricting isn’t prompting this newfound interest, Matthew Isbell speculates that’s exactly what’s at play here.)

However, as enjoyable as it would be to see these two bighorn sheep crash heads, it would likely diminish the chance that either would earn the Republican nomination. That would make it tougher for Democrats to pick up this seat (they’d rather not face the likes of Jolly), but in politics, there’s only so much that’s under your control. For all the rest that’s not, all you can do is sit back and chuckle at the barnyard antics.

Senate:

CO-Sen: We haven’t seen much polling out of Colorado, because the GOP still doesn’t really have a legit candidate to take on Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet next year, but Quinnipiac did just test the incumbent’s job approval rating. Bennet manages a decent 41-34 score, but oddly, only 32 percent of the same respondents say they think he deserves re-election while 40 percent say he doesn’t. Why voters would say they approve of a guy but don’t think he should win another term is very puzzling, but Quinnipiac has often shown strange gaps like this….

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