Open Thread for July 31, 2015….The Bookies have Jeb Bush 7/5 for the GOP Nomination…

Just so you know …..

GOP Nomination

Jeb Bush 7/5
Paul Ryan 25/1
Mike Pence 33/1
Marco Rubio 7/2
Rob Portman 25/1
Sarah Palin 33/1
Scott Walker 4/1
Michael Bloomberg 25/1
Eric Cantor 40/1
Donald Trump 8/1
Ted Cruz 25/1
Ron Paul 50/1
Rand Paul 9/1
Condoleezza Rice 33/1
David Petraeus 66/1
Ben Carson 14/1
Rick Santorum 33/1
Michele Bachmann 66/1
Chris Christie 16/1
Bobby Jindal 33/1
John McCain 66/1

Democratic Nomination

Hillary is 1/6

Sanders 8/1

O’Malley 25/1

2016 Presidential Election

Hillary Clinton Even

Jeb Bush 10/3

Marco Rubio 12/1

Scott Walker 12/1

Donald Trump 20/1

Source….

mac
Guest

I’m not sure the media is exactly hero worshiping him.

But it is very interesting how quickly and big things are changing in the media at the moment. From disgust and dismissal, to baffled acknowledgement, to slow re-examination and adjusted attitudes.

But this is also driven by the numbers. They are not as expected, not even by Trump I think.

mac
Guest

“I think just about anybody could duplicate that…”

I think you’re personal dislike of Trump is clouding your thinking again. Lots of people would just waste that kind of money, being spoilt and brought up in a bubble of wealth, and ask daddy for more.

But I’m starting to find this entertaining too, watching the gushes of word salads every time someone mentions Trump, Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders!

Zreebs
Guest

Of James’s 1000s of readers from all over the world, perhaps some Trump supporter can tell us what is going on so that I can better understand.

mac
Guest

Gosh it’s tempting to say “misunderestimated”.

mac
Guest

Morning Joe is talking up Trump like a lovefest right now.

Even Krauthammer has flipped – admitting he underestimated this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-H4tQ_Lh8c (Aug 3rd)

And James,
you gotta give Trump two things:

1. He has run a brilliant campaign in the first 7 weeks. (And btw. his twitter account is very engaging and effective. And he spends very little money on air time, almost nothing it seems.)

2. He’s done very well in business, good in television, and now his beginnings in politics are successful.

My Name Is jack
Guest
The problem with your political party thing James is that these facts have now been out there for several weeks with no discernible effect on Trumps popularity. Ironically, he has actually been doing better. Once again I think it’s the nature of those supporting him. They’re angry at everyone,including the Republicans. Indeed, several pollsters have commented that one reason Republicans typically rank lower than Democrats in favorability polls is that many self identified Republicans ” disapprove” of the Republican Party. Accordingly,it’s not hard to see… Read more »
Democratic Socialist Dave
Guest

Richard Schweiker, the dovish liberal Republican Senator from Pennsylvania who was Reagan’s running-mate at the 1976 GOP Convention, has died.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/obituaries/2015/08/03/richard-schweiker-liberal-republican-who-served-served-reagan-cabinet-dies/jTap5k1fcecBetrshCc4ON/story.html

Democratic Socialist Dave
Guest

On our local public TV talk show, “A Lively Experiment” (reference explained on request), one of the panellists said that our ex-Governor (B.A. Brown, Classics) had vaulted with vertiginous celerity to the dizzying heights of two per centum.

Zreebs
Guest

All joking aside, I don’t think it is fair to conclude that someone floundering in the primary polls is a bad candidate. I recall, Scott, that 4 years ago you suggested that Jon Huntsman was a good candidate.

Scott P
Guest

I may have been generous assuming Chafee is registering a full percentage point.

Zreebs
Guest

Is Lincoln Chafee up to 1% in the polls?

Democratic Socialist Dave
Guest

Did anyone try to use Ronald Reagan’s liberal Democratic past (ADA!!!) against him in the Republican races for governor and president?

Scott P
Guest

Yeah most people don’t care about whether or not a candidate has been a life long member of a political party. If people like you they like you.

Lincoln Chaffee isn’t floundering at 1 or 2% among Democrats because he’s only been one for a few years. He’s floundering because he’s not a good candidate.

Democratic Socialist Dave
Guest
In 1951, Sen. Robert Taft was “Mr. Republican”; the politics of Gen. Eisenhower, as a career professional military man, were a cipher. Some Democrats wanted Ike to run for their party’s presidential nominee in 1948. But Ike won the GOP nomination and the general in 1952. The former political affinities and affiliations of Hillary Clinton, Lincoln Chafee, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Leon Panetta, Ronald Reagan and (maybe) Lindsey Graham are of some interest, but they add very little in addition to what they now believe… Read more »
My Name Is jack
Guest

Of course it’s no big issue

Just one of the many insignificant thing James harps on all the time.

I mean as to Trump,let’s not forget he is the Leading candidate for the Republican nomination among REPUBLICAN voters.

Making these rather esoteric arguments bout who is and isn’t aDemocrat or Republican is really much ado about nothing.

Democratic Socialist Dave
Guest
Trial heats as of late July: McClatchy-Marist Poll. July 22-28, 2015. N=964 registered voters nationwide. “If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and [see below], the Republican?” Each match-up asked of approx. half the sample. 49-43 Jeb Bush 54-38 Donald Trump 44-29 Bush (R) – 20 Trump (ind.) 47-42 Marco Rubio 48-41 Scott Walker 47-40 Rick Perry 48-43 Rand Paul 49-40 Ted Cruz 50-40 Chris Christie 49-39 John Kasich 50-41 Mike Huckabee… Read more »
Keith
Guest
I thought diplomatic relations with Cuba weren’t going to be restored because it might hurt Hillary and the Cuban Senator from New Jersey might be upset — guess not. This was always the plan from the White House – I said so all along. Why are we still talking about Trump or Sanders not being from their respective parties? It is clear that one gives butt loads of money to the GOP and one caucuses with the Democrats – in my book, that makes them… Read more »
Democratic Socialist Dave
Guest
CBS News Poll. July 10-14, 2015. N=1,002 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3. . “Do you favor or oppose re-establishing U.S. diplomatic relations with Cuba?” . Favor Oppose Unsure/No answer % % % ALL 58 24 18 Republicans 44 41 16 Democrats 72 13 15 Independents 55 23 22 . “Do you favor or oppose the United States government ending its trade embargo against Cuba?” . Favor Oppose Unsure/ No answer % % % ALL 54 28 18 Republicans 52 35 14 Democrats 62… Read more »
My Name Is jack
Guest

That little “technical” thing as you call it certainly isn’t “important” to those now supporting him.

My Name Is jack
Guest

An “issue” that really no longer exists except in the minds of Right Wing Republicans like Rubio and yes the so called “moderate” Jeb Bush.

The American public has spoken.

The embargo will either end officially or unofficially .

Bottom line,NO ONE is going to be prosecuted for making deals in Cuba.

Democratic Socialist Dave
Guest
Pew Research Center. July 14-20, 2015. N=2,002 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 2.5. . “All in all, do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba?” . Approve Disapprove Unsure/Refused % % % 7/14-20/2015 73 20 7 1/7-11/2015 63 28 9 . “And, would you favor or oppose the U.S. ending its trade embargo against Cuba, which would allow U.S. companies to do business in Cuba and Cuban companies to do business in the U.S.?” . Favor Oppose Unsure/Refused %… Read more »
Keith
Guest

I thought Trump was a terrorist?? Isn’t that the party line these days?

My Name Is jack
Guest

He says he’s a Republican .

He’s running for the Republican nomination.

He’s the LEADING candidate among Republican voters for their nomination.

Who the HELL are YOU to say he isn’t a Republican?

Thank you C.Your spirit lives on in James!

My Name Is jack
Guest

Good point.

Yes ,I have seen Trump even mockingly refer to how the Establishment Republicans used to court him and his money.

Contrary to James corny assertion ,and as anyone here who knows of my true feelings expressed here on thousands of occasions ,I am not of Trump or ANY other Republican for that matter,but I am enjoying the HELL out of how he is sticking it to the Republicans and his a significant part of their “base” is eating it up.