Daily Kos Morning Digest 7/31/15… A new poll gives Jack Conway a small edge in Kentucky

 (Going long here. today…)
Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Jeff Singer

Kentucky Democrat Jack Conway

Kentucky Democrat Jack Conway has a 3-point edge in SurveyUSA’s new poll

Leading Off: KY-Gov: Kentucky’s gubernatorial race is only a little more than three months away, but there’s been a dearth of polling here so far. But SurveyUSA comes to our rescue and finds a tight race, with Democrat Jack Conway posting a 45-42 lead against Republican Matt Bevin. SurveyUSA’s last poll from mid-May gave Conway a stronger 48-37 edge, but it’s not too surprising to see a shift now that the ugly Republican primary is over.

When independent Drew Curtis is added to the mix, Conway’s lead increases to 43-38, with Curtis taking 5. Curtis, the founder of the website Fark, leans to the left, but so far he seems to be attracting more conservatives who may just not be sold on Bevin yet. Curtis is still collecting signatures, and we should know around mid-August if he’ll make the general election ballot.

We’ve only seen one other independent poll since the May GOP primary, a late June PPP survey that gave Bevin a 38-35 edge. One important difference between the two polls is outgoing Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear’s approval rating: PPP gave him a good but not great 43-35 score, while SurveyUSA gives him a much better 51-33 mark. PPP usually gives elected officials lower ratings than other pollsters, so there may be nothing else to this. However, Conway will definitely benefit if more conservative voters see Beshear’s tenure as a success and are willing to pull the lever for another Democrat….


CA-Sen: Rep. Xavier Becerra, the last notable California Democrat still considering a bid for Senate, has unsurprisingly said no. Becerra had raised very little money this year, and, more importantly, he’s the fourth-ranking Democrat in the House, with good prospects for advancement. (At age 57, he could stick around long enough become speaker one day.) That leaves state Attorney General Kamala Harris and Rep. Loretta Sanchez to duke it out on the Democratic side, though Harris has led in fundraising, endorsements, and polling. Republicans won’t be able to contest this seat in a meaningful way barring a Chicxulub-level event.

FL-Sen, 01: This is a genuine shocker. Veteran GOP Rep. Jeff Miller, who had done just about everything there is to do in order to get ready for a statewide campaign short of a formal announcement, has decided not to run for Senate after all. Miller had amped up his fundraising and begun staffing up, but recently he promised he wouldn’t declare his plans until “after August.” We thought it was traditional gamesmanship from a pol who’d made up his mind but, for whatever reason, wasn’t yet ready to dive in, and it may well have been, because something evidently happened to alter Miller’s timetable so dramatically.

The possibilities for speculation are endless….

IL-Sen: So no, obviously, GOP Sen. Mark Kirk isn’t going to drop his bid for re-election, despite the wishes of a top Republican donor who’s frustrated watching as Kirk continues to make stupid and offensive comments on the campaign trail. But D.C. Republicans apparently recognize that Kirk’s problem is indeed serious, though they don’t seem to be getting through to the senator. We say that because they’re evidently trying to use the papers to dislodge Kirk’s foot from his own mouth….

IN-Sen: For just the second time this cycle, the powerful Club for Growth—which might be best thought of as the establishment wing of the tea party—has endorsed a candidate in a competitive GOP Senate primary. On Thursday, they gave their backing to Rep. Marlin Stutzman in Indiana; a few months ago, they also got behind Rep. Ron DeSantis in Florida. The Club’s move makes sense: Stutzman has long practiced their brand of politics, earning a 93 percent lifetime rating on the group’s scorecard. By contrast, gripes the Club, Stutzman’s best-funded Republican opponent, Rep. Todd Young, has an “anemic” 68 percent score.

Stutzman’s not the only one who will be pleased at this development: Democrats will be, too. Stutzman is by far the most extreme candidate in the race, and he’s the likeliest to repeat Richard Mourdock’s follies. That would give Team Blue an opening despite Indiana’s Republican propensities, but ex-Rep. Baron Hill, the only Democrat running, will have to step it up considerably on the fundraising front to be able to take advantage of such an opportunity.

MD-Sen: While Baltimore pols—chiefly Reps. Elijah Cummings and Dutch Ruppersberger—keep waiting and waiting in the wings, Rep. Chris Van Hollen keeps snacking on their lake trout. Van Hollen’s earned a number of endorsements from prominent Baltimore County figures, and he just added his first from Baltimore city: Del. Maggie McIntosh, who chairs the state House Appropriations Committee. The Baltimore Sun describes her as one of the most powerful women in Maryland politics and suggests her decision might open the floodgates for other leaders to follow suit.

NC-Sen: After striking out all cycle long, Democrats have finally found someone who might—just might—be interested in taking on GOP Sen. Richard Burr next year. State Rep. Duane Hall says he’s forming an exploratory committee but cautions that he’s “not running for anything” just yet. Hall does seem to understand the parameters of the race, saying that Burr can be unseated “in a year with a strong presidential candidate.” Basically, in other words, Hall would need a year like 2008, when a powerful force at the top of the ticket helped an otherwise unknown state legislator (Kay Hagan) upset an incumbent Republican senator. The odds are long, but they’re not zero, and it’s good that Hall grasps that.

PA-Sen: It gets late early around here—and it seems to get late earlier and earlier every cycle. By that we mean that serious television ad spending has already cranked up in several key Senate races around the country, when we’re still 15 months out from Election Day. Mostly it’s been from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and it probably can’t be sustained straight through November of 2016. But here’s another big buy, also on behalf of a Republican senator, this time from the Koch-backed Concerned Veterans of America. The spot features a Navy vet (interestingly, a woman) praising Pat Toomey for his work on behalf of veterans. Politico says CVA is spending $1.5 million on the ad….


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Political Roundup for July 31st, 2015…Polls…RRH Elections


Quinnipiac: Quinn polled both primaries and the general, and got the expected results. Clinton is up in the D primary by a ton and over 50%, Trump is up by about 10 in the GOP primaries, and every Democrat beats Trump in the general with all the other match-ups within the margin of error.

GOP-1: A Morning Consultant Survey poll has Trump at 24% to Bush’s 13% and Walker’s 9%.

GOP-2: Reuters has Trump at 25% to Bush’s 12%.


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Iran asks…Why don’t the Israeli’s give up THEIR nukes?


But he makes a point about Nuclear Non-Proliferation….

“Today, in light of the Vienna deal, it is high time that the nuclear ‘haves’ remedied the gap by adopting serious disarmament measures and reinforcing the non-proliferation regime,” Iran’s top diplomat added, referring to the Non-Proliferation Treaty which established a framework for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons in 1970.

Israel’s government has never publicly admitted to possessing a nuclear weapon, even though most analysts believe the country developed nuclear technology in the 1960s and now has a significant number of nuclear warheads.

Zarif denounced Israel’s “absurd and alarmist campaign against the Iranian nuclear deal” despite of the country’s “undeclared nuclear arsenal and a declared disdain towards non-proliferation.”


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The Fed’s STILL look at the Marijuana Industry as illegal…

Don’t matter WHAT the state’s says…..

Banking regulators just said no to a financial institution that aims to be the first to serve the expanding marijuana industry in Colorado.

The Fourth Corner Credit Union in Denver applied in November to the Federal Reserve for a “master account,” which would allow it to interact with other financial institutions and open its doors to some of the hundreds of state-licensed marijuana businesses in Colorado.

Although recreational marijuana has been legalized in Colorado, it is still illegal on the federal level, discouraging most traditional banks from working with pot businesses.

The Fed’s branch in Kansas City, which has been reviewing the application, privately informed the Fourth Corner Credit Union earlier in July that it had not been approved for a master account, the credit union said on Thursday…..



This sin’t gonna change UNLESS Congress changes the Laws on the books….

Even the President saying he won’t go after people could change with a new President every four years…

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DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz ducks the question…“What’s the difference between a Democrat and a socialist? “

Ron Gunzburger

Kinda embarrassing #2: DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz on MSNBC can’t (or won’t) answer the question: What is the difference between a Democrat and a socialist (to wit: Hillary vs Bernie)?

Sure is….

And she shows the problem with us Democrats…She doesn’t REALLY KNOW what she stands for…Ask a GOPer and they will give ya a straight up list….Democrats help everyone…GOPer’s don’t…Simple….

Socialists are Dem’s X ten or 20…..

Chris Matthews chatted with DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz tonight and things got awkward fast when they dived into talking about Bernie Sanders.

Matthews asked Wasserman-Schultz if, even if he loses, Sanders would have a place at the DNC convention, seeing as how he’s really popular with the base and could fire up a Democratic audience before the election.

She said he should get to speak, but Matthews kept prodding away to see if he would be allowed to speak in primetime instead of “when nobody’s watching.”

Wasserman-Schultz talked up his “progressive populist message” that people like, when Matthews asked her point-blank, “What’s the difference between a Democrat and a socialist? I used to think there was a big difference. What do you think it is?”

Wasserman-Schultz ducked the question, but Matthews pressed her and said, “You’re the chairman of the Democratic Party. Tell me what’s the difference between you and a socialist.”

She insisted that the bigger debate is the gulf between the Democrats and the Republicans on the issues….

More and the Video…Here.

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Hillary supports a higher Min Wage….

She has recently given the impression that she supports legialtion from Democrats in Congress for at least a $12 Federal Min wage and letting states go even higher to the $15 level which Senatro Bernie Sanders has supported…

Clinton, the front-runner in the Democratic presidential primary, has backed the concept of a wage hike on the campaign trail without specifying a figure — a reticence that’s been criticized by her closest rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who’s pushing for a $15 rate.

But on Thursday, after meeting with leaders of the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO), Clinton got as close as she’s come to endorsing a specific level, hinting that a $12 minimum wage proposal sponsored by Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.) might offer a viable path forward.

“Patty Murray is one of the most effective legislators in the Senate bar none, and whatever she advocates I pay a lot of attention to because she knows how to get it through the Congress,” Clinton told reporters. “Let’s not just do it for the sake of having a higher number out there, but let’s actually get behind a proposal that has a chance of succeeding. And I have seen Patty over the years be able to do just that.”

Earlier in the press conference, Clinton advocated an unspecified increase in the federal minimum wage — which has stood at $7.25 per hour since 2009 — and then allowing states and local governments to make adjustments as they see fit based on regional cost-of-living variations….


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The WashPost Fix is out with a new 2016 GOP Presidential ratings list…

Donald Trump is NOT on top….

…..On one hand, Trump is way ahead in most national polls on the primary race and even leads (or comes close to leading) in surveys conducted in early-voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

On the other, he is Donald Trump.

(The last time I ranked the 2016 GOP field — June 12 — Trump was barely a blip on the radar and didn’t crack the top 10.)

I also put the Trump question to the five senior Republican strategists who aren’t working for one of the 17 GOPers running for the nomination currently. (I kid; there are at least 10 unaligned GOP operatives.) What I got back from that group surprised me: They were much more bullish on Trump’s chances than I expected — with several arguing that Trump absolutely belonged in the top tier.

I won’t spoil the surprise as to where The Donald wound up. You have to scroll down for that. Remember that the candidates are ranked by their likelihood of winding up as the Republican nominee next year. And, remember too that there are a lot of months between now and then. So, these ratings can and will change….


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Questions on the Texas Trooper who pulled over Sandra Bland….

There is going to be a bigger push for cops to ‘tone down’ their interactions with public…

That’s a Good thing….

The more imoportant question in this case is …..If she wrote that she was suicidal…..

Why didn’t the jail guards check her more often?

The head of the Texas state police department faced fierce grilling by lawmakers here Thursday over the confrontational behavior of a trooper in the arrest of Sandra Bland, who was found hanged in her Waller County jail cell this month, three days after she was taken into custody after a routine traffic stop.

The hearing by the House County Affairs Committee was the start of a legislative inquiry into Ms. Bland’s arrest and subsequent death, which have attracted international attention and added momentum to a national debate over the treatment of black people by white police officers.

The committee chairman, Garnet Coleman, who like Ms. Bland is black, criticized the Texas Department of Public Safety for what he called a pattern of racial intolerance and described the behavior of the trooper who arrested her, Brian T. Encinia, who is white, as a “catalyst” for Ms. Bland’s death…..


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The fight for the last FOX main GOP debate spot….

The first serious fight of the 2016  Republican Primary season is coming up 5 months BEFORE even one vote is cast….

The whittling down process is beginning for the 18 Republican ‘name’ candidates….

With just six days to go before the inaugural Republican primary debate, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry are locked in a three-way scramble for the last two podiums on the main stage.

The fight for entry into Fox News’ primetime event — and the fear of being relegated to the early-evening undercard debate — has forced all three candidates to step up their media campaigns, courting Fox News and conservative radio outlets in an effort to curry last-minute support before the polling window closes on August 4….


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Open Thread for July 31, 2015….The Bookies have Jeb Bush 7/5 for the GOP Nomination…

Just so you know …..

GOP Nomination

Jeb Bush 7/5
Paul Ryan 25/1
Mike Pence 33/1
Marco Rubio 7/2
Rob Portman 25/1
Sarah Palin 33/1
Scott Walker 4/1
Michael Bloomberg 25/1
Eric Cantor 40/1
Donald Trump 8/1
Ted Cruz 25/1
Ron Paul 50/1
Rand Paul 9/1
Condoleezza Rice 33/1
David Petraeus 66/1
Ben Carson 14/1
Rick Santorum 33/1
Michele Bachmann 66/1
Chris Christie 16/1
Bobby Jindal 33/1
John McCain 66/1

Democratic Nomination

Hillary is 1/6

Sanders 8/1

O’Malley 25/1

2016 Presidential Election

Hillary Clinton Even

Jeb Bush 10/3

Marco Rubio 12/1

Scott Walker 12/1

Donald Trump 20/1


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First Class Stamps will be going DOWN in price in April 2016…

They don’t know how much down….

But it seems the Postal Service got an increase up to .49 in 2014 as part of a deal that calls for the price to go back down due to the economy ….

Best guess ?….

Maybe .2 cents?

Stamp prices jumped three cents to 49 cents in January 2014 after postal officials, already financially strapped because the Internet is killing mail volume, said they needed to recoup billions of dollars they lost during the recession. The 4.3 percent increase came on top of the customary 1.7 percent postage prices have risen to adjust for inflation.

But regulators set a cap on the amount of revenue the Postal Service could recoup with the higher prices. After legal challenges from the industry representing bulk mailers (who argued against the emergency rates) and the Postal Service (which argued that they should be permanent), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled in June that rate hike should not become permanent.

The aftereffects of the recession have become “the new normal,” the ruling said — and the Postal Service must adjust to that reality….



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India will become the nation with the most people in less than 15 years

…from the Washington Post….

India is poised to become the world’s most populous country six years earlier than expected, according to revised population projections released Wednesday by the United Nations.

A new report by the population division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs says China and India have about 1.38 billion and 1.31 billion people, respectively. After 2022, when both are expected to have about 1.4 billion, India’s population will continue rising and China’s will “remain fairly constant” until the 2030s, at which point it will begin to “slightly decrease.”

That will occur six years earlier than the organization projected two years ago, when it acknowledged 2028 as the year India would likely pass China. India, which accounts for 18 percent of the world’s population, is projected to reach 1.5 billion people in 2030 and 1.7 billion in 2050….



The US has about 323 million people…It ranks third one the list….

Here for other countries populations….

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Trump supporters…Forget the Money…He’s one of us…..



Mitt Romney got in trouble for having , like $250 million….

Some people where trying to sell the idea that the Clinton’s where NOT regular people due to the fact that are worth about $55 million….

Now Donlad Trump comes along says he’s worth about $10 BILLION (most experts revise that down to about $3 Billion)….

And people are DISREGARDING the Money thing for this GUY???


What makes someone say they want Donald Trump to be the 45th president of the United States?

Bloomberg Politics’ John Heilemann went to New Hampshire to try to answer that question — sitting down with 12 people professing to support the Donald in 2016. The entirety of the focus group — or at least the part Bloomberg has released today — is worth watching. But one comment — from a woman named Jane — stood out to me. Here it is:

He’s like one of us. He may be a millionaire … but beside the money issue he’s still in tune with what everyone is wanting.



Donald J. Trump has been called many things in his decades-long run as a public figure. I am betting that “one of us” is not one of them. This is, after all, someone who at every turn professes how wealthy he is ($10 billion!!), how smart he is (“really smart”) and who lives a life — married to a supermodel, star of his own reality TV show (until recently) — that couldn’t be further from the everyday life of the average person in the U.S….


Here’s ANOTHER look at this focus group…..

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While Donald Trump makes noise…Hillary and Jeb will be looking for Black votes…


Both Hillary Clinton AND Jeb Bush, in a prview of next falls election are going to address the National Urbam League, the Black organization….

They ARE both running for respective parties nomination, but make no mistake….

They ARE both begging to run for the general election next November….

Hillary WILL have the black vote….But Bush will be trying to peel off some of that vote, and will try to get more of Latino/Hispanic Vote….

( Democrats Bernie Sanders, Martin O’Malley and Republican Ben Carson are also penned in to attend the event)

For Mrs. Clinton, support from black voters is a strength she is trying to lock down in the face of a surprising surge from Mr. Sanders. The independent senator from Vermont, who caucuses with the Democrats, has caught fire with many white liberals.

For Mr. Bush, whom polls show with scant African-American support, it’s an opportunity to change minds and present himself as a Republican eager to broaden his party’s tent—an appeal that could help with voters of all races.

In the 2016 race, the lopsided support and huge turnout for Mr. Obama among black voters is not a given, said Marc Morial, president of the National Urban League. “People may look conventionally and say the African-American vote is reliably Democratic, but the issue really has to do with levels of motivation and levels of turnout,” he said.

A change in turnout could create some opportunities for Republicans in key states if they can broaden their support even marginally with minority voters, even if a big majority of them still vote Democratic….



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FOX News GOP Presidential Primary Debate…What is Donald Trump gonna be?

Will he be a shrill for the audiance and the camera’s?

Will he be a serious political candiadte for Office…


Will he just be dodging hard questions from the others …

At some point there are those who will want concrete policy answers from the guy….

He boasts about spending no time preparing for the event, which will be broadcast on Fox News on Aug. 6, even as his aides have put together briefing papers for him on policy and pungent lines of attack. He already knows plenty about the issues, he says, so much that, rather than cramming, he will be in Scotland over the weekend at a golf tournament on one of his courses.

And after weeks of slashing at his opponents in interviews, he refuses to say whom he may single out when the 10 leading primary contenders stand side by side. “I have great respect for some of the candidates,” Mr. Trump said in an interview. “I don’t have great respect for others.”

He cannot know who will try to embarrass him. Then again, he suggested, he may just choose targets of opportunity. “It depends on the feel,” he said. “It depends on what’s taking place.”

No candidate is more likely to wing it than the mercurial Mr. Trump. But the man who read Senator Lindsey Graham’s cellphone number aloud on a South Carolina stage has set the bar fairly high for himself to do something that would qualify as outrageous.

He is likely to arrive in Cleveland ready with cutting “observations” about each of his rivals, according to a person briefed on Mr. Trump’s debate preparations. (A recent example: He said former Gov. Rick Perry of Texas “put glasses on so people will think he’s smart.” He added, “It just doesn’t work.”)

Mr. Trump’s mantra, in his books and in his paid speeches, is to counterattack harder when anyone throws a punch……


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Trump campaign hires a political director …..

Most campaigns have one when they start…..

Six weeks AFTER he decideed  to run ?

The Donald gets someone to actually run a campaign….(It’s no longer a one man band?)

The campaign is talking to the RNC about reaching out to Republican voters nationwide….


Does this guy actually know HOW to run for President?

Trump’s campaign also announced Thursday that it had hired a political director. Taken together, two things become clear from this news: 1) The Trump campaign launched well before it was ready to from an organizational standpoint, and 2) Trump, who may not have expected to so swiftly become the national polling frontrunner, now appears to be taking his candidacy quite seriously.

Of course, there are limits for a candidate like Trump: On Thursday he was in Scotland to watch the Women’s British Open.

The RNC’s offer to share its file is especially significant in light of the fact that the political operation run by Charles and David Koch, Freedom Partners, has reportedly denied Trump access to its voter file and user interface, called i360….


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